2024 content posted

Projected Effects of the Russia-Ukraine War on Global Forest Products Markets

By: P. Nepal, A. Lamica n & R. Parajuli n

Source: Crossref
Added: August 25, 2024

This study provided an insight into the projected short-term (<10 years) and long-term (10 to 30 years) effects of the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine on the global forest products markets. The assessment was conducted by comparing the projected outcomes from the Global Forest Products Market (GFPM) model simulations for a reference (no war) scenario and an alternate scenario representing the current trade sanctions for Russian wood products trade by several major partner countries, and the potential trade disruption in Ukraine due to their military operations, during the 2021-2025 period, and no such trade restrictions thereafter assuming the war ends by that time. Results indicate considerable projected short-term disruptions in the Russian, Ukrainian, and the global wood products sector in terms of higher industrial roundwood and finished wood products prices (up to 3%) and altered production, consumption and trade displacement for wood products. However, in the long run, a lower overall disruption is projected as the Russian markets for industrial roundwood and sawnwood start to recover and the global markets begin to converge to pre-war levels. Findings also suggest that Russian markets for wood-based panels and paper and paperboard and Ukrainian markets for paper and paperboard do not recover within the next 30 years, suggesting a potential permanent structural change in markets of these wood product groups. These outcomes suggest several economic and environmental implications for the forest products sector in Russia, Ukraine and the rest of the world in the near- and long-term.