@article{vicari_mokhtari_morales_jaykus_frey_slenning_cowen_2007, title={Second-order modeling of variability and uncertainty in microbial hazard characterization}, volume={70}, ISSN={["0362-028X"]}, DOI={10.4315/0362-028X-70.2.363}, abstractNote={This study describes an analytical framework that permits quantitative consideration of variability and uncertainty in microbial hazard characterization. Second-order modeling that used two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulation and stratification into homogeneous population subgroups was applied to integrate uncertainty and variability. Specifically, the bootstrap method was used to simulate sampling error due to the limited sample size in microbial dose-response modeling. A data set from human feeding trials with Campylobacter jejuni was fitted to the log-logistic dose-response model, and results from the analysis of FoodNet surveillance data provided further information on variability and uncertainty in Campylobacter susceptibility due to the effect of age. Results of our analyses indicate that uncertainty associated with dose-response modeling has a dominating influence on the analytical outcome. In contrast, inclusion of the age factor has a limited impact. While the advocacy of more closely modeling variability in hazard characterization is warranted, the characterization of key sources of uncertainties and their consistent propagation throughout a microbial risk assessment actually appear of greater importance.}, number={2}, journal={JOURNAL OF FOOD PROTECTION}, author={Vicari, Andrea S. and Mokhtari, Amirhossein and Morales, Roberta A. and Jaykus, Lee-Ann and Frey, H. Christopher and Slenning, Barrett D. and Cowen, Peter}, year={2007}, month={Feb}, pages={363–372} }
 @article{vicari_morales_jaykus_cowen_2000, title={Revisiting dose-response models of foodborne pathogens}, journal={Proceedings of the 9th symposium of the International Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics, Breckenridge, Colorado, USA, August 6-11 2000}, publisher={International Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics (ISVEE)}, author={Vicari, A. S. and Morales, R. A. and Jaykus, L. A. and Cowen, P.}, year={2000}, pages={438} }
 @article{hogue_white_guard-petter_schlosser_gast_ebel_farrar_gomez_madden_madison_et al._1997, title={Epidemiology and control of egg-associated Salmonella Enteritidis in the United States of America}, volume={16}, ISSN={["0253-1933"]}, DOI={10.20506/rst.16.2.1045}, abstractNote={The isolation rate for Salmonella enterica serotype Enteritidis (SE) in humans in the United States of America (USA) increased from 1,207 sporadic isolates identified in 1976 (0.6 isolates/100,000 population) to 10,201 identified in 1995 (4.0/100,000 population). The proportion of reported Salmonella isolates which were SE increased from 5% to 25% during the same time period. In 1990, 1994, and 1995, SE was the most commonly reported reported Salmonella serotype in the USA. Much of this increase has been associated with the consumption of contaminated shell eggs. An examination of the results of a United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) survey of spent hens at slaughter and unpasteurised liquid egg at breaker plants (liquid egg processors) in 1991 and 1995 reveals an increase in the prevalence of SE isolates overall and in most regions of the USA. SE phage type 4 (pt 4), the predominant SE phage type in other parts of the world, has emerged in the egg industry in the western USA concurrent with a sharp increase in the number of sporadic human SE pt 4 isolates in California and Utah. Research on the molecular structure and virulence of SE pt 4 isolates from the USA as compared with isolates from other parts of the world (human and poultry) should be a priority. A comparison of DNA from pt 4 isolates from the USA and Europe may provide information about the potential threat to public health and poultry in the USA from this phage type. Some regional success in the reduction of human illness as a result of SE control efforts is apparent. The Pennsylvania Egg Quality Assurance Program has shown progress in reducing SE infection in participating flocks. At a national level, however, neither the incidence of human illness due to SE nor the prevalence of SE in flocks and unpasteurised liquid eggs have decreased significantly, despite the implementation of the USDA 'trace back' regulation from 1990 to 1995, and intensified efforts to educate food handlers and to enforce safe food handling practices. More effort is needed to control SE at every stage of the egg continuum, from production through to consumption. A risk-reduction approach, with barriers to the introduction and multiplication of the pathogen throughout the farm-to-table continuum, is the most practical method for reducing human illness from SE in shell eggs at present. An effective long-term solution will require interdisciplinary efforts involving government, industry, consumers, and academics. Interventions should be developed and evaluated in compliance with the potential for reducing the risk to human health and cost-effectiveness.}, number={2}, journal={REVUE SCIENTIFIQUE ET TECHNIQUE DE L OFFICE INTERNATIONAL DES EPIZOOTIES}, author={Hogue, A and White, P and Guard-Petter, J and Schlosser, W and Gast, R and Ebel, E and Farrar, J and Gomez, T and Madden, J and Madison, M and et al.}, year={1997}, month={Aug}, pages={542–553} }
 @article{morales_thurman_1993, title={Methods for analyzing the effects of Salmonella outbreaks on poultry prices}, volume={16}, DOI={10.1016/0167-5877(93)90018-o}, number={1}, journal={Preventive Veterinary Medicine}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Morales, Roberta A. and Thurman, Walter N.}, year={1993}, month={Apr}, pages={65–66} }
 @article{cowen_chen_morales_li_levine_tong_carlton_huff_1988, title={Descriptive analysis of diagnostic test results of quarantined pigs and cattle imported into the People's Republic of China from the United States}, volume={84}, journal={Acta Veterinaria Scandinavica}, author={Cowen, P. and Chen, B. and Morales, R. A. and Li, S. and Levine, J. F. and Tong, K. and Carlton, T. L. and Huff, D. R.}, year={1988}, pages={271–273} }