@article{jena_zhang_wang_campbell_2023, title={Decadal Application of WRF/Chem under Future Climate and Emission Scenarios: Impacts of Technology-Driven Climate and Emission Changes on Regional Meteorology and Air Quality}, volume={14}, ISSN={["2073-4433"]}, DOI={10.3390/atmos14020225}, abstractNote={This work presents new climate and emissions scenarios to investigate changes on future meteorology and air quality in the U.S. Here, we employ a dynamically downscaled Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF/Chem) simulations that use two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios (i.e., A1B and B2) integrated with explicitly projected emissions from a novel Technology Driver Model (TDM). The projected 2046–2055 emissions show widespread reductions in most gas and aerosol species under both TDM/A1B and TDM/B2 scenarios over the U.S. The WRF/Chem simulations show that under the combined effects of the TDM/A1B climate and emission changes, the maximum daily average 8-h ozone (MDA8 h O3) increases by ~3 ppb across the U.S. mainly due to widespread increases in near-surface temperature and background methane concentrations, with some contributions from localized TDM emission changes near urban centers. For the TDM/B2 climate and emission changes, however, the MDA8 h O3 is widely decreased, except near urban centers where the relative TDM emission changes and O3 formation regimes leads to increased O3. The number of O3 exceedance days (i.e., MDA8 h O3 > 70 ppb) for the entire domain is significantly reduced by a grid cell maximum of up to 43 days (domain average ~0.5 days) and 62 days (domain average ~2 days) for the TDM/A1B and TDM/B2 scenarios, respectively, while in the western U.S., larger O3 increases lead to increases in nonattainment areas, especially for the TDM/A1B scenario. The combined effects of climate and emissions (for both A1B and B2 scenarios) will lead to widespread decreases in the daily 24-h average (DA24 h) PM2.5 concentrations, especially in the eastern U.S. (max decrease up to 93 µg m−3). The PM2.5 changes are dominated by decreases in anthropogenic emissions for both the TDM/A1B and TDM/B2 scenarios, with secondary effects on decreasing PM2.5 from climate change. The number of PM2.5 exceedance days (i.e., DA24 h PM2.5 > 35 µg m−3) is significantly reduced over the eastern U.S. under both TDM/A1B and B2 scenarios, which suggests that both climate and emission changes may synergistically lead to decreases in PM2.5 nonattainment areas in the future.}, number={2}, journal={ATMOSPHERE}, author={Jena, Chinmay and Zhang, Yang and Wang, Kai and Campbell, Patrick C.}, year={2023}, month={Feb} }
 @article{uttamang_campbell_aneja_hanna_2020, title={A multi-scale model analysis of ozone formation in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region, Thailand}, volume={229}, ISSN={["1873-2844"]}, url={http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-85083337226&partnerID=MN8TOARS}, DOI={10.1016/j.atmosenv.2020.117433}, abstractNote={Abstract Over the last three decades, Thailand's rapid industrialization and urbanization have led to an impact on urban air quality. A majority of the country's development has occurred within and around Bangkok (BKK), the capital city of Thailand, and the Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR). Since 1995, the BMR has experienced air quality degradation, in particular, enhanced ozone (O3) due to a combination of the local increase in emissions from accelerated growth in automotive and industrial activities, local meteorology including strong solar radiation, high temperature and high humidity, and potential long-range effects of regional transport from China. To investigate the O3 formation in the BMR due to the effects of long-range transport and local meteorology feedbacks, we perform a multi-scale simulation with the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) during the O3 season (January to March), 2010; since O3 mixing ratio exceedances in the BMR occur primarily during this period The results in this study indicate the significance of China's emission reductions on the regional-scale and the local-scale pollution, as far as the BMR region and southern Thailand. Applying China's oxide of nitrogen (NOx)-only emission controls, generally, enhance the domain-wide monthly-average peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) and O3 in the regional scale, in the order of ~1–7% and ~1–5%, respectively, while those in the local scale are ~ 0.2–6% and ~0.1–5% compared with the baseline simulation. However, the increases in PAN and O3 are mitigated by 40% China's Volatile Organic Compound (VOC) reduction along with 40% NOx reduction. The results, supported by an indicator analysis, suggest that northern and eastern China, northern and central Thailand and the BMR, are likely VOC-limited during the O3 season. Since the BMR is VOC-limited regime, controlling anthropogenic VOC emissions will show more benefit to control O3 than controlling NOx-only emissions. Other factors that influence on O3 levels in the BMR are biogenic VOC emissions from the Tenasserim range and land- and sea-breeze circulations that recirculate and disperse pollutants along the coastal areas.}, journal={ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT}, author={Uttamang, Pornpan and Campbell, Patrick C. and Aneja, Viney P. and Hanna, Adel F.}, year={2020}, month={May} }
 @article{yahya_wang_campbell_chen_glotfelty_he_pirhalla_zhang_2017, title={Decadal application of WRF/Chem for regional air quality and climate modeling over the US under the representative concentration pathways scenarios. Part 1: Model evaluation and impact of downscaling}, volume={152}, ISSN={["1873-2844"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.atmosenv.2016.12.029}, abstractNote={Abstract An advanced online-coupled meteorology-chemistry model, i.e., the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry (WRF/Chem), is applied for current (2001–2010) and future (2046–2055) decades under the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios to examine changes in future climate, air quality, and their interactions. In this Part I paper, a comprehensive model evaluation is carried out for current decade to assess the performance of WRF/Chem and WRF under both scenarios and the benefits of downscaling the North Carolina State University's (NCSU) version of the Community Earth System Model (CESM_NCSU) using WRF/Chem. The evaluation of WRF/Chem shows an overall good performance for most meteorological and chemical variables on a decadal scale. Temperature at 2-m is overpredicted by WRF (by ∼0.2–0.3 °C) but underpredicted by WRF/Chem (by ∼0.3–0.4 °C), due to higher radiation from WRF. Both WRF and WRF/Chem show large overpredictions for precipitation, indicating limitations in their microphysics or convective parameterizations. WRF/Chem with prognostic chemical concentrations, however, performs much better than WRF with prescribed chemical concentrations for radiation variables, illustrating the benefit of predicting gases and aerosols and representing their feedbacks into meteorology in WRF/Chem. WRF/Chem performs much better than CESM_NCSU for most surface meteorological variables and O3 hourly mixing ratios. In addition, WRF/Chem better captures observed temporal and spatial variations than CESM_NCSU. CESM_NCSU performance for radiation variables is comparable to or better than WRF/Chem performance because of the model tuning in CESM_NCSU that is routinely made in global models.}, journal={ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT}, author={Yahya, Khairunnisa and Wang, Kai and Campbell, Patrick and Chen, Ying and Glotfelty, Timothy and He, Jian and Pirhalla, Michael and Zhang, Yang}, year={2017}, month={Mar}, pages={562–583} }
 @article{yahya_campbell_zhang_2017, title={Decadal application of WRF/chem for regional air quality and climate modeling over the US under the representative concentration pathways scenarios. Part 2: Current vs. future simulations}, volume={152}, ISSN={["1873-2844"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.atmosenv.2016.12.028}, abstractNote={Abstract Following a comprehensive model evaluation, this Part II paper presents projected changes in future (2046–2055) climate, air quality, and their interactions under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios using the Weather, Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF/Chem). In general, both WRF/Chem RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 simulations predict similar increases on average (∼2 °C) for 2-m temperature (T2) but different spatial distributions of the projected changes in T2, 2-m relative humidity, 10-m wind speed, precipitation, and planetary boundary layer height, due to differences in the spatial distributions of projected emissions, and their feedbacks into climate. Future O3 mixing ratios will decrease for most parts of the U.S. under the RCP4.5 scenario but increase for all areas under the RCP8.5 scenario due to higher projected temperature, greenhouse gas concentrations and biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOC) emissions, higher O3 values for boundary conditions, and disbenefit of NOx reduction and decreased NO titration over VOC-limited O3 chemistry regions. Future PM2.5 concentrations will decrease for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios with different trends in projected concentrations of individual PM species. Total cloud amounts decrease under both scenarios in the future due to decreases in PM and cloud droplet number concentration thus increased radiation. Those results illustrate the impacts of carbon policies with different degrees of emission reductions on future climate and air quality. The WRF/Chem and WRF simulations show different spatial patterns for projected changes in T2 for future decade, indicating different impacts of prognostic and prescribed gas/aerosol concentrations, respectively, on climate change.}, journal={ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT}, author={Yahya, Khairunnisa and Campbell, Patrick and Zhang, Yang}, year={2017}, month={Mar}, pages={584–604} }
 @article{yahya_wang_campbell_glotfelty_he_zhang_2016, title={Decadal evaluation of regional climate, air quality, and their interactions over the continental US and their interactions using WRF/Chem version 3.6.1}, volume={9}, number={2}, journal={Geoscientific Model Development}, author={Yahya, K. and Wang, K. and Campbell, P. and Glotfelty, T. and He, J. and Zhang, Y.}, year={2016}, pages={671–695} }
 @article{campbell_zhang_yahya_wang_hogrefe_pouliot_knote_hodzic_san jose_perez_et al._2015, title={A multi-model assessment for the 2006 and 2010 simulations under the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) phase 2 over North America: Part I. Indicators of the sensitivity of O-3 and PM2.5 formation regimes}, volume={115}, ISSN={["1873-2844"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.atmosenv.2014.12.026}, abstractNote={Abstract Under the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative, Phase 2 (AQMEII-2), three online-coupled air quality model simulations, with six different configurations, are analyzed for their performance, inter-model agreement, and responses to emission and meteorological changes between 2006 and 2010. In this Part I paper, we focus on evaluating O 3 and PM 2.5 indicator-based analyses, which are important in the development of applicable control strategies of O 3 and PM 2.5 pollution in different regions worldwide. The O 3 indicators agree on widespread NO x -limited and localized VOC-limited conditions in the U.S. The NO y and O 3 /NO y indicators overpredict the extent of the VOC-limited chemistry in southeast U.S., but are more robust than the H 2 O 2 /HNO 3 , HCHO/NO y , and HCHO/NO 2 indicators at the surface, which exhibit relatively more inter-model variability. The column HCHO/NO 2 indicator is underpredicted in the O 3 and non-O 3 seasons, but there is regional variability. For surface PM 2.5 indicators, there is good inter-model agreement for the degree of sulfate neutralization; however there are systematic underpredictions in the southeast U.S. There is relatively poor inter-model agreement for the less robust adjusted gas ratio indicator, which is largely overpredicted in the summer and both under- and overpredicted in winter in the southeast U.S. There is good inter-model agreement for the O 3 indicator sensitivities, indicating a predominant shift to more NO x -limited conditions in 2010 relative to 2006. There is less agreement for PM 2.5 indicator sensitivities, which are less robust, while indicating shifts to either regime due to different responses of aerosol treatments to changes in emissions and meteorology.}, journal={ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT}, author={Campbell, Patrick and Zhang, Yang and Yahya, Khairunnisa and Wang, Kai and Hogrefe, Christian and Pouliot, George and Knote, Christoph and Hodzic, Alma and San Jose, Roberto and Perez, Juan L. and et al.}, year={2015}, month={Aug}, pages={569–586} }