@article{asaro_koch_potter_2023, title={Denser forests across the USA experience more damage from insects and pathogens}, volume={13}, ISSN={["2045-2322"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-30675-z}, DOI={10.1038/s41598-023-30675-z}, abstractNote={AbstractForests across much of the United States are becoming denser. Trees growing in denser stands experience more competition for essential resources, which can make them more vulnerable to disturbances. Forest density can be expressed in terms of basal area, a metric that has been used to assess vulnerability of some forests to damage by certain insects or pathogens. A raster map of total tree basal area (TBA) for the conterminous United States was compared with annual (2000–2019) survey maps of forest damage due to insects and pathogens. Across each of four regions, median TBA was significantly higher within forest areas defoliated or killed by insects or pathogens than in areas without recorded damage. Therefore, TBA may serve as a regional-scale indicator of forest health and a first filter for identifying areas that merit finer-scale analysis of forest conditions.}, number={1}, journal={SCIENTIFIC REPORTS}, author={Asaro, Christopher and Koch, Frank H. and Potter, Kevin M.}, year={2023}, month={Mar} }
 @article{hudgins_koch_ambrose_leung_2022, title={Hotspots of pest-induced US urban tree death, 2020-2050}, ISSN={["1365-2664"]}, DOI={10.1111/1365-2664.14141}, abstractNote={Abstract


Urban trees are important nature‐based solutions for future well‐being and liveability but are at high risk of mortality from insect pests. In the United States (US), 82% of the population live in urban settings and this number is growing, making urban tree mortality a matter of concern for most of its population. Until now, the magnitudes and spatial distributions of risks were unknown.

Here, we combine new models of street tree populations in ~30,000 US communities, species‐specific spread predictions for 57 invasive insect species and estimates of tree death due to insect exposure for 48 host tree genera.

We estimate that 1.4 million street trees will be killed by invasive insects from 2020 through 2050, costing an annualized average of US$ 30 M. However, these estimates hide substantial variation: 23% of urban centres will experience 95% of all insect‐induced mortality. Furthermore, 90% of all mortality will be due to emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis, EAB), which is expected to kill virtually all ash trees (Fraxinus spp.) in >6,000 communities.

We define an EAB high‐impact zone spanning 902,500 km2, largely within the southern and central US, within which we predict the death of 98.8% of all ash trees. ‘Mortality hotspot cities’ include Milwaukee, WI; Chicago, IL; and New York, NY.

We identify Asian wood borers of maple and oak trees as the highest risk future invaders, where a new establishment could cost US$ 4.9B over 30 years.

Policy implications. To plan effective mitigation, forest pest managers must know which tree species in which communities will be at the greatest risk, as well as the highest risk species. We provide the first country‐wide, spatial forecast of urban tree mortality due to invasive insect pests. This framework identifies dominant pest insects and spatial impact hotspots, which can provide the basis for spatial prioritization of spread control efforts such as quarantines and biological control release sites. Our results highlight the need for emerald ash borer (EAB) early‐detection efforts as far from current infestations as Seattle, WA. Furthermore, these findings produce a list of biotic and spatiotemporal risk factors for future high‐impact US urban forest insect pests.

}, journal={JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY}, author={Hudgins, Emma J. and Koch, Frank H. and Ambrose, Mark J. and Leung, Brian}, year={2022}, month={Mar} }
 @article{takeuchi_koch_nelson_2021, title={Recent Immigrant Insect Fauna—Another Look at a Classic Analysis}, volume={12}, ISSN={2155-7470}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jipm/pmab034}, DOI={10.1093/jipm/pmab034}, abstractNote={Abstract
               In 1978, Reece Sailer published a seminal retrospective entitled ‘Our Immigrant Insect Fauna.’ His goals were to better understand the origins and historical patterns of alien insect species introductions into the United States and establish a baseline for future work to improve our ability to respond to environmental and agricultural well-being threats. We updated Sailer’s study to include information on species introduced recently into the United States and that are now targeted by regulatory agencies. The recent trends (recorded through 2016) are different from those reported by Sailer. Asian-origin species are much more important than in 1978 and predominate today. Nevertheless, introductions from all parts of the world have continued. Although the diversity of alien species’ origins has increased through time, there has not been a corresponding change in the rate of introductions of species of phytosanitary importance. This finding is inconsistent with our original assumption of a positive nonlinear relationship with international trade imports. Our findings will assist in identifying and prioritizing potential high-risk plant pests as well as enhancing biosecurity capacities.}, number={1}, journal={Journal of Integrated Pest Management}, publisher={Oxford University Press (OUP)}, author={Takeuchi, Yu and Koch, Frank H and Nelson, Stacy A C}, editor={Green, JodyEditor}, year={2021}, month={Jan} }
 @article{yemshanov_koch_ben-haim_downing_sapio_siltanen_2013, title={A New Multicriteria Risk Mapping Approach Based on a Multiattribute Frontier Concept}, volume={33}, ISSN={["1539-6924"]}, DOI={10.1111/risa.12013}, abstractNote={Invasive species risk maps provide broad guidance on where to allocate resources for pest monitoring and regulation, but they often present individual risk components (such as climatic suitability, host abundance, or introduction potential) as independent entities. These independent risk components are integrated using various multicriteria analysis techniques that typically require prior knowledge of the risk components’ importance. Such information is often nonexistent for many invasive pests. This study proposes a new approach for building integrated risk maps using the principle of a multiattribute efficient frontier and analyzing the partial order of elements of a risk map as distributed in multidimensional criteria space. The integrated risks are estimated as subsequent multiattribute frontiers in dimensions of individual risk criteria. We demonstrate the approach with the example of Agrilus biguttatus Fabricius, a high‐risk pest that may threaten North American oak forests in the near future. Drawing on U.S. and Canadian data, we compare the performance of the multiattribute ranking against a multicriteria linear weighted averaging technique in the presence of uncertainties, using the concept of robustness from info‐gap decision theory. The results show major geographic hotspots where the consideration of tradeoffs between multiple risk components changes integrated risk rankings. Both methods delineate similar geographical regions of high and low risks. Overall, aggregation based on a delineation of multiattribute efficient frontiers can be a useful tool to prioritize risks for anticipated invasive pests, which usually have an extremely poor prior knowledge base.}, number={9}, journal={RISK ANALYSIS}, author={Yemshanov, Denys and Koch, Frank H. and Ben-Haim, Yakov and Downing, Marla and Sapio, Frank and Siltanen, Marty}, year={2013}, month={Sep}, pages={1694–1709} }
 @article{koch_yemshanov_magarey_smith_2012, title={Dispersal of Invasive Forest Insects via Recreational Firewood: A Quantitative Analysis}, volume={105}, ISSN={["1938-291X"]}, DOI={10.1603/ec11270}, abstractNote={ABSTRACT Recreational travel is a recognized vector for the spread of invasive species in North America. However, there has been little quantitative analysis of the risks posed by such travel and the associated transport of firewood. In this study, we analyzed the risk of forest insect spread with firewood and estimated related dispersal parameters for application in geographically explicit invasion models. Our primary data source was the U.S. National Recreation Reservation Service database, which records camper reservations at >2,500 locations nationwide. For >7 million individual reservations made between 2004 and 2009 (including visits from Canada), we calculated the distance between visitor home address and campground location. We constructed an empirical dispersal kernel (i.e., the probability distribution of the travel distances) from these “origin-destination” data, and then fitted the data with various theoretical distributions. We found the data to be strongly leptokurtic (fat-tailed) and fairly well fit by the unbounded Johnson and lognormal distributions. Most campers (≈53%) traveled <100 km, but ≈10% traveled >500 km (and as far as 5,500 km). Additionally, we examined the impact of geographic region, specific destinations (major national parks), and specific origin locations (major cities) on the shape of the dispersal kernel, and found that mixture distributions (i.e., theoretical distribution functions composed of multiple univariate distributions) may fit better in some circumstances. Although only a limited amount of all transported firewood is likely to be infested by forest insects, this still represents a considerable increase in dispersal potential beyond the insects' natural spread capabilities.}, number={2}, journal={JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC ENTOMOLOGY}, author={Koch, Frank H. and Yemshanov, Denys and Magarey, Roger D. and Smith, William D.}, year={2012}, month={Apr}, pages={438–450} }
 @article{yemshanov_koch_lyons_ducey_koehler_2012, title={A dominance-based approach to map risks of ecological invasions in the presence of severe uncertainty}, volume={18}, ISSN={["1366-9516"]}, DOI={10.1111/j.1472-4642.2011.00848.x}, abstractNote={AbstractAim Uncertainty has been widely recognized as one of the most critical issues in predicting the expansion of ecological invasions. The uncertainty associated with the introduction and spread of invasive organisms influences how pest management decision makers respond to expanding incursions. We present a model‐based approach to map risk of ecological invasions that combines two potentially conflicting goals: (1) estimating the likelihood of a new organism being established at a given locale and (2) quantifying the uncertainty of that prediction.Location Eastern and central Canada.Methods Our methodology focuses on the potential for long‐distance, human‐assisted spread of invasive organisms. First, we used a spatial simulation model to generate distributions of plausible invasion outcomes over a target geographical region. We then used second‐degree stochastic dominance (SSD) criteria to rank all geographical locations in the target region based on these distributions. We applied the approach to analyze pathways of human‐assisted spread (i.e., with commercially transported goods) of the emerald ash borer (EAB) (Agrilus planipennisFairmaire), a major pest of ash trees in North America.Results The projected potential of the pest to establish at remote locations is significantly shaped by the amount of epistemic uncertainty in the model‐based forecasts. The estimates based on the SSD ranking identified major ‘crossroads’ through which the movement of the EAB with commercial transport is most likely to occur. The system of major expressways in Ontario and Quebec was confirmed as the primary gateway of the pest’s expansion throughout the Canadian landscape.Main conclusions Overall, the new approach generates more realistic predictions of long‐distance introductions than models that do not account for severe uncertainties and thus can help design more effective pest surveillance programmes. The modelling technique is generic and can be applied to assess other environmental phenomena when the level of epistemic uncertainty is high.}, number={1}, journal={DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS}, author={Yemshanov, Denys and Koch, Frank H. and Lyons, D. Barry and Ducey, Mark and Koehler, Klaus}, year={2012}, month={Jan}, pages={33–46} }
 @article{yemshanova_koch_ben-haim_smith_2010, title={Detection capacity, information gaps and the design of surveillance programs for invasive forest pests}, volume={91}, ISSN={["1095-8630"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.jenvman.2010.07.009}, abstractNote={Integrated pest risk maps and their underlying assessments provide broad guidance for establishing surveillance programs for invasive species, but they rarely account for knowledge gaps regarding the pest of interest or how these can be reduced. In this study we demonstrate how the somewhat competing notions of robustness to uncertainty and potential knowledge gains could be used in prioritizing large-scale surveillance activities. We illustrate this approach with the example of an invasive pest recently detected in North America, Sirex noctilio Fabricius. First, we formulate existing knowledge about the pest into a stochastic model and use the model to estimate the expected utility of surveillance efforts across the landscape. The expected utility accounts for the distribution, abundance and susceptibility of the host resource as well as the value of timely S. noctilio detections. Next, we make use of the info-gap decision theory framework to explore two alternative pest surveillance strategies. The first strategy aims for timely, certain detections and attempts to maximize the robustness to uncertainty about S. noctilio behavior; the second strategy aims to maximize the potential knowledge gain about the pest via unanticipated (i.e., opportune) detections. The results include a set of spatial outputs for each strategy that can be used independently to prioritize surveillance efforts. However, we demonstrate an alternative approach in which these outputs are combined via the Pareto ranking technique into a single priority map that outlines the survey regions with the best trade-offs between both surveillance strategies.}, number={12}, journal={JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT}, author={Yemshanova, Denys and Koch, Frank H. and Ben-Haim, Yakov and Smith, William D.}, year={2010}, month={Dec}, pages={2535–2546} }
 @article{venette_kriticos_magarey_koch_baker_worner_raboteaux_mckenney_dobesberger_yemshanov_et al._2010, title={Pest Risk Maps for Invasive Alien Species: A Roadmap for Improvement}, volume={60}, ISSN={["0006-3568"]}, DOI={10.1525/bio.2010.60.5.5}, abstractNote={Pest risk maps are powerful visual communication tools to describe where invasive alien species might arrive, establish, spread, or cause harmful impacts. These maps inform strategic and tactical pest management decisions, such as potential restrictions on international trade or the design of pest surveys and domestic quarantines. Diverse methods are available to create pest risk maps, and can potentially yield different depictions of risk for the same species. Inherent uncertainties about the biology of the invader, future climate conditions, and species interactions further complicate map interpretation. If multiple maps are available, risk managers must choose how to incorporate the various representations of risk into their decisionmaking process, and may make significant errors if they misunderstand what each map portrays. This article describes the need for pest risk maps, compares pest risk mapping methods, and recommends future research to improve such important decision-support tools.}, number={5}, journal={BIOSCIENCE}, author={Venette, Robert C. and Kriticos, Darren J. and Magarey, Roger D. and Koch, Frank H. and Baker, Richard H. A. and Worner, Susan P. and Raboteaux, Nadilia N. Gomez and McKenney, Daniel W. and Dobesberger, Erhard J. and Yemshanov, Denys and et al.}, year={2010}, month={May}, pages={349–362} }
 @article{koch_yemshanov_colunga-garcia_magarey_smith_2011, title={Potential establishment of alien-invasive forest insect species in the United States: where and how many?}, volume={13}, ISSN={["1573-1464"]}, DOI={10.1007/s10530-010-9883-8}, number={4}, journal={BIOLOGICAL INVASIONS}, author={Koch, Frank H. and Yemshanov, Denys and Colunga-Garcia, Manuel and Magarey, Roger D. and Smith, William D.}, year={2011}, month={Apr}, pages={969–985} }
 @inproceedings{potter_hargrove_koch_2010, title={Predicting climate change extirpation risk for central and southern Appalachian forest tree species}, booktitle={Proceedings from the Conference on Ecology and Management of High-Elevation Forests of the Central and Southern Appalachian Mountains}, author={Potter, K.M. and Hargrove, W.W. and Koch, F.H.}, year={2010}, pages={179–189} }
 @article{duehl_koch_hain_2011, title={Southern pine beetle regional outbreaks modeled on landscape, climate and infestation history}, volume={261}, ISSN={["1872-7042"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.foreco.2010.10.032}, abstractNote={The southern pine beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis, SPB) is the major insect pest of pine species in the southeastern United States. It attains outbreak population levels sufficient to mass attack host pines across the landscape at scales ranging from a single forest stand to interstate epidemics. This county level analysis selected and examined the best climatic and landscape variables for predicting infestations at regional scales. The analysis showed that, for a given county, the most important factor in predicting outbreaks was that the county was classified as in outbreak status in the previous year. Other important factors included minimum winter temperature and the greatest difference between the average of daily minimums and a subsequent low temperature point, precipitation history either seasonally in the previous year or difference from average over the previous 2 years, the synchronizing effect of seasonal temperatures on beetle populations and the relative percentage of total forest area composed of host species. The statistical models showed that climatic variables are stronger indicators of outbreak likelihood than landscape structure and cover variables. Average climatic conditions were more likely to lead to outbreaks than extreme conditions, supporting the notion of coupling between a native insect and its native host. Still, some extreme events (i.e., periods of very low temperature or very high precipitation) did precede beetle infestation. This analysis suggested that there are predisposing and inciting factors at the large scale but the driving factors leading to individual infestations operate at smaller scales.}, number={3}, journal={FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT}, author={Duehl, Adrian J. and Koch, Frank H. and Hain, Fred P.}, year={2011}, month={Feb}, pages={473–479} }
 @article{koch_yemshanov_mckenney_smith_2009, title={Evaluating Critical Uncertainty Thresholds in a Spatial Model of Forest Pest Invasion Risk}, volume={29}, ISSN={["1539-6924"]}, DOI={10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01251.x}, abstractNote={Pest risk maps can provide useful decision support in invasive species management, but most do not adequately consider the uncertainty associated with predicted risk values. This study explores how increased uncertainty in a risk model's numeric assumptions might affect the resultant risk map. We used a spatial stochastic model, integrating components for entry, establishment, and spread, to estimate the risks of invasion and their variation across a two‐dimensional landscape for Sirex noctilio, a nonnative woodwasp recently detected in the United States and Canada. Here, we present a sensitivity analysis of the mapped risk estimates to variation in key model parameters. The tested parameter values were sampled from symmetric uniform distributions defined by a series of nested bounds (±5%, … , ±40%) around the parameters' initial values. The results suggest that the maximum annual spread distance, which governs long‐distance dispersal, was by far the most sensitive parameter. At ±15% or larger variability bound increments for this parameter, there were noteworthy shifts in map risk values, but no other parameter had a major effect, even at wider bounds of variation. The methodology presented here is generic and can be used to assess the impact of uncertainties on the stability of pest risk maps as well as to identify geographic areas for which management decisions can be made confidently, regardless of uncertainty.}, number={9}, journal={RISK ANALYSIS}, author={Koch, Frank H. and Yemshanov, Denys and McKenney, Daniel W. and Smith, William D.}, year={2009}, month={Sep}, pages={1227–1241} }
 @article{yemshanov_koch_mckenney_downing_sapio_2009, title={Mapping Invasive Species Risks with Stochastic Models: A Cross-Border United States-Canada Application for Sirex noctilio Fabricius}, volume={29}, ISSN={["1539-6924"]}, DOI={10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01203.x}, abstractNote={Nonindigenous species have caused significant impacts to North American forests despite past and present international phytosanitary efforts. Though broadly acknowledged, the risks of pest invasions are difficult to quantify as they involve interactions between many factors that operate across a range of spatial and temporal scales: the transmission of invading organisms via various pathways, their spread and establishment in new environments. Our study presents a stochastic simulation approach to quantify these risks and associated uncertainties through time in a unified fashion. We outline this approach with an example of a forest pest recently detected in North America, Sirex noctilio Fabricius. We simulate new potential entries of S. noctilio as a stochastic process, based on recent volumes of marine shipments of commodities from countries where S. noctilio is established, as well as the broad dynamics of foreign marine imports. The results are then linked with a spatial model that simulates the spread of S. noctilio within the geographical distribution of its hosts (pines) while incorporating existing knowledge about its behavior in North American landscapes. Through replications, this approach yields a spatial representation of S. noctilio risks and uncertainties in a single integrated product. The approach should also be appealing to decisionmakers, since it accounts for projected flows of commodities that may serve as conduits for pest entry. Our 30‐year forecasts indicate high establishment probability in Ontario, Quebec, and the northeastern United States, but further southward expansion of S. noctilio is uncertain, ultimately depending on the impact of recent international treatment standards for wood packing materials.}, number={6}, journal={RISK ANALYSIS}, author={Yemshanov, Denys and Koch, Frank H. and McKenney, Daniel W. and Downing, Marla C. and Sapio, Frank}, year={2009}, month={Jun}, pages={868–884} }
 @article{yemshanov_koch_ben-haim_smith_2010, title={Robustness of Risk Maps and Survey Networks to Knowledge Gaps About a New Invasive Pest}, volume={30}, ISSN={["1539-6924"]}, DOI={10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01284.x}, abstractNote={In pest risk assessment it is frequently necessary to make management decisions regarding emerging threats under severe uncertainty. Although risk maps provide useful decision support for invasive alien species, they rarely address knowledge gaps associated with the underlying risk model or how they may change the risk estimates. Failure to recognize uncertainty leads to risk‐ignorant decisions and miscalculation of expected impacts as well as the costs required to minimize these impacts. Here we use the information gap concept to evaluate the robustness of risk maps to uncertainties in key assumptions about an invading organism. We generate risk maps with a spatial model of invasion that simulates potential entries of an invasive pest via international marine shipments, their spread through a landscape, and establishment on a susceptible host. In particular, we focus on the question of how much uncertainty in risk model assumptions can be tolerated before the risk map loses its value. We outline this approach with an example of a forest pest recently detected in North America, Sirex noctilio Fabricius. The results provide a spatial representation of the robustness of predictions of S. noctilio invasion risk to uncertainty and show major geographic hotspots where the consideration of uncertainty in model parameters may change management decisions about a new invasive pest. We then illustrate how the dependency between the extent of uncertainties and the degree of robustness of a risk map can be used to select a surveillance network design that is most robust to knowledge gaps about the pest.}, number={2}, journal={RISK ANALYSIS}, author={Yemshanov, Denys and Koch, Frank H. and Ben-Haim, Yakov and Smith, William D.}, year={2010}, month={Feb}, pages={261–276} }
 @misc{yemshanov_mckenney_pedlar_koch_cook_2009, title={Towards an integrated approach to modelling the risks and impacts of invasive forest species}, volume={17}, ISSN={["1181-8700"]}, DOI={10.1139/a09-007}, abstractNote={In this paper we provide an overview of an integrated approach to modelling the risks and impacts associated with non-indigenous forest pest species. This is a broad and important topic given the scale of ecological and economic consequences associated with non-indigenous species in North America and elsewhere. Assessments of risks and impacts remain difficult due to complexities and interactions between the many factors driving invasions and outcomes. These processes occur across various spatial and temporal scales, and are often influenced and complicated by human activities. For each component of an ecological invasion (i.e., arrival, establishment, and spread), we review general approaches for modelling the phenomenon and identify data and knowledge gaps. With the greater availability of various spatial data and computational power we suggest the possibility of linking the models for each invasion component into a more integrated framework, thus allowing interactions and feedbacks between components to be better incorporated into risk modelling efforts. The approach is illustrated using examples from current work with Sirex noctilio Fabricius — a relatively new invasive wood wasp in eastern North America.}, journal={ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEWS}, author={Yemshanov, Denys and McKenney, Daniel W. and Pedlar, John H. and Koch, Frank H. and Cook, David}, year={2009}, pages={163–178} }
 @article{coulston_koch_smith_sapio_2008, title={Invasive forest pest surveillance: survey development and reliability}, volume={38}, ISSN={["0045-5067"]}, DOI={10.1139/X08-076}, abstractNote={ Worldwide, a large number of potential pest species are introduced to locations outside their native ranges; under the best possible prevention scheme, some are likely to establish one or more localized populations. A comprehensive early detection and rapid-response protocol calls for surveillance to determine if a pest has invaded additional locations outside its original area of introduction. In this manuscript, we adapt and spatially extend a two-stage sampling technique to determine the required sample size to substantiate freedom from an invasive pest with a known level of certainty. The technique, derived from methods for sampling livestock herds for disease presence, accounts for the fact that pest activity may be low at a coarse spatial scale (i.e., among forested landscapes) but high at a fine scale (i.e., within a given forested landscape). We illustrate the utility of the approach by generating a national-scale survey based on a risk map for a hypothetical forest pest species threatening the United States. These techniques provide a repeatable, cost-effective, practical framework for developing broad-scale surveys to substantiate freedom from non-native invasive forest pests with known statistical power. }, number={9}, journal={CANADIAN JOURNAL OF FOREST RESEARCH-REVUE CANADIENNE DE RECHERCHE FORESTIERE}, author={Coulston, John W. and Koch, Frank H. and Smith, William D. and Sapio, Frank J.}, year={2008}, month={Sep}, pages={2422–2433} }
 @article{koch_smith_2008, title={Spatio-temporal analysis of Xyleborus glabratus (Coleoptera : Circulionidae : Scolytinae) invasion in eastern US forests}, volume={37}, ISSN={["1938-2936"]}, DOI={10.1603/0046-225X(2008)37[442:SAOXGC]2.0.CO;2}, abstractNote={Abstract The non-native redbay ambrosia beetle, Xyleborus glabratus Eichhoff (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae), has recently emerged as a significant pest of southeastern U.S. coastal forests. Specifically, a fungal symbiont (Raffaelea sp.) of X. glabratus has caused mortality of redbay (Persea borbonia) and sassafras (Sassafras albidum) trees in the region; several other Lauraceae species also seem susceptible. Although the range of X. glabratus continues to expand rapidly, little is known about the species’ biology and behavior. In turn, there has been no broad-scale assessment of the threat it poses to eastern U.S. forests. To provide a basic information framework, we performed analyses exploiting relevant spatio-temporal data available for X. glabratus. First, we mapped the densities of redbay and sassafras from forest inventory data. Second, we used climate matching to delineate potential geographic limits for X. glabratus. Third, we used county infestation data to estimate the rate of spread and modeled spread through time, incorporating host density as a weighting factor. Our results suggest that (1) key areas with high concentrations of redbay have yet to be invaded, but some are immediately threatened; (2) climatic conditions may serve to constrain X. glabratus to the southeastern U.S. coastal region; and (3) if unchecked, X. glabratus may spread throughout the range of redbay in <40 yr. Disruption of anthropogenic, long-distance dispersal could reduce the likelihood of this outcome.}, number={2}, journal={ENVIRONMENTAL ENTOMOLOGY}, author={Koch, F. H. and Smith, W. D.}, year={2008}, month={Apr}, pages={442–452} }
 @article{mcshea_healy_devers_fearer_koch_stauffer_waldon_2007, title={Forestry matters: Decline of oaks will impact wildlife in hardwood forests}, volume={71}, ISSN={["1937-2817"]}, DOI={10.2193/2006-169}, abstractNote={Abstract: Acom production by oaks (Quercus spp.) is an important food resource for wildlife in many deciduous forests. Its role as a hard mast crop that can be either stored or used to build fat reserves for winter survival cannot be replaced by most other potential foods. Changes in forest management, introduced pests and pathogens, and increased deer populations have resulted in significant changes in the demography of oaks in eastern North America, as evident in Forest Inventory and Analysis data. Specifically, maples (Acer spp.) are replacing oaks in many forests through dominance of the younger age classes. These changes are not yet obvious in mast production but will take decades to reverse. Effective forest management for mast production is arguably one of the more important tasks facing wildlife professionals, yet receives scant attention by both public and private land managers. Public forests need to explicitly include mast production in their forest planning and reduce adversarial relationships over forest management. Market forces are driving commercial forests toward forest certification. Private forests compose 80% of our oak forests and are the hardest group to influence. States have not been able to effectively market forest plans and we recommend joining with advocacy groups more adept at motivating the public. Increased communication between wildlife and forestry professionals is needed through agency restructuring and joint meetings of professional agencies at the state level. Professional wildlife and forest managers are encouraged to make increased use of monitoring data and form a multiagency cooperative using a joint venture model, which has been successful for other organizations.}, number={5}, journal={JOURNAL OF WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT}, author={McShea, William J. and Healy, William M. and Devers, Patrick and Fearer, Todd and Koch, Frank H. and Stauffer, Dean and Waldon, Jeff}, year={2007}, month={Jul}, pages={1717–1728} }
 @article{koch_cheshire_devine_2006, title={Landscape-scale prediction of hemlock woolly adelgid, Adelges tsugae (Homoptera : Adelgidae), infestation in the southern Appalachian Mountains}, volume={35}, ISSN={["1938-2936"]}, DOI={10.1603/0046-225X(2006)35[1313:LPOHWA]2.0.CO;2}, abstractNote={Abstract After causing substantial mortality in the northeastern and mid-Atlantic United States, the hemlock woolly adelgid, Adelges tsugae Annand (Homoptera: Adelgidae), has recently invaded the southern Appalachian region. Although general estimates of regional spread exist, the landscape-level dynamics of A. tsugae invasion are poorly understood—particularly factors predicting where the pest is likely to first infest a landscape. We examined first-year infestation locations from Great Smoky Mountains National Park and the Blue Ridge Parkway to identify possible factors. For 84 infested and 67 uninfested sites, we calculated values for a suite of variables using a geographic information system. After identifying significant variables, we applied four statistical techniques—discriminant analysis, k-nearest neighbor analysis, logistic regression, and decision trees—to derive classification functions separating the infested and uninfested groups. We used the resulting functions to generate maps of A. tsugae infestation risk in the Great Smoky Mountains. Three proximity variables (distance to the closest stream, trail, and road) appeared in all four classification functions, which performed well in terms of error rate. Discriminant analysis was the most accurate and efficient technique, but logistic regression best balanced accuracy, efficiency, and ease of use. Our results suggest that roads, major trails, and riparian corridors provide connectivity enabling long-distance dispersal of A. tsugae, probably by humans or birds. The derived classification functions can yield A. tsugae infestation risk maps for elsewhere in the southern Appalachian region, allowing forest managers to better target control efforts.}, number={5}, journal={ENVIRONMENTAL ENTOMOLOGY}, author={Koch, F. H. and Cheshire, H. M. and Devine, H. A.}, year={2006}, month={Oct}, pages={1313–1323} }
 @article{favreau_drew_hess_rubino_koch_eschelbach_2006, title={Recommendations for assessing the effectiveness of surrogate species approaches}, volume={15}, ISSN={["1572-9710"]}, DOI={10.1007/s10531-005-2631-1}, number={12}, journal={BIODIVERSITY AND CONSERVATION}, publisher={Springer Nature}, author={Favreau, Jorie M. and Drew, C. Ashton and Hess, George R. and Rubino, Matthew J. and Koch, Frank H. and Eschelbach, Katherine A.}, year={2006}, month={Nov}, pages={3949–3969} }
 @article{hess_koch_rubino_eschelbach_drew_favreau_2006, title={Comparing the potential effectiveness of conservation planning approaches in central North Carolina, USA}, volume={128}, ISSN={["1873-2917"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.biocon.2005.10.003}, abstractNote={We compared four approaches to conservation site selection to protect forest biodiversity in the Triangle Region of North Carolina, USA. Using biological inventory data and an inventory-based conservation plan as benchmarks, we evaluated the potential effectiveness of a focal species plan and three "simple" plans (large forested patches, close to wetlands and riparian areas, diverse forest types). Effectiveness was measured in three ways: the number of inventory elements captured at least once by the plan (representation), the total number of inventory elements captured (completeness), and the proportion of land in the inventory-based plan included (overlap). We further examined the potential effectiveness of the simple plans by calculating their overlap with land identified by the focal species approach. The simple and focal species plans did not differ markedly in terms of representation, but diverged when completeness and overlap were considered. Although representation rates for all four plans were relatively high, lower rates for completeness and overlap raise concerns about long-term viability. The simple plans did not identify the same lands as the focal species plan, and are thus unlikely to provide appropriate habitat for the focal species. Each approach we tested failed to capture some subset of species and communities, highlighting the importance of explicit conservation targets and consideration of ecological processes. Forced to act quickly and with little data, our findings suggest using initially a set of complementary simple plans, each focused on a different habitat type. This should be considered a stopgap measure, however, while more sophisticated plans are constructed, defining explicit conservation targets and considering ecological processes.}, number={3}, journal={BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Hess, GR and Koch, FH and Rubino, MJ and Eschelbach, KA and Drew, CA and Favreau, JM}, year={2006}, month={Mar}, pages={358–368} }