@article{prest_fell_gordon_conway_2024, title={Estimating the emissions reductions from supply-side fossil fuel interventions}, volume={136}, ISSN={["1873-6181"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107720}, abstractNote={Supply-side interventions that retire highly emitting fossil fuel assets have received increased attention from policymakers and private actors alike. Yet concerns about market leakage—wherein reduced supply from one source is partially offset by increased production from other sources—have raised questions about how much emissions reductions they can achieve. In this paper, we estimate the effects of these supply-side interventions on global emissions, accounting for both market leakage as well as the relative greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity of different sources of supply. We account for uncertainty in market leakage rates and the emissions intensities of the curtailed and substitute sources of supply through a Monte Carlo analysis, drawing on supply and demand elasticities from the economics literature and emissions intensity data from the state-of-the-art Oil Climate Index plus Gas (OCI+) dataset on 586 oil and gas fields around the world. We find a rough band of central estimates for life-cycle emissions reductions from permanent and additional supply-side interventions in the range of 40–50% of the gross life-cycle emissions of each barrel curtailed, depending on the relative emissions intensity of the curtailed and substitute sources of supply. Further, across all of 1.53 million Monte Carlo simulations we conduct, we find very high confidence of net emissions reductions from supply-side interventions (nearly 99% of cases). Finally, targeting the most emissions-intensive sources of oil supply could achieve yet further emissions reductions. How one compares methane and CO2 emissions also has important consequences for which sources to target. Importantly, all estimated emissions reductions we estimate hinge upon a given supply-side intervention being credibly permanent and additional, and our estimates do not assess the uncertainties of those criteria being met due to the idiosyncratic nature of those assessments.}, journal={ENERGY ECONOMICS}, author={Prest, Brian C. and Fell, Harrison and Gordon, Deborah and Conway, T. J.}, year={2024}, month={Aug} }
 @article{fell_2023, title={Should we invest in nuclear?}, volume={7}, ISSN={["2542-4351"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.joule.2023.07.007}, abstractNote={In this issue of Joule, Haywood, Leroutier, and Pietzcker outline reasons why investing in nuclear is counterproductive for meeting decarbonization goals. I review these arguments against nuclear and provide some possible explanations as to why we do, and should, see a relatively small amount of investment in new nuclear generation. In this issue of Joule, Haywood, Leroutier, and Pietzcker outline reasons why investing in nuclear is counterproductive for meeting decarbonization goals. I review these arguments against nuclear and provide some possible explanations as to why we do, and should, see a relatively small amount of investment in new nuclear generation. Why investing in new nuclear plants is bad for the climateHaywood et al.JouleJuly 21, 2023In BriefInvestments in new nuclear power plants are bad for the climate due to high costs and long construction times. Given the urgency of climate change mitigation, which requires reducing emissions from the EU electricity grid to almost zero in the 2030s, preference should be given to the cheapest technology that can be deployed fastest. On both costs and speed, renewable energy sources beat nuclear. Every euro invested in new nuclear plants delays decarbonization compared to investments in renewable power. Full-Text PDF}, number={8}, journal={JOULE}, author={Fell, Harrison}, year={2023}, month={Aug}, pages={1679–1681} }
 @article{fell_morrill_2023, title={The Impact of Wind Energy on Air Pollution and Emergency Department Visits}, volume={11}, ISSN={["1573-1502"]}, url={http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-85177799040&partnerID=MN8TOARS}, DOI={10.1007/s10640-023-00825-y}, number={1}, journal={ENVIRONMENTAL & RESOURCE ECONOMICS}, author={Fell, Harrison and Morrill, Melinda Sandler}, year={2023}, month={Nov} }
 @article{meyers_bostian_fell_2021, title={Asymmetric Cost Pass-Through in Multi-Unit Procurement Auctions: An Experimental Approach}, volume={69}, DOI={https://doi.org/10.1111/joie.12254}, abstractNote={We explore input cost pass‐through in multi‐unit procurement auctions. Whether cost shocks are private versus common across firms has important implications for discriminatory, but not uniform price auctions. We provide evidence of asymmetric pass‐through of private cost shocks in discriminatory auctions. Unlike uniform price auctions, revenue‐maximizing bidders in discriminatory auctions ‘pad’ bids close to the expected clearing price for units with costs below that price, but they do not bid below cost on higher cost units. Therefore, if costs are higher than expected, the clearing price rises and if costs are lower than expected, the clearing price remains high.}, number={1}, journal={Journal of Industrial Economics}, publisher={Wiley Online Library}, author={Meyers, E. and Bostian, A.J. and Fell, H.}, year={2021}, pages={109–130} }
 @article{myers_bostian_fell_2021, title={Asymmetric Cost Pass-Through in Multi-Unit Procurement Auctions: An Experimental Approach*}, volume={69}, ISSN={["1467-6451"]}, DOI={10.1111/joie.12254}, abstractNote={We explore input cost pass‐through in multi‐unit procurement auctions. Whether cost shocks are private versus common across firms has important implications for discriminatory, but not uniform price auctions. We provide evidence of asymmetric pass‐through of private cost shocks in discriminatory auctions. Unlike uniform price auctions, revenue‐maximizing bidders in discriminatory auctions ‘pad’ bids close to the expected clearing price for units with costs below that price, but they do not bid below cost on higher cost units. Therefore, if costs are higher than expected, the clearing price rises and if costs are lower than expected, the clearing price remains high.}, number={1}, journal={JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS}, author={Myers, Erica and Bostian, A. J. and Fell, Harrison}, year={2021}, month={Mar}, pages={109–130} }
 @article{fell_kaffine_novan_2021, title={Emissions, Transmission, and the Environmental Value of Renewable Energy}, volume={13}, ISSN={["1945-774X"]}, DOI={10.1257/pol.20190258}, abstractNote={ We examine how transmission congestion alters the environmental benefits provided by renewable generation. Using hourly data from the Texas and midcontinent electricity markets, we find that relaxing transmission constraints between the wind-rich areas and the demand centers of the respective markets conservatively increases the nonmarket value of wind by 30 percent for Texas and 17 percent for midcontinent markets. Much of this increase in the nonmarket value arises from a redistribution in where air quality improvements occur—when transmission is not constrained, wind offsets much more pollution from fossil fuel units located near highly populated demand centers. (JEL L94, Q42, Q51, Q53) }, number={2}, journal={AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-ECONOMIC POLICY}, author={Fell, Harrison and Kaffine, Daniel T. and Novan, Kevin}, year={2021}, month={May}, pages={241–272} }
 @article{fell_johnson_2021, title={Regional disparities in emissions reduction and net trade from renewables}, volume={4}, ISSN={["2398-9629"]}, DOI={10.1038/s41893-020-00652-9}, number={4}, journal={NATURE SUSTAINABILITY}, author={Fell, Harrison and Johnson, Jeremiah X.}, year={2021}, month={Apr}, pages={358–365} }
 @article{pless_fell_sirgin_2020, title={Information Searching in the Residential Solar PV Market}, volume={41}, ISSN={["1944-9089"]}, DOI={10.5547/01956574.41.4.jple}, abstractNote={ This paper examines the consumer information search behavior of households in San Diego County with solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. We focus on whether solar PV households financing the technology through third-party ownership (TPO) versus host-ownership (HO), which is equivalent to leasing or buying goods in other markets, have heterogeneous preferences as reflected by information search. Conditional on adoption, we find that TPO households tend to seek more information on home modifications required for solar installation whereas HO households seek more information on the financial returns of solar investments. These preferences may be correlated with the consumption of other goods and services, and thus, if used to inform marketing strategies, our results could help reduce solar PV customer acquisition costs and accelerate technology diffusion. They also have indirect implications for marketing goods and services in other contexts where consumers exhibit similar preferences. }, number={4}, journal={The Energy Journal}, author={Pless, J. and Fell, H. and Sirgin, B.}, year={2020}, pages={255–278} }
 @article{doyle_fell_2018, title={Fuel prices, restructuring, and natural gas plant operations}, volume={52}, ISSN={["1873-0221"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.reseneeco.2018.01.001}, abstractNote={Switching from coal-fired to natural gas-fired generation and increasing the thermal efficiency (energy generated per unit of energy burned) of fossil fuel fired electricity generation plants have been identified as ways of achieving meaningful emission reductions. In this study, we examine the fuel-price responsiveness across gas plant technologies and across the market structures in which the plants operate. We find that there are significant differences in the generation and efficiency responses of gas plants to fuel prices across generation technologies and market structures. Specifically, our results indicate that, regardless of market structure, generation from natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plants is responsive to both coal and gas prices, but that generation from simple cycle (NGSC) plants only respond to gas prices. On the other hand, with respect to efficiency, we generally find that only NGCC plants operating in deregulated regions show statistically significant efficiency improvements in response to coal price increases and that, generally, neither NGCC or NGSC plants, regardless of market structure, respond in any significant way to gas prices. Finally, using these parameter estimates, we calculate emissions savings from efficiency improvements and fuel-switching possibilities.}, journal={RESOURCE AND ENERGY ECONOMICS}, author={Doyle, Matthew and Fell, Harrison}, year={2018}, month={May}, pages={153–172} }
 @article{fell_maniloff_2018, title={Leakage in regional environmental policy: The case of the regional greenhouse gas initiative}, volume={87}, ISSN={["1096-0449"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.jeem.2017.10.007}, abstractNote={Subglobal and subnational greenhouse gas policies are often thought to be less effective than comprehensive policies as production and emissions of trade exposed industries may move from the regulated to the unregulated regions, a process referred to as “leakage”. Leakage negates some emission reductions from the regulated regions. We use detailed electricity generation and transmission data to show that this is the case for the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), a CO2 cap-and-trade program for the electricity sector in select Northeastern U.S. states. More specifically, our results indicate that RGGI induced a reduction in coal-fired generation in RGGI states and an increase in NGCC generation in RGGI-surrounding regions. This finding suggests that the pollution haven hypothesis holds for state-level variation in environmental policy, even when compliance costs are low.}, journal={JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT}, author={Fell, Harrison and Maniloff, Peter}, year={2018}, month={Jan}, pages={1–23} }
 @article{fell_kaffine_2018, title={The Fall of Coal: Joint Impacts of Fuel Prices and Renewables on Generation and Emissions}, volume={10}, ISSN={["1945-774X"]}, DOI={10.1257/pol.20150321}, abstractNote={ Since 2007, US coal-fired electricity generation has declined by a stunning 25 percent. Detailed daily unit-level data is used to examine the joint impact of natural gas prices and wind generation on coal-fired generation and emissions, with a focus on the interaction between gas prices and wind. This interaction is found to be significant. Marginal responses of coal-fired generation to natural gas prices (wind) in 2013 were larger, sometimes much larger, than the counterfactual with 2008 wind generation (gas prices). Additionally, these factors jointly account for the vast majority of the observed decline in generation and emissions. (JEL L94, L95, Q35, Q38, Q42, Q53) }, number={2}, journal={AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-ECONOMIC POLICY}, author={Fell, Harrison and Kaffine, Daniel T.}, year={2018}, month={May}, pages={90–116} }
 @article{pless_fell_2017, title={Bribes, bureaucracies, and blackouts: Towards understanding how corruption at the firm level impacts electricity reliability}, volume={47}, ISSN={["1873-0221"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.reseneeco.2016.11.001}, abstractNote={This paper looks at whether bribes for electricity connections affect electricity reliability. Using detailed firm-level data, we estimate various specifications based upon repeated cross-sections and means-based pseudo-panels to show that bribes are closely related to poorer electricity reliability. We find that the propensity to bribe for an electricity connection is associated with an increase of 14 power outages per month and a 22% increase in annual sales lost due to power outages on average. The results parallel a tragedy of the commons story: electricity, which exhibits common-pool resource characteristics, suffers from overexploitation as self-interested individual firms rationally bribe for electricity, creating negative impacts in aggregate on the overall quality of the resource. Given the importance of electricity reliability for economic growth and development, the findings imply that improving oversight and enforcement measures at the consumer level that target the reduction of bribery for electricity connections could contribute to growth and development.}, journal={RESOURCE AND ENERGY ECONOMICS}, author={Pless, Jacquelyn and Fell, Harrison}, year={2017}, month={Feb}, pages={36–55} }
 @article{chan_fell_lange_li_2017, title={Efficiency and environmental impacts of electricity restructuring on coal-fired power plants}, volume={81}, ISSN={["1096-0449"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.jeem.2016.08.004}, abstractNote={We investigate the efficiency and environmental impacts of electricity market restructuring by examining changes in fuel efficiency, cost of coal purchases, and utilization among coal-fired power plants based on a panel data set from 1991 to 2005. Our study focuses exclusively on coal-fired power plants and uses panel data covering several years after implementation of restructuring. The estimation compares how investor-owned (IOs) plants in states with restructuring changed their behavior relative to IOs in states without. Our analysis finds that restructuring led to: (1) a 1.4 percent improvement in fuel efficiency, (2) an 8 percent decrease in unit cost of heat input, and (3) a lower capacity factor even after adjusting for cross-plant generation re-allocation due to cost reductions. The estimates imply that restructuring has led to nearly 15 percent savings in operating expenses and up to 7.5 percent emissions reduction among these plants.}, journal={JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT}, author={Chan, H. Ron and Fell, Harrison and Lange, Ian and Li, Shanjun}, year={2017}, month={Jan}, pages={1–18} }
 @article{fell_kaffine_steinberg_2017, title={Energy Efficiency and Emissions Intensity Standards}, volume={4}, ISSN={["2333-5963"]}, DOI={10.1086/692015}, abstractNote={We investigate the role of energy efficiency in rate-based emissions intensity standards, a particularly policy-relevant consideration given that the Environmental Protection Agency’s Clean Power Plan allows crediting of electricity savings as a means of complying with state-specific emissions standards. We show that with perfectly inelastic energy services demand, crediting efficiency measures can recover the first-best allocation. However, when demand for energy services exhibits some elasticity, crediting energy efficiency can no longer recover first-best. While crediting removes the relative distortion between energy generation and energy efficiency, it distorts the absolute level of energy services. Building on these results, we derive the conditions determining the second-best intensity standard and crediting rule. Simulations calibrated to the electricity sector in Texas find that while some form of crediting is generally welfare-improving, the proposed one-for-one crediting of energy savings is unlikely to achieve efficient outcomes.}, journal={JOURNAL OF THE ASSOCIATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND RESOURCE ECONOMISTS}, author={Fell, Harrison and Kaffine, Daniel and Steinberg, Daniel}, year={2017}, month={Sep}, pages={S201–S226} }
 @article{galik_decarolis_fell_2017, title={Evaluating the US Mid-Century Strategy for Deep Decarbonization amidst early century uncertainty}, volume={17}, ISSN={1469-3062 1752-7457}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2017.1340257}, DOI={10.1080/14693062.2017.1340257}, abstractNote={The recent change in US presidential administrations has introduced significant uncertainty about both domestic and international policy support for continued reductions in GHG emissions. This brief analysis estimates the potential climate ramifications of changing US leadership, contrasting the Mid-Century Strategy for Deep Decarbonization (MCS) released under the Obama Administration, with campaign statements, early executive actions, and prevailing market conditions to estimate potential emission pathways under the Trump Administration. The analysis highlights areas where GHG reductions are less robust to changing policy conditions, and offers brief recommendations for addressing emissions in the interim. It specifically finds that continued reductions in the electricity sector are less vulnerable to changes in federal policy than those in the built environment and land use sectors. Given the long-lived nature of investments in these latter two sectors, however, opportunities for near-term climate action by willing cities, states, private landowners, and non-profit organizations warrant renewed attention in this time of climate uncertainty. Key policy insights The recent US presidential election has already impacted mitigation goals and practices, injecting considerable uncertainty into domestic and international efforts to address climate change. A strategic assessment issued in the final days of the Obama Administration for how to reach long-term climate mitigation objectives provides a baseline from which to gauge potential changes under the Trump Administration. Though market trends may continue to foster emission declines in the energy sector, emission reductions in the land use sector and the built environment are subject to considerable uncertainty. Regardless of actions to scale back climate mitigation efforts, US emissions are likely to be flat in the coming years. Assuming that emissions remain constant under President Trump and that reductions resume afterwards to meet the Obama Administration mid-century targets in 2050, this near-term pause in reductions yields a difference in total emissions equivalent to 0.3–0.6 years of additional global greenhouse gas emissions, depending on the number of terms served by a Trump Administration.}, number={8}, journal={Climate Policy}, publisher={Informa UK Limited}, author={Galik, Christopher S. and DeCarolis, Joseph F. and Fell, Harrison}, year={2017}, month={Jul}, pages={1046–1056} }
 @article{fell_2016, title={Comparing policies to confront permit over-allocation}, volume={80}, ISSN={0095-0696}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2016.01.001}, DOI={10.1016/j.jeem.2016.01.001}, abstractNote={Instability in cap-and-trade markets, particularly with respect to permit price collapses, has been an area of concern for regulators. To that end, several policies, including hybrid price-quantity mechanisms and the newly introduced “market stability reserve” (MSR) systems, have been introduced and even implemented in some cases. I develop a stochastic dynamic model of a cap-and-trade system, parameterized to values relevant to the European Union׳s Emission Trading System (EU ETS) to analyze the performance of these policies aimed at adding stability to the system or at least at reducing perceived over-allocations of permits. Results suggest that adaptive-allocation mechanisms such as a price collar or MSR can reduce permit over-allocations and permit price volatility in a more cost-effective manner than simply reducing scheduled permit allocations. However, it is also found that the performance of these adaptive allocation policies, and in particular the MSR, are greatly affected by assumed discount rates and policy parameters.}, journal={Journal of Environmental Economics and Management}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Fell, Harrison}, year={2016}, month={Nov}, pages={53–68} }
 @article{carbon content of electricity futures in phase ii of the eu ets_2015, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.5547/01956574.36.4.hfel}, DOI={10.5547/01956574.36.4.hfel}, abstractNote={ We estimate the relationship between electricity, fuel and carbon prices in Germany, France, the Netherlands, the Nord Pool market and Spain, using one-year futures for base and peakload prices for the years 2008-2011, corresponding to physical settlement during the second market phase of the EU ETS. We employ a series of estimation methods that allow for an increasing interaction between electricity and input prices on the one hand, and between electricity markets on the other. The results vary by country due to different generation portfolios. Overall, we find that (a) carbon costs are passed through fully in most countries; (b) under some model specifications, cost pass-through is higher during peakload than during baseload for France, Germany and the Netherlands; and (c) the results are sensitive to the degree of cross-commodity and cross-market interaction allowed. }, journal={The Energy Journal}, year={2015}, month={Oct} }
 @article{fell_kousky_2015, title={The value of levee protection to commercial properties}, volume={119}, ISSN={0921-8009}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2015.08.019}, DOI={10.1016/j.ecolecon.2015.08.019}, abstractNote={Levees have historically been a dominant approach to riverine flood control in the United States. Recent investigations have found many levees around the country are in substandard condition, however, and some communities are moving to upgrade and repair their levee systems. Little empirical work has examined how increasing flood protection from levees is valued. We present estimates of the capitalization of upgraded levee protection into commercial property prices in St. Louis County, Missouri. By using controls for surrounding land cover and coarsened exact matching to ensure close distribution between treatment and control on surrounding land cover, we attempt to isolate the price effect of the levee from agglomeration effects that may also be operating. We find that commercial properties protected by a 500-year levee do not have a statistically significant price discount as compared with properties not in a floodplain. We find the selling price of properties with levee protection to be higher (although also insignificant in many specifications) than those in a floodplain without levee protection.}, journal={Ecological Economics}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Fell, Harrison and Kousky, Carolyn}, year={2015}, month={Nov}, pages={181–188} }
 @article{fell_li_paul_2014, title={A new look at residential electricity demand using household expenditure data}, volume={33}, ISSN={0167-7187}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2014.02.001}, DOI={10.1016/j.ijindorg.2014.02.001}, abstractNote={Many electricity demand estimates have been obtained based on the assumption that consumers optimize with respect to known marginal prices, but increasing empirical evidence suggests that consumers are more likely to respond to average prices. Under this assumption, this paper develops a new strategy based on Generalized Method of Moments to estimate household electricity demand. Our demand estimation approach uses publicly available expenditure data and utility-level consumption data from several major U.S. cities, complementing studies that use individual billing data which are richer yet often proprietary. We estimate the price elasticity near − 0.50, which is at the upper end (in magnitude) among the estimates from previous studies. This could have important implications for policy analysis such as those on climate policies that may affect electricity prices.}, journal={International Journal of Industrial Organization}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Fell, Harrison and Li, Shanjun and Paul, Anthony}, year={2014}, month={Mar}, pages={37–47} }
 @article{fell_kaffine_2014, title={Can decentralized planning really achieve first-best in the presence of environmental spillovers?}, volume={68}, ISSN={0095-0696}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2014.04.001}, DOI={10.1016/j.jeem.2014.04.001}, abstractNote={It is generally accepted that decentralized policy choice in the presence of interjurisdictional spillovers is inefficient. Strikingly, Ogawa and Wildasin (2009) find that in a model with heterogenous jurisdictions, interjurisdictional capital flows, and interjurisdictional environmental damage spillovers, decentralized planning outcomes are equivalent to that under a centralized planner. We first show the critical importance of two key assumptions (no retirement of capital, fixed environmental damages per unit of capital) in obtaining this result. Second, we consider a more general model allowing for capital retirement and abatement activities and show that the outcome of a decentralized market generally differs from the solution of a centralized planner׳s social welfare-maximizing problem.}, number={1}, journal={Journal of Environmental Economics and Management}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Fell, Harrison and Kaffine, Daniel T.}, year={2014}, month={Jul}, pages={46–53} }
 @article{fell_linn_2013, title={Renewable electricity policies, heterogeneity, and cost effectiveness}, volume={66}, ISSN={0095-0696}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2013.03.004}, DOI={10.1016/j.jeem.2013.03.004}, abstractNote={Renewable electricity policies promote investment in renewable electricity generators and have become increasingly common around the world. Because of intermittency and the composition of other generators in the power system, the value of certain renewable – particularly wind and solar – varies across locations and technologies. This paper investigates the implications of this heterogeneity for the cost effectiveness of renewable electricity policies. A simple model of the power system shows that renewable electricity policies cause different investment mixes. Policies also differ according to their effect on electricity prices, and both factors cause the cost effectiveness to vary across policies. We use a detailed, long-run planning model that accounts for intermittency on an hourly basis to compare the cost effectiveness for a range of policies and alternative parameter assumptions. The differences in cost effectiveness are economically significant, where broader policies, such as an emissions price, outperform renewable electricity policies.}, number={3}, journal={Journal of Environmental Economics and Management}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Fell, Harrison and Linn, Joshua}, year={2013}, month={Nov}, pages={688–707} }
 @article{fell_burtraw_morgenstern_palmer_2012, title={Climate Policy Design with Correlated Uncertainties in Offset Supply and Abatement Cost}, volume={88}, ISSN={0023-7639 1543-8325}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.3368/le.88.3.589}, DOI={10.3368/le.88.3.589}, abstractNote={Emission offsets within cap-and-trade systems are widely believed to contain system costs and stabilize allowance prices. However, trends in offsets supply are uncertain, may be persistent, and may be correlated with other sources of uncertainty. In a dynamic stochastic model we find total costs increase, as does variability in allowance prices and emissions, as uncertainty in offsets becomes more persistent and, to a lesser extent, becomes negatively correlated with uncertainty in abatement costs. These results are amplified with risk sensitivity, larger annual offset limits, and competitive offset purchasing. Imposing an allowance price collar can mitigate cost increases and price variability. (JEL Q54, Q58)}, number={3}, journal={Land Economics}, publisher={University of Wisconsin Press}, author={Fell, H. and Burtraw, D. and Morgenstern, R. and Palmer, K.}, year={2012}, month={Jun}, pages={589–611} }
 @article{fell_mackenzie_pizer_2012, title={Prices versus quantities versus bankable quantities}, volume={34}, ISSN={0928-7655}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2012.05.004}, DOI={10.1016/j.reseneeco.2012.05.004}, abstractNote={Quantity-based regulation with banking allows regulated firms to shift obligations across time in response to periods of unexpectedly high or low marginal costs. Despite its wide prevalence in existing and proposed emission trading programs, banking has received limited attention in past welfare analyses of policy choice under uncertainty. We address this gap with a model of banking behavior that captures two key constraints: uncertainty about the future from the firm's perspective and a limit on negative bank values (e.g. borrowing). We show conditions where banking provisions reduce price volatility and lower expected costs compared to quantity policies without banking. For plausible parameter values related to U.S. climate change policy, we find that bankable quantities produce behavior quite similar to price policies for about two decades and, during this period, improve welfare by about a $1 billion per year over fixed quantities.}, number={4}, journal={Resource and Energy Economics}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Fell, Harrison and MacKenzie, Ian A. and Pizer, William A.}, year={2012}, month={Nov}, pages={607–623} }
 @article{fell_haynie_2012, title={SPATIAL COMPETITION WITH CHANGING MARKET INSTITUTIONS}, volume={28}, ISSN={0883-7252}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jae.2272}, DOI={10.1002/jae.2272}, abstractNote={SUMMARY}, number={4}, journal={Journal of Applied Econometrics}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Fell, Harrison and Haynie, Alan C.}, year={2012}, month={May}, pages={702–719} }
 @article{fell_burtraw_morgenstern_palmer_2012, title={Soft and hard price collars in a cap-and-trade system: A comparative analysis}, volume={64}, ISSN={0095-0696}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2011.11.004}, DOI={10.1016/j.jeem.2011.11.004}, abstractNote={We use a stochastic dynamic framework to compare price collars (price ceilings and floors) in a cap-and-trade system with uncertainty in the level of baseline emissions and costs. We consider soft collars, which provide limited volume of additional emission allowances (a reserve) at the price ceiling, and hard collars, which provide an unlimited supply of additional allowances, thereby preventing allowance prices from exceeding the price ceiling. Conversely, allowances are removed from the market if prices fall to the floor. We find that increasing the size of the reserve strictly lowers expected net present values of compliance costs; however, there is a diminishing effect as the allowance reserve is expanded. Most of the expected cost savings are achieved with a modest reserve. Consequently, a rather limited soft price collar could provide considerable assurance about cost while preventing the possibility that emissions could spiral out of control.}, number={2}, journal={Journal of Environmental Economics and Management}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Fell, Harrison and Burtraw, Dallas and Morgenstern, Richard D. and Palmer, Karen L.}, year={2012}, month={Sep}, pages={183–198} }
 @article{cost containment under cap and trade: a review of the literature_2011, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/101.00000044}, DOI={10.1561/101.00000044}, abstractNote={Cap and trade programs have been a commonly proposed method to regulate emissions of various pollutants. As many countries move forward with plans to regulate CO 2 emissions, concerns over containing the costs of such policies often arise given the relatively large scope of the programs. We review three cost containment mechanisms most commonly employed in existing cap and trade policies and/or discussed in the literature: banking and borrowing, hybrid policies, and emission offsets. For each of these mechanisms we discuss the theoretical basis for the policy, potential unintended consequences and, where applicable, the effectiveness of the policy as it has been used in practice.}, journal={International Review of Environmental and Resource Economics}, year={2011}, month={Oct} }
 @article{fell_moore_morgenstern_2011, title={Cost Containment under Cap and Trade: A Review of the Literature}, volume={5}, number={4}, journal={International Review of Environmental and Resource Economics}, author={Fell, H. and Moore, E. and Morgenstern, R.D.}, year={2011}, pages={285–307} }
 @article{fell_morgenstern_2010, title={Alternative Approaches to Cost Containment in a Cap-and-Trade System}, volume={47}, ISSN={0924-6460 1573-1502}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10640-010-9377-2}, DOI={10.1007/s10640-010-9377-2}, number={2}, journal={Environmental and Resource Economics}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Fell, Harrison and Morgenstern, Richard D.}, year={2010}, month={May}, pages={275–297} }
 @article{fell_haynie_2010, title={ESTIMATING TIME-VARYING BARGAINING POWER: A FISHERY APPLICATION}, volume={49}, ISSN={0095-2583}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1465-7295.2009.00275.x}, DOI={10.1111/j.1465-7295.2009.00275.x}, abstractNote={We propose an unobserved‐components‐inspired approach to estimate time‐varying bargaining power in bilateral bargaining frameworks. We apply the technique to an ex‐vessel fish market that changed management systems from a regulated open‐access system to an individual fishing quota (IFQ) system over the timespan analyzed. We find that post‐IFQ implementation fishers do improve their bargaining power and thus accrue more of the rents generated by the fishery. However, unlike previous studies, we find that fishers do not move to a point of complete rent extraction. Rather, fishers and processors appear to be in a near‐symmetric bargaining situation post‐IFQ implementation.}, number={3}, journal={Economic Inquiry}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Fell, Harrison and Haynie, Alan}, year={2010}, month={Apr}, pages={685–696} }
 @article{fell_2010, title={EU-ETS and Nordic Electricity: A CVAR Analysis}, volume={31}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.5547/issn0195-6574-ej-vol31-no2-1}, DOI={10.5547/issn0195-6574-ej-vol31-no2-1}, abstractNote={ A cointegrated vector autoregressive (CVAR) model is estimated to determine the dynamic relationship between Nordic wholesale electricity prices and EU emissions trading scheme (EU-ETS) CO2 allowance prices. An impulse response analysis reveals that electricity prices have large short-term responses to CO2 price shocks, but that this response dampens over time. Using hourly Nordic electricity spot market prices, I find that the value of short-term response of electricity prices to a shock in CO2 prices in off-peak hours is consistent with expected values for near complete pass-through of CO2 emission costs when coal-generated power is at the margin. Likewise, the estimates reveal that peak hour electricity price responses to CO2 price shocks are as expected for a market that has near complete pass-through of CO2 emission costs when natural gas-generated power is at the margin. These results further suggest the Nordic electricity market is pricing as a competitive market. }, number={2}, journal={The Energy Journal}, author={Fell, H.}, year={2010}, pages={219–239} }
 @article{fell_2009, title={Ex-vessel Pricing and IFQs: A Strategic Approach}, volume={24}, ISSN={0738-1360 2334-5985}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/mre.24.4.42629660}, DOI={10.1086/mre.24.4.42629660}, abstractNote={Abstract In this article, intraseasonal fishing is modeled as a differential game between fishers in a total allowable catch (TAC)–regulated fishery with and without individual fishing quotas (IFQs). Heterogeneous harvest values are included by incorporating time-specific harvest costs and a cumulative-harvest effect into fishers' profit functions. I also allow for strategic interaction among fishers via ex-vessel price dynamics. The equilibrium harvest strategies of the differential games are solved numerically through the use of a genetic algorithm. It is demonstrated how different harvesting sector environments lead to varying degrees of ex-vessel price increases when IFQs are implemented. The primary result shows that possible margins for competition among fishers, other than competition for a greater share of the TAC, can exist even under IFQ management and this competition, especially when combined with noncompetitive processors, may be substantial enough to prevent sizeable rent transfers from the processing sector to the harvesting sector. JEL Classification Codes: Q22, C73, C61}, number={4}, journal={Marine Resource Economics}, publisher={University of Chicago Press}, author={Fell, Harrison}, year={2009}, month={Jan}, pages={311–328} }
 @article{fell_2008, title={Rights‐Based Management and Alaska Pollock Processors' Supply}, volume={90}, ISSN={0002-9092 1467-8276}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8276.2008.01140.x}, DOI={10.1111/j.1467-8276.2008.01140.x}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={3}, journal={American Journal of Agricultural Economics}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Fell, Harrison}, year={2008}, month={Aug}, pages={579–592} }