2007 journal article
Professional forecasts of interest rates and exchange rates: Evidence from the Wall Street Journal's panel of economists
JOURNAL OF MACROECONOMICS, 29(4), 840–854.
author keywords: forecast evaluation; interest rates; exchange rate
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
8. Decent Work and Economic Growth
(Web of Science)
Source: Web Of Science
Added: August 6, 2018
We analyze economists' forecasts of interest rates and exchange rates from the Wall Street Journal. We find that a majority of economists produced unbiased forecasts but that none predicted directions of changes more accurately than chance. Most economists' forecast accuracy is statistically indistinguishable from a random walk model in forecasting the Treasury bill rate, but many are significantly worse in forecasting the Treasury bond rate and the exchange rate. We also find systematic forecast heterogeneity, support for strategic models predicting the industry employing the economist matters, and evidence that economists deviate less from the consensus as they age.