@article{jones_jones_petrasova_petras_gaydos_skrip_takeuchi_bigsby_meentemeyer_2021, title={Iteratively forecasting biological invasions with PoPS and a little help from our friends}, volume={6}, ISSN={["1540-9309"]}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/fee.2357}, DOI={10.1002/fee.2357}, abstractNote={Ecological forecasting has vast potential to support environmental decision making with repeated, testable predictions across management‐relevant timescales and locations. Yet resource managers rarely use co‐designed forecasting systems or embed them in decision making. Although prediction of planned management outcomes is particularly important for biological invasions to optimize when and where resources should be allocated, spatial–temporal models of spread typically have not been openly shared, iteratively updated, or interactive to facilitate exploration of management actions. We describe a species‐agnostic, open‐source framework – called the Pest or Pathogen Spread (PoPS) Forecasting Platform – for co‐designing near‐term iterative forecasts of biological invasions. Two case studies are presented to demonstrate that iterative calibration yields higher forecast skill than using only the earliest‐available data to predict future spread. The PoPS framework is a primary example of an ecological forecasting system that has been both scientifically improved and optimized for real‐world decision making through sustained participation and use by management stakeholders.}, number={7}, journal={FRONTIERS IN ECOLOGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Jones, Chris M. and Jones, Shannon and Petrasova, Anna and Petras, Vaclav and Gaydos, Devon and Skrip, Megan M. and Takeuchi, Yu and Bigsby, Kevin and Meentemeyer, Ross K.}, year={2021}, month={Jun} }
 @article{youth_hess_peterson_mchale_bigsby_2015, title={Demographic shifts around drinking water supply reservoirs in North Carolina, USA}, volume={21}, ISSN={1354-9839 1469-6711}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13549839.2015.1035240}, DOI={10.1080/13549839.2015.1035240}, abstractNote={Infrastructure intended to serve the public good frequently has implications for environmental justice and social sustainability. Drinking water supplies for sub/urban areas in North Carolina, USA, have regularly been secured by constructing dams to impound reservoirs. We used high-resolution, publicly available US Census data to explore whether 66 such reservoirs in North Carolina have induced demographic shifts in the communities that find themselves adjacent to the newly created lakeshores. Our principal findings include: (1) The ratio of white people to non-white people was significantly higher in communities within 0.5 miles of reservoir shorelines than in more distant communities; (2) even as North Carolina overall became less white from 1990 to 2010, the ratio of white people to non-white people within the 0.5 miles of the shoreline increased relative to the overall ratio in the State; and (3) similar, but less distinct, shifts in per capita income occurred during the period. Our results are consistent with the proposition that reservoirs have induced demographic shifts in communities adjacent to newly created lakeshores similar to the shifts associated with environmental gentrification and amenity migration, and may now be associated with perpetuating those shifts. These findings raise concerns about environmental justice and social sustainability that should be considered when planning and building infrastructure that creates environmental amenities. Where reservoirs are being planned, social costs, including the costs of demographic shifts associated with environmental gentrification or amenity migration, and disproportionate regulatory burdens, should be mitigated through innovative policy if possible.}, number={7}, journal={Local Environment}, publisher={Informa UK Limited}, author={Youth, Michael D. and Hess, George R. and Peterson, M. Nils and McHale, Melissa R. and Bigsby, Kevin M.}, year={2015}, month={Apr}, pages={827–843} }
 @article{bigsby_ambrose_tobin_sills_2014, title={The cost of gypsy moth sex in the city}, volume={13}, ISSN={["1610-8167"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.ufug.2014.05.003}, abstractNote={Since its introduction in the 1860s, gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (L.), has periodically defoliated large swaths of forest in the eastern United States. Prior research has suggested that the greatest costs and losses from these outbreaks accrue in residential areas, but these impacts have not been well quantified. We addressed this lacuna with a case study of Baltimore City. Using two urban tree inventories, we estimated potential costs and losses from a range of gypsy moth outbreak scenarios under different environmental and management conditions. We combined outbreak scenarios with urban forest data to model defoliation and mortality and based the costs and losses on the distribution of tree species in different size classes and land uses throughout Baltimore City. In each outbreak, we estimated the costs of public and private suppression, tree removal and replacement, and human medical treatment, as well as the losses associated with reduced pollution uptake, increased carbon emissions and foregone sequestration. Of the approximately 2.3 M trees in Baltimore City, a majority of the basal area was primary or secondary host for gypsy moth. Under the low outbreak scenario, with federal and state suppression efforts, total costs and losses were $5.540 M, much less than the $63.666 M estimated for the high outbreak scenario, in which the local public and private sectors were responsible for substantially greater tree removal and replacement costs. The framework that we created can be used to estimate the impacts of other non-native pests in urban environments.}, number={3}, journal={URBAN FORESTRY & URBAN GREENING}, author={Bigsby, Kevin M. and Ambrose, Mark J. and Tobin, Patrick C. and Sills, Erin O.}, year={2014}, pages={459–468} }
 @article{bigsby_mchale_hess_2014, title={Urban Morphology Drives the Homogenization of Tree Cover in Baltimore, MD, and Raleigh, NC}, volume={17}, ISSN={["1435-0629"]}, DOI={10.1007/s10021-013-9718-4}, number={2}, journal={ECOSYSTEMS}, author={Bigsby, Kevin M. and McHale, Melissa R. and Hess, George R.}, year={2014}, month={Mar}, pages={212–227} }
 @article{bigsby_tobin_sills_2011, title={Anthropogenic drivers of gypsy moth spread}, volume={13}, ISSN={1387-3547 1573-1464}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10530-011-0027-6}, DOI={10.1007/s10530-011-0027-6}, number={9}, journal={Biological Invasions}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Bigsby, Kevin M. and Tobin, Patrick C. and Sills, Erin O.}, year={2011}, month={Jun}, pages={2077–2090} }