@article{jung_lackmann_2023, title={Changes in Tropical Cyclones Undergoing Extratropical Transition in a Warming Climate: Quasi‐Idealized Numerical Experiments of North Atlantic Landfalling Events}, volume={50}, ISSN={0094-8276 1944-8007}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101963}, DOI={10.1029/2022GL101963}, abstractNote={Abstract The current study extends earlier work that demonstrated future extratropical transition (ET) events will feature greater intensity and heavier precipitation to specifically consider potential changes in the impacts of landfalling ET events in a warming climate. A quasi‐idealized modeling framework allows comparison of highly similar present‐day and future event simulations; the model initial conditions are based on observational composites, increasing representativeness of the results. The future composite ET event features substantially more impactful weather conditions in coastal areas, with heavier precipitation and greater storm intensity. Specifically, a Category 2 present‐day storm attained Category 4 Saffir‐Simpson intensity in the future simulation and maintained greater intensity throughout the entire life cycle, although the storm undergoes less reintensification during the post‐ET process, a result of reduced baroclinic conversion. These findings suggest increased potential for coastal hazards due to stronger tropical cyclone winds and heavier rainfall, leading to more severe coastal flooding and storm surge.}, number={8}, journal={Geophysical Research Letters}, publisher={American Geophysical Union (AGU)}, author={Jung, Chunyong and Lackmann, Gary M.}, year={2023}, month={Apr} }
 @article{jung_lackmann_2019, title={Extratropical Transition of Hurricane Irene (2011) in a Changing Climate}, volume={32}, ISSN={["1520-0442"]}, DOI={10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0558.1}, abstractNote={Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) undergoing strong extratropical transition (ET) can produce adverse societal impacts in areas that rarely experience direct TC impacts. This, in conjunction with projected environmental changes in climatological ET regions, motivates the investigation of possible future changes in ET characteristics. We utilize a small ensemble of numerical model simulations to examine how warming affects the ET of Hurricane Irene. To assess the effects of climate change, we use the pseudo-global warming method in which thermodynamic changes, derived from an ensemble of 20 CMIP5 GCMs, are applied to analyzed initial and lateral boundary conditions of model simulations. We find increased storm intensity in the future simulations, both in reduced minimum sea level pressure and strengthened 10-m wind speed. Storm-centered composites indicate a strengthening of tropospheric potential vorticity near the center of Irene, consistent with enhanced latent heat release. The results also demonstrate that Irene’s precipitation in the warmed simulations increases at a rate that exceeds Clausius–Clapeyron scaling, owing to enhanced moisture flux convergence and an additional contribution from increased surface evaporation. The duration of the transition process increased in the warmed simulations due to a weakened midtropospheric trough and reduced vertical wind shear and meridional SST gradient with a slower northward translation. These results suggest that transitioning storms may exhibit an increased ability to extend TC-like conditions poleward, and motivates additional research.}, number={15}, journal={JOURNAL OF CLIMATE}, author={Jung, Chunyong and Lackmann, Gary M.}, year={2019}, month={Aug}, pages={4847–4871} }