Works (166)

Updated: June 3rd, 2024 08:14

2024 article

Economic optimization of <i>Wolbachia</i>-infected <i>Aedes aegypti</i> release to prevent dengue

Hollingsworth, B. D., Cho, C., Vella, M., Roh, H., Sass, J., Lloyd, A. L., & Brown, Z. S. (2024, April 3). PEST MANAGEMENT SCIENCE, Vol. 4.

By: B. Hollingsworth n, C. Cho n, M. Vella n, H. Roh n, J. Sass n, A. Lloyd n, Z. Brown n

author keywords: Wolbachia; Aedes aegypti; optimal control
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being (OpenAlex)
Sources: Web Of Science, NC State University Libraries, ORCID
Added: April 15, 2024

2024 journal article

Geographic disparities and predictors of COVID-19 vaccination in Missouri: a retrospective ecological study

FRONTIERS IN PUBLIC HEALTH, 12.

By: A. Lacy*, M. Khan*, N. Nath*, P. Das n, M. Igoe*, S. Lenhart*, A. Lloyd n, C. Lanzas n, A. Odoi*

author keywords: COVID-19; Missouri; spatial epidemiology; epidemiology; geographic disparities; predictors; vaccination
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
1. No Poverty (OpenAlex)
Sources: Web Of Science, NC State University Libraries
Added: April 8, 2024

2024 journal article

Modeling county level COVID-19 transmission in the greater St. Louis area: Challenges of uncertainty and identifiability when fitting mechanistic models to time-varying processes

MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES, 371.

By: P. Das n, M. Igoe*, A. Lacy*, T. Farthing n, A. Timsina n, C. Lanzas n, S. Lenhart*, A. Odoi*, A. Lloyd n

author keywords: COVID-19; ODE models; Parameter estimation; Uncertainty quantification; Identifiability
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being (OpenAlex)
Sources: Web Of Science, NC State University Libraries
Added: May 28, 2024

2023 journal article

A simple model for viral decay dynamics and the distribution of infected cell life spans in SHIV-infected infant rhesus macaques

MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES, 356.

By: J. Sass n, A. Awasthi*, V. Obregon-Perko*, J. McCarthy*, A. Lloyd n, A. Chahroudi*, S. Permar*, C. Chan*

author keywords: Modified Gompertz model; HIV viral decay; SHIV; Stochastic modeling; Infected cell lifespan; Uncertainty quantification
MeSH headings : Animals; Macaca mulatta; HIV Infections; Simian Immunodeficiency Virus; HIV-1; Longevity; Viral Load
TL;DR: The Gompertz model is modified to include a linear term that modulates the decay rate, and it is found that the dynamics of viral decay in this model of infant HIV infection and treatment may be explained by a distribution of cell lifespans, rather than two distinct cell types. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
Sources: Web Of Science, NC State University Libraries
Added: February 27, 2023

2023 journal article

CRISPR/Cas9-based split homing gene drive targeting <i>doublesex for population suppression of the global fruit pest <i>Drosophila suzukii

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 120(25).

By: A. Yadav n, C. Butler n, A. Yamamoto n, A. Patil n, A. Lloyd n & M. Scott n

author keywords: gene drive; CRISPR; Drosophila suzukii; spotted wing Drosophila; doublesex
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
Sources: Web Of Science, NC State University Libraries, ORCID, Crossref
Added: August 21, 2023

2023 journal article

Direct mosquito feedings on dengue-2 virus-infected people reveal dynamics of human infectiousness

PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES, 17(9).

By: L. Lambrechts*, R. Reiner*, M. Briesemeister*, P. Barrera*, K. Long*, W. Elson*, A. Vizcarra*, H. Astete* ...

TL;DR: It is concluded that mildly ill DENV-infected humans with similar levels of viremia during the first two days after symptom onset will be most infectious to mosquitoes on the second day of their illness. (via Semantic Scholar)
Sources: Web Of Science, NC State University Libraries
Added: October 16, 2023

2023 journal article

Fusing an agent-based model of mosquito population dynamics with a statistical reconstruction of spatio-temporal abundance patterns

PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY, 19(4).

By: S. Cavany*, G. Espana*, A. Lloyd n, G. Vazquez-Prokopec*, H. Astete*, L. Waller*, U. Kitron*, T. Scott* ...

MeSH headings : Animals; Mosquito Vectors / physiology; Population Dynamics; Zika Virus; Yellow fever virus; Chikungunya virus; Aedes; Zika Virus Infection; Dengue / epidemiology
TL;DR: An approach which fuses mechanistic realism and statistical flexibility into a single model that is able to accurately reproduce abundance patterns in Iquitos and produce a realistic response to adulticide spraying, while retaining sufficient flexibility to be applied across a range of settings is presented. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being (Web of Science; OpenAlex)
Sources: Web Of Science, NC State University Libraries
Added: May 30, 2023

2023 journal article

Inapparent infections shape the transmission heterogeneity of dengue

PNAS NEXUS, 2(3).

By: G. Vazquez-Prokopec*, A. Morrison*, V. Paz-Soldan*, S. Stoddard*, W. Koval*, L. Waller*, T. Perkins*, A. Lloyd n ...

author keywords: arbovirus; transmission heterogeneity; mobility; super-spreading
TL;DR: Marked heterogeneity in dengue case distribution, and the role of inapparent infections in defining it, highlight major challenges faced by reactive interventions if those transmission units contributing the most to transmission are not identified, prioritized, and effectively treated. (via Semantic Scholar)
Sources: Web Of Science, NC State University Libraries
Added: October 23, 2023

2023 review

Leveraging eco-evolutionary models for gene drive risk assessment

[Review of ]. TRENDS IN GENETICS, 39(8), 609–623.

By: M. Combs*, A. Golnar*, J. Overcash*, A. Lloyd n, K. Hayes*, . David A. O'Brochta*, K. Pepin*

TL;DR: This work synthesizes gene drive dynamic modeling studies to highlight research trends, knowledge gaps, and emergent principles, organized around their genetic, demographic, spatial, environmental, and implementation features. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
15. Life on Land (OpenAlex)
Sources: Web Of Science, NC State University Libraries
Added: August 14, 2023

2023 journal article

Modeling impact of vaccination on COVID-19 dynamics in St. Louis

JOURNAL OF BIOLOGICAL DYNAMICS, 17(1).

By: A. Lacy*, M. Igoe*, P. Das n, T. Farthing n, A. Lloyd n, C. Lanzas n, A. Odoi*, S. Lenhart*

author keywords: Modeling COVID-19 spread; St. Louis area; SafeGraph movement data; vaccination; differential equations
TL;DR: This work investigates how human mobility, vaccination, and time-varying transmission rates influenced SARS-CoV-2 transmission in five counties in the St. Louis area and predicted the changes in disease spread under scenarios with increased vaccination coverage. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being (OpenAlex)
Sources: Web Of Science, NC State University Libraries
Added: December 18, 2023

2023 journal article

Quantifying heterogeneities in arbovirus transmission: Description of the rationale and methodology for a prospective longitudinal study of dengue and Zika virus transmission in Iquitos, Peru (2014-2019)

PLOS ONE, 18(2).

By: A. Morrison*, V. Paz-Soldan*, G. Vazquez-Prokopec*, L. Lambrechts*, W. Elson*, P. Barrera*, H. Astete*, V. Briesemeister* ...

MeSH headings : Humans; Zika Virus; Longitudinal Studies; Dengue Virus; Dengue; Prospective Studies; Peru / epidemiology; Zika Virus Infection / epidemiology; Arboviruses
TL;DR: This manuscript provides the rationale and comprehensive, integrated description of the methodology for a five-year longitudinal cohort study based in the tropical city of Iquitos, in the heart of the Peruvian Amazon to better determine the type and extent of effort needed to better prevent virus transmission and disease. (via Semantic Scholar)
Sources: Web Of Science, NC State University Libraries
Added: May 15, 2023

2022 journal article

A critical assessment of the detailed Aedes aegypti simulation model Skeeter Buster 2 using field experiments of indoor insecticidal control in Iquitos, Peru

PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases.

Ed(s): L. Bartholomay

MeSH headings : Animals; Female; Humans; Insecticides / pharmacology; Aedes; Mosquito Vectors; Peru; Pilot Projects; Zika Virus Infection; Zika Virus; Dengue
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
11. Sustainable Cities and Communities (OpenAlex)
Source: ORCID
Added: December 23, 2022

2022 journal article

Extensions of mean-field approximations for environmentally-transmitted pathogen networks

MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES AND ENGINEERING, 20(2), 1637–1673.

By: K. Davies n, S. Lenhart*, J. Day*, A. Lloyd n & C. Lanzas n

author keywords: environmental transmission; moment closure approximations; mean-field models; network models; individual-based models; infectious disease
MeSH headings : Models, Biological; Environmental Microbiology; Communicable Diseases / transmission
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
Sources: Web Of Science, NC State University Libraries
Added: December 5, 2022

2022 journal article

Geographic disparities and determinants of COVID-19 incidence risk in the greater St. Louis Area, Missouri (United States)

PLOS ONE, 17(9).

By: P. Das n, M. Igoe*, S. Lenhart*, L. Luong*, C. Lanzas n, A. Lloyd n, A. Odoi*

MeSH headings : COVID-19 / epidemiology; COVID-19 Vaccines; Humans; Incidence; Missouri / epidemiology; Obesity; Socioeconomic Factors; United States
Sources: Web Of Science, NC State University Libraries
Added: April 4, 2023

2022 journal article

Geographic disparities and predictors of COVID-19 hospitalization risks in the St. Louis Area, Missouri (USA)

BMC PUBLIC HEALTH, 22(1).

By: M. Igoe*, P. Das n, S. Lenhart*, A. Lloyd n, L. Luong*, D. Tian*, C. Lanzas n, A. Odoi*

author keywords: Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2; SARS-CoV-2; Coronavirus Disease 2019; COVID-19; Disparities; Hospitalization Risks; Predictors; Negative Binomial Models; Geographically Weighted Regression Models; Epidemiology; Missouri
MeSH headings : COVID-19; Hospitalization; Humans; Missouri / epidemiology; Models, Statistical; SARS-CoV-2
TL;DR: Investigation of Zip Code Tabulation Area (ZCTA)-level geographic disparities and identify predictors of COVID-19 hospitalization risks in the St. Louis area found that a ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach may not be appropriate for management and control. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
4. Quality Education (Web of Science)
Sources: Web Of Science, NC State University Libraries
Added: March 7, 2022

2022 article

Modeling a Pandemic: Predicting the Future

Lloyd, A. (2022, June 22).

By: A. Lloyd n

UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being (OpenAlex)
Source: ORCID
Added: August 17, 2022

2022 article

Models: What Are They and Should We Believe Them?

Lloyd, A. (2022, June 22).

By: A. Lloyd n

UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being (OpenAlex)
Source: ORCID
Added: August 17, 2022

2021 article

A critical assessment of the detailed Aedes aegypti simulation model Skeeter Buster 2 using field experiments of indoor insecticidal control in Iquitos, Peru

Gunning, C. E., Morrison, A. C., Okamoto, K. W., Scott, T. W., Astete, H., Vasquez, G. M., … Lloyd, A. L. (2021, October 4). (Vol. 10). Vol. 10.

By: C. Gunning n, A. Morrison*, K. Okamoto*, T. Scott*, H. Astete*, G. Vasquez*, F. Gould n, A. Lloyd n

TL;DR: Skeeter Buster 2 (SB2), a stochastic, spatially explicit, mechanistic model of Ae. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
11. Sustainable Cities and Communities (OpenAlex)
Source: ORCID
Added: October 5, 2021

2021 journal article

Bidirectional contact tracing could dramatically improve COVID-19 control

NATURE COMMUNICATIONS, 12(1).

By: W. Bradshaw*, E. Alley, J. Huggins*, A. Lloyd n & K. Esvelt*

MeSH headings : COVID-19 / diagnosis; COVID-19 / prevention & control; COVID-19 / transmission; Computer Simulation; Contact Tracing / methods; Disease Outbreaks / prevention & control; Humans; Mobile Applications; SARS-CoV-2; Sensitivity and Specificity; Smartphone
TL;DR: In this model, bidirectional tracing more than doubles the reduction in effective reproduction number (Reff) achieved by forward-tracing alone, while dramatically increasing resilience to low case ascertainment and test sensitivity. (via Semantic Scholar)
Sources: ORCID, Web Of Science, NC State University Libraries
Added: January 12, 2021

2021 journal article

Disease-driven reduction in human mobility influences human-mosquito contacts and dengue transmission dynamics

PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY, 17(1).

By: K. Schaber*, T. Perkins*, A. Lloyd n, L. Waller*, U. Kitron*, V. Paz-Soldan*, J. Elder*, A. Rothman* ...

Ed(s): B. Althouse

MeSH headings : Animals; Computational Biology; Dengue / epidemiology; Dengue / prevention & control; Dengue / transmission; Dengue / virology; Dengue Virus; Disease Outbreaks / statistics & numerical data; Female; Humans; Models, Statistical; Mosquito Vectors / physiology; Mosquito Vectors / virology; Population Dynamics
TL;DR: The complex fabric of social relationships and differential behavioral response to dengue illness cause the fraction of symptomatic DENV infections to concentrate transmission in specific locations, whereas asymptomatic carriers move the virus throughout the landscape. (via Semantic Scholar)
Sources: ORCID, Web Of Science, NC State University Libraries
Added: January 20, 2021

2021 article

Embracing Dynamic Models for Gene Drive Management

Golnar, A. J., Ruell, E., Lloyd, A. L., & Pepin, K. M. (2021, March). TRENDS IN BIOTECHNOLOGY, Vol. 39, pp. 211–214.

By: A. Golnar*, E. Ruell*, A. Lloyd n & K. Pepin*

TL;DR: It is described how quantitative tools can reduce risk uncertainty, streamline empirical research, guide risk management, and promote cross-sector collaboration throughout the process of gene drive technology development and implementation. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
Sources: ORCID, Web Of Science, NC State University Libraries
Added: October 1, 2020

2021 journal article

Mathematical modeling of genetic pest management through female-specific lethality: Is one locus better than two?

EVOLUTIONARY APPLICATIONS, 14(6), 1612–1622.

By: M. Vella n, F. Gould n & A. Lloyd n

author keywords: eradication; female killing; mathematical modeling; multilocus; population genetics
TL;DR: A population genetics model with density dependence is used to evaluate the relative effectiveness of female killing approaches based on single- and two-construct arrangements and finds that the single-construct arrangement results in slightly faster population suppression, but the two- construct arrangement can eventually cause stronger suppression and cause local elimination with a smaller release size. (via Semantic Scholar)
Sources: ORCID, Web Of Science, NC State University Libraries
Added: May 5, 2021

2021 journal article

Population genomics of invasive rodents on islands: Genetic consequences of colonization and prospects for localized synthetic gene drive

EVOLUTIONARY APPLICATIONS, 14(5), 1421–1435.

By: K. Oh*, A. Shiels*, L. Shiels*, D. Blondel n, K. Campbell*, J. Saah n, A. Lloyd n, P. Thomas* ...

author keywords: Cas9; CRISPR; genetic biocontrol; genome editing; Mus musculus; synthetic biology
TL;DR: Results from pooled whole‐genome sequencing of invasive mouse populations on four islands along with paired putative source populations are used to test genetic predictions of island colonization and characterize locally fixed Cas9 genomic targets. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
14. Life Below Water (OpenAlex)
Sources: Web Of Science, NC State University Libraries
Added: March 29, 2021

2021 article

Rapid evolution of knockdown resistance haplotypes in response to pyrethroid selection in Aedes aegypti

Baltzegar, J., Vella, M., Gunning, C., Vasquez, G., Astete, H., Stell, F., … Gould, F. (2021, July 9). EVOLUTIONARY APPLICATIONS, Vol. 7.

By: J. Baltzegar n, M. Vella n, C. Gunning*, G. Vasquez*, H. Astete*, F. Stell*, M. Fisher*, T. Scott* ...

author keywords: Aedes aegypti; dominance; insecticide resistance; kdr; knockdown resistance; selection
TL;DR: This study describes the evolution of knockdown resistance (kdr) haplotypes in Aedes aegypti in response to pyrethroid insecticide use over the course of 18 years in Iquitos, Peru, providing evidence for the direct connection between programmatic citywidepyrethroid spraying and the increase in frequency of specific kdr haplotypes. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
11. Sustainable Cities and Communities (OpenAlex)
Sources: Web Of Science, NC State University Libraries
Added: July 19, 2021

2021 article

The feasibility of targeted test-trace-isolate for the control of SARS-CoV-2 variants

Bradshaw, W. J., Huggins, J. H., Lloyd, A. L., & Esvelt, K. M. (2021, January 13). (Vol. 1). Vol. 1.

TL;DR: A branching-process model is applied and indicates that bidirectional contact tracing can substantially slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1 .1.7 even in regions where a large fraction of the population refuses to cooperate with contact tracers or to abide by quarantine and isolation requests. (via Semantic Scholar)
Source: ORCID
Added: January 15, 2021

2020 journal article

After the honeymoon, the divorce: Unexpected outcomes of disease control measures against endemic infections

PLOS Computational Biology, 16(10), e1008292.

By: B. Hollingsworth n, K. Okamoto* & A. Lloyd n

Ed(s): R. Antia

MeSH headings : Animals; Basic Reproduction Number; COVID-19; COVID-19 Vaccines; Communicable Disease Control / methods; Coronavirus Infections / prevention & control; Culicidae; Dengue Vaccines / therapeutic use; Endemic Diseases / prevention & control; Health Policy; Humans; Immunization Programs; Insect Vectors; Models, Theoretical; Pandemics / prevention & control; Pneumonia, Viral / prevention & control; Public Health; Rubella / prevention & control; Rubella Vaccine / therapeutic use; Seasons; Severe Dengue / prevention & control; Viral Vaccines / therapeutic use
TL;DR: It is shown that deployment of control can lead to a larger total number of infections, counting from the time that control started, than without any control – the divorce effect. (via Semantic Scholar)
Source: ORCID
Added: October 20, 2020

2020 article

Bidirectional contact tracing dramatically improves COVID-19 control

Bradshaw, W. J., Alley, E. C., Huggins, J. H., Lloyd, A. L., & Esvelt, K. M. (2020, May 10). (Vol. 5). Vol. 5.

TL;DR: It is shown that “bidirectional” tracing to identify infector individuals and their other infectees robustly improves outbreak control, reducing the effective reproduction number (Reff) by at least ∼0.3 while dramatically increasing resilience to low case ascertainment and test sensitivity. (via Semantic Scholar)
Source: ORCID
Added: May 11, 2020

2020 article

COVID-19 control across urban-rural gradients

Wells, K., Lurgi, M., Collins, B., Lucini, B., Kao, R. R., Lloyd, A. L., … Gravenor, M. B. (2020, September 9). (Vol. 9). Vol. 9.

TL;DR: The model shows that isolation of symptomatic cases, or regional lockdowns in response to local outbreaks, have limited efficacy unless the overall transmission rate is kept persistently low, and emphasises the importance of test-and-tracing strategies and maintaining low transmission rates for efficiently controlling COVID19 spread, both at landscape scale and in urban areas. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being (OpenAlex)
Source: ORCID
Added: September 10, 2020

2020 journal article

Disease control across urban–rural gradients

Journal of The Royal Society Interface, 17(173), 20200775.

author keywords: disease spread; epidemiological metapopulation dynamics; pandemic control; source-sink dynamics
MeSH headings : Asymptomatic Infections / epidemiology; COVID-19 / epidemiology; COVID-19 / prevention & control; COVID-19 / transmission; Communicable Disease Control / methods; Computer Simulation; Contact Tracing; Humans; Models, Biological; Pandemics / prevention & control; Physical Distancing; Rural Population; SARS-CoV-2; Social Interaction; Urban Population; Wales / epidemiology
TL;DR: The model shows that isolation of symptomatic cases or regional lockdowns in response to local outbreaks have limited efficacy unless the overall transmission rate is kept persistently low, and highlights the importance of test-and-trace strategies and maintaining low transmission rates for efficiently controlling SARS-CoV-2 spread, both at landscape scale and in urban areas. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being (Web of Science; OpenAlex)
Source: ORCID
Added: December 9, 2020

2020 journal article

Efficacy and Spatial Extent of Yard-Scale Control of Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) Using Barrier Sprays and Larval Habitat Management

J. Med. Entomol., 57, 1104–1110.

By: B. Hollingsworth, P. Hawkins, A. Lloyd & M. Reiskind

Source: ORCID
Added: February 22, 2021

2020 article

Gene Drive Dynamics in Natural Populations: The Importance of Density Dependence, Space, and Sex

ANNUAL REVIEW OF ECOLOGY, EVOLUTION, AND SYSTEMATICS, VOL 51, 2020, Vol. 51, pp. 505–531.

By: S. Dhole n, A. Lloyd n & F. Gould n

author keywords: genetic pest management; underdominance; CRISPR; spatial dynamics; density dependence; population alteration
TL;DR: How different forms of density dependence, spatial heterogeneity, and mating behaviors can impact the spread of self-sustaining gene drives is reviewed. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
15. Life on Land (OpenAlex)
Sources: ORCID, Web Of Science, NC State University Libraries
Added: February 22, 2021

2020 journal article

Key questions for modelling COVID-19 exit strategies

author keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; exit strategy; mathematical modelling; epidemic control; uncertainty
MeSH headings : COVID-19; Child; Coronavirus Infections / epidemiology; Coronavirus Infections / immunology; Coronavirus Infections / prevention & control; Coronavirus Infections / transmission; Disease Eradication; Family Characteristics; Humans; Immunity, Herd; Models, Theoretical; Pandemics / prevention & control; Pneumonia, Viral / epidemiology; Pneumonia, Viral / immunology; Pneumonia, Viral / prevention & control; Pneumonia, Viral / transmission; Schools; Seroepidemiologic Studies
TL;DR: A roadmap to facilitate the development of reliable models to guide exit strategies is proposed, and has three parts: improve estimation of key epidemiological parameters; understand sources of heterogeneity in populations; and focus on requirements for data collection, particularly in low-to-middle-income countries. (via Semantic Scholar)
Sources: Web Of Science, NC State University Libraries
Added: September 14, 2020

2020 journal article

Optimizing the deployment of ultra-low volume and targeted indoor residual spraying for dengue outbreak response

PLOS Computational Biology, 16(4), e1007743.

By: S. Cavany*, G. España*, A. Lloyd n, L. Waller*, U. Kitron*, H. Astete*, W. Elson*, G. Vazquez-Prokopec* ...

Ed(s): M. Pascual

MeSH headings : Aedes / physiology; Animals; Computational Biology / methods; Computer Simulation; Dengue / epidemiology; Dengue / prevention & control; Dengue / transmission; Disease Outbreaks; Humans; Incidence; Insecticides; Models, Theoretical; Mosquito Control / methods; Mosquito Vectors; Zika Virus Infection / epidemiology; Zika Virus Infection / prevention & control; Zika Virus Infection / transmission
TL;DR: Although spraying twice each year is likely to avert the most infections, the results indicate that a threshold-based strategy can become an alternative to better balance the translation of spraying effort into impact, particularly if used with a residual insecticide. (via Semantic Scholar)
Source: ORCID
Added: April 21, 2020

2020 journal article

The basic reproductive number for disease systems with multiple coupled heterogeneities

Mathematical Biosciences, 220004.

By: A. Lloyd n, U. Kitron*, A. Perkins*, G. Prokopec* & L. Waller*

author keywords: Disease transmission model; Heterogeneity; Basic reproductive number; Coupled heterogeneities
MeSH headings : Basic Reproduction Number; Humans; Models, Biological
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being (Web of Science; OpenAlex)
Source: ORCID
Added: April 8, 2020

2019 article

After the honeymoon, the divorce: unexpected outcomes of disease control measures against endemic infections

Hollingsworth, B., Okamoto, K. W., & Lloyd, A. L. (2019, April 19). (Vol. 4). Vol. 4.

By: B. Hollingsworth n, K. Okamoto* & A. Lloyd n

UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being (OpenAlex)
Source: ORCID
Added: April 8, 2020

2019 journal article

Locally Fixed Alleles: A method to localize gene drive to island populations

SCIENTIFIC REPORTS, 9.

By: J. Sudweeks n, B. Hollingsworth n, D. Blondel n, K. Campbell, S. Dhole n, J. Eisemann*, O. Edwards*, J. Godwin n ...

MeSH headings : Alleles; Animals; Biodiversity; Islands
TL;DR: This paper proposes the “Locally Fixed Alleles” approach as a novel means for localizing elimination by a drive to an island population that exhibits significant genetic isolation from neighboring populations and explores the feasibility and degree of localization that can be achieved. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
15. Life on Land (OpenAlex)
Sources: Web Of Science, NC State University Libraries, ORCID
Added: November 18, 2019

2019 article

Optimizing the deployment of ultra-low volume and indoor residual spraying for dengue outbreak response

Cavany, S. M., España, G., Lloyd, A. L., Waller, L. A., Kitron, U., Astete, H., … Perkins, T. A. (2019, October 2).

By: S. Cavany*, G. España*, A. Lloyd n, L. Waller*, U. Kitron*, H. Astete*, W. Elson*, G. Vazquez-Prokopec* ...

TL;DR: Although spraying twice each year is likely to avert the most infections, the results indicate that a threshold-based strategy can become an alternative to better balance the translation of spraying effort into impact, particularly if used with a residual insecticide. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being (OpenAlex)
Source: ORCID
Added: April 8, 2020

2019 article

Pest management by genetic addiction

Gould, F., Dhole, S., & Lloyd, A. L. (2019, March 26). PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, Vol. 116, pp. 5849–5851.

By: F. Gould n, S. Dhole n & A. Lloyd n

MeSH headings : Gene Drive Technology; Pest Control
TL;DR: The work of Oberhofer et al. (1) adds substantially to a growing field within genetic engineering, often termed gene drive research, in which selfish genetic elements overcome the rules of Mendelian inheritance and push transgenes into a population. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
Sources: Web Of Science, ORCID, NC State University Libraries
Added: April 15, 2019

2019 journal article

Rodent gene drives for conservation: opportunities and data needs

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 286(1914), 20191606.

By: J. Godwin n, M. Serr n, S. Barnhill-Dilling n, D. Blondel n, P. Brown*, K. Campbell*, J. Delborne n, A. Lloyd n ...

Contributors: J. Godwin n, M. Serr n, S. Barnhill-Dilling n, D. Blondel n, P. Brown*, K. Campbell*, J. Delborne n, A. Lloyd n ...

author keywords: rodent; mice; rat; biodiversity; gene drive; island
MeSH headings : Animals; Biodiversity; Conservation of Natural Resources / methods; Gene Drive Technology; Introduced Species; Islands; Reproduction; Rodentia
TL;DR: What is currently known about natural and developing synthetic gene drive systems in mice, some key areas where key knowledge gaps exist, findings in a variety of disciplines relevant to those gaps and a brief consideration of how engagement at the regulatory, stakeholder and community levels can accompany and contribute to this effort. (via Semantic Scholar)
Sources: ORCID, Crossref, NC State University Libraries
Added: November 6, 2019

2019 journal article

Tethered homing gene drives: A new design for spatially restricted population replacement and suppression

EVOLUTIONARY APPLICATIONS, 12(8), 1688–1702.

By: S. Dhole n, A. Lloyd n & F. Gould n

author keywords: Cas; CRISPR; gene drive; genetic engineering; population alteration; underdominance
TL;DR: A new gene drive system, Tethered Homing (TH), is presented, with improved capacity for localized population alteration, especially for population suppression, and the ability to gradually adjust the genetic load in a population after the initial alteration, with minimal additional release effort. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
Sources: Web Of Science, ORCID, NC State University Libraries
Added: October 21, 2019

2018 journal article

An approach to periodic, time-varying parameter estimation using nonlinear filtering

Inverse Problems, 34(10), 105005.

By: A. Arnold n & A. Lloyd n

author keywords: time-varying parameter estimation; periodic structure; nonlinear filtering; ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF); FitzHugh-Nagumo; measles transmission
TL;DR: An approach to estimating periodic, time-Varying parameters that imposes periodic structure by treating the time-varying parameter as a piecewise function with unknown coefficients is presented, allowing the resulting parameter estimate more flexibility in shape than prescribing a specific functional form to model its behavior. (via Semantic Scholar)
Sources: Web Of Science, Crossref, ORCID
Added: October 19, 2018

2018 journal article

Contributions from the silent majority dominate dengue virus transmission

PLOS Pathogens, 14(5), e1006965.

Ed(s): N. Ferguson

MeSH headings : Aedes / virology; Animals; Dengue / diagnosis; Dengue / transmission; Dengue / virology; Dengue Virus / pathogenicity; Disease Reservoirs / virology; Host-Pathogen Interactions; Humans; Models, Biological; Mosquito Vectors / virology; Viremia / diagnosis; Viremia / transmission; Viremia / virology
TL;DR: The need to reorient current practices for outbreak response to adoption of pre-emptive strategies that account for contributions of undetected infections in surveillance programs, when assessing intervention impact, and when modeling mosquito-borne virus transmission is emphasized. (via Semantic Scholar)
Sources: Web Of Science, Crossref
Added: August 6, 2018

2018 journal article

Contributions from the silent majority dominate dengue virus transmission

PLOS Pathogens, 14(5), e1006965.

By: Q. Bosch, H. Clapham, L. Lambrechts, V. Duong, P. Buchy, B. Althouse, A. Lloyd, L. Waller ...

Source: ORCID
Added: April 8, 2020

2018 journal article

Efficacy of Aedes aegypti control by indoor Ultra Low Volume (ULV) insecticide spraying in Iquitos, Peru

PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 12(4), e0006378.

By: C. Gunning n, K. Okamoto n, H. Astete*, G. Vasquez*, E. Erhardt*, C. Del Aguila*, R. Pinedo*, R. Cardenas* ...

Ed(s): R. Barrera

MeSH headings : Aedes / drug effects; Aedes / physiology; Animals; Female; Insect Vectors / drug effects; Insect Vectors / physiology; Insecticides / analysis; Insecticides / toxicity; Male; Mosquito Control / methods; Peru; Pyrethrins / analysis; Pyrethrins / toxicity
TL;DR: The results demonstrate that densities of adult Ae. (via Semantic Scholar)
Sources: Web Of Science, Crossref, NC State University Libraries
Added: August 6, 2018

2018 journal article

Efficacy of Aedes aegypti control by indoor Ultra Low Volume (ULV) insecticide spraying in Iquitos, Peru

PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 12(4), e0006378.

By: C. Gunning, K. Okamoto, H. Astete, G. Vasquez, E. Erhardt, C. Del Aguila, R. Pinedo, R. Cardenas ...

Source: ORCID
Added: April 8, 2020

2018 journal article

Invasion and migration of spatially self-limiting gene drives: A comparative analysis

Evolutionary Applications, 11(5), 794–808.

By: S. Dhole n, M. Vella n, A. Lloyd n & F. Gould n

author keywords: Cas9; CRISPR; daisy-chain drive; gene drive; population alteration; underdominance
TL;DR: Differences in the minimum release size required for successfully driving a payload into a population and in the extent of population alteration are found, which could affect the suitability of each gene drive for specific applications. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
10. Reduced Inequalities (OpenAlex)
Sources: Web Of Science, Crossref, NC State University Libraries, ORCID
Added: August 6, 2018

2017 journal article

Adaptive filtering for hidden node detection and tracking in networks

Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 27(7), 073106.

By: F. Hamilton n, B. Setzer n, S. Chavez n, H. Tran n & A. Lloyd n

TL;DR: This work considers the hidden node as a problem of missing variables when model fitting and shows that the estimated system noise covariance provided by the adaptive filter can be used to localize the influence of the hidden nodes and distinguish the effects of different hidden nodes. (via Semantic Scholar)
Sources: Crossref, NC State University Libraries
Added: August 6, 2018

2017 journal article

Adaptive filtering for hidden node detection and tracking in networks

Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 27(7), 073106.

By: F. Hamilton, B. Setzer, S. Chavez, H. Tran & A. Lloyd

Source: ORCID
Added: April 8, 2020

2017 journal article

Dynamical behavior of an epidemiological model with a demographic Allee effect

Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 133, 311–325.

By: S. Usaini*, A. Lloyd n, R. Anguelov* & S. Garba*

author keywords: Allee effect; Threshold; Extinction; Saddle-node bifurcation
TL;DR: It is shown using susceptible–exposed–infectious (SEI) model that such mechanisms combined with disease pathogenicity have a detrimental impact on the dynamics of a population at high population level, resulting in an inevitable population crash to extinction. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being (Web of Science; OpenAlex)
Sources: Web Of Science, Crossref, ORCID
Added: August 6, 2018

2017 journal article

Evaluating strategies for reversing CRISPR-Cas9 gene drives

Scientific Reports, 7(1).

By: M. Vella n, C. Gunning n, A. Lloyd n & F. Gould n

MeSH headings : CRISPR-Associated Protein 9 / metabolism; Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats; Gene Drive Technology / methods; Genetics, Population / methods; Models, Statistical; Organisms, Genetically Modified / genetics; Time Factors
TL;DR: A discrete time model for population genetics of a drive and proposed genetic countermeasures is developed and predicts unexpected behavior including polymorphic equilibria and oscillatory dynamics. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
15. Life on Land (OpenAlex)
Sources: Web Of Science, Crossref, NC State University Libraries
Added: August 6, 2018

2017 article

Evaluating strategies for reversing CRISPR-Cas9 gene drives

Vella, M. R., Gunning, C. E., Lloyd, A. L., & Gould, F. (2017, May 30). Scientific Reports, Vol. 5, p. 11038.

By: M. Vella n, C. Gunning n, A. Lloyd n & F. Gould n

UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
15. Life on Land (OpenAlex)
Source: ORCID
Added: April 8, 2020

2017 journal article

Hybrid modeling and prediction of dynamical systems

PLOS Computational Biology, 13(7), e1005655.

By: F. Hamilton n, A. Lloyd n & K. Flores n

Ed(s): J. Saucerman

MeSH headings : Models, Biological; Models, Statistical; Neurons; Statistics, Nonparametric; Systems Biology
TL;DR: A hybrid approach to modeling and prediction which merges recent advancements in nonparametric analysis with standard parametric methods is considered, finding that this hybrid approach allows for more robust parameter estimation and improved short-term prediction in situations where there is a large uncertainty in model parameters. (via Semantic Scholar)
Sources: Crossref, NC State University Libraries, ORCID
Added: August 6, 2018

2017 journal article

Plasmodium knowlesi invasion following spread by infected mosquitoes, macaques and humans

Parasitology, 145(1), 101–110.

author keywords: invasion analysis; Plasmodium knowlesi; vector-borne disease; mathematical model; vector behaviour
MeSH headings : Animals; Anopheles / parasitology; Anopheles / physiology; Host-Parasite Interactions; Humans; Macaca; Malaria / parasitology; Malaria / transmission; Malaria / veterinary; Models, Biological; Monkey Diseases / parasitology; Monkey Diseases / transmission; Monte Carlo Method; Mosquito Vectors / parasitology; Mosquito Vectors / physiology; Plasmodium knowlesi / physiology
TL;DR: Invasion analysis demonstrates that this behavioural plasticity can qualitatively impact the probability of an epidemic sparked by imported infection. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being (Web of Science; OpenAlex)
Sources: Web Of Science, Crossref, ORCID
Added: August 6, 2018

2016 journal article

Comparison of two detailed models of Aedes aegypti population dynamics

Ecosphere, 7(10), e01515.

author keywords: Aedes aegypti; model comparison; mosquito-borne diseases; population dynamics; spatial model; vector control
TL;DR: It is shown that predictions of population recovery by the models differ substantially, an effect likely related to model assumptions regarding larval development and (direct or delayed) density dependence, and revealing the impact of model assumptions on population dynamics predictions in unperturbed and perturbed conditions. (via Semantic Scholar)
Sources: Crossref, Web Of Science, NC State University Libraries, ORCID
Added: August 6, 2018

2016 journal article

Computational model of the fathead minnow hypothalamic–pituitary–gonadal axis: Incorporating protein synthesis in improving predictability of responses to endocrine active chemicals

Comparative Biochemistry and Physiology Part C: Toxicology & Pharmacology, 183-184, 36–45.

By: M. Breen n, D. Villeneuve*, G. Ankley*, D. Bencic*, M. Breen*, K. Watanabe*, A. Lloyd n, R. Conolly*

Contributors: M. Breen n, D. Villeneuve*, G. Ankley*, D. Bencic*, M. Breen*, K. Watanabe*, A. Lloyd n, R. Conolly*

author keywords: Adaptation; Computational model; Endocrine disrupting chemicals; Fadrozole; Fish; Hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal axis; Protein synthesis; Toxicology
MeSH headings : Animals; Aromatase / chemistry; Aromatase / genetics; Aromatase / metabolism; Aromatase Inhibitors / administration & dosage; Aromatase Inhibitors / toxicity; Computational Biology; Cyprinidae / blood; Cyprinidae / growth & development; Cyprinidae / physiology; Dose-Response Relationship, Drug; Endocrine Disruptors / administration & dosage; Endocrine Disruptors / toxicity; Estradiol / blood; Fadrozole / administration & dosage; Fadrozole / toxicity; Female; Fish Proteins / agonists; Fish Proteins / antagonists & inhibitors; Fish Proteins / genetics; Fish Proteins / metabolism; Gene Expression Regulation, Developmental / drug effects; Hypothalamo-Hypophyseal System / drug effects; Hypothalamo-Hypophyseal System / metabolism; Male; Models, Biological; Ovary / drug effects; Ovary / enzymology; Ovary / metabolism; RNA, Messenger / metabolism; Random Allocation; Reproducibility of Results; Testis / drug effects; Testis / metabolism; Toxicity Tests / methods; Water Pollutants, Chemical / administration & dosage; Water Pollutants, Chemical / toxicity
TL;DR: It is suggested that aromatase protein synthesis is an important process in the biological system to model the effects of FAD exposure and the model accurately predicts CYP19A mRNA fold changes and plasma E2 dose-response from the 4-d concentration-response study. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
Sources: Web Of Science, Crossref, ORCID, NC State University Libraries
Added: August 6, 2018

2016 journal article

Coupled Heterogeneities and Their Impact on Parasite Transmission and Control

Trends in Parasitology, 32(5), 356–367.

MeSH headings : Animals; Dengue / prevention & control; Dengue / transmission; Dengue Virus / physiology; Host-Parasite Interactions / immunology; Host-Parasite Interactions / physiology; Humans; Parasites / physiology; Parasitic Diseases / prevention & control; Parasitic Diseases / transmission
TL;DR: It is argued that research efforts should move beyond considering the impact of single sources of heterogeneity and account for complex couplings between conditions with potential synergistic impacts on parasite transmission. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being (Web of Science; OpenAlex)
Sources: Web Of Science, Crossref
Added: August 6, 2018

2016 journal article

Coupled heterogeneities and their impact on parasite transmission and control

Trends in Parasitology, 32(5), 356–367.

Alun Lloyd

Source: ORCID
Added: April 8, 2020

2016 journal article

Integrating Transgenic Vector Manipulation with Clinical Interventions to Manage Vector-Borne Diseases

PLOS Computational Biology, 12(3), e1004695.

By: K. Okamoto n, F. Gould n & A. Lloyd n

Ed(s): S. Alizon

MeSH headings : Animals; Combined Modality Therapy / methods; Communicable Diseases / epidemiology; Communicable Diseases / genetics; Communicable Diseases / virology; Computer Simulation; Genetic Engineering / methods; Humans; Insect Vectors / genetics; Models, Genetic; Treatment Outcome
TL;DR: A framework to evaluate how clinical interventions can be integrated with transgenic vector manipulation strategies to prevent disease invasion and reduce disease incidence is developed and finds that for systems at the disease-endemic equilibrium, even modest perturbations induced by weak interventions can exhibit strong, albeit transient, epidemiological effects. (via Semantic Scholar)
Sources: Web Of Science, Crossref, NC State University Libraries, ORCID
Added: August 6, 2018

2016 journal article

On the Seasonal Occurrence and Abundance of the Zika Virus Vector Mosquito Aedes Aegypti in the Contiguous United States

PLoS Currents.

By: A. Monaghan*, C. Morin*, D. Steinhoff*, O. Wilhelmi*, M. Hayden*, D. Quattrochi*, M. Reiskind n, A. Lloyd n ...

TL;DR: Mosquito abundance results can inform baseline risk for local Zika virus transmission in the U.S. and the optimal timing of vector control activities, and underscore the need for enhanced surveillance for Aedes mosquitoes and Aedes-transmitted viruses. (via Semantic Scholar)
Sources: Crossref, NC State University Libraries, ORCID
Added: July 28, 2019

2015 journal article

Five challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission

EPIDEMICS, 10, 54–57.

author keywords: Stochastic epidemics; Global transmission; Extinction; Genetic evolution; Endemicity
MeSH headings : Biological Evolution; Communicable Diseases / epidemiology; Communicable Diseases / transmission; Endemic Diseases / statistics & numerical data; Epidemics / statistics & numerical data; Extinction, Biological; Global Health / statistics & numerical data; Humans; Models, Statistical; Stochastic Processes
TL;DR: The most basic stochastic epidemic models are those involving global transmission, meaning that infection rates depend only on the type and state of the individuals involved, and not on their location in the population. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being (Web of Science; OpenAlex)
Sources: Web Of Science, ORCID
Added: August 6, 2018

2015 journal article

Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health

Science, 347(6227), aaa4339.

By: H. Heesterbeek*, R. Anderson*, V. Andreasen*, S. Bansal*, D. De Angelis*, C. Dye*, K. Eames*, W. Edmunds* ...

MeSH headings : Animals; Basic Reproduction Number; Coinfection; Communicable Disease Control; Communicable Diseases / epidemiology; Communicable Diseases / transmission; Communicable Diseases, Emerging / epidemiology; Communicable Diseases, Emerging / transmission; Disease Outbreaks; Global Health; Health Policy; Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola / epidemiology; Humans; Models, Biological; Public Health; Zoonoses / epidemiology; Zoonoses / transmission
TL;DR: The development of mathematical models used in epidemiology are reviewed and how these can be harnessed to develop successful control strategies and inform public health policy, using the West African Ebola epidemic as an example. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being (OpenAlex)
Source: ORCID
Added: April 8, 2020

2015 journal article

Nine challenges for deterministic epidemic models

Epidemics, 10, 49–53.

author keywords: Deterministic models; Endemic equilibrium; Multi-strain systems; Spatial models; Non-communicable diseases
MeSH headings : Communicable Diseases / epidemiology; Communicable Diseases / transmission; Endemic Diseases / statistics & numerical data; Epidemics / statistics & numerical data; Epidemiologic Factors; Humans; Models, Statistical; Stochastic Processes; Superinfection
TL;DR: The need for models that describe multi-strain infections, infections with time-varying infectivity, and those where super infection is possible is indicated, and the need for advances in spatial epidemic models is considered. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being (Web of Science; OpenAlex)
Sources: Web Of Science, Crossref, ORCID
Added: August 6, 2018

2015 journal article

Seven challenges for model-driven data collection in experimental and observational studies

Epidemics, 10, 78–82.

author keywords: Modeling; Data collection; Observational studies; Experimental studies
MeSH headings : Communicable Diseases / epidemiology; Communicable Diseases / transmission; Data Collection / methods; Epidemiologic Research Design; Humans; Models, Statistical; Observational Studies as Topic / methods
TL;DR: A close marriage of dynamic modeling and empirical data collection is far from the norm in infectious disease research, and overcoming the challenges to using models to inform data collection has the potential to accelerate innovation and to improve practice in how the authors deal with infectious disease threats. (via Semantic Scholar)
Sources: Web Of Science, Crossref, ORCID, NC State University Libraries
Added: August 6, 2018

2015 journal article

Seven challenges for modelling indirect transmission: Vector-borne diseases, macroparasites and neglected tropical diseases

Epidemics, 10, 16–20.

author keywords: Vector-borne disease; Macroparasites; Neglected tropical diseases; Helminths; Vectors
MeSH headings : Animals; Disease Reservoirs / statistics & numerical data; Disease Transmission, Infectious / statistics & numerical data; Disease Vectors; Humans; Incidence; Models, Statistical; Neglected Diseases / epidemiology; Neglected Diseases / parasitology; Parasitic Diseases / epidemiology; Parasitic Diseases / transmission; Risk Factors
TL;DR: The challenges of indirect measures of infection in humans, whether through vectors or transmission life stages and in estimating the contribution of different host groups to transmission are discussed. (via Semantic Scholar)
Sources: Web Of Science, Crossref, ORCID
Added: August 6, 2018

2014 journal article

A global assembly of adult female mosquito mark-release-recapture data to inform the control of mosquito-borne pathogens

Parasites & Vectors, 7(1), 276.

By: C. Guerra*, R. Reiner*, T. Perkins*, S. Lindsay*, J. Midega*, O. Brady*, C. Barker*, W. Reisen* ...

author keywords: Mosquito; Vector; Mark-release-recapture; Database; Pathogen transmission models
MeSH headings : Animals; Communicable Diseases / transmission; Culicidae / microbiology; Culicidae / parasitology; Culicidae / physiology; Female; Global Health; Humans; Insect Vectors; Male; Mosquito Control; Population Dynamics; Species Specificity
TL;DR: A comprehensive database describing adult female MMRR experiments involving 58 vector mosquito species from the three main genera of importance to human health, revealing patterns associated with geography as well as mosquito genus consistent with bionomics varying by species-specific life history and ecological context. (via Semantic Scholar)
Sources: Web Of Science, Crossref
Added: August 6, 2018

2014 journal article

A global assembly of adult female mosquito mark-release-recapture data to inform the control of mosquito-borne pathogens

Parasit Vectors, 7(1), 276.

By: C. Guerra, R. Reiner, T. Perkins, S. Lindsay, J. Midega, O. Brady, C. Barker, W. Reisen ...

Source: ORCID
Added: April 8, 2020

2014 journal article

Antipathogen genes and the replacement of disease-vectoring mosquito populations: a model-based evaluation

Evolutionary Applications, 7(10), 1238–1251.

author keywords: Aedes aegypti; antipathogen genes; dengue fever; female-killing; ordinary differential equation model; reduce and replace
TL;DR: A mathematical model is utilized to evaluate impacts on competent Aedes aegypti populations of FK, AP, and R&R releases as well as hybrid strategies that result from combinations of these three approaches and discusses the roles that density dependence and inclusion of females play in the order of efficacy of the strategies. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
Sources: Web Of Science, Crossref, ORCID
Added: August 6, 2018

2014 journal article

Feasible Introgression of an Anti-pathogen Transgene into an Urban Mosquito Population without Using Gene-Drive

PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES, 8(7).

By: K. Okamoto n, M. Robert n, F. Gould n & A. Lloyd n

MeSH headings : Aedes / genetics; Animals; Animals, Genetically Modified / genetics; Communicable Disease Control / methods; Insect Vectors / genetics; Mosquito Control / methods; Peru; Transgenes / genetics
TL;DR: It is found that releasing mosquitoes carrying only an anti-pathogen construct can substantially decrease vector competence of a natural population, even at release ratios well below that required for the two currently feasible alternatives that rely on population reduction. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
11. Sustainable Cities and Communities (OpenAlex)
Sources: Web Of Science, NC State University Libraries, ORCID
Added: August 6, 2018

2014 journal article

Optimal two-phase vaccine allocation to geographically different regions under uncertainty

EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH, 233(1), 208–219.

By: H. Yarmand n, J. Ivy n, B. Denton* & A. Lloyd n

author keywords: OR in health services; Epidemic control; Two-phase vaccine allocation; Stochastic linear program; Newsvendor model; Value of stochastic solution
TL;DR: A decision process in which vaccination is performed in two phases to contain the outbreak of an infectious disease in a set of geographic regions potentially results in a lower attack rate and a considerable saving in vaccine production and administration cost. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being (Web of Science; OpenAlex)
Sources: Web Of Science, ORCID
Added: August 6, 2018

2014 journal article

Recasting the theory of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control

Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 108(4), 185–197.

By: D. Smith*, T. Perkins, R. Reiner, C. Barker, T. Niu, L. Chaves, A. Ellis, D. George ...

author keywords: Dengue; Filariasis; Malaria; Mosquito-borne pathogen transmission; Vector control; West Nile virus
MeSH headings : Animals; Culicidae; Humans; Insect Vectors; Models, Biological; Models, Theoretical; Parasitic Diseases / prevention & control; Parasitic Diseases / transmission
TL;DR: Novel mathematical approaches show how heterogeneity arises from the biology and the landscape on which the processes of mosquito biting and pathogen transmission unfold, and point to the capacity to model heterogeneous, focal transmission as the most important but relatively unexplored component in current theory. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being (Web of Science; OpenAlex)
Sources: Web Of Science, Crossref
Added: August 6, 2018

2014 journal article

Recasting the theory of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control

Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 108(4), 185–197.

Alun Lloyd

Source: ORCID
Added: April 8, 2020

2014 journal article

Time-varying, serotype-specific force of infection of dengue virus

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(26), E2694–E2702.

By: R. Reiner*, S. Stoddard*, B. Forshey*, A. King*, A. Ellis*, A. Lloyd n, K. Long*, C. Rocha* ...

author keywords: disease ecology; emerging infections; arthropod-borne virus
MeSH headings : Dengue / epidemiology; Dengue / transmission; Dengue Virus / genetics; Humans; Longitudinal Studies; Models, Biological; Peru / epidemiology; Public Health Surveillance / methods; Time Factors
TL;DR: The first time-varying (daily), serotype-specific estimates of DENV FoIs are presented using a spline-based fitting procedure designed to examine a 12-y, longitudinal DENV serological dataset from Iquitos, Peru, providing a basis for understanding the persistence of this rapidly emerging pathogen and improving disease prevention programs. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being (Web of Science; OpenAlex)
Sources: Web Of Science, Crossref
Added: August 6, 2018

2014 journal article

Time-varying, serotype-specific force of infection of dengue virus

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(26), E2694–E2702.

By: R. Reiner, S. Stoddard, B. Forshey, A. King, A. Ellis, A. Lloyd, K. Long, C. Rocha ...

Source: ORCID
Added: April 8, 2020

2014 article

Weak Convergence of a Seasonally Forced Stochastic Epidemic Model

ArXiv Preprint ArXiv:1412.0964.

By: A. Lloyd & Y. Zhang

Source: ORCID
Added: April 8, 2020

2013 journal article

A Reduce and Replace Strategy for Suppressing Vector-Borne Diseases: Insights from a Deterministic Model

PLOS ONE, 8(9).

By: M. Robert n, K. Okamoto n, A. Lloyd n & F. Gould n

MeSH headings : Aedes / genetics; Aedes / physiology; Animals; Communicable Disease Control / methods; Dengue / prevention & control; Dengue / transmission; Female; Genetic Engineering; Insect Vectors / genetics; Insect Vectors / physiology; Male; Models, Theoretical; Time Factors
TL;DR: It is shown that repeated R&R releases may lead to a temporary decrease in mosquito population density and, in the absence of fitness costs associated with the anti-pathogen gene, a long-term decrease in competent vector population density. (via Semantic Scholar)
Sources: Web Of Science, NC State University Libraries, ORCID
Added: August 6, 2018

2013 journal article

A Reduce and Replace Strategy for Suppressing Vector-Borne Diseases: Insights from a Stochastic, Spatial Model

PLOS ONE, 8(12).

By: K. Okamoto n, M. Robert n, A. Lloyd n & F. Gould n

MeSH headings : Aedes / genetics; Aedes / virology; Animals; Animals, Genetically Modified; Calibration; Computer Simulation; Dengue Virus / physiology; Female; Genotype; Insect Vectors / virology; Male; Models, Theoretical; Ovum / metabolism; Stochastic Processes
TL;DR: It is found this “reduce and replace” strategy can decrease the frequency of competent vectors below 50% two years after releases end, and appears preferable to releasing a strain carrying only a female-killing gene, which is likely to merely result in temporary population suppression. (via Semantic Scholar)
Sources: Web Of Science, NC State University Libraries
Added: August 6, 2018

2013 review

A systematic review of mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission: 1970-2010

[Review of ]. JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY INTERFACE, 10(81).

By: R. Reiner*, T. Perkins*, C. Barker*, T. Niu*, L. Fernando Chaves*, A. Ellis*, D. George*, A. Le Menach* ...

Contributors: R. Reiner*, T. Perkins*, C. Barker*, T. Niu*, L. Fernando Chaves*, A. Ellis*, D. George*, A. Le Menach* ...

author keywords: infectious disease dynamics; vector-borne disease; epidemiology; dengue; West Nile; filariasis
MeSH headings : Animals; Communicable Diseases / epidemiology; Communicable Diseases / transmission; Culicidae / parasitology; Culicidae / virology; Geography; Host-Pathogen Interactions; Insect Vectors / parasitology; Insect Vectors / virology; Models, Biological
TL;DR: Although the analysis illustrated a growing acknowledgement of geographical, ecological and epidemiological complexities in modelling transmission, most models during the past 40 years closely resemble the Ross–Macdonald model. (via Semantic Scholar)
Sources: Web Of Science, ORCID, NC State University Libraries
Added: August 6, 2018

2013 journal article

Developing Predictive Approaches to Characterize Adaptive Responses of the Reproductive Endocrine Axis to Aromatase Inhibition: II. Computational Modeling

TOXICOLOGICAL SCIENCES, 133(2), 234–247.

By: M. Breen n, D. Villeneuve*, G. Ankley*, D. Bencic*, M. Breen*, K. Watanabe*, A. Lloyd n, R. Conolly*

author keywords: endocrine disruptors; biological modeling; non-mammalian species; dose response; biomarkers
MeSH headings : Adaptation, Physiological / drug effects; Animal Testing Alternatives; Animals; Aromatase Inhibitors / toxicity; Computer Simulation; Cyprinidae / physiology; Dose-Response Relationship, Drug; Estradiol / blood; Estrogen Antagonists / toxicity; Fadrozole / toxicity; Female; Hypothalamo-Hypophyseal System / drug effects; Hypothalamo-Hypophyseal System / enzymology; Male; Ovary / drug effects; Ovary / enzymology; Predictive Value of Tests; Time Factors
TL;DR: A computational model of the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal (HPG) axis in female fathead minnows is developed to predict dose-response and time-course behaviors for endocrine effects of the aromatase inhibitor, fadrozole (FAD). (via Semantic Scholar)
Source: Web Of Science
Added: August 6, 2018

2013 journal article

Developing predictive approaches to characterize adaptive responses of the reproductive endocrine axis to aromatase inhibition: II. Computational modeling

Toxicological Sciences, 133(2), 234–247.

By: M. Breen, D. Villeneuve, G. Ankley, D. Bencic, M. Breen, K. Watanabe, A. Lloyd, R. Conolly

Source: ORCID
Added: April 8, 2020

2013 journal article

Developmental timing of mutations revealed by whole-genome sequencing of twins with acute lymphoblastic leukemia

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 110(18), 7429–7433.

By: Y. Ma*, S. Dobbins*, A. Sherborne*, D. Chubb*, M. Galbiati*, G. Cazzaniga*, C. Micalizzi*, R. Tearle* ...

author keywords: fusion gene; copy number variants
MeSH headings : Child; Child, Preschool; DNA Mutational Analysis; Genome, Human / genetics; Humans; Mutation / genetics; Precursor Cell Lymphoblastic Leukemia-Lymphoma / genetics; Time Factors
TL;DR: This work sequenced the whole genomes of leukemic cells from two twin pairs with ALL to comprehensively characterize acquired somatic mutations in ALL, elucidating the developmental timing of all genetic lesions. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being (OpenAlex)
Sources: Crossref, NC State University Libraries
Added: February 24, 2020

2013 journal article

Field Cage Studies and Progressive Evaluation of Genetically-Engineered Mosquitoes

PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES, 7(1).

By: L. Facchinelli*, L. Valerio*, J. Ramsey*, F. Gould n, R. Walsh n, G. Bond*, M. Robert n, A. Lloyd n ...

MeSH headings : Aedes / genetics; Aedes / physiology; Animals; Dengue / prevention & control; Disease Vectors; Female; Flight, Animal; Male; Organisms, Genetically Modified; Pest Control, Biological / methods; Sexual Behavior
TL;DR: The results indicate that OX3604C may not be effective in large-scale releases of genetically-engineered mosquitoes, and a strain with the same transgene that is not encumbered by a large mating disadvantage, however, could have improved prospects for dengue prevention. (via Semantic Scholar)
Sources: Web Of Science, NC State University Libraries, ORCID
Added: August 6, 2018

2013 journal article

Modeling the Dynamics of a Non-Limited and a Self-Limited Gene Drive System in Structured Aedes aegypti Populations

PLoS ONE, 8(12), e83354.

By: M. Legros n, C. Xu n, A. Morrison*, T. Scott*, A. Lloyd n & F. Gould n

Ed(s): Z. Adelman

MeSH headings : Aedes / genetics; Animals; Animals, Genetically Modified / genetics; Dengue / genetics; Dengue / prevention & control; Dengue / transmission; Female; Gene Frequency; Genetic Engineering; Genetics, Population; Homozygote; Insect Vectors / genetics; Male; Models, Genetic; Mosquito Control; Peru; Population Dynamics; Time Factors
TL;DR: This study provides guidelines for operational approaches to population replacement genetic strategies, as well as illustrates the use of detailed spatial models to assist in safe and efficient implementation of such novel genetic strategies. (via Semantic Scholar)
Sources: Web Of Science, Crossref, NC State University Libraries, ORCID
Added: August 6, 2018

2013 journal article

Regulation of Aedes aegypti Population Dynamics in Field Systems: Quantifying Direct and Delayed Density Dependence

The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 89(1), 68–77.

MeSH headings : Aedes / growth & development; Aedes / physiology; Animals; Body Size; Female; Larva; Male; Mexico; Mosquito Control; Population Density; Population Dynamics; Seasons; Wings, Animal / anatomy & histology
TL;DR: Results indicate that control methods attempting to reduce mosquito populations may be counteracted by density-dependent population regulation, and specifically on larval survival, larval development, and adult body size. (via Semantic Scholar)
Sources: Web Of Science, Crossref, NC State University Libraries, ORCID
Added: August 6, 2018

2013 journal article

Viral Substitution Rate Variation Can Arise from the Interplay between Within-Host and Epidemiological Dynamics

AMERICAN NATURALIST, 182(4), 494–513.

By: S. Scholle*, R. Ypma*, A. Lloyd n & K. Koelle*

author keywords: substitution rate variation; RNA virus evolution; within-host dynamics; epidemiological model; disease dynamics
MeSH headings : Evolution, Molecular; Host-Pathogen Interactions; Models, Genetic; RNA Viruses / genetics; Species Specificity
TL;DR: This work shows that even in neutrally evolving viral populations, epidemiological dynamics can alter substitution rates via the interplay between within-host replication dynamics and population-level disease dynamics. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being (Web of Science; OpenAlex)
Sources: Web Of Science, ORCID
Added: August 6, 2018

2012 journal article

Assessing the Feasibility of Controlling Aedes aegypti with Transgenic Methods: A Model-Based Evaluation

PLoS ONE, 7(12), e52235.

By: M. Legros n, C. Xu n, K. Okamoto n, T. Scott*, A. Morrison*, A. Lloyd n, F. Gould n

Ed(s): N. Vasilakis

MeSH headings : Aedes / genetics; Aedes / physiology; Animals; Animals, Genetically Modified / genetics; Animals, Genetically Modified / physiology; Mosquito Control; Peru
TL;DR: It is demonstrated that substantial suppression can nonetheless be achieved if releases are deployed in a uniform spatial pattern using strains combining multiple lethal elements, illustrating the importance of detailed spatial models for guiding genetic mosquito control strategies. (via Semantic Scholar)
Sources: Crossref, Web Of Science, NC State University Libraries, ORCID
Added: August 6, 2018

2012 journal article

Graph fission in an evolving voter model

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 109(10), 3682–3687.

By: R. Durrett*, J. Gleeson*, A. Lloyd n, P. Mucha*, F. Shi*, D. Sivakoff*, J. Socolar*, C. Varghese*

author keywords: coevolutionary network; quasi-stationary distribution; Wright-Fisher diffusion; approximate master equation
MeSH headings : Algorithms; Computer Simulation; Diffusion; Humans; Models, Statistical; Models, Theoretical; Politics; Probability; Public Opinion; Social Support
TL;DR: Using simulations and approximate calculations, it is explained why these two nearly identical models of a social network in which individuals have one of two opinions and their opinions and the network connections coevolve have such dramatically different phase transitions. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
10. Reduced Inequalities (OpenAlex)
Sources: Web Of Science, ORCID
Added: August 6, 2018

2012 journal article

Mathematical Models as Aids for Design and Development of Experiments: The Case of Transgenic Mosquitoes

Journal of Medical Entomology, 49(6), 1177–1188.

author keywords: Aedes aegypti; transgenic female-killing; field cage experiment; experimental design; mathematical model
MeSH headings : Aedes / genetics; Animals; Animals, Genetically Modified; Computer Simulation; Female; Male; Models, Genetic; Mosquito Control; Pest Control, Biological; Population Density; Population Dynamics; Research Design; Stochastic Processes
TL;DR: The exploration of a stochastic, age-structured model that simulates field cage experiments that test the ability of a female-killing strain of the mosquito Aedes aegypti to suppress a wild-type population is described. (via Semantic Scholar)
Sources: Crossref, ORCID
Added: July 20, 2019

2012 journal article

PARAMETER ESTIMATION AND UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION FOR AN EPIDEMIC MODEL

MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES AND ENGINEERING, 9(3), 553–576.

By: A. Capaldi, S. Behrend, B. Berman, J. Smith, J. Wright & A. Lloyd n

author keywords: Inverse problem; sampling methods; asymptotic statistical theory; sensitivity analysis; parameter identifiability
MeSH headings : Basic Reproduction Number / statistics & numerical data; Communicable Diseases / epidemiology; Communicable Diseases / transmission; Disease Outbreaks / statistics & numerical data; Humans; Models, Biological; Uncertainty
TL;DR: Estimation of the parameters of Susceptible-Infective-Recovered models in the context of least squares finds that estimates of different parameters are correlated, with the magnitude and sign of this correlation depending on the value of R0. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being (Web of Science; OpenAlex)
Sources: Web Of Science, ORCID
Added: August 6, 2018

2011 journal article

Evaluation of Location-Specific Predictions by a Detailed Simulation Model of Aedes aegypti Populations

PLoS ONE, 6(7), e22701.

By: M. Legros n, K. Magori*, A. Morrison*, C. Xu n, T. Scott*, A. Lloyd n, F. Gould n

Ed(s): E. Ooi

MeSH headings : Aedes; Animals; Argentina; Female; Models, Theoretical; Population Dynamics; Stochastic Processes; Time Factors
TL;DR: The results show that Skeeter Buster replicates specific population dynamics and spatial structure of Ae. (via Semantic Scholar)
Sources: Web Of Science, Crossref, NC State University Libraries, ORCID
Added: August 6, 2018

2011 journal article

Mechanistic Computational Model of Steroidogenesis in H295R Cells: Role of Oxysterols and Cell Proliferation to Improve Predictability of Biochemical Response to Endocrine Active Chemical-Metyrapone

TOXICOLOGICAL SCIENCES, 123(1), 80–93.

By: M. Breen n, M. Breen*, N. Terasaki, M. Yamazaki, A. Lloyd n & R. Conolly*

author keywords: endocrine disrupting chemicals; mechanistic computational model; in vitro toxicology; metyrapone; H295R cells; steroid biosynthesis
MeSH headings : Adrenocortical Carcinoma / drug therapy; Adrenocortical Carcinoma / metabolism; Cell Line, Tumor; Cell Proliferation / drug effects; Cell Survival / drug effects; Cholesterol / analogs & derivatives; Cholesterol / metabolism; Computational Biology / methods; Endocrine Disruptors / toxicity; Enzyme Inhibitors / toxicity; Humans; Metyrapone / toxicity; Models, Theoretical; Predictive Value of Tests; Steroids / metabolism
TL;DR: The improvement of the extended, more biologically realistic model to predict CHOL and steroid concentrations in H295R cells and medium and their dynamic biochemical response to the EAC, MET is demonstrated. (via Semantic Scholar)
Source: Web Of Science
Added: August 6, 2018

2011 journal article

Mechanistic computational model of steroidogenesis in H295R cells: role of oxysterols and cell proliferation to improve predictability of biochemical response to endocrine active chemical—metyrapone

Toxicological Sciences, 123(1), 80–93.

By: M. Breen, M. Breen, N. Terasaki, M. Yamazaki, A. Lloyd & R. Conolly

Source: ORCID
Added: April 8, 2020

2011 journal article

The wMel Wolbachia strain blocks dengue and invades caged Aedes aegypti populations

NATURE, 476(7361), 450–U101.

By: T. Walker*, P. Johnson*, L. Moreira*, I. Iturbe-Ormaetxe*, F. Frentiu*, C. McMeniman*, Y. Leong*, Y. Dong* ...

MeSH headings : Aedes / microbiology; Aedes / physiology; Aedes / virology; Animals; Dengue / prevention & control; Dengue / transmission; Dengue / virology; Dengue Virus / classification; Dengue Virus / isolation & purification; Dengue Virus / physiology; Female; Genetic Fitness; Humans; Insect Vectors / microbiology; Insect Vectors / physiology; Insect Vectors / virology; Male; Pest Control, Biological / methods; Reproduction / physiology; Saliva / virology; Wolbachia / classification; Wolbachia / physiology
TL;DR: The successful transinfection of A. aegypti with the avirulent wMel strain of Wolbachia, which induces the reproductive phenotype cytoplasmic incompatibility with minimal apparent fitness costs and high maternal transmission, providing optimal phenotypic effects for invasion is described. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
Source: Web Of Science
Added: August 6, 2018

2011 journal article

The wMel Wolbachia strain blocks dengue and invades caged Aedes aegypti populations

Nature, 476(7361), 450.

By: T. Walker, P. Johnson, L. Moreira, I. Iturbe-Ormaetxe, F. Frentiu, C. McMeniman, Y. Leong, Y. Dong ...

Source: ORCID
Added: April 8, 2020

2010 journal article

Gene-drive into insect populations with age and spatial structure: a theoretical assessment

Evolutionary Applications, 4(3), 415–428.

By: Y. Huang n, A. Lloyd n, M. Legros n & F. Gould n

author keywords: age and spatial structure; engineered underdominance; gene drive; release threshold; theoretical assessment
TL;DR: This study demonstrates that to determine the best method of spatial release, and the total number of engineered insects that must be released, it is important to take into account the age and sex of the released insects and spatial structure of the population. (via Semantic Scholar)
Sources: Web Of Science, Crossref, NC State University Libraries, ORCID
Added: August 6, 2018

2010 journal article

Medea selfish genetic elements as tools for altering traits of wild populations: A theoretical analysis.

Evolution, 65(4), 1149–1162.

By: C. Ward*, J. Su*, Y. Huang n, A. Lloyd n, F. Gould n & B. Hay*

author keywords: Dengue; introgression; malaria; maternal effect; mosquito; population replacement
MeSH headings : Animals; Culicidae / genetics; Disease Transmission, Infectious / prevention & control; Female; Fertility / genetics; Genetic Fitness / genetics; Genetics, Population; Genotype; Insect Vectors / genetics; Male; Models, Genetic; Repetitive Sequences, Nucleic Acid / genetics; Transgenes / genetics
TL;DR: This work derives equations that describe the conditions under which Medea elements with fitness costs will spread, and the equilibrium allele frequencies are achieved, and suggests that medea elements can drive population replacement under a wide range of conditions. (via Semantic Scholar)
Sources: Web Of Science, Crossref, NC State University Libraries, ORCID
Added: August 6, 2018

2010 journal article

Quantitative Models for Germination and Infection of Pseudoperonospora cubensis in Response to Temperature and Duration of Leaf Wetness

PHYTOPATHOLOGY, 100(9), 959–967.

By: L. Arauz*, K. Neufeld*, A. Lloyd* & P. Ojiambo*

author keywords: cucurbit downy mildew; disease forecasting
MeSH headings : Cucumis melo / microbiology; Oomycetes / physiology; Plant Diseases / microbiology; Spores / physiology; Temperature; Time Factors; Water
TL;DR: Three response surface models based on modified forms of the Weibull function were evaluated for their ability to describe germination of sporangia and infection in response to temperature and leaf wetness duration and were used to construct risk threshold charts that can be used to estimate the potential risk for infection based on observed or forecasted temperature and Leaf Wetness duration. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
2. Zero Hunger (Web of Science)
13. Climate Action (Web of Science)
Sources: Web Of Science, ORCID, NC State University Libraries
Added: August 6, 2018

2010 journal article

Resolving the impact of waiting time distributions on the persistence of measles

Journal of The Royal Society Interface, 7(45), 623–640.

By: A. Conlan*, P. Rohani*, A. Lloyd n, M. Keeling* & B. Grenfell*

author keywords: measles; stochasticity; persistence
MeSH headings : Communicable Diseases / epidemiology; Disease Outbreaks; England / epidemiology; Humans; Measles / epidemiology; Population; Population Density; Seasons; Wales / epidemiology
TL;DR: It is demonstrated that, no matter the choice of persistence measure, appropriately parametrized models of measles demonstrate similar predictions for the level of the CCS, and two new statistical measures of persitence are introduced—fade-outs post epidemic and fade-out post invasion. (via Semantic Scholar)
Sources: Web Of Science, Crossref, ORCID
Added: August 6, 2018

2010 journal article

Understanding Uncertainties in Model-Based Predictions of Aedes aegypti Population Dynamics

PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 4(9), e830.

By: C. Xu n, M. Legros n, F. Gould n & A. Lloyd n

Ed(s): S. O'Neill

MeSH headings : Aedes / growth & development; Animals; Disease Vectors; Female; Geography; Housing; Humans; Male; Models, Statistical; Peru; Population Density; Population Dynamics
TL;DR: This is the first systematic uncertainty analysis of a detailed Ae. (via Semantic Scholar)
Sources: Crossref, Web Of Science, NC State University Libraries, ORCID
Added: August 6, 2018

2009 journal article

A sensitivity matrix based methodology for inverse problem formulation

JOURNAL OF INVERSE AND ILL-POSED PROBLEMS, 17(6), 545–564.

By: A. Cintron-Arias*, H. Banks*, A. Capaldi* & A. Lloyd*

author keywords: Inverse problems; ordinary least squares; sensitivity matrix; Fisher Information matrix; parameter selection; standard errors
Sources: Web Of Science, ORCID
Added: August 6, 2018

2009 journal article

Density-Dependent Intraspecific Competition in the Larval Stage of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae): Revisiting the Current Paradigm

JOURNAL OF MEDICAL ENTOMOLOGY, 46(3), 409–419.

By: M. Legros n, A. Lloyd n, Y. Huang n & F. Gould n

author keywords: Aedes aegypti; density dependence; intraspecific competition; mathematical model; parameter estimation
MeSH headings : Aedes / growth & development; Aedes / physiology; Animals; Behavior, Animal; Competitive Behavior; Environment; Feeding Behavior; Larva / growth & development; Larva / physiology; Models, Theoretical; Population Density; Population Dynamics
TL;DR: It is emphasized that the characterization of density dependence in the larval stages of Ae. (via Semantic Scholar)
Sources: Web Of Science, NC State University Libraries, ORCID
Added: August 6, 2018

2009 journal article

Gene-drive in age-structured insect populations

Evolutionary Applications, 2(2), 143–159.

By: Y. Huang n, A. Lloyd n, M. Legros n & F. Gould n

author keywords: assortative mating; fitness cost; genetic control; mosquito; release threshold
TL;DR: It is found that models without age‐structure and mating details can substantially overestimate or underestimate the numbers of engineered insects that must be introduced into a wild population to achieve successful gene‐drive based on the Medea and engineered underdominance mechanisms. (via Semantic Scholar)
Sources: Web Of Science, Crossref, NC State University Libraries
Added: August 6, 2018

2009 journal article

Gene-drive in age-structured insect populations

Evolutionary Applications, 2(2), 143–159.

Source: ORCID
Added: April 8, 2020

2009 chapter

Sensitivity of Model-Based Epidemiological Parameter Estimation to Model Assumptions

In Mathematical and Statistical Estimation Approaches in Epidemiology (pp. 123–141).

By: A. Lloyd n

TL;DR: It is argued that if the authors lack detailed knowledge of the biology of the transmission process, parameter estimation should be accompanied by a structural sensitivity analysis, in addition to the standard statistical uncertainty analysis. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being (OpenAlex)
Sources: Crossref, ORCID
Added: July 20, 2019

2009 journal article

Skeeter Buster: A Stochastic, Spatially Explicit Modeling Tool for Studying Aedes aegypti Population Replacement and Population Suppression Strategies

PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 3(9), e508.

By: K. Magori n, M. Legros n, M. Puente n, D. Focks, T. Scott*, A. Lloyd n, F. Gould n

Ed(s): P. Kittayapong

TL;DR: A new modeling tool of Ae. (via Semantic Scholar)
Sources: Web Of Science, Crossref, NC State University Libraries, ORCID
Added: August 6, 2018

2009 chapter

Spatiotemporal dynamics of measles

In Spatial Ecology (pp. 251–272).

By: A. Lloyd* & L. Sattenspiel

Sources: Crossref, NC State University Libraries
Added: July 20, 2019

2009 article

Spatiotemporal dynamics of measles: synchrony and persistence in a disease metapopulation

Spatial Ecology, pp. 251–272.

By: A. Lloyd* & L. Sattenspiel

Source: ORCID
Added: April 8, 2020

2009 journal article

THE ESTIMATION OF THE EFFECTIVE REPRODUCTIVE NUMBER FROM DISEASE OUTBREAK DATA

MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES AND ENGINEERING, 6(2), 261–282.

By: A. Cintron-Arias*, C. Castillo-Chavez, L. Bettencourt, A. Lloyd* & H. Banks n

author keywords: effective reproductive number; basic reproduction ratio; reproduction number; R; R(t); R-0; parameter estimation; generalized least squares; residual plots
MeSH headings : Algorithms; Biometry / methods; Communicable Diseases / epidemiology; Disease Outbreaks / statistics & numerical data; Disease Transmission, Infectious / statistics & numerical data; Humans; Prevalence; Proportional Hazards Models
TL;DR: A single outbreak susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and corresponding estimation procedures for the effective reproductive number R(t) are considered and the estimation of the underlying SIR parameters with a generalized least squares estimation technique is discussed. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being (Web of Science; OpenAlex)
Sources: Web Of Science, ORCID
Added: August 6, 2018

2009 book

The geographic spread of infectious diseases: models and applications

In Princeton University Press. Princeton University Press.

By: L. Sattenspiel & A. Lloyd

Source: ORCID
Added: April 8, 2020

2008 journal article

A Killer-Rescue system for self-limiting gene drive of anti-pathogen constructs

PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, 275(1653), 2823–2829.

By: F. Gould n, Y. Huang n, M. Legros n & A. Lloyd n

Contributors: F. Gould n, Y. Huang n, M. Legros n & A. Lloyd n

author keywords: gene drive; selfish genes; Aedes; Anopheles; dengue; malaria
MeSH headings : Alleles; Animals; Culicidae / genetics; Culicidae / parasitology; Culicidae / virology; Disease Transmission, Infectious / prevention & control; Gene Frequency; Genes, Lethal; Genetic Engineering / methods; Genotype; Inheritance Patterns; Insect Vectors / genetics; Insect Vectors / parasitology; Insect Vectors / virology; Models, Genetic; Transgenes
TL;DR: A gene-drive mechanism that can be self-limiting over time and space, and is simpler to build is proposed, which involves one gene that codes for toxicity (killer) and a second that confers immunity to the toxic effects (rescue). (via Semantic Scholar)
Sources: Web Of Science, ORCID, NC State University Libraries
Added: August 6, 2018

2007 journal article

Introducing desirable transgenes into insect populations using Y-linked meiotic drive - A theoretical assessment

EVOLUTION, 61(4), 717–726.

By: Y. Huang n, K. Magori n, A. Lloyd n & F. Gould n

Contributors: Y. Huang n, K. Magori n, A. Lloyd n & F. Gould n

author keywords: autosomal modifier; sex-ratio distortion; transgene; X-chromosome responder; Y-chromosome driver
MeSH headings : Aedes / genetics; Alleles; Animals; Computer Simulation; Gene Transfer Techniques; Genetic Engineering / methods; Genetics, Population; Insect Vectors / genetics; Male; Meiosis; Models, Genetic; Parasitic Diseases / prevention & control; Transgenes / genetics
TL;DR: This work theoretically assesses the feasibility of introducing antipathogen genes into wild Aedes aegypti populations by using a naturally occurring meiotic drive system and uses mathematical models and computer simulations to determine how the post-introduction dynamics of the antipathogenic gene are affected by specific genetic characteristics of the system. (via Semantic Scholar)
Sources: Web Of Science, ORCID, NC State University Libraries
Added: August 6, 2018

2007 journal article

Introducing transgenes into insect populations using combined gene-drive strategies: Modeling and analysis

INSECT BIOCHEMISTRY AND MOLECULAR BIOLOGY, 37(10), 1054–1063.

By: Y. Huang n, K. Magori n, A. Lloyd n & F. Gould n

author keywords: insect vectors; anti-pathogen transgene; gene-drive; combined strategy; release threshold; theoretical assessment
MeSH headings : Animals; Animals, Genetically Modified; Computer Simulation; Female; Insect Control; Insect Vectors / genetics; Male; Meiosis / genetics; Models, Genetic; Transgenes; Wolbachia / genetics
TL;DR: Under some conditions, the combination of EU and MD results in a more efficient transgene-drive strategy than either mechanism alone, and this combined strategy could drive the transgenes to stable fixation and would require fewer released insects than EU alone. (via Semantic Scholar)
Sources: Web Of Science, NC State University Libraries, ORCID
Added: August 6, 2018

2007 chapter

Network models in epidemiology: an overview

In Complex Population Dynamics (pp. 189–214).

By: A. Lloyd n & S. Valeika*

TL;DR: This paper focuses on threshold conditions, which describe when invasion and persistence of an infection is possible and the ‘mass-action’ description of transmission, which will be discussed in detail below. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being (OpenAlex)
Sources: Crossref, ORCID
Added: July 20, 2019

2007 journal article

Stochastic and deterministic models for agricultural production networks

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 4(3), 373–402.

By: P. Bai, H. Banks*, S. Dediu*, A. Govan, M. Last, A. Lloyd*, H. Nguyen*, M. Olufsen*, G. Rempala, B. Slenning n

Contributors: P. Bai, H. Banks*, S. Dediu*, A. Govan, M. Last, A. Lloyd*, H. Nguyen*, M. Olufsen*, G. Rempala, B. Slenning n

MeSH headings : Animal Husbandry / methods; Animal Husbandry / organization & administration; Animals; Animals, Domestic; Computer Simulation; Models, Biological; Models, Organizational; Models, Statistical; Stochastic Processes; Swine / growth & development
TL;DR: An approach to modeling the impact of disturbances in an agricultural production network and its approximate deterministic model for averages over sample paths of the stochastic system are presented. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
2. Zero Hunger (OpenAlex)
Sources: NC State University Libraries, ORCID, NC State University Libraries
Added: August 6, 2018

2007 journal article

Stochasticity and heterogeneity in host-vector models

JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY INTERFACE, 4(16), 851–863.

By: A. Lloyd n, J. Zhang n & A. Root n

Contributors: A. Lloyd n, J. Zhang n & A. Root n

author keywords: vector-borne infection; multi-group model; heterogeneity; stochasticity; branching process; moment equations
MeSH headings : Animals; Chickens / parasitology; Coccidiosis / parasitology; Coccidiosis / veterinary; Disease Vectors; Eimeria / physiology; Models, Biological; Poultry Diseases / parasitology; Stochastic Processes; Time Factors
TL;DR: The use of analytic techniques to assess the impact of demographic stochasticity in both well-mixed and heterogeneous settings are discussed, providing insight into the likelihood of Stochastic extinction. (via Semantic Scholar)
Sources: Web Of Science, ORCID, NC State University Libraries
Added: August 6, 2018

2006 journal article

Book Review

Journal of Difference Equations and Applications, 12(5), 501–502.

By: A. Lloyd n

TL;DR: An introduction to the use of generating functions as a means of solving linear difference equations, aimed at undergraduate or graduate students in statistics, biostatistics, operations research or epidemiology, with a fairly minimal background level of knowledge. (via Semantic Scholar)
Sources: Crossref, NC State University Libraries
Added: December 7, 2020

2006 chapter

Drug resistance in acute viral infections: Rhinovirus as a case study

In Disease Evolution (pp. 193–212).

By: A. Lloyd* & D. Wodarz

TL;DR: It is seen that an efficient immune response can reduce the likelihood of the emergence of resistant virus, and resistance poses more of a problem for chronic infections in which there is significant immune impairment than for acute infections. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being (OpenAlex)
Sources: Crossref, NC State University Libraries
Added: July 20, 2019

2006 other

Infection dynamics on small-world networks

By: A. Lloyd*, S. Valeika & A. Cintrón-Arias

Sources: Crossref, NC State University Libraries
Added: July 20, 2019

2006 chapter

Infection dynamics on small-world networks

In Contemporary Mathematics (Vol. 410, pp. 209–234).

By: A. Lloyd*, S. Valeika & A. Cintrón-Arias

Source: ORCID
Added: April 8, 2020

2004 journal article

Estimating variability in models for recurrent epidemics: assessing the use of moment closure techniques

THEORETICAL POPULATION BIOLOGY, 65(1), 49–65.

By: A. Lloyd n

author keywords: demographic stochasticity; moment closure; epidemic models; nonlinear dynamics
MeSH headings : Demography; Disease Outbreaks; Humans; Models, Theoretical; Population Dynamics; Recurrence; Seasons; Stochastic Processes
TL;DR: This study assesses and compares the use of two moment closure approximations to estimate the variability seen about the average behavior of stochastic models for the recurrent epidemics seen in childhood diseases. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being (Web of Science; OpenAlex)
Sources: Web Of Science, NC State University Libraries
Added: August 6, 2018

2004 journal article

Estimating variability in models for recurrent epidemics: assessing the use of moment closure techniques

Theoretical Population Biology, 65(1), 49–65.

By: A. Lloyd n

UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being (OpenAlex)
Source: ORCID
Added: April 8, 2020

2004 journal article

Immune responses and the emergence of drug-resistant virus strains in vivo

PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, 271(1544), 1101–1109.

By: D. Wodarz* & A. Lloyd n

author keywords: mathematical models; drug resistance; acute infection; HIV; rhinoviruses; common cold
MeSH headings : Drug Resistance, Viral / immunology; HIV Infections / drug therapy; HIV Infections / virology; HIV-1 / genetics; HIV-1 / physiology; Humans; Immunity; Models, Immunological; Species Specificity
TL;DR: A model that explores the role of immune responses in the rise of drug–resistant mutants in vivo finds that drug resistance is unlikely to be a problem if immune responses are maintained above a threshold level during therapy. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being (Web of Science; OpenAlex)
Sources: Web Of Science, ORCID
Added: August 6, 2018

2004 journal article

Polymorphism in the interleukin-10 promoter affects both provirus load and the risk of human T lymphotropic virus type I-associated myelopathy/tropical spastic paraparesis

JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES, 190(7), 1279–1285.

By: A. Sabouri*, M. Saito*, A. Lloyd*, A. Vine*, A. Witkover*, Y. Furukawa*, S. Izumo*, K. Arimura* ...

MeSH headings : Alleles; Gene Products, tax / physiology; Human T-lymphotropic virus 1 / genetics; Interleukin-10 / genetics; Paraparesis, Tropical Spastic / etiology; Paraparesis, Tropical Spastic / genetics; Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide; Promoter Regions, Genetic; Proviruses / isolation & purification; Risk; Viral Load
Sources: Web Of Science, NC State University Libraries, ORCID
Added: August 6, 2018

2004 article

Spatiotemporal dynamics of epidemics: synchrony in metapopulation models

MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES, Vol. 188, pp. 1–16.

By: A. Lloyd n & V. Jansen*

author keywords: epidemiological model; metapopulation; spatial dynamics; linear stability analysis
MeSH headings : Communicable Diseases / transmission; Disease Outbreaks; Epidemiologic Methods; Humans; Models, Biological; Population Dynamics
TL;DR: The linear stability of spatially homogeneous solutions of multi-patch models is studied using an extension of an analysis technique previously described for a population setting in which individuals migrate between patches according to a simple linear term. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being (Web of Science; OpenAlex)
Sources: Web Of Science, NC State University Libraries
Added: August 6, 2018

2004 journal article

Spatiotemporal dynamics of epidemics: synchrony in metapopulation models

Mathematical Biosciences, 188(1-2), 1–16.

By: A. Lloyd n & V. Jansen*

UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being (OpenAlex)
Source: ORCID
Added: April 8, 2020

2002 journal article

A Model for Estimating Total Parasite Load in Falciparum Malaria Patients

Journal of Theoretical Biology, 217(2), 137–148.

By: M. Gravenor*, A. Lloyd*, P. Kremsner*, M. Missinou*, M. English*, K. Marsh*, D. Kwiatkowski*

MeSH headings : Animals; Erythrocytes / parasitology; Humans; Life Cycle Stages; Malaria, Falciparum / drug therapy; Malaria, Falciparum / parasitology; Models, Biological; Parasitemia; Plasmodium falciparum / physiology; Population Density
TL;DR: Even given detailed data on individual parasitaemia, estimates of sequestered numbers may be difficult to obtain, but if data on individuals undergoing similar therapy are collected at equal time intervals, some of these problems may be overcome by estimating specific parameters over groups of patients. (via Semantic Scholar)
Sources: Crossref, ORCID
Added: July 20, 2019

2002 journal article

Polygenic control of human T lymphotropic virus type I (HTLV-I) provirus load and the risk of HTLV-I-associated myelopathy/tropical spastic paraparesis

JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES, 186(7), 932–939.

By: A. Vine, A. Witkover, A. Lloyd*, K. Jeffery, A. Siddiqui, S. Marshall*, M. Bunce*, N. Eiraku* ...

Contributors: A. Vine, A. Witkover, A. Lloyd*, K. Jeffery, A. Siddiqui, S. Marshall*, M. Bunce*, N. Eiraku* ...

MeSH headings : Alleles; Carrier State / immunology; Carrier State / virology; Chemokine CXCL12; Chemokines, CXC / genetics; Cohort Studies; Genetic Predisposition to Disease; HLA-A Antigens / genetics; HLA-C Antigens / genetics; Human T-lymphotropic virus 1 / isolation & purification; Humans; Interleukin-15 / genetics; Japan; Multifactorial Inheritance; Paraparesis, Tropical Spastic / genetics; Paraparesis, Tropical Spastic / immunology; Paraparesis, Tropical Spastic / virology; Promoter Regions, Genetic; Proviruses / isolation & purification; Tumor Necrosis Factor-alpha / genetics; Viral Load
TL;DR: A population association study of 229 patients with HAM/TSP and 202 healthy carriers of HTLV-I in southern Japan showed that this outcome of HTlv-I infection and the HT LV-I provirus load are under polygenic control. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being (OpenAlex)
Sources: Web Of Science, ORCID, NC State University Libraries
Added: August 6, 2018

2001 journal article

Destabilization of epidemic models with the inclusion of realistic distributions of infectious periods

Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences, 268(1470), 985–993.

By: A. Lloyd*

author keywords: epidemic model; infectious period distribution; seasonally forced dynamics
MeSH headings : Child; Epidemiologic Methods; Humans; Measles / epidemiology; Models, Statistical; Periodicity; Probability; Seasons; Virus Diseases / epidemiology; Virus Diseases / transmission
TL;DR: This study illustrates how detailed dynamical properties of a model may depend in an important way on the assumptions made in the formulation of the model. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being (OpenAlex)
Sources: Crossref, ORCID
Added: July 27, 2019

2001 journal article

Epidemiology: How Viruses Spread Among Computers and People

Science, 292(5520), 1316–1317.

By: A. Lloyd* & R. May*

Contributors: A. Lloyd* & R. May*

MeSH headings : Animals; Computers; Disease Susceptibility; Humans; Internet; Models, Biological; Neural Networks, Computer; Social Environment; Virus Diseases / epidemiology; Virus Diseases / prevention & control; Virus Diseases / transmission; Virus Physiological Phenomena
TL;DR: In their Perspective, Lloyd and May discuss the similarities and differences between the dynamics of computer viruses and infections of human and other populations. (via Semantic Scholar)
Sources: ORCID, Crossref, NC State University Libraries
Added: April 8, 2020

2001 journal article

Infection dynamics on scale-free networks

Physical Review E, 64(6), 066112.

By: R. May* & A. Lloyd*

TL;DR: Approximate expressions for the final size of an epidemic in an infinite closed population and for the dependence of infection probability on an individual's degree of connectivity within the population are derived. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being (OpenAlex)
Sources: Crossref, NC State University Libraries
Added: July 27, 2019

2001 journal article

Infection dynamics on scale-free networks

Physical Review E, 64(6).

By: R. May* & A. Lloyd*

UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being (OpenAlex)
Source: ORCID
Added: February 22, 2021

2001 journal article

Realistic Distributions of Infectious Periods in Epidemic Models: Changing Patterns of Persistence and Dynamics

Theoretical Population Biology, 60(1), 59–71.

By: A. Lloyd*

MeSH headings : Child; Epidemiologic Studies; Humans; Incidence; Models, Theoretical; Population Density; Population Dynamics; Seasons; Virus Diseases / epidemiology
TL;DR: The effects of including more realistic descriptions of the infectious period within SIR (susceptible/infectious/recovered) models are studied and less dispersed distributions are seen to have two important epidemiological consequences. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being (OpenAlex)
Sources: Crossref, ORCID, NC State University Libraries
Added: July 27, 2019

2001 journal article

Realistic Distributions of Infectious Periods in Epidemic Models: Changing Patterns of Persistence and Dynamics

Theoretical Population Biology, 60(1), 59–71.

By: A. Lloyd*

UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being (OpenAlex)
Source: ORCID
Added: February 22, 2021

2001 journal article

The dependence of viral parameter estimates on the assumed viral life cycle: limitations of studies of viral load data

Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences, 268(1469), 847–854.

By: A. Lloyd*

author keywords: virus dynamics; parameter estimation; basic reproductive number; cell life span; non-exponential distribution
MeSH headings : Antiviral Agents / pharmacology; Humans; Models, Biological; Virus Diseases / drug therapy; Virus Diseases / virology; Virus Physiological Phenomena; Virus Replication; Viruses / drug effects; Viruses / growth & development
TL;DR: Investigating how parameter estimates obtained by fitting mathematical models to infectious disease data depend on the assumptions made concerning the viral life cycle finds that estimates of the basic reproductive number obtained using viral load data collected during the initial stages of infection can depend quite sensitively on these assumptions. (via Semantic Scholar)
Sources: Crossref, ORCID
Added: July 27, 2019

2000 journal article

Direct quantitation of rapid elimination of viral antigen-positive lymphocytes by antiviral CD8+ T cellsin vivo

European Journal of Immunology, 30(5), 1356–1363.

By: W. Barchet*, S. Oehen*, P. Klenerman*, D. Wodarz*, G. Bocharov*, A. Lloyd*, M. Nowak*, H. Hengartner*, R. Zinkernagel*, S. Ehl*

Contributors: W. Barchet*, S. Oehen*, P. Klenerman*, D. Wodarz*, G. Bocharov*, A. Lloyd*, M. Nowak*, H. Hengartner*, R. Zinkernagel*, S. Ehl*

author keywords: CD8(+) T cell; virus; cytotoxicity; perforin; CD95
TL;DR: It is illustrated how effectively CD8+ T cell‐mediated elimination of target cells can potentially contribute to virus control and immunosuppression for viruses with a particular tropism for lymphocytes, such as Epstein‐Barr virus or HIV. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being (OpenAlex)
Sources: ORCID, Crossref, NC State University Libraries
Added: April 8, 2020

2000 journal article

Fluctuations in HIV-1 Viral Load Are Correlated to CD4+ T-Lymphocyte Count During the Natural Course of Infection

JAIDS Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes, 23(5), 375–379.

By: J. Masel, R. Arnaout, T. O'Brien, J. Goedert & A. Lloyd*

Contributors: J. Masel, R. Arnaout, . TR O'Brien, J. Goedert & A. Lloyd*

TL;DR: Using longitudinal data, whether fluctuations in viral load can be better explained by changes in CD4 + T-cell count than by a set point or trend of exponential growth was tested. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being (OpenAlex)
Sources: Crossref, ORCID, NC State University Libraries
Added: July 27, 2019

2000 journal article

Local stability analysis of spatially homogeneous solutions of multi-patch systems

Journal of Mathematical Biology, 41(3), 232–252.

By: V. Jansen* & A. Lloyd*

author keywords: diffusive instability; symmetry breaking; metapopulation model; coupled map lattice
MeSH headings : Animals; Mathematics; Models, Biological; Population Dynamics; Predatory Behavior
TL;DR: A bookkeeping scheme is presented that facilitates stability analyses by reducing the analysis of a k-species, n-patch system to that of n uncoupled k-dimensional single-patch systems and is used to analyse the stability of the equilibrium of a predator–prey system with a pool of dispersers and of the periodic solutions of the spatial Lotka–Volterra model. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
15. Life on Land (OpenAlex)
Sources: Crossref, ORCID
Added: July 27, 2019

2000 journal article

The Influence of HLA Class I Alleles and Heterozygosity on the Outcome of Human T Cell Lymphotropic Virus Type I Infection

The Journal of Immunology, 165(12), 7278–7284.

By: K. Jeffery, A. Siddiqui, M. Bunce*, A. Lloyd*, A. Vine, A. Witkover, S. Izumo, K. Usuku* ...

MeSH headings : Alleles; Disease Progression; Female; Genes, MHC Class I / immunology; Genetic Carrier Screening; Genetic Predisposition to Disease / etiology; HLA Antigens / genetics; HLA-A2 Antigen / genetics; HLA-B Antigens / genetics; HLA-C Antigens / genetics; Human T-lymphotropic virus 1 / immunology; Humans; Linkage Disequilibrium / immunology; Paraparesis, Tropical Spastic / etiology; Paraparesis, Tropical Spastic / genetics; Paraparesis, Tropical Spastic / immunology; Paraparesis, Tropical Spastic / virology; Proviruses / immunology; Risk Factors; Viral Load
TL;DR: Evidence is presented that HLA-Cw*08 was also associated with disease protection and with a lower provirus load in healthy carriers of HTLV-I and this results are consistent with the proposal that a strong class I-restricted CTL response to HT LVI reduces the proviral load and hence the risk of disease. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being (OpenAlex)
Sources: Crossref, ORCID
Added: July 27, 2019

1999 journal article

A simple relationship between viral load and survival time in HIV-1 infection

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 96(20), 11549–11553.

By: R. Arnaout*, A. Lloyd*, T. O'Brien*, J. Goedert*, J. Leonard* & M. Nowak*

author keywords: prognosis; CD4(+) cell count; CD4(+) cell decline; antiviral therapy; statistical analysis
MeSH headings : Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / mortality; Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / virology; CD4 Lymphocyte Count; HIV-1 / isolation & purification; Humans; Male; Time Factors
TL;DR: This work quantitates the previously reported relationship between viral load and survival time, introduces the concept of viral constant, and presents evidence that this quantity is conserved across patients, and explores the immunopathological implications of this finding. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being (OpenAlex)
Sources: Crossref, ORCID
Added: July 28, 2019

1999 journal article

Dynamics of Macrophage and T Cell Infection by HIV

Journal of Theoretical Biology, 196(1), 101–113.

MeSH headings : CD4-Positive T-Lymphocytes / virology; HIV / physiology; HIV Infections / immunology; HIV Infections / virology; Humans; Lymphocyte Activation; Macrophages / virology; Models, Biological; Receptors, CCR5; Receptors, CXCR4; T-Lymphocytes, Cytotoxic / immunology; Virus Integration; Virus Replication
TL;DR: Mathematical models predict that macrophage infection may be essential for the successful establishment of HIV in the primary phase of the infection, paving the way for the rise of exclusively T cell tropic strains using the CXCR4-coreceptor. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being (OpenAlex)
Sources: Crossref, ORCID, NC State University Libraries
Added: July 28, 2019

1999 journal article

HLA alleles determine human T-lymphotropic virus-I (HTLV-I) proviral load and the risk of HTLV-I-associated myelopathy

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 96(7), 3848–3853.

By: K. Jeffery*, K. Usuku*, S. Hall*, W. Matsumoto*, G. Taylor*, J. Procter*, M. Bunce*, G. Ogg* ...

MeSH headings : Alleles; Genes, MHC Class I; Genes, MHC Class II; Genetic Predisposition to Disease / immunology; HLA-A Antigens / genetics; HLA-B Antigens / genetics; HLA-DR Antigens / genetics; HLA-DRB1 Chains; HTLV-I Infections / blood; HTLV-I Infections / genetics; HTLV-I Infections / immunology; Histocompatibility Testing; Human T-lymphotropic virus 1 / immunology; Human T-lymphotropic virus 1 / isolation & purification; Humans; Paraparesis, Tropical Spastic / blood; Paraparesis, Tropical Spastic / genetics; Paraparesis, Tropical Spastic / immunology; Risk Factors; Viral Load
TL;DR: It is shown that, after infection with HTLV-I, the class I allele HLA-A*02 halves the odds of HAM/TSP, implying that an efficient antiviral CTL response can reduce virus load and so prevent disease in persistent virus infections. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being (OpenAlex)
Source: Crossref
Added: July 28, 2019

1999 journal article

HLA alleles determine human T-lymphotropic virus-I (HTLV-I) proviral load and the risk of HTLV-I-associated myelopathy

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 96(7), 3848–3853.

By: K. Jeffery, K. Usuku, S. Hall, W. Matsumoto, G. Taylor, J. Procter, M. Bunce, G. Ogg ...

Source: ORCID
Added: April 8, 2020

1999 journal article

On the origins of the Lotka-Volterra Equations

The Bulletin of the Ecological Society of America, 80(3), 205–206.

By: D. Haydon & A. Lloyd

Sources: NC State University Libraries, ORCID
Added: July 28, 2019

1999 journal article

Synchronicity, chaos and population cycles: spatial coherence in an uncertain world

Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 14(11), 417–418.

By: A. Lloyd* & R. May*

TL;DR: A new paper by Blasius and co-workers uses recent developments in nonlinear dynamics to bring new theoretical insights into the ecological discussion of synchrony as well as introducing powerful new techniques for the study of synchronY in field data. (via Semantic Scholar)
Sources: Crossref, ORCID
Added: July 27, 2019

1998 journal article

Reply to: Models for the in-host dynamics of malaria revisited: errors in some basic models lead to large overestimates of growth rates

PARASITOLOGY, 117(5), 409–410.

By: M. Gravenor & A. Lloyd*

TL;DR: In the accompanying manuscript Saul (1998) points out that a model of within-host malaria population dynamics (Anderson, May & Gupta, 1989) can exhibit unrealistically large growth rates, but this error can be avoided by replacing the parameter r, which is the number of merozoites produced by each parasite at schizogony, with the value ln (r)+1. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being (OpenAlex)
Sources: Web Of Science, ORCID
Added: August 6, 2018

1997 journal article

Presence of an inducible HIV-1 latent reservoir during highly active antiretroviral therapy

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 94(24), 13193–13197.

By: T. Chun*, L. Stuyver*, S. Mizell*, L. Ehler*, J. Mican*, M. Baseler*, A. Lloyd*, M. Nowak*, A. Fauci*

MeSH headings : Anti-HIV Agents / therapeutic use; CD4-Positive T-Lymphocytes / virology; DNA, Viral; Giant Cells; HIV Infections / drug therapy; HIV Infections / virology; HIV-1 / genetics; HIV-1 / isolation & purification; HIV-1 / physiology; Humans; Virus Latency; Virus Replication
TL;DR: Highly purified CD4+ T cells from patients receiving HAART with an average treatment time of 10 months and with undetectable plasma viremia carried integrated proviral DNA and were capable of producing infectious virus upon cellular activation in vitro, suggesting persistent active virus replication in vivo. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being (OpenAlex)
Sources: Crossref, ORCID
Added: July 28, 2019

1997 journal article

The extent of early viral replication is a critical determinant of the natural history of simian immunodeficiency virus infection

Journal of Virology, 71(12), 9508–9514.

By: J. Lifson, M. Nowak, S. Goldstein, J. Rossio, A. Kinter, G. Vasquez, T. Wiltrout, C. Brown ...

Source: NC State University Libraries
Added: July 10, 2019

1997 journal article

The extent of early viral replication is a critical determinant of the natural history of simian immunodeficiency virus infection.

Journal of Virology, 71(12), 9508–9514.

By: J. Lifson, M. Nowak, S. Goldstein, J. Rossio, A. Kinter, G. Vasquez, T. Wiltrout, C. Brown ...

Source: ORCID
Added: April 8, 2020

1997 journal article

Viral dynamics of primary viremia and antiretroviral therapy in simian immunodeficiency virus infection

Journal of Virology, 71(10), 7518–7525.

By: M. Nowak, A. Lloyd, G. Vasquez, T. Wiltrout, L. Wahl, N. Bischofberger, J. Williams, A. Kinter ...

Sources: NC State University Libraries, ORCID
Added: July 28, 2019

1996 journal article

Spatial Heterogeneity in Epidemic Models

Journal of Theoretical Biology, 179(1), 1–11.

By: A. Lloyd* & R. May*

MeSH headings : Child; Disease Outbreaks; Epidemiologic Methods; Humans; Models, Statistical; Nonlinear Dynamics; Seasons
TL;DR: It is demonstrated that the inclusion of seasonal forcing in deterministic models can lead to the maintenance of phase differences between patches, and chaotic solutions are observed for weaker seasonal forcing; these solutions have a more realistic minimum number of infectives. (via Semantic Scholar)
UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being (OpenAlex)
Sources: Crossref, ORCID, NC State University Libraries
Added: July 28, 2019

1996 journal article

Spatial Heterogeneity in Epidemic Models

Journal of Theoretical Biology, 179(1), 1–11.

By: A. Lloyd* & R. May*

UN Sustainable Development Goal Categories
3. Good Health and Well-being (OpenAlex)
Source: ORCID
Added: April 8, 2020

1995 journal article

Chaos : Its significance and detection in biology

Biological Rhythm Research, 26(2), 233–252.

By: A. Lloyd* & D. Lloyd*

Contributors: A. Lloyd* & D. Lloyd*

author keywords: CHAOS; DETERMINISTIC SYSTEMS; NOISE; STOCHASTIC PROCESSES; APERIODIC; QUASI-PERIODIC; ARRYTHMIC; CIRCADIAN; TIME SERIES ANALYSIS
TL;DR: The idea of deterministic chaos is outlined and some biological examples where chaos is believed to play a part are discussed, and the method of surrogate data is discussed, which can help avoid fallacious results. (via Semantic Scholar)
Sources: Crossref, ORCID, NC State University Libraries
Added: July 28, 2019

1995 journal article

Computing Bouts of the Prisoner's Dilemma

Scientific American, 272(6), 110–115.

By: A. Lloyd*

Sources: Crossref, NC State University Libraries
Added: July 28, 2019

1995 journal article

The coupled logistic map: a simple model for the effects of spatial heterogeneity on population dynamics

Journal of Theoretical Biology, 173(3), 217–230.

By: A. Lloyd*