@article{roberts_schlenker_eyer_2013, title={Agronomic Weather Measures in Econometric Models of Crop Yield with Implications for Climate Change}, volume={95}, ISSN={["1467-8276"]}, DOI={10.1093/ajae/aas047}, abstractNote={American Journal of Agricultural EconomicsVolume 95, Issue 2 p. 236-243 ASSA Meeting Invited Paper Session Agronomic Weather Measures in Econometric Models of Crop Yield with Implications for Climate Change Michael J. Roberts, Corresponding Author Michael J. Roberts [email protected] ([email protected])Search for more papers by this authorWolfram Schlenker, Wolfram SchlenkerSearch for more papers by this authorJonathan Eyer, Jonathan EyerSearch for more papers by this author Michael J. Roberts, Corresponding Author Michael J. Roberts [email protected] ([email protected])Search for more papers by this authorWolfram Schlenker, Wolfram SchlenkerSearch for more papers by this authorJonathan Eyer, Jonathan EyerSearch for more papers by this author First published: 22 May 2012 https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aas047Citations: 96 Michael J. Roberts is an associate professor and Jon Eyer ([email protected]) a graduate student in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics at North Carolina State University, and Wolfram Schlenker ([email protected]) is an assistant professor in the Department of Economics and School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University. We thank Kenneth Boote, David Lobell, Gerry Nelson, Cynthia Rosenzweig and editor David Hennessy for helpful comments and insights, and Marshall Burke for sharing projected changes from climate models. This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. SES-0962559. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation. This article was presented in an invited paper session at the 2012 ASSA annual meeting in Chicago, IL. The articles in these sessions are not subjected to the journals standard refereeing process. Read the full textAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL References Finger R. Evidence of slowing yield growth-the example of Swiss cereal yields Food Policy 2010 35 175– 182 Lobell D. Changes in diurnal temperature range and national cereal yields Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 2007 145 229– 238 Lobell D., Bonfils C., Duffy P. Climate change uncertainty for daily minimum and maximum temperatures: A model inter-comparison Geophysical Research Letters 2007 34 Lobell D., Schlenker W., Costa-Roberts J. Climate trends and global crop production since 1980 Science 2011 333 6042 616– 620 Muchow R., Sinclair T., Bennett J. Temperature and solar radiation effects on potential maize yield across locations Agronomy Journal 1990 82 338– 343 Roberts M., Schlenker W. Identifying Supply and Demand Elasticities of Agricultural Commodities: Implications for the US Ethanol Mandate 2010 NBER Working Paper No. 15921 Roberts M., Schlenker W. World supply and demand of food commodity calories American Journal of Agricultural Economics 2009 91 1235– 1242 Schlenker W., Roberts M. Nonlinear effects of weather on corn yields Review of Agricultural Economics 2006 28 3 391– 398 Schlenker W., Roberts M. Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to US crop yields under climate change Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2009 106 15594 Sinclair T. Precipitation: The Thousand-Pound Gorilla in Crop Response to Climate Change 2010 World Scientific Books Hackensack, NJ Tetens O. Uber einige meteorologische Begriffe Z. Geophys 1930 6 297– 309 Tweeten L., Thompson S. Long-term Global Agricultural Output Supply-Demand Balance and Real Farm and Food Prices Working Papers 2008 Vose R., Easterling D., Gleason B. Maximum and minimum temperature trends for the globe: An update through 2004 Geophysical Research Letters 2005 32 Citing Literature Volume95, Issue2January 2013Pages 236-243 ReferencesRelatedInformation}, number={2}, journal={AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={Roberts, Michael J. and Schlenker, Wolfram and Eyer, Jonathan}, year={2013}, month={Jan}, pages={236–243} }
 @article{roberts_schlenker_2013, title={Identifying Supply and Demand Elasticities of Agricultural Commodities: Implications for the US Ethanol Mandate}, volume={103}, ISSN={["1944-7981"]}, DOI={10.1257/aer.103.6.2265}, abstractNote={ We present a new framework to identify supply elasticities of storable commodities where past shocks are used as exogenous price shifters. In the agricultural context, past yield shocks change inventory levels and futures prices of agricultural commodities. We use our estimated elasticities to evaluate the impact of the 2009 Renewable Fuel Standard on commodity prices, quantities, and food consumers' surplus for the four basic staples: corn, rice, soybeans, and wheat. Prices increase 20 percent if one-third of commodities used to produce ethanol are recycled as feedstock, with a positively skewed 95 percent confidence interval that ranges from 14 to 35 percent. (JEL Q11, Q16, Q42, Q48) }, number={6}, journal={AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW}, author={Roberts, Michael J. and Schlenker, Wolfram}, year={2013}, month={Oct}, pages={2265–2295} }
 @inproceedings{roberts_schlenker_2012, title={Is agricultural production becoming more or less sensitive to extreme heat? Evidence from US corn and soybean yields}, booktitle={Design and implementation of us climate policy}, author={Roberts, M. J. and Schlenker, W.}, year={2012}, pages={271–285} }
 @article{urban_roberts_schlenker_lobell_2012, title={Projected temperature changes indicate significant increase in interannual variability of U.S. maize yields}, volume={112}, ISSN={["0165-0009"]}, DOI={10.1007/s10584-012-0428-2}, abstractNote={Climate change has the potential to be a source of increased variability if crops are more frequently exposed to damaging weather conditions. Yield variability could respond to a shift in the frequency of extreme events to which crops are susceptible, or if weather becomes more variable. Here we focus on the United States, which produces about 40% of the world’s maize, much of it in areas that are expected to see increased interannual variability in temperature. We combine a statistical crop model based on historical climate and yield data for 1950–2005 with temperature and precipitation projections from 15 different global circulation models. Holding current growing area constant, aggregate yields are projected to decrease by an average of 18% by 2030–2050 relative to 1980–2000 while the coefficient of variation of yield increases by an average of 47%. Projections from 13 out of 15 climate models result in an aggregate increase in national yield coefficient of variation, indicating that maize yields are likely to become more volatile in this key growing region without effective adaptation responses. Rising CO2 could partially dampen this increase in variability through improved water use efficiency in dry years, but we expect any interactions between CO2 and temperature or precipitation to have little effect on mean yield changes.}, number={2}, journal={CLIMATIC CHANGE}, author={Urban, Daniel and Roberts, Michael J. and Schlenker, Wolfram and Lobell, David B.}, year={2012}, month={May}, pages={525–533} }
 @article{fisher_hanemann_roberts_schlenker_2012, title={The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather: Comment}, volume={102}, ISSN={["1944-7981"]}, DOI={10.1257/aer.102.7.3749}, abstractNote={In a series of studies employing a variety of approaches, we have found that the potential impact of climate change on US agriculture is likely negative. Deschênes and Greenstone (2007) report dramatically different results based on regressions of agricultural profits and yields on weather variables. The divergence is explained by (1) missing and incorrect weather and climate data in their study; (2) their use of older climate change projections rather than the more recent and less optimistic projections from the Fourth Assessment Report; and (3) difficulties in their profit measure due to the confounding effects of storage.}, number={7}, journal={AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW}, author={Fisher, Anthony C. and Hanemann, W. Michael and Roberts, Michael J. and Schlenker, Wolfram}, year={2012}, month={Dec}, pages={3749–3760} }
 @article{schlenker_roberts_2009, title={Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to US crop yields under climate change}, volume={106}, ISSN={["0027-8424"]}, DOI={10.1073/pnas.0906865106}, abstractNote={The United States produces 41% of the world's corn and 38% of the world's soybeans. These crops comprise two of the four largest sources of caloric energy produced and are thus critical for world food supply. We pair a panel of county-level yields for these two crops, plus cotton (a warmer-weather crop), with a new fine-scale weather dataset that incorporates the whole distribution of temperatures within each day and across all days in the growing season. We find that yields increase with temperature up to 29° C for corn, 30° C for soybeans, and 32° C for cotton but that temperatures above these thresholds are very harmful. The slope of the decline above the optimum is significantly steeper than the incline below it. The same nonlinear and asymmetric relationship is found when we isolate either time-series or cross-sectional variations in temperatures and yields. This suggests limited historical adaptation of seed varieties or management practices to warmer temperatures because the cross-section includes farmers' adaptations to warmer climates and the time-series does not. Holding current growing regions fixed, area-weighted average yields are predicted to decrease by 30–46% before the end of the century under the slowest (B1) warming scenario and decrease by 63–82% under the most rapid warming scenario (A1FI) under the Hadley III model.}, number={37}, journal={PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA}, author={Schlenker, Wolfram and Roberts, Michael J.}, year={2009}, month={Sep}, pages={15594–15598} }
 @article{key_roberts_2009, title={Nonpecuniary Benefits to Farming: Implications for Supply Response to Decoupled Payments}, volume={91}, ISSN={["0002-9092"]}, DOI={10.1111/j.1467-8276.2008.01180.x}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={1}, journal={AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={Key, Nigel and Roberts, Michael J.}, year={2009}, month={Feb}, pages={1–18} }
 @misc{schlenker_roberts_2009, title={Reply to Meerburg et al.: Growing areas in Brazil and the United States with similar exposure to extreme heat have similar yields}, volume={106}, ISSN={["0027-8424"]}, DOI={10.1073/pnas.0911092106}, abstractNote={In response to the letter from Meerburg et al. (1), we examine whether farmers in Brazil have been more successful adapting to extremely hot temperatures than farmers in the United States. We find that soybean yields in the state of Mato Grosso (Brazil) are comparable to yields in Southern Illinois, and so are temperatures >30 °C. Thus, the results from Brazil are consistent with our earlier findings from the United States (2).}, number={43}, journal={PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA}, author={Schlenker, Wolfram and Roberts, Michael J.}, year={2009}, month={Oct}, pages={E121–E121} }
 @inproceedings{roberts_schlenker_2009, title={World supply and demand of food commodity calories}, volume={91}, number={5}, booktitle={American Journal of Agricultural Economics}, author={Roberts, M. J. and Schlenker, W.}, year={2009}, pages={1235–1242} }