@article{patankar_eshraghi_queiroz_decarolis_2022, title={Using robust optimization to inform US deep decarbonization planning}, volume={42}, ISSN={["2211-4688"]}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2022.100892}, DOI={10.1016/j.esr.2022.100892}, abstractNote={US energy system development consistent with the Paris Agreement will depend in part on future fuel prices and technology costs, which are highly uncertain. Energy system optimization models (ESOMs) represent a critical tool to examine clean energy futures under different assumptions. While many approaches exist to examine future sensitivity and uncertainty in such models, most assume that uncertainty is resolved prior to the model run. Policy makers, however, must take action before uncertainty is resolved. Robust optimization represents a method that explicitly considers future uncertainty within a single model run, yielding a near-term hedging strategy that is robust to uncertainty. This work focuses on extending and applying robust optimization methods to Temoa, an open source ESOM, to derive insights about low carbon pathways in the United States. A robust strategy that explicitly considers future uncertainty has expected savings in total system cost of 12% and an 8% reduction in the standard deviation of expected costs relative to a strategy that ignores uncertainty. The robust technology deployment strategy also entails more diversified technology mixes across the energy sectors modeled.}, journal={ENERGY STRATEGY REVIEWS}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Patankar, Neha and Eshraghi, Hadi and Queiroz, Anderson Rodrigo and DeCarolis, Joseph F.}, year={2022}, month={Jul} }
 @article{brown_siddiqui_avraam_bistline_decarolis_eshraghi_giarola_hansen_johnston_khanal_et al._2021, title={North American energy system responses to natural gas price shocks}, volume={149}, ISSN={["1873-6777"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.enpol.2020.112046}, abstractNote={As of 2020, North American natural gas extraction and use in the electricity sector have both reached all-time highs. The combination of North America's increased reliance on natural gas with a potential disruption to the natural gas market has several energy security implications. Additionally, policymakers interested in economic resiliency will find this study's results useful for informing the implications of the energy sectors' long-term planning and investment decisions. This paper evaluates how both the electricity and natural gas sectors could respond to hypothetical gas price shocks under different system configurations. We impose unforeseen natural gas price shocks under reference and alternative configurations resulting from a renewable generation mandate or variations to renewable capacity costs. Results from several different models are presented for the electricity and natural gas sectors separately for Canada, Mexico, and the United States. Generally, the US becomes more (less) reliant on electricity imports from Canada given a high (low) gas price shock but increases (decreases) exports to Mexico. The renewable mandate is demonstrated to buffer electricity price increases under high price shocks but price reductions under the low price shocks are dampened given less flexibility to take advantage of the low-priced natural gas. The United States is demonstrated to reduce natural gas production and net exports with high natural gas price shocks given a reduction in demand.}, journal={ENERGY POLICY}, author={Brown, Maxwell and Siddiqui, Sauleh and Avraam, Charalampos and Bistline, John and Decarolis, Joseph and Eshraghi, Hadi and Giarola, Sara and Hansen, Matthew and Johnston, Peter and Khanal, Saroj and et al.}, year={2021}, month={Feb} }
 @article{henry_eshraghi_lugovoy_waite_decarolis_farnham_ruggles_peer_wu_queiroz_et al._2021, title={Promoting reproducibility and increased collaboration in electric sector capacity expansion models with community benchmarking and intercomparison efforts}, volume={304}, ISSN={["1872-9118"]}, url={http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-85114748043&partnerID=MN8TOARS}, DOI={10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117745}, abstractNote={Electric sector capacity expansion models are widely used by academic, government, and industry researchers for policy analysis and planning. Many models overlap in their capabilities, spatial and temporal resolutions, and research purposes, but yield diverse results due to both parametric and structural differences. Previous work has attempted to identify some differences among commonly used capacity expansion models but has been unable to disentangle parametric from structural uncertainty. Here, we present a model benchmarking effort using highly simplified scenarios applied to four open-source models of the U.S. electric sector. We eliminate all parametric uncertainty through using a common dataset and leave only structural differences. We demonstrate how a systematic model comparison process allows us to pinpoint specific and important structural differences among our models, including specification of technologies as baseload or load following generation, battery state-of-charge at the beginning and end of a modeled period, application of battery roundtrip efficiency, treatment of discount rates, formulation of model end effects, and digit precision of input parameters. Our results show that such a process can be effective for improving consistency across models and building model confidence, substantiating specific modeling choices, reporting uncertainties, and identifying areas for further research and development. We also introduce an open-source test dataset that the modeling community can use for unit testing and build on for benchmarking exercises of more complex models. A community benchmarking effort can increase collaboration among energy modelers and provide transparency regarding the energy transition and energy challenges, for other stakeholders such as policymakers.}, journal={APPLIED ENERGY}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Henry, Candise L. and Eshraghi, Hadi and Lugovoy, Oleg and Waite, Michael B. and DeCarolis, Joseph F. and Farnham, David J. and Ruggles, Tyler H. and Peer, Rebecca A. M. and Wu, Yuezi and Queiroz, Anderson and et al.}, year={2021}, month={Dec} }
 @article{esraghi_queiroz_sankarasubramanian_decarolis_2021, title={Quantification of climate-induced interannual variability in residential U.S. electricity demand}, volume={236}, ISSN={["1873-6785"]}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2021.121273}, DOI={10.1016/j.energy.2021.121273}, abstractNote={We assess the sensitivity of residential electricity demand in 48 U S. states to seasonal climate variations and structural changes pertaining to state-level household electricity demand. The main objective is to quantify the effects of seasonal climate variability on residential electricity demand variability during the winter and summer seasons. We use state-level monthly demographic, energy, and climate data from 2005 to 2017 in a linear regression model and find that interannual climate variability explains a significant share of seasonal household electricity demand variation: in 42 states, more than 70% and 50% of demand variability in summer and winter, respectively, is driven by climate. Our work suggests the need for new datasets to quantify unexplained variance in the winter and summer electricity demand. Findings from this study are critical to developing seasonal electricity demand forecasts, which can aid power system operation and management, particularly in a future with greater electrification of end-use demands.}, journal={Energy}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Esraghi, H. and Queiroz, Ade and Sankarasubramanian, A. and DeCarolis, J.}, year={2021}, month={Dec}, pages={121273} }
 @article{cawthorne_rodrigo de queiroz_eshraghi_sankarasubramanian_decarolis_2021, title={The Role of Temperature Variability on Seasonal Electricity Demand in the Southern US}, volume={3}, ISSN={["2624-9634"]}, url={http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-85123099133&partnerID=MN8TOARS}, DOI={10.3389/frsc.2021.644789}, abstractNote={The reliable and affordable supply of energy through interconnected systems represent a critical infrastructure challenge. Seasonal and interannual variability in climate variables—primarily precipitation and temperature—can increase the vulnerability of such systems during climate extremes. The objective of this study is to understand and quantify the role of temperature variability on electricity consumption over representative areas of the Southern United States. We consider two states, Tennessee and Texas, which represent different climate regimes and have limited electricity trade with adjacent regions. Results from regression tests indicate that regional population growth explains most of the variability in electricity demand at decadal time scales, whereas temperature explains 44–67% of the electricity demand variability at seasonal time scales. Seasonal temperature forecasts from general circulation models are also used to develop season-ahead power demand forecasts. Results suggest that the use of climate forecasts can potentially help to project future residential electricity demand at the monthly time scale.}, journal={Frontiers in Sustainable Cities}, author={Cawthorne, D. and Rodrigo de Queiroz, A. and Eshraghi, H. and Sankarasubramanian, A. and DeCarolis, J.F.}, year={2021}, month={Jun} }
 @article{decarolis_jaramillo_johnson_mccollum_trutnevyte_daniels_akin-olcum_bergerson_cho_choi_et al._2020, title={Leveraging Open-Source Tools for Collaborative Macro-energy System Modeling Efforts}, volume={4}, ISSN={["2542-4351"]}, url={http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-85097654384&partnerID=MN8TOARS}, DOI={10.1016/j.joule.2020.11.002}, abstractNote={The authors are founding team members of a new effort to develop an Open Energy Outlook for the United States. The effort aims to apply best practices of policy-focused energy system modeling, ensure transparency, build a networked community, and work toward a common purpose: examining possible US energy system futures to inform energy and climate policy efforts. Individual author biographies can be found on the project website: https://openenergyoutlook.org/.}, number={12}, journal={JOULE}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={DeCarolis, Joseph F. and Jaramillo, Paulina and Johnson, Jeremiah X. and McCollum, David L. and Trutnevyte, Evelina and Daniels, David C. and Akin-Olcum, Gokce and Bergerson, Joule and Cho, Soolyeon and Choi, Joon-Ho and et al.}, year={2020}, month={Dec}, pages={2523–2526} }
 @article{eshraghi_queiroz_decarolis_2018, title={US Energy-Related Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Absence of Federal Climate Policy}, volume={52}, ISSN={["1520-5851"]}, url={http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-85052916806&partnerID=MN8TOARS}, DOI={10.1021/acs.est.8b01586}, abstractNote={The planned US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement as well as uncertainty about federal climate policy has raised questions about the country's future emissions trajectory. Our model-based analysis accounts for uncertainty in fuel prices and energy technology capital costs and suggests that market forces are likely to keep US energy-related greenhouse gas emissions relatively flat or produce modest reductions: in the absence of new federal policy, 2040 greenhouse gas emissions range from +10% to -23% of the baseline estimate. Natural gas versus coal utilization in the electric sector represents a key trade-off, particularly under conservative assumptions about future technology innovation. The lowest emissions scenarios are produced when the cost of natural gas and electric vehicles declines, while coal and oil prices increase relative to the baseline.}, number={17}, journal={ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY}, publisher={American Chemical Society (ACS)}, author={Eshraghi, Hadi and Queiroz, Anderson Rodrigo and DeCarolis, Joseph F.}, year={2018}, month={Sep}, pages={9595–9604} }
 @article{eshraghi_maleki_2016, title={Reshaping energy policy for sustainable development: Curbing Iran's carbon emission monster via renewable energies}, volume={11}, ISSN={["1556-7257"]}, DOI={10.1080/15567249.2013.810313}, abstractNote={ABSTRACT This paper formulates flow of energy from primary resources and import routes to different socio-economic sectors by making use of Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model. It presents a baseline of how Iran’s future production and consumption patterns evolve. It also seeks plausible scenario for renewable energies utilization and evaluates its mitigation potential and economic aspects. Model results indicate that exploitation of a “not-too-strict” package of renewable sources featuring 10 GW of wind and 19 GW of hydro by the end of 2035 will lead to CO2 emissions to be reduced up to an amount of 190.7 million tons in the study period. By accounting for the opportunity costs different fossil fuels can have, and with a 22% discount rate, abatement of 1 ton of CO2 costs about 7.5 $ (in 2005 constant prices) that declines to zero with a discount rate equal to 7.7%. The paper is concluded by discussing policy options for overcoming barriers hindering the development of renewable resources in the context of country-specific characteristics.}, number={9}, journal={ENERGY SOURCES PART B-ECONOMICS PLANNING AND POLICY}, author={Eshraghi, Hadi and Maleki, Abbas}, year={2016}, pages={830–840} }