@article{henderson_abt_abt_2024, title={Forest carbon under increasing product demand and land use change in the US Southeast}, volume={167}, ISSN={["1872-7050"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103296}, journal={FOREST POLICY AND ECONOMICS}, author={Henderson, Jesse D. and Abt, Robert C. and Abt, Karen L.}, year={2024}, month={Oct} }
 @article{korhonen_panwar_henderson_fernholz_leggett_meyer_bhuta_2024, title={Gaps in diversity representation and data insufficiencies in the U.S. forest sector workforce analysis}, volume={15}, ISSN={["2666-7193"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tfp.2023.100486}, DOI={10.1016/j.tfp.2023.100486}, abstractNote={When comprehensive and accurate data on diversity and representation is available, it significantly enhances our understanding of business challenges, thereby bolstering policy decisions and strategy formulation across all organizational tiers. Using the U.S. forest sector as a case study, we illustrate that there are significant gaps in diversity and representation within the private forest sector, particularly in terms of gender and race. These disparities exist across various domains and categories, including different forest industries, job roles, and business ownership structures. Our analysis brings to light the inadequacies of the current workforce data, emphasizing their limitations in keeping pace with the changing socio-economic landscape. We examine these areas of oversight and emphasize the profound implications they have for guiding both research and practices aimed at cultivating a sustainable and inclusive workforce.}, journal={TREES FORESTS AND PEOPLE}, author={Korhonen, Jaana and Panwar, Rajat and Henderson, Jesse and Fernholz, Kathryn and Leggett, Zakiya and Meyer, Eliza and Bhuta, Arvind A. R.}, year={2024}, month={Mar} }
 @article{dhungel_rossi_henderson_abt_sheffield_baker_2023, title={Critical Market Tipping Points for High-Grade White Oak Inventory Decline in the Central Hardwood Region of the United States}, volume={2}, ISSN={["1938-3746"]}, DOI={10.1093/jofore/fvad005}, abstractNote={Abstract
               This study expands the spatial scope of the Subregional Timber Supply (SRTS) model to include states in the central hardwood region and examine critical market tipping points of high-grade (large diameter) white oak under a set of illustrative scheduled demand scenarios. In light of the growing concern for future white oak timber supply, we illustrate the sensitivity of future inventory tipping points to market structure and price responsiveness. Particularly, we examined the importance of market demand parameters, including growth rates for product demand and supply/demand elasticities, in influencing future inventory trajectories in different subregions over the projection horizon. Results of this study indicate that more elastic demand and more inelastic supply response concomitantly defers the time before inventory culminates. This modeling framework shows promise in examining key ecological, climatic, and economic interrelationships that will drive future resource changes.}, journal={JOURNAL OF FORESTRY}, author={Dhungel, Gaurav and Rossi, David and Henderson, Jesse D. and Abt, Robert C. and Sheffield, Ray and Baker, Justin}, year={2023}, month={Feb} }
 @article{butler_caputo_henderson_pugh_riitters_sass_2022, title={An assessment of the sustainability of family forests in the U.S.A.}, volume={142}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2022.102783}, DOI={10.1016/j.forpol.2022.102783}, abstractNote={Across the U.S.A., as across many countries, families, individuals, trusts, estates, and family partnerships, collectively referred to as family forest ownerships, own a plurality of the forestland. The Montréal Process Criteria and Indicators (C&I) were used to assess the sustainability of these lands. There are currently 109 million ha of family forestland across the conterminous U.S.A., but this area is decreasing by 1 million ha yr−1 with 64% of this acreage going to non-forest uses and the rest going to other forest ownership classes. While forest-type groups have remained relatively constant, the area of forestland in smaller stand sizes has been decreasing and the area in larger stand sizes has been commensurately increasing. These forests provide critical habitat for many species with an average of 3.3 at-risk species per location. There is an estimated 12.7 billion m3 of wood on these lands with annual timber harvests of 160 million m3. For most species, the ratio of net growth to removals is well above 1.0, but there are notable exceptions, often associated with insects, changing fire regimes, or other departures from historical conditions. Looking only at timber harvesting, family forests are annually supporting an estimated 47.4 thousand jobs with combined wages of USD$2 billion. Land regulations, taxation, and incentives vary considerably across the U.S.A. with regulations ranging from regulatory to voluntary. Overall, the C&I indicate a mixed prognosis for the sustainability of America's family forests: while many of the general ecological and productivity indicators are positive, the loss of family forestland is of notable concern as are the threats posed by specific disturbances and for specific species. To maintain the sustainability of America's family forest, the analysis suggests focusing on policies, such as conservation easements and preferential property tax programs, aimed at keeping family forests as family forests.}, journal={Forest Policy and Economics}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Butler, Brett J. and Caputo, Jesse and Henderson, Jesse D. and Pugh, Scott A. and Riitters, Kurt and Sass, Emma M.}, year={2022}, month={Sep}, pages={102783} }
 @article{butler_caputo_henderson_pugh_riitters_sass_2022, title={Cross-Boundary Sustainability: Assessment across Forest Ownership Categories in the Conterminous USA Using the Montréal Process Criteria and Indicators Framework}, volume={13}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/f13070992}, DOI={10.3390/f13070992}, abstractNote={The conservation and sustainable management of forests across ownership groups of the conterminous USA was assessed using the Montréal Process Criteria and Indicators (C&I) framework using national forest inventory and other data. Sixty-one percent of the forest area in the USA is Privately owned (20% Corporate, 39% Family, and 2% Other Private), 37% is Public (28% Federal, 2% Local, and 7% State), and 2% is within Native American Tribal Reservation boundaries. There are many commonalities across ownership categories, but there are also important differences. A 1.1 million ha yr−1 decrease in Family forestland and a 1.0 million ha yr−1 increase in Corporate forestland (C&I 1.1.a) between 2012 and 2019 are among the main trends with implications for sustainability and influence all other aspects considered through the C&I. The majority of annual timber harvests (C&I 2.d) comes from Corporate (46%) and Family (42%) forestlands. Of the most common species, net growth to removal ratios (C&I 2.d) are less than 1.0 for three species on Tribal forestland, two species on Federal forestlands, and two species on Corporate forestlands. Disturbances (C&I 3.a and 3.b) are relatively common (ranging from 4 to 15% of forestland within an ownership category) across ownership categories with the highest proportion of disturbances being caused by diseases and pests on Federal forestland. Differences in the legal and institutional frameworks across ownership categories (Criterion 7) influence how the forest resources can be managed and how policies, programs, and services can be designed and implemented to help maintain and enhance the flow of forest-based goods and services. This analysis helps illustrate that sustainability is complex, C&I are imperfect, and there are additional elements, such as recreational access and ownership/management objectives, that would be helpful for comparing across ownership categories. But the Montréal Process C&I framework helps elucidate the relative threats among ownership categories, in particular the loss of Family forestland to non-forest uses and the increase in disturbances across most ownership categories, and the relative opportunities across ownership categories, including the sustainable supply of timber from Corporate and Family forestlands and the relatively high tree, and presumably broader, biodiversity especially on Local and Other Private forestlands.}, number={7}, journal={Forests}, publisher={MDPI AG}, author={Butler, Brett J. and Caputo, Jesse and Henderson, Jesse D. and Pugh, Scott and Riitters, Kurt and Sass, Emma M.}, year={2022}, month={Jun}, pages={992} }
 @article{henderson_abt_abt_baker_sheffield_2022, title={Impacts of hurricanes on forest markets and economic welfare: The case of hurricane Michael}, volume={140}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2022.102735}, DOI={10.1016/j.forpol.2022.102735}, abstractNote={This paper develops methodologies and identifies data gaps for understanding the impacts of hurricanes on forest product markets. Using the case of Hurricane Michael, we simulate damage to forest growing stock and forest area from alternative damage estimations (inventory and remote sensed). We then consider alternative scenarios for replanting, and the spatial distribution of salvage consumption. Beyond previous analyses we examine both short run and long run market outcomes resulting from the age demographics of standing timber post-hurricane. The simulation framework developed allows for the comparison of welfare and forest carbon consequences. Across scenarios the hurricane causes a welfare increase for pine sawtimber producers ranging from 1.2 to 1.5 times the no-hurricane baseline, and a loss for pine sawtimber consumers ranging from 0.6 to 0.8 times the baseline. Hardwood sawtimber producers gain by equivalent factors of 1.8, and consumers lose half. All scenarios gained forest carbon on the order of 1.2 times the pre-hurricane forest carbon, however, the no-hurricane case exhibited both higher carbon and carbon per unit area after a 40-year simulation.}, journal={Forest Policy and Economics}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Henderson, Jesse D. and Abt, Robert C. and Abt, Karen L. and Baker, Justin and Sheffield, Ray}, year={2022}, month={Jul}, pages={102735} }
 @article{henderson_parajuli_abt_2020, title={Biological and market responses of pine forests in the US Southeast to carbon fertilization}, volume={169}, ISSN={["1873-6106"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106491}, abstractNote={In the coming decades, climate change is projected to cause carbon dioxide fertilization effects in pine forests in the US Southeast. Resulting changes in pine (loblolly) growth will impact forest markets and regional carbon sequestration. We examine this impact in the context of baseline demand scenarios of increasing sophistication to determine the relative impact of growth and business as usual assumptions on forest growing stock volume, removals, prices and carbon sequestration. We use above-ground biomass data generated from the 3-PG forest growth model based on 20 climate models and Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios 4.5 and 8.5. We examine forest market and carbon sequestration impacts using the Sub-Regional Timber Supply model, with and without climate change-related growth. Results suggest that forest growing stock will increase under all climate change scenarios. Timber prices under carbon fertilization are projected to be lower over the long run.}, journal={ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS}, author={Henderson, Jesse D. and Parajuli, Rajan and Abt, Robert C.}, year={2020}, month={Mar} }
 @article{mei_wear_henderson_2019, title={Timberland Investment under Both Financial and Biophysical Risk}, volume={95}, ISSN={["1543-8325"]}, DOI={10.3368/le.95.2.279}, abstractNote={We extend real options analysis of timberland investments to examine a combination of financial and biophysical risk effects on optimal investment strategies in the southeastern United States. Results show that, despite a slight downward drift in price, expected returns for loblolly pine management fall between entry and exit thresholds, indicating an optimal “hold” strategy. This is explained by an offsetting upward trend in biophysical productivity associated with climate changes across a range of modeled futures. Monte Carlo analysis indicates a small positive difference between entry and exit outcomes consistent with observed rates of expansion in timberland investments in the region. <i>(JEL D81, Q23)</i>}, number={2}, journal={LAND ECONOMICS}, author={Mei, Bin and Wear, David N. and Henderson, Jesse D.}, year={2019}, month={May}, pages={279–291} }
 @article{duden_verweij_junginger_abt_henderson_dale_kline_karssenberg_verstegen_faaij_et al._2017, title={Modeling the impacts of wood pellet demand on forest dynamics in southeastern United States}, volume={11}, ISSN={["1932-1031"]}, url={http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-85029431513&partnerID=MN8TOARS}, DOI={10.1002/bbb.1803}, abstractNote={AbstractThe export of wood pellets from the southeastern United States (USA) has grown significantly in recent years, following rising demand from Europe. Increased wood pellet demand could lead to spatially variable changes in timberland management and area in the USA. This study presents an assessment of the impacts of increasing wood pellet demand (an additional 11.6 Mt by 2030) on land‐use dynamics, taking into account developments in other wood product markets as well as expected changes in other land uses. An economic model for the forest sector of the southeastern USA (SRTS) was linked to a land‐use change model (PLUC) to identify potential locations of land‐use change following scenarios of demand for pellets and other wood products. Projections show that in the absence of additional demand for wood pellets, natural timberland area is projected to decline by 450–15 000 km2 by 2030, mainly through urbanization and pine plantation establishment. Under the high wood pellet demand scenario, more (2000–7500 km2) natural timberland area is retained and more (8000–20 000 km2) pine plantation is established. Shifts from natural timberland to pine plantation occur predominantly in the Atlantic coastal region. Future work will assess the impact of projected transitions in natural timberland and pine plantations on biodiversity and carbon storage. This modeling framework can be applied for multiple scenarios and land‐use projections to identify locations of timberland area changes for the whole southeastern USA, thereby informing the debate about potential impacts of wood pellet demand on land‐use dynamics and environmental services. © 2017 The Authors. Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining published by Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.}, number={6}, journal={BIOFUELS BIOPRODUCTS & BIOREFINING-BIOFPR}, author={Duden, Anna S. and Verweij, Pita A. and Junginger, H. Martin and Abt, Robert C. and Henderson, Jesse D. and Dale, Virginia H. and Kline, Keith L. and Karssenberg, Derek and Verstegen, Judith A. and Faaij, Andre P. C. and et al.}, year={2017}, pages={1007–1029} }
 @article{henderson_abt_2016, title={An Agent-Based Model of Heterogeneous Forest Landowner Decisionmaking}, volume={62}, ISSN={["1938-3738"]}, url={http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-84983004007&partnerID=MN8TOARS}, DOI={10.5849/forsci.15-018}, abstractNote={The Forest Agent-Based Landowner Economy (FABLE) model simulates a market where private forest landowner agents with heterogeneous preferences cast bids using normative decisionmaking rules. In doing so, the model connects two areas of study important to the forest economics literature: market behavior and behavior of individual forest landowners. The model constructs heterogeneity by separating agents into those who bid based on a valuation of timber and those who bid based on an amenity value. Furthermore, discount rates vary among agents and stand age is drawn from an empirical age class distribution of North Carolina's southern coastal plain. Model outputs include price, removals, average harvest age, and age class structure. A sensitivity analysis on demand curve and amenity value scenarios shows expected economic relationships as exhibited by model outputs and by implicit supply and inventory elasticities. For the majority of scenarios, these elasticity estimates, which are not predetermined but represent an emergent property of the model, are consistent with empirical estimates. Equilibrium dynamics mimic long-wave inventory cycles found historically, rather than simple steady-state solutions.}, number={4}, journal={FOREST SCIENCE}, author={Henderson, Jesse D. and Abt, Robert C.}, year={2016}, month={Aug}, pages={364–376} }
 @article{galik_abt_latta_méley_henderson_2016, title={Meeting renewable energy and land use objectives through public–private biomass supply partnerships}, volume={172}, ISSN={0306-2619}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/J.APENERGY.2016.03.047}, DOI={10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.03.047}, abstractNote={Bioenergy is a significant source of renewable energy in the U.S. and internationally. We explore whether creation of localized bioenergy markets near existing military installations in the southeastern U.S. could simultaneously address military renewable energy generation objectives while reducing urban encroachment. We model the use of public–private partnerships to stimulate the creation of these markets, in which stable installation demand is paired with stable supply from surrounding landowners. We employ two economic models – the SubRegional Timber Supply (SRTS) model and the Forest and Agricultural Sector Model with Greenhouse Gases (FASOMGHG) – to assess how markets influence forest and agriculture land use, renewable energy production, and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation at the regional and national levels. When all selected installations increase bioenergy capacity simultaneously, we find increased preservation of forest land area, increased forest carbon storage in the region, and increased renewable energy generation at military installations. Nationally, however, carbon stocks are depleted as harvests increase, increasing GHG emissions even after accounting for potential displaced emissions from coal- or natural gas-fired generation. Increasing bioenergy generation on a single installation within the southeast has very different effects on forest area and composition, yielding greater standing timber volume and higher forest carbon stock. In addition to demonstrating the benefits of linking two partial equilibrium models of varying solution technique, sectoral scope, and resource detail, results suggest that a tailored policy approach may be more effective in meeting local encroachment reduction and renewable energy generation objectives while avoiding negative GHG mitigation consequences.}, journal={Applied Energy}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Galik, Christopher S. and Abt, Robert C. and Latta, Gregory and Méley, Andréanne and Henderson, Jesse D.}, year={2016}, month={Jun}, pages={264–274} }
 @article{abt_abt_cubbage_henderson_2010, title={Effect of policy-based bioenergy demand on southern timber markets: A case study of North Carolina}, volume={34}, ISSN={0961-9534}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.biombioe.2010.05.007}, DOI={10.1016/j.biombioe.2010.05.007}, abstractNote={Key factors driving renewable energy demand are state and federal policies requiring the use of renewable feedstocks to produce energy (renewable portfolio standards) and liquid fuels (renewable fuel standards). However, over the next decade, the infrastructure for renewable energy supplies is unlikely to develop as fast as both policy- and market-motivated renewable energy demands. This will favor the use of existing wood as a feedstock in the first wave of bioenergy production. The ability to supply wood over the next decade is a function of the residual utilization, age class structure, and competition from traditional wood users. Using the North Carolina Renewable Portfolio Standard as a case study, combined with assumptions regarding energy efficiency, logging residual utilization, and traditional wood demands over time, we simulate the impacts of increased woody biomass demand on timber markets. We focus on the dynamics resulting from the interaction of short-run demand changes and long-term supply responses. We conclude that logging residuals alone may be unable to meet bioenergy demands from North Carolina's Renewable Portfolio Standard. Thus, small roundwood (pulpwood) may be used to meet remaining bioenergy demands, resulting in increased timber prices and removals; displacement of traditional products; higher forest landowner incomes; and changes in the structure of the forest resource.}, number={12}, journal={Biomass and Bioenergy}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Abt, Robert C. and Abt, Karen L. and Cubbage, Frederick W. and Henderson, Jesse D.}, year={2010}, month={Dec}, pages={1679–1686} }