@article{white_petrasova_petras_tateosian_vukomanovic_mitasova_meentemeyer_2023, title={An open-source platform for geospatial participatory modeling in the cloud}, volume={167}, ISSN={["1873-6726"]}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2023.105767}, DOI={10.1016/j.envsoft.2023.105767}, abstractNote={Participatory modeling facilitates the co-production of knowledge and action by engaging stakeholders in research. However, the spatial dimensions of socio-environmental systems and decision-making are challenging to incorporate in participatory models, as developing interactive geospatial models requires specialized knowledge. Yet, many of society’s most pressing and complex socio-environmental problems require participatory modeling that is geospatial. Existing interactive online applications have broadened the audiences who can engage with geospatial models, but often do not provide a robust framework for interactive model development. Here, we develop an open-source platform, OpenPlains, to address barriers to participation in geospatial modeling by enabling researchers to develop interactive models that remove barriers to data aggregation and user engagement. OpenPlains consists of six new open-source libraries: OpenPlains, django-actina, grass-js-client, react-openplains, react-ol, and openplains-cli. We demonstrate OpenPlains through two web applications that work anywhere in the contiguous United States: a spatial–temporal watershed analysis application and an urban growth forecasting application.}, journal={ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={White, Corey T. and Petrasova, Anna and Petras, Vaclav and Tateosian, Laura G. and Vukomanovic, Jelena and Mitasova, Helena and Meentemeyer, Ross K.}, year={2023}, month={Sep} }
 @article{jones_vukomanovic_2023, title={Mapping South Florida Daily Fire Risk for Decision Support Using Fuel Type, Water Levels, and Burn History}, volume={6}, ISSN={["2571-6255"]}, DOI={10.3390/fire6060236}, abstractNote={Mapping fire risk in South Florida depends on spatially varying water levels, fuel characteristics, and topography. When surface water levels recede below the lowest topographic features (cypress strands, marshes, etc.), the ecosystem loses its natural, wetted fire breaks, and landscape-level fire risk increases. We developed a geospatial method to generate daily, categorical fire risk maps; the maps visualize low-to-high risk areas using a newly developed 100 m DEM, modeled water levels, fuel types, and fire management units. We assigned fire risk by creating a water level distribution for each unique combination of fuel type and fire management unit; fire risk was then assigned for each pixel based on risk percentiles commonly used by fire management agencies. Assigning risk based on unique fuel types and management units helped avoid over- or under-assigning fire risk that may occur when applying landscape-level “average” risk relationships. Daily maps also incorporated (1) energy release component data to better estimate fuel moisture and (2) historical burn footprints to reduce risk in recently burned areas. Our data-driven approach generated at management-relevant spatial scales may enable more informed prescribed burn planning and may increase the efficiency of staff and resource allocation across the landscape on high-wildfire-risk days.}, number={6}, journal={FIRE-SWITZERLAND}, author={Jones, Kate and Vukomanovic, Jelena}, year={2023}, month={Jun} }
 @article{smart_seekamp_van berkel_vukomanovic_smith_2023, title={Socio-spatial factors influence climate change adaptation decisions of rural coastal landowners}, volume={7}, ISSN={["1572-9761"]}, DOI={10.1007/s10980-023-01734-7}, journal={LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY}, author={Smart, Lindsey S. and Seekamp, Erin and Van Berkel, Derek and Vukomanovic, Jelena and Smith, Jordan W.}, year={2023}, month={Jul} }
 @article{vukomanovic_smart_koch_dale_plassin_byrd_beier_wilson_doyon_2023, title={Translating stakeholder narratives for participatory modeling in landscape ecology}, volume={7}, ISSN={["1572-9761"]}, DOI={10.1007/s10980-023-01724-9}, journal={LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY}, author={Vukomanovic, Jelena and Smart, Lindsey S. and Koch, Jennifer and Dale, Virginia H. and Plassin, Sophie and Byrd, Kristin B. and Beier, Colin and Wilson, Madison and Doyon, Frederik}, year={2023}, month={Jul} }
 @article{pharr_cooper_evans_moorman_voss_vukomanovic_marra_2023, title={Using citizen science data to investigate annual survival rates of resident birds in relation to noise and light pollution}, volume={7}, ISSN={["1573-1642"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.1007/s11252-023-01403-2}, DOI={10.1007/s11252-023-01403-2}, abstractNote={Abstract Exponential increases in anthropogenic noise and light pollution have accompanied growth of the built environment. Noise and light cause negative consequences for birds, such as disrupted navigation during migration, mortality from collisions with windows and other infrastructure, and reduced reproductive success, as well as some positive consequences, such as expanded night niches for behaviors associated with feeding, territoriality, and mating. Relatively less is known about noise and light effects on annual survival of non-migratory birds, so we conducted an exploratory study to examine variation in adult survival rates of seven avian species in relation to noise and light pollution. We used 20 years of band-resight data collected as a part of the Neighborhood Nestwatch Program (NN), a citizen science project run by the Smithsonian Migratory Bird Center, at 242 sites in greater Washington, D.C. USA. We estimated apparent survival and documented species-specific relationships with light and noise. Gray Catbird ( Dumetella carolinensis ) and House Wren ( Thryothorus aedon ) survival decreased and American Robin ( Turdus migratorius ) survival increased with greater amounts of anthropogenic light. Anthropogenic noise had no relationship with apparent survival for any of the seven species. Life-history trade-offs between survival and reproduction may account for differences in species-specific effects of light pollution. Future research should examine the availability of other fine scale environmental conditions, such as tree canopy cover, that might buffer avian exposure to noise and light pollution.}, journal={URBAN ECOSYSTEMS}, author={Pharr, Lauren D. and Cooper, Caren B. and Evans, Brian and Moorman, Christopher E. and Voss, Margaret A. and Vukomanovic, Jelena and Marra, Peter P.}, year={2023}, month={Jul} }
 @article{inglis_vukomanovic_petrasova_meentemeyer_2023, title={Viewscape change highlights shifting drivers of exurban development over time}, volume={238}, ISSN={["1872-6062"]}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2023.104833}, DOI={10.1016/j.landurbplan.2023.104833}, abstractNote={Exurban development has increased over recent decades, characterized by low-density, amenity-driven housing development, and shaped by the landscape’s visual quality, rural character and perceived quality of life. Viewscapes—the 3-dimensional portions of landscapes with which people form a connection—are one way to quantify visual character and assess how those aesthetic amenities interact with other drivers to shape exurban development. The extent to which a landscape changes over time due to anthropogenic and natural processes—such as new housing development or wildfire—has largely been overlooked in models of development that include viewscape metrics. In this study, we use an event-history analysis approach to model the relationship between known drivers, including viewscape metrics (area, land cover, terrain complexity and visible neighbors), and the timing of exurban development of 1,807 single-family residences in Boulder County, Colorado, USA between 1990 and 2020. Most viewscape metrics’ effects on the timing of new home builds varied by 5-year time interval, underscoring the constraints of temporally static development models. We found that houses were more likely to be located close to major roads, and with views of less complex terrain. Larger views and fewer visible neighbors emerged as predictors of development over the study period. In the early-2000s, developed sites favored sunnier aspects, and views that avoided burn scars and developed areas. After 2010, new homes sites avoided views of developed areas and favored forested views. Insight into changing relationships between viewscapes and exurban housing development can highlight the effects of landscape change on visual quality and the trade-offs inherent in housing location decisions. Exploring how viewscape drivers and their effects on development change over time offers land managers and policymakers a more detailed picture of the amenity factors shaping exurban development.}, journal={LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Inglis, Nicole C. and Vukomanovic, Jelena and Petrasova, Anna and Meentemeyer, Ross K.}, year={2023}, month={Oct} }
 @article{randall_inglis_smart_vukomanovic_2022, title={From Meadow to Map: Integrating Field Surveys and Interactive Visualizations for Invasive Species Management in a National Park}, volume={11}, ISSN={["2220-9964"]}, DOI={10.3390/ijgi11100525}, abstractNote={Invasive species are an important and growing issue of concern for land managers, and the ability to collect and visualize species coverage data is vital to the management of invasive and native species. This is particularly true of spatial data, which provides invaluable information on location, establishment rates, and spread rates necessary for managing habitats. However, current methods of collection are rarely integrated into a full management tool, making it difficult to quickly collect and visualize multiple years of data for multiple species. We created the Geospatial Meadow Management Tool (GMMT) to provide a complete framework from geospatial data collection to web visualization. We demonstrate the utility of our approach using Valley Forge National Historical Park meadow survey data. The GMMT was created through the ArcGIS suite of software, taking advantage of the modularity of multiple processes, and incorporating an online visualization dashboard that allows for quick and efficient data analysis. Using Valley Forge National Historical Park as a case study, the GMMT provides a wide range of useful species coverage data and visualizations that provide simple yet insightful ways to understand species distribution. This tool highlights the ability of a web-based visualization tool to be modified to incorporate the needs of users, providing powerful visuals for non-GIS experts. Future avenues for this work include highlighted open-data and community engagement, such as citizen science, to address the increasing threat of invasive species both on and off public lands.}, number={10}, journal={ISPRS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEO-INFORMATION}, author={Randall, Joshua and Inglis, Nicole C. and Smart, Lindsey and Vukomanovic, Jelena}, year={2022}, month={Oct} }
 @article{inglis_vukomanovic_costanza_singh_2022, title={From viewsheds to viewscapes: Trends in landscape visibility and visual quality research}, volume={224}, ISSN={["1872-6062"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.lurbplan.2022.104424}, journal={LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING}, author={Inglis, Nicole C. and Vukomanovic, Jelena and Costanza, Jennifer and Singh, Kunwar K.}, year={2022}, month={Aug} }
 @article{inglis_vukomanovic_costanza_singh_2022, title={From viewsheds to viewscapes: Trends in landscape visibility and visual quality research}, volume={224}, ISSN={["1872-6062"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.landurbplan.2022.104424}, abstractNote={The study of visibility and visual quality (VVQ) spans scientific disciplines, methods, frameworks and eras. Recent advances in line-of-sight computation and geographic information systems (GIS) have propelled VVQ research into the realm of high performance computing via a cache of geospatial tools accessible to a broad range of research disciplines. However, in the disciplines that use VVQ analysis most (archaeology, architecture, geosciences and planning), methods and terminology can vary markedly, which may encumber interdisciplinary progress. A multidisciplinary systematic review of past VVQ research is timely to assess past efforts and effectively advance the field. In this study, we summarize the state of VVQ research in a systematic review of peer-reviewed publications spanning the past two decades. Our search yielded 528 total studies, 176 of which we reviewed in depth. VVQ analysis in peer-reviewed research increased 21-fold in the last 20 years, applied primarily in archaeology and natural resources research. We found that methods, tools and study designs varied across disciplines and scales. Research disproportionately represented the Global North and primarily employed medium resolution bare-earth elevation models, despite their known limitations. We propose a framework for standardized reporting of methods that emphasizes cross-disciplinary collaboration to propel visibility research into the future.}, journal={LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING}, author={Inglis, Nicole C. and Vukomanovic, Jelena and Costanza, Jennifer and Singh, Kunwar K.}, year={2022}, month={Aug} }
 @article{singh_bhattarai_vukomanovic_2022, title={Landscape-scale hydrologic response of plant invasion relative to native vegetation in urban forests}, volume={802}, ISSN={["1879-1026"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.149903}, abstractNote={Large-scale invasion modifies watershed hydrology by changing surface runoff and lowering the seasonal availability of water to native plants. Due to costly field-based evapotranspiration (ET) measurements, which are highly localized and occasionally subject to instrument failure, landscape-scale water use assessments of invasive plants are infrequent. Therefore, the extent to which plant invaders alter water allocation between native and non-native vegetation in a given landscape is rarely assessed. We used a remote sensing-based ET modeling approach to measure the hydrologic response of an invasive shrub, Ligustrum sinense, across forests of the Charlotte Metropolitan Area, North Carolina. We hypothesized that this invader's widespread occurrence and dominant plant physiology significantly competes with native forests for water resources. We tested this hypothesis by comparing inter- and intra-annual variations in ET from invaded and uninvaded sites estimated using the surface-energy-balance system (SEBS) model and cloud-free Landsat images for the wettest (2003), driest (2007), and normal (2005 and 2011) water years. Our findings suggest that the water demand of L. sinense is higher than native forests (deciduous and evergreen) for most of the year except during the early spring and after high precipitation events. The daily ET flux of L. sinense was significantly different than evergreen vegetation during the driest year (2007) that, five years later (2011 - normal water year), was significantly different than both deciduous and evergreen vegetation types. This suggests that L. sinense consumes more water than native forest types, particularly during dry and normal precipitation years with increasing canopy cover over time making it a strong competitor with native vegetation for water resources in urban forests. Therefore, accounting for the hydrologic response of invasive plants and potential water savings from their removal from forests, particularly in water-scarce regions, may enable land managers and decision-makers to prioritize areas for monitoring and control efforts.}, journal={SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT}, author={Singh, Kunwar K. and Bhattarai, Nishan and Vukomanovic, Jelena}, year={2022}, month={Jan} }
 @article{vukomanovic_barbieri_knollenberg_yoshizumi_arroyo_2022, title={To travel or not to travel during COVID-19: The influence of political ideology on travel intentions in the USA}, volume={3}, ISSN={["2666-9579"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.annale.2022.100078}, abstractNote={• Most respondents were very concerned about traveling during COVID-19. • There is a relationship between travel during COVID-19 and political ideology. • Political ideology is a good predictor of travel attitudes during COVID-19. • Right-leaning respondents were more likely to travel if COVID conditions remain. • Political ideology should be considered in tourism-related policy and planning.}, number={2}, journal={ANNALS OF TOURISM RESEARCH EMPIRICAL INSIGHTS}, author={Vukomanovic, Jelena and Barbieri, Carla and Knollenberg, Whitney and Yoshizumi, Alexander and Arroyo, Claudia Gil}, year={2022}, month={Nov} }
 @article{zhang_chen_myint_zhou_hay_vukomanovic_meentemeyer_2022, title={UrbanWatch: A 1-meter resolution land cover and land use database for 22 major cities in the United States}, volume={278}, ISSN={["1879-0704"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.rse.2022.113106}, abstractNote={Very-high-resolution (VHR) land cover and land use (LCLU) is an essential baseline data for understanding fine-scale interactions between humans and the heterogeneous landscapes of urban environments. In this study, we developed a Fine-resolution, Large-area Urban Thematic information Extraction (FLUTE) framework to address multiple challenges facing large-area, high-resolution urban mapping, including the view angle effect, high intraclass and low interclass variation, and multiscale land cover types. FLUTE builds upon a teacher-student deep learning architecture, and includes two new feature extraction modules – Scale-aware Parsing Module (SPM) and View-aware Embedding Module (VEM). Our model was trained with a new benchmark database containing 52.43 million labeled pixels (from 2014 to 2017 NAIP airborne Imagery) to capture diverse LCLU types and spatial patterns. We assessed the credibility of FLUTE by producing a 1-meter resolution database named UrbanWatch for 22 major cities across the conterminous United States. UrbanWatch contains nine LCLU classes – building, road, parking lot, tree canopy, grass/shrub, water, agriculture, barren, and others, with an overall accuracy of 91.52%. We have further made UrbanWatch freely accessible to support urban-related research, urban planning and management, and community outreach efforts: https://urbanwatch.charlotte.edu.}, journal={REMOTE SENSING OF ENVIRONMENT}, author={Zhang, Yindan and Chen, Gang and Myint, Soe W. and Zhou, Yuyu and Hay, Geoffrey J. and Vukomanovic, Jelena and Meentemeyer, Ross K.}, year={2022}, month={Sep} }
 @article{smart_vukomanovic_sills_sanchez_2021, title={Cultural ecosystem services caught in a 'coastal squeeze' between sea level rise and urban expansion}, volume={66}, ISSN={["1872-9495"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102209}, DOI={10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102209}, abstractNote={Sea level rise and urbanization exert complex synergistic pressures on the provision of ecosystem services (ES) in coastal regions. Anticipating when and where both biophysical and cultural ES will be affected by these two types of coastal environmental change is critical for sustainable land-use planning and management. Biophysical (provisioning and regulating) services can be mapped using secondary data. We demonstrate an approach to mapping cultural ES by engaging stakeholders in iterative participatory mapping of personally and communally valuable cultural ES. We identify hotspots where highly valued cultural ES and high values for biophysical ES co-occur and generate spatially-explicit projections of sea level rise and urban expansion through 2060 to quantify impacts of the ‘coastal squeeze’ on ES. We study Johns Island, South Carolina, USA as an example of a vulnerable community in a low-lying region experiencing both rising water levels and a rapid influx of new residents and development. Our projections of environmental change through 2060 indicate that on Johns Island, cultural ES face disproportionately greater risk of decline than biophysical ES, with almost three quarters of the island’s cultural ES affected. We find that hotspots for cultural ES, such as community heritage sites and scenic vistas of oak-lined roads and marshes, rarely co-occur (only 3% area) with biophysical ES such as high values of carbon sequestration and agricultural production. This confirms the importance of engaging with local stakeholders to map cultural ES and puts them on a more level playing field with biophysical ES in decision-making contexts. Projected declines and limited overlap between biophysical and cultural ES highlight the need for tighter coordination between conservation and community planning, and for including locally valued cultural ES in assessments of threats posed by the ‘coastal squeeze’ of sea level rise and urban expansion.}, journal={GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Smart, Lindsey S. and Vukomanovic, Jelena and Sills, Erin O. and Sanchez, Georgina}, year={2021}, month={Jan} }
 @article{barnhart_vukomanovic_bourgeron_molotch_2021, title={Future land cover and climate may drive decreases in snow wind-scour and transpiration, increasing streamflow at a Colorado, USA headwater catchment}, volume={35}, ISSN={["1099-1085"]}, DOI={10.1002/hyp.14416}, abstractNote={Abstract Understanding how land cover change will impact water resources in snow‐dominated regions is of critical importance as these locations produce disproportionate runoff relative to their land area. We coupled a land cover evolution model with a spatially explicit, physics‐based, watershed process model to simulate land cover change and its impact on the water balance in a 5.0 km 2 headwater catchment spanning the alpine–subalpine transition on the Colorado Front Range. We simulated two potential futures both with greater air temperature (+4°C/century) and more precipitation (+15%/century, MP) or less precipitation (−15%/century, LP) from 2000 to 2100. Forest cover in the catchment increased from 72% in 2000 to 84% and 83% in 2050 and to 95% and 92% in 2100 for MP and LP, respectively. Surprisingly, increases in forest cover led to mean increases in annual streamflow production of 12 mm (6%) and 2 mm (1%) for MP and LP in 2050 with an annual control streamflow of 208 mm. In 2100, mean streamflow production increased by 91 mm (44%) and 61 mm (29%) for MP and LP. This result counters previous work as runoff production increased with forested area due to decreases in snow wind‐scour and increases in drifting leeward of vegetation, highlighting the need to better understand the impacts of forest expansion on the spatial pattern of snow scour, deposition and catchment effective precipitation. Identifying the hydrologic response of mountainous areas to climate warming induced land cover change is critically important due to the potential water resources impacts on downstream regions.}, number={11}, journal={HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES}, author={Barnhart, Theodore and Vukomanovic, Jelena and Bourgeron, Patrick and Molotch, Noah}, year={2021}, month={Nov} }
 @article{smart_vukomanovic_taillie_singh_smith_2021, title={Quantifying Drivers of Coastal Forest Carbon Decline Highlights Opportunities for Targeted Human Interventions}, volume={10}, ISSN={["2073-445X"]}, DOI={10.3390/land10070752}, abstractNote={As coastal land use intensifies and sea levels rise, the fate of coastal forests becomes increasingly uncertain. Synergistic anthropogenic and natural pressures affect the extent and function of coastal forests, threatening valuable ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration and storage. Quantifying the drivers of coastal forest degradation is requisite to effective and targeted adaptation and management. However, disentangling the drivers and their relative contributions at a landscape scale is difficult, due to spatial dependencies and nonstationarity in the socio-spatial processes causing degradation. We used nonspatial and spatial regression approaches to quantify the relative contributions of sea level rise, natural disturbances, and land use activities on coastal forest degradation, as measured by decadal aboveground carbon declines. We measured aboveground carbon declines using time-series analysis of satellite and light detection and ranging (LiDAR) imagery between 2001 and 2014 in a low-lying coastal region experiencing synergistic natural and anthropogenic pressures. We used nonspatial (ordinary least squares regression–OLS) and spatial (geographically weighted regression–GWR) models to quantify relationships between drivers and aboveground carbon declines. Using locally specific parameter estimates from GWR, we predicted potential future carbon declines under sea level rise inundation scenarios. From both the spatial and nonspatial regression models, we found that land use activities and natural disturbances had the highest measures of relative importance (together representing 94% of the model’s explanatory power), explaining more variation in carbon declines than sea level rise metrics such as salinity and distance to the estuarine shoreline. However, through the spatial regression approach, we found spatial heterogeneity in the relative contributions to carbon declines, with sea level rise metrics contributing more to carbon declines closer to the shore. Overlaying our aboveground carbon maps with sea level rise inundation models we found associated losses in total aboveground carbon, measured in teragrams of carbon (TgC), ranged from 2.9 ± 0.1 TgC (for a 0.3 m rise in sea level) to 8.6 ± 0.3 TgC (1.8 m rise). Our predictions indicated that on the remaining non-inundated landscape, potential carbon declines increased from 29% to 32% between a 0.3 and 1.8 m rise in sea level. By accounting for spatial nonstationarity in our drivers, we provide information on site-specific relationships at a regional scale, allowing for more targeted management planning and intervention. Accordingly, our regional-scale assessment can inform policy, planning, and adaptation solutions for more effective and targeted management of valuable coastal forests.}, number={7}, journal={LAND}, author={Smart, Lindsey S. and Vukomanovic, Jelena and Taillie, Paul J. and Singh, Kunwar K. and Smith, Jordan W.}, year={2021}, month={Jul} }
 @article{vukomanovic_randall_2021, title={Research trends in US national parks, the world's "living laboratories"}, volume={3}, ISSN={["2578-4854"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.414}, DOI={10.1111/csp2.414}, abstractNote={Abstract U.S. national parks are essential public assets for preserving natural and cultural resources and for decades have provided natural laboratories for scholarly research. However, park research, and how it may be biased, has not been inventoried at a national scale. Such a synthesis is crucial for assessing research needs and planning for the future. Here, we present the first comprehensive summary of national park research using nearly 7,000 peer‐reviewed research articles published since 1970. We report when and where these studies occurred, what academic disciplines were most represented, and who funded the research. Our findings show that publication rates increased rapidly during the 1990s and 2000s, but since about 2013 have declined. Over half of the studies occurred in five parks, with Yellowstone representing over a third of all studies, followed by Everglades, Great Smoky Mountains, Glacier, and Yosemite. Nearly half of the studies occurred in the Northwestern Forested Mountains ecoregion. The life sciences, particularly ecological studies, contributed the majority of park research, although the earth sciences dominated several arid ecoregions of the West. Federal agencies funded the largest proportion of research, followed by U.S. universities, non‐profit organizations, federal programs (mainly the National Science Foundation), state agencies, and private industry. Over a quarter of the research was supported by international sources. Recent declines in scholarly output suggest that national park research directions and funding opportunities should be examined.}, number={6}, journal={CONSERVATION SCIENCE AND PRACTICE}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Vukomanovic, Jelena and Randall, Joshua}, year={2021}, month={Jun} }
 @article{white_mitasova_bendor_foy_pala_vukomanovic_meentemeyer_2021, title={Spatially Explicit Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping for Participatory Modeling of Stormwater Management}, volume={10}, ISSN={["2073-445X"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.3390/land10111114}, DOI={10.3390/land10111114}, abstractNote={Addressing “wicked” problems like urban stormwater management necessitates building shared understanding among diverse stakeholders with the influence to enact solutions cooperatively. Fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) are participatory modeling tools that enable diverse stakeholders to articulate the components of a socio-environmental system (SES) and describe their interactions. However, the spatial scale of an FCM is rarely explicitly considered, despite the influence of spatial scale on SES. We developed a technique to couple FCMs with spatially explicit survey data to connect stakeholder conceptualization of urban stormwater management at a regional scale with specific stormwater problems they identified. We used geospatial data and flooding simulation models to quantitatively evaluate stakeholders’ descriptions of location-specific problems. We found that stakeholders used a wide variety of language to describe variables in their FCMs and that government and academic stakeholders used significantly different suites of variables. We also found that regional FCM did not downscale well to concerns at finer spatial scales; variables and causal relationships important at location-specific scales were often different or missing from the regional FCM. This study demonstrates the spatial framing of stormwater problems influences the perceived range of possible problems, barriers, and solutions through spatial cognitive filtering of the system’s boundaries.}, number={11}, journal={LAND}, publisher={MDPI AG}, author={White, Corey T. and Mitasova, Helena and BenDor, Todd K. and Foy, Kevin and Pala, Okan and Vukomanovic, Jelena and Meentemeyer, Ross K.}, year={2021}, month={Nov} }
 @article{vogler_vukomanovic_2021, title={Trends in United States Human Footprint Revealed by New Spatial Metrics of Urbanization and Per Capita Land Change}, volume={13}, ISSN={["2071-1050"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.3390/su132212852}, DOI={10.3390/su132212852}, abstractNote={Accelerations in population growth and urban expansion are transforming landscapes worldwide and represent a major sustainability challenge. In the United States, land conversion to impervious surfaces has outpaced population increases, yet there are few spatial metrics of urbanization and per capita land change available nationwide for assessing local to regional trends in human footprint. We quantified changes (2000–2010) in housing density, imperviousness, per capita land consumption, and land-use efficiency for block groups of the contiguous U.S. and examined national patterns and variation in these metrics along the urban–rural gradient and by megaregion. Growth in housing (+13.6%) and impervious development (+10.7%) resulted in losses of rural lands, primarily due to exurbanization and suburbanization. Mean per capita consumption increased in all density classes but was over 8.5 times greater in rural lands than in exurban, suburban, and urban areas. Urban and suburban areas had significantly lower mean consumption, yet change was unsustainable in 60% of these areas. Megaregions across the sprawling Sun Belt, spanning from Arizona to North Carolina, grew most unsustainably, especially compared to regions in the Pacific Northwest and Front Range. This work establishes 21st-century benchmarks that decision-makers can use to track local and regional per capita land change and sustainable growth in the U.S.; however, these metrics of the form, extent, rate, and efficiency of urbanization can be applied anywhere concurrent built-up area and population data are available over time. Our web mapping application allows anyone to explore spatial and temporal trends in human footprint and download metrics, and it is designed to be easily updatable with future releases of validated developed land cover, protected areas, and decennial Census data.}, number={22}, journal={SUSTAINABILITY}, publisher={MDPI AG}, author={Vogler, John B. and Vukomanovic, Jelena}, year={2021}, month={Nov} }
 @article{ferrante_vukomanovic_smart_2021, title={Uncovering Trends and Spatial Biases of Research in a US National Park}, volume={13}, ISSN={["2071-1050"]}, DOI={10.3390/su132111961}, abstractNote={National parks are vital public resources for the preservation of species and landscapes, and for decades have provided natural laboratories for studying environmental and cultural resources. Though significant scholarship has taken place in national parks, syntheses of research trends and biases are rarely available for needs assessments and decision making. In this paper, we demonstrate procedures to close this information gap using Congaree National Park (CNP) as an example of a protected area characterized by disparate research. We conducted a systematic review of research topics and funding sources of all peer-reviewed, published research conducted since its inception as a National Monument in 1976. We next paired our evaluation of research trends with a spatial analysis of study locations to uncover patterns and biases in research. A total of 49 peer-reviewed publications describing research conducted at CNP have been published between 1976–2018, with over 75% published since 2003. Quantitative studies accounted for nearly 90% of all studies, and vegetation was the most commonly studied discipline. Most studies were funded by federal agencies, with the National Park Service providing the most funding instances. Spatial analyses revealed statistically significant (p < 0.05) hotspots of studies near the park entrance, visitor center, roads, and hiking trails. In providing a comprehensive evaluation of research patterns and trends within a single park, we developed an approach that can be applied by managers in other parks or public lands to maximize the utility of past research, identify potentially valuable but understudied park resources, and prioritize research needs.}, number={21}, journal={SUSTAINABILITY}, author={Ferrante, Daniela Agostini and Vukomanovic, Jelena and Smart, Lindsey S.}, year={2021}, month={Nov} }
 @article{smart_taillie_poulter_vukomanovic_singh_swenson_mitasova_smith_meentemeyer_2020, title={Aboveground carbon loss associated with the spread of ghost forests as sea levels rise}, volume={15}, ISSN={["1748-9326"]}, url={http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-85092484857&partnerID=MN8TOARS}, DOI={10.1088/1748-9326/aba136}, abstractNote={Abstract Coastal forests sequester and store more carbon than their terrestrial counterparts but are at greater risk of conversion due to sea level rise. Saltwater intrusion from sea level rise converts freshwater-dependent coastal forests to more salt-tolerant marshes, leaving ‘ghost forests’ of standing dead trees behind. Although recent research has investigated the drivers and rates of coastal forest decline, the associated changes in carbon storage across large extents have not been quantified. We mapped ghost forest spread across coastal North Carolina, USA, using repeat Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) surveys, multi-temporal satellite imagery, and field measurements of aboveground biomass to quantify changes in aboveground carbon. Between 2001 and 2014, 15% (167 km 2 ) of unmanaged public land in the region changed from coastal forest to transition-ghost forest characterized by salt-tolerant shrubs and herbaceous plants. Salinity and proximity to the estuarine shoreline were significant drivers of these changes. This conversion resulted in a net aboveground carbon decline of 0.13 ± 0.01 TgC. Because saltwater intrusion precedes inundation and influences vegetation condition in advance of mature tree mortality, we suggest that aboveground carbon declines can be used to detect the leading edge of sea level rise. Aboveground carbon declines along the shoreline were offset by inland aboveground carbon gains associated with natural succession and forestry activities like planting (2.46 ± 0.25 TgC net aboveground carbon across study area). Our study highlights the combined effects of saltwater intrusion and land use on aboveground carbon dynamics of temperate coastal forests in North America. By quantifying the effects of multiple interacting disturbances, our measurement and mapping methods should be applicable to other coastal landscapes experiencing saltwater intrusion. As sea level rise increases the landward extent of inundation and saltwater exposure, investigations at these large scales are requisite for effective resource allocation for climate adaptation. In this changing environment, human intervention, whether through land preservation, restoration, or reforestation, may be necessary to prevent aboveground carbon loss.}, number={10}, journal={ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS}, author={Smart, Lindsey S. and Taillie, Paul J. and Poulter, Benjamin and Vukomanovic, Jelena and Singh, Kunwar K. and Swenson, Jennifer J. and Mitasova, Helena and Smith, Jordan W. and Meentemeyer, Ross K.}, year={2020}, month={Oct} }
 @article{inglis_vukomanovic_2020, title={Climate change disproportionately affects visual quality of cultural ecosystem services in a mountain region}, volume={45}, ISSN={["2212-0416"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.ecoser.2020.101190}, abstractNote={Expansive vistas in mountain systems make scenic viewscapes – the visible portions of a landscape with which people form a connection – essential providers of cultural ecosystem services (CES). Like the dynamic systems they encapsulate, mountain viewscapes are subject to change, but the CES they provide are rarely considered from future or dynamic perspectives. Here we forecasted change in CES, using climatic shifts of a culturally valuable tree species, quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides), along scenic byways as an example of how viewscapes change through time. We simulated future aspen distributions in the Colorado Rocky Mountains through 2120 under three climate change scenarios and computed change in aspen visibility in 32,949 viewscapes. Across each scenario, the total area of aspen and its visibility from byways declined, but visible declines were 1.5–3.1 fold greater than declines in the study area overall. Differences between visible and total aspen peaked in mid-elevations (2000–3000 m) where aspen is most abundant. In contrast, aspen is forecasted to increase and become disproportionately more visible from scenic byways at lower elevations. Mismatch between total and visible declines in aspen highlights opportunities for tighter connections between landscape planning and ecological research for more comprehensive understanding of future changes in CES.}, journal={ECOSYSTEM SERVICES}, author={Inglis, Nicole C. and Vukomanovic, Jelena}, year={2020}, month={Oct} }
 @article{zhang_chen_vukomanovic_singh_liu_holden_meentemeyer_2020, title={Recurrent Shadow Attention Model (RSAM) for shadow removal in high-resolution urban land-cover mapping}, volume={247}, ISSN={["1879-0704"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.rse.2020.111945}, abstractNote={Shadows are prevalent in urban environments, introducing high uncertainties to fine-scale urban land-cover mapping. In this study, we developed a Recurrent Shadow Attention Model (RSAM), capitalizing on state-of-the-art deep learning architectures, to retrieve fine-scale land-cover classes within cast and self shadows along the urban-rural gradient. The RSAM differs from the other existing shadow removal models by progressively refining the shadow detection result with two attention-based interacting modules – Shadow Detection Module (SDM) and Shadow Classification Module (SCM). To facilitate model training and validation, we also created a Shadow Semantic Annotation Database (SSAD) using the 1 m resolution (National Agriculture Imagery Program) NAIP aerial imagery. The SSAD comprises 103 image patches (500 × 500 pixels each) containing various types of shadows and six major land-cover classes – building, tree, grass/shrub, road, water, and farmland. Our results show an overall accuracy of 90.6% and Kappa of 0.82 for RSAM to extract the six land-cover classes within shadows. The model performance was stable along the urban-rural gradient, although it was slightly better in rural areas than in urban centers or suburban neighborhoods. Findings suggest that RSAM is a robust solution to eliminate the effects in high-resolution mapping both from cast and self shadows that have not received equal attention in previous studies.}, journal={REMOTE SENSING OF ENVIRONMENT}, author={Zhang, Yindan and Chen, Gang and Vukomanovic, Jelena and Singh, Kunwar K. and Liu, Yong and Holden, Samuel and Meentemeyer, Ross K.}, year={2020}, month={Sep} }
 @article{senzaki_barber_phillips_carter_cooper_ditmer_fristrup_mcclure_mennitt_tyrrell_et al._2020, title={Sensory pollutants alter bird phenology and fitness across a continent}, volume={587}, ISSN={["1476-4687"]}, DOI={10.1038/s41586-020-2903-7}, number={7835}, journal={NATURE}, author={Senzaki, Masayuki and Barber, Jesse R. and Phillips, Jennifer N. and Carter, Neil H. and Cooper, Caren B. and Ditmer, Mark A. and Fristrup, Kurt M. and McClure, Christopher J. W. and Mennitt, Daniel J. and Tyrrell, Luke P. and et al.}, year={2020}, month={Nov}, pages={605-+} }
 @article{inglis_vukomanovic_2020, title={Visualizing When, Where, and How Fires Happen in US Parks and Protected Areas}, volume={9}, ISSN={["2220-9964"]}, DOI={10.3390/ijgi9050333}, abstractNote={Fire management in protected areas faces mounting obstacles as climate change alters disturbance regimes, resources are diverted to fighting wildfires, and more people live along the boundaries of parks. Evidence-based prescribed fire management and improved communication with stakeholders is vital to reducing fire risk while maintaining public trust. Numerous national fire databases document when and where natural, prescribed, and human-caused fires have occurred on public lands in the United States. However, these databases are incongruous and non-standardized, making it difficult to visualize spatiotemporal patterns of fire and engage stakeholders in decision-making. We created interactive decision analytics (“VISTAFiRe”) that transform fire history data into clear visualizations of the spatial and temporal dimensions of fire and its management. We demonstrate the utility of our approach using Big Cypress National Preserve and Everglades National Park as examples of protected areas experiencing fire regime change between 1980 and 2017. Our open source visualizations may be applied to any data from the National Park Service Wildland Fire Events Geodatabase, with flexibility to communicate shifts in fire regimes over time, such as the type of ignition, duration and magnitude, and changes in seasonal occurrence. Application of the tool to Everglades and Big Cypress revealed that natural wildfires are occurring earlier in the wildfire season, while human-caused and prescribed wildfires are becoming less and more common, respectively. These new avenues of stakeholder communication are allowing the National Park Service to devise research plans to prepare for environmental change, guide resource allocation, and support decision-making in a clear and timely manner.}, number={5}, journal={ISPRS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEO-INFORMATION}, author={Inglis, Nicole C. and Vukomanovic, Jelena}, year={2020}, month={May} }
 @misc{vukomanovic_steelman_2019, title={A Systematic Review of Relationships Between Mountain Wildfire and Ecosystem Services}, volume={34}, ISSN={["1572-9761"]}, DOI={10.1007/s10980-019-00832-9}, number={5}, journal={LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY}, author={Vukomanovic, Jelena and Steelman, Toddi}, year={2019}, month={May}, pages={1179–1194} }
 @article{vukomanovic_skrip_meentemeyer_2019, title={Making It Spatial Makes It Personal: Engaging Stakeholders with Geospatial Participatory Modeling}, volume={8}, ISSN={["2073-445X"]}, url={https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/8/2/38}, DOI={10.3390/land8020038}, abstractNote={Participatory research methods are increasingly used to collectively understand complex social-environmental problems and to design solutions through diverse and inclusive stakeholder engagement. But participatory research rarely engages stakeholders to co-develop and co-interpret models that conceptualize and quantify system dynamics for comparing scenarios of alternate action. Even fewer participatory projects have engaged people using geospatial simulations of dynamic landscape processes and spatially explicit planning scenarios. We contend that geospatial participatory modeling (GPM) can confer multiple benefits over non-spatial approaches for participatory research processes, by (a) personalizing connections to problems and their solutions through visualizations of place, (b) resolving abstract notions of landscape connectivity, and (c) clarifying the spatial scales of drivers, data, and decision-making authority. We illustrate through a case study how GPM is bringing stakeholders together to balance population growth and conservation in a coastal region facing dramatic landscape change due to urbanization and sea level rise. We find that an adaptive, iterative process of model development, sharing, and revision drive innovation of methods and ultimately improve the realism of land change models. This co-production of knowledge enables all participants to fully understand problems, evaluate the acceptability of trade-offs, and build buy-in for management actions in the places where they live and work.}, number={2}, journal={LAND}, author={Vukomanovic, Jelena and Skrip, Megan M. and Meentemeyer, Ross K.}, year={2019}, month={Feb} }
 @article{vukomanovic_vogler_petrasova_2019, title={Modeling the connection between viewscapes and home locations in a rapidly exurbanizing region}, volume={78}, ISSN={["1873-7587"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2019.101388}, abstractNote={Low-density exurban development represents a unique form of landscape change motivated by aesthetics and individual choice, whether driven by perceptions of beauty or more broadly as worldviews expressed through outward appearance and actions. However, little is known about how individual preferences for new home sites manifest in landscape patterns of exurbanization. In this study, we examine the extent to which viewscapes - the visible part of a landscape that creates connection between people and their surroundings - drive patterns of development in the Sonoita Plain of Arizona. We mapped the locations of over 2,000 homes built before and after the Great Recession (~2010) and calculated line-of-sight viewscapes of each home with four metrics: viewscape area, privacy (number of visible neighbors), greenness (NDVI), and terrain ruggedness. We found that exurban homes have significantly larger and more private viewscapes compared to suburban homes and what would be expected by chance. After 2010, exurban homes were built at locations with yet larger and more private viewscapes even as settlement density increased. An autologistic model of post-2010 settlement patterns showed that viewscape privacy is positively associated with the probability of exurban development after accounting for road proximity and the area and greenness of viewscapes. Application of the predictive model was made possible through a new open-source algorithm that computes spatially continuous, all-possible vantage points (1.3M). Our algorithm allows planners to visualize wall-to-wall spatial patterns of viewscape drivers across a large region and more comprehensively consider the roles that viewscapes play in landscape change.}, journal={COMPUTERS ENVIRONMENT AND URBAN SYSTEMS}, author={Vukomanovic, Jelena and Vogler, John B. and Petrasova, Anna}, year={2019}, month={Nov} }
 @article{vukomanovic_singh_petrasova_vogler_2018, title={Not seeing the forest for the trees: Modeling exurban viewscapes with LiDAR}, volume={170}, ISSN={["1872-6062"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.landurbplan.2017.10.010}, abstractNote={Abstract Viewscapes are the visible portions of a landscape that create a visual connection between a human observer and their 3-dimensional surroundings. However, most large area line-of-sight studies have modeled viewscapes using bare-earth digital elevation models, which exclude the 3-D elements of built and natural environments needed to comprehensively understand the scale, complexity and naturalness of an area. In this study, we compared viewscapes derived from LiDAR bare earth (BE) and top-of-canopy (ToC) surface models for 1000 exurban homes in a region of the Rocky Mountains, USA that is experiencing rapid low-density growth. We examined the extent to which the vertical structure of trees and neighboring houses in ToC models – not accounted for in BE models – affect the size and quality of each home’s viewscape. ToC models consistently produced significantly smaller viewscapes compared to BE models across five resolutions of LiDAR-derived models (1, 5, 10, 15, and 30-m). As resolution increased, both ToC and BE models produced increasingly larger, exaggerated viewscapes. Due to their exaggerated size, BE models overestimated the greenness and diversity of vegetation types in viewscapes and underestimated ruggedness of surrounding terrain compared to more realistic ToC models. Finally, ToC models also resulted in more private viewscapes, with exurban residents seeing almost three times fewer neighbors compared to BE models. These findings demonstrate that viewscape studies should consider both vertical and horizontal dimensions of built and natural environments in landscape and urban planning applications.}, journal={LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING}, author={Vukomanovic, Jelena and Singh, Kunwar K. and Petrasova, Anna and Vogler, John B.}, year={2018}, month={Feb}, pages={169–176} }
 @article{fischer_spies_steelman_moseley_johnson_bailey_ager_bourgeron_charnley_collins_et al._2016, title={Wildfire risk as a socioecological pathology}, volume={14}, ISSN={1540-9295}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/FEE.1283}, DOI={10.1002/FEE.1283}, abstractNote={Wildfire risk in temperate forests has become a nearly intractable problem that can be characterized as a socioecological “pathology”: that is, a set of complex and problematic interactions among social and ecological systems across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Assessments of wildfire risk could benefit from recognizing and accounting for these interactions in terms of socioecological systems, also known as coupled natural and human systems (CNHS). We characterize the primary social and ecological dimensions of the wildfire risk pathology, paying particular attention to the governance system around wildfire risk, and suggest strategies to mitigate the pathology through innovative planning approaches, analytical tools, and policies. We caution that even with a clear understanding of the problem and possible solutions, the system by which human actors govern fire-prone forests may evolve incrementally in imperfect ways and can be expected to resist change even as we learn better ways to manage CNHS.}, number={5}, journal={Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Fischer, A Paige and Spies, Thomas A and Steelman, Toddi A and Moseley, Cassandra and Johnson, Bart R and Bailey, John D and Ager, Alan A and Bourgeron, Patrick and Charnley, Susan and Collins, Brandon M and et al.}, year={2016}, month={Jun}, pages={276–284} }