@article{kiefer_parker_charney_2010, title={Regimes of Dry Convection above Wildfires: Sensitivity to Fire Line Details}, volume={67}, ISSN={["1520-0469"]}, DOI={10.1175/2009jas3226.1}, abstractNote={AbstractFire lines are complex phenomena with a broad range of scales of cross-line dimension, undulations, and along-line variation in heating rates. While some earlier studies have examined parcel processes in two-dimensional simulations, the complexity of fire lines in nature motivates a study in which the impact of three-dimensional fire line details on parcel processes is examined systematically. This numerical modeling study aims to understand how fundamental processes identified in 2D simulations operate in 3D simulations where the fire line is neither straight nor uniform in intensity. The first step is to perform simulations in a 3D model, with no fire line undulations or inhomogeneity. In general, convective modes simulated in the 2D model are reproduced in the 3D model. In one particular case with strong vertical wind shear, new convection develops separate from the main line of convection as a result of local changes to parcel speed and heating. However, in general the processes in the 2D and 3D simulations are identical. The second step is to examine 3D experiments wherein fire line shape and along-line inhomogeneity are varied. Parcel heating, as well as convective mode, is shown to exhibit sensitivity to fire line shape and along-line inhomogeneity.}, number={3}, journal={JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES}, author={Kiefer, Michael T. and Parker, Matthew D. and Charney, Joseph J.}, year={2010}, month={Mar}, pages={611–632} } @article{kiefer_lin_charney_2008, title={A study of two-dimensional dry convective plume modes with variable critical level height}, volume={65}, ISSN={["0022-4928"]}, DOI={10.1175/2007JAS2301.1}, abstractNote={AbstractThis study investigates the impact of wind speed and critical level height on dry convection above a prescribed heat source. This is done using the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) model in its two-dimensional form with an imposed 400-K soil potential temperature perturbation. The result of these experiments is the identification of three modes of convective plumes. The first, termed multicell convective plumes, is analogous to multicell convection generated from squall-line cold pools in the moist atmosphere. The second mode, a deep wave mode, consists of disturbances with wavelengths of 7–10 km and results from the multicell plumes perturbing the dynamically unstable shear flow centered at the critical level. The third mode, termed the intense fire plume, has stronger updrafts than the multicell mode and is marked by quasi-stationary movement and substantial low-level inflow and upper-level outflow. The presence of a critical level is shown to be crucial to the development of both the deep wave and intense plume modes. The intense fire plume mode is most consistent with the so-called fire storm, or conflagration phenomenon, in which strong updrafts and low-level indrafts can produce mesocyclones and tornadic fire whirls capable of significant damage. This study marks an important step in understanding the dynamics behind the fire storm phenomenon, as well as other types of convection (multicell and deep wave) that may be generated by a fire.}, number={2}, journal={JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES}, author={Kiefer, Michael T. and Lin, Yuh-Lang and Charney, Joseph J.}, year={2008}, month={Feb}, pages={448–469} } @article{kiefer_parker_charney_2009, title={Regimes of Dry Convection above Wildfires: Idealized Numerical Simulations and Dimensional Analysis}, volume={66}, ISSN={["1520-0469"]}, DOI={10.1175/2008JAS2896.1}, abstractNote={AbstractWildfires are capable of inducing atmospheric circulations that result predominantly from large temperature anomalies produced by the fire. The fundamental dynamics through which a forest fire and the atmosphere interact to yield different convective regimes is still not well understood. This study uses the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) model to investigate the impact of the environmental (i.e., far upstream, undisturbed by fire) wind profile on dry convection above a prescribed heat source of an intensity and spatial scale comparable to a wildfire. Dimensional analysis of the fire–atmosphere problem provides two relevant parameters: a surface buoyancy parameter that addresses the amount of heat a parcel of air receives in transiting above the fire and an advection parameter that addresses the degree to which the environmental wind advects updrafts away from the fire. Two-dimensional simulations are performed in which the upstream surface wind speed and mixed layer mean wind speed are varied independently to better understand the fundamental processes governing the organizational mode and updraft strength.The result of these experiments is the identification of two primary classes of dry convection: plume and multicell. Simulated plume cases exhibit weak advection by the mean wind and are subdivided into intense plume and hybrid classes based on the degree of steadiness within the convection column. Hybrid cases contain columns of largely discrete updrafts versus the more continuous updraft column associated with the intense plume mode. Multicell cases develop with strong mixed layer advection and are subdivided into strong and weak classes based on the depth of convection. Intense plume and strong multicell (hybrid and weak multicell) cases occur when the surface buoyancy is large (small). Parcel analyses are performed to more closely examine the forcing of convection within different areas of the parameter space. The multicell (strong and weak) and intense plume modes are forced by a combination of buoyancy and dynamic pressure gradient forcing associated with the perturbation wind field, whereas the hybrid mode is forced by a combination of buoyancy and dynamic pressure gradient forcing associated with the strong background shear.The paper concludes with a discussion of the degree of nonlinearity that is likely to exist at the fire front for each of the convective modes; nonlinear fire behavior is most likely for the hybrid mode and least likely for the weak multicell mode. Knowledge of the sensitivity of the convective mode to upstream conditions can provide information about the degree of nonlinear or erratic fire behavior expected for a given wind profile upstream of the fire.}, number={4}, journal={JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES}, author={Kiefer, Michael T. and Parker, Matthew D. and Charney, Joseph J.}, year={2009}, month={Apr}, pages={806–836} } @article{kaplan_charney_waight_lux_cetola_huffman_riordan_slusser_kiefer_suffern_et al._2006, title={Characterizing the severe turbulence environments associated with commercial aviation accidents. A real-time turbulence model (RTTM) designed for the operational prediction of hazardous aviation turbulence environments}, volume={94}, ISSN={["0177-7971"]}, DOI={10.1007/s00703-005-0181-4}, abstractNote={In this paper, we will focus on the real-time prediction of environments that are predisposed to producing moderate-severe (hazardous) aviation turbulence. We will describe the numerical model and its postprocessing system that is designed for said prediction of environments predisposed to severe aviation turbulence as well as presenting numerous examples of its utility. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that simple hydrostatic precursor circulations organize regions of preferred wave breaking and turbulence at the nonhydrostatic scales of motion. This will be demonstrated with a hydrostatic numerical modeling system, which can be run in real time on a very inexpensive university computer workstation employing simple forecast indices. The forecast system is designed to efficiently support forecasters who are directing research aircraft to measure the environment immediately surrounding turbulence. The numerical model is MASS version 5.13, which is integrated over three different grid matrices in real-time on a university workstation in support of NASA-Langley’s B-757 turbulence research flight missions. The model horizontal resolutions are 60, 30, and 15 km and the grids are centered over the region of operational NASA-Langley B-757 turbulence flight missions. The postprocessing system includes several turbulence-related products including four turbulence forecasting indices, winds, streamlines, turbulence kinetic energy, and Richardson numbers. Additionally there are convective products including precipitation, cloud height, cloud mass fluxes, lifted index, and K-index. Furthermore, soundings, sounding parameters, and Froude number plots are also provided. The horizontal cross section plot products are provided from 16,000–46,000 feet in 2,000 feet intervals. Products are available every three hours at the 60 and 30 km grid interval and every 1.5 hours at the 15 km grid interval. The model is initialized from the NWS ETA analyses and integrated two times a day.}, number={1-4}, journal={METEOROLOGY AND ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS}, author={Kaplan, M. L. and Charney, J. J. and Waight, K. T., III and Lux, K. M. and Cetola, J. D. and Huffman, A. W. and Riordan, A. J. and Slusser, S. D. and Kiefer, M. T. and Suffern, P. S. and et al.}, year={2006}, month={Nov}, pages={235–270} }