2023 journal article
Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS, 14(1).
TL;DR:
Scenarios remained close to reality for 22 weeks on average before the arrival of unanticipated SARS-CoV-2 variants invalidated key assumptions, and an ensemble of participating models that preserved variation between models was consistently more reliable than any single model in periods of valid scenario assumptions, while projection interval coverage was near target levels.
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open access via www.nature.com (publisher PDF)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being
(OpenAlex)
Source: Web Of Science
Added: February 26, 2024
AbstractOur ability to forecast epidemics far into the future is constrained by the many complexities of disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well-defined scenarios that specify the future state of critical epidemic drivers. Since December 2020, the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) has convened multiple modeling teams to make months ahead projections of SARS-CoV-2 burden, totaling nearly 1.8 million national and state-level projections. Here, we find SMH performance varied widely as a function of both scenario validity and model calibration. We show scenarios remained close to reality for 22 weeks on average before the arrival of unanticipated SARS-CoV-2 variants invalidated key assumptions. An ensemble of participating models that preserved variation between models (using the linear opinion pool method) was consistently more reliable than any single model in periods of valid scenario assumptions, while projection interval coverage was near target levels. SMH projections were used to guide pandemic response, illustrating the value of collaborative hubs for longer-term scenario projections.