@article{turnau_robinson_lackmann_michaelis_2022, title={Model Projections of Increased Severity of Heat Waves in Eastern Europe}, volume={49}, ISSN={["1944-8007"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100183}, DOI={10.1029/2022GL100183}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={22}, journal={GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS}, author={Turnau, Roger and Robinson, Walter A. A. and Lackmann, Gary M. M. and Michaelis, Allison C. C.}, year={2022}, month={Nov} }
 @article{lackmann_miller_robinson_michaelis_2021, title={Persistent Anomaly Changes in High-Resolution Climate Simulations}, volume={34}, ISSN={["1520-0442"]}, url={http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-85106939084&partnerID=MN8TOARS}, DOI={10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0465.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={13}, journal={JOURNAL OF CLIMATE}, author={Lackmann, Gary M. and Miller, Rebecca L. and Robinson, Walter A. and Michaelis, Allison C.}, year={2021}, month={Jul}, pages={5425–5442} }
 @article{michaelis_lackmann_2021, title={Storm-Scale Dynamical Changes of Extratropical Transition Events in Present-Day and Future High-Resolution Global Simulations}, volume={34}, ISSN={["1520-0442"]}, DOI={10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0472.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={12}, journal={JOURNAL OF CLIMATE}, author={Michaelis, Allison C. and Lackmann, Gary M.}, year={2021}, month={Jun}, pages={5037–5062} }
 @article{michaelis_lackmann_2019, title={Climatological Changes in the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones in High-Resolution Global Simulations}, volume={32}, ISSN={["1520-0442"]}, DOI={10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0259.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={24}, journal={JOURNAL OF CLIMATE}, author={Michaelis, Allison C. and Lackmann, Gary M.}, year={2019}, month={Dec}, pages={8733–8753} }
 @article{michaelis_lackmann_robinson_2019, title={Evaluation of a unique approach to high-resolution climate modeling using the Model for Prediction Across Scales - Atmosphere (MPAS-A) version 5.1}, volume={12}, ISSN={["1991-9603"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3725-2019}, DOI={10.5194/gmd-12-3725-2019}, abstractNote={Abstract. We present multi-seasonal simulations representative of
present-day and future environments using the global Model for Prediction
Across Scales – Atmosphere (MPAS-A) version 5.1 with high resolution (15 km)
throughout the Northern Hemisphere. We select 10 simulation years with
varying phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and integrate each
for 14.5 months. We use analyzed sea surface temperature (SST) patterns for
present-day simulations. For the future climate simulations, we alter
present-day SSTs by applying monthly-averaged temperature changes derived
from a 20-member ensemble of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5
(CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs) following the Representative
Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 emissions scenario. Daily sea ice fields,
obtained from the monthly-averaged CMIP5 ensemble mean sea ice, are used for
present-day and future simulations. The present-day simulations provide a
reasonable reproduction of large-scale atmospheric features in the Northern
Hemisphere such as the wintertime midlatitude storm tracks,
upper-tropospheric jets, and maritime sea-level pressure features as well as
annual precipitation patterns across the tropics. The simulations also
adequately represent tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics such as strength,
spatial distribution, and seasonal cycles for most Northern Hemisphere
basins. These results demonstrate the applicability of these model
simulations for future studies examining climate change effects on various
Northern Hemisphere phenomena, and, more generally, the utility of MPAS-A
for studying climate change at spatial scales generally unachievable in
GCMs.
                    }, number={8}, journal={GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT}, publisher={Copernicus GmbH}, author={Michaelis, Allison C. and Lackmann, Gary M. and Robinson, Walter A.}, year={2019}, month={Aug}, pages={3725–3743} }
 @article{michaelis_willison_lackmann_robinson_2017, title={Changes in Winter North Atlantic Extratropical Cyclones in High-Resolution Regional Pseudo-Global Warming Simulations}, volume={30}, ISSN={["1520-0442"]}, url={http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-85027249354&partnerID=MN8TOARS}, DOI={10.1175/jcli-d-16-0697.1}, abstractNote={ The present study investigates changes in the location, frequency, intensity, and dynamical processes of North Atlantic extratropical cyclones with warming consistent with the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. The modeling, analysis, and prediction (MAP) climatology of midlatitude storminess (MCMS) feature-tracking algorithm was utilized to analyze 10 cold-season high-resolution atmospheric simulations over the North Atlantic region in current and future climates. Enhanced extratropical cyclone activity is most evident in the northeast North Atlantic and off the U.S. East Coast. These changes in cyclone activity are offset from changes in eddy kinetic energy and eddy heat flux. Investigation of the minimum SLP reached at each grid point reveals a lack of correspondence between the strongest events in the current and future simulations, indicating the future simulations produced a different population of storms. Examination of the percent change of storms in the storm-track region shows a reduction in the number of strong storms (i.e., those reaching a minimum SLP perturbation of at least −51 hPa). Storm-relative composites of strong and moderate storms show an increase in precipitation, associated with enhanced latent heat release and strengthening of the 900–700-hPa layer-average potential vorticity (PV). Other structural changes found for cyclones in a future climate include weakened upper-level PV for strong storms and a weakened near-surface potential temperature anomaly for moderate storms, demonstrating a change in storm dynamics. Furthermore, the impacts associated with extratropical cyclones, such as strong near-surface winds and heavy precipitation, strengthen and become more frequent with warming. }, number={17}, journal={JOURNAL OF CLIMATE}, author={Michaelis, Allison C. and Willison, Jeff and Lackmann, Gary M. and Robinson, Walter A.}, year={2017}, month={Sep}, pages={6905–6925} }
 @article{michaelis_lackmann_2013, title={Numerical modeling of a historic storm: Simulating the Blizzard of 1888}, volume={40}, ISSN={["1944-8007"]}, DOI={10.1002/grl.50750}, abstractNote={The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) is used to explore the feasibility of high‐resolution simulation of a historic extratropical cyclone event: The New England Blizzard of 1888. Using the 20CR as initial and lateral boundary conditions for the Weather Research and Forecasting model, a reasonable depiction of the cyclone is obtained, albeit displaced significantly to the north of the observed cyclone during the later stages of the event. Despite the position error, the simulated storm produces heavy snowfall over parts of New England and intense offshore cyclogenesis.}, number={15}, journal={GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS}, author={Michaelis, Allison C. and Lackmann, Gary M.}, year={2013}, month={Aug}, pages={4092–4097} }