@article{schreck iii_easterling_barsugli_coates_hoell_johnson_kunkel_labe_uehling_vose_et al._2024, title={A rapid response process for evaluating causes of extreme temperature events in the United States: The 2023 Texas/Louisiana heat wave as a prototype}, volume={3}, ISSN={["2752-5295"]}, DOI={10.1088/2752-5295/ad8028}, abstractNote={Abstract As climate attribution studies have become more common, routine processes are now being established for attribution analysis following extreme events. This study describes the prototype process being developed through a collaboration across NOAA, including monitoring tools as well as observational and model-based analysis of causal factors. The prolonged period of extreme heat in summer 2023 over Texas, Louisiana and adjacent areas provided a proving ground for this emerging capability. This event posed unique challenges to the initial process. The extreme heat lasted for most of the summer while most heat wave metrics have been designed for 3–7 day events. The eastern portion of the affected area also occurred within the so-called summer-time daytime warming hole where the warming trend in maximum temperatures has been mitigated wholly or in part by increased precipitation. The extreme temperature coincided with a strong—but not record—precipitation deficit over the region. Both observations and climate model simulations illustrate that the temperatures for a given precipitation deficit have warmed in recent decades. In other words, meteorological droughts today are hotter than their historical analogs providing a stronger attribution to anthropogenic forcing than for temperature alone. These findings were summarized in a prototype plain language report that was distributed to key stakeholders. Based on their feedback, the monitoring and assessment tools will continue to be refined, and the project is exploring other climate model large ensembles to increase the robustness of attribution for future events.
}, number={4}, journal={ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH-CLIMATE}, author={Schreck III, Carl J. and Easterling, David R. and Barsugli, Joseph J. and Coates, David A. and Hoell, Andrew and Johnson, Nathaniel C. and Kunkel, Kenneth E. and Labe, Zachary M. and Uehling, John and Vose, Russell S. and et al.}, year={2024}, month={Dec} }
 @article{barsugli_easterling_arndt_coates_delworth_hoerling_johnson_kapnick_kumar_kunkel_et al._2022, title={Development of a Rapid Response Capability to Evaluate Causes of Extreme Temperature and Drought Events in the United States}, volume={103}, ISSN={["1520-0477"]}, DOI={10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0237.1}, abstractNote={In January 2021 work began on a NOAA Climate Program Office funded project “that develops and tests a potential rapid event analysis and assessment capability” (NOAA Climate Program Office 2020). This 3.5–yr effort brings together scientists from four NOAA Laboratories/Centers and university scientists at two of NOAA’s Cooperative Institutes. This funded project has two high-level goals: 1) to address outstanding dataset, model, and methodological gaps in explaining extreme events within a changing climate, and 2) to build a prototype rapid event attribution system for temperature-related and drought extremes that could eventually serve routine climate information needs at local, state, and regional levels. The focus on temperature-related extremes derives from the conclusions of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences report that confidence in attribution findings is greatest for this class of extremes (National Academies of Sciences Engineering and Medicine 2016). The project will leverage additional research projects that were funded under the same call that focus on the underlying mechanisms for these types of extreme events. Several climate trends in the United States present challenges for the attribution of temperature-related extremes (Fig. 1). The first is the lack of appreciable Joseph J. Barsugli, David R. Easterling, Derek S. Arndt, David A. Coates, Thomas L. Delworth, Martin P. Hoerling, Nathaniel Johnson, Sarah B. Kapnick, Arun Kumar, Kenneth E. Kunkel,Carl J. Schreck, Russell S. Vose, and Tao Zhang}, number={3}, journal={BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY}, author={Barsugli, Joseph J. and Easterling, David R. and Arndt, Derek S. and Coates, David A. and Delworth, Thomas L. and Hoerling, Martin P. and Johnson, Nathaniel and Kapnick, Sarah B. and Kumar, Arun and Kunkel, Kenneth E. and et al.}, year={2022}, month={Mar}, pages={S14–S20} }