2021 journal article

Nothing in Evolution Makes Sense Except in the Light of Biology

BioScience.

Martha Burford Reiskind

author keywords: evolution; predictability; quantitative genetics; adaptive evolution; population genetics; reintegrating biology
TL;DR: The questions when, why, and if the outcome of future evolution is predictable are asked and factors that generate unpredictability are identified, the data that might be required to make predictions at some level of precision or at a specific timescale, and the intellectual and translational value of understanding when prediction is or is not possible are identified. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
13. Climate Action (Web of Science; OpenAlex)
Source: ORCID
Added: February 14, 2021

Abstract A key question in biology is the predictability of the evolutionary process. If we can correctly predict the outcome of evolution, we may be better equipped to anticipate and manage species’ adaptation to climate change, habitat loss, invasive species, or emerging infectious diseases, as well as improve our basic understanding of the history of life on Earth. In the present article, we ask the questions when, why, and if the outcome of future evolution is predictable. We first define predictable and then discuss two conflicting views: that evolution is inherently unpredictable and that evolution is predictable given the ability to collect the right data. We identify factors that generate unpredictability, the data that might be required to make predictions at some level of precision or at a specific timescale, and the intellectual and translational value of understanding when prediction is or is not possible.