@article{sparks_farahbakhsh_anand_bauch_conlon_east_li_lickley_garcia-menendez_monier_et al._2024, title={Health and equity implications of individual adaptation to air pollution in a changing climate}, volume={121}, ISSN={["1091-6490"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2215685121}, DOI={10.1073/pnas.2215685121}, abstractNote={
            Future climate change can cause more days with poor air quality. This could trigger more alerts telling people to stay inside to protect themselves, with potential consequences for health and health equity. Here, we study the change in US air quality alerts over this century due to fine particulate matter (PM
            2.5
            ), who they may affect, and how they may respond. We find air quality alerts increase by over 1 mo per year in the eastern United States by 2100 and quadruple on average. They predominantly affect areas with high Black populations and leakier homes, exacerbating existing inequalities and impacting those less able to adapt. Reducing emissions can offer significant annual health benefits ($5,400 per person) by mitigating the effect of climate change on air pollution and its associated risks of early death. Relying on people to adapt, instead, would require them to stay inside, with doors and windows closed, for an extra 142 d per year, at an average cost of $11,000 per person. It appears likelier, however, that people will achieve minimal protection without policy to increase adaptation rates. Boosting adaptation can offer net benefits, even alongside deep emission cuts. New adaptation policies could, for example: reduce adaptation costs; reduce infiltration and improve indoor air quality; increase awareness of alerts and adaptation; and provide measures for those working or living outdoors. Reducing emissions, conversely, lowers everyone’s need to adapt, and protects those who cannot adapt. Equitably protecting human health from air pollution under climate change requires both mitigation and adaptation.
          }, number={5}, journal={PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA}, author={Sparks, Matt S. and Farahbakhsh, Isaiah and Anand, Madhur and Bauch, Chris T. and Conlon, Kathryn C. and East, James D. and Li, Tianyuan and Lickley, Megan and Garcia-Menendez, Fernando and Monier, Erwan and et al.}, year={2024}, month={Jan} }
 @article{kang_hogrefe_sarwar_east_madden_mathur_henderson_2022, title={Assessing the Impact of Lightning NOx Emissions in CMAQ Using Lightning Flash Data from WWLLN over the Contiguous United States}, volume={13}, ISSN={["2073-4433"]}, DOI={10.3390/atmos13081248}, abstractNote={Comparison of lightning flash data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) and from the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) over the contiguous United States (CONUS) for the 2016–2018 period reveals temporally and spatially varying flash rates that would influence lightning NOx (LNOx) production due to known detection efficiency differences especially during summer months over land (versus over ocean). However, the lightning flash density differences between the two networks show persistent seasonal patterns over geographical regions (e.g., land versus ocean). Since the NLDN data are considered to have higher accuracy (lightning detection with >95% efficiency), we developed scaling factors for the WWLLN flash data based on the ratios of WWLLN to NLDN flash data over time (months of year) and space. In this study, sensitivity simulations using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model are performed utilizing the original data sets (both NLDN and WWLLN) and the scaled WWLLN flash data for LNOx production over the CONUS. The model performance of using the different lightning flash datasets for ambient O3 and NOx mixing ratios that are directly impacted by LNOx emissions and the wet and dry deposition of oxidized nitrogen species that are indirectly impacted by LNOx emissions is assessed based on comparisons with ground-based observations, vertical profile measurements, and satellite products. During summer months, the original WWLLN data produced less LNOx emissions (due to its lower lightning detection efficiency) compared to the NLDN data, which resulted in less improvement in model performance than the simulation using NLDN data as compared to the simulation without any LNOx emissions. However, the scaled WWLLN data produced LNOx estimates and model performance comparable with the NLDN data, suggesting that scaled WWLLN may be used as a substitute for the NLDN data to provide LNOx estimates in air quality models when the NLDN data are not available (e.g., due to prohibitive cost or lack of spatial coverage).}, number={8}, journal={ATMOSPHERE}, author={Kang, Daiwen and Hogrefe, Christian and Sarwar, Golam and East, James D. and Madden, J. Mike and Mathur, Rohit and Henderson, Barron H.}, year={2022}, month={Aug} }
 @article{east_monier_g-menendez_2022, title={Characterizing and quantifying uncertainty in projections of climate change impacts on air quality}, volume={17}, ISSN={["1748-9326"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac8d17}, DOI={10.1088/1748-9326/ac8d17}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={9}, journal={ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS}, author={East, James D. and Monier, Erwan and G-Menendez, Fernando}, year={2022}, month={Sep} }
 @article{east_henderson_napelenok_koplitz_sarwar_gilliam_lenzen_tong_pierce_garcia-menendez_2022, title={Inferring and evaluating satellite-based constraints on NOx emissionsestimates in air quality simulations}, volume={22}, ISSN={["1680-7324"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15981-2022}, DOI={10.5194/acp-22-15981-2022}, abstractNote={Abstract. Satellite observations of tropospheric NO2 columns can provide top-down observational constraints on emissions estimates of nitrogen oxides (NOx). Mass-balance-based methods are often applied for this purpose but do not isolate near-surface emissions from those aloft, such as lightning emissions. Here, we introduce an inverse modeling
framework that couples satellite chemical data assimilation to a chemical
transport model. In the framework, satellite-constrained emissions totals
are inferred using model simulations with and without data assimilation in
the iterative finite-difference mass-balance method. The approach improves
the finite-difference mass-balance inversion by isolating the near-surface
emissions increment. We apply the framework to separately estimate lightning and anthropogenic NOx emissions over the Northern Hemisphere for 2019. Using overlapping observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and the Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI), we compare separate NOx emissions inferences from these satellite instruments, as well as the impacts of emissions changes on modeled NO2 and O3. OMI inferences of anthropogenic emissions consistently lead to larger emissions than TROPOMI inferences, attributed to a low bias in TROPOMI NO2 retrievals. Updated lightning NOx emissions from either satellite improve the chemical transport model's low tropospheric O3 bias. The combined lighting and anthropogenic emissions updates improve the model's ability to reproduce measured ozone by adjusting natural, long-range, and local pollution contributions. Thus, the framework informs and supports the design of domestic and international control strategies.
                    }, number={24}, journal={ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS}, author={East, James D. and Henderson, Barron H. and Napelenok, Sergey L. and Koplitz, Shannon N. and Sarwar, Golam and Gilliam, Robert and Lenzen, Allen and Tong, Daniel Q. and Pierce, R. Bradley and Garcia-Menendez, Fernando}, year={2022}, month={Dec}, pages={15981–16001} }
 @article{east_montealegre_pachon_garcia-menendez_2021, title={Air quality modeling to inform pollution mitigation strategies in a Latin American megacity}, volume={776}, ISSN={["1879-1026"]}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145894}, DOI={10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145894}, abstractNote={Poor air quality disproportionally impacts cities in low- and middle-income countries. In Bogotá, Colombia, a metropolitan area with over 10 million inhabitants, fine particulate matter (PM2.5) levels regularly exceed air quality guidelines, leading to detrimental effects on health. Although there is public interest to improve the city's air quality, the main sources of PM2.5 pollution have not been clearly identified and the use of modeling for policy development in Bogotá has been limited. Here, we apply a modeling framework based on the Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling System (CMAQ) to conduct seasonal simulations of air pollution in Bogotá and reveal the emissions sectors with the largest contributions to PM2.5. Based on these results, we project and compare the air quality benefits of potential pollution mitigation strategies focused on these sources. The analysis finds that resuspended dust from unpaved roads is the largest local source of PM2.5 and can contribute over 30% of seasonally-averaged concentration across the city. Vehicles, industrial activity, and unpaved road dust combined are responsible for over 60% of PM2.5 pollution in Bogotá. A scenario analysis shows that paving roads can lead to PM2.5 decreases of nearly 10 μg/m3 by 2030 in some areas of the city, but air quality will deteriorate significantly over others in the absence of additional emissions control measures. Mitigation strategies designed to target the sectors with the largest contributions to PM2.5, including road cleaning systems, controls for industrial point sources, cleaner transportation fuels, and updated vehicle fleets, can largely avert projected increases in concentrations, although the impacts of different approaches vary throughout the city. This study is the first to use a comprehensive model to determine sector contributions to air pollution and inform potential emissions control policies in Bogotá, demonstrating an approach to guide pollution management in developing cities facing comparable challenges.}, journal={SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={East, James and Montealegre, Juan Sebastian and Pachon, Jorge E. and Garcia-Menendez, Fernando}, year={2021}, month={Jul} }