@article{mitchell_pearce_2020, title={HOW DID UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICY AFFECT ECONOMIC FORECASTS?}, volume={38}, ISSN={["1465-7287"]}, url={http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-85070491283&partnerID=MN8TOARS}, DOI={10.1111/coep.12440}, abstractNote={We study how unconventional monetary policy announcements affected professional forecasters' predictions of bond rates, gross domestic product growth and inflation using data from the monthly survey by the Wall Street Journal. We find that unconventional monetary policy (UMP) announcements moved predicted bond rates in the direction the Fed intended. UMP announcements had differential impacts on forecasters' predictions; they also tended to move growth and inflation predictions in directions opposite those the Fed intended due to Fed information effects. A policy implication of our study is that the Fed should communicate economic projections to the public separately from monetary policy announcements to mitigate Fed information effects. (JEL E52, E58)}, number={1}, journal={CONTEMPORARY ECONOMIC POLICY}, author={Mitchell, Karlyn and Pearce, Douglas K.}, year={2020}, month={Jan}, pages={206–220} }
 @article{altunok_mitchell_pearce_2020, title={The trade credit channel and monetary policy transmission: Empirical evidence from US panel data}, volume={78}, ISSN={["1878-4259"]}, url={http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-85084150058&partnerID=MN8TOARS}, DOI={10.1016/j.qref.2020.03.001}, abstractNote={We investigate the US trade credit channel proposed by Meltzer (1960). We estimate reduced-form trade credit supply and demand models on quarterly firm-level data for most public corporations from 1988 to 2007. We use a novel method of distinguishing firms by access to funds using the indexes of Whited and Wu (2006) and Altman (1968). Tight monetary policy produced greater expansion of receivables than payables, expansion of receivables that varied by funds-access, and some expansion of payables by firms with poor access. Tight policy produced expansion of net trade credit by corporations which flowed to entities like private businesses, a major component of the channel.}, journal={QUARTERLY REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE}, author={Altunok, Fatih and Mitchell, Karlyn and Pearce, Douglas K.}, year={2020}, month={Nov}, pages={226–250} }
 @article{mitchell_pearce_2017, title={Direct Evidence on Sticky Information from the Revision Behavior of Professional Forecasters}, volume={84}, ISSN={["2325-8012"]}, url={http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-85029381674&partnerID=MN8TOARS}, DOI={10.1002/soej.12236}, abstractNote={We provide evidence on the sticky‐information model of Mankiw and Reis () by examining how often individual professional forecasters revise their forecasts. We draw interest rate and unemployment rate forecasts from the monthly Wall Street Journal surveys. We find evidence that forecasters frequently leave forecasts unchanged but revise more often the larger the changes in the information set; additionally, the information sensitivity of revision frequencies increased after 2007. We also find that, on average, forecasters in our sample revise more frequently than found in previous research but that revised forecasts are not consistently more accurate.}, number={2}, journal={SOUTHERN ECONOMIC JOURNAL}, author={Mitchell, Karlyn and Pearce, Douglas K.}, year={2017}, month={Oct}, pages={637–653} }
 @article{ivrendi_pearce_2014, title={Asset prices and expected monetary policy: evidence from daily data}, volume={46}, ISSN={["1466-4283"]}, DOI={10.1080/00036846.2013.864038}, abstractNote={This article explores the relationships among Libor, gold prices, the exchange rate, oil prices, fed funds futures prices and stock prices at a daily frequency. This article examines whether expected monetary policy, measured by changes in the prices of fed funds futures contracts, reacts to high frequency changes in asset prices and, in turn, whether asset prices respond to changes in expected monetary policy. The article reveals that there are statistically significant relationships between expected US monetary policy and shocks to Libor and exchange rates. It also reveals that there is no evidence of a systematic relationship between stock prices and expected monetary policy changes. Splitting the data into expansionary and recessionary periods using NBER dating, we find results for the expansionary periods that are very similar to the results for the entire period. For the periods of recession, we find little evidence of significant linkages between markets.}, number={9}, journal={APPLIED ECONOMICS}, author={Ivrendi, Mehmet and Pearce, Douglas K.}, year={2014}, month={Mar}, pages={985–995} }
 @article{lapp_pearce_2012, title={The impact of economic news on expected changes in monetary policy}, volume={34}, ISSN={["0164-0704"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.jmacro.2012.01.009}, abstractNote={Asset prices may react to news through changes in expected monetary policy. We examine whether economic news directly affects expected changes in monetary policy, measured by changes in federal funds rate futures prices. Because these prices depend on monthly averages of the effective funds rate, the timing of FOMC meetings relative to news announcements is important and we derive a method of weighting the news that incorporates this timing. We find that the market raises (lowers) its expected change in the funds rate target after news that inflation was higher (lower) than expected or employment was stronger (weaker) than expected.}, number={2}, journal={JOURNAL OF MACROECONOMICS}, author={Lapp, John S. and Pearce, Douglas K.}, year={2012}, month={Jun}, pages={362–379} }
 @article{mitchell_pearce_2011, title={Lending technologies, lending specialization, and minority access to small-business loans}, volume={37}, ISSN={["1573-0913"]}, url={http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-80052959059&partnerID=MN8TOARS}, DOI={10.1007/s11187-009-9243-1}, number={3}, journal={SMALL BUSINESS ECONOMICS}, author={Mitchell, Karlyn and Pearce, Douglas K.}, year={2011}, month={Oct}, pages={277–304} }
 @article{mitchell_pearce_2010, title={Do Wall Street economists believe in Okun’s Law and the Taylor Rule?}, volume={34}, ISSN={1055-0925 1938-9744}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12197-009-9085-3}, DOI={10.1007/s12197-009-9085-3}, number={2}, journal={Journal of Economics and Finance}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Mitchell, Karlyn and Pearce, Douglas K.}, year={2010}, month={Apr}, pages={196–217} }
 @article{pearce_solakoglu_2007, title={Macroeconomic news and exchange rates}, volume={17}, ISSN={1042-4431}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2005.12.004}, DOI={10.1016/j.intfin.2005.12.004}, abstractNote={This paper examines the relationship between macroeconomic news and the dollar–Mark and dollar–Yen exchange rates. We employ high-frequency observations for a 10-year period. We investigate whether exchange rate observations need to be sampled at a high frequency in order to detect significant effects from news announcements on mean returns and volatility. We examine the linearity and symmetry of the responses to news and also allow the effects of the news announcements to vary across states of the economy. We find that news indicating a stronger U.S. economy causes an appreciation of the U.S. dollar, that the responses are essentially complete within 5 min, and that measuring the responses over 6-h intervals eliminates the statistical significance of the news. The effects of news appear linear and symmetric but there is some evidence that the effects depend on the state of the economy.}, number={4}, journal={Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Pearce, Douglas K. and Solakoglu, M. Nihat}, year={2007}, month={Oct}, pages={307–325} }
 @article{mitchell_pearce_2007, title={Professional forecasts of interest rates and exchange rates: Evidence from the Wall Street Journal's panel of economists}, volume={29}, ISSN={["0164-0704"]}, url={http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-35549002544&partnerID=MN8TOARS}, DOI={10.1016/j.jmacro.2005.11.004}, abstractNote={We analyze economists’ forecasts of interest rates and exchange rates from the Wall Street Journal. We find that a majority of economists produced unbiased forecasts but that none predicted directions of changes more accurately than chance. Most economists’ forecast accuracy is statistically indistinguishable from a random walk model in forecasting the Treasury bill rate, but many are significantly worse in forecasting the Treasury bond rate and the exchange rate. We also find systematic forecast heterogeneity, support for strategic models predicting the industry employing the economist matters, and evidence that economists deviate less from the consensus as they age.}, number={4}, journal={JOURNAL OF MACROECONOMICS}, author={Mitchell, Karlyn and Pearce, Douglas K.}, year={2007}, month={Dec}, pages={840–854} }
 @article{lapp_pearce_laksanasut_2003, title={The predictability of FOMC decisions: Evidence from the Volcker and Greenspan chairmanships}, volume={70}, ISSN={["2325-8012"]}, DOI={10.2307/3648971}, abstractNote={This paper examines whether there is a systematic relationship between FOMC decisions and publicly available data that would potentially allow the public to anticipate FOMC policy changes. We characterize each FOMC decision as a move to tighten, ease, or leave policy unchanged and use ordered probit to estimate models of the probabilities of each choice. We find a statistically significant relationship between FOMC decisions and measures of inflation and real activity, but this relationship does not accurately predict the directions of FOMC decisions. While short-term interest rate changes prior to FOMC meetings have predictive power, suggesting that the financial market can anticipate FOMC decisions somewhat, other financial variables such as stock price movements appear unrelated to FOMC policy changes. Overall, FOMC decisions are not highly predictable using publicly available data, and adding the private information contained in the FOMC's Greenbook does not significantly increase the predictive accuracy.}, number={2}, journal={SOUTHERN ECONOMIC JOURNAL}, author={Lapp, JS and Pearce, DK and Laksanasut, S}, year={2003}, month={Oct}, pages={312–327} }
 @article{pearce_sobue_1997, title={Uncertainty and the inflation bias of monetary policy}, volume={57}, ISSN={["0165-1765"]}, DOI={10.1016/S0165-1765(97)00223-1}, abstractNote={The dynamic inconsistency model predicts that monetary policy will produce a positive inflation rate. The introduction of multiplicative uncertainty into the model suggests that this bias towards inflation will be lower the more uncertain the effects of monetary policy.}, number={2}, journal={ECONOMICS LETTERS}, author={Pearce, DK and Sobue, M}, year={1997}, month={Dec}, pages={203–207} }
 @article{pearce_kitchen_1990, title={Information, expectations, and foreign exchange market efficiency}, ISBN={0813378117}, journal={International financial markets and agricultural trade}, publisher={Boulder, Colo. : Westview Press, Inc}, author={Pearce, D. K. and Kitchen, J.}, year={1990}, pages={214} }