@article{paerl_hall_hounshell_rossignol_barnard_luettich_rudolph_osburn_bales_harding_2020, title={Recent increases of rainfall and flooding from tropical cyclones (TCs) in North Carolina (USA): implications for organic matter and nutrient cycling in coastal watersheds}, volume={150}, ISSN={["1573-515X"]}, DOI={10.1007/s10533-020-00693-4}, abstractNote={Coastal North Carolina experienced 36 tropical cyclones (TCs), including three floods of historical significance in the past two decades (Hurricanes Floyd-1999, Matthew-2016 and Florence-2018). These events caused catastrophic flooding and major alterations of water quality, fisheries habitat and ecological conditions of the Albemarle-Pamlico Sound (APS), the second largest estuarine complex in the United States. Continuous rainfall records for coastal NC since 1898 reveal a period of unprecedented high precipitation storm events since the late-1990s. Six of seven of the “wettest” storm events in this > 120-year record occurred in the past two decades, identifying a period of elevated precipitation and flooding associated with recent TCs. We examined storm-related freshwater discharge, carbon (C) and nutrient, i.e., nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) loadings, and evaluated contributions to total annual inputs in the Neuse River Estuary (NRE), a major sub-estuary of the APS. These contributions were highly significant, accounting for > 50% of annual loads depending on antecedent conditions and storm-related flooding. Depending on the magnitude of freshwater discharge, the NRE either acted as a “processor” to partially assimilate and metabolize the loads or acted as a “pipeline” to transport the loads to the APS and coastal Atlantic Ocean. Under base-flow, terrestrial sources dominate riverine carbon. During storm events these carbon sources are enhanced through the inundation and release of carbon from wetlands. These findings show that event-scale discharge plays an important and, at times, predominant role in C, N and P loadings. We appear to have entered a new climatic regime characterized by more frequent extreme precipitation events, with major ramifications for hydrology, cycling of C, N and P, water quality and habitat conditions in estuarine and coastal waters.}, number={2}, journal={BIOGEOCHEMISTRY}, author={Paerl, Hans W. and Hall, Nathan S. and Hounshell, Alexandria G. and Rossignol, Karen L. and Barnard, Malcolm A. and Luettich, Richard A., Jr. and Rudolph, Jacob C. and Osburn, Christopher L. and Bales, Jerad and Harding, Lawrence W., Jr.}, year={2020}, month={Sep}, pages={197–216} }
 @article{gharagozlou_dietrich_karanci_luettich_overton_2020, title={Storm-driven erosion and inundation of barrier islands from dune-to region-scales}, volume={158}, ISSN={["1872-7379"]}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2020.103674}, DOI={10.1016/j.coastaleng.2020.103674}, abstractNote={Barrier islands are susceptible to erosion, overwash, and breaching during intense storms. However, these processes are not represented typically in large-domain models for storm surge and coastal inundation. In this study, we explore the requirements for bridging the gap between dune-scale morphodynamic and region-scale flooding models. A high-resolution XBeach model is developed to represent the morphodynamics during Hurricane Isabel (2003) in the North Carolina (NC) Outer Banks. The model domain is extended to more than 30km of Hatteras Island and is thus larger than in previous studies. The predicted dune erosion is in good agreement with post-storm observed topography, and an ‘‘excellent’’ Skill Score of 0.59 is obtained on this large domain. Sensitivity studies show the morphodynamic model accuracy is decreased as the mesh spacing is coarsened in the cross-shore direction, but the results are less sensitive to the alongshore resolution. A new metric to assess model skill, Water Overpassing Area (WOA), is introduced to account for the available flow pathway over the dune crest. Together, these findings allow for upscaled parameterizations of erosion in larger-domain models. The updated topography, obtained from XBeach prediction, is applied in a region-scale flooding model, thus allowing for enhanced flooding predictions in communities along the Outer Banks. It is found that, even using a fixed topography in region-scale model, the flooding predictions are improved significantly when post-storm topography from XBeach is implemented. These findings can be generalized to similar barrier island systems, which are common along the U.S. Gulf and Atlantic coasts.}, journal={COASTAL ENGINEERING}, author={Gharagozlou, Alireza and Dietrich, Joel Casey and Karanci, Ayse and Luettich, Richard A. and Overton, Margery F.}, year={2020}, month={Jun} }
 @article{paerl_hall_hounshell_luettich_rossignol_osburn_bales_2019, title={Recent increase in catastrophic tropical cyclone flooding in coastal North Carolina, USA: Long-term observations suggest a regime shift}, volume={9}, ISSN={["2045-2322"]}, DOI={10.1038/s41598-019-46928-9}, abstractNote={Abstract}, journal={SCIENTIFIC REPORTS}, author={Paerl, Hans W. and Hall, Nathan S. and Hounshell, Alexandria G. and Luettich, Richard A., Jr. and Rossignol, Karen L. and Osburn, Christopher L. and Bales, Jerad}, year={2019}, month={Jul} }
 @article{puckett_theuerkauf_eggleston_guajardo_hardy_gao_luettich_2018, title={Integrating Larval Dispersal, Permitting, and Logistical Factors Within a Validated Habitat Suitability Index for Oyster Restoration}, volume={5}, ISSN={["2296-7745"]}, DOI={10.3389/fmars.2018.00076}, abstractNote={Habitat suitability index (HSI) models are increasingly used to guide ecological restoration. Successful restoration is a byproduct of several factors, including physical and biological processes, as well as permitting and logistical considerations. Rarely are factors from all of these categories included in HSI models, despite their combined relevance to common restoration goals such as population persistence. We developed a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based HSI for restoring persistent high-relief subtidal oyster (Crassostrea virginica) reefs protected from harvest (i.e., sanctuaries) in Pamlico Sound, North Carolina, USA. Expert stakeholder input identified 17 factors to include in the HSI. Factors primarily represented physical (e.g., salinity) and biological (e.g., larval dispersal) processes relevant to oyster restoration, but also included several relevant permitting (e.g., presence of seagrasses) and logistical (e.g., distance to restoration material stockpile sites) considerations. We validated the model with multiple years of oyster density data from existing sanctuaries, and compared HSI output with distributions of oyster reefs from the late 1800’s. Of the 17 factors included in the model, stakeholders identified four factors—salinity, larval export from existing oyster sanctuaries, larval import to existing sanctuaries, and dissolved oxygen—most critical to oyster sanctuary site selection. The HSI model provided a quantitative scale over which a vast water body (~6,000 km2) was narrowed down by 95% to a much smaller suite of optimal (top 1% HSI) and suitable (top 5% HSI) locations for oyster restoration. Optimal and suitable restoration locations were clustered in northeast and southwest Pamlico Sound. Oyster density in existing sanctuaries, normalized for time since reef restoration, was a positive exponential function of HSI, providing validation for the model. Only a small portion (10-20%) of historical reef locations overlapped with current, model-predicted optimal and suitable restoration habitat. We contend that stronger linkages between larval connectivity, landscape ecology, stakeholder engagement and spatial planning within HSI models can provide a more holistic, unified approach to restoration.}, journal={FRONTIERS IN MARINE SCIENCE}, author={Puckett, Brandon J. and Theuerkauf, Seth J. and Eggleston, David B. and Guajardo, Rodney and Hardy, Craig and Gao, Jie and Luettich, Richard A.}, year={2018}, month={Apr} }