@article{mei_wear_henderson_2019, title={Timberland Investment under Both Financial and Biophysical Risk}, volume={95}, ISSN={["1543-8325"]}, DOI={10.3368/le.95.2.279}, abstractNote={We extend real options analysis of timberland investments to examine a combination of financial and biophysical risk effects on optimal investment strategies in the southeastern United States. Results show that, despite a slight downward drift in price, expected returns for loblolly pine management fall between entry and exit thresholds, indicating an optimal “hold” strategy. This is explained by an offsetting upward trend in biophysical productivity associated with climate changes across a range of modeled futures. Monte Carlo analysis indicates a small positive difference between entry and exit outcomes consistent with observed rates of expansion in timberland investments in the region. <i>(JEL D81, Q23)</i>}, number={2}, journal={LAND ECONOMICS}, author={Mei, Bin and Wear, David N. and Henderson, Jesse D.}, year={2019}, month={May}, pages={279–291} }
 @article{coulston_westfall_wear_edgar_prisley_treiman_abt_smith_2018, title={Annual Monitoring of US Timber Production: Rationale and Design}, volume={64}, ISSN={["1938-3738"]}, DOI={10.1093/forsci/fxy010}, abstractNote={Understanding roundwood production in the United States at fine spatial and temporal scales is needed to support a range of analyses for decision making. Currently, estimates of county-level roundwood production are available at various time intervals for different regions of the country and for different products. Here we present our reasoning for moving to an annual timber products monitoring program and further present a comparison of sample designs to facilitate an annual program without increased effort. We found that both probability proportional to size and stratified simple random sampling designs were viable options, but the stratified simple random sampling design provided more flexibility. This flexibility was deemed important to target emerging markets and to enable sampling with certainty of specific firms. Our results lay the foundations for moving to an annual timber products output monitoring design in support of market, sustainability, and policy analyses as well as projections.}, number={5}, journal={FOREST SCIENCE}, author={Coulston, John W. and Westfall, James A. and Wear, David N. and Edgar, Christopher B. and Prisley, Steven P. and Treiman, Thomas B. and Abt, Robert C. and Smith, W. Brad}, year={2018}, month={Oct}, pages={533–543} }
 @article{hwang_martin_vose_wear_miles_kim_band_2018, title={Nonstationary Hydrologic Behavior in Forested Watersheds Is Mediated by Climate‐Induced Changes in Growing Season Length and Subsequent Vegetation Growth}, volume={54}, ISSN={0043-1397 1944-7973}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2017WR022279}, DOI={10.1029/2017WR022279}, abstractNote={Forested watersheds provide important ecosystem services through the provision of high quality freshwater, mitigation of floods, and maintenance of base flows. How alteration of these services under ongoing climate change is mediated by vegetation dynamics is not fully understood. Combining independent remote sensing based vegetation information and distributed hydrological modeling, we investigated the impact of climate‐induced vegetation dynamics on long‐term non‐stationary hydrologic behavior in two forested watersheds in the southern Appalachians. We found significant increases in precipitation‐runoff deficit (defined as annual precipitation minus annual runoff), equivalent to annual evapotranspiration plus storage changes, over the last three decades. This non‐stationary hydrologic behavior was significantly correlated with long‐term and interannual changes in growing season length and subsequent vegetation growth. These patterns in vegetation phenology were attributed primarily to minimum temperature regimes, which showed steeper and more consistent increases than temperature maxima. Using a distributed modeling framework, we also found that the long‐term non‐stationary hydrologic behavior could not be simulated unless full vegetation dynamics, including vegetation phenology and long‐term growth, were incorporated into the model. Incorporating seasonal vegetation dynamics also led to the improved simulation in streamflow dynamics, while its effect spread out through the following dormant seasons. Our study indicates that non‐stationary hydrologic behavior has been closely mediated by long‐term seasonal and structural forest canopy interaction with climate variables rather than directly driven by climatic variables. This study emphasizes the importance of understanding the ecosystem responses to ongoing climate change for predictions of future freshwater regimes.}, number={8}, journal={Water Resources Research}, publisher={American Geophysical Union (AGU)}, author={Hwang, Taehee and Martin, Katherine L. and Vose, James M. and Wear, David and Miles, Brian and Kim, Yuri and Band, Lawrence E.}, year={2018}, month={Aug}, pages={5359–5375} }
 @misc{golladay_martin_vose_wear_covich_hobbs_klepzig_likens_naiman_shearer_et al._2016, title={Achievable future conditions as a framework for guiding forest conservation and management}, volume={360}, ISSN={["1872-7042"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.foreco.2015.10.009}, abstractNote={We contend that traditional approaches to forest conservation and management will be inadequate given the predicted scale of social-economic and biophysical changes in the 21st century. New approaches, focused on anticipating and guiding ecological responses to change, are urgently needed to ensure the full value of forest ecosystem services for future generations. These approaches acknowledge that change is inevitable and sometimes irreversible, and that maintenance of ecosystem services depends in part on novel ecosystems, i.e., species combinations with no analog in the past. We propose that ecological responses be evaluated at landscape or regional scales using risk-based approaches to incorporate uncertainty into forest management efforts with subsequent goals for management based on Achievable Future Conditions (AFC). AFCs defined at a landscape or regional scale incorporate advancements in ecosystem management, including adaptive approaches, resilience, and desired future conditions into the context of the Anthropocene. Inherently forward looking, ACFs encompass mitigation and adaptation options to respond to scenarios of projected future biophysical, social-economic, and policy conditions which distribute risk and provide diversity of response to uncertainty. The engagement of science-management-public partnerships is critical to our risk-based approach for defining AFCs. Robust monitoring programs of forest management actions are also crucial to address uncertainty regarding species distributions and ecosystem processes. Development of regional indicators of response will also be essential to evaluate outcomes of management strategies. Our conceptual framework provides a starting point to move toward AFCs for forest management, illustrated with examples from fire and water management in the Southeastern United States. Our model is adaptive, incorporating evaluation and modification as new information becomes available and as social–ecological dynamics change. It expands on established principles of ecosystem management and best management practices (BMPs) and incorporates scenarios of future conditions. It also highlights the potential limits of existing institutional structures for defining AFCs and achieving them. In an uncertain future of rapid change and abrupt, unforeseen transitions, adjustments in management approaches will be necessary and some actions will fail. However, it is increasingly evident that the greatest risk is posed by continuing to implement strategies inconsistent with current understanding of our novel future.}, journal={FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT}, author={Golladay, S. W. and Martin, K. L. and Vose, J. M. and Wear, D. N. and Covich, A. P. and Hobbs, R. J. and Klepzig, K. D. and Likens, G. E. and Naiman, R. J. and Shearer, A. W. and et al.}, year={2016}, month={Jan}, pages={80–96} }
 @article{coulston_wear_vose_2015, title={Complex forest dynamics indicate potential for slowing carbon accumulation in the southeastern United States}, volume={5}, ISSN={["2045-2322"]}, DOI={10.1038/srep08002}, abstractNote={Over the past century forest regrowth in Europe and North America expanded forest carbon (C) sinks and offset C emissions but future C accumulation is uncertain. Policy makers need insights into forest C dynamics as they anticipate emissions futures and goals. We used land use and forest inventory data to estimate how forest C dynamics have changed in the southeastern United States and attribute changes to land use, management, and disturbance causes. From 2007-2012, forests yielded a net sink of C because of net land use change (+6.48 Tg C yr(-1)) and net biomass accumulation (+75.4 Tg C yr(-1)). Forests disturbed by weather, insect/disease, and fire show dampened yet positive forest C changes (+1.56, +1.4, +5.48 Tg C yr(-1), respectively). Forest cutting caused net decreases in C (-76.7 Tg C yr(-1)) but was offset by forest growth (+143.77 Tg C yr(-1)). Forest growth rates depend on age or stage of development and projected C stock changes indicate a gradual slowing of carbon accumulation with anticipated forest aging (a reduction of 9.5% over the next five years). Additionally, small shifts in land use transitions consistent with economic futures resulted in a 40.6% decrease in C accumulation.}, journal={SCIENTIFIC REPORTS}, author={Coulston, John W. and Wear, David N. and Vose, James M.}, year={2015}, month={Jan} }
 @article{wear_coulston_2015, title={From sink to source: Regional variation in US forest carbon futures}, volume={5}, ISSN={["2045-2322"]}, DOI={10.1038/srep16518}, abstractNote={The sequestration of atmospheric carbon (C) in forests has partially offset C emissions in the United States (US) and might reduce overall costs of achieving emission targets, especially while transportation and energy sectors are transitioning to lower-carbon technologies. Using detailed forest inventory data for the conterminous US, we estimate forests' current net sequestration of atmospheric C to be 173 Tg yr(-1), offsetting 9.7% of C emissions from transportation and energy sources. Accounting for multiple driving variables, we project a gradual decline in the forest C emission sink over the next 25 years (to 112 Tg yr(-1)) with regional differences. Sequestration in eastern regions declines gradually while sequestration in the Rocky Mountain region declines rapidly and could become a source of atmospheric C due to disturbances such as fire and insect epidemics. C sequestration in the Pacific Coast region stabilizes as forests harvested in previous decades regrow. Scenarios simulating climate-induced productivity enhancement and afforestation policies increase sequestration rates, but would not fully offset declines from aging and forest disturbances. Separating C transfers associated with land use changes from sequestration clarifies forests' role in reducing net emissions and demonstrates that retention of forest land is crucial for protecting or enhancing sink strength.}, journal={SCIENTIFIC REPORTS}, author={Wear, David N. and Coulston, John W.}, year={2015}, month={Nov} }
 @article{coulston_reams_wear_brewer_2014, title={An analysis of forest land use, forest land cover and change at policy-relevant scales}, volume={87}, ISSN={["1464-3626"]}, DOI={10.1093/forestry/cpt056}, abstractNote={Quantifying the amount of forest and change in the amount of forest are key to ensure that appropriate management practices and policies are in place to maintain the array of ecosystem services provided by forests. There are a range of analytical techniques and data available to estimate these forest parameters, however, not all ‘forest’ is the same and various components of change have been presented. Forest as defined by use and forest as defined by cover are different, although it is common for scientists and policy makers to infer one from the other. We compare and contrast estimates of forest land cover, forest land use, extent and change at policy-relevant scales in the southeastern US. We found that estimates of forest land use extent and forest land cover extent were not significantly correlated. Estimates of net change based on forest land cover and forest land use were only moderately correlated and net change estimates were independent of gross forest cover loss estimates.}, number={2}, journal={FORESTRY}, author={Coulston, John W. and Reams, Gregory A. and Wear, David N. and Brewer, C. Kenneth}, year={2014}, month={Apr}, pages={267–276} }
 @misc{vose_wear_mayfield_nelson_2013, title={Hemlock woolly adelgid in the southern Appalachians: Control strategies, ecological impacts, and potential management responses}, volume={291}, ISSN={["1872-7042"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.foreco.2012.11.002}, abstractNote={Hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae Annad; or HWA) is a non-native invasive pest that attacks and kills eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carrière) and Carolina hemlock (Tsuga caroliniana Engelm.). Hemlock is a “foundation species” due to its strong influence on ecosystem structure and function, especially in riparian areas. HWA management involves the integrated use of multiple approaches including chemical control, biological control, cultural treatments, host resistance, and host gene conservation. Despite extensive control efforts, large areas in the eastern US, but especially in the southern Appalachian region, have experienced extensive hemlock mortality. Most of the short-term impacts of HWA induced mortality on ecosystem structure and function are localized and small; however, long-term impacts such as large pulses of woody debris and changes in species composition that impact structure and function could be significant. Using a decision analysis framework, land managers should begin to strategically implement land management decisions to address observed short-term impacts and plan and manage for projected longer-term impacts. In order to maintain ecosystem services in response to long-term impacts, restoration efforts may require novel approaches, such as the introduction of non-native species, facilitated movement of native species to new habitats (e.g., white pine), and aggressive management of existing species (e.g., Rhododendron) with mechanical removal, fire, or chemicals.}, journal={FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT}, author={Vose, James M. and Wear, David N. and Mayfield, Albert E., III and Nelson, C. Dana}, year={2013}, month={Mar}, pages={209–219} }
 @article{vokoun_wear_abt_2009, title={testing for change in structural elements of forest inventories}, volume={55}, number={5}, journal={Forest Science}, author={Vokoun, M. and Wear, D. and Abt, R.}, year={2009}, pages={455–466} }
 @article{pattanayak_abt_sommer_cubbage_murray_yang_wear_alm_2004, title={Forest forecasts: does individual heterogeneity matter for market and landscape outcomes?}, volume={6}, ISSN={["1872-7050"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.forpol.2004.03.017}, abstractNote={Recent econometric analyses have shown that timber supply choices reflect heterogeneous preferences for amenities and management of forests in the US South. However, this evidence is insufficient to determine whether timber market models that rely on conventional timber supply specifications will suffer from significant forecasting biases. The goal of this paper is to evaluate the nature and extent of such bias by (a) modifying the Sub-Regional Timber Supply (SRTS) model to reflect landowner heterogeneity; and (b) using estimated parameters to tie timber markets to heterogeneous individual supply choices. We find that conventional models will underestimate the ending period inventory volume in the younger age classes of all forest management types, except planted pines. These aggregate results mask interesting sub-regional patterns, as exemplified by mixed-pine forests of Virginia mountains, Florida panhandle, and North Carolina mountains, and natural pine forests of North Carolina piedmont. Compared to empirically valid models, conventional models will also estimate (a) lower timber prices, higher harvests and substantially higher inventory for softwood species; and (b) higher prices, lower harvests, and higher inventory for hardwood species. A case study from North Carolina also indicates significant differences in habitat forecasts for 61 species of birds, amphibians, and reptiles. We conclude with a synthesis of the key underlying forces that supplement or mitigate the heterogeneity impact, and a discussion of the bias-vs.-efficiency tradeoffs confronting policy makers and policy analysts who rely on forest sector projection models.}, number={3-4}, journal={FOREST POLICY AND ECONOMICS}, author={Pattanayak, SK and Abt, RC and Sommer, AJ and Cubbage, F and Murray, BC and Yang, JC and Wear, D and Alm, S}, year={2004}, month={Jun}, pages={243–260} }
 @inbook{wear_pattanayak_2003, title={Aggregate timber supply}, ISBN={1402010281}, DOI={10.1007/978-94-017-0219-5_8}, abstractNote={Timber supply modeling is a means of formalizing the production behavior of heterogeneous landowners managing a wide variety of forest types and vintages within a region. The critical challenge of timber supply modeling is constructing theoretically valid and empirically practical aggregate descriptions of harvest behavior. Understanding timber supply is essential for assessing tradeoffs between forest production and the environment, for forecasting timber market activity and timber prices, and for evaluating the level and distribution of costs and benefits of forest policies. It follows that timber supply modeling is an essential interface between forest production economics and policy and decision making. This chapter examines timber supply modeling, focusing especially on issues regarding aggregation of timber stocks (some of this chapter is based on Wear and Parks 1994). A section on general theory is followed by a discussion of various contemporary modeling approaches. The explicit aggregation of forest capital and description of capital structure in the analysis of timber supply remain as core research issues. We conclude with an empirical example that explores these topics.}, booktitle={Forests in a market economy}, publisher={Dordrecht; Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers}, author={Wear, D. N. and Pattanayak, S. K.}, editor={E. O. Sills and Abt, K. L.Editors}, year={2003} }
 @inbook{prestemon_buongiorno_wear_siry_2003, title={International trade in forest products}, ISBN={1402010281}, DOI={10.1007/978-94-017-0219-5_11}, abstractNote={The 21st century continues a trend of rapid growth in both international trade of forest products and a concern for forests. These two trends are connected. Forces causing trade growth are linked to the loss of native forest resources in some countries and the accumulation of nonnative forest resources in other countries. Factors increasing trade include relaxation of trade barriers, income growth, and improvements in wood growing, harvest, and manufacturing technologies. But environmental concerns are increasing as consumer preferences change, and as native forests recede and plantation forests become more prominent.}, booktitle={Forests in a market economy}, publisher={Dordrecht; Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers}, author={Prestemon, J. P. and Buongiorno, J. and Wear, D. N. and Siry, J. P.}, editor={E. O. Sills and Abt, K. L.Editors}, year={2003} }
 @inbook{wear_2003, title={Public timber supply under multiple-use management}, ISBN={1402010281}, DOI={10.1007/978-94-017-0219-5_12}, abstractNote={In many parts of the world, substantial shares of timber inventories are managed by government agencies. The objective of this chapter is to examine the potential influence of public timber production on market structure as well as on prices, harvest quantities, and economic welfare. National forest management in the United States is used as a tractable case study, but findings provide general insights into the potential market effects of interactions between public and private producers in timber markets.}, booktitle={Forests in a market economy}, publisher={Dordrecht; Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers}, author={Wear, D. N.}, editor={E. O. Sills and Abt, K. L.Editors}, year={2003} }
 @article{johnsen_wear_oren_teskey_sanchez_will_butnor_markewitz_richter_rials_et al._2001, title={Carbon sequestration and southern pine forests}, volume={99}, number={4}, journal={Journal of Forestry}, author={Johnsen, K. H. and Wear, D. and Oren, R. and Teskey, R. O. and Sanchez, F. and Will, R. and Butnor, J. and Markewitz, D. and Richter, D. and Rials, T. and et al.}, year={2001}, pages={14–21} }
 @inproceedings{cubbage_siry_moffat_wear_abt_2000, title={Southern forest resource assessment and linkages to the National RPA}, booktitle={Portland '99, pioneering new trails: Proceedings of the Society of American Foresters 1999 National Convention, Portland, Oregon, September 11-15, 1999}, publisher={Bethesda, Maryland: Society of American Foresters}, author={Cubbage, F. and Siry, J. and Moffat, S. and Wear, D. and Abt, R.}, year={2000}, pages={344–349} }