@article{schreck iii_vitart_camargo_camp_darlow_elsberry_gottschalck_gregory_hansen_jackson_et al._2023, title={Advances in tropical cyclone prediction on subseasonal time scales during 2019-2022}, volume={12}, ISSN={["2225-6032"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.06.004}, abstractNote={This review describes advances in understanding and forecasting tropical cyclone (TC) subseasonal variability during the past four years. A large effort by the scientific community has been in understanding the sources of predictability at subseasonal timescales beyond the well-known modulation of TC activity by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). In particular, the strong modulation of TC activity over the western North Pacific by the Boreal Summer Intra-Seasonal Oscillation (BSISO) has been documented. Progress has also been realized in understanding the role of tropical-extratropical interactions in improving subseasonal forecasts. In addition, several recent publications have shown that extratropical wave breaking may have a role in the genesis and development of TCs. Analyses of multi-model ensemble data sets such as the Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) and Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) have shown that the skill of S2S models in predicting the genesis of TCs varies strongly among models and regions but is often tied to their ability to simulate the MJO and its impacts. The skill in select models has led to an increase over the past four years in the number of forecasting centers issuing subseasonal TC forecasts using various techniques (statistical, statistical-dynamical and dynamical). More extensive verification studies have been published over the last four years, but often only for the North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific.}, number={2}, journal={TROPICAL CYCLONE RESEARCH AND REVIEW}, author={Schreck III, Carl J. and Vitart, Frederic and Camargo, Suzana J. and Camp, Joanne and Darlow, James and Elsberry, Russell and Gottschalck, Jon and Gregory, Paul and Hansen, Kurt and Jackson, Justyn and et al.}, year={2023}, month={Jun}, pages={136–150} }
 @article{klotzbach_schreck iii_compo_wood_oliver_bowen_bell_2023, title={Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on Continental United States Hurricane Landfalls}, volume={50}, ISSN={["1944-8007"]}, DOI={10.1029/2023GL102762}, abstractNote={The Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) significantly impacts North Atlantic hurricanes, with increased hurricane activity occurring when the MJO enhances convection over Africa and the tropical Indian Ocean and suppressed hurricane activity occurring when the MJO enhances convection over the tropical Pacific. Using data from 1905 to 2015, we find more tropical cyclones (TCs) make landfall in the continental United States when the MJO enhances tropical Indian Ocean convection. In addition, when the MJO enhances Western Pacific and Western Hemisphere convection, TC activity is preferentially favored in the Caribbean, leading to more Gulf Coast landfalls. As MJO‐enhanced convection moves to the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent, more storms form in the tropical Atlantic, favoring Florida Peninsula and East Coast landfalls. The MJO's TC steering wind modulation appears to be secondary to its genesis location modulation.}, number={7}, journal={GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS}, author={Klotzbach, Philip J. and Schreck III, Carl J. J. and Compo, Gilbert P. and Wood, Kimberly M. and Oliver, Eric C. J. and Bowen, Steven G. and Bell, Michael M.}, year={2023}, month={Apr} }
 @article{aiyyer_schreck_2023, title={Surface Wind Speeds and Enthalpy Fluxes During Tropical Cyclone Formation From Easterly Waves: A CYGNSS View}, volume={50}, ISSN={["1944-8007"]}, DOI={10.1029/2022GL100823}, abstractNote={We examined the Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) retrievals of surface wind speeds and enthalpy fluxes in African easterly waves that led to the formation of 30 Atlantic tropical cyclones during 2018–2021. Lag composites show a cyclonic proto‐vortex as early as 3 days prior to tropical cyclogenesis. The enthalpy flux distribution does not vary substantially before cyclogenesis, but subsequently, there is a marked increase in the extreme upper values. In the composites, a negative radial gradient of enthalpy fluxes becomes apparent 2–3 days before cyclogenesis. These results—based on novel data blending satellite retrievals and global reanalysis—support the findings from recent studies that the spin‐up of tropical cyclones is associated with a shift of peak convection toward the vortex core and an inward increase of enthalpy fluxes.}, number={6}, journal={GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS}, author={Aiyyer, Anantha and Schreck, Carl}, year={2023}, month={Mar} }
 @article{diamond_schreck_2023, title={THE TROPICS}, volume={104}, ISSN={["1520-0477"]}, DOI={10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0078.1}, abstractNote={© 2023 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses). Corresponding author: Howard J. Diamond / howard.diamond@noaa.gov}, number={9}, journal={BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY}, author={Diamond, H. J. and Schreck, C. J.}, year={2023}, month={Sep}, pages={S207–S270} }
 @article{klotzbach_wood_bell_blake_bowen_caron_collins_gibney_schreck_truchelut_2022, title={A Hyperactive End to the Atlantic Hurricane Season October-November 2020}, volume={103}, ISSN={["1520-0477"]}, DOI={10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0312.1}, abstractNote={The active 2020 Atlantic hurricane season produced 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes, and 7 major hurricanes (Category 3+ on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). Though the season was active overall, the final two months (October–November) raised 2020 into the upper echelon of Atlantic hurricane activity for integrated metrics such as Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). This study focuses on October–November 2020, when 7 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes formed and produced ACE of 74 * 104 kt2. Since 1950, October–November 2020 ranks tied for 3rd for named storms, 1st for hurricanes and major hurricanes, and 2nd for ACE. Six named storms also underwent rapid intensification (≥30 kt intensification in ≤24 hr) in October–November 2020—the most on record.This manuscript includes a climatological analysis of October–November tropical cyclones (TCs) and their primary formation regions. In 2020, anomalously low wind shear in the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, likely driven by a moderate intensity La Niña event and anomalously high sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Caribbean provided dynamic and thermodynamic conditions that were much more conducive than normal for late-season TC formation and rapid intensification. This study also highlights October–November 2020 landfalls, including Hurricanes Delta and Zeta in Louisiana and in Mexico and Hurricanes Eta and Iota in Nicaragua. The active late season in the Caribbean would have been anticipated by a statistical model using the July–September-averaged ENSO Longitude Index and Atlantic warm pool SSTs as predictors.}, number={1}, journal={BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY}, author={Klotzbach, Philip J. and Wood, Kimberly M. and Bell, Michael M. and Blake, Eric S. and Bowen, Steven G. and Caron, Louis-Philippe and Collins, Jennifer M. and Gibney, Ethan J. and Schreck, Carl J., III and Truchelut, Ryan E.}, year={2022}, month={Jan}, pages={E110–E128} }
 @article{shi_schreck iii_john_chung_lang_buehler_soden_2022, title={Assessing the consistency of satellite-derived upper tropospheric humidity measurements}, volume={15}, ISSN={["1867-8548"]}, DOI={10.5194/amt-15-6949-2022}, abstractNote={Abstract. Four upper tropospheric humidity (UTH) datasets derived
from satellite sounders are evaluated to assess their consistency as part of the activities for the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) water vapor assessment project. The datasets include UTH computed from brightness
temperature measurements of the 183.31±1 GHz channel of the Special
Sensor Microwave – Humidity (SSM/T-2), Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-B
(AMSU-B), and Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS) and from channel 12 of the
High-resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder (HIRS). The four datasets are
generally consistent in the interannual temporal and spatial variability of
the tropics. Large positive anomalies peaked over the central equatorial
Pacific region during El Niño events in the same phase with the increase of sea surface temperature (SST). Conversely, large negative anomalies were obtained during El Niño events when the tropical-domain average is
taken. The weakened ascending branch of the Pacific Walker circulation in
the western Pacific and the enhanced descending branches of the local Hadley circulation along the Pacific subtropics largely contributed to widespread drying areas and thus negative anomalies in the upper troposphere during El Niño events as shown in all four datasets. During a major El Niño event, UTH had higher correlations with the coincident precipitation (0.60 to 0.75) and with 200 hPa velocity potential (−0.42 to −0.64) than with SST (0.37 to 0.49). Due to differences in retrieval definitions and gridding procedures, there can be a difference of 3 %–5 % UTH between datasets on average, and larger magnitudes of anomaly values are usually observed in spatial maps of microwave UTH data. Nevertheless, the tropical-domain averaged anomalies of the datasets are close to each other with their differences being mostly less than 0.5 %, and more importantly the phases of the time series are generally consistent for variability studies.
}, number={23}, journal={ATMOSPHERIC MEASUREMENT TECHNIQUES}, author={Shi, Lei and Schreck III, Carl J. J. and John, Viju O. and Chung, Eui-Seok and Lang, Theresa and Buehler, Stefan A. and Soden, Brian J.}, year={2022}, month={Dec}, pages={6949–6963} }
 @article{klotzbach_chavas_bell_bowen_gibney_schreck_2022, title={Characterizing Continental US Hurricane Risk: Which Intensity Metric Is Best?}, volume={127}, ISSN={["2169-8996"]}, DOI={10.1029/2022JD037030}, abstractNote={The damage potential of a hurricane is widely considered to depend more strongly on an integrated measure of the hurricane wind field, such as integrated kinetic energy (IKE), than a point‐based wind measure, such as maximum sustained wind speed (Vmax). Recent work has demonstrated that minimum sea level pressure (MSLP) is also an integrated measure of the wind field. This study investigates how well historical continental US hurricane damage is predicted by MSLP compared to both Vmax and IKE for continental United States hurricane landfalls for the period 1988–2021. We first show for the entire North Atlantic basin that MSLP is much better correlated with IKE (rrank = 0.50) than Vmax (rrank = 0.26). We then show that continental US hurricane normalized damage is better predicted by MSLP (rrank = 0.83) than either Vmax (rrank = 0.67) or IKE (rrank = 0.65). For Georgia to Maine hurricane landfalls specifically, MSLP and IKE show similar levels of skill at predicting damage, whereas Vmax provides effectively no predictive power. Conclusions for IKE extend to power dissipation as well, as the two quantities are highly correlated because wind radii closely follow a Modified Rankine vortex. The physical relationship of MSLP to IKE and power dissipation is discussed. In addition to better representing damage, MSLP is also much easier to measure via aircraft or surface observations than either Vmax or IKE, and it is already routinely estimated operationally. We conclude that MSLP is an ideal metric for characterizing hurricane damage risk.}, number={18}, journal={JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES}, author={Klotzbach, Philip J. and Chavas, Daniel R. and Bell, Michael M. and Bowen, Steven G. and Gibney, Ethan J. and Schreck, Carl J., III}, year={2022}, month={Sep} }
 @article{durre_arguez_schreck iii_squires_vose_2022, title={Daily High-Resolution Temperature and Precipitation Fields for the Contiguous United States from 1951 to Present}, volume={39}, ISSN={["1520-0426"]}, DOI={10.1175/JTECH-D-22-0024.1}, abstractNote={
In this paper, a new set of daily gridded fields and area averages of temperature and precipitation is introduced that covers the Contiguous United States (CONUS) from 1951 to present. With daily updates and a grid resolution of approximately 0.0417° (nominally 5 km), the product, named nClimGrid-Daily, is designed to be used particularly in climate monitoring and other applications that rely on placing event-specific meteorological patterns into a long-term historical context. The gridded fields were generated by interpolating morning and midnight observations from the Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily dataset using thin-plate smoothing splines. Additional processing steps limit the adverse effects of spatial and temporal variations in station density, observation time, and other factors on the quality and homogeneity of the fields. The resulting gridded data provide smoothed representations of the point observations, although the accuracy of estimates for individual grid points and days can be sensitive to local spatial variability and the ability of the available observations and interpolation technique to capture that variability. The nClimGrid-Daily dataset is therefore recommended for applications that require the aggregation of estimates in space and/or time, such as climate monitoring analyses at regional to national scales.}, number={12}, journal={JOURNAL OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC TECHNOLOGY}, author={Durre, Imke and Arguez, Anthony and Schreck III, Carl J. and Squires, Michael F. and Vose, Russell S.}, year={2022}, month={Dec}, pages={1837–1855} }
 @article{barsugli_easterling_arndt_coates_delworth_hoerling_johnson_kapnick_kumar_kunkel_et al._2022, title={Development of a Rapid Response Capability to Evaluate Causes of Extreme Temperature and Drought Events in the United States}, volume={103}, ISSN={["1520-0477"]}, DOI={10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0237.1}, abstractNote={In January 2021 work began on a NOAA Climate Program Office funded project “that develops and tests a potential rapid event analysis and assessment capability” (NOAA Climate Program Office 2020). This 3.5–yr effort brings together scientists from four NOAA Laboratories/Centers and university scientists at two of NOAA’s Cooperative Institutes. This funded project has two high-level goals: 1) to address outstanding dataset, model, and methodological gaps in explaining extreme events within a changing climate, and 2) to build a prototype rapid event attribution system for temperature-related and drought extremes that could eventually serve routine climate information needs at local, state, and regional levels. The focus on temperature-related extremes derives from the conclusions of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences report that confidence in attribution findings is greatest for this class of extremes (National Academies of Sciences Engineering and Medicine 2016). The project will leverage additional research projects that were funded under the same call that focus on the underlying mechanisms for these types of extreme events. Several climate trends in the United States present challenges for the attribution of temperature-related extremes (Fig. 1). The first is the lack of appreciable Joseph J. Barsugli, David R. Easterling, Derek S. Arndt, David A. Coates, Thomas L. Delworth, Martin P. Hoerling, Nathaniel Johnson, Sarah B. Kapnick, Arun Kumar, Kenneth E. Kunkel,Carl J. Schreck, Russell S. Vose, and Tao Zhang}, number={3}, journal={BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY}, author={Barsugli, Joseph J. and Easterling, David R. and Arndt, Derek S. and Coates, David A. and Delworth, Thomas L. and Hoerling, Martin P. and Johnson, Nathaniel and Kapnick, Sarah B. and Kumar, Arun and Kunkel, Kenneth E. and et al.}, year={2022}, month={Mar}, pages={S14–S20} }
 @article{truchelut_klotzbach_staehling_wood_halperin_schreck_blake_2022, title={Earlier onset of North Atlantic hurricane season with warming oceans}, volume={13}, ISSN={["2041-1723"]}, DOI={10.1038/s41467-022-31821-3}, abstractNote={Numerous Atlantic basin tropical cyclones have recently developed prior to the official start of hurricane season, including several pre-season landfalls in the continental United States. Pre-season and early-season tropical cyclones disproportionately affect populated landmasses, often producing outsized precipitation impacts. Here we show a significant trend towards earlier onset of tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic basin, with threshold dates of the first three percentiles of accumulated cyclone energy shifting earlier at a rate exceeding five days decade-1 since 1979, even correcting for biases in climatology due to increased detection of short-lived storms. Initial threshold dates of continental United States named storm landfalls have trended earlier by two days decade-1 since 1900. The trend towards additional pre-season and early-season activity is linked to spring thermodynamic conditions becoming more conducive for tropical cyclone formation. Genesis potential index value increases in the western Atlantic basin are primarily driven by warming ocean temperatures.}, number={1}, journal={NATURE COMMUNICATIONS}, author={Truchelut, Ryan E. and Klotzbach, Philip J. and Staehling, Erica M. and Wood, Kimberly M. and Halperin, Daniel J. and Schreck, Carl J. and Blake, Eric S.}, year={2022}, month={Aug} }
 @article{zhu_collins_klotzbach_schreck_2022, title={Hurricane Ida (2021): Rapid Intensification Followed by Slow Inland Decay}, volume={103}, ISSN={["1520-0477"]}, DOI={10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0240.1}, abstractNote={
Hurricane Ida recently became one of the strongest hurricanes to hit Louisiana on record, with an estimated landfalling maximum sustained wind of 130 kt. Although Hurricane Ida made landfall at a similar time of year and landfall location as Hurricane Katrina (2005), Ida’s postlandfall decay rate was much weaker than Hurricane Katrina. This manuscript includes a comparative analysis of pre- and post-landfall synoptic conditions for Hurricane Ida and other historical major landfalling hurricanes (Category 3+ on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) along the Gulf Coast since 1983, with a particular focus on Hurricane Katrina.
Abundant precipitation in southeastern Louisiana prior to Ida’s landfall increased soil moisture. This increased soil moisture along with extremely weak overland steering flow likely slowed the storm’s weakening rate post-landfall. Offshore environmental factors also played an important role, particularly anomalously high nearshore sea surface temperatures and weak vertical wind shear that fueled the rapid intensification of Ida just before landfall. Strong nearshore vertical wind shear weakened Hurricane Katrina before landfall, and moderate northward steering flow caused Katrina to move inland relatively quickly, aiding in its relatively fast weakening rate following landfall.
The results of this study improve our understanding of critical factors influencing the evolution of the nearshore intensity of major landfalling hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. This study can help facilitate forecasting and preparation for inland hazards resulting from landfalling hurricanes with nearshore intensification and weak post-landfall decay.}, number={10}, journal={BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY}, author={Zhu, Yi-Jie and Collins, Jennifer M. and Klotzbach, Philip J. and Schreck, Carl J.}, year={2022}, month={Oct}, pages={E2354–E2369} }
 @article{lawton_majumdar_dotterer_thorncroft_schreck iii_2022, title={The Influence of Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves on African Easterly Waves in a Wave-Following Framework}, volume={150}, ISSN={["1520-0493"]}, DOI={10.1175/MWR-D-21-0321.1}, abstractNote={
While considerable attention has been given to how Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves (CCKWs) influence the genesis of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Atlantic Ocean, less attention has been given to their direct influence on African Easterly Waves (AEWs). This study builds a climatology of AEW and CCKW passages from 1981-2019 using an AEW-following framework. Vertical and horizontal composites of these passages are developed and divided into categories based on AEW position and CCKW strength. Many of the relationships that have previously been found for TC genesis also hold true for non-developing AEWs. This includes an increase in convective coverage surrounding the AEW center in phase with the convectively enhanced (“active”) CCKW crest, as well as a build-up of relative vorticity from the lower to upper troposphere following this active crest. Additionally, a new finding is that CCKWs induce specific humidity anomalies around AEWs that are qualitatively similar to those of relative vorticity. These modifications to specific humidity are more pronounced when AEWs are at lower latitudes and interacting with stronger CCKWs. While the influence of CCKWs on AEWs is mostly transient and short-lived, CCKWs do modify the AEW propagation speed and westward-filtered relative vorticity, indicating that they may have some longer-term influences on the AEW lifecycle. Overall, this analysis provides a more comprehensive view of the CCKW-AEW relationship than has previously been established, and supports assertions by previous studies that CCKW-associated convection, specific humidity, and vorticity may modify the favorability of AEWs to TC genesis over the Atlantic.}, number={8}, journal={MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW}, author={Lawton, Quinton A. and Majumdar, Sharanya J. and Dotterer, Krista and Thorncroft, Christopher and Schreck III, Carl J.}, year={2022}, month={Aug}, pages={2055–2072} }
 @article{klotzbach_wood_schreck_bowen_patricola_bell_2022, title={Trends in Global Tropical Cyclone Activity: 1990-2021}, volume={49}, ISSN={["1944-8007"]}, DOI={10.1029/2021GL095774}, abstractNote={This study investigates global tropical cyclone (TC) activity trends from 1990 to 2021, a period marked by largely consistent observational platforms. Several global TC metrics have decreased during this period, with significant decreases in hurricane numbers and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). Most of this decrease has been driven by significant downward trends in the western North Pacific. Globally, short‐lived named storms, 24‐hr intensification events of ≥50 kt day−1, and TC‐related damage have increased significantly. The increase in short‐lived named storms is likely due to technological improvements, while rapidly intensifying TC increases may be fueled by higher potential intensity. Damage increases are largely due to increased coastal assets. The significant decrease in hurricane numbers and global ACE are likely due to the trend toward a more La Niña‐like base state from 1990 to 2021, favoring North Atlantic TC activity and suppressing North and South Pacific TC activity.}, number={6}, journal={GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS}, author={Klotzbach, Philip J. and Wood, Kimberly M. and Schreck, Carl J., III and Bowen, Steven G. and Patricola, Christina M. and Bell, Michael M.}, year={2022}, month={Mar} }
 @article{mantripragada_schreck_aiyyer_2021, title={Energetics of Interactions between African Easterly Waves and Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves}, volume={149}, ISSN={["1520-0493"]}, DOI={10.1175/MWR-D-21-0003.1}, abstractNote={
Perturbation kinetic and available energy budgets are used to explore how convectively coupled equatorial Kelvin waves (KWs) impact African easterly wave (AEW) activity. The convective phase of the Kelvin wave increases the African easterly jet’s meridional shear, thus enhancing the barotropic energy conversions, leading to intensification of southern track AEWs perturbation kinetic energy. In contrast, the barotropic energy conversion is reduced in the suppressed phase of KW. Baroclinic energy conversion of the southern track AEWs is not significantly different between Kelvin waves’ convective and suppressed phases. AEWs in the convective phase of a Kelvin wave have stronger perturbation available potential energy generation by diabatic heating and stronger baroclinic overturning circulations than in the suppressed phase of a Kelvin wave. These differences suggest that southern track AEWs within the convective phase of Kelvin waves have more vigorous convection than in the suppressed phase of Kelvin waves. Barotropic energy conversion of the northern track AEWs is not significantly different between Kelvin waves’ convective and suppressed phases. The convective phase of the Kelvin wave increases the lower-tropospheric meridional temperature gradient north of the African easterly jet, thus enhancing the baroclinic energy conversion, leading to intensification of northern track AEWs perturbation kinetic energy. In contrast, the baroclinic energy conversion is reduced in the suppressed phase of KW. These results provide a physical basis for the modulation of AEWs by Kelvin waves arriving from upstream.}, number={11}, journal={MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW}, author={Mantripragada, Rama Sesha Sridhar and Schreck, C. J., III and Aiyyer, Anantha}, year={2021}, month={Nov}, pages={3821–3835} }
 @article{schreck_2021, title={Global Survey of the MJO and Extreme Precipitation}, volume={48}, ISSN={["1944-8007"]}, DOI={10.1029/2021GL094691}, abstractNote={This study examines the modulation of land‐based extreme precipitation around the globe by the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO). The upper‐level convergent phase of the MJO inhibits extreme events over most regions but enhancement in other phases falls in three categories. Over Brazil, Southeast Asia, and Australia, 2‐year rainfall events are most common near the core of the upper‐level divergence as expected. For most other regions in the tropics and subtropics, the extreme events occur along the periphery of the MJO's envelope. Previous regional studies suggest these extremes are driven by the MJO's low‐level circulation either advecting moisture or interacting with orography rather than directly increasing the vertical convection. Finally, extratropical extreme events are more likely associated with the MJO's impact on extratropical wave trains or tropical cyclones. Given the increasing skill of numerical models for predicting the MJO, these results could lead to subseasonal forecasts of extreme events.}, number={19}, journal={GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS}, author={Schreck, Carl J., III}, year={2021}, month={Oct} }
 @article{schreck_klotzbach_bell_2021, title={Optimal Climate Normals for the North Atlantic Hurricane Activity}, volume={48}, ISSN={["1944-8007"]}, DOI={10.1029/2021GL092864}, abstractNote={Most climatologies use 30‐year epochs that are updated at the start of each decade. They will shift from 1981–2010 to 1991–2020 in 2021. North Atlantic hurricane activity has large interdecadal variability that may lead to biases in a 30‐year climatology. A previous inactive hurricane period included 1981–1990, while 2011–2020 is a part of the ongoing active era. As a result, the 1991–2020 normals are more active than the 1981–2010 normals, with the median accumulated cyclone energy increasing by ∼40%. A 50‐year epoch would be more likely to capture a full cycle of multidecadal variability, and this study demonstrates that 50‐year climatologies have historically been better predictors of the subsequent decade's hurricane activity. This paper argues that the 1971–2020 climatology should, therefore, be the baseline for hurricane activity for the next decade with a possible adjustment for the non‐climatic increase in observed short‐lived tropical cyclones.}, number={9}, journal={GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS}, author={Schreck, Carl J., III and Klotzbach, Philip J. and Bell, Michael M.}, year={2021}, month={May} }
 @article{diamond_schreck_2021, title={THE TROPICS}, volume={102}, ISSN={["1520-0477"]}, DOI={10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0080.1}, number={8}, journal={BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY}, author={Diamond, H. J. and Schreck, C. J.}, year={2021}, month={Aug}, pages={S199–S261} }
 @article{klotzbach_schreck_compo_bowen_gibney_oliver_bell_2021, title={The Record-Breaking 1933 Atlantic Hurricane Season}, volume={102}, ISSN={["1520-0477"]}, DOI={10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0330.1}, abstractNote={The 1933 Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active, with 20 named storms and 11 hurricanes including 6 major (category 3+; 1-min maximum sustained winds ≥96 kt) hurricanes occurring. The 1933 hurricane season also generated the most accumulated cyclone energy (an integrated metric that accounts for frequency, intensity, and duration) of any Atlantic hurricane season on record. A total of 8 hurricanes tracked through the Caribbean in 1933—the most on record. In addition, two category 3 hurricanes made landfall in the United States just 23 h apart: the Treasure Coast hurricane in southeast Florida followed by the Cuba–Brownsville hurricane in south Texas. This manuscript examines large-scale atmospheric and oceanic conditions that likely led to such an active hurricane season. Extremely weak vertical wind shear was prevalent over both the Caribbean and the tropical Atlantic throughout the peak months of the hurricane season, likely in part due to a weak-to-moderate La Niña event. These favorable dynamic conditions, combined with above-normal tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures, created a very conducive environment for hurricane formation and intensification. The Madden–Julian oscillation was relatively active during the summer and fall of 1933, providing subseasonal conditions that were quite favorable for tropical cyclogenesis during mid- to late August and late September to early October. The current early June and August statistical models used by Colorado State University would have predicted a very active 1933 hurricane season. A better understanding of these extremely active historical Atlantic hurricane seasons may aid in anticipation of future hyperactive seasons.}, number={3}, journal={BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY}, author={Klotzbach, Philip J. and Schreck, Carl J. and Compo, Gilbert P. and Bowen, Steven G. and Gibney, Ethan J. and Oliver, Eric C. J. and Bell, Michael M.}, year={2021}, month={Mar}, pages={E446–E463} }
 @article{saunders_klotzbach_lea_schreck_bell_2020, title={Quantifying the Probability and Causes of the Surprisingly Active 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season}, volume={7}, ISSN={["2333-5084"]}, DOI={10.1029/2019EA000852}, abstractNote={The 2018 North Atlantic hurricane season was a destructive season with hurricanes Florence and Michael causing significant damage in the southeastern United States. In keeping with most destructive hurricane seasons, basinwide tropical cyclone activity was above average in 2018—by ~25% for named storm numbers, hurricane numbers, and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). In contrast to this above‐normal activity, the August–September tropical environmental fields that explain ~50% of the variance in Atlantic basin hurricane activity between 1950 and 2017 anticipated a well below‐average 2018 hurricane season. The surprisingly large mismatch between the observed and replicated levels of hurricane activity in 2018 is an extreme example of the uncertainty inherent in seasonal hurricane outlooks and highlights the need for these outlooks to be issued in terms of probability of exceedance. Such probabilistic information would better clarify the uncertainty associated with hurricane outlooks to the benefit of users. With retrospective knowledge of the August–September 2018 key tropical environmental fields, the chance that the observed 2018 Atlantic hurricane activity would occur is about 5%. The reasons for the surprisingly high hurricane activity in 2018 are a hurricane outbreak in early September and, in particular, the occurrence of unusually high tropical cyclone activity in the subtropical North Atlantic. The hyperactive subtropical activity was not anticipated because contemporary statistical models of seasonal Atlantic hurricane activity lack skill in anticipating subtropical ACE compared to tropical ACE.}, number={3}, journal={EARTH AND SPACE SCIENCE}, author={Saunders, M. A. and Klotzbach, P. J. and Lea, A. S. R. and Schreck, C. J. and Bell, M. M.}, year={2020}, month={Mar} }
 @article{schreck_janiga_baxter_2020, title={Sources of Tropical Subseasonal Skill in the CFSv2}, volume={148}, ISSN={["1520-0493"]}, DOI={10.1175/MWR-D-19-0289.1}, abstractNote={
 This study applies Fourier filtering to a combination of rainfall estimates from TRMM and forecasts from the CFSv2. The combined data are filtered for low-frequency (LF, ≥120 days) variability, the MJO, and convectively coupled equatorial waves. The filtering provides insight into the sources of skill for the CFSv2. The LF filter, which encapsulates persistent anomalies generally corresponding with SSTs, has the largest contribution to forecast skill beyond week 2. Variability within the equatorial Pacific is dominated by its response to ENSO, such that both the unfiltered and the LF-filtered forecasts are skillful over the Pacific through the entire 45-day CFSv2 forecast. In fact, the LF forecasts in that region are more skillful than the unfiltered forecasts or any combination of the filters. Verifying filtered against unfiltered observations shows that subseasonal variability has very little opportunity to contribute to skill over the equatorial Pacific. Any subseasonal variability produced by the model is actually detracting from the skill there. The MJO primarily contributes to CFSv2 skill over the Indian Ocean, particularly during March–May and MJO phases 2–5. However, the model misses opportunities for the MJO to contribute to skill in other regions. Convectively coupled equatorial Rossby waves contribute to skill over the Indian Ocean during December–February and the Atlantic Ocean during September–November. Convectively coupled Kelvin waves show limited potential skill for predicting weekly averaged rainfall anomalies since they explain a relatively small percent of the observed variability.}, number={4}, journal={MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW}, author={Schreck, Carl J., III and Janiga, Matthew A. and Baxter, Stephen}, year={2020}, month={Apr}, pages={1553–1565} }
 @article{klotzbach_bell_bowen_gibney_knapp_schreck_2020, title={Surface Pressure a More Skillful Predictor of Normalized Hurricane Damage than Maximum Sustained Wind}, volume={101}, ISSN={["1520-0477"]}, DOI={10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0062.1}, abstractNote={Atlantic hurricane seasons have a long history of causing significant financial impacts, with Harvey, Irma, Maria, Florence, and Michael combining to incur more than 345 billion USD in direct economic damage during 2017–2018. While Michael’s damage was primarily wind and storm surge-driven, Florence’s and Harvey’s damage was predominantly rainfall and inland flood-driven. Several revised scales have been proposed to replace the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS), which currently only categorizes the hurricane wind threat, while not explicitly handling the totality of storm impacts including storm surge and rainfall. However, most of these newly-proposed scales are not easily calculated in real-time, nor can they be reliably calculated historically. In particular, they depend on storm wind radii, which remain very uncertain. Herein, we analyze the relationship between normalized historical damage caused by continental United States (CONUS) landfalling hurricanes from 1900–2018 with both maximum sustained wind speed (Vmax) and minimum sea level pressure (MSLP). We show that MSLP is a more skillful predictor of normalized damage than Vmax, with a significantly higher rank correlation between normalized damage and MSLP (rrank = 0.77) than between normalized damage and Vmax (rrank = 0.66) for all CONUS landfalling hurricanes. MSLP has served as a much better predictor of hurricane damage in recent years than Vmax, with large hurricanes such as Ike (2008) and Sandy (2012) causing much more damage than anticipated from their SSHWS ranking. MSLP is also a more accurately-measured quantity than is Vmax, making it an ideal quantity for evaluating a hurricane’s potential damage.}, number={6}, journal={BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY}, author={Klotzbach, Philip J. and Bell, Michael M. and Bowen, Steven G. and Gibney, Ethan J. and Knapp, Kenneth R. and Schreck, Carl J., III}, year={2020}, month={Jun}, pages={E830–E846} }
 @article{mekonnen_schreck_enyew_2020, title={The Impact of Kelvin Wave Activity during Dry and Wet African Summer Rainfall Years}, volume={11}, ISSN={["2073-4433"]}, DOI={10.3390/atmos11060568}, abstractNote={This study highlights the influence of convectively coupled Kelvin wave (KW) activity on deep convection and African easterly waves (AEWs) over North Africa during dry and wet boreal summer rainfall years. Composite analysis based on 25 years of rainfall, satellite observed cold cloud temperature, and reanalysis data sets show that KWs are more frequent and stronger in dry Central African years compared with wet years. Deep convection associated with KWs is slightly more amplified in dry years compared with wet years. Further, KW activity over North Africa strengthens the lower level zonal flow and deepens the zonal moisture flux in dry years compared with wet years. Results also show that enhanced KW convection is in phase with above-average AEW variance in dry years. However, enhanced KW convection is out-of-phase with average AEW activity in wet years. In general, this study suggests that KW passage over Africa enhances convective activity and more strongly modulates the monsoon flow and moisture flux during the dry years than wet years.}, number={6}, journal={ATMOSPHERE}, author={Mekonnen, Ademe and Schreck, Carl J. and Enyew, Bantwale D.}, year={2020}, month={Jun} }
 @article{worku_mekonnen_schreck_2020, title={The Impact of MJO, Kelvin, and Equatorial Rossby Waves on the Diurnal Cycle over the Maritime Continent}, volume={11}, ISSN={["2073-4433"]}, DOI={10.3390/atmos11070711}, abstractNote={The impacts of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), Kelvin waves, and Equatorial Rossby (ER) waves on the diurnal cycle of rainfall and types of deep convection over the Maritime Continent are investigated using rainfall from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis and Infrared Weather States (IR–WS) data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project. In an absolute sense, the MJO produced its strongest modulations of rainfall and organized deep convection over the islands, when and where convection is already strongest. The MJO actually has a greater percentage modulation over the coasts and seas, but it does not affect weaker diurnal cycle there. Isolated deep convection was also more prevalent over land during the suppressed phase, while organized deep convection dominated the enhanced phase, consistent with past work. This study uniquely examined the effects of Kelvin and ER waves on rainfall, convection, and their diurnal cycles over the Maritime Continent. The modulation of convection by Kelvin waves closely mirrored that by the MJO, although the Kelvin wave convection continued farther into the decreasing phase. The signals for ER waves were also similar but less distinct. An improved understanding of how these waves interact with convection could lead to improved subseasonal forecast skill.}, number={7}, journal={ATMOSPHERE}, author={Worku, Lakemariam Y. and Mekonnen, Ademe and Schreck, Carl J., III}, year={2020}, month={Jul} }
 @article{huang_menne_boyer_freeman_gleason_lawrimore_liu_rennie_schreck_sun_et al._2020, title={Uncertainty Estimates for Sea Surface Temperature and Land Surface Air Temperature in NOAAGlobalTemp Version 5}, volume={33}, ISSN={["1520-0442"]}, DOI={10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0395.1}, abstractNote={This analysis estimates uncertainty in the NOAA global surface temperature (GST) version 5 (NOAAGlobalTemp v5) product, which consists of sea surface temperature (SST) from the Extended Reconstructed SST version 5 (ERSSTv5) and land surface air temperature (LSAT) from the Global Historical Climatology Network monthly version 4 (GHCNm v4). Total uncertainty in SST and LSAT consists of parametric and reconstruction uncertainties. The parametric uncertainty represents the dependence of SST/LSAT reconstructions on selecting 28 (6) internal parameters of SST (LSAT), and is estimated by a 1000-member ensemble from 1854 to 2016. The reconstruction uncertainty represents the residual error of using a limited number of 140 (65) modes for SST (LSAT). Uncertainty is quantified at the global scale as well as the local grid scale. Uncertainties in SST and LSAT at the local grid scale are larger in the earlier period (1880s–1910s) and during the two world wars due to sparse observations, then decrease in the modern period (1950s–2010s) due to increased data coverage. Uncertainties in SST and LSAT at the global scale are much smaller than those at the local grid scale due to error cancellations by averaging. Uncertainties are smaller in SST than in LSAT due to smaller SST variabilities. Comparisons show that GST and its uncertainty in NOAAGlobalTemp v5 are comparable to those in other internationally recognized GST products. The differences between NOAAGlobalTemp v5 and other GST products are within their uncertainties at the 95% confidence level.}, number={4}, journal={JOURNAL OF CLIMATE}, author={Huang, Boyin and Menne, Matthew J. and Boyer, Tim and Freeman, Eric and Gleason, Byron E. and Lawrimore, Jay H. and Liu, Chunying and Rennie, J. Jared and Schreck, Carl J., III and Sun, Fengying and et al.}, year={2020}, month={Feb}, pages={1351–1379} }
 @article{worku_mekonnen_schreck_2019, title={Diurnal cycle of rainfall and convection over the Maritime Continent using TRMM and ISCCP}, volume={39}, ISSN={["1097-0088"]}, DOI={10.1002/joc.6121}, abstractNote={This study investigates the diurnal cycle of rainfall, convection, and precipitation features (PFs) over the Maritime Continent (MC). The study uses Tropical Rainfall Measuring Missions (TRMM) Multi‐satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA; product 3b42), TRMM PFs, and convective classifications from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) data. Together, these satellites dataset paint a comprehensive picture of the diurnal cycle of rainfall and convection over the MC consistent with past research. Isolated convection initiates around midday over the higher terrain of the large islands (Java, Borneo, and Papua New Guinea). The convection becomes more organized through the afternoon and evening, leading to peak rainfall over the islands around 1800–2100 local standard time (LST). Over the next few hours, some of that rainfall transitions to stratiform rain over land. The convection then propagates offshore overnight with rainfall peaking along the coast around 0300–0600 LST and then over ocean around 0600–0900 LST. ISCCP data suggests that the overnight and early morning convection is more associated with isolated convective cells than the remnants of mesoscale convective systems. The coastal and oceanic diurnal ranges also seem to be larger in stratiform rainfall, in contrast to land where convective rainfall dominates. Seasonally the diurnal variation of rainfall, convection, and PFs over the region have greater amplitude during DJF (December, January, and February) than JJA (June, July, and August). Given the MC's critical role in the global climate, examining variations in these cycles with respect to the Madden–Julian Oscillation and equatorial waves may ultimately lead to improved subseasonal weather forecasts.}, number={13}, journal={INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY}, author={Worku, Lakemariam Y. and Mekonnen, Ademe and Schreck, Carl J., III}, year={2019}, month={Nov}, pages={5191–5200} }
 @article{arguez_inamdar_palecki_schreck_young_2019, title={ENSO Normals: A New US Climate Normals Product Conditioned by ENSO Phase and Intensity and Accounting for Secular Trends}, volume={58}, ISSN={["1558-8432"]}, DOI={10.1175/JAMC-D-18-0252.1}, abstractNote={Climate normals are traditionally calculated every decade as the average values over a period of time, often 30 years. Such an approach assumes a stationary climate, with several alternatives recently introduced to account for monotonic climate change. However, these methods fail to account for interannual climate variability [e.g., El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)] that systematically alters the background state of the climate similar to climate change. These effects and their uncertainties are well established, but they are not reflected in any readily available climate normals datasets. A new high-resolution set of normals is derived for the contiguous United States that accounts for ENSO and uses the optimal climate normal (OCN)—a 10-yr (15 yr) running average for temperature (precipitation)—to account for climate change. Anomalies are calculated by subtracting the running means and then compositing into 5 ENSO phase and intensity categories: Strong La Niña, Weak La Niña, Neutral, Weak El Niño, and Strong El Niño. Seasonal composites are produced for each of the five phases. The ENSO normals are the sum of these composites with the OCN for a given month. The result is five sets of normals, one for each phase, which users may consult with respect to anticipated ENSO outcomes. While well-established ENSO patterns are found in most cases, a distinct east–west temperature anomaly pattern emerges for Weak El Niño events. This new product can assist stakeholders in planning for a broad array of possible ENSO impacts in a changing climate.}, number={6}, journal={JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY}, author={Arguez, Anthony and Inamdar, Anand and Palecki, Michael A. and Schreck, Carl J. and Young, Alisa H.}, year={2019}, month={Jun}, pages={1381–1397} }
 @article{green_schreck_johnson_heath_2019, title={Education Backgrounds of TV Weathercasters}, volume={100}, ISSN={["1520-0477"]}, DOI={10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0047.1}, abstractNote={
 In the early days of television, most weathercasters lacked formal training in meteorology and instead relied on forecasts from other sources. Over the decades, degreed meteorologists became more common. A third category has recently emerged: people with certificates in broadcast meteorology from Mississippi State University (MSU). This certification and the related broadcast meteorology degrees from MSU provide weathercasters with an understanding of meteorology without advanced calculus or differential equations. This study makes no judgment on how a weathercaster’s education background might affect their on-air presentations but notes these courses are required by most guidelines for meteorological degrees, as well as the American Meteorological Society's Certified Broadcast Meteorologist (CBM) program.
 This study conducts a unique survey of television meteorologists using the education history listed on their station's website or LinkedIn. The backgrounds of 421 meteorologists were examined with the equivalent of a 94% response rate. Overall, 21% had a broadcast meteorology degree or certification from MSU, 64% had a traditional meteorology degree from MSU or another institution, 2% minored in meteorology or had military training, and 12% listed no or a partial education background in the field. Another way of viewing the data is that the MSU broadcast program alone has nearly as many graduates as the four largest traditional programs combined in our sample. These results were further broken down for various subsets of weathercasters, resulting in statistically significant variations by market size, region, ownership group, and gender.}, number={4}, journal={BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY}, author={Green, Thomas A., Jr. and Schreck, Carl J., III and Johnson, Nathan S. and Heath, Sonya Stevens}, year={2019}, month={Apr}, pages={581–588} }
 @article{stevens_schreck_saha_bell_kunkel_2019, title={Precipitation and Fatal Motor Vehicle Crashes: Continental Analysis with High-Resolution Radar Data}, volume={100}, ISSN={["1520-0477"]}, DOI={10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0001.1}, abstractNote={Precipitation, even at light intensity, contributes a significant risk of fatal motor vehicle crashes across the United States, at nearly all times of day, and in all seasons.}, number={8}, journal={BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY}, author={Stevens, Scott E. and Schreck, Carl J., III and Saha, Shubhayu and Bell, Jesse E. and Kunkel, Kenneth E.}, year={2019}, month={Aug}, pages={1453–1462} }
 @article{camargo_camp_elsberry_gregory_klotzbach_schreck_sobel_ventrice_vitart_wang_et al._2019, title={TROPICAL CYCLONE PREDICTION ON SUBSEASONAL TIME-SCALES}, volume={8}, ISSN={["2225-6032"]}, DOI={10.6057/2019TCRR03.04}, number={3}, journal={TROPICAL CYCLONE RESEARCH AND REVIEW}, author={Camargo, Suzana J. and Camp, Joanne and Elsberry, Russell L. and Gregory, Paul A. and Klotzbach, Philip J. and Schreck, Carl J., III and Sobel, Adam H. and Ventrice, Michael J. and Vitart, Frederic and Wang, Zhuo and et al.}, year={2019}, month={Sep}, pages={150–165} }
 @article{wood_klotzbach_collins_schreck_2019, title={The Record-Setting 2018 Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season}, volume={46}, ISSN={["1944-8007"]}, DOI={10.1029/2019GL083657}, abstractNote={The extremely active 2018 eastern North Pacific (ENP) hurricane season set records for number of hurricane days, major hurricane days, and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE). The Western Development Region (116°W–180°) was especially active, shattering its prior record for ACE set in 2015. In addition, Hawaii was impacted by Hurricane Lane in August and Tropical Storm Olivia in September. Despite above‐normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and below‐normal vertical wind shear in 2018, large‐scale conditions were generally less conducive for tropical cyclone (TC) formation than in 2015. However, the strong subtropical ridge in August and September of 2018 enhanced westward steering flow, thereby keeping TCs over hurricane‐favorable conditions and preventing recurvature toward lower SSTs and higher vertical wind shear. The 2018 ENP hurricane season highlights that El Niño conditions are not necessary for extremely high ENP TC activity.}, number={16}, journal={GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS}, author={Wood, Kimberly M. and Klotzbach, Philip J. and Collins, Jennifer M. and Schreck, Carl J.}, year={2019}, month={Aug}, pages={10072–10081} }
 @misc{bell_brown_conlon_herring_kunkel_lawrimore_luber_schreck_smith_uejio_2018, title={Changes in extreme events and the potential impacts on human health}, volume={68}, ISSN={["2162-2906"]}, DOI={10.1080/10962247.2017.1401017}, abstractNote={ABSTRACT Extreme weather and climate-related events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, dust storms, flooding rains, coastal flooding, storm surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden. More information is needed about the impacts of climate change on public health and economies to effectively plan for and adapt to climate change. This paper describes some of the ways extreme events are changing and provides examples of the potential impacts on human health and infrastructure. It also identifies key research gaps to be addressed to improve the resilience of public health to extreme events in the future. Implications: Extreme weather and climate events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, flooding rains, coastal flooding, surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden.}, number={4}, journal={JOURNAL OF THE AIR & WASTE MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATION}, author={Bell, Jesse E. and Brown, Claudia Langford and Conlon, Kathryn and Herring, Stephanie and Kunkel, Kenneth E. and Lawrimore, Jay and Luber, George and Schreck, Carl and Smith, Adam and Uejio, Christopher}, year={2018}, pages={265–287} }
 @article{stott_christidis_herring_hoell_kossssin_schreck_2018, title={FUTURE CHALLENGES IN EVENT ATTRIBUTION METHODOLOGIES}, volume={99}, ISSN={["1520-0477"]}, DOI={10.1175/bams-d-17-0285.1}, abstractNote={© 2018 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).}, number={1}, journal={BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY}, author={Stott, Peter A. and Christidis, Nikos and Herring, Stephananie C. and Hoell, Andrew and Kossssin, James P. and Schreck, Carl J., III}, year={2018}, month={Jan}, pages={S155–S157} }
 @article{herring_christidis_hoell_kossssin_schreck_stott_2018, title={INTRODUCTION TO EXPLAINING EXTREME EVENTS OF 2016 FROM A CLIMATE PERSPECTIVE}, volume={99}, ISSN={["1520-0477"]}, DOI={10.1175/bams-d-17-0284.1}, abstractNote={© 2018 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).}, number={1}, journal={BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY}, author={Herring, Stephanie C. and Christidis, Nikolaos and Hoell, Andrew and Kossssin, James P. and Schreck, Carl J., III and Stott, Peter A.}, year={2018}, month={Jan}, pages={S1–S6} }
 @article{semunegus_mekonnen_schreck_2017, title={Characterization of convective systems and their association with African easterly waves}, volume={37}, ISSN={["1097-0088"]}, DOI={10.1002/joc.5085}, abstractNote={ABSTRACT}, number={12}, journal={INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY}, author={Semunegus, Hilawe and Mekonnen, Ademe and Schreck, Carl J., III}, year={2017}, month={Oct}, pages={4486–4492} }
 @article{schreck_2016, title={Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves and Tropical Cyclogenesis in a Semi-Lagrangian Framework}, volume={144}, ISSN={["1520-0493"]}, DOI={10.1175/mwr-d-16-0237.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={11}, journal={MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW}, author={Schreck, Carl J., III}, year={2016}, month={Nov}, pages={4131–4139} }
 @article{klotzbach_oliver_leeper_schreck_2016, title={The Relationship between the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Southeastern New England Snowfall}, volume={144}, ISSN={["1520-0493"]}, DOI={10.1175/mwr-d-15-0434.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={4}, journal={MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW}, author={Klotzbach, Philip J. and Oliver, Eric C. J. and Leeper, Ronald D. and Schreck, Carl J., III}, year={2016}, month={Apr}, pages={1355–1362} }
 @article{hennon_knapp_schreck_stevens_kossin_thorne_hennon_kruk_rennie_gadea_et al._2015, title={Cyclone Center: Can Citizen Scientists Improve Tropical Cyclone Intensity Records?}, volume={96}, ISSN={["1520-0477"]}, DOI={10.1175/bams-d-13-00152.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={4}, journal={BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY}, author={Hennon, Christopher C. and Knapp, Kenneth R. and Schreck, Carl J., III and Stevens, Scott E. and Kossin, James P. and Thorne, Peter W. and Hennon, Paula A. and Kruk, Michael C. and Rennie, Jared and Gadea, Jean-Maurice and et al.}, year={2015}, month={Apr} }
 @article{schreck_2015, title={Kelvin Waves and Tropical Cyclogenesis: A Global Survey}, volume={143}, ISSN={["1520-0493"]}, DOI={10.1175/mwr-d-15-0111.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={10}, journal={MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW}, author={Schreck, Carl J., III}, year={2015}, month={Oct}, pages={3996–4011} }
 @article{schreck_bennett_cordeira_crouch_dissen_lang_margolin_o'shay_rennie_schneider_et al._2015, title={NATURAL GAS PRICES AND THE EXTREME WINTERS OF 2011/12 AND 2013/14 Causes, Indicators, and Interactions}, volume={96}, ISSN={["1520-0477"]}, DOI={10.1175/bams-d-13-00237.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={11}, journal={BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY}, author={Schreck, Carl J., III and Bennett, Stephen and Cordeira, Jason M. and Crouch, Jake and Dissen, Jenny and Lang, Andrea L. and Margolin, David and O'Shay, Adam and Rennie, Jared and Schneider, Thomas Ian and et al.}, year={2015}, month={Nov}, pages={1879–1894} }
 @article{schreck_knapp_kossin_2014, title={The Impact of Best Track Discrepancies on Global Tropical Cyclone Climatologies using IBTrACS}, volume={142}, ISSN={["1520-0493"]}, DOI={10.1175/mwr-d-14-00021.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={10}, journal={MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW}, author={Schreck, Carl J., III and Knapp, Kenneth R. and Kossin, James P.}, year={2014}, month={Oct}, pages={3881–3899} }
 @article{ventrice_wheeler_hendon_schreck_thorncroft_kiladis_2013, title={A Modified Multivariate Madden-Julian Oscillation Index Using Velocity Potential}, volume={141}, ISSN={["1520-0493"]}, DOI={10.1175/mwr-d-12-00327.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={12}, journal={MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW}, author={Ventrice, Michael J. and Wheeler, Matthew C. and Hendon, Harry H. and Schreck, Carl J., III and Thorncroft, Chris D. and Kiladis, George N.}, year={2013}, month={Dec}, pages={4197–4210} }
 @article{shi_schreck_john_2013, title={HIRS channel 12 brightness temperature dataset and its correlations with major climate indices}, volume={13}, ISSN={["1680-7316"]}, DOI={10.5194/acp-13-6907-2013}, abstractNote={Abstract. A new version of the High-Resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder (HIRS) upper tropospheric water vapor channel (channel 12) brightness temperature dataset is developed using intersatellite calibrated data. In this dataset, only those pixels affected by upper tropospheric clouds are discarded. Compared to the previous version that was based on column-clear-sky data, the new version has much better daily spatial coverage. The HIRS observation patterns are compared to microwave sounder measurements. The differences between the two types of sounders vary with respect to brightness temperature with larger differences for higher (dry) values. Correlations between the HIRS upper tropospheric water vapor channel brightness temperatures and several major climate indices show strong signals during cold seasons. The selected climate indices track climate variation signals covering regions from the tropics to the poles. Qualitatively, moist signals are correlated with troughs and ascending branches of the circulation, while dry signals occur with ridges and descent. These correlations show the potential of using the upper tropospheric water vapor channel brightness temperature dataset together with a suite of many atmospheric variables to monitor regional climate changes and locate global teleconnection patterns.
                    }, number={14}, journal={ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS}, author={Shi, L. and Schreck, C. J., III and John, V. O.}, year={2013}, pages={6907–6920} }
 @article{schreck_shi_kossin_bates_2013, title={Identifying the MJO, Equatorial Waves, and Their Impacts Using 32 Years of HIRS Upper-Tropospheric Water Vapor}, volume={26}, ISSN={["1520-0442"]}, DOI={10.1175/jcli-d-12-00034.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={4}, journal={JOURNAL OF CLIMATE}, author={Schreck, Carl J., III and Shi, Lei and Kossin, James P. and Bates, John J.}, year={2013}, month={Feb}, pages={1418–1431} }
 @article{gottschalck_roundy_schreck_vintzileos_zhang_2013, title={Large-Scale Atmospheric and Oceanic Conditions during the 2011-12 DYNAMO Field Campaign}, volume={141}, ISSN={["1520-0493"]}, DOI={10.1175/mwr-d-13-00022.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={12}, journal={MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW}, author={Gottschalck, Jon and Roundy, Paul E. and Schreck, Carl J., III and Vintzileos, Augustin and Zhang, Chidong}, year={2013}, month={Dec}, pages={4173–4196} }
 @article{schreck_cordeira_margolin_2013, title={Which MJO Events Affect North American Temperatures?}, volume={141}, ISSN={["1520-0493"]}, DOI={10.1175/mwr-d-13-00118.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={11}, journal={MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW}, author={Schreck, Carl J., III and Cordeira, Jason M. and Margolin, David}, year={2013}, month={Nov}, pages={3840–3850} }
 @article{schreck_molinari_aiyyer_2012, title={A Global View of Equatorial Waves and Tropical Cyclogenesis}, volume={140}, ISSN={["0027-0644"]}, DOI={10.1175/mwr-d-11-00110.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={3}, journal={MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW}, author={Schreck, Carl J., III and Molinari, John and Aiyyer, Anantha}, year={2012}, month={Mar}, pages={774–788} }
 @article{ventrice_thorncroft_schreck_2012, title={Impacts of Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves on Environmental Conditions for Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis}, volume={140}, ISSN={["1520-0493"]}, DOI={10.1175/mwr-d-11-00305.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={7}, journal={MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW}, author={Ventrice, Michael J. and Thorncroft, Christopher D. and Schreck, Carl J., III}, year={2012}, month={Jul}, pages={2198–2214} }
 @article{aiyyer_mekonnen_schreck_2012, title={Projection of Tropical Cyclones on Wavenumber-Frequency-Filtered Equatorial Waves}, volume={25}, ISSN={["0894-8755"]}, DOI={10.1175/jcli-d-11-00451.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={10}, journal={JOURNAL OF CLIMATE}, author={Aiyyer, Anantha and Mekonnen, Ademe and Schreck, Carl J., III}, year={2012}, month={May}, pages={3653–3658} }
 @article{schreck_molinari_mohr_2011, title={Attributing Tropical Cyclogenesis to Equatorial Waves in the Western North Pacific}, volume={68}, ISSN={["0022-4928"]}, DOI={10.1175/2010jas3396.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={2}, journal={JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES}, author={Schreck, Carl J., III and Molinari, John and Mohr, Karen I.}, year={2011}, month={Feb}, pages={195–209} }
 @article{schreck_molinari_2011, title={Tropical Cyclogenesis Associated with Kelvin Waves and the Madden-Julian Oscillation}, volume={139}, ISSN={["0027-0644"]}, DOI={10.1175/mwr-d-10-05060.1}, abstractNote={ The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) influences tropical cyclone formation around the globe. Convectively coupled Kelvin waves are often embedded within the MJO, but their role in tropical cyclogenesis remains uncertain. This case study identifies the influences of the MJO and a series of Kelvin waves on the formation of two tropical cyclones. }, number={9}, journal={MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW}, author={Schreck, Carl J., III and Molinari, John}, year={2011}, month={Sep}, pages={2723–2734} }
 @article{schreck_semazzi_2004, title={Variability of the recent climate of eastern Africa}, volume={24}, ISSN={["1097-0088"]}, DOI={10.1002/joc.1019}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={6}, journal={INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY}, author={Schreck, CJ and Semazzi, FHM}, year={2004}, month={May}, pages={681–701} }