Alun L Lloyd

A simple model for viral decay dynamics and the distribution of infected cell life spans in SHIV-infected infant rhesus macaques

MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES, 356.

A critical assessment of the detailed Aedes aegypti simulation model Skeeter Buster 2 using field experiments of indoor insecticidal control in Iquitos, Peru

PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases.

Extensions of mean-field approximations for environmentally-transmitted pathogen networks

MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES AND ENGINEERING, 20(2), 1637–1673.

Geographic disparities and predictors of COVID-19 hospitalization risks in the St. Louis Area, Missouri (USA)

BMC PUBLIC HEALTH, 22(1).

Modeling a Pandemic: Predicting the Future

Lloyd, A. (2022, June 22).

Models: What Are They and Should We Believe Them?

Lloyd, A. (2022, June 22).

A critical assessment of the detailed Aedes aegypti simulation model Skeeter Buster 2 using field experiments of indoor insecticidal control in Iquitos, Peru

Gunning, C. E., Morrison, A. C., Okamoto, K. W., Scott, T. W., Astete, H., Vasquez, G. M., … Lloyd, A. L. (2021, October 4). (Vol. 10). Vol. 10.

Bidirectional contact tracing could dramatically improve COVID-19 control

NATURE COMMUNICATIONS, 12(1).

Disease-driven reduction in human mobility influences human-mosquito contacts and dengue transmission dynamics

PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY, 17(1).

Embracing Dynamic Models for Gene Drive Management

Golnar, A. J., Ruell, E., Lloyd, A. L., & Pepin, K. M. (2021, March). TRENDS IN BIOTECHNOLOGY, Vol. 39, pp. 211–214.

Mathematical modeling of genetic pest management through female-specific lethality: Is one locus better than two?

EVOLUTIONARY APPLICATIONS, 14(6), 1612–1622.

Population genomics of invasive rodents on islands: Genetic consequences of colonization and prospects for localized synthetic gene drive

EVOLUTIONARY APPLICATIONS, 14(5), 1421–1435.

Rapid evolution of knockdown resistance haplotypes in response to pyrethroid selection in Aedes aegypti

Baltzegar, J., Vella, M., Gunning, C., Vasquez, G., Astete, H., Stell, F., … Gould, F. (2021, July 9). EVOLUTIONARY APPLICATIONS, Vol. 7.

The feasibility of targeted test-trace-isolate for the control of SARS-CoV-2 variants

Bradshaw, W. J., Huggins, J. H., Lloyd, A. L., & Esvelt, K. M. (2021, January 13). (Vol. 1). Vol. 1.

After the honeymoon, the divorce: Unexpected outcomes of disease control measures against endemic infections

PLOS Computational Biology, 16(10), e1008292.

Bidirectional contact tracing dramatically improves COVID-19 control

Bradshaw, W. J., Alley, E. C., Huggins, J. H., Lloyd, A. L., & Esvelt, K. M. (2020, May 10). (Vol. 5). Vol. 5.

COVID-19 control across urban-rural gradients

Wells, K., Lurgi, M., Collins, B., Lucini, B., Kao, R. R., Lloyd, A. L., … Gravenor, M. B. (2020, September 9). (Vol. 9). Vol. 9.

Disease control across urban–rural gradients

Journal of The Royal Society Interface, 17(173), 20200775.

Efficacy and Spatial Extent of Yard-Scale Control of Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) Using Barrier Sprays and Larval Habitat Management

J. Med. Entomol., 57, 1104–1110.

Gene Drive Dynamics in Natural Populations: The Importance of Density Dependence, Space, and Sex

ANNUAL REVIEW OF ECOLOGY, EVOLUTION, AND SYSTEMATICS, VOL 51, 2020, Vol. 51, pp. 505–531.

Key questions for modelling COVID-19 exit strategies

Optimizing the deployment of ultra-low volume and targeted indoor residual spraying for dengue outbreak response

PLOS Computational Biology, 16(4), e1007743.

The basic reproductive number for disease systems with multiple coupled heterogeneities

Mathematical Biosciences, 220004.

After the honeymoon, the divorce: unexpected outcomes of disease control measures against endemic infections

Hollingsworth, B., Okamoto, K. W., & Lloyd, A. L. (2019, April 19). (Vol. 4). Vol. 4.

Locally Fixed Alleles: A method to localize gene drive to island populations

SCIENTIFIC REPORTS, 9.

Optimizing the deployment of ultra-low volume and indoor residual spraying for dengue outbreak response

Cavany, S. M., España, G., Lloyd, A. L., Waller, L. A., Kitron, U., Astete, H., … Perkins, T. A. (2019, October 2).

Pest management by genetic addiction

Gould, F., Dhole, S., & Lloyd, A. L. (2019, March 26). PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, Vol. 116, pp. 5849–5851.

Rodent gene drives for conservation: opportunities and data needs

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 286(1914), 20191606.

Tethered homing gene drives: A new design for spatially restricted population replacement and suppression

EVOLUTIONARY APPLICATIONS, 12(8), 1688–1702.

An approach to periodic, time-varying parameter estimation using nonlinear filtering

Inverse Problems, 34(10), 105005.

Contributions from the silent majority dominate dengue virus transmission

PLOS Pathogens, 14(5), e1006965.

Contributions from the silent majority dominate dengue virus transmission

PLOS Pathogens, 14(5), e1006965.

Efficacy of Aedes aegypti control by indoor Ultra Low Volume (ULV) insecticide spraying in Iquitos, Peru

PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 12(4), e0006378.

Efficacy of Aedes aegypti control by indoor Ultra Low Volume (ULV) insecticide spraying in Iquitos, Peru

PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 12(4), e0006378.

Invasion and migration of spatially self-limiting gene drives: A comparative analysis

Evolutionary Applications, 11(5), 794–808.

Adaptive filtering for hidden node detection and tracking in networks

Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 27(7), 073106.

Dynamical behavior of an epidemiological model with a demographic Allee effect

Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 133, 311–325.

Evaluating strategies for reversing CRISPR-Cas9 gene drives

Scientific Reports, 7(1).

Evaluating strategies for reversing CRISPR-Cas9 gene drives

Vella, M. R., Gunning, C. E., Lloyd, A. L., & Gould, F. (2017, May 30). Scientific Reports, Vol. 5, p. 11038.

Hybrid modeling and prediction of dynamical systems

PLOS Computational Biology, 13(7), e1005655.

Plasmodium knowlesi invasion following spread by infected mosquitoes, macaques and humans

Parasitology, 145(1), 101–110.

Comparison of two detailed models of Aedes aegypti population dynamics

Ecosphere, 7(10), e01515.

Computational model of the fathead minnow hypothalamic–pituitary–gonadal axis: Incorporating protein synthesis in improving predictability of responses to endocrine active chemicals

Comparative Biochemistry and Physiology Part C: Toxicology & Pharmacology, 183-184, 36–45.

Coupled Heterogeneities and Their Impact on Parasite Transmission and Control

Trends in Parasitology, 32(5), 356–367.

Coupled heterogeneities and their impact on parasite transmission and control

Trends in Parasitology, 32(5), 356–367.

Integrating Transgenic Vector Manipulation with Clinical Interventions to Manage Vector-Borne Diseases

PLOS Computational Biology, 12(3), e1004695.

On the Seasonal Occurrence and Abundance of the Zika Virus Vector Mosquito Aedes Aegypti in the Contiguous United States

PLoS Currents.

Five challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission

EPIDEMICS, 10, 54–57.

Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health

Science, 347(6227), aaa4339.

Nine challenges for deterministic epidemic models

Epidemics, 10, 49–53.

Seven challenges for model-driven data collection in experimental and observational studies

Epidemics, 10, 78–82.

Seven challenges for modelling indirect transmission: Vector-borne diseases, macroparasites and neglected tropical diseases

Epidemics, 10, 16–20.

A global assembly of adult female mosquito mark-release-recapture data to inform the control of mosquito-borne pathogens

Parasites & Vectors, 7(1), 276.

A global assembly of adult female mosquito mark-release-recapture data to inform the control of mosquito-borne pathogens

Parasit Vectors, 7(1), 276.

Antipathogen genes and the replacement of disease-vectoring mosquito populations: a model-based evaluation

Evolutionary Applications, 7(10), 1238–1251.

Feasible Introgression of an Anti-pathogen Transgene into an Urban Mosquito Population without Using Gene-Drive

PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES, 8(7).

Optimal two-phase vaccine allocation to geographically different regions under uncertainty

EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH, 233(1), 208–219.

Recasting the theory of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control

Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 108(4), 185–197.

Recasting the theory of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control

Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 108(4), 185–197.

Time-varying, serotype-specific force of infection of dengue virus

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(26), E2694–E2702.

Time-varying, serotype-specific force of infection of dengue virus

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(26), E2694–E2702.

Weak Convergence of a Seasonally Forced Stochastic Epidemic Model

ArXiv Preprint ArXiv:1412.0964.

A Reduce and Replace Strategy for Suppressing Vector-Borne Diseases: Insights from a Deterministic Model

PLOS ONE, 8(9).

A Reduce and Replace Strategy for Suppressing Vector-Borne Diseases: Insights from a Stochastic, Spatial Model

PLOS ONE, 8(12).

A systematic review of mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission: 1970-2010

[Review of ]. JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY INTERFACE, 10(81).

Developing Predictive Approaches to Characterize Adaptive Responses of the Reproductive Endocrine Axis to Aromatase Inhibition: II. Computational Modeling

TOXICOLOGICAL SCIENCES, 133(2), 234–247.

Developing predictive approaches to characterize adaptive responses of the reproductive endocrine axis to aromatase inhibition: II. Computational modeling

Toxicological Sciences, 133(2), 234–247.

Developmental timing of mutations revealed by whole-genome sequencing of twins with acute lymphoblastic leukemia

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 110(18), 7429–7433.

Field Cage Studies and Progressive Evaluation of Genetically-Engineered Mosquitoes

PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES, 7(1).

Modeling the Dynamics of a Non-Limited and a Self-Limited Gene Drive System in Structured Aedes aegypti Populations

PLoS ONE, 8(12), e83354.

Regulation of Aedes aegypti Population Dynamics in Field Systems: Quantifying Direct and Delayed Density Dependence

The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 89(1), 68–77.

Viral Substitution Rate Variation Can Arise from the Interplay between Within-Host and Epidemiological Dynamics

AMERICAN NATURALIST, 182(4), 494–513.

Assessing the Feasibility of Controlling Aedes aegypti with Transgenic Methods: A Model-Based Evaluation

PLoS ONE, 7(12), e52235.

Graph fission in an evolving voter model

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 109(10), 3682–3687.

Mathematical Models as Aids for Design and Development of Experiments: The Case of Transgenic Mosquitoes

Journal of Medical Entomology, 49(6), 1177–1188.

PARAMETER ESTIMATION AND UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION FOR AN EPIDEMIC MODEL

MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES AND ENGINEERING, 9(3), 553–576.

Evaluation of Location-Specific Predictions by a Detailed Simulation Model of Aedes aegypti Populations

PLoS ONE, 6(7), e22701.

Mechanistic Computational Model of Steroidogenesis in H295R Cells: Role of Oxysterols and Cell Proliferation to Improve Predictability of Biochemical Response to Endocrine Active Chemical-Metyrapone

TOXICOLOGICAL SCIENCES, 123(1), 80–93.

Mechanistic computational model of steroidogenesis in H295R cells: role of oxysterols and cell proliferation to improve predictability of biochemical response to endocrine active chemical—metyrapone

Toxicological Sciences, 123(1), 80–93.

The wMel Wolbachia strain blocks dengue and invades caged Aedes aegypti populations

NATURE, 476(7361), 450–U101.

The wMel Wolbachia strain blocks dengue and invades caged Aedes aegypti populations

Nature, 476(7361), 450.

Gene-drive into insect populations with age and spatial structure: a theoretical assessment

Evolutionary Applications, 4(3), 415–428.

Medea selfish genetic elements as tools for altering traits of wild populations: A theoretical analysis.

Evolution, 65(4), 1149–1162.

Quantitative Models for Germination and Infection of Pseudoperonospora cubensis in Response to Temperature and Duration of Leaf Wetness

PHYTOPATHOLOGY, 100(9), 959–967.

Resolving the impact of waiting time distributions on the persistence of measles

Journal of The Royal Society Interface, 7(45), 623–640.

Understanding Uncertainties in Model-Based Predictions of Aedes aegypti Population Dynamics

PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 4(9), e830.

A sensitivity matrix based methodology for inverse problem formulation

JOURNAL OF INVERSE AND ILL-POSED PROBLEMS, 17(6), 545–564.

Density-Dependent Intraspecific Competition in the Larval Stage of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae): Revisiting the Current Paradigm

JOURNAL OF MEDICAL ENTOMOLOGY, 46(3), 409–419.

Gene-drive in age-structured insect populations

Evolutionary Applications, 2(2), 143–159.

Gene-drive in age-structured insect populations

Evolutionary Applications, 2(2), 143–159.

Sensitivity of Model-Based Epidemiological Parameter Estimation to Model Assumptions

In Mathematical and Statistical Estimation Approaches in Epidemiology (pp. 123–141).

Skeeter Buster: A Stochastic, Spatially Explicit Modeling Tool for Studying Aedes aegypti Population Replacement and Population Suppression Strategies

PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 3(9), e508.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of measles

In Spatial Ecology (pp. 251–272).

Spatiotemporal dynamics of measles: synchrony and persistence in a disease metapopulation

Spatial Ecology, pp. 251–272.

THE ESTIMATION OF THE EFFECTIVE REPRODUCTIVE NUMBER FROM DISEASE OUTBREAK DATA

MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES AND ENGINEERING, 6(2), 261–282.

The geographic spread of infectious diseases: models and applications

In Princeton University Press. Princeton University Press.

A Killer-Rescue system for self-limiting gene drive of anti-pathogen constructs

PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, 275(1653), 2823–2829.

Introducing desirable transgenes into insect populations using Y-linked meiotic drive - A theoretical assessment

EVOLUTION, 61(4), 717–726.

Introducing transgenes into insect populations using combined gene-drive strategies: Modeling and analysis

INSECT BIOCHEMISTRY AND MOLECULAR BIOLOGY, 37(10), 1054–1063.

Network models in epidemiology: an overview

In Complex Population Dynamics (pp. 189–214).

Stochastic and deterministic models for agricultural production networks

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 4(3), 373–402.

Stochasticity and heterogeneity in host-vector models

JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY INTERFACE, 4(16), 851–863.

Book Review

Journal of Difference Equations and Applications, 12(5), 501–502.

Drug resistance in acute viral infections: Rhinovirus as a case study

In Disease Evolution (pp. 193–212).

Infection dynamics on small-world networks

Infection dynamics on small-world networks

In Contemporary Mathematics (Vol. 410, pp. 209–234).

Estimating variability in models for recurrent epidemics: assessing the use of moment closure techniques

THEORETICAL POPULATION BIOLOGY, 65(1), 49–65.

Estimating variability in models for recurrent epidemics: assessing the use of moment closure techniques

Theoretical Population Biology, 65(1), 49–65.

Immune responses and the emergence of drug-resistant virus strains in vivo

PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, 271(1544), 1101–1109.

Polymorphism in the interleukin-10 promoter affects both provirus load and the risk of human T lymphotropic virus type I-associated myelopathy/tropical spastic paraparesis

JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES, 190(7), 1279–1285.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of epidemics: synchrony in metapopulation models

MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES, Vol. 188, pp. 1–16.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of epidemics: synchrony in metapopulation models

Mathematical Biosciences, 188(1-2), 1–16.

A Model for Estimating Total Parasite Load in Falciparum Malaria Patients

Journal of Theoretical Biology, 217(2), 137–148.

Polygenic control of human T lymphotropic virus type I (HTLV-I) provirus load and the risk of HTLV-I-associated myelopathy/tropical spastic paraparesis

JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES, 186(7), 932–939.

Destabilization of epidemic models with the inclusion of realistic distributions of infectious periods

Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences, 268(1470), 985–993.

Epidemiology: How Viruses Spread Among Computers and People

Science, 292(5520), 1316–1317.