@article{raper_ward_rushing_brown_sandlin_norton_hutmacher_snider_fromme_dodds_et al._2023, title={Reevaluation of the degree day base 60°F concept in US cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) production}, volume={10}, ISSN={["1435-0645"]}, DOI={10.1002/agj2.21480}, abstractNote={Cotton (Gossypium hirsutum, L.) management decisions to abet early growth, fruit set, boll maturation, and harvest preparation are often facilitated by prediction of the date when critical developmental stages are reached. In the U.S., Growing Degree Days calculated with a base 60°F (DD60) are commonly used to predict cotton development. Observations suggest development of modern cultivars differs from previously established guidelines. The objectives were to: 1) re‐evaluate DD60s required for an early‐, mid‐ and late‐maturing cultivar to reach key growth stages across the US Cotton Belt; and 2) determine if predictions of growth stages are strengthened by optimizing base temperature or including an upper threshold by growth stage. During 2018 and 2019, 22 field trials were established in 10 states. Plant growth stages were monitored weekly and air temperature was computed from interpolated surface observations weighted by a physical, geographic model. Observed DD60s to reach growth stages varied slightly by cultivar and region (≤85 DD60s and ≤130 DD60s, respectively). Required DD60s to reach growth stages exceeded most published ranges. Optimization of base temperature and inclusion of an upper threshold by growth stage did not substantially decrease errors in predicting date of growth stage occurrence. The DD55 and DD55 with an upper threshold of 86°F calculations resulted in slightly lower errors in predicting date of growth stage occurrence than the DD60 calculation. Although guidelines should be updated, it is unlikely slight modification in base temperature or upper thresholds will drastically increase the predictive ability over the DD60 calculation.This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved}, journal={AGRONOMY JOURNAL}, author={Raper, Tyson B. and Ward, Rebecca and Rushing, Cheyenne and Brown, Steve and Sandlin, Tyler and Norton, Randy and Hutmacher, Bob and Snider, John L. and Fromme, Dan and Dodds, Darrin and et al.}, year={2023}, month={Oct} }
 @article{ward_jones_nieuwsma_bordewieck_ideus_2023, title={Scientists' choice of visual displays in climate change outreach: an exploratory study}, volume={9}, ISSN={["2154-8463"]}, DOI={10.1080/21548455.2023.2261156}, abstractNote={ABSTRACTVisual displays are important components of scientists’ public outreach about climate change, yet little is known about how and why scientists choose visual displays. This descriptive, exploratory study sought insight to understand the factors that drive scientists’ decisions about their choice of visual displays for public outreach and education. Interviews were conducted with eleven scientists who have given talks on climate change. During the interviews, the scientists were prompted, from a predefined list of 25 visual displays, to choose the five they would be most likely to use in a climate change talk and to explain their choices. Findings revealed that while scientists’ visual display choices differed, they had similar reasons that converged on bringing climate change psychologically closer to their audiences. Over half of the visual displays selected depicted geographically proximal information, and over half of participants selected a visual display because it communicated climate change certainty. Participants’ descriptions of how they would use selected visual displays included references to direct impacts their audiences already had or would experience. This study provides insights into the current context of climate change outreach among practicing scientists and their perceptions about the role that visual displays play in this public educational process.KEYWORDS: Climate changevisualspublic outreach AcknowledgmentsWe would like to acknowledge the participants of this study and the creators of the visual displays used in this study, without whom this research would not be possible.Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Ethics statementThis study was approved by North Carolina State University’s Institutional Review Board (eIRB #24693).}, journal={INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SCIENCE EDUCATION PART B-COMMUNICATION AND PUBLIC ENGAGEMENT}, author={Ward, Rebecca V. and Jones, M. Gail and Nieuwsma, Julianna and Bordewieck, Kathleen and Ideus, Kimberly L.}, year={2023}, month={Sep} }
 @article{lackstrom_farris_ward_2022, title={Backyard Hydroclimatology: Citizen Scientists Contribute to Drought Detection and Monitoring}, volume={103}, ISSN={["1520-0477"]}, DOI={10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0157.1}, abstractNote={
The Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow (CoCoRaHS) network is a well-regarded, trusted source of precipitation data. The network’s volunteers also provide weather and climate observations through daily comments, significant weather reports, and condition monitoring reports. Designed to meet a need for local information about drought events and their impacts, “condition monitoring” was initiated as a pilot project in North Carolina and South Carolina in 2013 and launched nationally in October 2016. Volunteers regularly report on how precipitation, or a lack thereof, affects their local environment and community by ranking current conditions on a 7-point scale ranging from severely dry to severely wet and sharing observations through written narratives. This study assesses the usefulness of these reports for drought monitoring and decision making, drawing from the >7,100 reports submitted in the Carolinas between October 2016 and June 2020. This period encompasses the Carolinas’ climate patterns and extreme events such as droughts, wildfires, and hurricanes (“drought-busters”). Three aspects of usefulness were evaluated in the reports: the extent to which volunteers’ assessments of dry-to-wet conditions correspond to objective drought indicators (EDDI, SPI, SPEI) typically employed for monitoring drought; how volunteers’ qualitative observations depict changing conditions, focusing on two flash droughts in 2019; and actual use of the reports by National Weather Service offices, State Climate Offices, U.S. Drought Monitor authors, and drought response committees. Although report content can vary widely, findings show that volunteers’ assessments reflect meteorological conditions and provide on-the-ground details that are being incorporated into existing drought monitoring processes.}, number={10}, journal={BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY}, author={Lackstrom, Kirsten and Farris, Amanda and Ward, Rebecca}, year={2022}, month={Oct}, pages={E2222–E2245} }
 @article{ward_lackstrom_davis_2022, title={Demystifying Drought Strategies to Enhance the Communication of a Complex Hazard}, volume={103}, ISSN={["1520-0477"]}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-21-0089.1}, DOI={10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0089.1}, abstractNote={Drought is a complex phenomenon that is difficult to characterize and monitor. Accurate and timely communication is necessary to ensure that affected sectors and the public can respond and manage associated risks and impacts. To that end, myriad drought indicators, indices, and other tools have been developed and made available, but understanding and using this information can challenge end users who are unfamiliar with the information or presentation, or for decision makers with expertise in areas outside of climate and drought. This article highlights a project that aimed to improve the usability and dissemination of drought information for North Carolina (NC) audiences by addressing specific needs for a better understanding of how drought is monitored, the climatic and environmental conditions that can cause or worsen drought, and the impacts occurring in NC’s different sectors and sub-regions. Conducted to support NC’s official, statewide drought monitoring process, the project’s methods and results have utility for other geographies and contexts. The project team designed an iterative process to engage users in the development, evaluation, refinement, and distribution of new resources. Featured products include the Weekly Drought Update infographic, which explains the factors used to determine NC’s drought status, and the Short-Range Outlook infographic, a synthesis of National Weather Service forecasts. Effective strategies included using stakeholders’ preferred and existing channels to disseminate products, emphasizing impacts relevant to different user groups (such as agriculture, forestry, water resources) rather than indices, and employing concise narratives and visualizations to translate technical and scientific information.}, number={1}, journal={BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY}, publisher={American Meteorological Society}, author={Ward, Rebecca and Lackstrom, Kirsten and Davis, Corey}, year={2022}, month={Jan}, pages={E181–E197} }
 @article{chappell_ward_depolt_roberts_greene_kennedy_2020, title={Cotton thrips infestation predictor: a practical tool for predicting tobacco thrips (Frankliniella fusca) infestation of cotton seedlings in the south-eastern United States}, volume={76}, ISSN={1526-498X 1526-4998}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ps.5954}, DOI={10.1002/ps.5954}, abstractNote={BACKGROUND
Thrips (order Thysanoptera) infestations of cotton seedlings result in plant injury, increasing the detrimental consequences of other challenges to production agriculture, such as abiotic stress or infestation by other pests. Using Frankliniella fusca as a thrips species of focus, we empirically developed a composite model of thrips phenology and cotton seedling susceptibility to predict site-specific infestation risk so that monitoring and other resources can be allocated efficiently, to optimize the timing of thrips control measures to maximize effectiveness, and to inform stakeholders about the dynamics of thrips infestation and cotton seedling injury at a time when thrips are evolving resistance to commonly-used pesticides.


RESULTS
A mixture distribution model of thrips infestation potential, fit to data describing F. fusca adult dispersal in time, proved best for predicting infestations of F. fusca on cotton seedlings. Thrips generations occurring each year as a function of weather are represented as a probability distribution. A model of cotton seedling growth was also developed to predict susceptibility as a function of weather. Combining these two models resulted in a model of seedling injury, which was validated and developed for implementation as a software tool.


CONCLUSIONS
Experimental validation of the implemented model demonstrated the utility of its output in predicting infestation risk. Successful implementation and use of the software tool derived from this model was enabled by close cooperation with university extension personnel, agricultural consultants, and growers, underscoring the importance of stakeholder and expert input to the success of applied analytical research. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.}, number={12}, journal={Pest Management Science}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Chappell, Thomas M and Ward, Rebecca V and DePolt, Kelley T and Roberts, Phillip M and Greene, Jeremy K and Kennedy, George G}, year={2020}, month={Jul}, pages={4018–4028} }
 @article{lackstrom_farris_eckhardt_doesken_reges_turner_smith_ward_2017, title={CoCoRaHS Observers Contribute to "Condition Monitoring" in the Carolinas A New Initiative Addresses Needs for Drought Impacts Information}, volume={98}, ISSN={["1520-0477"]}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-16-0306.1}, DOI={10.1175/bams-d-16-0306.1}, abstractNote={AbstractThis article introduces two new tools developed to enhance drought impacts monitoring by citizen scientists. In collaboration with the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC), and the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow (CoCoRaHS) network, the Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments (CISA) developed an experimental method of drought monitoring and reporting by citizen scientists. Since 2013, CISA has recruited CoCoRaHS observers in the Carolinas to participate in “condition monitoring,” the regular reporting of local conditions. In contrast to intermittent drought impact reports, condition monitoring creates a baseline for comparison of change through time and improves understanding of the onset, intensification, and recovery of drought.A project evaluation demonstrated the usefulness of the qualitative reports, while also identifying a need for improved accessibility to the information and a quantitative metric to more qu...}, number={12}, journal={BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY}, publisher={American Meteorological Society}, author={Lackstrom, Kirsten and Farris, Amanda and Eckhardt, David and Doesken, Nolan and Reges, Henry and Turner, Julian and Smith, Kelllly Helm and Ward, Rebecca}, year={2017}, month={Dec}, pages={2527–2531} }
 @article{cumbie-ward_boyles_2016, title={Evaluation of a High-Resolution SPI for Monitoring Local Drought Severity}, volume={55}, ISSN={["1558-8432"]}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-16-0106.1}, DOI={10.1175/jamc-d-16-0106.1}, abstractNote={AbstractA standardized precipitation index (SPI) that uses high-resolution, daily estimates of precipitation from the National Weather Service over the contiguous United States has been developed and is referred to as HRD SPI. There are two different historical distributions computed in the HRD SPI dataset, each with a different combination of normals period (1971–2000 or 1981–2010) and clustering solution of gauge stations. For each historical distribution, the SPI is computed using the NCEP Stage IV and Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) gridded precipitation datasets for a total of four different HRD SPI products. HRD SPIs are found to correlate strongly with independently produced SPIs over the 10-yr period from 2005 to 2015. The drought-monitoring utility of the HRD SPIs is assessed with case studies of drought in the central and southern United States during 2012 and over the Carolinas during 2007–08. A monthly comparison between HRD SPIs and independently produced SPIs reveals generally ...}, number={10}, journal={JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY}, publisher={American Meteorological Society}, author={Cumbie-Ward, Rebecca V. and Boyles, Ryan P.}, year={2016}, month={Oct}, pages={2247–2262} }