@article{mosnier_javalera-rincon_jones_andrew_bai_baker_basnet_boer_chavarro_costa_et al._2023, title={A decentralized approach to model national and global food and land use systems}, volume={18}, ISSN={["1748-9326"]}, DOI={10.1088/1748-9326/acc044}, abstractNote={The achievement of several sustainable development goals and the Paris Climate Agreement depends on rapid progress towards sustainable food and land systems in all countries. We have built a flexible, collaborative modeling framework to foster the development of national pathways by local research teams and their integration up to global scale. Local researchers independently customize national models to explore mid-century pathways of the food and land use system transformation in collaboration with stakeholders. An online platform connects the national models, iteratively balances global exports and imports, and aggregates results to the global level. Our results show that actions toward greater sustainability in countries could sum up to 1 Mha net forest gain per year, 950 Mha net gain in the land where natural processes predominate, and an increased CO2 sink of 3.7 GtCO2e yr−1 over the period 2020–2050 compared to current trends, while average food consumption per capita remains above the adequate food requirements in all countries. We show examples of how the global linkage impacts national results and how different assumptions in national pathways impact global results. This modeling setup acknowledges the broad heterogeneity of socio-ecological contexts and the fact that people who live in these different contexts should be empowered to design the future they want. But it also demonstrates to local decision-makers the interconnectedness of our food and land use system and the urgent need for more collaboration to converge local and global priorities.}, number={4}, journal={ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS}, author={Mosnier, Aline and Javalera-Rincon, Valeria and Jones, Sarah K. and Andrew, Robbie and Bai, Zhaohai and Baker, Justin and Basnet, Shyam and Boer, Rizaldi and Chavarro, John and Costa, Wanderson and et al.}, year={2023}, month={Apr} }
 @article{wu_baker_wade_mccord_fargione_havlik_2022, title={Contributions of healthier diets and agricultural productivity toward sustainability and climate goals in the United States}, volume={11}, ISSN={["1862-4057"]}, DOI={10.1007/s11625-022-01232-w}, abstractNote={Abstract Meeting ambitious climate targets will require deploying the full suite of mitigation options, including those that indirectly reduce greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions. Healthy diets have sustainability co-benefits by directly reducing livestock emissions as well as indirectly reducing land use emissions. Increased crop productivity could indirectly avoid emissions by reducing cropland area. However, there is disagreement on the sustainability of proposed healthy U.S. diets and a lack of clarity on how long-term sustainability benefits may change in response to shifts in the livestock sector. Here, we explore the GHG emissions impacts of seven scenarios that vary U.S. crop yields and healthier diets in the U.S. and overseas. We also examine how impacts vary across assumptions of future ruminant livestock productivity and ruminant stocking density in the U.S. We employ two complementary land use models—the US FABLE Calculator, an agricultural and forestry sector accounting model with high agricultural commodity representation, and GLOBIOM, a spatially explicit partial equilibrium optimization model for global land use systems. Results suggest that healthier U.S. diets that follow the Dietary Guidelines for Americans reduce agricultural and land use greenhouse gas emissions by 25–57% (approx 120–310 MtCO 2e /y) and pastureland area by 28–38%. The potential emissions and land sparing benefits of U.S. agricultural productivity growth are modest within the U.S. due to the increasing comparative advantage of U.S. crops. Our findings suggest that healthy U.S. diets can significantly contribute toward meeting U.S. long-term climate goals for the land use sectors.}, journal={SUSTAINABILITY SCIENCE}, author={Wu, Grace C. and Baker, Justin S. and Wade, Christopher M. and McCord, Gordon C. and Fargione, Joseph E. and Havlik, Petr}, year={2022}, month={Nov} }
 @article{wade_baker_van houtven_cai_lord_castellanos_leiva_fuentes_alfaro_kondash_et al._2022, title={Opportunities and spatial hotspots for irrigation expansion in Guatemala to support development goals in the food-energy-water nexus}, volume={267}, ISSN={["1873-2283"]}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2022.107608}, DOI={10.1016/j.agwat.2022.107608}, abstractNote={Climate change, growing populations, and increasing wealth are increasing demand for food, energy, and water. Additionally, water stress is expected to increase in the future in areas with high rates of seasonality of precipitation, due to increased variability in precipitation. One approach to limiting the impact of climate change on food system productions is through the intensive and extensive expansion of irrigated agriculture. This study develops a hydro-economic model to assess future agriculture production possibilities and the role of irrigation water in the Pacific Slope region of Guatemala, one of the most productive agricultural regions in the country. A range of future scenarios are presented to account for uncertainty around irrigation infrastructure expansion, future crop prices, incentives for production of biomass for bioenergy, and water availability and irrigation demand due to climate change. We find that current surface water irrigation infrastructure increases agricultural output by value in the region by about 5.3% compared to a fully rainfed system. Additionally, we show that with expanded irrigation infrastructure, agricultural output could increase by between 3.4% and 18.4% relative to current levels under current climate conditions, but the value of agricultural production could increase under climate change with projected output from current and expanded irrigation infrastructure resulting in an increase of 1.2–24.8% relative to current irrigation levels. We also present evidence that the marginal benefit from increased irrigation access to smallholder farmers is nearly equal to that received by large-scale industrial agricultural producers.}, journal={AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Wade, Christopher M. and Baker, Justin S. and Van Houtven, George and Cai, Yongxia and Lord, Benjamin and Castellanos, Edwin and Leiva, Benjamin and Fuentes, Gabriela and Alfaro, Gabriela and Kondash, A. J. and et al.}, year={2022}, month={Jun} }
 @article{wade_baker_jones_austin_cai_hernandez_latta_ohre_ragnauth_creason_et al._2022, title={Projecting the Impact of Socioeconomic and Policy Factors on Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Carbon Sequestration in US Forestry and Agriculture}, volume={37}, ISSN={["1618-1530"]}, DOI={10.1561/112.00000545_supp}, journal={JOURNAL OF FOREST ECONOMICS}, author={Wade, Christopher M. and Baker, Justin S. and Jones, Jason P. H. and Austin, Kemen G. and Cai, Yongxia and Hernandez, Alison Bean and Latta, Gregory S. and Ohre, Sara B. and Ragnauth, Shaun and Creason, Jared and et al.}, year={2022}, pages={127–161} }
 @article{wade_baker_jones_austin_cai_hernandez_latta_ohre_ragnauth_creason_et al._2022, title={Projecting the Impact of Socioeconomic and Policy Factors on Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Carbon Sequestration in US Forestry and Agriculture}, volume={37}, ISSN={["1618-1530"]}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/112.00000545}, DOI={10.1561/112.00000545}, abstractNote={Understanding greenhouse gas mitigation potential of the U.S. agriculture and forest sectors is critical for evaluating potential pathways to limit global average temperatures from rising more than 2° C. Using the FASOMGHG model, parameterized to reflect varying conditions across shared socioeconomic pathways, we project the greenhouse gas mitigation potential from U.S. agriculture and forestry across a range of carbon price scenarios. Under a moderate price scenario ($20 per ton CO2 with a 3% annual growth rate), cumulative mitigation potential over 2015-2055 varies substantially across SSPs, from 8.3 to 17.7 GtCO2e. Carbon sequestration in forests contributes the majority, 64-71%, of total mitigation across both sectors. We show that under a high income and population growth scenario over 60% of the total projected increase in forest carbon is driven by growth in demand for forest products, while mitigation incentives result in the remainder. This research sheds light on the interactions between alternative socioeconomic narratives and mitigation policy incentives which can help prioritize outreach, investment, and targeted policies for reducing emissions from and storing more carbon in these land use systems.}, journal={JOURNAL OF FOREST ECONOMICS}, publisher={Now Publishers}, author={Wade, Christopher M. and Baker, Justin S. and Jones, Jason P. H. and Austin, Kemen G. and Cai, Yongxia and Hernandez, Alison Bean and Latta, Gregory S. and Ohre, Sara B. and Ragnauth, Shaun and Creason, Jared and et al.}, year={2022}, pages={127–161} }
 @article{henry_baker_shaw_kondash_leiva_castellanos_wade_lord_van houtven_redmon_2021, title={How will renewable energy development goals affect energy poverty in Guatemala?}, volume={104}, ISSN={["1873-6181"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105665}, abstractNote={Many countries have taken on ambitious but potentially costly renewable energy development goals to combat climate change. The government of Guatemala has introduced a plan to increase renewable generation capacity, while an estimated 76% of Guatemalans are energy poor. In this paper, we evaluate the trade-offs between alleviating energy poverty and achieving renewable energy goals in Guatemala. We present a framework that combines an electricity cost model with a household expenditure survey to assess the effects that a national renewable energy development goal could have on energy poverty through added electricity expenditures. We find that the development of new renewable electricity generation has potential to significantly increase tariffs for residential electricity consumers across the country, whereby 80% of municipalities could experience more than one-third increase in monthly energy expenditures. More importantly, we find that the distribution of impacts will not be equal everywhere: households in the western, rural part of Guatemala that are already energy stressed will likely experience the greatest cost burdens because natural resource availability is low while overall poverty is already high. In addition, we compare the costs of renewable versus fossil fuel development and find that the least-cost policy in Guatemala includes a mix of both renewable and fossil technologies.}, journal={ENERGY ECONOMICS}, author={Henry, Candise L. and Baker, Justin S. and Shaw, Brooke K. and Kondash, Andrew J. and Leiva, Benjamin and Castellanos, Edwin and Wade, Christopher M. and Lord, Benjamin and Van Houtven, George and Redmon, Jennifer Hoponick}, year={2021}, month={Dec} }