@article{kaplan_charney_waight_lux_cetola_huffman_riordan_slusser_kiefer_suffern_et al._2006, title={Characterizing the severe turbulence environments associated with commercial aviation accidents. A real-time turbulence model (RTTM) designed for the operational prediction of hazardous aviation turbulence environments}, volume={94}, ISSN={["0177-7971"]}, DOI={10.1007/s00703-005-0181-4}, abstractNote={In this paper, we will focus on the real-time prediction of environments that are predisposed to producing moderate-severe (hazardous) aviation turbulence. We will describe the numerical model and its postprocessing system that is designed for said prediction of environments predisposed to severe aviation turbulence as well as presenting numerous examples of its utility. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that simple hydrostatic precursor circulations organize regions of preferred wave breaking and turbulence at the nonhydrostatic scales of motion. This will be demonstrated with a hydrostatic numerical modeling system, which can be run in real time on a very inexpensive university computer workstation employing simple forecast indices. The forecast system is designed to efficiently support forecasters who are directing research aircraft to measure the environment immediately surrounding turbulence. The numerical model is MASS version 5.13, which is integrated over three different grid matrices in real-time on a university workstation in support of NASA-Langley’s B-757 turbulence research flight missions. The model horizontal resolutions are 60, 30, and 15 km and the grids are centered over the region of operational NASA-Langley B-757 turbulence flight missions. The postprocessing system includes several turbulence-related products including four turbulence forecasting indices, winds, streamlines, turbulence kinetic energy, and Richardson numbers. Additionally there are convective products including precipitation, cloud height, cloud mass fluxes, lifted index, and K-index. Furthermore, soundings, sounding parameters, and Froude number plots are also provided. The horizontal cross section plot products are provided from 16,000–46,000 feet in 2,000 feet intervals. Products are available every three hours at the 60 and 30 km grid interval and every 1.5 hours at the 15 km grid interval. The model is initialized from the NWS ETA analyses and integrated two times a day.}, number={1-4}, journal={METEOROLOGY AND ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS}, author={Kaplan, M. L. and Charney, J. J. and Waight, K. T., III and Lux, K. M. and Cetola, J. D. and Huffman, A. W. and Riordan, A. J. and Slusser, S. D. and Kiefer, M. T. and Suffern, P. S. and et al.}, year={2006}, month={Nov}, pages={235–270} }
 @article{kaplan_huffman_lux_charney_riordan_lin_2005, title={Characterizing the severe turbulence environments associated with commercial aviation accidents. Part 1: A 44-case study synoptic observational analyses}, volume={88}, ISSN={["1436-5065"]}, DOI={10.1007/s00703-004-0080-0}, number={3-4}, journal={METEOROLOGY AND ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS}, author={Kaplan, ML and Huffman, AW and Lux, KM and Charney, JJ and Riordan, AJ and Lin, YL}, year={2005}, month={Apr}, pages={129–152} }
 @article{kaplan_huffman_lux_cetola_charney_riordan_lin_waight_2005, title={Characterizing the severe turbulence environments associated with commercial aviation accidents. Part 2: Hydrostatic mesoscale numerical simulations of supergradient wind flow and streamwise ageostrophic frontogenesis}, volume={88}, DOI={10.1007/s00703-004-0079-6}, number={04-Mar}, journal={Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics}, author={Kaplan, M. L. and Huffman, A. W. and Lux, K. M. and Cetola, J. D. and Charney, J. J. and Riordan, A. J. and Lin, Y. L. and Waight, K. T.}, year={2005}, pages={153–173} }
 @article{businger_graziano_kaplan_rozumalski_2005, title={Cold-air cyclogenesis along the Gulf-Stream front: investigation of diabatic impacts on cyclone development, frontal structure, and track}, volume={88}, ISSN={["0177-7971"]}, DOI={10.1007/s00703-003-0050-y}, number={1-2}, journal={METEOROLOGY AND ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS}, author={Businger, S and Graziano, TM and Kaplan, ML and Rozumalski, RA}, year={2005}, month={Mar}, pages={65–90} }
 @article{chiao_lin_kaplan_2004, title={Numerical study of the orographic forcing of heavy precipitation during MAP IOP-2B}, volume={132}, ISSN={["1520-0493"]}, DOI={10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<2184:NSOTOF>2.0.CO;2}, abstractNote={Abstract This paper investigates the local circulation associated with a heavy orographic rainfall event during 19–21 September 1999 [Mesoscale Alpine Programme Intensive Observing Period 2B (MAP IOP-2B)]. This event was simulated with a 5-km horizontal grid spacing using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5). The MM5 simulation reproduced the basic features such as the timing and location of the deep trough and the associated precipitation evolution, though the total amount of precipitation is slightly higher than that measured by rain gauges (∼30% in 24 h). The near-surface flow was dominated by an easterly jet originally from the Adriatic Sea and a southerly jet from the Gulf of Genoa. A significant westward turning occurred when the southerly flow approached the south side of the Alps. This deflection was caused by boundary layer friction and rotation, as well as mountain blocking effects. Flow was generally from the south above the surface. Precipitation was ma...}, number={9}, journal={MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW}, author={Chiao, S and Lin, YL and Kaplan, ML}, year={2004}, month={Sep}, pages={2184–2203} }
 @article{businger_adams_koch_kaplan_2003, title={Comments on ''extraction of geopotential height and temperature structure from profiler and rawinsonde winds'' - Reply}, volume={131}, ISSN={["0027-0644"]}, DOI={10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<1504:R>2.0.CO;2}, abstractNote={*Current affiliation: Anteon Corporation, Middletown, Rhode Island+Current affiliation: NOAA/FSL, Boulder, ColoradoCorresponding author address: Steven Businger, Dept. of Meteorology, University of Hawaii, 2525 Correa Rd., Honolulu, HI 96822. Email: businger@soest.hawaii.edu}, number={7}, journal={MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW}, author={Businger, S and Adams, ME and Koch, SE and Kaplan, ML}, year={2003}, month={Jul}, pages={1504–1506} }
 @article{zhang_koch_kaplan_2003, title={Numerical simulations of a large-amplitude mesoscale gravity wave event}, volume={84}, ISSN={["0177-7971"]}, DOI={10.1007/s00703-002-0594-2}, number={3-4}, journal={METEOROLOGY AND ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS}, author={Zhang, FQ and Koch, SE and Kaplan, ML}, year={2003}, month={Oct}, pages={199–216} }
 @article{businger_adams_koch_kaplan_2001, title={Extraction of geopotential height and temperature structure from profiler and rawinsonde winds}, volume={129}, ISSN={["0027-0644"]}, DOI={10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<1729:EOGHAT>2.0.CO;2}, abstractNote={Mesoscale height and temperature fields can be extracted from the observed wind field by making use of the full divergence equation. Mass changes associated with irrotational ageostrophic motions are retained for a nearly complete description of the height field. Above the boundary layer, in the absence of friction, the divergence equation includes terms composed of the components of the wind and a Laplacian of the geopotential height field. Once the mass field is determined, the thermal structure is obtained through application of the hypsometric equation. In this paper an error analysis of this divergence method is undertaken to estimate the potential magnitude of errors associated with random errors in the wind data. Previous applications of the divergence method have been refined in the following ways. (i) The domain over which the method is applied is expanded to encompass the entire STORM-FEST domain. (ii) Wind data from 23 profiler and 38 rawinsonde sites are combined in the analysis. (iii) Observed profiler and rawinsonde data are interpolated to grid points through a modified objective analysis, and (iv) the variation in elevation of the profiler sites is taken into account. The results of the application of the divergence method to the combined wind data from profiler and rawinsonde sites show good agreement between the retrieved heights and temperatures and the observed values at rawinsonde sites. Standard deviations of the difference between the retrieved and observed data lie well within the precision of the rawinsonde instruments. The difference field shows features whose magnitude is significantly larger than the errors predicted by the error analysis, and these features are systematic rather than random in nature, suggesting that the retrieved fields are able to resolve mesoscale signatures not fully captured by the rawinsonde data alone. The divergence method is also applied solely to the profiler data to demonstrate the potential of the divergence method to provide mass and thermal fields on a routine basis at synoptic times when operational rawinsonde data are not available. A comparison of the heights derived from the profiler winds with those independently measured by rawinsondes indicates that valuable information on the evolution of atmospheric height and temperature fields can be retrieved between conventional rawinsonde release times through application of the divergence method. The implications of the results for applications of the method in weather analysis and in numerical weather prediction are discussed.}, number={7}, journal={MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW}, author={Businger, S and Adams, ME and Koch, SE and Kaplan, ML}, year={2001}, pages={1729–1739} }
 @article{koch_zhang_kaplan_lin_weglarz_trexler_2001, title={Numerical simulations of a gravity wave event over CCOPE. Part III: The role of a mountain-plains solenoid in the generation of the second wave episode}, volume={129}, ISSN={["0027-0644"]}, DOI={10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<0909:NSOAGW>2.0.CO;2}, abstractNote={Abstract Mesoscale model simulations have been performed of the second episode of gravity waves observed in great detail in previous studies on 11–12 July 1981 during the Cooperative Convective Precipitation Experiment. The dominant wave simulated by the model was mechanically forced by the strong updraft associated with a mountain–plains solenoid (MPS). As this updraft impinged upon a stratified shear layer above the deep, well-mixed boundary layer that developed due to strong sensible heating over the Absaroka Mountains, the gravity wave was created. This wave rapidly weakened as it propagated eastward. However, explosive convection developed directly over the remnant gravity wave as an eastward-propagating density current produced by a rainband generated within the MPS leeside convergence zone merged with a westward-propagating density current in eastern Montana. The greatly strengthened cool pool resulting from this new convection then generated a bore wave that appeared to be continuous with the move...}, number={5}, journal={MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW}, author={Koch, SE and Zhang, FQ and Kaplan, ML and Lin, YL and Weglarz, R and Trexler, CM}, year={2001}, pages={909–933} }
 @article{lin_chiao_wang_kaplan_weglarz_2001, title={Some common ingredients for heavy orographic rainfall}, volume={16}, ISSN={["0882-8156"]}, DOI={10.1175/1520-0434(2001)016<0633:SCIFHO>2.0.CO;2}, abstractNote={Abstract The purpose of this paper is to synthesize some common synoptic and mesoscale environments conducive to heavy orographic rainfall. Previous studies of U.S. and Alpine cases and new analyses of some Alpine and east Asian cases have shown the following common synoptic and mesoscale environments are conducive to heavy orographic rainfall: 1) a conditionally or potentially unstable airstream impinging on the mountains, 2) a very moist low-level jet (LLJ), 3) a steep mountain, and 4) a quasi-stationary synoptic system to slow the convective system over the threat area. A deep short-wave trough is found to approach the threat area in the U.S. and European cases, but is not found in the east Asian cases. On the other hand, a high convective available potential energy (CAPE) value is observed in east Asian cases, but is not consistently observed in the U.S. and European cases. The enhancement of low-level upward motion and the increase of instability below the trough by the approaching deep short-wave tr...}, number={6}, journal={WEATHER AND FORECASTING}, author={Lin, YL and Chiao, S and Wang, TA and Kaplan, ML and Weglarz, RP}, year={2001}, pages={633–660} }
 @article{zhang_koch_davis_kaplan_2001, title={Wavelet analysis and the governing dynamics of a large-amplitude mesoscale gravity-wave event along the East Coast of the United States}, volume={127}, DOI={10.1256/smsqj.57701}, abstractNote={Detailed diagnostic analyses are performed upon a mesoscale numerical simulation of a well-observed gravity-wave event that occurred on 4 January 1994 along the East Coast of the United States. The value of using wavelet analysis to investigate the evolving gravity-wave structure and of using potential vorticity (PV) inversion to study the nature of the flow imbalance in the wave generation region is demonstrated. The cross-stream Lagrangian Rossby number, the residual in the nonlinear balance equation, and the unbalanced geopotential-height field obtained from PV inversion are each evaluated for their usefulness in diagnosing the flow imbalance. All of these fields showed clear evidence of strong imbalance associated with a middle-to-upper tropospheric jet streak, and tropopause fold upstream of the large-amplitude gravity wave several hours before the wave became apparent at the surface. Analysis indicates that a train of gravity waves was continuously generated by geostrophic adjustment in the exit region of the unbalanced upper-level jet streak as it approached the inflection axis in the height field immediately downstream of the maximum imbalance associated with the tropopause fold. A split front in the middle troposphere, characterized by the advance of the dry conveyor belt above the warm front, was overtaken by one of these propagating waves. During this merger process, a resonant interaction resulted, which promoted the rapid amplification and scale contraction of both the incipient wave (nonlinear wave development) and the split front (frontogenesis). The gravity wave and front aloft became inseparable following this merger. The situation became even more complex within a few hours as the vertical motion enhanced by this front-wave interaction acted upon a saturated, potentially unstable layer to produce elevated moist convection. An analysis of the temporal changes in the vertical profile of wave energy flux suggests that moist convective downdraughts efficiently transported the wave energy from the midlevels downward beneath the warm-front surface, where the wave became ducted. However, pure ducting was not sufficient for maintaining and amplifying the waves; rather, wave-CISK (Conditional Instability of the Second Kind) was crucial. This complex sequence of nonlinear interactions produced a long-lived, large-amplitude gravity wave that created hazardous winter weather and disrupted society over a broad and highly populated area. Although gravity waves with similar appearance to this large-amplitude wave of depression occasionally have been seen in other strong cyclogenesis cases involving a jet streak ahead of the upper-level trough axis, it is unknown whether other such events share this same sequence of interactions.}, number={577}, journal={Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society}, author={Zhang, F. Q. and Koch, S. E. and Davis, C. A. and Kaplan, M. L.}, year={2001}, pages={2209–2245} }
 @article{zhang_koch_davis_kaplan_2000, title={A survey of unbalanced flow diagnostics and their application}, volume={17}, ISSN={["0256-1530"]}, DOI={10.1007/s00376-000-0001-1}, number={2}, journal={ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES}, author={Zhang, FQ and Koch, SE and Davis, CA and Kaplan, ML}, year={2000}, pages={165–183} }
 @article{kaplan_lin_charney_pfeiffer_ensley_decroix_weglarz_2000, title={A terminal area PBL prediction system at Dallas-Fort Worth and its application in simulating diurnal PBL jets}, volume={81}, ISSN={["0003-0007"]}, DOI={10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<2179:ATAPPS>2.3.CO;2}, abstractNote={Abstract A state–of–the–science meso–b–scale numerical weather prediction model is being employed in a prototype forecast system for potential operational use at the Dallas–Fort Worth International Airport (DFW). The numerical model is part of a unique operational forecasting system being developed to support the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Terminal Area Productivity Program. This operational forecasting system will focus on meso–b–scale aviation weather problems involving planetary boundary layer (PBL) turbulence, and is named the Terminal Area PBL Prediction System (TAPPS). TAPPS (version 1) is being tested and developed for NASA in an effort to improve 1–6–h terminal area forecasts of wind, vertical wind shear, temperature, and turbulence within both stable and convective PBLs at major airport terminal areas. This is being done to enhance terminal area productivity, that is, aircraft arrival and departure throughput, by using the weather forecasts as part of the Aircraft Vort...}, number={9}, journal={BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY}, author={Kaplan, ML and Lin, YL and Charney, JJ and Pfeiffer, KD and Ensley, DB and DeCroix, DS and Weglarz, RP}, year={2000}, month={Sep}, pages={2179–2204} }
 @book{kaplan_steelman_2000, title={Matching carbon emission reduction projects to financing: building prototypes}, institution={Denver: Institute for Policy Implementation, Graduate School of Public Affairs, University of Colorado at Denver}, author={Kaplan, M. and Steelman, T. A.}, year={2000} }
 @article{egentowich_kaplan_lin_riordan_2000, title={Mesoscale simulations of dynamical factors discriminating between a tornado outbreak and non-event over the southeast US - Part I: 84-48 hour precursors}, volume={74}, ISSN={["0177-7971"]}, DOI={10.1007/s007030070030}, number={1-4}, journal={METEOROLOGY AND ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS}, author={Egentowich, JM and Kaplan, ML and Lin, YL and Riordan, AJ}, year={2000}, pages={129–157} }
 @article{egentowich_kaplan_lin_riordan_2000, title={Mesoscale simulations of dynamical factors discriminating between a tornado outbreak and non-event over the southeast US - Part II: 48-6 hour precursors}, volume={74}, ISSN={["0177-7971"]}, DOI={10.1007/s007030070031}, number={1-4}, journal={METEOROLOGY AND ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS}, author={Egentowich, JM and Kaplan, ML and Lin, YL and Riordan, AJ}, year={2000}, pages={159–187} }
 @article{egentowich_kaplan_lin_riordan_2000, title={Mesoscale simulations of dynamical factors discriminating between a tornado outbreak and non-event over the southeast US - Part III: 6 hour precursors}, volume={74}, ISSN={["0177-7971"]}, DOI={10.1007/s007030070032}, number={1-4}, journal={METEOROLOGY AND ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS}, author={Egentowich, JM and Kaplan, ML and Lin, YL and Riordan, AJ}, year={2000}, pages={189–215} }
 @book{kaplan_steelman_1999, title={Early start carbon emission reduction projects: challenge and opportunity}, institution={Denver: Institute for Policy Implementation, Graduate School of Public Affairs, University of Colorado at Denver}, author={Kaplan, M. and Steelman, T. A.}, year={1999} }
 @book{kaplan_steelman_wallis_1999, title={Sprawl and growth management: problems, experience and opportunity}, institution={Denver: University of Colorado at Denver, Institute for Public Policy Implementation and Evaluation}, author={Kaplan, M. and Steelman, T. A. and Wallis, A.}, year={1999} }
 @article{hamilton_lin_weglarz_kaplan_1998, title={Jetlet formation from diabatic forcing with applications to the 1994 Palm Sunday tornado outbreak}, volume={126}, ISSN={["0027-0644"]}, DOI={10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<2061:JFFDFW>2.0.CO;2}, abstractNote={Abstract The three-dimensional responses of simple stably stratified barotropic and baroclinic flows to prescribed diabatic forcing are investigated using a dry, hydrostatic, primitive equation numerical model (the North Carolina State University Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Model). A time-dependent diabatic forcing is utilized to isolate the effects of latent heat release in a midlatitude convective system. Examination of the mass-momentum adjustments to the diabatic forcing is performed with a focus on the development of an isolated midlevel wind maximum. The results of both cases suggest the formation of a midlevel wind maximum in the form of a perturbation meso-β-scale cyclone, which later propagates downstream as the heating is decreased. The scale of the perturbation cyclone remains at a sub-Rossby radius of deformation length scale. Therefore, the mass perturbations adjust to the wind perturbations as the mesocyclone propagates downstream. Transverse vertical circulations, which favor ascent on the r...}, number={8}, journal={MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW}, author={Hamilton, DW and Lin, YL and Weglarz, RP and Kaplan, ML}, year={1998}, month={Aug}, pages={2061–2089} }
 @book{kaplan_cuciti_steelman_1998, title={Post Kyoto strategies: the CDM, international cooperation and private sector participation}, institution={Denver: Institute for Policy Implementation, Graduate School of Public Affairs, University of Colorado at Denver}, author={Kaplan, M. and Cuciti, P. and Steelman, T. A.}, year={1998} }
 @article{kaplan_lin_hamilton_rozumalski_1998, title={The numerical simulation of an unbalanced jetlet and its role in the Palm Sunday 1994 tornado outbreak in Alabama and Georgia}, volume={126}, ISSN={["0027-0644"]}, DOI={10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<2133:TNSOAU>2.0.CO;2}, abstractNote={Abstract Meso-beta-scale numerical model simulations and observational data are synthesized in an effort to develop a multistage paradigm for use in forecasting tornadic convection in the southeastern United States. The case study to be utilized as an example of the multistage sequence of events is the Palm Sunday 1994 outbreak, which culminates with the development of an unbalanced mesoscale jet streak or jetlet that focuses a given region for significant values of low-level vertical wind shear, low-level confluence and vertical vorticity, midtropospheric cooling, and storm-relative helicity. The five-stage paradigm includes 1) the existence of a jet exit region accompanying a deep balanced thermally indirect circulation south of the outbreak and a return branch ageostrophic low-level southerly jet, both typically accompanying the subtropical jet stream and the leading edge of hot continental air; 2) the existence of a jet entrance region accompanying a deep balanced thermally direct circulation north of...}, number={8}, journal={MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW}, author={Kaplan, ML and Lin, YL and Hamilton, DW and Rozumalski, RA}, year={1998}, month={Aug}, pages={2133–2165} }
 @article{bauman_kaplan_businger_1997, title={Nowcasting convective activity for space shuttle landings during easterly flow regimes}, volume={12}, DOI={10.1175/1520-0434(1997)012<0078:NCAFSS>2.0.CO;2}, abstractNote={Abstract Space shuttle landings at the shuttle landing facility at Kennedy Space Center are subject to strict weather-related launch commit criteria and flight rules. Complex launch commit criteria and end-of-mission flight rules demand very accurate nowcasts (forecasts of less than 2 h) of cloud, wind, visibility, precipitation, turbulence, and thunderstorms prior to shuttle launches and landings. During easterly flow regimes the onset of convective activity has proven to be particularly difficult to predict. Contrasting weather ranging from clear skies to thunderstorms occurs on days with seemingly similar synoptic environments. Four days of easterly flow during the Convection and Precipitation/Electrification (CaPE) Experiment were investigated in an effort to identify and simulate key features that distinguish convectively active and suppressed conditions. Data from CaPE and operational data, including satellite imagery and National Centers for Environmental Prediction model analysis output over the F...}, number={1}, journal={Weather and Forecasting}, author={Bauman, W. H. and Kaplan, M. L. and Businger, S.}, year={1997}, pages={78–107} }
 @article{kaplan_koch_lin_weglarz_rozumalski_1997, title={Numerical simulations of a gravity wave event over CCOPE .1. The role of geostrophic adjustment in mesoscale jetlet formation}, volume={125}, ISSN={["1520-0493"]}, DOI={10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<1185:NSOAGW>2.0.CO;2}, abstractNote={Abstract Mesoscale model simulations are performed in order to provide insight into the complex role of jet streak adjustments in establishing an environment favorable to the generation of gravity waves on 11–12 July 1981. This wave event was observed in unprecedented detail downstream of the Rocky Mountains in Montana during the Cooperative Convective Precipitation Experiment. The high-resolution model simulations employ a variety of terrain treatments in the absence of the complicating effects of precipitation physics in order to examine the complex interactions between orography and adiabatic geostrophic adjustment processes. Results indicate that prior to gravity wave formation, a four-stage geostrophic adjustment process modified the structure of the mid- to upper-tropospheric jet streak by creating secondary mesoscale jet streaks (jetlets) to the southeast of the polar jet streak in proximity to the gravity wave generation region (WGR). During stage I, a strong rightward-directed ageostrophic flow i...}, number={6}, journal={MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW}, author={Kaplan, ML and Koch, SE and Lin, YL and Weglarz, RP and Rozumalski, RA}, year={1997}, month={Jun}, pages={1185–1211} }