@article{caner_fan_grennes_2021, title={Partners in debt: An endogenous non-linear analysis of the effects of public and private debt on growth}, volume={76}, ISSN={["1873-8036"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.iref.2021.07.010}, abstractNote={This paper offers an empirical analysis of how public and private debt jointly influence economic growth. We consider the endogeneity and interlink of two debt variables which are subject to regime switch in a dynamic panel data model. Using data from 29 OECD countries, the threshold effect of the interaction of the public and private debt on economic growth is found to be negative and significant when the aggregate debt to GDP ratio reaches 220%, beyond which the marginal effect of public (or private) debt further increases on top of the non-interactive effect. It is shown that the true effect of individual debt is largely underestimated if the interactive effect is omitted. We also decompose private debt into household and corporate debt and show that the public–private debt interaction is likely operating through the channels of household debt and public debt. We examine the robustness of the threshold effects to banking crises, output volatility, institutional quality, tax, private and public pension savings, participation rate as well as potential outliers.}, journal={INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF ECONOMICS & FINANCE}, author={Caner, Mehmet and Fan, Qingliang and Grennes, Thomas}, year={2021}, month={Nov}, pages={694–711} }
 @article{grennes_2012, title={1493: Uncovering the New World Columbus Created}, volume={94}, ISSN={["1467-8276"]}, DOI={10.1093/ajae/aas021}, abstractNote={In his earlier award-winning book, 1491, Charles C. Mann studied civilizations of the Americas prior to the arrival of Columbus. As a journalist on various scientific topics, he has written for the Atlantic Monthly, Science, National Geographic, and related publications. In 1493, he studies the effect of Columbus and the Europeans who followed him on plants, animals, and people of the Americas. He also studies the effects of transplanting plants and animals from the Americas to the other continents of the world. This movement of plants, animals, and people in both directions was called the Columbian Exchange (CE) by the historian, Crosby (1973). Mann follows Crosby by interpreting the voyages of Columbus as reuniting the separate continents to their earlier form when they were a single landmass called Pangaea, 250 million years ago. Mann emphasizes the importance of humans in overcoming geographical barriers and in re-shaping the world. He follows some biologists by calling the period after 1492 the Homogenocene, a new epoch in human history that results from the “mixing of unlike substances to create a uniform blend”. Mann's approach is to borrow from the literature of several disciplines that have addressed the CE, and to provide a synthesis that is informative to non-specialists. He introduces a personal element to the book by visiting important historical sites related to the CE and tracing the movement of crops, animals, and people from the time of Columbus to today. For example, he begins by visiting the site in the Dominican Republic where Columbus landed in 1492. He then visits a park in Manila that contains a statue of Miguel Legazpi, the Spanish founder of Manila. He also visits Yuegang, a town in coastal China that was important for the China-Manila trade, and Belem and Manaus, Brazilian towns that were important for the rubber trade. He visits Puebla, Mexico and discusses how the Talavera ceramics of Puebla were influenced by the Chinese ceramics coming from Manila, as well as ceramics from Talavera de la Reina in Spain. The book consists of nine chapters based on important products, locations, or groups of people. He includes separate chapters on the more important products, such as potatoes, sugar, maize, and rubber, and he provides shorter discussion of others, such as chocolate, chili peppers (capsicum), wheat, and cattle, that have altered cultures. A more comprehensive list of products that were exported from or imported to the Americas can be found in Crosby or Nunn and Qian (2010). Not all changes were beneficial, and Mann acknowledges unfavorable effects of the CE by including an entire chapter (“Evil Air”) on diseases. Death rates among slaves and natives of the Americas were high, but they were also high for early English settlers. In the Jamestown colony (1607–1623), 80% of the English settlers died within months of arriving. Mann provides useful information about the advanced civilizations that the Spanish encountered when they arrived in America. The corn-based civilizations were centered in Mexico, and the potato-based cultures were in the Andes. Columbus and the Conquistadors are villains to some modern writers, but Mann avoids judging them as villains or heroes. He does document the importance of these participants in the Columbian Exchange for the Americas and the entire world. After the Spanish realized that America was not India, acquiring gold and silver was their main goal. However, their search for precious metals had many unintended consequences. It initiated a diffusion of plants, animals, and people that had enormous biological and economic consequences throughout the world. Mann illustrates the diffusion process by following the travels of several important products. There were no potatoes in Ireland, Germany, or anywhere in Europe before Columbus. Potatoes were domesticated in the Andes as early as 2000 BC, and they were sent to Europe after Pizarro attacked the Andes in 1532. After a slow introduction, they became a major staple in Northern Europe, that contributed to population growth (Nunn and Qian, 2011). The European population data used by Malthus to construct his theory of population was based on a sample period that included the introduction of the potato in Europe. Historians, such as McNeill, consider the transplantation of potatoes from America to Europe to be a major reason for subsequent European domination of much of the world from 1750–1950. Potatoes were not without problems, especially the potato blight that contributed to the Irish Potato Famine of the 1840s. Also the appearance of the potato beetle in 1861 caused problems that led to the development of chemical pesticides that first included arsenic. The Andes that sent potatoes to Europe also sent guano, the first intensive fertilizer. Guano exports to Europe experienced a brief boom period until they were displaced by nitrates from Chile and later by the development of chemical fertilizers. Mann identifies potatoes as an early example of the modern agro-industrial complex: improved crops, high-intensity fertilizers, and factory-made pesticides that have been praised by some for high productivity but denounced by others for high toxicity. Sugar was native to New Guinea, and it was gradually moved to India, the Middle East, and to the islands off the coast of northwest Africa. Sugar was often produced with slave labor, and in the ninth century, lower Mesopotamia was covered with extensive sugarcane plantations worked by slaves from East Africa (Findlay and O'Rourke). When sugarcane production moved to the Americas, beginning with the West Indies, the derived demand for slave labor increased, and millions of slaves were sent across the Atlantic Ocean. Mann discusses how diseases and immunities influenced the choice between slave and indentured labor. Traders from China and the Philippine Islands had traded long before the Spanish arrived (and named the islands after King Philip), but the founding of Manila by Legazpi in 1570 made Manila an important intermediary in the trade between China and Spanish America. The early trade was dominated by exchanging silver from Potosi in modern Bolivia for silk and porcelain from China. Potosi, a mining town above 10,000 feet in the Andes, became the largest town in the Americas. The trading relationship led to the transplantation of American crops to China, especially maize and sweet potatoes. Production of these crops grew rapidly in China and contributed to a spurt of population growth similar to what Malthus observed in Europe. However, planting of maize and sweet potatoes on steep slopes where rice would not grow also contributed to deforestation and soil erosion. When the Spanish arrived in the New World, South America was the only source of rubber in the world. Europeans were amazed to see their first rubber ball from America. Some Brazilian cities, including Belem and Manaus, enjoyed a brief boom while they were monopoly exporters to Europe. However, an Englishman, Henry Wickham, smuggled rubber tree seeds out of the Amazon in 1876 and planted them in the Kew Gardens in England. Later they were transplanted to Asian locations where they prospered. Because Wickham contributed to the demise of the rubber monopoly, some Brazilians revile him as a “prince of thieves” and a “bio-pirate”. Rubber production has expanded in South China and Laos recently, and Mann warns that the region is not prepared for the likely appearance of a plant disease. Changes induced by the CE were so fundamental that Mann considered the subsequent period to be an entirely new epoch. The human response to the new opportunities followed a trial and error process that resulted in enormous economic benefits as well as many errors, such as spreading disease and pollution and expanding the use of slave labor. Not all migrant plants and animals were welcome, and some were considered to be “invasive species”. The process of overcoming geographical barriers and reuniting Pangaea by moving plants and animals and people continues today. Mann applies the concept of the Columbian Exchange, originally introduced by Crosby, and extends it in several ways. He provides more detail about the connections across products and inputs and across regions of the world. He incorporates recent archeological information about specific sites relevant to the CE. He provides useful information about diseases that have affected plants, animals, and people in ways that influenced the CE. Mann assembles an extensive body of evidence to indicate why and how Columbus and participants in the Columbian Exchange were extremely influential figures. Mann is not an economist, but he has a good feel for identifying economic issues and recognizing economic connections. He shows some awareness of the economics literature on trade and growth, but he does not take a stand on the broader economic issues related to trade and economic growth that have been studied by others (Acemoglu et al. 2002), Nunn and Qian, 2011, Nunn, 2011, Grennes 2007). Reuniting the continents provided new trading opportunities, especially for European countries with an Atlantic coast. Spain and Portugal were the pioneers, but England and the Netherlands were better prepared (Acemoglu et al. 2005) and received greater benefits. New beneficial trade with America may have influenced the fact that the Industrial Revolution began in England. Economic growth spread to other countries, but growth was not uniform across countries. One result is the Great Divergence in incomes today. (Pomeranz 2000). As part of the Columbian Exchange, cultures have borrowed from each other extensively, whether modern residents know it or not. Mann closes with a song sung by Philippine children giving thanks for the pleasures of their culture, including traditional food, such as jicama, eggplant, string beans, lima beans, peanuts, radishes, mustard, onions, tomatoes, garlic, ginger, and sesame seeds. Unknown to the children and some of their parents, is the fact that all these products were transplanted from the Americas or other continents. To some ecologists, the Columbian Exchange was the most important event since the extinction of the dinosaurs (Crosby). It was also a crucial economic event in the history of globalization (O'Rourke and Williamson). The recent episode of globalization that began around 1980 has had a profound effect on modern economies, and the episode that began in 1492 shaped subsequent globalization in important ways. Mann has provided useful data and insights into the ongoing process. The immediate effects of the CE were on agriculture and on the broader agro-industrial complex. The mass movement of people, both voluntary and coerced, had a profound effect on migrants as well as those who did not migrate. The exchange of plants, animals, and people also had a broader effect on the Industrial Revolution and the subsequent pattern of world economic growth. Mann's book should be a good read for economists interested in history, specialists in other disciplines, and the general public.}, number={3}, journal={AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={Grennes, Thomas}, year={2012}, month={Apr}, pages={818–821} }
 @article{kandilov_grennes_2012, title={The determinants of service offshoring: Does distance matter?}, volume={24}, ISSN={["1879-2006"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.japwor.2011.12.001}, abstractNote={The importance of distance for international trade remains an unsettled issue. Innovations in information technology have reduced the costs of offshore outsourcing of services. However, empirical studies using the gravity model continue to demonstrate that distance is important for merchandise and service trade. We estimate a gravity model of the determinants of service trade. After we properly control for all non-transport trade costs, including information barriers, and multilateral resistance terms as suggested by Anderson and van Wincoop (2003), we show that the remaining influence of distance is negligible.}, number={1}, journal={JAPAN AND THE WORLD ECONOMY}, author={Kandilov, Ivan T. and Grennes, Thomas}, year={2012}, month={Jan}, pages={36–43} }
 @article{guerron_grennes_leblebicioglu_2011, title={Economic development and heterogeneity in the great moderation among the states}, volume={11}, DOI={10.2202/1935-1690.2184}, abstractNote={Using state level personal income, we document the substantial heterogeneity in the magnitude and timing of the Great Moderation. Low income states experienced remarkable moderation, but some richer states experienced significant increases in volatility. We evaluate the findings from a development perspective, and discuss how differences in income per capita and the structure of production can determine the heterogeneity in income volatility across states.}, number={1}, journal={B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics}, author={Guerron, P. A. and Grennes, T. J. and Leblebicioglu, A.}, year={2011} }
 @article{grennes_2010, title={A Thousand Years of Trade History What's Left Out?}, volume={43}, ISSN={["1940-1906"]}, DOI={10.1080/01615440.2010.506420}, abstractNote={Power and Plenty: Trade, War, and the World Economy in the Second Millennium by Ronald Findlay and Kevin H. O’Rourke is an ambitious book about the history of world trade during the millennium 1000–2000 AD. The intent of the authors is to overcome the twin tyrannies of time and space that have limited earlier authors. The book is comprehensive in covering nearly all the regions of the earth for a thousand years. A theme of the book (contained in the title borrowed from Jacob Viner) is that the history of trade has been characterized by the interaction of economic forces and political and military forces. Although the book deals with many topics, it is primarily a history of trade, rather than a general economic history or a history of economic growth. The authors are prolific scholars in the fields of international trade and economic history, and they incorporate material from a vast scholarly literature. It is an economic history of trade, but it is clearly written in a style than makes it accessible to noneconomists. I am not aware of a better trade history for the period.}, number={4}, journal={HISTORICAL METHODS}, author={Grennes, Thomas}, year={2010}, pages={159–163} }
 @article{caner_grennes_2010, title={Sovereign Wealth Funds: The Norwegian Experience}, volume={33}, ISSN={["0378-5920"]}, DOI={10.1111/j.1467-9701.2009.01235.x}, abstractNote={Sovereign wealth funds have rapidly become significant international institutions. The performance of funds varies substantially across countries, but comprehensive and systematic analyses of funds have been hampered by the lack of transparency of most funds. The relative transparency of the Norway Fund allows us to do an econometric analysis of the Fund’s performance. The record resembles that of a mutual fund that has taken on greater risk over time. There is no evidence that the Fund has disrupted foreign financial markets more than mutual funds do. There remains a question as to whether the Fund and its Finance Ministry have been effective agents for the Norwegian citizens whose assets they are managing.}, number={4}, journal={WORLD ECONOMY}, author={Caner, Mehmet and Grennes, Thomas}, year={2010}, month={Apr}, pages={597–614} }
 @article{kandilov_grennes_2010, title={The determinants of service exports from Central and Eastern Europe}, volume={18}, ISSN={["1468-0351"]}, DOI={10.1111/j.1468-0351.2010.00392.x}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={4}, journal={ECONOMICS OF TRANSITION}, author={Kandilov, Ivan T. and Grennes, Thomas}, year={2010}, pages={763–794} }
 @article{grennes_2009, title={The Next Great Globalization: How Disadvantaged Nations Can Harness Their Financial Systems to Get Rich}, volume={91}, ISSN={["1467-8276"]}, DOI={10.1111/j.1467-8276.2008.01247_1.x}, abstractNote={American Journal of Agricultural EconomicsVolume 91, Issue 1 p. 290-291 Books Review The Next Great Globalization: How Disadvantaged Nations Can Harness Their Financial Systems to Get Rich by Mishkin, Frederic S. Thomas Grennes, Thomas Grennes North Carolina State UniversitySearch for more papers by this author Thomas Grennes, Thomas Grennes North Carolina State UniversitySearch for more papers by this author First published: 01 February 2009 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8276.2008.01247_1.xRead the full textAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL No abstract is available for this article. Volume91, Issue1February 2009Pages 290-291 RelatedInformation}, number={1}, journal={AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={Grennes, Thomas}, year={2009}, month={Feb}, pages={290–291} }
 @article{craig_goodwin_grennes_2004, title={The effect of mechanical refrigeration on nutrition in the United States}, volume={28}, ISSN={["1527-8034"]}, DOI={10.1215/01455532-28-2-325}, number={2}, journal={SOCIAL SCIENCE HISTORY}, author={Craig, LA and Goodwin, B and Grennes, T}, year={2004}, pages={325–336} }
 @article{grennes_2003, title={Creative Destruction and Globalization}, volume={22}, number={3}, journal={Cato Journal}, author={Grennes, T.}, year={2003}, pages={543–558} }
 @article{goodwin_grennes_craig_2002, title={Mechanical refrigeration and the integration of perishable commodity markets}, volume={39}, ISSN={["0014-4983"]}, DOI={10.1006/exeh.2002.0781}, abstractNote={Abstract In this paper, we provide a history of the economic impact of mechanical refrigeration in the United States. We also examine spatial and temporal aspects of market integration. Specifically, we examine seasonal fluctuations in prices and analyze regional integration of markets for butter. We test the null hypothesis of no integration before and after the advent and adoption of refrigerated shipping and warehousing using 31 years of monthly data. We find strong evidence of spatially integrated markets after adoption. Our results indicate that the adoption of mechanical refrigeration brought about a significant dampening of seasonal fluctuations of butter prices and a tightening of spatial price linkages. We conclude that the adoption of mechanical refrigeration had a significant impact on both temporal and spatial butter price relationships.}, number={2}, journal={EXPLORATIONS IN ECONOMIC HISTORY}, author={Goodwin, BK and Grennes, TJ and Craig, LA}, year={2002}, month={Apr}, pages={154–182} }
 @article{grennes_2000, title={Globalization and history: The evolution of a nineteenth century Atlantic economy}, volume={82}, ISSN={["0002-9092"]}, DOI={10.1093/ajae/82.3.784}, abstractNote={American Journal of Agricultural EconomicsVolume 82, Issue 3 p. 784-785 Books Reviewed O'Rourke, Kevin H., and Jeffrey G. Williamson. Globalization and History: The Evolution of a Nineteenth Century Atlantic Economy. Cambridge: MIT Press, 1999, 333 pp., $@@-@@45 Thomas Grennes, Thomas Grennes North Carolina State UniversitySearch for more papers by this author Thomas Grennes, Thomas Grennes North Carolina State UniversitySearch for more papers by this author First published: 01 August 2000 https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/82.3.784AboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onEmailFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditWechat No abstract is available for this article. Volume82, Issue3August 2000Pages 784-785 RelatedInformation}, number={3}, journal={AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={Grennes, T}, year={2000}, month={Aug}, pages={784–785} }
 @article{grennes_2000, title={The development of banking and financial markets in independent Lithuania}, volume={31}, DOI={10.1080/01629770000000321}, abstractNote={Money money plays allows a central trade to role be in accomplished all modern at economies. a lower cost The than use by of money allows trade to be accomplished at a lower cost han by bartering one good for another. By using money, someone who wants to buy potatoes and sell linen does not have to search for someone else who wants to sell potatoes and buy linen. Another important feature of modern economies is that the people who save are usually different from those who invest. Banks and other financial intermediaries are}, number={2}, journal={Journal of Baltic Studies}, author={Grennes, T.}, year={2000}, pages={172–192} }
 @misc{grennes_1999, title={Aspects of European monetary integration: The politics of convergence.}, volume={109}, number={456}, journal={Economic Journal}, author={Grennes, T.}, year={1999}, pages={F490–491} }
 @article{silva_grennes_1999, title={Wheat policy and economy-wide reform in Brazil}, volume={20}, ISSN={["1574-0862"]}, DOI={10.1016/S0169-5150(98)00081-4}, abstractNote={Abstract In recent years, the wheat sector in Brazil has moved from governmental protection and public intervention to a free market and privatization. In this study, those changes are analyzed through measures of governmental intervention on nominal rates of protection and on welfare of producers and consumers. Elasticities of demand and supply of wheat are estimated, and the effects of changes in policies are analyzed under official and shadow exchange rates. Welfare measures indicate that almost US$ 8 billion were spent from 1970 until 1989 with policies to subsidize producers and consumers. The policy-induced stimulus to consumer demand exceeded the stimulus to domestic production, and self sufficiency in wheat declined. The reduction in wheat subsidies since 1989 was more than an isolated sector-specific policy. It was part of macroeconomic anti-inflation policy, and it coincided with other economy-wide changes such as real appreciation and a decline in international commodity prices.}, number={2}, journal={AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={Silva, OM and Grennes, T}, year={1999}, month={Mar}, pages={143–157} }
 @article{grennes_1998, title={Farm policy and trade conflict: The Uruguay round and CAP reform}, volume={64}, ISSN={["0038-4038"]}, DOI={10.2307/1060802}, abstractNote={The book is a detailed chronology of the treatment of agriculture within the GATT and the evolution of agricultural policy in the European Union. It describes in detail the seven years of Uruguay Round negotiations and the somewhat related efforts to reform the CAP. The strength of the book is the institutional detail about how agricultural policy is made within the European Union. European agricultural interests have captured agricultural policy just as they have in the United States and all the OECD countries. However, adding the European Union-level bureaucracy to the producer-national government relationship complicates the lobbying process. Readers interested in the role of the European Commission and the European Council in the policy process can find it here. The main conclusion of the book is that only modest liberalization of agricultural trade has been accomplished by the Uruguay Round and its implementation. However, the authors claim that the principle of subjecting agriculture to the same GATT and World Trade Organization rules as other sectors is an important accomplishment. Export subsidies have been restricted and import quotas have been converted to tariff equivalent. Although some of the tariff equivalents are more than 100%, they may be more vulnerable to future liberalization than they were as quantitative restrictions. Although the subject of agricultural trade policy lends itself to economic analysis, the weakness of the book is that it is short on economic analysis. There is a large empirical literature on the effects of barriers to international agricultural trade and the trade-diverting effects of the CAP, but this literature is rarely mentioned. Past EU enlargement has provided empirical data on the effects of expanding from six to nine to twelve to fifteen members, but the book is silent on these effects. The authors do claim, without detailed analysis, that future EU enlargement to include the transition economics of Central and Eastern Europe would make the CAP no longer viable at current support and tax levels. The book cites D. Gale Johnson's 1973 book World Agriculture in Disarray (1991) and uses that title as the title of Chapter two. It would have been appropriate to also cite Johnson's 1950 book on the incompatibility of domestic price controls and free trade. This conflict explains why the agricultural sector has been most resistant to trade liberalization. Readers of a book on agricultural trade might expect a comparison between the variable levies and export subsidies on grain of the European Union and the British Corn Laws with their tariffs and export countries. The comparison is not made in the book. In the Uruguay Round negotiations on agriculture, a distinction was made between government payments related to current production (such as price supports) and payments unrelated to current production (so-called decoupled payments). The former payments were restricted by}, number={3}, journal={SOUTHERN ECONOMIC JOURNAL}, author={Grennes, T}, year={1998}, month={Jan}, pages={798–799} }
 @article{goodwin_grennes_1998, title={Tsarist Russia and the world wheat market}, volume={35}, ISSN={["0014-4983"]}, DOI={10.1006/exeh.1998.0706}, abstractNote={Abstract Russian grain trade, production, and consumption during the Tsarist period (1861–1914) is empirically evaluated. Russia was the world's largest wheat exporter during this period. Tsarist Russian agriculture is often characterized in the literature as having been “backward” and not well-integrated with international markets. In contrast to this view, this analysis finds that the Russian grain trade was significantly influenced by international prices and was well-integrated with the international commercial wheat trade. Our results indicate that after 1880 regional wheat markets in Russia were linked and that a strong connection had been established between Russian ports and cities at the center of the world wheat trade. Deviations from equilibrium price relationships were found to be eliminated more rapidly for trade between Odessa and England than for wheat trade between New York and England. In addition, grain trade is shown to have been positively influenced by the development of the rail system.}, number={4}, journal={EXPLORATIONS IN ECONOMIC HISTORY}, author={Goodwin, BK and Grennes, TJ}, year={1998}, month={Oct}, pages={405–430} }
 @article{grennes_johnson_thursby_1980, title={A CRITIQUE OF EXCHANGE-RATE TREATMENT IN AGRICULTURAL TRADE MODELS - COMMENT}, volume={62}, ISSN={["1467-8276"]}, DOI={10.2307/1239693}, abstractNote={In a recent article in this Journal, Chambers and Just criticize partial equilibrium models of trade which attempt to show the effect of currency devaluation on domestic prices. Three of their main points are (a) cross-price effects cannot be ignored, (b) the response of domestic prices to exchange rate disturbances may (but need not) be different from their response to foreign price disturbances, and (c) demand systems derived from weakly separable utility functions may be useful in constructing trade models. We read the Chambers-Just note with ambivalence because we have made all of}, number={2}, journal={AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={GRENNES, T and JOHNSON, PR and THURSBY, M}, year={1980}, pages={249–252} }
 @article{grennes_johnson_1979, title={OLIGOPOLY PRICING IN THE WORLD WHEAT MARKET - COMMENT}, volume={61}, ISSN={["0002-9092"]}, DOI={10.2307/1239452}, abstractNote={Alaouze, Watson, and Sturgess (AWS) have recently revived the argument that the world wheat market is oligopolistic. McCalla described the market as a United States-Canadian duopoly, and the innovation of AWS is to convert the club into a triopoly by adding Australia. We are generally skeptical about the ability of oligopoly models to explain the behavior of world wheat prices, and oligopoly appears especially inappropriate in view of events since 1971. We offer two comments con-}, number={3}, journal={AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={GRENNES, T and JOHNSON, PR}, year={1979}, pages={574–577} }
 @article{grennes_johnson_thursby_1978, title={INSULATING TRADE POLICIES, INVENTORIES, AND WHEAT PRICE STABILITY}, volume={60}, ISSN={["0002-9092"]}, DOI={10.2307/1240169}, abstractNote={Volatile conditions in the world wheat market in the 1970s have revived interest in the subject of wheat price stability. Real wheat prices declined steadily after 1946, and by 1970 prices were as low as at any time in this century except for the trough of the Great Depression in 1932.' Prices began to rise in 1971, and they reached their post-war peak in the crop year 1973-74. Since then they have declined, and by the middle of 1977 they hovered near their 1932 level ($1.20 per bushel in terms of 1967 dollars). Several explanations of this episode in the history of wheat prices have been offered, and we have emphasized the importance of government trade policies that attempted to insulate domestic markets from foreign disturbances (Johnson, Grennes, Thursby; see also D. Gale Johnson, Josling). Other interpretations stressed the inadequacy of grain reserves, and recently several world grain reserve plans have been proposed to attenuate future price instability. The U.S. government proposal calls for a reserve of 25 million tons of wheat, a number which emerges from several other proposals as well. For a discussion of some of the plans see Warley, Trezise, Eaton and Steele, and Sarris, Abbott, Taylor. The level of inventories and the volume of international trade are not unrelated (Johnson and Sumner), and the purpose of this study is to carry out a quantitative investigation of that relationship. Our analytical framework will be a World Wheat Trade Model which we have employed to study related problems (Johnson, Grennes, Thursby), and we will apply it to the circumstances of 197374). Because of the downward pressure on wheat prices since World War II, the major policy problem in the wheat exporting countries before 1972 was how to avoid lower prices and larger inventories. The United States and Canada acquired large inventories as a result of their price support programs, and at times these stocks were larger than a year's wheat production. Two effects of these large-scale government stock operations were (1) to reduce price variability around a declining trend and (2) to reduce the profitability of inventory holding by private firms and other governments. Eventually, the considerable expense of this policy led to an effort to deplete inventories by production controls and export promotion. At a time when the United States was aggressively giving wheat away to some countries and subsidizing commercial exports to other countries, several events, beginning in 1972, brought about a reversal of world market conditions from surplus to shortage. A small world wheat crop in 1972-73 plus a decision by the USSR to respond to a small domestic crop by resorting to imports resulted in the first substantial increase in the real wheat price since 1947. In spite of a record world crop the next year and a substantial reduction in Soviet imports, wheat prices doubled in 1973-74. Prices were destabilized in the United States in 1973-74 by trade policies in other countries that attempted to insulate domestic markets from conditions in foreign markets. Specifically, in importing countries such as Japan and the European Economic Community, tariffs were lowered, and in exporting countries such as Canada, Australia, and Argentina, foreign sales were discouraged. Notice that insulation does not refer to the level of protection as measured by a tariff or an export tax. It consists of changing the level of protection in response to a change in the foreign price, so as to hold the domestic price constant. Thus, an insulating trade policy involves decreasing the protection received by domestic producers when the world price increases, and increasing protection when the world price decreases. This result is automatically achieved by the EEC variable import levy; and, earlier, the English Corn Laws achieved some automatic insulation by employing both a variable tariff and a variable export bounty (Haberler). Perfect insulation is accomplished when the domestic price is held constant and the effective import demand becomes perfectly inelastic. The World Wheat Trade Model employed here (Grennes, Johnson, Thursby, chap. 4, and Johnson, Grennes, Thursby) takes both production and inventories as exogenous variables,2 and it distinThomas Grennes is an assistant professor in the Department of Economics and Business and Paul R. Johnson is a professor in the Department of Economics, School of Agriculture and Life Sciences, at North Carolina State University, Raleigh. Marie Thursby is an assistant professor of economics at Syracuse University. Paper 5204 of the Journal Series of the North Carolina Agricultural Experiment Station, Raleigh. SFor a discussion of the history of U.S. wheat prices in this century, see Grennes, Johnson, and Thursby, chap. 1. 2 We do not offer a positive theory of the behavior of wheat inventories nor have we seen a satisfactory one. We have also avoided the issue of optimal inventories (see Gustafson, Johnson, and Sumner). Our contribution is the modest one of specifying the implications for trade and prices of alternative exogenous inventory policies.}, number={1}, journal={AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={GRENNES, T and JOHNSON, PR and THURSBY, M}, year={1978}, pages={132–134} }
 @article{grennes_1975, title={EXCHANGE-RATE AND US AGRICULTURE - COMMENT}, volume={57}, ISSN={["0002-9092"]}, DOI={10.2307/1238856}, abstractNote={G. Edward Schuh has recently called attention to the relationship between currency exchange rates and agricultural prices. He emphasized that overvaluation of the dollar had depressed agricultural prices in the United States prior to 1971. However, the evidence presented by Schuh to show that the dollar was overvalued is unconvincing, and part of the price-depressing effects of overvaluation were probably shifted from American producers to foreign}, number={1}, journal={AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={GRENNES, T}, year={1975}, pages={134–135} }