@article{you_goodwin_guney_2023, title={A semi-parametric study on dynamic linkages among international real interest rates}, volume={86}, ISSN={["1873-8036"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.iref.2023.03.015}, abstractNote={Linkages between real interest rates among countries have been extensively investigated in the literature as it has important policy implications for the monetary authorities in the policy making process. Even in a perfectly efficient international interest rate market, equal real interest rates are not expected because of the existence of transaction costs and hence nonlinear approaches that take transactions costs into account are necessary to evaluate the relationship between real interest rates. A semi-parametric, generalized additive vector autoregressive models were applied to a consideration of real interest rate linkages among the US, the UK, Japan, Switzerland and the Eurozone. Through nonlinearity tests, we find strong evidence that nonlinearities substantially characterize real interest rate linkages. Generalized impulse response functions are utilized to investigate the dynamics of real interest rates after shocks of different sizes, directions, and histories. All marginal effects from four models backed by different economic theories and generalized impulse responses from vector error correction models support the real interest rate parity hypothesis which indicates a high degree of integration in capital markets. The results provide evidence that the conventional tests which rely on linearity assumptions may lead to misleading inferences and local monetary policy makers can only affect the real interest rates when the international financial markets are close to the equilibrium; the efforts of the policy makers may be offset by the arbitrage behavior when this condition is not satisfied.}, journal={INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF ECONOMICS & FINANCE}, author={You, Zhongyuan and Goodwin, Barry K. and Guney, Selin}, year={2023}, month={Jul}, pages={215–229} }
 @article{gueney_riquelme_goodwin_2023, title={An Analysis of the Pass-Through of Exchange Rates in Forest Product Markets}, volume={13}, ISSN={["2077-0472"]}, DOI={10.3390/agriculture13030515}, abstractNote={This paper assesses the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) for forest product prices (i.e., sawnwood, logs) by applying a two-regime Self-Exciting Threshold Autoregressive (SETAR) model. We incorporate autoregressive second-order dynamics in the regime equations. This leads to better forecasts, as integrating more lags helps capture the cumulative effects of the price dynamics. We examine sawnwood and log products traded in the United States, Malaysia (Southeast Asia) and Cameroon (West Africa). Our results illustrate the importance of applying the two-regime SETAR-type models to analyze the non-linear exchange rate pass-through for forest product markets. The impulse response analysis of each price pair supports the changing behavior of price ratios in various regimes. This may be regarded as another justification to apply models accounting for structural changes to investigate the exchange rate pass-through in a non-linear fashion. The aftershock adjustment process is similar, but the amplitude of the impact differs among markets. The results reveal potential arbitrage opportunities in the forestry industry.}, number={3}, journal={AGRICULTURE-BASEL}, author={Gueney, Selin and Riquelme, Andres and Goodwin, Barry}, year={2023}, month={Mar} }
 @article{won_rejesus_goodwin_aglasan_2023, title={Understanding the effect of cover crop use on prevented planting losses}, ISSN={["1467-8276"]}, DOI={10.1111/ajae.12396}, abstractNote={Abstract Cover cropping has the potential to improve resilience of agriculture to climate‐change‐induced extreme weather events. However, rigorous quantitative evidence on the resilience effect of cover crops is still lacking. Using a novel data set that combines satellite‐based cover crop information and county‐level crop insurance data, we examine the impact of planting cover crops on prevented‐planting‐related losses that are typically caused by heavy rainfall events. The US federal crop insurance program offers “prevented planting” coverage, which pays indemnities if insured growers are unable to plant their crop due to adverse weather. Linear fixed effects models, instrument‐based estimation methods, long‐difference models, and a number of other robustness checks are utilized in the empirical analysis to achieve the study objective. Our findings suggest that counties with higher cover crop adoption rates tend to have lower levels of crop insurance losses due to prevented planting. The resulting reduction in prevented planting risk also becomes larger with longer term, multiyear cover crop use. These results support the notion that cover crops improve soil conditions such that the likelihood and magnitude of prevented planting losses decrease. We posit that the ability of cover crops to handle excess moisture (i.e., through better water absorption and improved water infiltration in the soil) is the main factor in its ability to reduce prevented planting losses in the US Midwest.}, journal={AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={Won, Sunjae and Rejesus, Roderick M. and Goodwin, Barry K. and Aglasan, Serkan}, year={2023}, month={Feb} }
 @article{lu_che_rejesus_goodwin_ghosh_paudel_2023, title={Unintended environmental benefits of crop insurance: Nitrogen and phosphorus in water bodies}, volume={204}, ISSN={["1873-6106"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.ecolecon.2022.107657}, abstractNote={Agricultural policies without explicit environmental goals can indirectly affect the natural environment through its effect on farmer input use behavior. For example, the highly-subsidized crop insurance program in the United States (US), while developed to protect farmers against yield and revenue risks, also has the potential to influence fertilizer and land use decisions, which can then impact the extent of excess nitrogen and phosphorus that can run-off and pollute nearby water bodies. This study utilizes county-level panel data from 1989-2015 to directly evaluate the impact of crop insurance participation on nitrogen and phosphorus concentration in waterways. Results from linear panel fixed effects (FE) models suggest that counties with higher crop insurance participation tend to have lower nitrogen concentrations in its water bodies, but the effects are small. In contrast, we do not find a consistent statistically significant crop insurance effect on phosphorus concentrations. Findings based on alternative estimation techniques and other empirical specifications generally support our baseline FE model results. We posit that the modest crop insurance effects may be due to two competing mechanisms — the moral hazard effect of crop insurance (i.e., reducing fertilizer use), being counteracted by the incentive to bring in riskier crops or marginal land to production (i.e., increasing fertilizer use).}, journal={ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS}, author={Lu, Xun and Che, Yuyuan and Rejesus, Roderick M. and Goodwin, Barry K. and Ghosh, Sujit K. and Paudel, Jayash}, year={2023}, month={Feb} }
 @article{zeytoon-nejad_goodwin_ghosh_2022, title={Generalizing the General: generalizing the CES production function to allow for the viability of input thresholds}, volume={10}, ISSN={["1466-4283"]}, DOI={10.1080/00036846.2022.2128294}, abstractNote={ABSTRACT The original specification of the Constant-Elasticity-of-Substitution (CES) production function introduced by Arrow, Chenery, Minhas, and Solow is considered to be a general production specification that nests multiple types of production functions, i.e. Leontief, Cobb-Douglas, and linear. However, even this general specification of production functions is restrictive in several ways. This paper proposes a generalized variant of the CES production function that allows for the inclusion of the minimum required levels of inputs. Not allowing for this potential attribute is, in fact, one shortcoming of the original CES production-function specification, which in turn could result in misleading conclusions about essential levels of inputs. Accordingly, a solution is proposed to overcome the mentioned shortcoming. Input thresholds are incorporated in the CES production specification, and empirical applications are provided for irrigation and nitrogen. To illustrate the proposed approach in this paper, two empirical applications in irrigation and fertilizer response using the famous Hexem-Heady experimental dataset as well as several datasets produced using Monte-Carlo experiments with different data-generating processes are provided. Finally, implications for modelling input thresholds are considered and discussed.}, journal={APPLIED ECONOMICS}, author={Zeytoon-Nejad, Ali and Goodwin, Barry K. and Ghosh, Sujit}, year={2022}, month={Oct} }
 @article{aglasan_goodwin_rejesus_2022, title={Risk effects of GM corn: Evidence from crop insurance outcomes and high-dimensional methods}, ISSN={["1574-0862"]}, DOI={10.1111/agec.12757}, abstractNote={Abstract This study evaluates whether genetically modified (GM) corn hybrids with rootworm resistant traits (GM‐RW) have lower yield risk. A crop insurance actuarial performance measure, the loss cost ratio (LCR), is used to represent yield risk. High‐dimensional methods are utilized in this study to maintain parsimony in the empirical specification, and facilitate estimation. Specifically, we employ the Cluster‐Lasso (cluster‐least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) procedure. This method produces uniformly valid inference on the main variable of interest (i.e., the GM‐RW variable) in a high‐dimensional panel data setting even in the presence of heteroskedastic, non‐Gaussian, and clustered error structures. After controlling for a large set of potential weather confounders using Cluster‐Lasso, we find consistent evidence that GM corn hybrids with rootworm resistant traits have lower yield risk.}, journal={AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={Aglasan, Serkan and Goodwin, Barry K. and Rejesus, Roderick M.}, year={2022}, month={Dec} }
 @article{zeytoon nejad moosavian_goodwin_2021, title={Flexible modelling of multivariate risks in pricing margin protection insurance: modelling portfolio risks with mixtures of mixtures}, volume={53}, ISSN={["1466-4283"]}, DOI={10.1080/00036846.2020.1808170}, abstractNote={ABSTRACT Margin Protection Programs (MPPs) are relatively new insurance plans, introduced by USDA’s Risk Management Agency (RMA). The attractiveness of these risk management instruments lies in the fact that the financial stability of agricultural production and farming operations is more dependent on margins than solely revenues, which neglect production costs, as is the case for Revenue Protection Programs (RPPs). This article examines the structure and rating of margin protection insurance policies by considering a broad class of high-dimensional copula models that parameterize the dependence among multivariate sources of risks. A variety of copula methods, including Archimedean Copulas (ACs), Mixture Copulas (MCs), and Vine Copulas (VCs) are used to analyse the dependence structure between revenues and input costs. In terms of methodology, flexible mixtures of parametric distributions are applied to characterize marginal densities, and likewise flexible mixtures of alternative copulas are used to model dependence. This article also argues that the rating methodology that accounts for irregular and anomalous features of dependence such as asymmetry, non-linearity, non-ellipticity, and tail dependence between input prices and output prices can result in more accurate premiums, and therefore, can increase the hedging effectiveness of the MPPs and the market efficiency in the US crop insurance market.}, number={4}, journal={APPLIED ECONOMICS}, author={Zeytoon Nejad Moosavian, Seyyed Ali and Goodwin, Barry K.}, year={2021}, month={Jan}, pages={411–440} }
 @article{cramon-taubadel_goodwin_2021, title={Price Transmission in Agricultural Markets}, volume={13}, ISSN={["1941-1359"]}, DOI={10.1146/annurev-resource-100518-093938}, abstractNote={We review recent developments in the analysis of price transmission in agricultural markets. Markets may be separated in time, form, and space (as well as in combinations of such factors). Transact...}, journal={ANNUAL REVIEW OF RESOURCE ECONOMICS, VOL 13}, author={Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan and Goodwin, Barry K.}, year={2021}, pages={65–84} }
 @article{goodwin_holt_prestemon_2021, title={Semi-parametric models of spatial market integration}, volume={61}, ISSN={["1435-8921"]}, DOI={10.1007/s00181-020-01985-2}, number={5}, journal={EMPIRICAL ECONOMICS}, author={Goodwin, Barry K. and Holt, Matthew T. and Prestemon, Jeffrey P.}, year={2021}, month={Nov}, pages={2335–2361} }
 @article{park_zheng_rejesus_goodwin_2021, title={Somebody's watching me! Impacts of the spot check list program in US crop insurance}, ISSN={["1467-8276"]}, DOI={10.1111/ajae.12252}, abstractNote={Abstract The “Spot Check List” (SCL) is an important tool developed to help detect and deter fraud, waste, and abuse in the U.S. crop insurance program. This article examines whether the SCL program affects the extent of crop insurance losses and provides insights into the effectiveness of this program. Using proprietary, county‐level SCL data and panel data econometric procedures (which control for both observable and unobservable confounding factors), we find evidence that counties with more producers included in the SCL tend to have better actuarial performance (i.e., lower indemnity payment amounts) after these producers are informed about their listing on the SCL. In addition, the county‐level SCL effects tend to last for a couple more years beyond the initial year these SCL producers were informed of their listing. These results indicate that the SCL procedure has a notable impact on crop insurance losses and is a valuable tool for maintaining integrity of the program.}, journal={AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={Park, Sungkwol and Zheng, Xiaoyong and Rejesus, Roderick M. and Goodwin, Barry K.}, year={2021}, month={Aug} }
 @article{park_goodwin_zheng_rejesus_2020, title={Contract elements, growing conditions, and anomalous claims behaviour in US crop insurance}, volume={45}, ISSN={["1468-0440"]}, DOI={10.1057/s41288-019-00143-9}, abstractNote={We investigate contract elements and growing conditions associated with anomalous claims behaviour in the U.S. Federal Crop Insurance Program. In this study the measure of “anomalous claims behaviour” is based on the number of producers (in a county) placed on the “Spot Check List” (SCL)—a list generated from government compliance efforts that aim to detect and deter fraud, waste, and abuse in the U.S. Federal Crop Insurance Program. Using county-level data and various econometric approaches that control for features of this data set (e.g., the count nature of the dependent variable, censoring, potential endogeneity, and spatial/temporal dependence), we find that the following crop insurance contract attributes influence the extent of anomalous claims behaviour in a county: (a) the ability to insure individual fields through “optional units”; (b) the coverage level choice; and (c) the total number of acres insured. In addition, our empirical analyses suggest that anomalous claims behaviour significantly increases when extreme weather events occur (e.g., droughts, floods) and when economic conditions are unfavourable (i.e., high input costs that lower profit levels). Results from this study have important implications for addressing potential underwriting vulnerabilities in crop insurance contracts and the frequency of more rigorous compliance inspections.}, number={1}, journal={GENEVA PAPERS ON RISK AND INSURANCE-ISSUES AND PRACTICE}, author={Park, Sungkwol and Goodwin, Barry K. and Zheng, Xiaoyong and Rejesus, Roderick M.}, year={2020}, month={Jan}, pages={157–183} }
 @article{goodwin_piggott_2020, title={Has Technology Increased Agricultural Yield Risk? Evidence from the Crop Insurance Biotech Endorsement}, volume={102}, ISSN={["1467-8276"]}, DOI={10.1002/ajae.12087}, abstractNote={The conventional wisdom that technological advances in seed breeding and genetic modification of corn traits have lowered yield risk has recently been challenged by research that argues that the converse is true. The implications of this research have been applied to models of climate change and have led to the conclusion that these advances have actually increased agronomic risk, such that climate change is asserted to raise important concerns regarding the stability and viability of agricultural output in the future. In a large body of empirical work, the argument is based upon assertions that corn yields have become more sensitive to weather stresses. This increased sensitivity has coincided with the introduction of a variety of genetically engineered (GE) crops in the 1990s and 2000s. We use corn yields and data from the US federal crop insurance program to evaluate these claims. An initial examination of yield responses to droughts in 1988 and 2012 suggests more robust yields in the latter period, in spite of very comparable weather stresses. We next consider side‐by‐side data collected under the Biotech Endorsement (BE) to the federal crop insurance program between 2008 and 2011. This endorsement provided substantial discounts for growers using certain GE hybrids, reflecting policymakers' beliefs that these hybrids had lower yield risk. We find that risk, as measured by the rate of indemnities paid per units insured, was significantly lower for crops insured under the BE. We also find that the difference in risk tends to be greater when growing conditions are less favorable.}, number={5}, journal={AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={Goodwin, Barry K. and Piggott, Nicholas E.}, year={2020}, month={Oct}, pages={1578–1597} }
 @article{wu_goodwin_coble_2020, title={Moral hazard and subsidized crop insurance}, volume={51}, ISSN={["1574-0862"]}, DOI={10.1111/agec.12545}, abstractNote={Along with adverse selection, moral hazard is one of the major hurdles that private and public insurance plans must contend with. Moral hazard occurs if risks are endogenous to a producer's behavior and if the insurer is unable to properly monitor the insured. We review the role of moral hazard in the US crop insurance program. We conduct an empirical analysis of one important aspect of the US crop insurance program—prevented planting. This provision provides indemnity payments if conditions are not suitable for planting. The program has been the subject of considerable controversy, especially during 2019, when the rate of claims is expected to be especially high. Because loss adjustors may encounter difficulties in assessing the weather conditions associated with prevented planting claims, the program is susceptible to moral hazard. We consider the extent to which prevented planting claims may be endogenous to prices. We find significant evidence of moral hazard. The likelihood of prevented planting claims increases as the expected market price decreases or as fertilizer costs increase for corn and soybeans in the Prairie Pothole Region and for grain sorghum and cotton in all states.}, number={1}, journal={AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={Wu, Shenan and Goodwin, Barry K. and Coble, Keith}, year={2020}, month={Jan}, pages={131–142} }
 @article{ramsey_ghosh_goodwin_2020, title={Rating exotic price coverage in crop revenue insurance}, volume={80}, ISSN={["2041-6326"]}, DOI={10.1108/AFR-10-2019-0107}, abstractNote={This paper considers exotic price coverage in crop insurance. The issue is similar to the pricing of options on extrema which are commonly called exotic options. Consideration is made of individual monthly average prices leading to a multivariate distribution with important dependencies. Additionally, the problem is approached in terms of the joint distribution of a maximum over an interval and the harvest time price.}, number={5}, journal={AGRICULTURAL FINANCE REVIEW}, author={Ramsey, A. Ford and Ghosh, Sujit K. and Goodwin, Barry K.}, year={2020}, pages={609–631} }
 @article{zeytoon nejad moosavian_hammond_goodwin_2020, title={Risk aversion over price variability: experimental evidence}, volume={27}, ISSN={["1466-4291"]}, DOI={10.1080/13504851.2020.1717426}, abstractNote={ABSTRACT Eliciting risk attitudes is of crucial importance in economics. We test whether the degree of risk aversion that an individual exhibits in the context of the direct utility function is equivalent to that elicited in the context of the indirect utility function, as implied by duality theory. Our lab experiment uses payoff-based lottery choices (which are based on the direct utility function) and equivalent price-based lottery choices (which are based on the indirect utility function). We reject the equivalence of risk preferences from these two contexts. Subjects are more sensitive to price uncertainty than to equivalent payoff uncertainty.}, number={21}, journal={APPLIED ECONOMICS LETTERS}, author={Zeytoon Nejad Moosavian, Seyyed Ali and Hammond, Robert and Goodwin, Barry K.}, year={2020}, month={Dec}, pages={1739–1745} }
 @article{chen_goodwin_prestemon_2019, title={How to fight against southern pine beetle epidemics: An insurance approach}, volume={67}, ISSN={["1744-7976"]}, DOI={10.1111/cjag.12186}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={2}, journal={CANADIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS-REVUE CANADIENNE D AGROECONOMIE}, author={Chen, Xuan and Goodwin, Barry K. and Prestemon, Jeffrey P.}, year={2019}, month={Jun}, pages={193–213} }
 @article{goodwin_holt_prestemon_2019, title={Nonlinear exchange rate pass-through in timber products: The case of oriented strand board in Canada and the United States}, volume={50}, ISSN={["1879-0860"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.najef.2019.100989}, abstractNote={We assess exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) for U.S. and Canadian prices for oriented strand board (OSB), a structural wood panel product used extensively in U.S. residential construction. Because of its prominence in construction and international trade, OSB markets are likely sensitive to general economic conditions. In keeping with recent research, we examine regime-specific ERPT effects; we use a smooth transition vector error correction model. We also consider ERPT asymmetries associated with a measure of general macroeconomic activity. Our results indicate that during expansionary periods ERPT is modest, but during downturns, ERPT effects are larger.}, journal={NORTH AMERICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE}, author={Goodwin, Barry K. and Holt, Matthew T. and Prestemon, Jeffrey P.}, year={2019}, month={Nov} }
 @article{guney_goodwin_riquelme_2019, title={SEMI- PARAMETRIC GENERALIZED ADDITIVE VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS OF SPATIAL BASIS DYNAMICS}, volume={101}, ISSN={["1467-8276"]}, DOI={10.1093/ajae/aay033}, abstractNote={An extensive empirical literature addressing the behavior of prices over time and across spatially distinct markets has grown substantially over time. A fundamental axiom of economics--the "Law of One Price"--underlies the arbitrage behavior thought to characterize such relationships. This literature has progressed from a simple consideration of correlation coecents and linear regression models to classes of models that address particular time series properties of price data and consider nonlinear price linkages. In recent years, this literature has focused on models capable of accommodating structural change and regime switching behavior. This regime switching behavior has been addressed through the application of nonlinear time series models such smooth and discrete threshold autoregressive models. The regime switching behavior arises because of unobservable transactions costs which may result in discrete trade/no trade regimes or smooth, continuous transitions among different states of the market. As the empirical literature has evolved, it has applied increasingly exible models of regime switching. For example, Goodwin, Holt, and Prestemon (2012) applied smooth transition autoregressive models to consider regional linkages in markets for oriented strand board lumber products. Enders and Holt (2012) examined commodity price relationships using a series of overlapping smooth transition functions to capture structural changes and mean shifting behavior. This literature has also involved an evolution in the methods for statistically testing structural change and regime switching behaviors. Chow tests with known break points have evolved into tests of discrete and gradual mean shifting with unknown break points and variable speeds of adjustment among regimes. These tests address the widely recognized problems associated with nonstandard test statistics and parameters that may be unidentified under null hypotheses. In this paper, we propose a new class of semi-parametric models that accommodate mean shifting behavior in a vector autoregressive modeling framework. We view this approach as a natural next step in the evolution of nonlinear time series models of spatial and regional price behavior. To this end, we consider recent advances in semiparametric modeling that have developed methods for additive models that consist of a mixture of parametric and nonparametric components. Our vector autoregressive models adopt the "Generalized Additive Models" (GAM) estimation procedures Hastie and Tibshirani (1986) and Linton (2000). In particular, we use the backfitting and integration algorithms developed for GAM model estimation to incorporate a non-parametric mean shift in the linkages describing individual pairs and larger groups of market prices. Our empirical specification involves simple and vector error correction models that relate price differences to lagged values of prices and price differentials. Our application is to daily data collected from a number of important corn and soybean markets at spatially distinct markets in North Carolina. These data have been previously utilized to evaluate regional price linkages and spatial market integration (see, for example, Goodwin and Piggott (2001)). We use generalized impulse response functions to evaluate the dynamics of regional price adjustments to localized shocks in individual markets. Implications for regional price adjustments and, in particular, adjustments during recent periods of high volatility, are discussed in the paper. Finally, we offer suggestions for further extensions of the semi-parametric analysis of regime switching behavior.}, number={2}, journal={AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={Guney, Selin and Goodwin, Barry K. and Riquelme, Andres}, year={2019}, month={Mar}, pages={541–562} }
 @article{ramsey_goodwin_2019, title={Value-at-Risk and Models of Dependence in the U.S. Federal Crop Insurance Program}, volume={12}, ISSN={["1911-8074"]}, DOI={10.3390/jrfm12020065}, abstractNote={The federal crop insurance program covered more than 110 billion dollars in total liability in 2018. The program consists of policies across a wide range of crops, plans, and locations. Weather and other latent variables induce dependence among components of the portfolio. Computing value-at-risk (VaR) is important because the Standard Reinsurance Agreement (SRA) allows for a portion of the risk to be transferred to the federal government. Further, the international reinsurance industry is extensively involved in risk sharing arrangements with U.S. crop insurers. VaR is an important measure of the risk of an insurance portfolio. In this context, VaR is typically expressed in terms of probable maximum loss (PML) or as a return period, whereby a loss of certain magnitude is expected to return within a given period of time. Determining bounds on VaR is complicated by the non-homogeneous nature of crop insurance portfolios. We consider several different scenarios for the marginal distributions of losses and provide sharp bounds on VaR using a rearrangement algorithm. Our results are related to alternative measures of portfolio risks based on multivariate distribution functions and alternative copula specifications.}, number={2}, journal={JOURNAL OF RISK AND FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT}, author={Ramsey, A. Ford and Goodwin, Barry K.}, year={2019}, month={Jun} }
 @article{goodwin_holt_onel_prestemon_2018, title={Copula-based nonlinear modeling of the law of one price for lumber products}, volume={54}, ISSN={["1435-8921"]}, DOI={10.1007/s00181-017-1235-4}, number={3}, journal={EMPIRICAL ECONOMICS}, author={Goodwin, Barry K. and Holt, Matthew T. and Onel, Gulcan and Prestemon, Jeffrey P.}, year={2018}, month={May}, pages={1237–1265} }
 @article{santeramo_goodwin_adinolfi_capitanio_2016, title={Farmer Participation, Entry and Exit Decisions in the Italian Crop Insurance Programme}, volume={67}, ISSN={["1477-9552"]}, DOI={10.1111/1477-9552.12155}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={3}, journal={JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={Santeramo, F. G. and Goodwin, B. K. and Adinolfi, F. and Capitanio, F.}, year={2016}, month={Sep}, pages={639–657} }
 @article{goodwin_marra_piggott_2016, title={The cost of a GMO-free market basket of food in the US}, volume={49}, journal={Coexistence of genetically modified, organic and conventional foods: government policies and market practices}, author={Goodwin, B. K. and Marra, M. and Piggott, N.}, year={2016}, pages={363–378} }
 @article{goodwin_2015, title={Agricultural Policy Analysis: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly}, volume={97}, ISSN={["1467-8276"]}, DOI={10.1093/ajae/aau105}, abstractNote={American Journal of Agricultural EconomicsVolume 97, Issue 2 p. 353-373 Presidential Address Agricultural Policy Analysis: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly† Barry K. Goodwin, Corresponding Author Barry K. Goodwin [email protected] Departments of Economics and Agricultural and Resource Economics, North Carolina State UniversityEmail: [email protected]Search for more papers by this author Barry K. Goodwin, Corresponding Author Barry K. Goodwin [email protected] Departments of Economics and Agricultural and Resource Economics, North Carolina State UniversityEmail: [email protected]Search for more papers by this author First published: 08 December 2014 https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aau105Citations: 13 † * 2014 Agricultural and Applied Economics Association Presidential Address. Goodwin is the William Neal Reynolds Distinguished Professor in the Departments of Economics and Agricultural and Resource Economics at North Carolina State University. ‡ I have benefitted from extensive discussions with numerous friends, colleagues, teachers, and students. I am particularly indebted to Andy Barkley, Ron Gallant, Matt Holt, Nick Piggott, Vince Smith, Ian Sheldon, Dan Sumner, Jim Vercammen, and seminar participants at the Ohio State University, at the 2014 International Agricultural Risk, Finance, and Insurance Conference, and at the 2014 SCC-76 Conference on Risk. Any remaining errors are of course my responsibility. Read the full textAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditWechat Citing Literature Volume97, Issue2March 2015Pages 353-373 RelatedInformation}, number={2}, journal={AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={Goodwin, Barry K.}, year={2015}, month={Mar}, pages={353–373} }
 @article{goodwin_hungerford_2015, title={Copula-Based Models of Systemic Risk in US Agriculture: Implications for Crop Insurance and Reinsurance Contracts}, volume={97}, ISSN={["1467-8276"]}, DOI={10.1093/ajae/aau086}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={3}, journal={AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={Goodwin, Barry K. and Hungerford, Ashley}, year={2015}, month={Apr}, pages={879–896} }
 @article{chen_goodwin_2015, title={Policy Design of Multi-Year Crop Insurance Contracts with Partial Payments}, volume={10}, ISSN={["1932-6203"]}, DOI={10.1371/journal.pone.0145384}, abstractNote={Current crop insurance is designed to mitigate monetary fluctuations resulting from yield losses for a specific year. However, yield realization tendency can vary from year to year and may depend on the correlation of yield realizations across years. When the current single-year Yield Protection (YP) and Area Risk Protection Insurance (ARPI) contracts are extended to multiple periods, actuarially fair premium rate is expected to decrease as poor yield realizations in a year can be offset by another year’s better yield realizations. In this study, we first use simulations to demonstrate how significant premium savings are possible when coverage is based on the sum of yields across years rather than on a year-by-year basis. We then describe the design of a multi-year framework of crop insurance and model the insurance using a copula approach. Insurance terms are extended to more than a year and the premium, liability, and indemnity are determined by a multi-year term. Moreover, partial payment is provided at the end of each term to offset the possibility of significant loss in a single term. County-level data obtained from the U.S. Department of Agriculture are used to demonstrate the implementations of the proposed multi-year crop insurance. The proposed multi-year plan would benefit farmers by offering insurance guarantees across years for significantly lower costs.}, number={12}, journal={PLOS ONE}, author={Chen, Ying-Erh and Goodwin, Barry K.}, year={2015}, month={Dec} }
 @article{tejeda_goodwin_2014, title={Dynamic multiproduct optimal hedging in the soybean complex - do time-varying correlations provide hedging improvements?}, volume={46}, ISSN={["1466-4283"]}, DOI={10.1080/00036846.2014.927571}, abstractNote={Optimal multiproduct time-varying hedge ratios are determined – for a soybean complex – and their risk-mitigating impact is contrasted over single-commodity time-varying and naive hedge ratios. A parsimonious regime-switching dynamic correlation model is employed, with the estimated dynamic correlation matrix among prices varying between two different levels, and the time-varying correlations being applied to the multiproduct setting. Findings obtained are three-fold. First, there is significant evidence that estimated simultaneous correlations among different commodities’ prices (e.g. soybean spot and soybean meal futures) attain different values along the time series. Second, there is a substantial reduction in margin variance provided by the optimal multiproduct time-varying hedge ratios over single time-varying and naive hedge ratios, for both in- and out-of-sample data. Third, average optimal multiproduct time-varying hedge ratios for soybean and soybean meal (0.82 and 0.74, respectively; for out-of-sample data) are significantly below the naive full hedge ratio, providing risk mitigation at lower costs.}, number={27}, journal={APPLIED ECONOMICS}, author={Tejeda, Hernan A. and Goodwin, Barry K.}, year={2014}, pages={3312–3322} }
 @article{chen_goodwin_prestemon_2014, title={Is Timber Insurable? A Study of Wildfire Risks in the U.S. Forest Sector Using Spatio-Temporal Models}, volume={96}, ISSN={["1467-8276"]}, DOI={10.1093/ajae/aat087}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={1}, journal={AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={Chen, Xuan and Goodwin, Barry K. and Prestemon, Jeffrey P.}, year={2014}, month={Jan}, pages={213–231} }
 @article{oenel_goodwin_2014, title={Real Options Approach to Inter-Sectoral Migration of U.S. Farm Labor}, volume={96}, ISSN={["1467-8276"]}, DOI={10.1093/ajae/aau004}, abstractNote={The core of the literature on inter‐sectoral labor migration is based on net present value models of investment in which individuals are assumed to migrate to take advantage of positive wage differentials. In this article, we argue that a real options approach, taken together with the adjustment costs associated with sectoral relocation, may provide a basis for explaining the migration of farm labor out of the agricultural sector. Given the irreversibility of migration decisions and uncertainty in the economy, potential migrants might choose to postpone migration, even in the face of positive wage differentials. Using annual U.S. employment data from between 1948 and 2009, our results indicate that large elasticities between economic incentives and out‐farm migration are observed after a high threshold of wage differentials between farm and off‐farm sectors is surpassed.}, number={4}, journal={AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={Oenel, Guelcan and Goodwin, Barry K.}, year={2014}, month={Jul}, pages={1198–1219} }
 @article{goodwin_2013, title={A note on a simplified and general approach to simulating from multivariate copula functions}, volume={20}, ISSN={["1466-4291"]}, DOI={10.1080/13504851.2012.761418}, abstractNote={Copulas have become an important analytic tool for characterizing multivariate distributions and dependence. One is often interested in simulating data from copula estimates. The process can be analytically and computationally complex and usually involves steps that are unique to a given parametric copula. We describe an alternative approach that uses ‘Probability-Proportional-to-Size’ random sampling with weights formed from the copula likelihood function. The method is flexible and can be applied to parametric and nonparametric marginal density estimates. The precision of the simulation can be calibrated by adjusting the density of the multidimensional grid used in the simulation process. The approach is fully transparent to any copula function with continuous random variables. An example evaluates a number of goodness-of-fit criteria and provides strong support for the validity and practicality of the method.}, number={9}, journal={APPLIED ECONOMICS LETTERS}, author={Goodwin, Barry K.}, year={2013}, month={Jun}, pages={910–915} }
 @article{bekkerman_goodwin_piggott_2013, title={A variable threshold band approach to measuring market linkages}, volume={45}, ISSN={["0003-6846"]}, DOI={10.1080/00036846.2012.671925}, abstractNote={Uncertain and changing economic conditions can have substantial effects on price relationships in spatially separated, linked markets. Although numerous studies have analysed price relationships to characterize market linkage structures, most assume that the relationships and associated linkages are time invariant. This study extends the literature by modelling and estimating time-dependent market linkages that are conditional on changes in exogenous factors. The methodology is used to investigate price relationships in North Carolina (NC) corn and soya bean markets. Empirical results indicate that generalized market-linkage models provide a better representation of price relationships over time, improving the understanding of price discovery dynamics and marketing strategies.}, number={19}, journal={APPLIED ECONOMICS}, author={Bekkerman, Anton and Goodwin, Barry K. and Piggott, Nicholas E.}, year={2013}, pages={2705–2714} }
 @article{smith_goodwin_2013, title={The Environmental Consequences of Subsidized Risk Management and Disaster Assistance Programs}, volume={5}, ISSN={["1941-1340"]}, DOI={10.1146/annurev-resource-110811-114505}, abstractNote={ Federal subsidized crop insurance has been a major fixture of US agricultural policies for the past several decades. In recent years, the program has expanded rapidly and now constitutes the largest and most expensive agricultural subsidy initiative in the United States. Similar programs have been introduced around the world. All these programs have one common denominator: Absent generous subsidies, participation is minimal. Such subsidies introduce the potential for a wide range of distortions. Intensive margin distortions may result from moral hazard as insured growers alter their production practices. Distortions at the extensive margin may arise as acreage decisions reflect the presence of subsidized risk management, resulting in lands with alternative uses being planted to crops. A range of environmental effects may arise as a result of these distortions. Not all those effects are negative, because subsidized insurance may result in less intensive use of chemical and fertilizer inputs. We review the history and operation of the current program and discuss the options currently being deliberated for future crop insurance programs. }, journal={ANNUAL REVIEW OF RESOURCE ECONOMICS, VOL 5}, author={Smith, Vincent H. and Goodwin, Barry K.}, year={2013}, pages={35–60} }
 @article{goodwin_smith_2013, title={What Harm Is Done By Subsidizing Crop Insurance?}, volume={95}, ISSN={["1467-8276"]}, DOI={10.1093/ajae/aas092}, abstractNote={Agriculture is subject to a wide variety of risks, including many hazards arising from wide-spread natural disasters. The U.S. federal crop insurance program, initially introduced on a small scale in 1938 in response to a campaign promise of President Franklin Roosevelt, now carries a total liability in excess of $114 billion and insures 262 million acres. The premiums paid by farmers in this program are highly subsidized (in excess of 60% of the total premium) and private insurance companies also receive significant taxpayer subsidies to operate and administer the program. Private insurance companies are also provided with an advantageous taxpayer–supported reinsurance agreement. In recent years, the program has accounted for nearly $10 billion annually in subsidies to farmers and insurance companies, making it the most expensive agricultural commodity program. The program is currently being debated in Congress as the new 2012 Farm Bill is considered. If anything, indications are that the next farm bill may expand federal crop insurance programs by introducing a “shallow loss” program intended to offer higher coverage levels. Whether such a program is implemented through the federal crop insurance program or as a component of other farm commodity programs remains to be seen. However, all Congressional observers agree that crop insurance will continue to play a key role in US farm policy. Before proceeding to the central question of this paper—what harm does subsidized crop insurance cause—we must first address two fundamental issues. First, it is important to describe the various ways in which the U.S. government subsidizes the federal crop insurance program. There are several different dimensions to subsidies in the federal crop insurance program. The most obvious subsidies are those that are paid to farmers through subsidized premium rates. Most observers agree that the Risk Management Agency has done an increasingly effective job in determining actuarially– sound premium rates for the various crop insurance programs currently available. However, from the viewpoint of a farmer buying insurance (or, for that matter, the taxpayer who is footing the bill) these unsubsidized premium rates are meaningless. Rather, it is the premium that farmers actually have to pay for coverage that is relevant to their participation in the program. Thus, the Goodwin is William Neal Reynolds Distinguished Professor in the Departments of Economics and Agricultural and Resource Economics at North Carolina State University. Smith is a professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics and Economics at Montana State University. Research support from the North Carolina Agricultural Research Service and the American Enterprise Institute is gratefully acknowledged.}, number={2}, journal={AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={Goodwin, Barry K. and Smith, Vincent H.}, year={2013}, month={Jan}, pages={489–497} }
 @article{bekkerman_piggott_goodwin_jefferson-moore_2012, title={A Market-based Mitigation Program for Wind-borne Diseases}, volume={41}, ISSN={1068-2805 2372-2614}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S1068280500003336}, DOI={10.1017/S1068280500003336}, abstractNote={Wind-borne diseases can spread rapidly and cause large losses. Producers may have little incentive to prevent disease spread because prevention may not be welfare-maximizing. This study proposes a market-based mitigation program that indemnifies producers against disease-related losses and provides an incentive to neighboring producers to take preventive action, which can substantially mitigate infestations, reduce the likelihood of catastrophic losses, and increase social welfare. An equilibrium displacement model simulates introduction of the program for U.S. soybeans. Simulations reveal that the market-based solution contributes to minor market distortions but also reduces social welfare losses and could succeed for other at-risk commodities.}, number={2}, journal={Agricultural and Resource Economics Review}, publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, author={Bekkerman, Anton and Piggott, Nicholas E. and Goodwin, Barry K. and Jefferson-Moore, Kenrett}, year={2012}, month={Aug}, pages={175–188} }
 @article{hassouneh_serra_goodwin_gil_2012, title={Non-parametric and parametric modeling of biodiesel, sunflower oil, and crude oil price relationships}, volume={34}, ISSN={["0140-9883"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.eneco.2012.06.027}, abstractNote={Multivariate local linear regression and parametric error correction models are applied to assess price linkages and price transmission patterns between food and energy prices in Spain. Weekly biodiesel, sunflower and crude oil prices observed from November 2006 to October 2010 are used in the empirical analysis. Results suggest the existence of a long-run, equilibrium relationship between the three prices studied. Biodiesel is the only variable that adjusts to deviations from this long-run relationship. Local linear regression techniques show that the speed of adjustment of biodiesel prices is faster when biodiesel is relatively cheap than when it is expensive. Energy prices are also found to influence sunflower oil prices through short-run price dynamics.}, number={5}, journal={ENERGY ECONOMICS}, author={Hassouneh, Islam and Serra, Teresa and Goodwin, Barry K. and Gil, Jose M.}, year={2012}, month={Sep}, pages={1507–1513} }
 @article{goodwin_2011, title={Agricultural Subsidies in the WTO Green Box}, volume={10}, ISSN={["1474-7456"]}, DOI={10.1017/s147474561100005x}, abstractNote={finements of the argument may choose to address. How has the ability of producers to lobby and the nature of their lobbying been affected by European integration? Moreover, many times throughout the book Duer remarks that French interests were the least accommodating and almost derailed the conclusion of liberalizing agreements – whether in agriculture, banking, or a slew of other sectors. Why? If only pure economic interests were determining the preferences of a country, French exporters should have been at the forefront of those clamoring for market access. Why don’t French services exporters mobilize? More generally, how does one explain the puzzle that the EU has been so willing in successive rounds of negotiations to sacrifice services to agriculture? Nonetheless, despite its apparent simplicity, the ‘protection for exporters’ argument is actually novel and, as such, represents a real contribution to the political economy literature. It has the potential for being extended to other regions and other players, as well as to the past examples of regional agreements, such as the Zollverein, which Duer alludes to. It could also be tested and used to explain why the EU and the US are not liberalizing further in the face of the growing competition coming from the BRIC countries and especially China.}, number={2}, journal={WORLD TRADE REVIEW}, author={Goodwin, Barry K.}, year={2011}, month={Apr}, pages={293–295} }
 @article{qiu_goodwin_gervais_2011, title={An empirical investigation of the linkages between government payments and farmland leasing arrangements}, volume={36}, number={3}, journal={Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics}, author={Qiu, F. and Goodwin, B. K. and Gervais, J. P.}, year={2011}, pages={536–551} }
 @article{zhu_goodwin_ghosh_2011, title={Modeling yield risk under technological change: Dynamic yield distributions and the US crop insurance program}, volume={36}, number={1}, journal={Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics}, author={Zhu, Y. and Goodwin, B. K. and Ghosh, S. K.}, year={2011}, pages={192–210} }
 @article{serra_zilberman_gil_goodwin_2011, title={Nonlinearities in the U.S. corn-ethanol-oil-gasoline price system}, volume={42}, ISSN={["0169-5150"]}, DOI={10.1111/j.1574-0862.2010.00464.x}, abstractNote={We use a smooth transition vector error correction model to assess price relationships within the U.S. ethanol industry. Monthly ethanol, corn, oil, and gasoline prices from 1990 to 2008 are used in the analysis. Results indicate the existence of long-run relationships among the prices analyzed. Strong links between energy and food prices are identified.}, number={1}, journal={AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={Serra, Teresa and Zilberman, David and Gil, Jose M. and Goodwin, Barry K.}, year={2011}, month={Jan}, pages={35–45} }
 @article{goodwin_holt_prestemon_2011, title={North American Oriented Strand Board Markets, Arbitrage Activity, and Market Price Dynamics: A Smooth Transition Approach}, volume={93}, ISSN={["1467-8276"]}, DOI={10.1093/ajae/aar024}, abstractNote={Price dynamics for North American oriented strand board markets are examined. The role of transactions costs are explored vis‐à‐vis the law of one price. Nonlinearities induced by unobservable transactions costs are modeled by estimating time‐varying smooth transition autoregressions (TV‐STARs). Results indicate that nonlinearity and structural change are important features of these markets; price parity relationships implied by economic theory are generally supported by the estimated models. Implications for the efficiency of spatial market linkages and the dynamics associated with price adjustments are also examined.}, number={4}, journal={AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={Goodwin, Barry K. and Holt, Matthew T. and Prestemon, Jeffrey P.}, year={2011}, month={Jul}, pages={993–1014} }
 @article{harri_coble_ker_goodwin_2011, title={Relaxing Heteroscedasticity Assumptions in Area-Yield Crop Insurance Rating}, volume={93}, ISSN={["1467-8276"]}, DOI={10.1093/ajae/aar009}, abstractNote={This article focuses on the effect of differing heteroscedasticity assumptions on derived premium rates of area‐yield crop insurance. Tests of the proportional and absolute heteroscedasticity assumptions are conducted using both in‐sample and out‐of‐sample measures. Our results suggest that arbitrarily imposing a specific form of heteroscedasticity or homoscedasticity in insurance rate calculations limits actuarial soundness. Our results have practical implications for the federal crop insurance programs, as we reject the traditional rating assumptions for many cotton regions and lower‐yielding/higher‐risk corn and soybean counties but not in the heart of the Cornbelt.}, number={3}, journal={AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={Harri, Ardian and Coble, Keith H. and Ker, Alan P. and Goodwin, Barry J.}, year={2011}, month={Apr}, pages={703–713} }
 @article{serra_goodwin_featherstone_2011, title={Risk behavior in the presence of government programs}, volume={162}, ISSN={["1872-6895"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.jeconom.2009.10.005}, abstractNote={Our paper assesses the impacts of the 1996 US Farm Bill on production decisions. We apply the expected utility model to analyze farmers’ behavior under risk and assess how farmers’ production decisions change in the presence of government programs. Specifically, we empirically evaluate the relative price and the risk-related effects of farm policy changes at the intensive margin of production, as well as the extra value that these policies add to farmers’ certainty equivalent. We use farm-level data collected in Kansas to estimate the model. We find evidence that decoupled government programs have only negligible impacts on production decisions.}, number={1}, journal={JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS}, author={Serra, Teresa and Goodwin, Barry K. and Featherstone, Allen M.}, year={2011}, month={May}, pages={18–24} }
 @article{knight_coble_goodwin_rejesus_seo_2010, title={DEVELOPING VARIABLE UNIT-STRUCTURE PREMIUM RATE DIFFERENTIALS IN CROP INSURANCE}, volume={92}, ISSN={["0002-9092"]}, DOI={10.1093/ajae/aap002}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={1}, journal={AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={Knight, Thomas O. and Coble, Keith H. and Goodwin, Barry K. and Rejesus, Roderick M. and Seo, Sangtaek}, year={2010}, month={Jan}, pages={141–151} }
 @article{belasco_schroeder_goodwin_2010, title={Quality risk and profitability in cattle production: A multivariate approach}, volume={35}, number={3}, journal={Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics}, author={Belasco, E. J. and Schroeder, T. C. and Goodwin, B. K.}, year={2010}, pages={385–405} }
 @article{goodwin_smith_2009, title={Harvest-time protein shocks and price adjustment in US wheat markets}, volume={34}, number={2}, journal={Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics}, author={Goodwin, B. K. and Smith, V. H.}, year={2009}, pages={237–255} }
 @article{goodwin_2009, title={Payment Limitations and Acreage Decisions under Risk Aversion: A Simulation Approach}, volume={91}, ISSN={["0002-9092"]}, DOI={10.1111/j.1467-8276.2008.01187.x}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={1}, journal={AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={Goodwin, Barry K.}, year={2009}, month={Feb}, pages={19–41} }
 @article{belasco_taylor_goodwin_schroeder_2009, title={Probabilistic Models of Yield, Price, and Revenue Risks for Fed Cattle Production}, volume={41}, ISSN={1074-0708 2056-7405}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S1074070800002571}, DOI={10.1017/S1074070800002571}, abstractNote={Cattle feeding enterprises operate amid variability originating in prices and production. This research explicitly models yield risks related to cattle feeding by relating the mean and variance of yield performance factors to observable conditioning variables. The results demonstrate that pen characteristics, such as entry weight, gender, placement season, and location influence the mean and variability of yield factors, defined as dry matter feed conversion, average daily gain, mortality, and animal health costs. Ex ante profit distributions, conditional on cattle placement characteristics, are derived through simulation methods to evaluate the effects of price or yield shocks on the distributional characteristics of expected profits.}, number={1}, journal={Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics}, publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, author={Belasco, Eric J. and Taylor, Mykel R. and Goodwin, Barry K. and Schroeder, Ted C.}, year={2009}, month={Apr}, pages={91–105} }
 @article{belasco_ghosh_goodwin_2009, title={Public investment and industry incentives in life-science research}, volume={91}, number={2}, journal={American Journal of Agricultural Economics}, author={Belasco, E. J. and Ghosh, S. K. and Goodwin, B. K.}, year={2009}, pages={431–443} }
 @article{al-abri_goodwin_2009, title={Re-examining the exchange rate pass-through into import prices using non-linear estimation techniques: Threshold cointegration}, volume={18}, ISSN={["1873-8036"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.iref.2007.09.005}, abstractNote={We document a significant threshold cointegrating relationship among effective nominal exchange rates and import prices. Using quarterly data for five industries of 16 OECD countries, we find that the degree of pass-through improves dramatically from the 50% average documented in the literature once threshold effects are recognized. The results of our threshold cointegration model show that import prices respond faster and by a larger extent to nominal exchange rate shocks than is the case for more conventional models. These findings give empirical support to the hypothesis that an equilibrium rate of pass-through exists (e.g. [Bacchetta, P., & Van Wincoop, E. (2005). A Theory of the currency denomination of international trade, Journal of International Economics 67, 295–319; Devereux, M., Engel, C., & Storgaard, P. (2004). Endogenous exchange rate pass-through when nominal prices are set in advance, Journal of International Economics 63(2), 263–291]).}, number={1}, journal={INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF ECONOMICS & FINANCE}, author={Al-Abri, Almukhtar S. and Goodwin, Barry K.}, year={2009}, pages={142–161} }
 @article{goodwin_piggott_2009, title={Spatiotemporal Modeling of Asian Citrus Canker Risks: Implications for Insurance and Indemnification Fund Models}, volume={91}, ISSN={["1467-8276"]}, DOI={10.1111/j.1467-8276.2009.01321.x}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={4}, journal={AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={Goodwin, Barry K. and Piggott, Nicholas E.}, year={2009}, month={Nov}, pages={1038–1055} }
 @article{serra_goodwin_2009, title={The efficiency of Spanish arable crop organic farms, a local maximum likelihood approach}, volume={31}, ISSN={["1573-0441"]}, DOI={10.1007/s11123-008-0124-4}, number={2}, journal={JOURNAL OF PRODUCTIVITY ANALYSIS}, author={Serra, Teresa and Goodwin, Barry K.}, year={2009}, month={Apr}, pages={113–124} }
 @article{goodwin_2008, title={Climate variability implications for agricultural crop production and risk management: Discussion}, volume={90}, DOI={10.1111/j.1467-8276.2008.01214.x}, abstractNote={American Journal of Agricultural EconomicsVolume 90, Issue 5 p. 1263-1264 Principal Paper Session Climate Variability Implications for Agricultural Crop Production and Risk Management: Discussion Barry K. Goodwin, Barry K. Goodwin William Neal Reynolds Professor Departments of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Economics, North Carolina State UniversitySearch for more papers by this author Barry K. Goodwin, Barry K. Goodwin William Neal Reynolds Professor Departments of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Economics, North Carolina State UniversitySearch for more papers by this author First published: 01 December 2008 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8276.2008.01214.xCitations: 4 This article was presented in a principal paper session at the 2008 AAEA annual meeting in Orlando, FL. The articles in these sessions are not subjected to the journal's standard refereeing process. Read the full textAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL No abstract is available for this article. References Ker A. and P. McGowan Weather-Based Adverse Selection and the U.S. Crop Insurance Program: The Private Insurance Company Perspective Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 25(2000): 386– 410 Lorentzen A. Cedar Rapids Struggles To Endure Historic Flood Associated Press 2008 June 16, 2008 Available at: http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D918Q0E80&show_article=1 Marron J.S. and H.P. Schmitz Simultaneous Density Estimation of Several Income Distributions Econometric Theory 8(1992): 476– 88 Citing Literature Volume90, Issue5December 2008Pages 1263-1264 ReferencesRelatedInformation}, number={5}, journal={American Journal of Agricultural Economics}, author={Goodwin, B. K.}, year={2008}, pages={1263–1264} }
 @article{ozaki_goodwin_shirota_2008, title={Parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield: implications for pricing crop insurance contracts}, volume={40}, ISSN={["1466-4283"]}, DOI={10.1080/00036840600749680}, abstractNote={This article considers alternative methods to calculate the fair premium rate of crop insurance contracts based on county yields. The premium rate was calculated using parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the conditional agricultural yield density. These methods were applied to a data set of county yield provided by the Statistical and Geography Brazilian Institute (IBGE), for the period of 1990 through 2002, for soybean, corn and wheat, in the State of Paraná. In this article, we propose methodological alternatives to pricing crop insurance contracts resulting in more accurate premium rates in a situation of limited data.}, number={9}, journal={APPLIED ECONOMICS}, author={Ozaki, Vitor A. and Goodwin, Barry K. and Shirota, Ricardo}, year={2008}, pages={1151–1164} }
 @article{goodwin_rejesus_2008, title={Safety Nets or Trampolines? Federal Crop Insurance, Disaster Assistance, and the Farm Bill}, volume={40}, ISSN={1074-0708 2056-7405}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S1074070800023713}, DOI={10.1017/S1074070800023713}, abstractNote={We review the implications of the 2007 Farm Bill for the risk management dimensions of U.S. agriculture and policy. Legislative proposals suggest significant changes in risk management policy, including the introduction of state or national revenue insurance. We also pursue an empirical analysis of the interrelationships of crop insurance, disaster relief, and farm profitability. We find an inverse relationship between disaster assistance and insurance purchases. Our analysis also suggests that farmers that buy insurance and that receive disaster payments tend to have higher returns to farming.}, number={2}, journal={Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics}, publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, author={Goodwin, Barry K. and Rejesus, Roderick M.}, year={2008}, month={Aug}, pages={415–429} }
 @article{ozaki_ghosh_goodwin_shirota_2008, title={Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts}, volume={90}, ISSN={["1467-8276"]}, url={http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-51349112605&partnerID=MN8TOARS}, DOI={10.1111/j.1467-8276.2008.01153.x}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={4}, journal={AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={Ozaki, Vitor A. and Ghosh, Sujit K. and Goodwin, Barry K. and Shirota, Ricardo}, year={2008}, month={Nov}, pages={951–961} }
 @article{bekkerman_goodwin_piggott_2008, title={Spatio-temporal risk and severity analysis of soybean rust in the United States}, volume={33}, number={3}, journal={Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics}, author={Bekkerman, A. and Goodwin, B. K. and Piggott, N. E.}, year={2008}, pages={311–331} }
 @article{goodwin_2008, title={The incidence and implications of binding farm program payment limits}, volume={30}, ISSN={["1058-7195"]}, DOI={10.1111/j.1467-9353.2008.00430.x}, abstractNote={Payment limits have played an important role in U.S. farm policy deliberations for the last 30 years. Current limits are largely non-binding because of the use of commodity certificates and the difficulties associated with tracing payments to individuals. Proposals to limit payments have played an important role in deliberations over the 2007 Farm Bill. An amendment to the Senate version of the legislation would significantly strengthen and enforce limits on payments. We use farm-level data on production, ex-post realizations of payments, and reported base yields and acreage to consider the potential impacts of payment limits. Our results suggest that rice, peanuts, and cotton would be the only crops to realize substantial impacts from the limits currently under discussion. However, even for these commodities, the likely proportion of growers and total acreage subject to the limits would be relatively modest. Copyright 2008, Oxford University Press.}, number={3}, journal={REVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={Goodwin, Barry K.}, year={2008}, pages={554–571} }
 @article{gardner_goodwin_ahearn_2007, title={Economic statistics and US agricultural policy}, volume={37}, ISSN={["1574-0862"]}, DOI={10.1111/j.1574-0862.2007.00248.x}, abstractNote={Abstract}, journal={AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={Gardner, Bruce and Goodwin, Barry and Ahearn, Mary}, year={2007}, month={Dec}, pages={237–248} }
 @article{goodwin_vado_2007, title={Public responses to agricultural disasters: Rethinking the role of government}, volume={55}, ISSN={["1744-7976"]}, DOI={10.1111/j.1744-7976.2007.00099.x}, abstractNote={ We provide a broad overview of the role and history of federal disaster relief in U.S. agriculture. We discuss various economic arguments that may be used as justification for such disaster relief and subsidized insurance programs. In general, we find no persuasive argument that market failure justifies subsidized risk management activities by the government. Important exceptions exist in the case of catastrophic damages to public infrastructure, invasive and communicable disease threats, and the hazards posed by accidental or deliberate contamination of food supplies in that the presence of significant transactions costs may inhibit private market solutions. We also consider a panel VAR analysis of the dynamic interrelationships among market returns and farm program payments conveyed under three different types of programs—disaster assistance, crop insurance, and all other direct payments. An important finding is that disaster and insurance payments appear to imply higher subsequent levels of market income risk in agriculture. This finding is consistent with arguments that subsidized disaster assistance and insurance may lead to greater risk in agriculture. }, number={4}, journal={CANADIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS-REVUE CANADIENNE D AGROECONOMIE}, author={Goodwin, Barry K. and Vado, Ligia A.}, year={2007}, month={Dec}, pages={399–417} }
 @article{goodwin_mishra_2006, title={Are "decoupled" farm program payments really decoupled ? An empirical evaluation}, volume={88}, ISSN={["1467-8276"]}, DOI={10.1111/j.1467-8276.2006.00839.x}, abstractNote={This analysis utilizes farm‐level data to evaluate the extent to which U.S. farm program benefits, particularly direct payments, bring about distortions in production. The issue is important in WTO negotiations and in the debate over the distortionary effects of decoupled (“green‐box”) payments. Our results suggest that the distortions brought about by AMTA payments, though statistically significant in some cases, are very modest. Larger effects are implied for market loss assistance payments. Probit models suggest that AMTA payments do not influence the likelihood that agents will acquire more land. Our results are reinforced using an aggregate county‐level acreage model.}, number={1}, journal={AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={Goodwin, BK and Mishra, AK}, year={2006}, month={Feb}, pages={73–89} }
 @article{serra_zilberman_goodwin_featherstone_2006, title={Effects of decoupling on the mean and variability of output}, volume={33}, DOI={10.1093/erae/jb1014}, number={3}, journal={European Review of Agricultural Economics}, author={Serra, T. and Zilberman, D. and Goodwin, B. K. and Featherstone, A.}, year={2006}, pages={269–288} }
 @article{serra_gil_goodwin_2006, title={Local polynomial fitting and spatial price relationships: price transmission in EU pork markets}, volume={33}, DOI={10.1093/erae/jb1013}, number={3}, journal={European Review of Agricultural Economics}, author={Serra, T. and Gil, J. M. and Goodwin, B. K.}, year={2006}, pages={415–436} }
 @article{mishra_goodwin_2006, title={Revenue insurance purchase decisions of farmers}, volume={38}, ISSN={["0003-6846"]}, DOI={10.1080/00036840500367724}, abstractNote={The objective of this study is to evaluate farm, household, and financial characteristics of cash grain farmers’ decisions of whether to purchase revenue insurance. Using farm-level data these characteristics were identified by estimating a logit model of revenue insurance purchase decisions by farm operators. Results indicate that farm operators with the ability to self-insure through accumulation of sufficient wealth reserves measured in terms of the ratio of debts-to-assets, operators with off-farm income, and participation in production and marketing contracts, are more likely to pursue these strategies as a substitute for federal revenue insurance programmes. Further, study finds that older and wealthy cash grain farmers are less likely to buy revenue insurance.}, number={2}, journal={APPLIED ECONOMICS}, author={Mishra, AK and Goodwin, BK}, year={2006}, pages={149–159} }
 @article{serra_goodwin_featherstone_2005, title={Agricultural policy reform and off-farm labour decisions}, volume={56}, ISSN={["1477-9552"]}, DOI={10.1111/j.1477-9552.2005.00004.x}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={2}, journal={JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={Serra, T and Goodwin, BK and Featherstone, AM}, year={2005}, month={Jul}, pages={271–285} }
 @article{goodwin_mishra_2005, title={Another look at decoupling: Additional evidence on the production effects of direct payments}, volume={87}, ISSN={["0002-9092"]}, DOI={10.1111/j.1467-8276.2005.00808.x}, abstractNote={An important shift in U.S. agricultural policy occurred with the 1996 Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform (FAIR) Act. Although the actual intent and effects of the Act remain a topic of debate, many observers believed that the 1996 legislation signaled a transition toward a new policy environment characterized by diminished government involvement in agricultural markets. Perhaps the biggest change in policy under the Act pertained to the use of fixed, decoupled payments (called “production flexibility contract” or “Agricultural Market Transition Act” [AMTA] payments). Under the terms of the FAIR Act, AMTA payments were intended to decline each year until the FAIR Act expired in 2002. However, periods of low prices and localized yield shortfalls during the late 1990s led Congress to pass supplemental, ad hoc payments to farmers. These payments, known as “Market Loss Assistance,” were also decoupled since they were paid on the basis of historical base acreage and thus carried no current production requirements. These payments were, however, tied to market prices in that they were a response to poor market conditions.}, number={5}, journal={AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={Goodwin, Barry K. and Mishra, Ashok K.}, year={2005}, pages={1200–1210} }
 @article{goodwin_schnepf_dohlman_2005, title={Modelling soybean prices in a changing policy environment}, volume={37}, ISSN={["1466-4283"]}, DOI={10.1080/00036840412331315060}, abstractNote={Accurate forecasts of commodity prices are an important ingredient in the policy formation process. A commodity price forecasting procedure used routinely by the US Department of Agriculture in their policy and market analysis activities is a simple, linear, reduced-form regression model that predicts season-average farm prices (SAFP) using policy variables and the ratio of total ending stocks to use. This approach is extended to the soybean SAFP to estimate a benchmark model using annual data. Also several specification issues related to this estimation framework are addressed. Evaluation suggests that the standard forecasting procedure may be affected by the fact that the ratio of stocks to use is endogenous to prices. In addition, important structural changes are revealed in these relationships over time. A model is then considered that allows parameters to shift gradually. Improvements in the accuracy of model forecasts allowed by this parameter switching technique are identified and discussed. In addition, the exact nature of the structural shifts is evaluated using dynamic impulse response functions.}, number={3}, journal={APPLIED ECONOMICS}, author={Goodwin, BK and Schnepf, R and Dohlman, E}, year={2005}, month={Feb}, pages={253–263} }
 @article{serra_zilberman_goodwin_hyvonen_2005, title={Replacement of agricultural price supports by area payments in the European Union and the effects on pesticide use}, volume={87}, ISSN={["1467-8276"]}, DOI={10.1111/j.1467-8276.2005.00775.x}, abstractNote={This article determines the contribution of recent European Union agricultural policy reforms on the use of pesticides. Our theoretical model extends the multioutput generalization of the Lichtenberg—Zilberman damage control technology model developed by Chambers and Lichtenberg. Our empirical analysis uses farm‐level data for a sample of French farms. Results suggest that price effects on the use of pesticides are always more elastic than area payment effects. This indicates that policy reforms consisting of a reduction in price supports in favor of area payments, may reduce application of crop protection inputs. Such policy changes, which represent a certain degree of decoupling, took place under the 1992 Common Agricultural Policy reforms.}, number={4}, journal={AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={Serra, T and Zilberman, D and Goodwin, BK and Hyvonen, K}, year={2005}, month={Nov}, pages={870–884} }
 @article{solakoglu_goodwin_2005, title={The effects of railroad development on price convergence among the states of the USA from 1866 to 1906}, volume={37}, ISSN={["0003-6846"]}, DOI={10.1080/0003684052000344849}, abstractNote={This study examines the effects of the reduced transaction costs on the price behaviours in the second half of the nineteenth century, where declines in transaction costs were mainly caused by railroad development during this period. It employs a panel test introduced by Levin and Lin (1992) on the convergence of wheat and corn prices using a panel of 48 US states from 1866 to 1906. The results show that, by decreasing transportation costs, railroads played an important role in price convergence among states of the USA for wheat and corn during the postbellum period.}, number={15}, journal={APPLIED ECONOMICS}, author={Solakoglu, EG and Goodwin, BK}, year={2005}, month={Aug}, pages={1747–1761} }
 @article{goodwin_vandeveer_deal_2004, title={An empirical analysis of acreage effects of participation in the Federal Crop Insurance program}, volume={86}, ISSN={["0002-9092"]}, DOI={10.1111/j.0002-9092.2004.00653.x}, abstractNote={The extent to which crop insurance programs have resulted in additional land being brought into production has been a topic of considerable debate. We consider multiequation structural models of acreage response, insurance participation, CRP enrollment, and input usage. Our analysis focuses on corn and soybean production in the Corn Belt and wheat and barley production in the Upper Great Plains. Our results confirm that increased participation in insurance programs provokes statistically significant acreage responses in some cases, though the response is very modest in every case. In the most extreme cases, 30% decreases in premiums as a result of increased subsidies provoke acreage increases ranging from 0.2% to 1.1%. A number of policy simulations involving increases in premium subsidies are considered.}, number={4}, journal={AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={Goodwin, BK and Vandeveer, ML and Deal, JL}, year={2004}, month={Nov}, pages={1058–1077} }
 @article{goodwin_mishra_2004, title={Farming efficiency and the determinants of multiple job holding by farm operators}, volume={86}, ISSN={["0002-9092"]}, DOI={10.1111/j.0002-9092.2004.00614.x}, abstractNote={The extent to which farm families engage inoff-farm employment activities is a topic ofcentralimportancetounderstandingthefinan-cial well-being of farm households. The degreeof financial stress experienced by U.S. farmfamilies is always a concern to policy makers.Yet,policyconsiderationsoftenignorethesub-stantial involvement of most farm householdsin nonfarm labor markets. It has been shownthat,whentheentirefarmhouseholdisconsid-ered, the “average” U.S. farm household hasa higher total income and much greater assetholdings than is the case for nonfarm house-holds (see, e.g., Goodwin). Mishra et al. pre-sented data for 2000 suggesting that, when allfarms are considered, 92% of total householdincomecamefromnonfarmsources.Ofcourse,such figures depend on how one chooses to de-fineafarm.Whenoneconsiderslargeandverylarge commercial farms, the share of farm in-come in total household income ranges from50 to 75%.}, number={3}, journal={AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={Goodwin, BK and Mishra, AK}, year={2004}, month={Aug}, pages={722–729} }
 @article{serra_goodwin_2004, title={Regional integration of nineteenth century US egg markets}, volume={55}, ISSN={["1477-9552"]}, DOI={10.1111/j.1477-9552.2004.tb00079.x}, abstractNote={Multivariate asymmetric threshold vector error correction models are applied to a historical analysis of the regional integration of U.S. markets for eggs at the turn of the nineteenth century. Two general approaches to the selection of the thresholds are considered. The first criterion ignores the cross equation correlation while the latter explicitly accounts for it. Our results suggest that threshold behaviour characterises spatial price linkages between the markets analysed.}, number={1}, journal={JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={Serra, T and Goodwin, BK}, year={2004}, month={Mar}, pages={59–74} }
 @article{craig_goodwin_grennes_2004, title={The Effect of Mechanical Refrigeration on Nutrition in the United States}, volume={28}, ISSN={0145-5532 1527-8034}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0145553200013183}, DOI={10.1017/S0145553200013183}, abstractNote={Although the principles of refrigeration have been understood for thousands of years, the widespread use of mechanical refrigeration in the processing, shipping, and storing of perishable commodities began only in the 1890s. Because refrigeration facilitated the hygienic handling and storage of perishables, it promoted output growth, consumption, and nutrition through the spatial and temporal integration of markets for perishables. We estimate the impact of mechanical refrigeration on output and consumption, and hence on human nutrition, concentrating on the contribution from refrigerated dairy products, an important source of nutrients, particularly proteins and calcium. We conclude that the adoption of refrigeration in the late-nineteenth-century United States increased dairy consumption by 1.7% and overall protein intake by 1.25% annually after the 1890s. The increase in protein consumption was particularly important to the growth of the human organism. According to our lower-bound estimates, refrigeration directly contributed at least 5.1% of the increase in adult stature of the postrefrigeration cohorts, and combined with the indirect effects associated with improvements in the quality of nutrients and the reduction in illness, the overall impact was considerably larger.}, number={2}, journal={Social Science History}, publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, author={Craig, Lee A. and Goodwin, Barry and Grennes, Thomas}, year={2004}, pages={325–336} }
 @article{craig_goodwin_grennes_2004, title={The effect of mechanical refrigeration on nutrition in the United States}, volume={28}, ISSN={["1527-8034"]}, DOI={10.1215/01455532-28-2-325}, number={2}, journal={SOCIAL SCIENCE HISTORY}, author={Craig, LA and Goodwin, B and Grennes, T}, year={2004}, pages={325–336} }
 @article{thompson *_schmitz_iwai_goodwin_2004, title={The real rate of protection: the income and insurance effects of agricultural policy}, volume={36}, ISSN={0003-6846 1466-4283}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/0003684042000279744}, DOI={10.1080/0003684042000279744}, abstractNote={Agricultural price policies in developed countries aim at protecting farmers against both low and volatile world market prices. However, traditional indicators of protection only refer to the income (level) effect of policy. Following other research, it is argued that public policy can also yield an insurance (stabilizing) effect. In this paper a way to measure these dual effects is proposed. The method is illustrated with wheat market data for the USA and the European Union. Strong evidence is found that the insurance effect is an important component of protection, albeit a small one relative to the income effect. Policy support provided higher income and lower insurance effects in the EU than in the USA. For both markets, policy reforms in the 1990s led to significantly reduced income effects and smaller insurance effects. Without accounting for the influence of policy on income variability, traditional measures of protection will understate the real rate of protection.}, number={16}, journal={Applied Economics}, publisher={Informa UK Limited}, author={Thompson *, Stanley R. and Schmitz, P. Michael and Iwai, Nobuyuki and Goodwin, Barry K.}, year={2004}, month={Sep}, pages={1851–1858} }
 @article{goodwin_2003, title={Does risk matter? Discussion}, volume={85}, ISSN={["1467-8276"]}, DOI={10.1111/j.0092-5853.2003.00539.x}, abstractNote={American Journal of Agricultural EconomicsVolume 85, Issue 5 p. 1257-1258 Principal Paper Session Does Risk Matter? Discussion Barry K. Goodwin, Barry K. Goodwin Professor Departments of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Economics, North Carolina State UniversitySearch for more papers by this author Barry K. Goodwin, Barry K. Goodwin Professor Departments of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Economics, North Carolina State UniversitySearch for more papers by this author First published: 01 December 2003 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0092-5853.2003.00539.xCitations: 3 This article was presented in a principal paper session at the AAEA annual meeting (Montreal, Quebec, July 2003). The articles in these sessions are not subjected to the journal's standard refereeing process. Read the full textAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditWechat No abstract is available for this article.Citing Literature Volume85, Issue5December 2003Pages 1257-1258 RelatedInformation}, number={5}, journal={AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={Goodwin, BK}, year={2003}, pages={1257–1258} }
 @article{serra_goodwin_2003, title={Price transmission and asymmetric adjustment in the Spanish dairy sector}, volume={35}, ISSN={["0003-6846"]}, DOI={10.1080/00036840310001628774}, abstractNote={Asymmetric threshold vector error correction models are applied to monthly price data to analyse price relationships and patterns of transmission among farm and retail markets for a variety of dairy products in Spain. The results suggest that asymmetries affect a conspicuous part of the raw milk processed in Spain. Implications for the organizational structure of Spanish dairy markets are offered.}, number={18}, journal={APPLIED ECONOMICS}, author={Serra, T and Goodwin, BK}, year={2003}, month={Dec}, pages={1889–1899} }
 @article{goodwin_holt_2002, title={Parametric and semiparametric modeling of the off-farm labor supply of agrarian households in transition Bulgaria}, volume={84}, ISSN={["0002-9092"]}, DOI={10.1111/1467-8276.00252}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={1}, journal={AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={Goodwin, BK and Holt, MT}, year={2002}, month={Feb}, pages={184–209} }
 @article{goodwin_2001, title={Problems with market insurance in agriculture}, volume={83}, ISSN={["0002-9092"]}, DOI={10.1111/0002-9092.00184}, abstractNote={Crop and revenue insurance programs have become an increasingly significant component of U.S. agricultural policy in the last several years. A myriad of insurance programs are currently available to producers and many more are under development. These programs have been shaped by a series of legislative actions intended to increase participation by increasing program benefits and expanding the coverage of programs. The 2000 Agricultural Risk Protection Act (ARPA) is the latest development in the ever-expanding crop insurance program. The Act provides $8.2 billion for expanding participation through increased premium subsidies and for development of new insurance programs. Although it is tempting to consider the U.S. federal crop insurance program within the context of private insurance markets, it is important to recognize that the program is an important vehicle for transferring economic benefits from the treasury to the farm sector. Over the 1981-99 period, for each dollar paid in by a farmer, an average of $1.88 was received back in indemnity payments.' Few private insurance programs operate under such conditions, at least for very long. Any comparison to private insurance markets, as is our task in this article, must at the outset recognize that the U.S. crop insurance program is first and foremost a government program intended to convey economic benefits to a particular segment of the economy--the U.S. farm sector.}, number={3}, journal={AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={Goodwin, BK}, year={2001}, month={Aug}, pages={643–649} }
 @article{goodwin_piggott_2001, title={Spatial market integration in the presence of threshold effects}, volume={83}, ISSN={["0002-9092"]}, DOI={10.1111/0002-9092.00157}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={2}, journal={AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={Goodwin, BK and Piggott, NE}, year={2001}, month={May}, pages={302–317} }
 @article{goodwin_mishra_2000, title={An analysis of risk premia in U.S. farm-level interest rates}, volume={60}, ISBN={0002-1466}, DOI={10.1108/00214660080001107}, abstractNote={ Much farm financial risk research has involved the application of “credit‐scoring” models. We approach the issue of measuring financial risk by using the actual interest rates charged on agricultural loans reported in the USDA’s ARMS survey as market‐based measures of the financial risk associated with individual farm operations. A simultaneous equations model relates rates to several farm, producer, and lender characteristics. Because individual loans in our sample have different dates of origination, deviations of individual rates from market rates are considered. Our results indicate that risk (as perceived by lenders) tends to be higher for farms with less wealth (net worth) and more loans. Farm operators who live on their operations are considered by lenders to be less risky. Farm diversification appears to be correlated with less financial risk. Significant differences in agricultural lending rates across different types of lenders were also revealed, with the highest rates being charged by commercial banks and savings and loans. A key element of our analysis is development of a probability‐weighted bootstrap estimator that permits consistent inferences to be drawn from the stratified ARMS data.}, journal={Agricultural Finance Review}, author={Goodwin, B. K. and Mishra, A. K.}, year={2000}, pages={1} }
 @article{goodwin_schnepf_2000, title={Determinants of endogenous price risk in corn and wheat futures markets}, volume={20}, ISSN={["0270-7314"]}, DOI={10.1002/1096-9934(200009)20:8<753::AID-FUT3>3.0.CO;2-F}, abstractNote={This analysis evaluates determinants of price variability in U.S. corn and wheat futures markets. The analysis is conducted in two segments. In the first segment, conditional heteroscedasticity models of price variability are estimated and used to examine the extent to which market conditions influence price variability. The second component of the analysis uses nonstructural vector autoregressive models to evaluate factors related to implied volatilities calculated from options premia. Our results indicate that corn and wheat price variability is significantly related to the ratio of use to stocks, futures market activity, and growing conditions. In addition, important seasonal and autoregressive effects are revealed. Our results provide an intuitive interpretation for GARCH and ARCH effects, which are often demonstrated for futures price data. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 20:753–774, 2000}, number={8}, journal={JOURNAL OF FUTURES MARKETS}, author={Goodwin, BK and Schnepf, R}, year={2000}, month={Sep}, pages={753–774} }
 @article{ghura_goodwin_2000, title={Determinants of private investment: a cross-regional empirical investigation}, volume={32}, ISSN={["1466-4283"]}, DOI={10.1080/000368400425044}, abstractNote={This study investigates the determinants of private investment in Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and Latin America with panel data for the period 1975-1992. Econometric tests indicated a preference for the random effects estimation procedure over other alternatives. The results, with pooled data for all the 31 countries in the sample, confirm some results found elsewhere in the empirical literature. Namely, private investment in developing countries is stimulated by real GDP growth, increases in government investment, improvements in financial intermediation, reductions in credit to the government, and declines in world interest rates. Another interesting result relates to the important role played by educational development in stimulating private investment. Nevertheless, statistically significant adverse effects of external debt on private investment found by other studies could not be confirmed by this study. In addition, the results for the full sample of countries are by no means common across the regions. While real GDP growth stimulated private investment in Asia and Latin America, its effect was not significant in SSA. Also, while government investment stimulated private investment in SSA, it had the opposite effect in Asia and Latin America. In addition, private investment was stimulated by increases in private sector credit in Asia and SSA, but not in Latin America. Also, increases in credit to the government had significant adverse effects on private investment in SSA and Latin America. Further, the adverse effects of external shocks were statistically significant only in SSA, a result that confirms the view that the region is vulnerable to these shocks.}, number={14}, journal={APPLIED ECONOMICS}, author={Ghura, D and Goodwin, B}, year={2000}, month={Nov}, pages={1819–1829} }
 @article{goodwin_2000, title={Instability and risk in U.S. agriculture.}, volume={18}, number={1}, journal={Journal of Agribusiness}, author={Goodwin, B. K.}, year={2000}, pages={71–89} }
 @article{goodwin_roberts_coble_2000, title={Measurement of price risk in revenue insurance: Implications of distributional assumptions}, volume={25}, number={1}, journal={Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics}, author={Goodwin, B. K. and Roberts, M. C. and Coble, K. H.}, year={2000}, pages={195–214} }
 @article{ker_goodwin_2000, title={Nonparametric estimation of crop insurance rates revisited}, volume={82}, ISSN={["0002-9092"]}, DOI={10.1111/0002-9092.00039}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={2}, journal={AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={Ker, AP and Goodwin, BK}, year={2000}, month={May}, pages={463–478} }
 @article{metcalfe_goodwin_1999, title={An empirical analysis of the determinants of trade policy protection in the US manufacturing sector}, volume={21}, ISSN={["0161-8938"]}, DOI={10.1016/S0161-8938(97)00063-X}, abstractNote={This paper evaluates observed levels of trade policy protection using pooled data for 16 U.S. manufacturing industries. The results suggest that protection is most likely to occur for geographically concentrated industries with small numbers of firms and workers, low wages, few exports, and a high degree of value-added processing.}, number={2}, journal={JOURNAL OF POLICY MODELING}, author={Metcalfe, MR and Goodwin, BK}, year={1999}, month={Mar}, pages={153–165} }
 @article{goodwin_holt_1999, title={Price transmission and asymmetric adjustment in the US beef sector}, volume={81}, ISSN={["0002-9092"]}, DOI={10.2307/1244026}, abstractNote={The U.S. livestock sector has experienced numerous structural changes in recent years. For example, the meatpacking industry has experienced many mergers and acquisitions leading to significant increases in industry concentration. In particular, the four-firm concentration ratio for steer and heifer slaughter, a frequently cited statistic and an important indicator of industry concentration, increased from 35.7% in 1980 to 79.8% in 1997 (USDA). There have also been significant regional shifts in livestock production and changes in marketing practices, with decreased use of public markets in many areas. For some products, traditional auction markets have been largely replaced by contract production and sales. Cattle inventories have also trended downward over the last two decades. This has been accompanied by decreases in the number of producers and, in some cases, with significant increases in the scale of operations. The vertical transmission of shocks among various levels of the market is an important characteristic describing the overall operation of the market. Of course, price is the primary mechanism by which various levels of the market are linked. The extent of adjustment and speed with which shocks are transmitted among producer, wholesale, and retail market prices is an important factor reflecting the actions of market participants at alternative market levels. The nature, speed, and extent of adjustments to market shocks may also have important implications for marketing margins, spreads, and mark-up pricing practices. An extensive literature has examined mar-}, number={3}, journal={AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={Goodwin, BK and Holt, MT}, year={1999}, month={Aug}, pages={630–637} }
 @article{al awad_goodwin_1998, title={Dynamic linkages among real interest rates in international capital markets}, volume={17}, ISSN={["0261-5606"]}, DOI={10.1016/S0261-5606(98)00032-1}, abstractNote={Short-run and long-run dynamic linkages among weekly real interest rates for G-10 countries are examined using a variety of time-series tests. These tests give special attention to the time-series properties of nominal interest rates, ex-ante expected rates of inflation and real interest rates. Term structure information is used to recover a theoretically consistent measure of ex-ante expected inflation. In-sample and out-of-sample Granger causality tests are also examined to evaluate lead/lag relationships among real interest rates. The results provide strong support for well-integrated markets, particularly in the long run. The results imply leadership roles for the US in international asset markets.}, number={6}, journal={JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL MONEY AND FINANCE}, author={Al Awad, M and Goodwin, BK}, year={1998}, month={Dec}, pages={881–907} }
 @article{mishra_goodwin_1998, title={Income risk and allocation of labour time: an empirical investigation}, volume={30}, ISSN={["0003-6846"]}, DOI={10.1080/000368498324634}, abstractNote={This study investigates the behaviour of risk averse farm operators in response to farm income and employment variability. Economic theory maintains that greater farm income variability should increase off-farm labour supply. On the other hand greater off-farm employment variability should decrease off-farm labour supply. This effect is confirmed for a sample of farm operators in North Carolina and Kansas using fixed and random effects models. Off-farm employment of farm operators is also found to be significantly influenced by age, efficiency, asset value, and off-farm wage rate.}, number={12}, journal={APPLIED ECONOMICS}, author={Mishra, AK and Goodwin, BK}, year={1998}, month={Dec}, pages={1549–1555} }
 @article{goodwin_ker_1998, title={Nonparametric estimation of crop yield distributions: Implications for rating group-risk crop insurance contracts}, volume={80}, ISSN={["0002-9092"]}, DOI={10.2307/3180276}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={1}, journal={AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={Goodwin, BK and Ker, AP}, year={1998}, month={Feb}, pages={139–153} }
 @article{goodwin_ker_1998, title={Revenue insurance: a new dimension in risk management}, volume={13}, number={3, i.e. 4}, journal={Choices (Ames, Iowa)}, author={Goodwin, B. K. and Ker, A. P.}, year={1998}, pages={24–27} }
 @article{goodwin_grennes_1998, title={Tsarist Russia and the world wheat market}, volume={35}, ISSN={["0014-4983"]}, DOI={10.1006/exeh.1998.0706}, abstractNote={Abstract Russian grain trade, production, and consumption during the Tsarist period (1861–1914) is empirically evaluated. Russia was the world's largest wheat exporter during this period. Tsarist Russian agriculture is often characterized in the literature as having been “backward” and not well-integrated with international markets. In contrast to this view, this analysis finds that the Russian grain trade was significantly influenced by international prices and was well-integrated with the international commercial wheat trade. Our results indicate that after 1880 regional wheat markets in Russia were linked and that a strong connection had been established between Russian ports and cities at the center of the world wheat trade. Deviations from equilibrium price relationships were found to be eliminated more rapidly for trade between Odessa and England than for wheat trade between New York and England. In addition, grain trade is shown to have been positively influenced by the development of the rail system.}, number={4}, journal={EXPLORATIONS IN ECONOMIC HISTORY}, author={Goodwin, BK and Grennes, TJ}, year={1998}, month={Oct}, pages={405–430} }
 @article{goodwin_schurle_norman_freyenberger_bloomquist_regehr_1997, title={Determinants of Kansas farmers' participation in on-farm research}, volume={29}, DOI={10.1017/s1074070800007872}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={2}, journal={Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics}, author={Goodwin, B. K. and Schurle, B. W. and Norman, D. W. and Freyenberger, S. G. and Bloomquist, L. E. and Regehr, D. L.}, year={1997}, pages={385–396} }
 @article{mishra_goodwin_1997, title={Farm income variability and the supply of off-farm labor}, volume={79}, ISSN={["1467-8276"]}, DOI={10.2307/1244429}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={3}, journal={AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={Mishra, AK and Goodwin, BK}, year={1997}, month={Aug}, pages={880–887} }
 @article{holt_goodwin_1997, title={Generalized habit formation in inverse almost ideal demand systems: an application to meat expenditures in the U.S.}, volume={22}, DOI={10.1007/bf01205360}, number={1997}, journal={Empirical Economics}, author={Holt, M. T. and Goodwin, B. K.}, year={1997}, pages={293–320} }
 @article{goodwin_grennes_leetmaa_1996, title={Agricultural Reform in Russia}, number={3}, journal={Choices (Ames, Iowa)}, author={Goodwin, B. and Grennes, T. and Leetmaa, S.}, year={1996}, pages={25} }
 @article{goodwin_kastens_1996, title={An analysis of marketing frequency by Kansas crop producers}, volume={18}, DOI={10.2307/1349591}, abstractNote={Price and yield risk are among the most important factors influencing the production and marketing actions of agricultural producers. Price risk is especially important to agricultural producers. In the survey which is the focus of this study, 67 percent of Kansas crop farmers indicated that output and/or input price uncertainty was the major source of risk faced by their farm operation. Price risk management is of continuing interest to producers as well as to academic researchers and extension educators. Methods for managing price risk include forward pricing, hedging, options trading, and commodity storage. Marketing practices of agricultural producers have received considerable attention in recent years. Much of this research has focused on producers' adoption of forward and futures pricing methods. Hill; Asplund, Forster, and Stout; Makus et al.; Shapiro and Brorsen; and Goodwin and Schroeder evaluated producers' adoption of forward pricing techniques. Through this research a better understanding of the characteristics of producers associated with one dimension of agricultural marketing, forward pricing, has emerged. In general, these studies have revealed that the adoption of forward pricing techniques increases with farm size, producer education, and financial leverage. Although recent research has enhanced understanding of forward pricing adoption, almost no information exists about the frequency of marketing (the total number of times in a crop year that a portion of the crop is sold). While state-wide crop marketing percentages are readily available by month, little is known about individual producer behavior, and in particular marketing frequency. Marketing and risk management plans have become increasingly complex and in many cases involve more frequent marketings. Knowledge about the relationships between producers' chara teristics and their marketings frequencies will add to the current understanding of producer marke ing practices. This research should be of interest to those providing marketing advisory serv ces, helping them to better target their clientele. F r example, a marketing advisory firm whose comparative advantage lies in multiplemarketings strategies should be especially interes ed in understanding factors that may be associated with marketing frequency. The objective of this analysis is to evaluate the frequency of crop marketings for a sample of 572 Kansas wheat, corn, milo (grain sorghum), and soybean producers.' Characteristics of the producers and farm operations will be evaluated for their effects on the frequency of marketing.}, number={4}, journal={Review of Agricultural Economics}, author={Goodwin, B. K. and Kastens, T. L.}, year={1996}, pages={575} }
 @article{goodwin_corral_1996, title={Bettor handicapping and market efficiency in greyhound parimutuel gambling}, volume={28}, ISSN={["1466-4283"]}, DOI={10.1080/000368496328029}, abstractNote={This paper evaluates the speculative efficiency of the parimutuel gambling market for greyhound racing. The efficiency tests consider the informational content of bettor handicapping data as well as the forecasts of professional handicappers and the aggregate market. Previous studies have failed to consider the wide range of performance data that are available for bettor handicapping activities. Two tests of efficiency are considered. The first test evaluates the in-sample explanatory power of the handicapper's forecasts and handicapping data relative to the aggregate market's forecasts, as indicated by the final odds. The second test compares simulated rates of return to hypothetical gambling obtained from ex ante finish forecasts to the efficient rates of return that are dictated by the track's commission. Significant speculative inefficiencies are revealed. The second test suggests the existence of above-normal returns to gambling from using conditional forecasts generated from bettor handicapping data.}, number={9}, journal={APPLIED ECONOMICS}, author={Goodwin, BK and Corral, LR}, year={1996}, month={Sep}, pages={1181–1190} }
 @article{goodwin_featherstone_1995, title={AN EMPIRICAL-ANALYSIS OF PARTICIPATION IN US GOVERNMENT FARM PROGRAMS}, volume={27}, ISSN={["0003-6846"]}, DOI={10.1080/00036849500000006}, abstractNote={Factors affecting the participation of individual Kansas farms in government programmes are considered. A sample drawn from over 1600 Kansas farms for nine years is used in the context of a simultaneous equation Tobit regression to investigate the effects of various factors on the probability and expected level of participation in farm programmes. The results suggest that differences in farm sizes, incomes, types and farming practices influence participation in government programmes. Small, sole-proprietor, livestock operations with low debt levels receive the lowest levels of support. Conversely, large corporate crop farms receive the highest levels of government support.}, number={1}, journal={APPLIED ECONOMICS}, author={GOODWIN, BK and FEATHERSTONE, AM}, year={1995}, month={Jan}, pages={39–50} }
 @article{goodwin_brester_1995, title={STRUCTURAL-CHANGE IN FACTOR DEMAND RELATIONSHIPS IN THE UNITED-STATES FOOD AND KINDRED PRODUCTS INDUSTRY}, volume={77}, ISSN={["0002-9092"]}, DOI={10.2307/1243890}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={1}, journal={AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={GOODWIN, BK and BRESTER, GW}, year={1995}, month={Feb}, pages={69–79} }
 @book{goodwin_smith_1995, title={The economics of crop insurance and disaster aid}, publisher={Washington, DC: AEI Press}, author={Goodwin, Barry K. and Smith, Vincent H.}, year={1995} }
 @article{goodwin_schroeder_1994, title={HUMAN-CAPITAL, PRODUCER EDUCATION-PROGRAMS, AND THE ADOPTION OF FORWARD-PRICING METHODS}, volume={76}, ISSN={["0002-9092"]}, DOI={10.2307/1243753}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={4}, journal={AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS}, author={GOODWIN, BK and SCHROEDER, TC}, year={1994}, month={Nov}, pages={936–947} }