@article{collins_sanchez_terando_stillwell_mitasova_sebastian_meentemeyer_2022, title={Predicting flood damage probability across the conterminous United States}, volume={17}, ISSN={["1748-9326"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4f0f}, DOI={10.1088/1748-9326/ac4f0f}, abstractNote={Abstract
               Floods are the leading cause of natural disaster damages in the United States, with billions of dollars incurred every year in the form of government payouts, property damages, and agricultural losses. The Federal Emergency Management Agency oversees the delineation of floodplains to mitigate damages, but disparities exist between locations designated as high risk and where flood damages occur due to land use and climate changes and incomplete floodplain mapping. We harnessed publicly available geospatial datasets and random forest algorithms to analyze the spatial distribution and underlying drivers of flood damage probability (FDP) caused by excessive rainfall and overflowing water bodies across the conterminous United States. From this, we produced the first spatially complete map of FDP for the nation, along with spatially explicit standard errors for four selected cities. We trained models using the locations of historical reported flood damage events (n = 71 434) and a suite of geospatial predictors (e.g. flood severity, climate, socio-economic exposure, topographic variables, soil properties, and hydrologic characteristics). We developed independent models for each hydrologic unit code level 2 watershed and generated a FDP for each 100 m pixel. Our model classified damage or no damage with an average area under the curve accuracy of 0.75; however, model performance varied by environmental conditions, with certain land cover classes (e.g. forest) resulting in higher error rates than others (e.g. wetlands). Our results identified FDP hotspots across multiple spatial and regional scales, with high probabilities common in both inland and coastal regions. The highest flood damage probabilities tended to be in areas of low elevation, in close proximity to streams, with extreme precipitation, and with high urban road density. Given rapid environmental changes, our study demonstrates an efficient approach for updating FDP estimates across the nation.}, number={3}, journal={ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS}, author={Collins, Elyssa L. and Sanchez, Georgina M. and Terando, Adam and Stillwell, Charles C. and Mitasova, Helena and Sebastian, Antonia and Meentemeyer, Ross K.}, year={2022}, month={Mar} }
 @article{stillwell_hunt_page_baird_kennedy_2018, title={Stormwater management in nutrient-sensitive watersheds: a case study investigating impervious cover limits and pollutant-load regulations}, volume={78}, ISSN={["1996-9732"]}, DOI={10.2166/wst.2018.338}, abstractNote={Abstract
               The objective of this research project was to compare two stormwater management strategies within a nutrient-sensitive watershed: impervious cover limits versus pollutant-load regulations. A case study was conducted in the nutrient-sensitive Falls Lake watershed in North Carolina, USA, where a commercial fitness complex was constructed in a zone previously restricted to low-density housing. The Falls Lake watershed has a stormwater regulation that limits total nitrogen and total phosphorus export loads to 2.47 kg/ha/yr and 0.37 kg/ha/yr, respectively. Hydrology and water quality were monitored pre- and post-development to quantify changes to stormwater volumes, pollutant concentrations, and annual export loading rates. On-site stormwater control measures (SCMs) reduced nutrient export loading rates below the regulatory standard. However, increased stormwater volumes and nutrient export loading rates were observed from pervious surfaces that were disturbed during construction (total nitrogen increased from 2.06 to 4.24 kg/ha/yr, total phosphorus increased from 0.41 to 0.73 kg/ha/yr). Results from this case study suggest that (1) impervious cover limits do not adequately account for a parcel's nutrient export loads and (2) SCMs that reduce volume and treat pollutants can reduce nutrient export loads below regulatory levels in the Falls Lake watershed.}, number={3}, journal={WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY}, author={Stillwell, Charles C. and Hunt, William F., III and Page, Jonathan L. and Baird, Joshua B. and Kennedy, Shawn G.}, year={2018}, month={Aug}, pages={664–675} }