@article{bobashev_norton_wechsberg_toussova_2014, title={Are You HIV Invincible? A Probabilistic Study of Discordant Couples in the Context of HIV Transmission}, volume={9}, ISSN={["1932-6203"]}, DOI={10.1371/journal.pone.0094799}, abstractNote={A number of factors have been identified that are related to sexual and injecting HIV transmission. We developed a probabilistic mathematical model to put these factors together and interpret risks in the context of individual behavior among injecting drug-using (IDU) couples in St. Petersburg, Russia. Some HIV-discordant couples have unprotected sex and sometimes inject drugs together but stay discordant for a long time, while some individuals acquire HIV on the first encounter. We considered existing estimates of HIV transmission risks through injecting and sexual contacts to develop a predictive survival model for an individual who is exposed to HIV through intimate relationships. We computed simulated survival curves for a number of behavioral scenarios and discussed sources of simulated uncertainty. We then applied the model to a longitudinal study of HIV-discordant couples and validated the model’s forecast. Although individual prediction of seroconversion time appeared impossible, the ability to rank behavioral patterns in terms of HIV risk and to estimate the probability of survival HIV-free will be important to educators and counselors.}, number={5}, journal={PLOS ONE}, author={Bobashev, Georgiy and Norton, Jacob and Wechsberg, Wendee and Toussova, Olga}, year={2014}, month={May} }
 @article{just_norton_traud_antonelli_poteate_backus_snyder-beattie_sanders_dunn_2014, title={Global biogeographic regions in a human-dominated world: the case of human diseases}, volume={5}, ISSN={["2150-8925"]}, url={http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-84919788790&partnerID=MN8TOARS}, DOI={10.1890/es14-00201.1}, abstractNote={Since the work of Alfred Russel Wallace, biologists have sought to divide the world into biogeographic regions that reflect the history of continents and evolution. These divisions not only guide conservation efforts, but are also the fundamental reference point for understanding the distribution of life. However, the biogeography of human‐associated species—such as pathogens, crops, or even house guests—has been largely ignored or discounted. As pathogens have the potential for direct consequences on the lives of humans, domestic animals, and wildlife it is prudent to examine their potential biogeographic history. Furthermore, if distinct regions exist for human‐associated pathogens, it would provide possible connections between human wellbeing and pathogen distributions, and, more generally, humans and the deep evolutionary history of the natural world. We tested for the presence of biogeographic regions for diseases of humans due to pathogens using country‐level disease composition data and compared the regions for vectored and non‐vectored diseases. We found discrete biogeographic regions for diseases, with a stronger influence of biogeography on vectored than non‐vectored diseases. We also found significant correlations between these biogeographic regions and environmental or socio‐political factors. While some biogeographic regions reflected those already documented for birds or mammals, others reflected colonial history. From the perspective of diseases caused by pathogens, humans have altered but not evaded the influence of ancient biogeography. This work is the necessary first step in examining the biogeographic relationship between humans and their associates.}, number={11}, journal={ECOSPHERE}, author={Just, Michael G. and Norton, Jacob F. and Traud, Amanda L. and Antonelli, Tim and Poteate, Aaron S. and Backus, Gregory A. and Snyder-Beattie, Andrew and Sanders, R. Wyatt and Dunn, Robert R.}, year={2014}, month={Nov} }