@article{campbell_lackmann_molina_parker_2024, title={Severe Convective Storms in Limited Instability Organized by Pattern and Distribution}, volume={39}, ISSN={["1520-0434"]}, DOI={10.1175/WAF-D-23-0130.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={1}, journal={WEATHER AND FORECASTING}, author={Campbell, Trevor A. and Lackmann, Gary M. and Molina, Maria J. and Parker, Matthew D.}, year={2024}, month={Jan}, pages={217–240} }
 @article{chase_harrison_lackmann_mcgovern_2023, title={A Machine Learning Tutorial for Operational Meteorology. Part II: Neural Networks and Deep Learning}, volume={38}, ISSN={["1520-0434"]}, DOI={10.1175/WAF-D-22-0187.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={8}, journal={WEATHER AND FORECASTING}, author={Chase, Randy J. and Harrison, David R. and Lackmann, Gary M. and Mcgovern, Amy}, year={2023}, month={Aug}, pages={1271–1293} }
 @article{radford_lackmann_goodwin_correia jr_harnos_2023, title={An Iterative Approach toward Development of Ensemble Visualization Techniques for High-Impact Winter Weather Hazards}, volume={104}, ISSN={["1520-0477"]}, DOI={10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0193.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={9}, journal={BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY}, author={Radford, Jacob T. and Lackmann, Gary M. and Goodwin, Jean and Correia Jr, James and Harnos, Kirstin}, year={2023}, month={Sep}, pages={E1649–E1669} }
 @article{radford_lackmann_goodwin_correia jr_harnos_2023, title={An Iterative Approach toward Development of Ensemble Visualization Techniques for High-Impact Winter Weather Hazards Part I: Product Development}, volume={104}, ISSN={["1520-0477"]}, DOI={10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0192.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={9}, journal={BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY}, author={Radford, Jacob T. and Lackmann, Gary M. and Goodwin, Jean and Correia Jr, James and Harnos, Kirstin}, year={2023}, month={Sep}, pages={E1630–E1648} }
 @article{radford_lackmann_2023, title={Assessing Variations in the Predictive Skill of Ensemble Snowband Forecasts with Object-Oriented Verification and Self-Organizing Maps}, volume={38}, ISSN={["1520-0434"]}, DOI={10.1175/WAF-D-23-0004.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={9}, journal={WEATHER AND FORECASTING}, author={Radford, Jacob T. and Lackmann, Gary M.}, year={2023}, month={Sep}, pages={1673–1693} }
 @article{jung_lackmann_2023, title={Changes in Tropical Cyclones Undergoing Extratropical Transition in a Warming Climate: Quasi-Idealized Numerical Experiments of North Atlantic Landfalling Events}, volume={50}, ISSN={["1944-8007"]}, DOI={10.1029/2022GL101963}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={8}, journal={GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS}, author={Jung, Chunyong and Lackmann, Gary M. M.}, year={2023}, month={Apr} }
 @article{radford_lackmann_2023, title={Improving High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) System Mesoscale Snowband Forecasts with Random Forests}, volume={38}, ISSN={["1520-0434"]}, DOI={10.1175/WAF-D-23-0005.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={9}, journal={WEATHER AND FORECASTING}, author={Radford, Jacob T. and Lackmann, Gary M.}, year={2023}, month={Sep}, pages={1695–1706} }
 @article{chase_harrison_burke_lackmann_mcgovern_2022, title={A Machine Learning Tutorial for Operational Meteorology. Part I: Traditional Machine Learning}, volume={37}, ISSN={["1520-0434"]}, DOI={10.1175/WAF-D-22-0070.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={8}, journal={WEATHER AND FORECASTING}, author={Chase, Randy J. and Harrison, David R. and Burke, Amanda and Lackmann, Gary M. and McGovern, Amy}, year={2022}, month={Aug}, pages={1509–1529} }
 @article{zick_matyas_lackmann_tang_bennett_2022, title={Illustration of an object-based approach to identify structural differences in tropical cyclone wind fields}, volume={7}, ISSN={["1477-870X"]}, DOI={10.1002/qj.4326}, abstractNote={Abstract}, journal={QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY}, author={Zick, Stephanie and Matyas, Corene and Lackmann, Gary and Tang, Jingyin and Bennett, Brian}, year={2022}, month={Jul} }
 @article{turnau_robinson_lackmann_michaelis_2022, title={Model Projections of Increased Severity of Heat Waves in Eastern Europe}, volume={49}, ISSN={["1944-8007"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100183}, DOI={10.1029/2022GL100183}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={22}, journal={GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS}, author={Turnau, Roger and Robinson, Walter A. A. and Lackmann, Gary M. M. and Michaelis, Allison C. C.}, year={2022}, month={Nov} }
 @article{stuart_hartfield_schultz_wilson_west_hoffman_lackmann_brooks_roebber_bals-elsholz_et al._2022, title={The Evolving Role of Humans in Weather Prediction and Communication}, volume={103}, ISSN={["1520-0477"]}, DOI={10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0326.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={8}, journal={BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY}, author={Stuart, Neil A. and Hartfield, Gail and Schultz, David M. and Wilson, Katie and West, Gregory and Hoffman, Robert and Lackmann, Gary and Brooks, Harold and Roebber, Paul and Bals-Elsholz, Teresa and et al.}, year={2022}, month={Aug}, pages={E1720–E1746} }
 @article{lackmann_miller_robinson_michaelis_2021, title={Persistent Anomaly Changes in High-Resolution Climate Simulations}, volume={34}, ISSN={["1520-0442"]}, url={http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-85106939084&partnerID=MN8TOARS}, DOI={10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0465.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={13}, journal={JOURNAL OF CLIMATE}, author={Lackmann, Gary M. and Miller, Rebecca L. and Robinson, Walter A. and Michaelis, Allison C.}, year={2021}, month={Jul}, pages={5425–5442} }
 @article{michaelis_lackmann_2021, title={Storm-Scale Dynamical Changes of Extratropical Transition Events in Present-Day and Future High-Resolution Global Simulations}, volume={34}, ISSN={["1520-0442"]}, DOI={10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0472.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={12}, journal={JOURNAL OF CLIMATE}, author={Michaelis, Allison C. and Lackmann, Gary M.}, year={2021}, month={Jun}, pages={5037–5062} }
 @article{green_leins_lackmann_morrow_blaes_2021, title={The National Weather Service-North Carolina State University Internship Course Impacts and Success over a Generation}, volume={102}, ISSN={["1520-0477"]}, DOI={10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0260.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={11}, journal={BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY}, author={Green, Thomas A., Jr. and Leins, Daniel and Lackmann, Gary M. and Morrow, James and Blaes, Jonathan}, year={2021}, month={Nov}, pages={E2079–E2085} }
 @article{jung_lackmann_2021, title={The Response of Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones to Climate Change: Quasi-Idealized Numerical Experiments}, volume={34}, ISSN={["1520-0442"]}, DOI={10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0543.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={11}, journal={JOURNAL OF CLIMATE}, author={Jung, Chunyong and Lackmann, Gary M.}, year={2021}, month={Jun}, pages={4361–4381} }
 @article{tierney_robinson_lackmann_miller_2021, title={The Sensitivity of Persistent Geopotential Anomalies to the Climate of a Moist Channel Model}, volume={34}, ISSN={["1520-0442"]}, url={http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-85106894701&partnerID=MN8TOARS}, DOI={10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0254.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={12}, journal={JOURNAL OF CLIMATE}, author={Tierney, Gregory and Robinson, Walter A. and Lackmann, Gary and Miller, Rebecca}, year={2021}, month={Jun}, pages={5093–5108} }
 @article{miller_lackmann_robinson_2020, title={A New Variable-Threshold Persistent Anomaly Index: Northern Hemisphere Anomalies in the ERA-Interim Reanalysis}, volume={148}, ISSN={["1520-0493"]}, url={http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-85082885384&partnerID=MN8TOARS}, DOI={10.1175/MWR-D-19-0144.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={1}, journal={MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW}, author={Miller, Rebecca L. and Lackmann, Gary M. and Robinson, Walter A.}, year={2020}, month={Jan}, pages={43–62} }
 @article{radford_lackmann_baxter_2019, title={An Evaluation of Snowband Predictability in the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh}, volume={34}, ISSN={["1520-0434"]}, DOI={10.1175/WAF-D-19-0089.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={5}, journal={WEATHER AND FORECASTING}, author={Radford, Jacob T. and Lackmann, Gary M. and Baxter, Martin A.}, year={2019}, month={Oct}, pages={1477–1494} }
 @article{michaelis_lackmann_2019, title={Climatological Changes in the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones in High-Resolution Global Simulations}, volume={32}, ISSN={["1520-0442"]}, DOI={10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0259.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={24}, journal={JOURNAL OF CLIMATE}, author={Michaelis, Allison C. and Lackmann, Gary M.}, year={2019}, month={Dec}, pages={8733–8753} }
 @article{evaluation of a unique approach to high-resolution climate modelling using the model for prediction across scales (mpas) version 5.1_2019, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-34}, DOI={10.5194/gmd-2019-34}, abstractNote={Abstract. We present multi-seasonal simulations representative of present-day and future thermodynamic environments using the global Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere (MPAS) version 5.1 with high resolution (15 km) throughout the Northern Hemisphere. We select ten simulation years with varying phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and integrate each for 14.5 months. We use analysed sea surface temperature (SST) patterns for present-day simulations. For the future climate simulations, we alter present-day SSTs by applying monthly-averaged temperature changes derived from a 20-member ensemble of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs) following the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 emissions scenario. Daily sea ice fields, obtained from the monthly-averaged CMIP5 ensemble mean sea ice, are used for present-day and future simulations. The present-day simulations provide a reasonable reproduction of large-scale atmospheric features in the Northern Hemisphere such as the wintertime midlatitude storm tracks, upper-tropospheric jets, and maritime sea-level pressure features as well as annual precipitation patterns across the tropics. The simulations also adequately represent tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics such as strength, spatial distribution, and seasonal cycles for most of Northern Hemispheric basins. These results demonstrate the applicability of these model simulations for future studies examining climate change effects on various Northern Hemispheric phenomena, and, more generally, the utility of MPAS for studying climate change at spatial scales generally unachievable in GCMs.
                        }, journal={Geoscientific Model Development Discussions}, year={2019}, month={Apr} }
 @article{michaelis_lackmann_robinson_2019, title={Evaluation of a unique approach to high-resolution climate modeling using the Model for Prediction Across Scales - Atmosphere (MPAS-A) version 5.1}, volume={12}, ISSN={["1991-9603"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3725-2019}, DOI={10.5194/gmd-12-3725-2019}, abstractNote={Abstract. We present multi-seasonal simulations representative of
present-day and future environments using the global Model for Prediction
Across Scales – Atmosphere (MPAS-A) version 5.1 with high resolution (15 km)
throughout the Northern Hemisphere. We select 10 simulation years with
varying phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and integrate each
for 14.5 months. We use analyzed sea surface temperature (SST) patterns for
present-day simulations. For the future climate simulations, we alter
present-day SSTs by applying monthly-averaged temperature changes derived
from a 20-member ensemble of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5
(CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs) following the Representative
Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 emissions scenario. Daily sea ice fields,
obtained from the monthly-averaged CMIP5 ensemble mean sea ice, are used for
present-day and future simulations. The present-day simulations provide a
reasonable reproduction of large-scale atmospheric features in the Northern
Hemisphere such as the wintertime midlatitude storm tracks,
upper-tropospheric jets, and maritime sea-level pressure features as well as
annual precipitation patterns across the tropics. The simulations also
adequately represent tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics such as strength,
spatial distribution, and seasonal cycles for most Northern Hemisphere
basins. These results demonstrate the applicability of these model
simulations for future studies examining climate change effects on various
Northern Hemisphere phenomena, and, more generally, the utility of MPAS-A
for studying climate change at spatial scales generally unachievable in
GCMs.
                    }, number={8}, journal={GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT}, publisher={Copernicus GmbH}, author={Michaelis, Allison C. and Lackmann, Gary M. and Robinson, Walter A.}, year={2019}, month={Aug}, pages={3725–3743} }
 @article{jung_lackmann_2019, title={Extratropical Transition of Hurricane Irene (2011) in a Changing Climate}, volume={32}, ISSN={["1520-0442"]}, DOI={10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0558.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={15}, journal={JOURNAL OF CLIMATE}, author={Jung, Chunyong and Lackmann, Gary M.}, year={2019}, month={Aug}, pages={4847–4871} }
 @article{lackmann_thompson_2019, title={Hydrometeor Lofting and Mesoscale Snowbands}, volume={147}, ISSN={["1520-0493"]}, DOI={10.1175/MWR-D-19-0036.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={11}, journal={MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW}, author={Lackmann, Gary M. and Thompson, Gregory}, year={2019}, month={Nov}, pages={3879–3899} }
 @article{wanik_anagnostou_astitha_hartman_lackmann_yang_cerrai_he_frediani_2018, title={A Case Study on Power Outage Impacts from Future Hurricane Sandy Scenarios}, volume={57}, ISSN={["1558-8432"]}, DOI={10.1175/jamc-d-16-0408.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={1}, journal={JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY}, author={Wanik, D. W. and Anagnostou, E. N. and Astitha, M. and Hartman, B. M. and Lackmann, G. M. and Yang, J. and Cerrai, D. and He, J. and Frediani, M. E. B.}, year={2018}, month={Jan}, pages={51–79} }
 @article{michaelis_willison_lackmann_robinson_2017, title={Changes in Winter North Atlantic Extratropical Cyclones in High-Resolution Regional Pseudo-Global Warming Simulations}, volume={30}, ISSN={["1520-0442"]}, url={http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-85027249354&partnerID=MN8TOARS}, DOI={10.1175/jcli-d-16-0697.1}, abstractNote={ The present study investigates changes in the location, frequency, intensity, and dynamical processes of North Atlantic extratropical cyclones with warming consistent with the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. The modeling, analysis, and prediction (MAP) climatology of midlatitude storminess (MCMS) feature-tracking algorithm was utilized to analyze 10 cold-season high-resolution atmospheric simulations over the North Atlantic region in current and future climates. Enhanced extratropical cyclone activity is most evident in the northeast North Atlantic and off the U.S. East Coast. These changes in cyclone activity are offset from changes in eddy kinetic energy and eddy heat flux. Investigation of the minimum SLP reached at each grid point reveals a lack of correspondence between the strongest events in the current and future simulations, indicating the future simulations produced a different population of storms. Examination of the percent change of storms in the storm-track region shows a reduction in the number of strong storms (i.e., those reaching a minimum SLP perturbation of at least −51 hPa). Storm-relative composites of strong and moderate storms show an increase in precipitation, associated with enhanced latent heat release and strengthening of the 900–700-hPa layer-average potential vorticity (PV). Other structural changes found for cyclones in a future climate include weakened upper-level PV for strong storms and a weakened near-surface potential temperature anomaly for moderate storms, demonstrating a change in storm dynamics. Furthermore, the impacts associated with extratropical cyclones, such as strong near-surface winds and heavy precipitation, strengthen and become more frequent with warming. }, number={17}, journal={JOURNAL OF CLIMATE}, author={Michaelis, Allison C. and Willison, Jeff and Lackmann, Gary M. and Robinson, Walter A.}, year={2017}, month={Sep}, pages={6905–6925} }
 @article{king_parker_sherburn_lackmann_2017, title={Rapid Evolution of Cool Season, Low-CAPE Severe Thunderstorm Environments}, volume={32}, ISSN={["1520-0434"]}, DOI={10.1175/waf-d-16-0141.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={2}, journal={WEATHER AND FORECASTING}, author={King, Jessica R. and Parker, Matthew D. and Sherburn, Keith D. and Lackmann, Gary M.}, year={2017}, month={Apr}, pages={763–779} }
 @article{sherburn_parker_king_lackmann_2016, title={Composite Environments of Severe and Nonsevere High-Shear, Low-CAPE Convective Events}, volume={31}, ISSN={["1520-0434"]}, DOI={10.1175/waf-d-16-0086.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={6}, journal={WEATHER AND FORECASTING}, author={Sherburn, Keith D. and Parker, Matthew D. and King, Jessica R. and Lackmann, Gary M.}, year={2016}, month={Dec}, pages={1899–1927} }
 @article{marciano_lackmann_robinson_2015, title={Changes in US East Coast Cyclone Dynamics with Climate Change}, volume={28}, ISSN={["1520-0442"]}, url={http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-84921677491&partnerID=MN8TOARS}, DOI={10.1175/jcli-d-14-00418.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={2}, journal={JOURNAL OF CLIMATE}, author={Marciano, Christopher G. and Lackmann, Gary M. and Robinson, Walter A.}, year={2015}, month={Jan}, pages={468–484} }
 @article{lackmann_2015, title={Hurricane Sandy before 1900 and after 2100}, volume={96}, ISSN={["1520-0477"]}, DOI={10.1175/bams-d-14-00123.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={4}, journal={BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY}, author={Lackmann, Gary M.}, year={2015}, month={Apr}, pages={547–560} }
 @article{willison_robinson_lackmann_2015, title={North Atlantic Storm-Track Sensitivity to Warming Increases with Model Resolution}, volume={28}, ISSN={["1520-0442"]}, url={http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-84977575720&partnerID=MN8TOARS}, DOI={10.1175/jcli-d-14-00715.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={11}, journal={JOURNAL OF CLIMATE}, author={Willison, Jeff and Robinson, Walter A. and Lackmann, Gary M.}, year={2015}, month={Jun}, pages={4513–4524} }
 @article{baxter_lackmann_mahoney_workoff_hamill_2014, title={Verification of Quantitative Precipitation Reforecasts over the Southeastern United States}, volume={29}, ISSN={["1520-0434"]}, DOI={10.1175/waf-d-14-00055.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={5}, journal={WEATHER AND FORECASTING}, author={Baxter, Martin A. and Lackmann, Gary M. and Mahoney, Kelly M. and Workoff, Thomas E. and Hamill, Thomas M.}, year={2014}, month={Oct}, pages={1199–1207} }
 @article{mallard_lackmann_aiyyer_hill_2013, title={Atlantic Hurricanes and Climate Change. Part I: Experimental Design and Isolation of Thermodynamic Effects}, volume={26}, ISSN={["1520-0442"]}, DOI={10.1175/jcli-d-12-00182.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={13}, journal={JOURNAL OF CLIMATE}, author={Mallard, Megan S. and Lackmann, Gary M. and Aiyyer, Anantha and Hill, Kevin}, year={2013}, month={Jul}, pages={4876–4893} }
 @article{mallard_lackmann_aiyyer_2013, title={Atlantic Hurricanes and Climate Change. Part II: Role of Thermodynamic Changes in Decreased Hurricane Frequency}, volume={26}, ISSN={["1520-0442"]}, DOI={10.1175/jcli-d-12-00183.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={21}, journal={JOURNAL OF CLIMATE}, author={Mallard, Megan S. and Lackmann, Gary M. and Aiyyer, Anantha}, year={2013}, month={Nov}, pages={8513–8528} }
 @article{tang_xie_lackmann_liu_2013, title={Modeling the Impacts of the Large-Scale Atmospheric Environment on Inland Flooding during the Landfall of Hurricane Floyd (1999)}, volume={2013}, ISSN={["1687-9317"]}, DOI={10.1155/2013/294956}, abstractNote={The contribution of the large-scale atmospheric environment to precipitation and flooding during Hurricane Floyd was investigated in this study. Through the vortex removal technique in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, the vortex associated with Hurricane Floyd (1999) was mostly removed in the model initial conditions and subsequent integration. Results show that the environment-induced precipitation can account for as much as 22% of total precipitation in the innermost model domain covering North Carolina coastal area and 7% in the focused hydrological study area. The high-resolution precipitation data from the WRF model was then used for input in a hydrological model to simulate river runoff. Hydrological simulation results demonstrate that without the tropical systems and their interactions with the large-scale synoptic environment the synoptic environment would only contribute 10% to the total discharge at the Tarboro gauge station. This suggests that Hurricane Floyd and Hurricane Dennis preceding it, along with the interactions between these tropical systems and the large-scale environment, have contributed to the bulk (90%) of the record amount of flood water in the Tar-Pamlico River Basin.}, journal={ADVANCES IN METEOROLOGY}, author={Tang, Qianhong and Xie, Lian and Lackmann, Gary M. and Liu, Bin}, year={2013} }
 @article{michaelis_lackmann_2013, title={Numerical modeling of a historic storm: Simulating the Blizzard of 1888}, volume={40}, ISSN={["1944-8007"]}, DOI={10.1002/grl.50750}, abstractNote={The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) is used to explore the feasibility of high‐resolution simulation of a historic extratropical cyclone event: The New England Blizzard of 1888. Using the 20CR as initial and lateral boundary conditions for the Weather Research and Forecasting model, a reasonable depiction of the cyclone is obtained, albeit displaced significantly to the north of the observed cyclone during the later stages of the event. Despite the position error, the simulated storm produces heavy snowfall over parts of New England and intense offshore cyclogenesis.}, number={15}, journal={GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS}, author={Michaelis, Allison C. and Lackmann, Gary M.}, year={2013}, month={Aug}, pages={4092–4097} }
 @article{willison_robinson_lackmann_2013, title={The Importance of Resolving Mesoscale Latent Heating in the North Atlantic Storm Track}, volume={70}, ISSN={["1520-0469"]}, url={http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=ORCID&SrcApp=OrcidOrg&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=WOS:000322125600022&KeyUID=WOS:000322125600022}, DOI={10.1175/jas-d-12-0226.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={7}, journal={JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES}, author={Willison, Jeff and Robinson, Walter A. and Lackmann, Gary M.}, year={2013}, month={Jul}, pages={2234–2250} }
 @article{lackmann_2013, title={The South-Central US Flood of May 2010: Present and Future}, volume={26}, ISSN={["1520-0442"]}, DOI={10.1175/jcli-d-12-00392.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={13}, journal={JOURNAL OF CLIMATE}, author={Lackmann, Gary M.}, year={2013}, month={Jul}, pages={4688–4709} }
 @article{hill_lackmann_2011, title={The Impact of Future Climate Change on TC Intensity and Structure: A Downscaling Approach}, volume={24}, ISSN={["1520-0442"]}, DOI={10.1175/2011jcli3761.1}, abstractNote={ A comprehensive analysis of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change in a warming climate is undertaken with high-resolution (6- and 2-km grid spacing) idealized simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. With the goal of isolating the influence of thermodynamic aspects of climate change on maximum hurricane intensity, an idealized TC is placed within a quiescent, horizontally uniform tropical environment computed from averaged reanalysis data for the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The analyzed tropical environment is used for control simulations. Changes between the periods 1990–99 and 2090–99 are computed using output from 13 GCMs from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), for the A1B, A2, and B1 emissions scenarios. These changes are then added to the reanalysis-derived initial and boundary conditions used in the control simulations. Some processes known to impact TC intensity, such as environmental vertical wind shear and sea surface wake cooling, are not considered in this study. Future TC intensity increased for 75 of 78 future simulations using 6-km grid length, with a 9% (~8 hPa) average increase in central surface-pressure deficit. For the 2-km simulations, the average increase was 14% (~14 hPa). The depth of the TC secondary circulation increases in future simulations, consistent with an increase in the height of the freezing level and tropopause. Inner-core precipitation increases of 10%–30% are found for future simulations, with large sensitivity to the emission scenario. The increase in precipitation is consistent with a stronger potential vorticity tower, a warmer eye, and lower central pressure. Enhanced upper-tropospheric warming in the GCM environment is shown to be an important mitigating influence on TC intensity change but is also shown to exhibit large uncertainty in GCM projections. }, number={17}, journal={JOURNAL OF CLIMATE}, author={Hill, Kevin A. and Lackmann, Gary M.}, year={2011}, month={Sep}, pages={4644–4661} }
 @article{mahoney_lackmann_2011, title={The Sensitivity of Momentum Transport and Severe Surface Winds to Environmental Moisture in Idealized Simulations of a Mesoscale Convective System}, volume={139}, ISSN={["1520-0493"]}, DOI={10.1175/2010mwr3468.1}, abstractNote={ Analysis of a pair of three-dimensional simulations of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) reveals a significant sensitivity of convective momentum transport (CMT), MCS motion, and the generation of severe surface winds to ambient moisture. The Weather Research and Forecasting model is used to simulate an idealized MCS, which is compared with an MCS in a drier midlevel environment. The MCS in the drier environment is smaller, moves slightly faster, and exhibits increased descent and more strongly focused areas of enhanced CMT near the surface in the trailing stratiform region relative to that in the control simulation. }, number={5}, journal={MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW}, author={Mahoney, Kelly M. and Lackmann, Gary M.}, year={2011}, month={May}, pages={1352–1369} }
 @article{etherton_arms_oolman_lackmann_ramamurthy_2011, title={USING OPERATIONAL AND EXPERIMENTAL OBSERVATIONS IN GEOSCIENCE EDUCATION}, volume={92}, ISSN={["0003-0007"]}, DOI={10.1175/2010bams3045.1}, abstractNote={No Abstract available.}, number={4}, journal={BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY}, author={Etherton, Brian J. and Arms, Sean C. and Oolman, Larry D. and Lackmann, Gary M. and Ramamurthy, Mohan K.}, year={2011}, month={Apr}, pages={477–480} }
 @article{gentry_lackmann_2010, title={Sensitivity of Simulated Tropical Cyclone Structure and Intensity to Horizontal Resolution}, volume={138}, ISSN={["1520-0493"]}, DOI={10.1175/2009mwr2976.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={3}, journal={MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW}, author={Gentry, Megan S. and Lackmann, Gary M.}, year={2010}, month={Mar}, pages={688–704} }
 @article{keighton_lee_holloway_hotz_zubrick_hovis_votaw_perry_lackmann_yuter_et al._2009, title={A COLLABORATIVE APPROACH TO STUDY NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS}, volume={90}, ISSN={["0003-0007"]}, DOI={10.1175/2009BAMS2591.1}, abstractNote={Abstract Upslope-enhanced snowfall events during periods of northwesterly flow in the southern Appalachians have been recognized as a significant winter forecasting problem for some time. However, only in recent years has this problem received noteworthy attention by both the academic and operational communities. The complex meteorology of these events includes significant topographic influences, as well as a linkage between the upstream Great Lakes and resultant southern Appalachian snowfall. A unique collaborative team has recently formed, working toward the goals of improving the physical understanding of the mechanisms at work in these events and developing more accurate forecasts and more detailed climatologies. The literature shows only limited attention to this problem through the 1990s. However, with modernization of the National Weather Service (NWS) in the mid-1990s came opportunities to bring more attention to new or poorly understood forecast problems. These opportunities included the establis...}, number={7}, journal={BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY}, author={Keighton, Steve and Lee, Laurence and Holloway, Blair and Hotz, David and Zubrick, Steven and Hovis, Jeffrey and Votaw, Gary and Perry, L. Baker and Lackmann, Gary and Yuter, Sandra E. and et al.}, year={2009}, month={Jul}, pages={979–991} }
 @article{hill_lackmann_2009, title={Analysis of Idealized Tropical Cyclone Simulations Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model: Sensitivity to Turbulence Parameterization and Grid Spacing}, volume={137}, ISSN={["1520-0493"]}, DOI={10.1175/2008MWR2220.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={2}, journal={MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW}, author={Hill, Kevin A. and Lackmann, Gary M.}, year={2009}, month={Feb}, pages={745–765} }
 @article{hill_lackmann_2009, title={Influence of Environmental Humidity on Tropical Cyclone Size}, volume={137}, ISSN={["1520-0493"]}, DOI={10.1175/2009MWR2679.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={10}, journal={MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW}, author={Hill, Kevin A. and Lackmann, Gary M.}, year={2009}, month={Oct}, pages={3294–3315} }
 @article{mahoney_lackmann_parker_2009, title={The Role of Momentum Transport in the Motion of a Quasi-Idealized Mesoscale Convective System}, volume={137}, ISSN={["1520-0493"]}, DOI={10.1175/2009MWR2895.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={10}, journal={MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW}, author={Mahoney, Kelly M. and Lackmann, Gary M. and Parker, Matthew D.}, year={2009}, month={Oct}, pages={3316–3338} }
 @article{brennan_lackmann_mahoney_2008, title={Potential vorticity (PV) thinking in operations: The utility of nonconservation}, volume={23}, ISSN={["0882-8156"]}, DOI={10.1175/2007WAF2006044.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={1}, journal={WEATHER AND FORECASTING}, author={Brennan, Michael J. and Lackmann, Gary M. and Mahoney, Kelly M.}, year={2008}, month={Feb}, pages={168–182} }
 @article{jacobs_raman_lackmann_childs_2008, title={The influence of the Gulf Stream induced SST gradients on the US East Coast winter storm of 24-25 January 2000}, volume={29}, ISSN={["0143-1161"]}, DOI={10.1080/01431160802175561}, abstractNote={This study presents an investigation of the influence of remotely sensed high resolution sea surface temperature (SST) and the SST gradient on the formation and evolution of the 24–25 January 2000 East Coast winter storm. A numerical model was employed for experimental simulation replaced SST analysis with a 1.1 km gridded data set. The most significant improvements were seen in the forecast deepening rate and track. Reduced development of the storm in the control simulation, as compared to the experimental simulation, appears to be due to the coarse grid SST representation, which fails to capture key thermal gradient features of the Gulf Stream. The simulations suggest that the high resolution remotely sensed SST data affect the track by changing the location of lower‐tropospheric frontal boundaries through thermally‐induced near‐surface convergence and differential turbulent heat flux. Enhanced vortex stretching associated with the convergence along the lower frontal boundary appears to contribute to a stronger storm in the experimental simulations.}, number={21}, journal={INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF REMOTE SENSING}, author={Jacobs, N. A. and Raman, S. and Lackmann, G. M. and Childs, P. P., Jr.}, year={2008}, pages={6145–6174} }
 @article{orf_lackmann_herbster_krueger_cutrim_whitaker_steenburgh_voss_2007, title={Models as educational tools}, volume={88}, ISSN={["0003-0007"]}, DOI={10.1175/bams-88-7-1101}, number={7}, journal={BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY}, author={Orf, Leigh and Lackmann, Gary and Herbster, Chris and Krueger, Anton and Cutrim, Elen and Whitaker, Tom and Steenburgh, Jim and Voss, Michael}, year={2007}, month={Jul}, pages={1101–1104} }
 @article{mahoney_lackmann_2007, title={The effect of upstream convection on downstream precipitation}, volume={22}, ISSN={["1520-0434"]}, DOI={10.1175/WAF986.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={2}, journal={WEATHER AND FORECASTING}, author={Mahoney, Kelly M. and Lackmann, Gary M.}, year={2007}, month={Apr}, pages={255–277} }
 @article{palmieri_tredway_niyogi_lackmann_2006, title={Development and evaluation of a forecasting system for fungal disease in turfgrass}, volume={13}, ISSN={["1469-8080"]}, DOI={10.1017/S1350482706002428}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={4}, journal={METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS}, author={Palmieri, Richard and Tredway, Lane and Niyogi, Dev and Lackmann, Gary M.}, year={2006}, month={Dec}, pages={405–416} }
 @article{brennan_lackmann_2006, title={Observational diagnosis and model forecast evaluation of unforecasted incipient precipitation during the 24-25 January 2000 East Coast cyclone}, volume={134}, ISSN={["1520-0493"]}, DOI={10.1175/MWR3184.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={8}, journal={MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW}, author={Brennan, Michael J. and Lackmann, Gary M.}, year={2006}, month={Aug}, pages={2033–2054} }
 @article{stuart_market_tielfeyan_lackmann_carey_brooks_nietfeld_motta_reeves_2006, title={The future of humans in an increasingly automated forecast process}, volume={87}, ISSN={["1520-0477"]}, DOI={10.1175/BAMS-87-11-1497}, abstractNote={ur role as humans in the forecast process has been a very sensitive and highly debated issue within the meteorological profession since the advent of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models in the 1960s. NWP model guidance contin-ues to improve to such a degree that forecasters are discovering their ability to add value to NWP model forecasts is outpaced (Brooks et al. 1996). This has resulted in an increas-ing reliance on NWP model guidance, an issue first described by Snellman (1977). Since that time, new roles for forecasters have been contemplated in an effort to determine the optimum role for humans in the fore-cast process in order to produce the best fore-cast products possible for all users of weather forecast information. This article represents results from a collab-orative effort of the forecast community to iden-tify the ways in which these roles might continue to change in the future.Reliance on NWP model guidance to initialize a gridded forecast database has become particularly evident in the National Weather Service (NWS) since the late 1990s. Since then, forecasting has shifted from the manual production of text-based forecasts to the}, number={11}, journal={BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY}, author={Stuart, Neil A. and Market, Partick S. and Tielfeyan, Bruce and Lackmann, Gary M. and Carey, Kenneth and Brooks, Harold E. and Nietfeld, Daniel and Motta, Brian C. and Reeves, Ken}, year={2006}, month={Nov}, pages={1497–1502} }
 @article{mahoney_lackmann_2006, title={The sensitivity of numerical forecasts to convective parameterization: A case study of the 17 February 2004 east coast cyclone}, volume={21}, ISSN={["1520-0434"]}, DOI={10.1175/WAF937.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={4}, journal={WEATHER AND FORECASTING}, author={Mahoney, Kelly M. and Lackmann, Gary M.}, year={2006}, month={Aug}, pages={465–488} }
 @article{brennan_keeter_riordan_lackmann_2005, title={Expandng horizons wth an NWS internship course}, volume={86}, ISSN={["1520-0477"]}, DOI={10.1175/BAMS-86-10-1407}, abstractNote={M eteorology students at North Carolina State University (NCSU) participated in an experimental internship course during the spring of 2004 that allowed them to gain an operational perspective on meteorology by experiencing the everyday duties of the staff at the collocated National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offi ce (WFO) in Raleigh. Th e course was designed to meet several goals, which included allowing students to contribute to operational forecasting, gain profi ciency with routine NWS duties and soft ware tools, and sample the broad array of work performed by the NWS. Students also were exposed to operational meteorology and NWS careers and received assistance in pursuing such a career. During the semester, fi ve senior undergraduate and fi ve graduate students enrolled in the course. Th ey attended NWS training sessions, “shadowed” NWS staff , performed routine NWS duties, and assisted NWS staff during high-impact weather events. Overall, the students and NWS staff were decidedly positive about the course, which was again off ered during the spring of 2005. As the fi eld of atmospheric science continues to advance and diversify, courses of this type can play an increasingly vital role in education and professional development. In describing the new course, we hope to encourage others who may be contemplating a similar program, especially since many WFOs are located on college campuses, an arrangement that makes this type of experience feasible. Th e internship course was a natural extension of the 17 consecutive years of NOAA-funded collaboration between NCSU and the Raleigh WFO, which moved to the NCSU campus in 1994. Th e course was designed for students interested in an NWS career. Th e hands-on experience should help students decide whether an NWS career is something they might wish to pursue. Secondly, the course provided experience that will be invaluable when they apply for an entry-level NWS position. Students were selected for the course by the evaluation of a written statement of interest by NWS personnel and an interview with the NWS science operations offi cer and other NWS staff . Th e course required students to work at least 16 hours alongside NWS personnel performing routine shift duties and to maintain a journal documenting their experiences. Students initially observed NWS personnel during their shift s and gained experience with manual analysis of surface and upper-air maps, composing the state weather summary, and gathering and disseminating climate and hydrological data. With time, students became independently profi cient with these duties. In addition, the students traveled to NWS equipment sites and attended special sessions for hands-on experience with the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS), seasonal familiarization with severe and winter weather forecast problems, offi ce safety, and applying for NWS jobs.}, number={10}, journal={BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY}, author={Brennan, MJ and Keeter, K and Riordan, AJ and Lackmann, GM}, year={2005}, month={Oct}, pages={1407–1409} }
 @article{fuentes_chen_davis_lackmann_2005, title={Modeling and predicting complex space-time structures and patterns of coastal wind fields}, volume={16}, ISSN={["1099-095X"]}, DOI={10.1002/env.714}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={5}, journal={ENVIRONMETRICS}, author={Fuentes, M and Chen, L and Davis, JM and Lackmann, GM}, year={2005}, month={Aug}, pages={449–464} }
 @article{jacobs_lackmann_raman_2005, title={The combined effects of Gulf Stream-induced baroclinicity and upper-level vorticity on US east coast extratropical cyclogenesis}, volume={133}, ISSN={["1520-0493"]}, DOI={10.1175/MWR2969.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={8}, journal={MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW}, author={Jacobs, NA and Lackmann, GM and Raman, S}, year={2005}, month={Aug}, pages={2494–2501} }
 @article{brennan_lackmann_2005, title={The influence of incipient latent heat release on the precipitation distribution of the 24-25 January 2000 US East Coast cyclone}, volume={133}, ISSN={["0027-0644"]}, DOI={10.1175/MWR2959.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={7}, journal={MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW}, author={Brennan, MJ and Lackmann, GM}, year={2005}, month={Jul}, pages={1913–1937} }
 @article{reeves_lackmann_2004, title={An investigation of the influence of latent heat release on cold-frontal motion}, volume={132}, ISSN={["1520-0493"]}, DOI={10.1175/MWR2827.1}, abstractNote={Abstract The effects of condensational heating on cold-frontal translation speed are explored through the use of potential vorticity (PV) diagnostics and model sensitivity experiments. It is hypothesized that condensational heating can lead to faster frontal translation speeds in the presence of vertical shear because of the horizontal propagation of the positive PV anomaly associated with the front. A case study of a cold front with an evolving precipitation structure is presented. A positive correlation existed between the position of condensational heating relative to the frontal zone and frontal translation speed, with faster frontal movement occurring when condensational heating was present in the prefrontal zone. This front was numerically simulated to see if the hypothesized mechanism for frontal movement was active. Through the use of a PV budget, it was confirmed that condensational heating did contribute to the forward propagation of the cold-frontal PV band. Numerical experiments were performed...}, number={12}, journal={MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW}, author={Reeves, HD and Lackmann, GM}, year={2004}, month={Dec}, pages={2864–2881} }
 @article{brennan_lackmann_koch_2004, title={The impact of a split-front rainband on Appalachian cold-air damming erosion}, volume={85}, ISSN={["1520-0477"]}, DOI={10.1175/BAMS-85-7-935}, abstractNote={AFFILIATIONS: BRENNAN AND LACKMANN—Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina; KOCH—NOAA/Forecast Systems Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Michael J. Brennan, Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, 1125 Jordan Hall, Box 8208, Raleigh, NC 27695-8208 E-mail: mike_brennan@ncsu.edu}, number={7}, journal={BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY}, author={Brennan, MJ and Lackmann, GM and Koch, SE}, year={2004}, month={Jul}, pages={935–939} }
 @article{lackmann_yablonsky_2004, title={The importance of the precipitation mass sink in tropical cyclones and other heavily precipitating systems}, volume={61}, ISSN={["1520-0469"]}, DOI={10.1175/1520-0469(2004)061<1674:TIOTPM>2.0.CO;2}, abstractNote={When water vapor is converted to cloud and precipitation and subsequently removed to the surface via precipitation, there is a corresponding hydrostatic pressure decrease due to the reduction of mass in the overlying column. Pressure changes resulting from the addition or removal of water vapor are currently neglected in most meteorological applications. However, in heavily precipitating systems such as tropical cyclones, where precipitation rates may exceed 250 mm day21, the pressure equivalent of the precipitation mass sink is not negligible (;25 hPa day21). Pressure decreases due to this mechanism are most pronounced in the lower troposphere, particularly below the melting level. The resulting unbalanced pressure-gradient force can enhance convergence, which precludes full realization of the pressure decrease but may contribute to vorticity generation and moisture convergence. The importance of the precipitation mass sink is investigated for the case of Hurricane Lili (2002) through the computation of mass and potential vorticity (PV) budgets and numerical sensitivity experiments. The precipitation mass reaching the surface within 100 km of the storm center is of the same order as the mass loss needed to explain the area-averaged pressure decrease during the intensification stage of Lili. The PV is altered by precipitation mass flux divergence across isentropic layers. A volume-integrated PV budget reveals that the mass sink term is small in comparison to the latent heating term, although the latter exhibits large cancellation. Comparison of a control simulation from the Eta Model to an experimental simulation in which the precipitation mass sink effect is included demonstrates that the mass sink mechanism contributes to lower pressure, stronger wind speeds, and heavier precipitation. The sea level pressure near the storm center in the mass sink simulation is generally 2‐5 hPa deeper relative to the control simulation, with 10-m wind speed differences of 5 to 15 kt. The mass sink simulation exhibits a stronger cyclonic PV tower, especially above the melting level, and a stronger troposphere‐deep cyclonic circulation relative to the control simulation. The analysis presented indicates that the precipitation mass sink mechanism, though not dominant, is not negligible for tropical cyclones.}, number={14}, journal={JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES}, author={Lackmann, GM and Yablonsky, RM}, year={2004}, month={Jul}, pages={1674–1692} }
 @article{brennan_lackmann_koch_2003, title={An analysis of the impact of a split-front rainband on Appalachian cold-air damming}, volume={18}, ISSN={["1520-0434"]}, DOI={10.1175/1520-0434(2003)018<0712:AAOTIO>2.0.CO;2}, abstractNote={Abstract Appalachian cold-air damming (CAD) is characterized by the development of a cool, stable air mass that is advected southwestward along the eastern slopes of the Appalachian Mountains by low-level ageostrophic flow. Operational forecasters have identified the demise of CAD as a major forecasting challenge, in part because numerical weather prediction models have a tendency to erode the cold air too quickly. Previous studies have considered the role of clouds and precipitation in the initiation and maintenance of CAD; generally, precipitation is thought to reinforce CAD due to the cooling and stabilization resulting from evaporation. Here, the impact of precipitation on CAD during a situation where the lower-tropospheric air mass was near saturation prior to the arrival of precipitation is considered. Previous studies have indicated that the passage of a cold front can bring about CAD demise, as the synoptic-scale flow becomes northwesterly behind the front and low-level stable air is scoured. Addi...}, number={5}, journal={WEATHER AND FORECASTING}, author={Brennan, MJ and Lackmann, GM and Koch, SE}, year={2003}, month={Oct}, pages={712–731} }
 @article{bailey_hartfield_lackmann_keeter_sharp_2003, title={An objective climatology, classification scheme, and assessment of sensible weather impacts for Appalachian cold-air damming}, volume={18}, ISSN={["0882-8156"]}, DOI={10.1175/1520-0434(2003)018<0641:AOCCSA>2.0.CO;2}, abstractNote={Abstract The geostrophic adjustment process for a rotating, stratified atmosphere in the presence of an orographic barrier may be manifest as a phenomenon known as “cold-air damming” (CAD). The degree of blocking by an orographic barrier, and therefore CAD intensity, is related to the static stability of the upstream air mass. When precipitation falls into dry near-surface air, differential evaporational cooling can increase static stability, and strengthen or initiate CAD. The sheltering effect of clouds can also maintain surface-based stability. Therefore, the ability of numerical forecast models to accurately predict CAD requires adequate representation of cloud and precipitation processes. Operational forecasters in the Appalachian damming region have previously developed a subjective classification scheme that distinguishes those CAD events that are heavily influenced by diabatic processes from those that are dominated by synoptic-scale forcing. In this study the subjective scheme is formalized in or...}, number={4}, journal={WEATHER AND FORECASTING}, author={Bailey, CM and Hartfield, G and Lackmann, GM and Keeter, K and Sharp, S}, year={2003}, month={Aug}, pages={641–661} }
 @article{lackmann_2002, title={Cold-frontal potential vorticity maxima, the low-level jet, and moisture transport in extratropical cyclones}, volume={130}, ISSN={["0027-0644"]}, DOI={10.1175/1520-0493(2002)130<0059:CFPVMT>2.0.CO;2}, abstractNote={Abstract An elongated cold-frontal maximum in the lower-tropospheric potential vorticity (PV) field accompanies some midlatitude cyclones. These PV maxima are often of diabatic origin, and are hypothesized to contribute substantially to the strength of the low-level jet (LLJ) and moisture transport in the cyclone warm sector. Diagnosis of a representative cyclone event from the central United States during February 1997 is presented with the goals of (i) elucidating the mechanisms of development and propagation of the cold-frontal PV band, and (ii) clarifying the relation between this PV maximum and the LLJ. A confluent upper trough and modest surface cyclone followed a track from the south-central United States northeastward into southern Ontario between 26 and 28 February 1997, accompanied by flooding and widespread straight-line wind damage. A LLJ, with maximum wind speeds in excess of 35 m s−1, was positioned at the western extremity of the cyclone warm sector, immediately east of an elongated PV maxi...}, number={1}, journal={MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW}, author={Lackmann, GM}, year={2002}, pages={59–74} }
 @article{lackmann_keeter_lee_ek_2002, title={Model representation of freezing and melting precipitation: Implications for winter weather forecasting}, volume={17}, ISSN={["0882-8156"]}, DOI={10.1175/1520-0434(2003)017<1016:MROFAM>2.0.CO;2}, abstractNote={Abstract During episodes of sustained moderate or heavy precipitation in conjunction with near-freezing temperatures and weak horizontal temperature advection, the latent heat released (absorbed) by the freezing (melting) of falling precipitation may alter thermal profiles sufficiently to affect the type and amount of freezing or frozen precipitation observed at the surface. Representation of these processes by operational numerical weather prediction models is incomplete; forecaster knowledge of these model limitations can therefore be advantageous during winter weather forecasting. The Eta Model employs a sophisticated land surface model (LSM) to represent physical processes at the lower-atmospheric interface. When considering the thermodynamic effect of melting or freezing precipitation at the surface, it is shown that limitations in the current version of the Eta LSM can contribute to biases in lower-tropospheric temperature forecasts. The Eta LSM determines the precipitation type reaching the surface...}, number={5}, journal={WEATHER AND FORECASTING}, author={Lackmann, GM and Keeter, K and Lee, LG and Ek, MB}, year={2002}, month={Oct}, pages={1016–1033} }
 @article{lackmann_ek_keeter_2002, title={NWP biases in freezing rain forecasts}, volume={83}, number={9}, journal={Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society}, author={Lackmann, G. M. and Ek, M. B. and Keeter, K.}, year={2002}, pages={1274–1275} }
 @article{lackmann_2001, title={Analysis of a surprise western New York snowstorm}, volume={16}, ISSN={["0882-8156"]}, DOI={10.1175/1520-0434(2001)016<0099:AOASWN>2.0.CO;2}, abstractNote={Abstract Although Rochester, New York (ROC), is not located in a climatogically favored region for extreme [i.e., ≥30 cm (12 in.) 24 h−1] lake-effect snow (LES), significant [i.e., ≥15 cm (6 in.) 24 h−1] LES can occur there under specific synoptic regimes. The purposes of this study are to document synoptic conditions that are associated with significant LES in ROC and to examine a specific event in which the passage of an upper disturbance combined with a lower-tropospheric trough to produce a surprise western New York snowstorm on 26–27 November 1996. A database of 127 events in which 2-day ROC snowfall exceeded 15 cm (6 in.) was constructed for the years 1963 through 1992, inclusive. Each event was categorized as “LES” or “non-LES” on the basis of air–lake temperature difference, wind direction, and synoptic setting. Of the 127 events, 32 were classified as LES. Composites based on this 32-case sample reveal a mobile upper trough that moves from the western Great Lakes 48 h prior to the snowfall event ...}, number={1}, journal={WEATHER AND FORECASTING}, author={Lackmann, GM}, year={2001}, month={Feb}, pages={99–116} }
 @article{lackmann_keyser_bosart_1999, title={Energetics of an intensifying jet streak during the experiment on rapidly intensifying cyclones over the Atlantic (ERICA)}, volume={127}, ISSN={["0027-0644"]}, DOI={10.1175/1520-0493(1999)127<2777:EOAIJS>2.0.CO;2}, abstractNote={Abstract A characteristic life cycle of upper-tropospheric cyclogenetic precursors involves the development of an elongated region of lower dynamic tropopause that forms in association with an intensifying midtropospheric jet/front. Transverse divergent circulations associated with the jet/front steepen and depress the dynamic tropopause prior to the onset of lower-tropospheric cyclogenesis. A representative event that occurred during the second intensive observation period (IOP 2) of the Experiment on Rapidly Intensifying Cyclones over the Atlantic (ERICA, December 1988–February 1989) is analyzed from the perspective of local energetics. The goals of the analysis are (i) to document the evolution of the three-dimensional eddy kinetic energy (EKE) distribution during this event and (ii) to identify the mechanisms leading to EKE growth in the upper-tropospheric jet streak associated with the precursor disturbance prior to cyclogenesis, as well as in the developing lower-tropospheric cyclone. Computation of...}, number={12}, journal={MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW}, author={Lackmann, GM and Keyser, D and Bosart, LF}, year={1999}, month={Dec}, pages={2777–2795} }
 @article{lackmann_gyakum_1999, title={Heavy cold-season precipitation in the northwestern United States: Synoptic climatology and an analysis of the flood of 17-18 January 1986}, volume={14}, ISSN={["0882-8156"]}, DOI={10.1175/1520-0434(1999)014<0687:hcspit>2.0.co;2}, abstractNote={Abstract Warm, moist southwesterly airflow into the northwestern United States during the cold season can result in rapid snowmelt and flooding. The objectives of this research are to document characteristic synoptic flow patterns accompanying cold-season (November–March) flooding events, and isolate flow anomalies associated with the moisture transport during a representative event. The first objective is accomplished through a 46-case composite spanning the years 1962–88; the second objective is addressed through diagnosis of a flooding event that occurred on 17–18 January 1986. The 46-case composite is constructed for a 6-day period centered at 1200 UTC on the day of heavy precipitation onset (denoted τ0). Composite 500-hPa geopotential height anomaly fields reveal anomalous ridging over the Bering Sea preceding the precipitation event, a negative anomaly over the Gulf of Alaska throughout the composite evolution, and a positive anomaly over the southwestern Unites States and adjacent eastern Pacific O...}, number={5}, journal={WEATHER AND FORECASTING}, author={Lackmann, GM and Gyakum, JR}, year={1999}, month={Oct}, pages={687–700} }