TY - JOUR TI - Retirement plans and saving decisions: the role of information and education AU - Clark, Robert L. AU - d'Ambrosio, Madeleine B. AU - McDermed, Ann A. AU - Sawant, Kshama T2 - Journal of Pension Economics and Finance AB - Increasingly, individuals are being required to take more responsibility for their own retirement saving. Lifecycle theories of resource allocation provide a framework to examine work, retirement, consumption, and saving decisions. However, optimal decision making requires adequate knowledge of financial mathematics, risk and return properties of investments, and expectations concerning wage growth and tax policy. This paper explores the response of individuals to financial education seminars. Using data from three surveys of participants in seminars offered by TIAA-CREF, we estimate changes in retirement goals and saving behavior after the respondents have attended a seminar which discusses keep components of saving for retirement. The results indicate that financial education can produce significant changes in how individuals think and plan for retirement. Throughout the analysis, women were found to be more responsive to the seminar and were more likely to raise their desired retirement age, increase their target income replacement goal, and alter their savings behavior. DA - 2006/2/8/ PY - 2006/2/8/ DO - 10.1017/S1474747205002271 VL - 5 IS - 1 SP - 45–67 SN - 1474-7472 1475-3022 UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S1474747205002271 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Can Business Economists Predict Interest Rate or Exchange Rate Movements? AU - Mitchell, Karlyn AU - Pearce, Douglas T2 - Corporate Finance Review DA - 2006/// PY - 2006/// VL - 10 IS - 6 SP - 15–27 ER - TY - JOUR TI - The present-value model of the current account has been rejected: Round up the usual suspects AU - Nason, James M. AU - Rogers, John H. T2 - Journal of International Economics AB - Tests of the present-value model (PVM) of the current account are frequently rejected by data. Standard explanations rely on the “usual suspects” of non-separable preferences, fiscal policy and world real interest rate shocks, external imperfect international capital mobility, and an internalized risk premium. We confirm these rejections on post-war Canadian data, then investigate their source by calibrating and simulating alternative versions of a small open economy, real business cycle model (RBC). Bayesian Monte Carlo experiments reveal that a “canonical” RBC model is close to the data, but far from the PVM predictions. Although each suspect matters in some way, none improve the fit to the data. However, the PVM restrictions are reproduced when the internalized risk premium is introduced into the canonical model. By adding the exogenous world real interest rate shock to this version of the model, it matches the data better and is moved closer to the PVM predictions. This suggests that there is an important common world component to current account fluctuations, which points to additional underlying macroeconomic factors that drive the current account. DA - 2006/1// PY - 2006/1// DO - 10.1016/j.jinteco.2005.01.004 VL - 68 IS - 1 SP - 159-187 J2 - Journal of International Economics LA - en OP - SN - 0022-1996 UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2005.01.004 DB - Crossref KW - current account KW - present value model KW - world real interest rate KW - international capital mobility KW - Bayesian Monte Carlo ER - TY - CONF TI - Planarization for reverse-tone step and flash imprint lithography - art. no. 61512G AU - Lin, M. W. AU - Chao, H. L. AU - Hao, J. J. AU - Kim, E. K. AU - Palmieri, F. AU - Kim, W. C. AU - Dickey, M. AU - Ho, P. S. AU - Willson, C. G. C2 - 2006/// C3 - Proceedings of the society of photo-optical instrumentation engineers DA - 2006/// VL - 6151 SP - G1512-1512 ER - TY - BOOK TI - The new balancing act in the business of higher education CN - LB2342 .N373 2006 DA - 2006/// PY - 2006/// PB - Cheltenham, UK; Northampton, MA: E. Elgar SN - 1845427319 ER - TY - JOUR TI - A new architecture for coastal inundation and flood warning prediction AU - Pietrafesa, L. J. AU - Kelleher, K. AU - Karl, T. AU - Davidson, M. AU - Peng, M. AU - Bao, S. AU - Dickey, D. AU - Xie, L. AU - Liu, H. AU - Xia, M. T2 - MARINE TECHNOLOGY SOCIETY JOURNAL AB - The marine atmosphere, coastal ocean, estuary, harbor and river water systems constitute a physically coupled system. While these systems have always been heavily impacted by coastal storms, increases in population density, infrastructure, and personal and business merchandise have exacerbated the economic and personal impacts of these events over the past half century. As such there has been increased focus on the need for more timely and accurate forecasts of impending events. Traditionally model forecast architectures for coastal storm surge, flooding and inundation of coastal and inland areas have taken the approach of dealing with each system separately: rivers, estuaries, harbors and offshore facing areas. However, given advances in coupled modeling and the availability of real-time data, the ability to accurately predict and project coastal, estuary and inland flooding related to the passage of high energy and wet atmospheric events is rapidly emerging and requires a new paradigm in system architecture. No longer do monthly averaged winds or river discharge or water levels have to be invoked in developing hindcasts for planning purposes or for real-time forecasts. In 1999 a hurricane associated flood on the North Carolina coast took 56 lives and caused more than $6 billion in economic impacts. None of the models existing at that time were able to properly forecast the massive flooding and clearly called for a new model paradigm. Here we propose a model system that couples atmospheric information to fully three dimensional, non-linear time dependent ocean basin, coastal and estuary hydrodynamic models coupled to interactive river models with input of real or modeled winds, observed or modeled precipitation, measured and modeled water levels, and streamflow. The river and estuarine components must both be capable of going into modes of storage or accelerated discharge. Spatial scales must downscale in the horizontal from thousands to tens meters and in the vertical from hundreds to several centimeters. Topography and elevation data should be of the highest resolution available, necessary for highly accurate predictions of the timing and location of the inundation and retreat of flood waters. Precipitation information must be derived from the optimal mix of direct radar, satellite and ground-based observations. Creating the capability described above will advance the modernization of hydrologic services provided by the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration and provide more accurate and timely forecasts and climatologies of coastal and estuary flooding. The goal of these climatologies and improved forecasts is to provide better information to local and regional planners, emergency managers, highway patrols and to improve the capacity of coastal communities to mitigate against the impacts of coastal flooding. DA - 2006/// PY - 2006/// DO - 10.4031/002533206787353205 VL - 40 IS - 4 SP - 71-77 SN - 0025-3324 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Short run and long run causality in time series: inference AU - Dufour, Jean-Marie AU - Pelletier, Denis AU - Renault, Eric T2 - JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS AB - We propose methods for testing hypothesis of non-causality at various horizons, as defined in Dufour and Renault (Econometrica 66, (1998) 1099–1125). We study in detail the case of VAR models and we propose linear methods based on running vector autoregressions at different horizons. While the hypotheses considered are nonlinear, the proposed methods only require linear regression techniques as well as standard Gaussian asymptotic distributional theory. Bootstrap procedures are also considered. For the case of integrated processes, we propose extended regression methods that avoid nonstandard asymptotics. The methods are applied to a VAR model of the US economy. DA - 2006/6// PY - 2006/6// DO - 10.1016/j.jeconom.2005.02.003 VL - 132 IS - 2 SP - 337-362 SN - 1872-6895 KW - granger causality KW - indirect causality KW - vector autoregression KW - bootsrap KW - macroeconomics ER - TY - JOUR TI - Services science to be taught at NC state AU - Allen, S.G. AU - Mugge, P. T2 - Research Technology Management DA - 2006/// PY - 2006/// VL - 49 IS - 6 SP - 6-7 UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-37849186603&partnerID=MN8TOARS ER - TY - JOUR TI - Computer simulation study of molecular recognition in model DNA microarrays AU - Jayaraman, Arthi AU - Hall, Carol K. AU - Genzer, Jan T2 - BIOPHYSICAL JOURNAL AB - DNA microarrays have been widely adopted by the scientific community for a variety of applications. To improve the performance of microarrays there is a need for a fundamental understanding of the interplay between the various factors that affect microarray sensitivity and specificity. We use lattice Monte Carlo simulations to study the thermodynamics and kinetics of hybridization of single-stranded target genes in solution with complementary probe DNA molecules immobilized on a microarray surface. The target molecules in our system contain 48 segments and the probes tethered on a hard surface contain 8–24 segments. The segments on the probe and target are distinct and each segment represents a sequence of nucleotides (∼11 nucleotides). Each probe segment interacts exclusively with its unique complementary target segment with a single hybridization energy; all other interactions are zero. We examine how the probe length, temperature, or hybridization energy, and the stretch along the target that the probe segments complement, affect the extent of hybridization. For systems containing single probe and single target molecules, we observe that as the probe length increases, the probability of binding all probe segments to the target decreases, implying that the specificity decreases. We observe that probes 12–16 segments (∼132–176 nucleotides) long gave the highest specificity and sensitivity. This agrees with the experimental results obtained by another research group, who found an optimal probe length of 150 nucleotides. As the hybridization energy increases, the longer probes are able to bind all their segments to the target, thus improving their specificity. The hybridization kinetics reveals that the segments at the ends of the probe are most likely to start the hybridization. The segments toward the center of the probe remain bound to the target for a longer time than the segments at the ends of the probe. DA - 2006/9// PY - 2006/9// DO - 10.1529/biophysj.106.086173 VL - 91 IS - 6 SP - 2227-2236 SN - 1542-0086 ER - TY - JOUR TI - The mean squared error of the instrumental variables estimator when the disturbance has an elliptical distribution AU - Peixe, FPM AU - Hall, AR AU - Kyriakoulis, K T2 - ECONOMETRIC REVIEWS AB - This paper generalizes Nagar's (1959 Nagar , A. L. ( 1959 ). The bias and moment matrix of the general k-class estimators of the parameters in simultaneous equations . Econometrica 27 : 575 – 595 . [CSA] [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) approximation to the finite sample mean squared error (MSE) of the instrumental variables (IV) estimator to the case in which the errors possess an elliptical distribution whose moments exist up to infinite order. This allows for types of excess kurtosis exhibited by some financial data series. This approximation is compared numerically to Knight's (1985 Knight , J. L. ( 1985 ). The moments of OLS and 2SLS when the disturbances are non-normal . J. Econometrics 27 : 39 – 60 . [CROSSREF] [CSA] [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) formulae for the exact moments of the IV estimator under nonnormality. We use the results to explore two questions on instrument selection. First, we complement Buse's (1992 Buse , A. ( 1992 ). The bias of instrumental variable estimators . Econometrica 60 : 173 – 180 . [CSA] [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) analysis by considering the impact of additional instruments on both bias and MSE. Second, we evaluate the properties of Andrews's (1999 Andrews , D. W. K. ( 1999 ). Consistent moment selection procedures for generalized method of moments estimation . Econometrica 67 : 543 – 564 . [CROSSREF] [CSA] [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) selection method in terms of the bias and MSE of the resulting IV estimator. DA - 2006/// PY - 2006/// DO - 10.1080/07474930500545488 VL - 25 IS - 1 SP - 117-138 SN - 1532-4168 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Taxicab regulation in Japan AU - Flath, D T2 - JOURNAL OF THE JAPANESE AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIES AB - This paper proposes a model of a cruising taxicab industry under laissez faire pricing and free entry, and compares it with alternative regimes including collusive fare setting, collusive restrictions on entry, or both. In the model, under laissez faire, prices are determined by Nash bargaining with complete information and lie above marginal costs. Under laissez faire pricing and free entry the average number of vacant cabs need not be efficient and could be either higher than optimal or less, depending upon the relative bargaining power of individual cabs and potential customers. Under collusive control of entry, the average number of vacant cabs will be set at the efficient level given the prices, which if set collusively will be above the laissez faire prices. These findings shed new light on the political success of cartelizing regulation of the cruising taxicab industry such as that observed in Japan. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (2) (2006) 288–304. DA - 2006/6// PY - 2006/6// DO - 10.1016/j.jjie.2004.12.002 VL - 20 IS - 2 SP - 288-304 SN - 0889-1583 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Estimating the effects of urban residential development on water quality using microdata AU - Atasoy, Mary AU - Palmquist, Raymond B. AU - Phaneuf, Daniel J. T2 - JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT AB - In this study, we examine the impact on water quality of urbanization using disaggregate data from Wake County, North Carolina. We use a unique panel data set tracing the conversion of individual residentially zoned land parcels to relate the density of residential development and the change in residential land use to three measures of water quality. Using a spatial econometrics model, we relate spatially and temporally referenced monitoring station readings to our measures of residential land use while controlling for other factors affecting water quality. We find that both the density of residential land use and the rate of land conversion have a negative impact on water quality. The impacts of these non-point sources are found to be larger in magnitude than those from urban point sources. DA - 2006/6// PY - 2006/6// DO - 10.1016/j.jenvman.2005.07.012 VL - 79 IS - 4 SP - 399-408 SN - 1095-8630 KW - residential development KW - urban land use KW - water quality ER - TY - JOUR TI - Digital phoenix: Why the information economy collapsed and how it will rise again AU - Margolis, S. E. T2 - Independent Review DA - 2006/// PY - 2006/// VL - 11 IS - 1 SP - 147-151 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Comprehensive trend analysis of nutrients and related variables in a large eutrophic estuary: A decadal study of anthropogenic and climatic influences AU - Burkholder, JoAnn M. AU - Dickey, David A. AU - Kinder, Carol A. AU - Reed, Robert E. AU - Mallin, Michael A. AU - McIver, Matthew R. AU - Cahoon, Lawrence B. AU - Melia, Greg AU - Brownie, Cavell AU - Smith, Joy AU - Deamer, Nora AU - Springer, Jeffrey AU - Glasgow, Howard B. AU - Toms, David T2 - LIMNOLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY AB - We used a decadal data set, with weekly to biweekly sampling in April—October and monthly sampling in November—March, to characterize climatic (hurricane‐level storms, a sustained 3‐yr drought) and anthropogenic influences on N and P concentrations and loadings to a large eutrophic, poorly flushed estuary, the Neuse Estuary of the Albemarle—Pamlico Estuarine System. Mass volume transport data were obtained with cross‐estuary transect flow measurements taken near the entrance to the estuary. Although trends were minimally influenced by hurricanes, analyses were significantly affected by the sustained drought near the end of the study. As examples, decreasing trends in total N (TN), total P (TP), and bottom‐water dissolved oxygen concentrations, and in TN loadings were significant considering all data, but these trends were not significant when the sustained drought was excluded from analysis. In addition, the trend in TN loading was especially sensitive to the initial sampling period. NH 4 + concentrations dramatically increased (overall by ~500%) as a persistent trend regardless of attempts to control for climatic events. An increasing trend in NH 4 + also was documented in an adjacent, rapidly flushed Coastal Plain estuary, the Cape Fear. The NH 4 + data suggest a regional‐scale effect of high inputs from inadequately controlled, increasing nonpoint sources. The fragility of TN loading trends, the striking increase in NH 4 + concentrations, and the lack of management emphasis on controlling nonpoint sources such as “new” industrialized swine production collectively do not support recent reports of achievement of a 30% reduction in TN loading to the Neuse. Nonpoint sources remain a critical target for reduction to alleviate the negative effects of cultural eutrophication in this system, as in many estuaries throughout the world. DA - 2006/1// PY - 2006/1// DO - 10.4319/lo.2006.51.1_part_2.0463 VL - 51 IS - 1 SP - 463-487 SN - 1939-5590 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Testing the permanent-income hypothesis: new evidence from West-German states (Lander) AU - DeJuan, Joseph P. AU - Seater, John J. AU - Wirjanto, Tony S. T2 - EMPIRICAL ECONOMICS DA - 2006/9// PY - 2006/9// DO - 10.1007/s00181-005-0035-4 VL - 31 IS - 3 SP - 613-629 SN - 0377-7332 KW - consumption KW - permanent income KW - West Germany ER - TY - JOUR TI - Spatio-temporal analysis of wildfire ignitions in the St Johns River Water Management District, Florida AU - Genton, MG AU - Butry, DT AU - Gumpertz, ML AU - Prestemon, JP T2 - INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WILDLAND FIRE AB - We analyse the spatio-temporal structure of wildfire ignitions in the St Johns River Water Management District in north-eastern Florida. We show, using tools to analyse point patterns (e.g. the L-function), that wildfire events occur in clusters. Clustering of these events correlates with irregular distribution of fire ignitions, including lightning and human sources, and fuels on the landscape. In addition, we define a relative clustering index that summarizes the amount of clustering over various spatial scales. We carry our analysis in three steps: purely temporal, purely spatial, and spatio-temporal. Our results show that arson and lightning are the leading causes of wildfires in this region and that ignitions by railroad, lightning, and arson are spatially more clustered than ignitions by other accidental causes. DA - 2006/// PY - 2006/// DO - 10.1071/WF04034 VL - 15 IS - 1 SP - 87-97 SN - 1448-5516 KW - clustering KW - confidence envelope KW - fire occurrence KW - L-function KW - point process ER - TY - BOOK TI - Economics (4th ed.) AU - Wessels, W. J. DA - 2006/// PY - 2006/// PB - Hauppage, NY: Barron's SN - 0764134191 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Regime switching for dynamic correlations AU - Pelletier, D T2 - JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS AB - We propose a new model for the variance between multiple time series, the regime switching dynamic correlation. We decompose the covariances into correlations and standard deviations and the correlation matrix follows a regime switching model; it is constant within a regime but different across regimes. The transitions between the regimes are governed by a Markov chain. This model does not suffer from a curse of dimensionality and it allows analytic computation of multi-step ahead conditional expectations of the variance matrix when combined with the ARMACH model (Taylor (Modelling Financial Time Series. Wiley, New York) and Schwert (J. Finance 44(5) (1989) 1115)) for the standard deviations. We also present an empirical application which illustrates that our model can have a better fit of the data than the dynamic conditional correlation model proposed by Engle (J. Business Econ. Statist. 20(3) (2002) 339). DA - 2006/// PY - 2006/// DO - 10.1016/j.jeconom.2005.01.013 VL - 131 IS - 1-2 SP - 445-473 SN - 1872-6895 KW - dynamic correlations KW - regime switching KW - Markov chain KW - ARMACH ER - TY - JOUR TI - An automated statistical process control study of inline mixing using spectrophotometric detection AU - Dickey, M. D. AU - Stewart, M. D. AU - Willson, C. G. AU - Dickey, D. A. T2 - Journal of Chemical Education AB - Statistical process control (SPC) charts are used to distinguish natural, random variations in a process parameter from fluctuations associated with an assignable cause, such as equipment malfunction or operator error. SPC charts are widely used in industry for quality and process control. In fact, feedback from recent graduates of the undergraduate chemical engineering program indicates that familiarity with SPC charts is one of the most valuable skills for newly hired process engineers. In the following experiment, students are introduced to the concept of SPC through a simple inline mixing experiment. Students learn to create SPC control charts and, more importantly, to understand their function. DA - 2006/// PY - 2006/// DO - 10.1021/ed083p110 VL - 83 IS - 1 SP - 110-113 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Pension plan choice among University faculty AU - Clark, RL AU - Ghent, LS AU - McDermed, AA T2 - SOUTHERN ECONOMIC JOURNAL AB - A pension plan is an important component of lifetime earnings, and thus the decision between a defined benefit pension and a defined contribution pension is an important one. This study uses data from annual faculty censuses of the University of North Carolina system, where new hires are given a choice between a state defined benefit pension and a defined contribution plan. Newly hired faculty members who are older, female, and nonwhite are found to be more likely to choose the defined benefit plan. Some differences across university Carnegie classification are also seen. In addition, a declining trend in defined benefit participation is shown. DA - 2006/1// PY - 2006/1// DO - 10.2307/20111833 VL - 72 IS - 3 SP - 560-577 SN - 2325-8012 ER - TY - JOUR TI - A simple test of Friedman's Permanent Income Hypothesis AU - DeJuan, JP AU - Seater, JJ T2 - ECONOMICA AB - Friedman's Permanent Income Hypothesis (PIH) predicts that the income elasticity of consumption should be higher for households for which a large fraction of the variation of their income is permanent than for households facing more transitory variations in income. We test this prediction using modern household data from the US Consumer Expenditure Survey. The results offer some support for the PIH. DA - 2006/2// PY - 2006/2// DO - 10.1111/j.1468-0335.2006.00446.x VL - 73 IS - 289 SP - 27-46 SN - 0013-0427 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Are outsiders handicapped in CEO successions? AU - Agrawal, A AU - Knoeber, CR AU - Tsoulouhas, T T2 - JOURNAL OF CORPORATE FINANCE AB - We argue that outsiders are handicapped (chosen only if markedly better than the best insider) in Chief Executive Officer (CEO) successions to strengthen the incentive that the contest to become CEO provides inside candidates. Handicapping implies are that a firm will be more likely to choose an insider to succeed to the CEO position where insiders are more comparable to each other, where outsiders are less comparable to insiders, and where there are more inside candidates. We assess these predictions using a data set containing more than 1,000 observations on CEO succession in large U.S. firms over the period 1974–1995 and a novel measure of the comparability of insiders that identifies those firms with a product or line of business organizational structure. Our evidence is consistent with each prediction. We also explore more carefully our organizational structure variable. We find that where firms switch to a product or line of business structure (making insiders more comparable) the likelihood of outsider succession falls. And we consider the possibility that managers from firms with a product or line of business structure may be more likely to be chosen CEO because their experience as divisional head better prepares them for a CEO's duties. Two tests suggest that this is not the source of our finding that these firms are more likely to promote insiders to be CEO. The first test finds that controlling for prior experience managing a business (a division or a firm) among inside candidates to be CEO, those firms organized along product lines remain more likely to promote from within. The second test finds that when outsiders are chosen CEO, these outsiders do not come disproportionately from firms with a product or line of business structure. DA - 2006/6// PY - 2006/6// DO - 10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2004.04.005 VL - 12 IS - 3 SP - 619-644 SN - 0929-1199 KW - outsiders KW - CEO successions KW - handicapping ER - TY - JOUR TI - The relation of stroke admissions to recent weather, airborne allergens, air pollution, seasons, upper respiratory infections, and asthma incidence, September 11, 2001, and day of the week AU - Low, RB AU - Bielory, L AU - Qureshi, AI AU - Dunn, V AU - Stuhlmiller, DFE AU - Dickey, DA T2 - STROKE AB - Some previous research links stroke incidence to weather, some links strokes to air pollution, and some report seasonal effects. Alveolar inflammation was proposed as the mechanistic link. We present a unified model of time, weather, pollution, and upper respiratory infection (URI) incidence.We combined existing databases: US Environmental Protection Agency pollution levels, National Weather Service data, counts of airborne allergens, and New York City Health and Hospitals Corporation counts of stroke, asthma, and URI patients. We used autoregressive integrated moving average modeling (a statistical time series modeling technique) with stroke admissions as the response variable and day of week, holidays, September 11th, and other counts and levels as explanatory variables.Using a broad definition of stroke, there were 5.1+/-2.3 stroke admissions per day: narrowly defined, 4.2+/-2.1 strokes per day. There are relatively fewer strokes on Sundays (0.50 strokes; P=0.0011), Saturdays (0.62; P<0.0001), Fridays (0.38; P=0.0009) and holidays (0.875; P=0.0016). We found relatively small, independent exacerbating effects of higher air temperature (P=0.0211), dry air (P=0.0187), URIs, (P<0.0001), grass pollen (P=0.0341), sulfur dioxide (SO2; P=0.0471), and suspended particles <10 microm in size (P=0.0404). These effects are modest: < or =0.6, 0.6, 2.4, 1, 0.9, and 0.7 strokes per day, respectively. We did not find statistically significant exacerbating effects of other variables.We found statistically significant, independent exacerbating effects of warmer, drier air, URIs, grass pollen, SO2, and particulate air pollution. The model supports the theory that links pulmonary inflammation to stroke. DA - 2006/4// PY - 2006/4// DO - 10.1161/01.STR.0000214681.94680.66 VL - 37 IS - 4 SP - 951-957 SN - 0039-2499 KW - air pollution KW - cerebrovascular accident KW - fungal spores KW - influenza, human KW - pollen KW - respiratory infections KW - weather ER - TY - JOUR TI - Nonlinear dynamics and structural change in the US hog-corn cycle: A time-varying star approach AU - Holt, MT AU - Craig, LA T2 - AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS AB - The linearity of the U.S. hog—corn cycle has been questioned by Chavas and Holt (1991). Even so, attempts have not been made to model the potential nonlinear dynamics in the hog—corn cycle by using regime‐switching models. One popular alternative is Teräsvirta's smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) model, which assumes regime switching is endogenous and potentially smooth. In this article, we examine monthly data for the U.S. hog—corn cycle, 1910–2004. A member of the STAR family, the time‐varying STAR, is fitted to the data and its properties examined. We find evidence of nonlinearity, regime‐dependent behavior, and time‐varying parameter change. DA - 2006/2// PY - 2006/2// DO - 10.1111/j.1467-8276.2006.00849.x VL - 88 IS - 1 SP - 215-233 SN - 1467-8276 KW - hog-corn cycle KW - nonlinearity KW - structural change KW - time-series models ER -