@article{rossi_kuusela_2023, title={Carbon and Timber Management in Western Oregon under Tax-Financed Investments in Wildfire Risk Mitigation}, volume={48}, ISSN={["2327-8285"]}, DOI={10.22004/ag.econ.320670}, number={2}, journal={JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL AND RESOURCE ECONOMICS}, author={Rossi, David and Kuusela, Olli-Pekka}, year={2023}, month={May}, pages={376-+} } @article{dhungel_rossi_henderson_abt_sheffield_baker_2023, title={Critical Market Tipping Points for High-Grade White Oak Inventory Decline in the Central Hardwood Region of the United States}, volume={2}, ISSN={["1938-3746"]}, DOI={10.1093/jofore/fvad005}, abstractNote={Abstract This study expands the spatial scope of the Subregional Timber Supply (SRTS) model to include states in the central hardwood region and examine critical market tipping points of high-grade (large diameter) white oak under a set of illustrative scheduled demand scenarios. In light of the growing concern for future white oak timber supply, we illustrate the sensitivity of future inventory tipping points to market structure and price responsiveness. Particularly, we examined the importance of market demand parameters, including growth rates for product demand and supply/demand elasticities, in influencing future inventory trajectories in different subregions over the projection horizon. Results of this study indicate that more elastic demand and more inelastic supply response concomitantly defers the time before inventory culminates. This modeling framework shows promise in examining key ecological, climatic, and economic interrelationships that will drive future resource changes.}, journal={JOURNAL OF FORESTRY}, author={Dhungel, Gaurav and Rossi, David and Henderson, Jesse D. and Abt, Robert C. and Sheffield, Ray and Baker, Justin}, year={2023}, month={Feb} } @article{rossi_rushakoff_kuusela_2023, title={Impacts of the Small-Tract Forestland Tax Program on Forestland Use in Oregon}, ISSN={["1938-3738"]}, DOI={10.1093/forsci/fxad019}, abstractNote={Abstract Preferential tax programs for forest landowners are used to achieve land use–related environmental and social objectives. Nonindustrial landowners are likely to own forests near development boundaries, which may lead to a higher likelihood of land conversion from forests to alternative uses. This article answers the question of how preferential tax programs for small-tract forestland (STF) owners have influenced the conversion of forested lands in Oregon since 2005. We find that a 10% increase in STF program participation within a county (as measured by acreage enrolled) can lead to a conversion of 127 ac from wildland forest to mixed forest/agriculture since the prior forest inventory period. Compared with the default “Forestland” tax program, participation in the alternative STF tax program has had a smaller and statistically weaker effect on the number of acres converted to low-density residential use. However, hypothetical elimination of the STF tax program would increase enrollment in the default Forestland tax program, which was measured to have a greater effect on the conversion of wildland forest to low-density residential land. Hence, the results overall provide evidence that the STF program has achieved its objective of mitigating development pressures and reducing conversion of forestland to nonforest uses.}, journal={FOREST SCIENCE}, author={Rossi, David and Rushakoff, Ben and Kuusela, Olli-Pekka}, year={2023}, month={Apr} } @article{rossi_baker_abt_2023, title={Quantifying additionality thresholds for forest carbon offsets in Mississippi pine pulpwood markets}, volume={156}, ISSN={["1872-7050"]}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2023.103059}, DOI={10.1016/j.forpol.2023.103059}, abstractNote={Concerns over the additionality of carbon sequestration achieved through voluntary carbon market have threatened offset market credibility and stability. There is an urgent need to examine additionality in a dynamic market context. To this end, our analysis focuses on the extent to which deferred harvests of pine roundwood as an offset source can achieve additionality under changing roundwood prices across a large wood-producing region. Specifically, we consider the potential for offset market activity itself and for unexpected demand shocks to adjust carbon baselines as they each have an impact on the relative prices observed for industrial roundwood. We use a bioeconomic model of the roundwood market to simulate harvest activity and estimate the economically feasible levels of carbon storage across four wood-producing basins in Mississippi. We then present estimates of the expected changes in carbon storage under a given change in timber prices and demonstrate how this information can be used to approximate the optimal reaction curve for an offset broker, dealer, or verification program manager seeking to ensure additionality with credits they exchange. The optimal reaction curve consists of a response to a change in the roundwood price state by either approving supplementary harvest deferral contracts or by restricting the supply of new contracts, depending on the direction of the observed price change. Alternatively, the results suggest that contracts could be structured to facilitate payment conditional on realized timber price outcomes, rather than solely on evidence of a delayed harvest.}, journal={FOREST POLICY AND ECONOMICS}, author={Rossi, David J. and Baker, Justin S. and Abt, Robert C.}, year={2023}, month={Nov} } @article{rossi_kuusela_dunn_2022, title={A microeconometric analysis of wildfire suppression decisions in the Western United States}, volume={200}, ISSN={["1873-6106"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.ecolecon.2022.107525}, abstractNote={Full suppression strategies remain the dominant option in wildfire management, despite a large body of research demonstrating the ecological and economic benefits of allowing unplanned wildfires to burn under favorable conditions. Consequently, empirical research identifying and understanding the factors that contribute to these decisions within public land management agencies has become of critical importance in efforts to improve management outcomes. This paper assesses the importance of a set of institutional and socioeconomic factors with a random utility model of incident commander suppression decisions. We compare the importance of these factors on chosen strategies before and after an update to federal fire policy implementation guidance and an associated change to federal fire budgeting policy implemented in Fiscal Year 2010. We find that while the update to federal fire policy guidance may have been effective at increasing the probability that managers adopted a strategy other than full suppression, the subsequent increase in suppression budget allotments offset this impact, rendering no true difference in probabilities after the policy change.}, journal={ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS}, author={Rossi, David and Kuusela, Olli-Pekka and Dunn, Christopher}, year={2022}, month={Oct} } @article{kulkarni_rossi_2022, title={Determinants of downside risk exposure: An analysis of Korean rice farms using partial and quantile moments}, ISSN={["2040-5804"]}, DOI={10.1002/aepp.13320}, abstractNote={AbstractThe past decade has seen a resurgence in methods such as the partial and quantile moments model for measuring downside risk exposure and downside risk aversion. However, mixed conclusions are drawn regarding the identification and determinants of downside risk exposure attributable to the methodological differences in the approaches to risk estimation. In this paper, we replicate Kim et al. (2014) who perform a quantile moments‐based analysis of risk exposure. Extending the original study, we address the methodological differences in approaches to measuring downside risk with further robustness checks, including alternative estimation approaches and a comparison to the partial moments model (Antle, 2010). Our results confirm the original finding of Kim et al. (2014) that around 90% of the cost of risk is attributable to downside risk exposure. However, this estimate is highly sensitive to the specification of the estimated mean production as well as the choice of the statistical estimator. Finally, our results suggest that both the quantile moments model and the partial moments model provide similar insights on the determinants of downside risk exposure as well as the cost of risk.}, journal={APPLIED ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES AND POLICY}, author={Kulkarni, Kedar and Rossi, David}, year={2022}, month={Aug} }