@article{massoud_lee_terando_wehner_2023, title={Bayesian weighting of climate models based on climate sensitivity}, volume={4}, ISSN={["2662-4435"]}, DOI={10.1038/s43247-023-01009-8}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={1}, journal={COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT}, author={Massoud, Elias C. and Lee, Hugo K. and Terando, Adam and Wehner, Michael}, year={2023}, month={Oct} }
 @article{jewell_peterson_martin_stevenson_terando_teseneer_2023, title={Conservation decision makers worry about relevancy and funding but not climate change}, volume={1}, ISSN={["2328-5540"]}, DOI={10.1002/wsb.1424}, abstractNote={Abstract}, journal={WILDLIFE SOCIETY BULLETIN}, author={Jewell, Kathryn and Peterson, M. Nils and Martin, Mallory and Stevenson, Kathryn T. and Terando, Adam and Teseneer, Rachel}, year={2023}, month={Jan} }
 @article{boone_moorman_moscicki_collier_chamberlain_terando_pacifici_2023, title={Robust assessment of associations between weather and eastern wild turkey nest success}, volume={11}, ISSN={["1937-2817"]}, DOI={10.1002/jwmg.22524}, abstractNote={Abstract}, journal={JOURNAL OF WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT}, author={Boone, Wesley W. and Moorman, Christopher E. and Moscicki, David J. and Collier, Bret A. and Chamberlain, Michael J. and Terando, Adam J. and Pacifici, Krishna}, year={2023}, month={Nov} }
 @article{sanchez_petrasova_skrip_collins_lawrimore_vogler_terando_vukomanovic_mitasova_meentemeyer_2023, title={Spatially interactive modeling of land change identifies location-specific adaptations most likely to lower future flood risk}, volume={13}, ISSN={["2045-2322"]}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-46195-9}, DOI={10.1038/s41598-023-46195-9}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={1}, journal={SCIENTIFIC REPORTS}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Sanchez, Georgina M. and Petrasova, Anna and Skrip, Megan M. and Collins, Elyssa L. and Lawrimore, Margaret A. and Vogler, John B. and Terando, Adam and Vukomanovic, Jelena and Mitasova, Helena and Meentemeyer, Ross K.}, year={2023}, month={Nov} }
 @article{montefiore_nelson_staudinger_terando_2023, title={Vulnerability of Estuarine Systems in the Contiguous United States to Water Quality Change Under Future Climate and Land-Use}, volume={11}, ISSN={["2328-4277"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002884}, DOI={10.1029/2022EF002884}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={3}, journal={EARTHS FUTURE}, author={Montefiore, L. R. and Nelson, N. G. and Staudinger, M. D. and Terando, A.}, year={2023}, month={Mar} }
 @article{louthan_keighron_kiekebusch_cayton_terando_morris_2022, title={Climate change weakens the impact of disturbance interval on the growth rate of natural populations of Venus flytrap}, ISSN={["1557-7015"]}, DOI={10.1002/ecm.1528}, abstractNote={Abstract}, journal={ECOLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS}, author={Louthan, Allison M. and Keighron, Melina and Kiekebusch, Elsita and Cayton, Heather and Terando, Adam and Morris, William F.}, year={2022}, month={Jul} }
 @article{collins_sanchez_terando_stillwell_mitasova_sebastian_meentemeyer_2022, title={Predicting flood damage probability across the conterminous United States}, volume={17}, ISSN={["1748-9326"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4f0f}, DOI={10.1088/1748-9326/ac4f0f}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={3}, journal={ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS}, author={Collins, Elyssa L. and Sanchez, Georgina M. and Terando, Adam and Stillwell, Charles C. and Mitasova, Helena and Sebastian, Antonia and Meentemeyer, Ross K.}, year={2022}, month={Mar} }
 @article{kupfer_lackstrom_grego_dow_terando_hiers_2022, title={Prescribed fire in longleaf pine ecosystems: fire managers' perspectives on priorities, constraints, and future prospects}, volume={18}, ISSN={["1933-9747"]}, DOI={10.1186/s42408-022-00151-6}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={1}, journal={FIRE ECOLOGY}, author={Kupfer, John A. and Lackstrom, Kirsten and Grego, John M. and Dow, Kirstin and Terando, Adam J. and Hiers, J. Kevin}, year={2022}, month={Nov} }
 @article{campos-cerqueira_terando_murray_collazo_aide_2021, title={Climate change is creating a mismatch between protected areas and suitable habitats for frogs and birds in Puerto Rico}, volume={7}, ISSN={["1572-9710"]}, DOI={10.1007/s10531-021-02258-9}, abstractNote={Abstract}, journal={BIODIVERSITY AND CONSERVATION}, author={Campos-Cerqueira, Marconi and Terando, Adam J. and Murray, Brent A. and Collazo, Jaime A. and Aide, T. Mitchell}, year={2021}, month={Jul} }
 @misc{terando_hiers_williams_goodrick_o'brien_2021, title={Is there a dry season in the Southeast US?}, volume={27}, ISSN={["1365-2486"]}, DOI={10.1111/gcb.15399}, abstractNote={Fill et al., (2019; F19) reported significant increases in dry season length (DSL) over the past 120 years (1897-2017) in the Southeast US, a region associated with a frequent fire regime. However, a well-defined dry season is typically more closely associated with the sub-tropical climate of Peninsular Florida (Peninsular Florida; Beckage et al., 2006). Using historical weather station observations scaled to 21 climate divisions, F19 reported significantly increasing DSLs in all but one climate division, and an astonishing 156-day trend increase in DSL in Texas.}, number={4}, journal={GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY}, author={Terando, Adam and Hiers, John Kevin and Williams, Marcus and Goodrick, Scott L. and O'Brien, Joseph J.}, year={2021}, month={Feb}, pages={713–715} }
 @article{rivera-burgos_collazo_terando_pacifici_2021, title={Linking demographic rates to local environmental conditions: Empirical data to support climate adaptation strategies for Eleutherodactylus frogs}, volume={28}, ISSN={["2351-9894"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2021.e01624}, DOI={10.1016/j.gecco.2021.e01624}, abstractNote={Conducting managed species translocations and establishing climate change refugia are adaptation strategies to cope with projected consequences of global warming, but successful implementation requires on-the-ground validation of demographic responses to transient climate conditions. Here we estimated the effect of nine abiotic and biotic factors on local occupancy and an index of abundance (few or chorus) for four amphibian species (Eleutherodactylus wightmanae, E. brittoni, E. antillensis, and E. coqui) in Puerto Rico, USA. We also assessed how the same factors influenced reproductive activity of E. coqui and how species responded to hurricane María (20 September 2017). As predicted, occupancy and abundance of E. wightmanae, E. brittoni and E. coqui were positively and strongly influenced by abiotic covariates (e.g., relative humidity) that characterize high elevation, mesic habitats. E. antillensis exhibited the opposite pattern, with highest probabilities (≥0.6) recorded at ≤300 m and with average relative humidity<75%. Biotic covariates (e.g., canopy cover) had a weak influence on both parameters, regardless of species. High probabilities (≥0.9) of detecting an E. coqui chorus and active nests occurred at sites experiencing average relative humidity of>80% and temperature of ≤26 °C. Moderate to high probabilities of detecting a chorus (0.4–0.7) were recorded at sites with average temperatures>26 °C, but no reproductive activity was detected, implying that monitoring abundance alone could misrepresent the capacity of a local population to sustain itself. The possibility underscores the importance of understanding the interplay between local demographic and environmental parameters in the advent of global warming to help guide monitoring and management decisions, especially for high elevation specialists. Hurricanes can inflict marked reductions in population numbers, but impacts vary by location and species. We found that the abundance (chorus) of E. antillensis and E. brittoni increased after the hurricane, but the abundance of the other two species did not differ between years. Lack of impacts was probably mediated by low structural damage to forest tracts (e.g., 9% canopy loss). Our findings help assess habitat suitability in terms of parameters that foster local population growth, which provides a basis for testing spatio-temporal predictions about demographic rates in potential climate refugia and for designing criteria to help guide managed translocations.}, journal={GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND CONSERVATION}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Rivera-Burgos, Ana C. and Collazo, Jaime A. and Terando, Adam J. and Pacifici, Krishna}, year={2021}, month={Aug} }
 @article{gao_terando_kupfer_varner_stambaugh_lei_hiers_2021, title={Robust projections of future fire probability for the conterminous United States}, volume={789}, ISSN={["1879-1026"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147872}, abstractNote={Globally increasing wildfires have been attributed to anthropogenic climate change. However, providing decision makers with a clear understanding of how future planetary warming could affect fire regimes is complicated by confounding land use factors that influence wildfire and by uncertainty associated with model simulations of climate change. We use an ensemble of statistically downscaled Global Climate Models in combination with the Physical Chemistry Fire Frequency Model (PC2FM) to project changing potential fire probabilities in the conterminous United States for two scenarios representing lower (RCP 4.5) and higher (RCP 8.5) greenhouse gas emission futures. PC2FM is a physically-based and scale-independent model that predicts mean fire return intervals from both fire reactant and reaction variables, which are largely dependent on a locale's climate. Our results overwhelmingly depict increasing potential fire probabilities across the conterminous US for both climate scenarios. The primary mechanism for the projected increases is rising temperatures, reflecting changes in the chemical reaction environment commensurate with enhanced photosynthetic rates and available thermal molecular energy. Existing high risk areas, such as the Cascade Range and the Coastal California Mountains, are projected to experience greater annual fire occurrence probabilities, with relative increases of 122% and 67%, respectively, under RCP 8.5 compared to increases of 63% and 38% under RCP 4.5. Regions not currently associated with frequently occurring wildfires, such as New England and the Great Lakes, are projected to experience a doubling of occurrence probabilities by 2100 under RCP 8.5. This high resolution, continental-scale modeling study of climate change impacts on potential fire probability accounts for shifting background environmental conditions across regions that will interact with topographic drivers to significantly alter future fire probabilities. The ensemble modeling approach presents a useful planning tool for mitigation and adaptation strategies in regions of increasing wildfire risk.}, journal={SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT}, author={Gao, Peng and Terando, Adam J. and Kupfer, John A. and Varner, J. Morgan and Stambaugh, Michael C. and Lei, Ting L. and Hiers, J. Kevin}, year={2021}, month={Oct} }
 @article{louthan_walters_terando_garcia_morris_2021, title={Shifting correlations among multiple aspects of weather complicate predicting future demography of a threatened species}, volume={12}, ISSN={["2150-8925"]}, DOI={10.1002/ecs2.3740}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={9}, journal={ECOSPHERE}, author={Louthan, Allison M. and Walters, Jeffrey R. and Terando, Adam J. and Garcia, Victoria and Morris, William F.}, year={2021}, month={Sep} }
 @article{kupfer_terando_gao_teske_hiers_2020, title={Climate change projected to reduce prescribed burning opportunities in the south-eastern United States}, volume={29}, ISSN={["1448-5516"]}, DOI={10.1071/WF19198}, abstractNote={
Prescribed burning is a critical tool for managing wildfire risks and meeting ecological objectives, but its safe and effective application requires that specific meteorological criteria (a ‘burn window’) are met. Here, we evaluate the potential impacts of projected climatic change on prescribed burning in the south-eastern United States by applying a set of burn window criteria that capture temperature, relative humidity and wind speed to projections from an ensemble of Global Climate Models under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Regionally, the percentage of suitable days for burning changes little during winter but decreases substantially in summer owing to rising temperatures by the end of the 21st century compared with historical conditions. Management implications of such changes for six representative land management units include seasonal shifts in burning opportunities from summer to cool-season months, but with considerable regional variation. We contend that the practical constraints of rising temperatures on prescribed fire activities represent a significant future challenge and show that even meeting basic burn criteria (as defined today) will become increasingly difficult over time, which speaks to the need for adaptive management strategies to prepare for such changes.
}, number={9}, journal={INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WILDLAND FIRE}, author={Kupfer, John A. and Terando, Adam J. and Gao, Peng and Teske, Casey and Hiers, J. Kevin}, year={2020}, pages={764–778} }
 @article{clement_nichols_collazo_terando_hines_williams_2019, title={Partitioning global change: Assessing the relative importance of changes in climate and land cover for changes in avian distribution}, volume={9}, ISBN={2045-7758}, url={https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.4890}, DOI={10.1002/ece3.4890}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={4}, journal={ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Clement, Matthew J. and Nichols, James D. and Collazo, Jaime A. and Terando, Adam J. and Hines, James E. and Williams, Steven G.}, year={2019}, month={Feb}, pages={1985–2003} }
 @article{collazo_terando_engman_fackler_kwak_2019, title={Toward a Resilience-Based Conservation Strategy for Wetlands in Puerto Rico: Meeting Challenges Posed by Environmental Change}, volume={39}, ISSN={["1943-6246"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.1007/s13157-018-1080-z}, DOI={10.1007/s13157-018-1080-z}, number={6}, journal={WETLANDS}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Collazo, Jaime A. and Terando, Adam J. and Engman, Augustin C. and Fackler, Paul F. and Kwak, Thomas J.}, year={2019}, month={Dec}, pages={1255–1269} }
 @article{terando_prado_youngsteadt_2018, title={Construction of a Compact Low-Cost Radiation Shield for Air-Temperature Sensors in Ecological Field Studies}, ISSN={["1940-087X"]}, DOI={10.3791/58273}, abstractNote={Low cost temperature sensors are increasingly used by ecologists to assess climatic variation and change on ecologically relevant scales. Although cost-effective, if not deployed with proper solar radiation shielding, the observations recorded from these sensors will be biased and inaccurate. Manufactured radiation shields are effective at minimizing this bias, but are expensive compared to the cost of these sensors. Here, we provide a detailed methodology for constructing a compact version of a previously described custom fabricated radiation shield, which is more accurate than other published shielding methods that attempt to minimize shield size or construction costs. The method requires very little material: corrugated plastic sheets, aluminum foil duct tape, and cable ties. One 15 cm and two 10 cm squares of corrugated plastic are used for each shield. After cutting, scoring, taping and stapling of the sheets, the 10 cm squares form the bottom two layers of the solar radiation shield, while the 15 cm square forms the top layer. The three sheets are held together with cable ties. This compact solar radiation shield can be suspended, or placed against any flat surface. Care must be taken to ensure that the shield is completely parallel to the ground to prevent direct solar radiation from reaching the sensor, possibly causing increased warm biases in sun-exposed sites in the morning and afternoon relative to the original, larger design. Even so, differences in recorded temperatures between the smaller, compact shield design and the original design were small (mean daytime bias = 0.06 °C). Construction costs are less than half of the original shield design, and the new design results in a less conspicuous instrument that may be advantageous in many field ecology settings.}, number={141}, journal={JOVE-JOURNAL OF VISUALIZED EXPERIMENTS}, author={Terando, Adam J. and Prado, Sara G. and Youngsteadt, Elsa}, year={2018}, month={Nov} }
 @article{bhardwaj_misra_mishra_wootten_boyles_bowden_terando_2018, title={Downscaling future climate change projections over Puerto Rico using a non-hydrostatic atmospheric model}, volume={147}, ISSN={["1573-1480"]}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2130-x}, DOI={10.1007/s10584-017-2130-x}, number={1-2}, journal={CLIMATIC CHANGE}, author={Bhardwaj, Amit and Misra, Vasubandhu and Mishra, Akhilesh and Wootten, Adrienne and Boyles, Ryan and Bowden, J. H. and Terando, Adam J.}, year={2018}, month={Mar}, pages={133–147} }
 @article{wootten_terando_reich_boyles_semazzi_2017, title={Characterizing Sources of Uncertainty from Global Climate Models and Downscaling Techniques}, volume={56}, ISSN={["1558-8432"]}, DOI={10.1175/jamc-d-17-0087.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={12}, journal={JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY}, author={Wootten, A. and Terando, A. and Reich, B. J. and Boyles, R. P. and Semazzi, F.}, year={2017}, month={Dec}, pages={3245–3262} }
 @misc{schwartz_hiers_davis_garfin_jackson_terando_woodhouse_morelli_williamson_brunson_2017, title={Developing a translational ecology workforce}, volume={15}, ISSN={["1540-9309"]}, DOI={10.1002/fee.1732}, abstractNote={We define a translational ecologist as a professional ecologist with diverse disciplinary expertise and skill sets, as well as a suitable personal disposition, who engages across social, professional, and disciplinary boundaries to partner with decision makers to achieve practical environmental solutions. Becoming a translational ecologist requires specific attention to obtaining critical non‐scientific disciplinary breadth and skills that are not typically gained through graduate‐level education. Here, we outline a need for individuals with broad training in interdisciplinary skills, use our personal experiences as a basis for assessing the types of interdisciplinary skills that would benefit potential translational ecologists, and present steps that interested ecologists may take toward becoming translational. Skills relevant to translational ecologists may be garnered through personal experiences, informal training, short courses, fellowships, and graduate programs, among others. We argue that a translational ecology workforce is needed to bridge the gap between science and natural resource decisions. Furthermore, we argue that this task is a cooperative responsibility of individuals interested in pursuing these careers, educational institutions interested in training scientists for professional roles outside of academia, and employers seeking to hire skilled workers who can foster stakeholder‐engaged decision making.}, number={10}, journal={FRONTIERS IN ECOLOGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT}, author={Schwartz, Mark W. and Hiers, J. Kevin and Davis, Frank W. and Garfin, Gregg M. and Jackson, Stephen T. and Terando, Adam J. and Woodhouse, Connie A. and Morelli, Toni Lyn and Williamson, Matthew A. and Brunson, Mark W.}, year={2017}, month={Dec}, pages={587–596} }
 @inbook{terando_reich_pacifici_costanza_mckerrow_collazo_2017, title={Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation for Projections of Extremes in Monthly Area Burned Under Climate Change: A Case Study in the Coastal Plain of Georgia, USA}, volume={223}, ISBN={0}, ISSN={2328-8779}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781119028116.ch16}, DOI={10.1002/9781119028116.ch16}, abstractNote={Human-caused climate change is predicted to affect the frequency of hazard-linked extremes. Unusually large wildfires are a type of extreme event that is constrained by climate and can be a hazard to society but also an important ecological disturbance. This chapter focuses on changes in the frequency of extreme monthly area burned by wildfires for the end of the 21st century for a wildfire-prone region in the southeast United States. Predicting changes in area burned is complicated by the large and varied uncertainties in how the climate will change and in the models used to predict those changes. The chapter characterizes and quantifies multiple sources of uncertainty and propagate the expanded prediction intervals of future area burned. It illustrates that while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty in global change science problems is a difficult task, it will be necessary in order to properly assess the risk of increased exposure to these society-relevant events.}, booktitle={NATURAL HAZARD UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT: MODELING AND DECISION SUPPORT}, publisher={John Wiley & Sons, Inc.}, author={Terando, Adam J. and Reich, Brian and Pacifici, Krishna and Costanza, Jennifer and McKerrow, Alexa and Collazo, Jaime A.}, year={2017}, pages={245–256} }
 @article{youngsteadt_dale_terando_dunn_frank_2015, title={Do cities simulate climate change? A comparison of herbivore response to urban and global warming}, volume={21}, ISSN={["1365-2486"]}, url={http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-84916930773&partnerID=MN8TOARS}, DOI={10.1111/gcb.12692}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={1}, journal={GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY}, author={Youngsteadt, Elsa and Dale, Adam G. and Terando, Adam J. and Dunn, Robert R. and Frank, Steven D.}, year={2015}, month={Jan}, pages={97–105} }
 @article{costanza_terando_mckerrow_collazo_2015, title={Modeling climate change, urbanization, and fire effects on Pinus palustris ecosystems of the southeastern U.S.}, volume={151}, ISSN={0301-4797}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.12.032}, DOI={10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.12.032}, abstractNote={Managing ecosystems for resilience and sustainability requires understanding how they will respond to future anthropogenic drivers such as climate change and urbanization. In fire-dependent ecosystems, predicting this response requires a focus on how these drivers will impact fire regimes. Here, we use scenarios of climate change, urbanization and management to simulate the future dynamics of the critically endangered and fire-dependent longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) ecosystem. We investigated how climate change and urbanization will affect the ecosystem, and whether the two conservation goals of a 135% increase in total longleaf area and a doubling of fire-maintained open-canopy habitat can be achieved in the face of these drivers. Our results show that while climatic warming had little effect on the wildfire regime, and thus on longleaf pine dynamics, urban growth led to an 8% reduction in annual wildfire area. The management scenarios we tested increase the ecosystem's total extent by up to 62% and result in expansion of open-canopy longleaf by as much as 216%, meeting one of the two conservation goals for the ecosystem. We find that both conservation goals for this ecosystem, which is climate-resilient but vulnerable to urbanization, are only attainable if a greater focus is placed on restoration of non-longleaf areas as opposed to maintaining existing longleaf stands. Our approach demonstrates the importance of accounting for multiple relevant anthropogenic threats in an ecosystem-specific context in order to facilitate more effective management actions.}, journal={Journal of Environmental Management}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Costanza, Jennifer K. and Terando, Adam J. and McKerrow, Alexa J. and Collazo, Jaime A.}, year={2015}, month={Mar}, pages={186–199} }
 @article{terando_costanza_belyea_dunn_mckerrow_collazo_2014, title={The Southern Megalopolis: Using the Past to Predict the Future of Urban Sprawl in the Southeast U.S}, volume={9}, ISSN={1932-6203}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0102261}, DOI={10.1371/journal.pone.0102261}, abstractNote={The future health of ecosystems is arguably as dependent on urban sprawl as it is on human-caused climatic warming. Urban sprawl strongly impacts the urban ecosystems it creates and the natural and agro-ecosystems that it displaces and fragments. Here, we project urban sprawl changes for the next 50 years for the fast-growing Southeast U.S. Previous studies have focused on modeling population density, but the urban extent is arguably as important as population density per se in terms of its ecological and conservation impacts. We develop simulations using the SLEUTH urban growth model that complement population-driven models but focus on spatial pattern and extent. To better capture the reach of low-density suburban development, we extend the capabilities of SLEUTH by incorporating street-network information. Our simulations point to a future in which the extent of urbanization in the Southeast is projected to increase by 101% to 192%. Our results highlight areas where ecosystem fragmentation is likely, and serve as a benchmark to explore the challenging tradeoffs between ecosystem health, economic growth and cultural desires.}, number={7}, journal={PLoS ONE}, publisher={Public Library of Science (PLoS)}, author={Terando, Adam J. and Costanza, Jennifer and Belyea, Curtis and Dunn, Robert R. and McKerrow, Alexa and Collazo, Jaime A.}, editor={Layman, Craig A.Editor}, year={2014}, month={Jul}, pages={e102261} }
 @article{terando_keller_easterling_2012, title={Probabilistic projections of agro-climate indices in North America}, volume={117}, ISSN={["2169-8996"]}, DOI={10.1029/2012jd017436}, abstractNote={We develop probabilistic projections for three agro‐climate indices (frost days, thermal time, and a heat stress index) for North America. The selected indices are important for understanding the potential impacts of future anthropogenic climate change on agricultural production. We use Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and bootstrapping to quantify the structural uncertainty in an ensemble of downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs). The prior information contained in the observations and model hindcasts is used to construct physically meaningful temporal comparisons for the period 1961–2010. The comparisons are used to derive model‐specific posterior weights to construct probabilistic projections of agro‐climate change in the 21st century. A cross validation test covering the most recent 25 years of the observation period indicates considerable overconfidence in the projections when using the calibrated BMA approach. In contrast the probabilistic projections using equally weighted climate models are not overconfident. The strong consensus among the probabilistic projections that shows warming effects for all three agro‐climate indices is tempered by the short 50‐year calibration period and the small ensemble size. The short calibration period provides a relatively poor observational constraint on estimates of model weights and predictive variance, while the small ensemble size limits the climate sample space. However, the consensus that emerges in spite of the large uncertainties suggests large potential changes in the conditions that farmers will experience over the remainder of the 21st century. Of particular concern is the projected increase in the heat stress index which could lead to large crop damages and associated yield declines.}, journal={JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES}, author={Terando, Adam and Keller, Klaus and Easterling, William E.}, year={2012}, month={Apr} }
 @article{bhat_haran_terando_keller_2011, title={Climate Projections Using Bayesian Model Averaging and Space-Time Dependence}, volume={16}, ISSN={["1537-2693"]}, DOI={10.1007/s13253-011-0069-3}, number={4}, journal={JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL BIOLOGICAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL STATISTICS}, author={Bhat, K. Sham and Haran, Murali and Terando, Adam and Keller, Klaus}, year={2011}, month={Dec}, pages={606–628} }
 @article{cook_terando_steiner_2010, title={Ecological forecasting under climatic data uncertainty: a case study in phenological modeling}, volume={5}, ISSN={["1748-9326"]}, DOI={10.1088/1748-9326/5/4/044014}, abstractNote={Forecasting ecological responses to climate change represents a challenge to the ecological community because models are often site-specific and climate data are lacking at appropriate spatial and temporal resolutions. We use a case study approach to demonstrate uncertainties in ecological predictions related to the driving climatic input data. We use observational records, derived observational datasets (e.g. interpolated observations from local weather stations and gridded data products) and output from general circulation models (GCM) in conjunction with site based phenology models to estimate the first flowering date (FFD) for three woody flowering species. Using derived observations over the modern time period, we find that cold biases and temperature trends lead to biased FFD simulations for all three species. Observational datasets resolved at the daily time step result in better FFD predictions compared to simulations using monthly resolution. Simulations using output from an ensemble of GCM and regional climate models over modern and future time periods have large intra-ensemble spreads and tend to underestimate observed FFD trends for the modern period. These results indicate that certain forcing datasets may be missing key features needed to generate accurate hindcasts at the local scale (e.g. trends, temporal resolution), and that standard modeling techniques (e.g. downscaling, ensemble mean, etc) may not necessarily improve the prediction of the ecological response. Studies attempting to simulate local ecological processes under modern and future climate forcing therefore need to quantify and propagate the climate data uncertainties in their simulations.}, number={4}, journal={ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS}, author={Cook, Benjamin I. and Terando, Adam and Steiner, Allison}, year={2010} }
 @article{chhetri_easterling_terando_mearns_2010, title={Modeling Path Dependence in Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change}, volume={100}, ISSN={["1467-8306"]}, DOI={10.1080/00045608.2010.500547}, abstractNote={Path dependence of farmers’ technical choices for managing climate risk combined with farmers’ difficulties in discerning climate change from natural variability might hamper adaptation to climate change. We examine the effects of climate variability and change on corn yields in the Southeast United States using a regional climate model nested within a global climate model (GCM) simulation of the equilibrium atmospheric CO2 concentration of 540 ppm. In addition to a climate scenario with normal variance, we modify the GCM outputs to simulate a scenario with a highly variable climate. We find that climate variability poses a serious challenge to the abilities of farmers and their supporting institutions to adapt. Consistently lower corn yields, especially in the scenario with a highly variable climate, illustrate that farmers’ abilities to make informed choices about their cropping decisions can be constrained by their inabilities to exit from their current technological regimes or path dependence. We also incorporate farmers’ responses to climate change using three adaptation scenarios: no adaptation, “perfect knowledge,” and a scenario that mimics diffusion of knowledge across the landscape. Regardless of adaptation scenario and variance structure, the most common result is a decline in corn production to the point where yield reductions of 1 percent to 20 percent occur across 60 percent to 80 percent of the region. The advantage of the perfect knowledge adaptation scenario declines through time compared to the diffusion-process adaptation scenario. We posit that the cost of path dependence to farmers, in the form of yield reductions, is likely unavoidable because the inherent variability of the climate system will result in adaptation choices that will be suboptimal for some years.}, number={4}, journal={ANNALS OF THE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICAN GEOGRAPHERS}, author={Chhetri, Netra B. and Easterling, William E. and Terando, Adam and Mearns, Linda}, year={2010}, pages={894–907} }