@article{cho_brown_gross_tregeagle_2024, title={Developing practical measures of the price of pesticide resistance: A flexible computational framework with global sensitivity analysis}, volume={3}, ISSN={2769-2485 2769-2485}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jaa2.107}, DOI={10.1002/jaa2.107}, abstractNote={AbstractPesticide resistance poses an increasing challenge for agricultural sustainability. Pesticide susceptibility is a depletable biological resource, but resistance management rarely quantifies marginal, forward‐looking economic costs to users of depletion. To facilitate the development of such costs, we use a generic stochastic bioeconomic model of resistance evolution in a crop pest population, stochastic dynamic programming, and global sensitivity analysis to analyze the “marginal user costs” of resistance. The most impactful parameters are population density dependence and pesticide prices. The least impactful is the fitness cost of resistance, which is noteworthy because of prior emphasis on this parameter in the resistance management literature.}, number={1}, journal={Journal of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Cho, Chanheung and Brown, Zachary and Gross, Kevin and Tregeagle, Daniel}, year={2024}, month={Feb}, pages={212–227} }
 @article{hollingsworth_cho_vella_roh_sass_lloyd_brown_2024, title={Economic optimization of <i>Wolbachia</i>-infected <i>Aedes aegypti</i> release to prevent dengue}, volume={4}, ISSN={["1526-4998"]}, DOI={10.1002/ps.8086}, abstractNote={Abstract BACKGROUND Dengue virus, primarily transmitted by the Aedes aegypti mosquito, is a major public health concern affecting ≈3.83 billion people worldwide. Recent releases of Wolbachia ‐transinfected Ae. aegypti in several cities worldwide have shown that it can reduce dengue transmission. However, these releases are costly, and, to date, no framework has been proposed for determining economically optimal release strategies that account for both costs associated with disease risk and releases. RESULTS We present a flexible stochastic dynamic programming framework for determining optimal release schedules for Wolbachia ‐transinfected mosquitoes that balances the cost of dengue infection with the costs of rearing and releasing transinfected mosquitoes. Using an ordinary differential equation model of Wolbachia and dengue in a hypothetical city loosely describing areas at risk of new dengue epidemics, we determined that an all‐or‐nothing release strategy that quickly brings Wolbachia to fixation is often the optimal solution. Based on this, we examined the optimal facility size, finding that it was inelastic with respect to the mosquito population size, with a 100% increase in population size resulting in a 50–67% increase in optimal facility size. Furthermore, we found that these results are robust to mosquito life‐history parameters and are mostly determined by the mosquito population size and the fitness costs associated with Wolbachia . CONCLUSIONS These results reinforce that Wolbachia ‐transinfected mosquitoes can reduce the cost of dengue epidemics. Furthermore, they emphasize the importance of determining the size of the target population and fitness costs associated with Wolbachia before releases occur. © 2024 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.}, journal={PEST MANAGEMENT SCIENCE}, author={Hollingsworth, Brandon D. and Cho, Chanheung and Vella, Michael and Roh, Hyeongyul and Sass, Julian and Lloyd, Alun L. and Brown, Zachary S.}, year={2024}, month={Apr} }