@article{legros_magori_morrison_xu_scott_lloyd_gould_2011, title={Evaluation of Location-Specific Predictions by a Detailed Simulation Model of Aedes aegypti Populations}, volume={6}, ISSN={1932-6203}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0022701}, DOI={10.1371/journal.pone.0022701}, abstractNote={Background Skeeter Buster is a stochastic, spatially explicit simulation model of Aedes aegypti populations, designed to predict the outcome of vector population control methods. In this study, we apply the model to two specific locations, the cities of Iquitos, Peru, and Buenos Aires, Argentina. These two sites differ in the amount of field data that is available for location-specific customization. By comparing output from Skeeter Buster to field observations in these two cases we evaluate population dynamics predictions by Skeeter Buster with varying degrees of customization. Methodology/Principal Findings Skeeter Buster was customized to the Iquitos location by simulating the layout of houses and the associated distribution of water-holding containers, based on extensive surveys of Ae. aegypti populations and larval habitats that have been conducted in Iquitos for over 10 years. The model is calibrated by adjusting the food input into various types of containers to match their observed pupal productivity in the field. We contrast the output of this customized model to the data collected from the natural population, comparing pupal numbers and spatial distribution of pupae in the population. Our results show that Skeeter Buster replicates specific population dynamics and spatial structure of Ae. aegypti in Iquitos. We then show how Skeeter Buster can be customized for Buenos Aires, where we only had Ae. aegypti abundance data that was averaged across all locations. In the Argentina case Skeeter Buster provides a satisfactory simulation of temporal population dynamics across seasons. Conclusions This model can provide a faithful description of Ae. aegypti populations, through a process of location-specific customization that is contingent on the amount of data available from field collections. We discuss limitations presented by some specific components of the model such as the description of food dynamics and challenges that these limitations bring to model evaluation.}, number={7}, journal={PLoS ONE}, publisher={Public Library of Science (PLoS)}, author={Legros, Mathieu and Magori, Krisztian and Morrison, Amy C. and Xu, Chonggang and Scott, Thomas W. and Lloyd, Alun L. and Gould, Fred}, editor={Ooi, Eng EongEditor}, year={2011}, month={Jul}, pages={e22701} }
 @article{magori_legros_puente_focks_scott_lloyd_gould_2009, title={Skeeter Buster: A Stochastic, Spatially Explicit Modeling Tool for Studying Aedes aegypti Population Replacement and Population Suppression Strategies}, volume={3}, ISSN={1935-2735}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0000508}, DOI={10.1371/journal.pntd.0000508}, abstractNote={Background Dengue is the most important mosquito-borne viral disease affecting humans. The only prevention measure currently available is the control of its vectors, primarily Aedes aegypti. Recent advances in genetic engineering have opened the possibility for a new range of control strategies based on genetically modified mosquitoes. Assessing the potential efficacy of genetic (and conventional) strategies requires the availability of modeling tools that accurately describe the dynamics and genetics of Ae. aegypti populations. Methodology/Principal findings We describe in this paper a new modeling tool of Ae. aegypti population dynamics and genetics named Skeeter Buster. This model operates at the scale of individual water-filled containers for immature stages and individual properties (houses) for adults. The biology of cohorts of mosquitoes is modeled based on the algorithms used in the non-spatial Container Inhabiting Mosquitoes Simulation Model (CIMSiM). Additional features incorporated into Skeeter Buster include stochasticity, spatial structure and detailed population genetics. We observe that the stochastic modeling of individual containers in Skeeter Buster is associated with a strongly reduced temporal variation in stage-specific population densities. We show that heterogeneity in container composition of individual properties has a major impact on spatial heterogeneity in population density between properties. We detail how adult dispersal reduces this spatial heterogeneity. Finally, we present the predicted genetic structure of the population by calculating FST values and isolation by distance patterns, and examine the effects of adult dispersal and container movement between properties. Conclusions/Significance We demonstrate that the incorporated stochasticity and level of spatial detail have major impacts on the simulated population dynamics, which could potentially impact predictions in terms of control measures. The capacity to describe population genetics confers the ability to model the outcome of genetic control methods. Skeeter Buster is therefore an important tool to model Ae. aegypti populations and the outcome of vector control measures.}, number={9}, journal={PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases}, publisher={Public Library of Science (PLoS)}, author={Magori, Krisztian and Legros, Mathieu and Puente, Molly E. and Focks, Dana A. and Scott, Thomas W. and Lloyd, Alun L. and Gould, Fred}, editor={Kittayapong, PattamapornEditor}, year={2009}, month={Sep}, pages={e508} }
 @article{puente_magori_kennedy_gould_2008, title={Impact of Herbivore-induced Plant Volatiles on Parasitoid Foraging Success: A Spatial Simulation of the Cotesia rubecula, Pieris rapae, and Brassica oleracea System}, volume={34}, ISSN={0098-0331 1573-1561}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10886-008-9472-9}, DOI={10.1007/s10886-008-9472-9}, abstractNote={Many parasitoids are known to use herbivore-induced plant volatiles as cues to locate hosts. However, data are lacking on how much of an advantage a parasitoid can gain from following these plant cues and which factors can limit the value of these cues to the parasitoid. In this study, we simulate the Cotesia rubecula-Pieris rapae-Brassica oleracea system, and ask how many more hosts can a parasitoid attack in a single day of foraging by following plant signals versus randomly foraging. We vary herbivore density, plant response time, parasitoid flight distance, and available host stages to see under which conditions parasitoids benefit from herbivore-induced plant cues. In most of the parameter combinations studied, parasitoids that responded to cues attacked more hosts than those that foraged randomly. Parasitoids following plant cues attacked up to ten times more hosts when they were able to successfully attack herbivores older than first instar; however, if parasitoids were limited to first instar hosts, those following plant cues were at a disadvantage when plants took longer than a day to respond to herbivory. At low herbivore densities, only parasitoids with a larger foraging radius could take advantage of plant cues. Although preference for herbivore-induced volatiles was not always beneficial for a parasitoid, under the most likely natural conditions, the model predicts that C. rubecula gains fitness from following plant cues.}, number={7}, journal={Journal of Chemical Ecology}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Puente, Molly and Magori, Krisztian and Kennedy, George G. and Gould, Fred}, year={2008}, month={Apr}, pages={959–970} }
 @article{huang_magori_lloyd_gould_2007, title={Introducing desirable transgenes into insect populations using Y-linked meiotic drive - A theoretical assessment}, volume={61}, ISSN={["1558-5646"]}, url={https://publons.com/publon/8533052/}, DOI={10.1111/j.1558-5646.2007.00075.x}, abstractNote={Abstract The use of genetic drive mechanisms to replace native mosquito genotypes with individuals bearing antipathogen transgenes is a potential strategy for repressing insect transmission of human diseases such as malaria and dengue. Antipathogen transgenes have been developed and tested, but efficient gene drive mechanisms are lacking. Here we theoretically assess the feasibility of introducing antipathogen genes into wild Aedes aegypti populations by using a naturally occurring meiotic drive system. We consider the release of males having both a Y-linked meiotic drive gene and an X-linked drive-insensitive response allele to which an antipathogen gene is linked. We use mathematical models and computer simulations to determine how the post-introduction dynamics of the antipathogen gene are affected by specific genetic characteristics of the system. The results show that when the natural population is uniformly sensitive to the meiotic drive gene, the antipathogen gene may be driven close to fixation if the fitness costs of the drive gene, the insensitive response allele, and the antipathogen gene are low. However, when the natural population has a small proportion of an X-linked insensitive response allele or an autosomal gene that strongly reduces the effect of the drive gene, the antipathogen gene does not spread if it has an associated fitness cost. Our modeling results provide a theoretical foundation for further experimental tests.}, number={4}, journal={EVOLUTION}, publisher={Blackwell Publishing Inc}, author={Huang, Yunxin and Magori, Krisztian and Lloyd, Alun L. and Gould, Fred}, year={2007}, month={Apr}, pages={717–726} }
 @article{gould_magori_huang_2006, title={Genetic strategies for controlling mosquito-borne diseases}, volume={94}, ISSN={["0003-0996"]}, DOI={10.1511/2006.3.238}, number={3}, journal={AMERICAN SCIENTIST}, author={Gould, F and Magori, K and Huang, YX}, year={2006}, pages={238–246} }
 @article{magori_gould_2006, title={Genetically engineered underdominance for manipulation of pest populations: A deterministic model}, volume={172}, ISSN={["0016-6731"]}, DOI={10.1534/genetics.105.051789}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={4}, journal={GENETICS}, author={Magori, K and Gould, F}, year={2006}, month={Apr}, pages={2613–2620} }