@article{lacy_khan_nath_das_igoe_lenhart_lloyd_lanzas_odoi_2024, title={Geographic disparities and predictors of COVID-19 vaccination in Missouri: a retrospective ecological study}, volume={12}, ISSN={["2296-2565"]}, DOI={10.3389/fpubh.2024.1329382}, abstractNote={BackgroundLimited information is available on geographic disparities of COVID-19 vaccination in Missouri and yet this information is essential for guiding efforts to improve vaccination coverage. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to (a) investigate geographic disparities in the proportion of the population vaccinated against COVID-19 in Missouri and (b) identify socioeconomic and demographic predictors of the identified disparities.}, journal={FRONTIERS IN PUBLIC HEALTH}, author={Lacy, Alexanderia and Khan, Md Marufuzzaman and Nath, Nirmalendu Deb and Das, Praachi and Igoe, Morganne and Lenhart, Suzanne and Lloyd, Alun L. and Lanzas, Cristina and Odoi, Agricola}, year={2024}, month={Mar} }
 @article{das_igoe_lacy_farthing_timsina_lanzas_lenhart_odoi_lloyd_2024, title={Modeling county level COVID-19 transmission in the greater St. Louis area: Challenges of uncertainty and identifiability when fitting mechanistic models to time-varying processes}, volume={371}, ISSN={["1879-3134"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109181}, abstractNote={We use a compartmental model with a time-varying transmission parameter to describe county level COVID-19 transmission in the greater St. Louis area of Missouri and investigate the challenges in fitting such a model to time-varying processes. We fit this model to synthetic and real confirmed case and hospital discharge data from May to December 2020 and calculate uncertainties in the resulting parameter estimates. We also explore non-identifiability within the estimated parameter set. We determine that that death rate of infectious non-hospitalized individuals, the testing parameter and the initial number of exposed individuals are not identifiable based on an investigation of correlation coefficients between pairs of parameter estimates. We also explore how this non-identifiability ties back into uncertainties in the estimated parameters and find that it inflates uncertainty in the estimates of our time-varying transmission parameter. However, we do find that R0 is not highly affected by non-identifiability of its constituent components and the uncertainties associated with the quantity are smaller than those of the estimated parameters. Parameter values estimated from data will always be associated with some uncertainty and our work highlights the importance of conducting these analyses when fitting such models to real data. Exploring identifiability and uncertainty is crucial in revealing how much we can trust the parameter estimates.}, journal={MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES}, author={Das, Praachi and Igoe, Morganne and Lacy, Alexanderia and Farthing, Trevor and Timsina, Archana and Lanzas, Cristina and Lenhart, Suzanne and Odoi, Agricola and Lloyd, Alun L.}, year={2024}, month={May} }
 @article{holcomb_mathis_staples_fischer_barker_beard_nett_keyel_marcantonio_childs_et al._2023, title={Evaluation of an open forecasting challenge to assess skill of West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease prediction}, volume={16}, ISSN={["1756-3305"]}, DOI={10.1186/s13071-022-05630-y}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={1}, journal={PARASITES & VECTORS}, author={Holcomb, Karen M. M. and Mathis, Sarabeth and Staples, J. Erin and Fischer, Marc and Barker, Christopher M. M. and Beard, Charles B. B. and Nett, Randall J. J. and Keyel, Alexander C. C. and Marcantonio, Matteo and Childs, Marissa L. L. and et al.}, year={2023}, month={Jan} }
 @article{lacy_igoe_das_farthing_lloyd_lanzas_odoi_lenhart_2023, title={Modeling impact of vaccination on COVID-19 dynamics in St. Louis}, volume={17}, ISSN={["1751-3766"]}, DOI={10.1080/17513758.2023.2287084}, abstractNote={The region of St. Louis, Missouri, has displayed a high level of heterogeneity in COVID-19 cases, hospitalization, and vaccination coverage. We investigate how human mobility, vaccination, and time-varying transmission rates influenced SARS-CoV-2 transmission in five counties in the St. Louis area. A COVID-19 model with a system of ordinary differential equations was developed to illustrate the dynamics with a fully vaccinated class. Using the weekly number of vaccinations, cases, and hospitalization data from five counties in the greater St. Louis area in 2021, parameter estimation for the model was completed. The transmission coefficients for each county changed four times in that year to fit the model and the changing behaviour. We predicted the changes in disease spread under scenarios with increased vaccination coverage. SafeGraph local movement data were used to connect the forces of infection across various counties.}, number={1}, journal={JOURNAL OF BIOLOGICAL DYNAMICS}, author={Lacy, Alexanderia and Igoe, Morganne and Das, Praachi and Farthing, Trevor and Lloyd, Alun L. and Lanzas, Cristina and Odoi, Agricola and Lenhart, Suzanne}, year={2023}, month={Dec} }
 @article{das_igoe_lenhart_luong_lanzas_lloyd_odoi_2022, title={Geographic disparities and determinants of COVID-19 incidence risk in the greater St. Louis Area, Missouri (United States)}, volume={17}, ISSN={["1932-6203"]}, DOI={10.1371/journal.pone.0274899}, abstractNote={BackgroundEvidence seems to suggest that the risk of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) might vary across communities due to differences in population characteristics and movement patterns. However, little is known about these differences in the greater St Louis Area of Missouri and yet this information is useful for targeting control efforts. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to investigate (a) geographic disparities of COVID-19 risk and (b) associations between COVID-19 risk and socioeconomic, demographic, movement and chronic disease factors in the Greater St. Louis Area of Missouri, USA.}, number={9}, journal={PLOS ONE}, author={Das, Praachi and Igoe, Morganne and Lenhart, Suzanne and Luong, Lan and Lanzas, Cristina and Lloyd, Alun L. and Odoi, Agricola}, year={2022}, month={Sep} }
 @article{igoe_das_lenhart_lloyd_luong_tian_lanzas_odoi_2022, title={Geographic disparities and predictors of COVID-19 hospitalization risks in the St. Louis Area, Missouri (USA)}, volume={22}, ISSN={["1471-2458"]}, DOI={10.1186/s12889-022-12716-w}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={1}, journal={BMC PUBLIC HEALTH}, author={Igoe, Morganne and Das, Praachi and Lenhart, Suzanne and Lloyd, Alun L. and Luong, Lan and Tian, Dajun and Lanzas, Cristina and Odoi, Agricola}, year={2022}, month={Feb} }