2018 article

Towards Adaptive Support for Anticipatory Thinking

PROCEEDINGS OF THE TECHNOLOGY, MIND, AND SOCIETY CONFERENCE (TECHMINDSOCIETY'18).

co-author countries: United States of America 🇺🇸
author keywords: Anticipatory thinking; cognitive process; assessment; training; adaptive technology
Source: Web Of Science
Added: November 18, 2019

Adaptive training and support technologies have been used to improve training and performance in a number of domains. However, limited work on adaptive training has examined anticipatory thinking, which is the deliberate, divergent exploration and analysis of relevant futures to avoid surprise. Anticipatory thinking engages the process of imagining how uncertainties impact the future, helps identify leading indicators and causal dependencies of future scenarios, and complements forecasting, which focuses on assessing the likelihood of outcomes. It is particularly important for intelligence analysis, mission planning, and strategic forecasting, wherein practitioners apply prospective sense-making, scenario planning, and other methodologies to identify possible options and their effects during decision making processes. However, there is currently no underlying cognitive theory supporting specific anticipatory thinking methodologies, no adaptive technologies to support their training, and no existing measures to assess their efficacy.