@article{montgomery_petras_takeuchi_katsar_2022, title={Contaminated consignment simulation to support risk-based inspection design}, volume={5}, ISSN={["1539-6924"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13943}, DOI={10.1111/risa.13943}, abstractNote={Invasive nonnative plant pests can cause extensive environmental and economic damage and are very difficult to eradicate once established. Phytosanitary inspections that aim to prevent biological invasions by limiting movement of nonnative plant pests across borders are a critical component of the biosecurity continuum. Inspections can also provide valuable information about when and where plant pests are crossing national boundaries. However, only a limited portion of the massive volume of goods imported daily can be inspected, necessitating a highly targeted, risk-based strategy. Furthermore, since inspections must prioritize detection and efficiency, their outcomes generally cannot be used to make inferences about risk for cargo pathways as a whole. Phytosanitary agencies need better tools for quantifying pests going undetected and designing risk-based inspection strategies appropriate for changing operational conditions. In this research, we present PoPS (Pest or Pathogen Spread) Border, an open-source consignment inspection simulator for measuring inspection outcomes under various cargo contamination scenarios to support recommendations for inspection protocols and estimate pest slippage rates. We used the tool to estimate contamination rates of historical interception data, quantify tradeoffs in effectiveness and workload for inspection strategies, and identify vulnerabilities in sampling protocols as changes in cargo configurations and contamination occur. These use cases demonstrate how this simulation approach permits testing inspection strategies and measuring quantities that would otherwise be impossible in a field-based setting. This work represents the first steps toward a decision support tool for creating dynamic inspection protocols that respond to changes in available resources, workload, and commerce trends.}, journal={RISK ANALYSIS}, author={Montgomery, Kellyn and Petras, Vaclav and Takeuchi, Yu and Katsar, Catherine S.}, year={2022}, month={May} }
 @article{kim_hantula_kaitera_zambino_woodward_richardson_stewart_spaine_shaw_takeuchi_et al._2022, title={Recovery Plan for Scots Pine Blister Rust Caused by Cronartium pini}, volume={23}, ISSN={["1535-1025"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.1094/PHP-06-21-0099-RP}, DOI={10.1094/PHP-06-21-0099-RP}, abstractNote={Scots pine blister rust caused by Cronartium pini, which includes the fungal rust pathogen with either a heteroecious life cycle (previously known as Cronartium flaccidum) or an autoecious life cycle (formerly known as Peridermium pini or Endocronartium pini), is capable of infecting many Eurasian pines including Pinus sylvestris (Scots pine). The heteroecious form of C. pini completes its life cycle alternating between pines and various species of flowering plants (Angiospermae); the related autoecious form spreads directly from pine to pine. If the Scots pine blister rust pathogen possesses or gains the capacity to infect North American pines, the economic and ecological impacts could be significant. Scots pine is one of the most widely distributed conifers in the world, and it has become naturalized in the northeastern and midwestern United States. Scots pine blister rust is also called resin-top disease and top-dieback of pine. Symptoms in pine include stem swelling, branch flagging, excessive pitch flow, and top-kill, and, in the alternate hosts, leaf spotting. The rust pathogen is spread in nature by wind-borne spores, which require live hosts for infection. However, the rust pathogen can also be transported on infected plant materials that can be nonsymptomatic. Early infections of host plant infections by C. pini are difficult to detect and diagnose, but molecular techniques offer a potential approach for early detection and diagnosis. This recovery plan is intended to provide a brief summary of the disease, assess the status of critical recovery components, and identify disease management research, extension, and education needs.}, number={1}, journal={PLANT HEALTH PROGRESS}, publisher={Scientific Societies}, author={Kim, Mee-Sook and Hantula, Jarkko and Kaitera, Juha and Zambino, Paul J. and Woodward, Stephen and Richardson, Bryce A. and Stewart, Jane E. and Spaine, Pauline and Shaw, David C. and Takeuchi, Yu and et al.}, year={2022}, pages={105–130} }
 @article{jones_skrip_seliger_jones_wakie_takeuchi_petras_petrasova_meentemeyer_2022, title={Spotted lanternfly predicted to establish in California by 2033 without preventative management}, volume={5}, ISSN={["2399-3642"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.1038/s42003-022-03447-0}, DOI={10.1038/s42003-022-03447-0}, abstractNote={Models that are both spatially and temporally dynamic are needed to forecast where and when non-native pests and pathogens are likely to spread, to provide advance information for natural resource managers. The potential US range of the invasive spotted lanternfly (SLF, Lycorma delicatula) has been modeled, but until now, when it could reach the West Coast's multi-billion-dollar fruit industry has been unknown. We used process-based modeling to forecast the spread of SLF assuming no treatments to control populations occur. We found that SLF has a low probability of first reaching the grape-producing counties of California by 2027 and a high probability by 2033. Our study demonstrates the importance of spatio-temporal modeling for predicting the spread of invasive species to serve as an early alert for growers and other decision makers to prepare for impending risks of SLF invasion. It also provides a baseline for comparing future control options.}, number={1}, journal={COMMUNICATIONS BIOLOGY}, author={Jones, Chris and Skrip, Megan M. and Seliger, Benjamin J. and Jones, Shannon and Wakie, Tewodros and Takeuchi, Yu and Petras, Vaclav and Petrasova, Anna and Meentemeyer, Ross K.}, year={2022}, month={Jun} }
 @misc{xia_ouyang_takeuchi_2021, title={A Brief Review of Resseliella citrifrugis (Diptera: Cecidomyiidae), a Lesser-Known Destructive Citrus Fruit Pest}, volume={12}, ISSN={["2155-7470"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.1093/jipm/pmab033}, DOI={10.1093/jipm/pmab033}, abstractNote={Abstract The gall midge, Resselielia citrifrugis Jiang (Diptera: Cecidomyiidae), is a major citrus pest in China. The pest occurs widely in regions with tropical, subtropical, and temperate climates. Larvae feed inside the fruit, leading to premature fruit drop or damaged fruits. An infested fruit can have hundreds of larvae in it. The extent of losses varies, usually between 10 and 100%, depending on the grove management level. Resselielia citrifrugis hosts include common citrus varieties. China has no area-wide management program against the pest. Field pest management measures include grove sanitation, fruit bagging, and pesticide applications. This review identifies three scientific and technological gaps that need to be filled to protect the U.S. citrus industry from this pest. First, the taxonomical and systematic status of R. citrifrugis needs to be clarified and validated before the pest can be effectively regulated. Second, traps and/or lures for early detection of the pest need to be developed before the pest arrival. Third, pest risk mitigation measures against the pest need to be evaluated and strengthened.}, number={1}, journal={JOURNAL OF INTEGRATED PEST MANAGEMENT}, publisher={Oxford University Press (OUP)}, author={Xia, Yulu and Ouyang, Ge-Cheng and Takeuchi, Yu}, editor={Tindall, KellyEditor}, year={2021}, month={Jan} }
 @article{jones_jones_petrasova_petras_gaydos_skrip_takeuchi_bigsby_meentemeyer_2021, title={Iteratively forecasting biological invasions with PoPS and a little help from our friends}, volume={6}, ISSN={["1540-9309"]}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/fee.2357}, DOI={10.1002/fee.2357}, abstractNote={Ecological forecasting has vast potential to support environmental decision making with repeated, testable predictions across management-relevant timescales and locations. Yet resource managers rarely use co-designed forecasting systems or embed them in decision making. Although prediction of planned management outcomes is particularly important for biological invasions to optimize when and where resources should be allocated, spatial–temporal models of spread typically have not been openly shared, iteratively updated, or interactive to facilitate exploration of management actions. We describe a species-agnostic, open-source framework – called the Pest or Pathogen Spread (PoPS) Forecasting Platform – for co-designing near-term iterative forecasts of biological invasions. Two case studies are presented to demonstrate that iterative calibration yields higher forecast skill than using only the earliest-available data to predict future spread. The PoPS framework is a primary example of an ecological forecasting system that has been both scientifically improved and optimized for real-world decision making through sustained participation and use by management stakeholders.}, number={7}, journal={FRONTIERS IN ECOLOGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Jones, Chris M. and Jones, Shannon and Petrasova, Anna and Petras, Vaclav and Gaydos, Devon and Skrip, Megan M. and Takeuchi, Yu and Bigsby, Kevin and Meentemeyer, Ross K.}, year={2021}, month={Jun} }
 @article{takeuchi_koch_nelson_2021, title={Recent Immigrant Insect Fauna-Another Look at a Classic Analysis}, volume={12}, ISSN={["2155-7470"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.1093/jipm/pmab034}, DOI={10.1093/jipm/pmab034}, abstractNote={Abstract In 1978, Reece Sailer published a seminal retrospective entitled ‘Our Immigrant Insect Fauna.’ His goals were to better understand the origins and historical patterns of alien insect species introductions into the United States and establish a baseline for future work to improve our ability to respond to environmental and agricultural well-being threats. We updated Sailer’s study to include information on species introduced recently into the United States and that are now targeted by regulatory agencies. The recent trends (recorded through 2016) are different from those reported by Sailer. Asian-origin species are much more important than in 1978 and predominate today. Nevertheless, introductions from all parts of the world have continued. Although the diversity of alien species’ origins has increased through time, there has not been a corresponding change in the rate of introductions of species of phytosanitary importance. This finding is inconsistent with our original assumption of a positive nonlinear relationship with international trade imports. Our findings will assist in identifying and prioritizing potential high-risk plant pests as well as enhancing biosecurity capacities.}, number={1}, journal={JOURNAL OF INTEGRATED PEST MANAGEMENT}, publisher={Oxford University Press (OUP)}, author={Takeuchi, Yu and Koch, Frank H. and Nelson, Stacy A. C.}, editor={Green, JodyEditor}, year={2021}, month={Jan} }
 @article{krishnankutty_bigsby_hastings_takeuchi_wu_lingafelter_nadel_myers_ray_jeffrey_2020, title={Predicting Establishment Potential of an Invasive Wood-Boring Beetle, Trichoferus campestris (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) in the United States}, volume={113}, url={http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-85084134943&partnerID=MN8TOARS}, DOI={10.1093/aesa/saz051}, abstractNote={Abstract Solid wood packaging material (WPM) is widely recognized as a high-risk pathway for transport and potential introduction of wood-boring insects, including longhorned beetles in the family Cerambycidae. These beetles also are occasionally imported in finished wood products, such as furniture and decorative items. A targeted effort to identify wood borers intercepted as larvae in WPM at U.S. ports between 2012 and 2018 revealed that one of the most frequently intercepted species was Trichoferus campestris (Faldermann), a cerambycid native to Asia. Trichoferus campestris is a pest of quarantine concern in the United States, Canada, and Europe. The establishment risk of this beetle in the United States is high because of its frequent introduction through multiple pathways and its potential to inhabit natural and urban forests as well as agricultural systems. In this study, we compiled port interception and detection data to examine risk based on historical introductions and pathways. We tested whether the intended destination of cargo intercepted with T. campestris-infested WPM can be used as a predictor of inland introductions, assuming that individuals of T. campestris are likely to be moved through established trade routes between export–import partners. We also developed maps to predict likely areas of introduction and establishment in the United States based on pathway analysis and climate suitability data. The maps will enable informed prioritization of resources in pest surveillance, and may serve as models for other wood borers identified in the WPM and wood products pathway.}, number={2}, journal={Annals of the Entomological Society of America}, author={Krishnankutty, S.M. and Bigsby, K. and Hastings, J. and Takeuchi, Y. and Wu, Y. and Lingafelter, S.W. and Nadel, H. and Myers, S.W. and Ray, A.M. and Jeffrey, M.}, year={2020}, pages={88–99} }
 @article{magarey_newton_hong_takeuchi_christie_jarnevich_kohl_damus_higgins_millar_et al._2018, title={Comparison of four modeling tools for the prediction of potential distribution for non-indigenous weeds in the United States}, volume={20}, ISSN={["1573-1464"]}, url={http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-85029595135&partnerID=MN8TOARS}, DOI={10.1007/s10530-017-1567-1}, number={3}, journal={BIOLOGICAL INVASIONS}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Magarey, Roger and Newton, Leslie and Hong, Seung Cheon and Takeuchi, Yu and Christie, David and Jarnevich, Catherine S. and Kohl, Lisa and Damus, Martin and Higgins, Steven I. and Millar, Leah and et al.}, year={2018}, month={Mar}, pages={679–694} }
 @article{graham_gottwald_timmer_filho_van den bosch_irey_taylor_magarey_takeuchi_2014, title={Response to "Potential distribution of citrus black spot in the United States based on climatic conditions", Er et al. 2013}, volume={139}, url={http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-84899736286&partnerID=MN8TOARS}, DOI={10.1007/s10658-014-0426-5}, number={2}, journal={European Journal of Plant Pathology}, author={Graham, J.H. and Gottwald, T.R. and Timmer, L.W. and Filho, A.B. and Van Den Bosch, F. and Irey, M.S. and Taylor, E. and Magarey, R.D. and Takeuchi, Y.}, year={2014}, pages={231–234} }
 @article{graham_gottwald_timmer_bergamin_bosch_irey_taylor_magarey_takeuchi_2014, title={Response to "Potential distribution of citrus black spot in the United States based on climatic conditions", Er et al. 2013}, volume={139}, number={2}, journal={European Journal of Plant Pathology}, author={Graham, J. H. and Gottwald, T. R. and Timmer, L. W. and Bergamin, A. and Bosch, F. and Irey, M. S. and Taylor, E. and Magarey, R. D. and Takeuchi, Y.}, year={2014}, pages={231–234} }
 @inbook{fowler_takeuchi_2012, title={Mapping, climate and geographic information for risk analysis}, url={http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-84890230584&partnerID=MN8TOARS}, booktitle={Plant Pest Risk Analysis: Concepts and Application}, author={Fowler, G. and Takeuchi, T.}, year={2012}, pages={151–163} }
 @article{kubiske_zak_pregitzer_takeuchi_2002, title={Photosynthetic acclimation of overstory Populus tremuloides and understory Acer saccharum to elevated atmospheric CO<inf>2</inf> concentration: Interactions with shade and soil nitrogen}, volume={22}, url={http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-0036000103&partnerID=MN8TOARS}, DOI={10.1093/treephys/22.5.321}, abstractNote={We exposed Populus tremuloides Michx. and Acer saccharum Marsh. to a factorial combination of ambient and elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations ([CO2]) and high-nitrogen (N) and low-N soil treatments in open-top chambers for 3 years. Our objective was to compare photosynthetic acclimation to elevated [CO2] between species of contrasting shade tolerance, and to determine if soil N or shading modify the acclimation response. Sun and shade leaf responses to elevated [CO2] and soil N were compared between upper and lower canopy leaves of P. tremuloides and between A. saccharum seedlings grown with and without shading by P. tremuloides. Both species had higher leaf N concentrations and photosynthetic rates in high-N soil than in low-N soil, and these characteristics were higher for P. tremuloides than for A. saccharum. Electron transport capacity (Jmax) and carboxylation capacity (Vcmax) generally decreased with atmospheric CO2 enrichment in all 3 years of the experiment, but there was no evidence that elevated [CO2] altered the relationship between them. On a leaf area basis, both Jmax and Vcmax acclimated to elevated [CO2] more strongly in shade leaves than in sun leaves of P. tremuloides. However, the apparent [CO2] x shade interaction was largely driven by differences in specific leaf area (m2 g-1) between sun and shade leaves. In A. saccharum, photosynthesis acclimated more strongly to elevated [CO2] in sun leaves than in shade leaves on both leaf area and mass bases. We conclude that trees rooted freely in the ground can exhibit photosynthetic acclimation to elevated [CO2], and the response may be modified by light environment. The hypothesis that photosynthesis acclimates more completely to elevated [CO2] in shade-tolerant species than in shade-intolerant species was not supported.}, number={5}, journal={Tree Physiology}, author={Kubiske, M.E. and Zak, D.R. and Pregitzer, K.S. and Takeuchi, Y.}, year={2002}, pages={321–329} }
 @article{takeuchi_kubiske_isebrands_pregtizer_hendrey_karnosky_2001, title={Photosynthesis, light and nitrogen relationships in a young deciduous forest canopy under open-air CO<inf>2</inf> enrichment}, volume={24}, url={http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-0035666015&partnerID=MN8TOARS}, DOI={10.1046/j.0016-8025.2001.00787.x}, abstractNote={Leaf photosynthesis (Ps), nitrogen (N) and light environment were measured on Populus tremuloides trees in a developing canopy under free-air CO2 enrichment in Wisconsin, USA. After 2 years of growth, the trees averaged 1·5 and 1·6 m tall under ambient and elevated CO2, respectively, at the beginning of the study period in 1999. They grew to 2·6 and 2·9 m, respectively, by the end of the 1999 growing season. Daily integrated photon flux from cloud-free days (PPFDday,sat) around the lowermost branches was 16·8 ± 0·8 and 8·7 ± 0·2% of values at the top for the ambient and elevated CO2 canopies, respectively. Elevated CO2 significantly decreased leaf N on a mass, but not on an area, basis. N per unit leaf area was related linearly to PPFDday,sat throughout the canopies, and elevated CO2 did not affect that relationship. Leaf Ps light-response curves responded differently to elevated CO2, depending upon canopy position. Elevated CO2 increased Pssat only in the upper (unshaded) canopy, whereas characteristics that would favour photosynthesis in shade were unaffected by elevated CO2. Consequently, estimated daily integrated Ps on cloud-free days (Psday,sat) was stimulated by elevated CO2 only in the upper canopy. Psday,sat of the lowermost branches was actually lower with elevated CO2 because of the darker light environment. The lack of CO2 stimulation at the mid- and lower canopy was probably related to significant down-regulation of photosynthetic capacity; there was no down-regulation of Ps in the upper canopy. The relationship between Psday,sat and leaf N indicated that N was not optimally allocated within the canopy in a manner that would maximize whole-canopy Ps or photosynthetic N use efficiency. Elevated CO2 had no effect on the optimization of canopy N allocation.}, number={12}, journal={Plant, Cell and Environment}, author={Takeuchi, Y. and Kubiske, M.E. and Isebrands, J.G. and Pregtizer, K.S. and Hendrey, G. and Karnosky, D.F.}, year={2001}, pages={1257–1268} }