@article{duehl_bishir_hain_2011, title={Predicting County-Level Southern Pine Beetle Outbreaks From Neighborhood Patterns}, volume={40}, ISSN={["0046-225X"]}, DOI={10.1603/en08275}, abstractNote={ABSTRACT The southern pine beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann, Coleoptera: Curculionidae) is the most destructive insect in southern forests. States have kept county-level records on the locations of beetle outbreaks for the past 50 yr. This study determined how accurately patterns of county-level infestations in preceding years could predict infestation o ccurrence in the current year and if there were emergent patterns that correlated strongly with beetle outbreaks. A variety of methods were tested as infestation predictors, including quantification of either the exact locations of infested grid cells during one or two preceding years, or the neighborhood infestation intensity (number of infested cells in a neighborhood) in these years. The methods had similar predictive abilities, but the simpler methods performed somewhat better than the more complex ones. The factors most correlated with infestations in future years were infestation in the current year and the number of surrounding counties that were infested. Infestation history helped to predict the probability of future infestations in a region, but county-level patterns alone left much of the year-to-year variability unexplained.}, number={2}, journal={ENVIRONMENTAL ENTOMOLOGY}, author={Duehl, Adrian and Bishir, John and Hain, Fred P.}, year={2011}, month={Apr}, pages={273–280} }
 @article{bishir_yanchuk_russell_polsson_2008, title={BCWEEVIL: A simulation model of the joint population dynamics between spruce weevil and Sitka spruce, over the lifetime of a plantation}, volume={5}, ISSN={["1476-9840"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.ecocom.2008.05.001}, abstractNote={The spruce terminal weevil Pissodes strobi (Peck) is a major pest in western spruces, attacking trees of all ages beyond the juvenile stage, killing the leader and causing tree distortion. This paper describes a computer simulation model of the joint population dynamics within this tree/pest system, over the lifetime of a plantation, and is combined with the Province of British Columbia's Tree and Stand Simulator (TASS) to drive individual tree growth and stand establishment and development. The model differs from current models of this system, and of other similar systems, in two important ways: (1) it simulates the entire life of a stand, from planting until harvest, and (2) it is based on the underlying biological processes that govern behavior of individual weevils on and in each tree. Each model simulation begins by planting a stand using tree materials from seed or clonal hedge orchards, choosing trees either individually and independently or in groups represented as clones or families. Stand growth and mortality are advanced through a juvenile period, after which weevils appear in the stand. From this time until harvest, the model simulates daily changes in the weevil populations on each tree, tracking mortality, oviposition, and juvenile maturation and emergence, as well as weevil movement from tree to tree. Once a year, the code projects tree mortality and growth, taking into account within-stand competition and damage to leaders caused by weevil attacks. At harvest, the model computes an estimate of the merchantable timber produced by the stand. As illustrations of model output, we present (1) simulated average numbers of adult and juvenile weevils in stands generated using materials from seed orchards, both throughout a single season and also through the years from stand planting until harvest; and (2) the differential effect of weevil damage on two tree genotypes, one resistant and one susceptible, in a stand composed of adjacent clonal blocks. The results of model simulations are in agreement with some of the population dynamics statistics observed in plantations, suggesting that the model reflects biological realism and can be used as a research or management tool.}, number={3}, journal={ECOLOGICAL COMPLEXITY}, author={Bishir, John and Yanchuk, Alvin D. and Russell, John H. and Polsson, Ken R.}, year={2008}, month={Sep}, pages={260–271} }
 @article{yanchuk_bishir_russell_polsson_2006, title={Variation in volume production through clonal deployment: Results from a simulation model to minimize risk for both a currently known and unknown future pest}, volume={55}, ISSN={["2509-8934"]}, DOI={10.1515/sg-2006-0005}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={1}, journal={SILVAE GENETICA}, author={Yanchuk, A. D. and Bishir, J. and Russell, J. H. and Polsson, K. R.}, year={2006}, pages={25–37} }
 @article{bishir_roberds_strom_2004, title={On-bark behavior of Dendroctonus frontalis: a Markov chain analysis}, volume={17}, ISSN={["0892-7553"]}, DOI={10.1023/B:JOIR.0000031531.07035.10}, number={3}, journal={JOURNAL OF INSECT BEHAVIOR}, author={Bishir, J and Roberds, JH and Strom, BL}, year={2004}, month={May}, pages={281–301} }
 @article{bishir_roberds_1999, title={On numbers of clones needed for managing risks in clonal forestry}, volume={6}, number={3}, journal={Forest Genetics}, author={Bishir, J. and Roberds, J. H.}, year={1999}, pages={149} }
 @article{bishir_roberds_1997, title={Limit theorems and a general framework for risk analysis in clonal forestry}, volume={142}, ISSN={["0025-5564"]}, DOI={10.1016/S0025-5564(96)00184-8}, abstractNote={Use of clonally propagated plantings in reforestation offers management advantages of phenotypic uniformity and high yields. Disadvantages include low genetic diversity and the possibility that the clone or clones chosen are particularly susceptible to attack by an insect or pathogen unforeseen as a problem at the time of clonal selection. In this paper, we continue consideration of the problem of choosing an optimal number of clones to minimize the risk of plantation failure. We present an analysis in which risk of failure for a plantation is represented by the probability that the proportion, S, of ramets that survive until harvest is less than or equal to a prescribed value. Our approach includes most earlier treatments as special cases. We show that the proportion S converges in distribution and, furthermore, that, under general conditions, a moderate number of clones, usually no more than 20 to 40 and often fewer, provides equivalent or better protection against catastrophic loss than does a large number of clones.}, number={1}, journal={MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES}, author={Bishir, J and Roberds, J}, year={1997}, month={May}, pages={1–11} }
 @article{roberds_bishir_1997, title={Risk analyses in clonal forestry}, volume={27}, ISSN={["0045-5067"]}, DOI={10.1139/x96-202}, abstractNote={The number of clones to use in plantations is an important problem that must be addressed by practitioners of clonal forestry because of productivity and forest health considerations. This problem has been analyzed from a number of perspectives, but analyses based upon risk of plantation failure have provided special insight about effects produced by an increase in numbers of clones. In this paper, we describe alternative models and methods that have been proposed to investigate the effect of number of clones on risk of plantation failure following an unforeseen catastrophic event. Properties of these models are reviewed and conclusions resulting from the analysis of each model are given. Results from these analyses and recently developed theory indicate that use of 30 to 40 unrelated clones in plantations provides protection against catastrophic failure roughly equivalent to the use of large numbers of unrelated clones. A detailed description of the recently introduced time-to-failure model is also presented, and several examples that illustrate properties of this model are discussed. Finally, some implications regarding the development of breeding populations are identified and explored. Resume : La problOmatique du nombre de clones utilisOs dans les plantations clonales doit Œtre abordOe par les praticiens de la foresterie clonale en raison des implications quielle peut avoir pour la productivitO et la santO des forŒts. Ce problme a OtO OtudiO sous de nombreux angles, mais il siest avOrO que liapproche basOe sur le risque diOchec de plantation a permis de rOvOler les effets rOsultant diune augmentation du nombre de clones utilisOs. Les auteurs de liOtude font la description des mOthodes et modles alternatifs qui ont OtO proposOs pour Otudier lieffet du nombre de clones sur le risque diOchec de plantation suite ‡ un OvOnement catastrophique imprOvisible. Les auteurs prOsentent la revue des caractOristiques ainsi que les conclusions dOcoulant de lianalyse de chacun de ces modles. Les rOsultats de cette analyse ainsi que les considOrations thOoriques dOveloppOes rOcemment indiquent que liutilisation de 30 ‡ 40 clones non apparentOs par plantation procure une protection contre des Ochecs catastrophiques qui est ‡ peu prs Oquivalente ‡ celle qui dOcoule de liutilisation diun grand nombre de clones non apparentOs. Une description dOtaillOe du modle rOcent de «dOlai diOchec» est prOsentOe. Quelques exemples illustrant les caractOristiques de ce modle sont Ogalement discutOs. Enfin, certaines implications relatives au dOveloppement des populations diOlevage sont identifiOes et discutOes. (Traduit par la ROdaction)}, number={3}, journal={CANADIAN JOURNAL OF FOREST RESEARCH-REVUE CANADIENNE DE RECHERCHE FORESTIERE}, author={Roberds, JH and Bishir, JW}, year={1997}, month={Mar}, pages={425–432} }