@article{kurki-fox_doll_monteleone_west_putnam_kelleher_krause_schneidewind_2023, title={Microplastic distribution and characteristics across a large river basin: Insights from the Neuse River in North Carolina, USA}, volume={878}, ISSN={["1879-1026"]}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162940}, DOI={10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162940}, abstractNote={While microplastics (MP) have been found in aquatic ecosystems around the world, the understanding of drivers and controls of their occurrence and distribution have yet to be determined. In particular, their fate and transport in river catchments and networks are still poorly understood. We identified MP concentrations in water and streambed sediment at fifteen locations across the Neuse River Basin in North Carolina, USA. Water samples were collected with two different mesh sizes, a trawl net (>335 μm) and a 64 μm sieve used to filter bailing water samples. MPs >335 μm were found in all the water samples with concentrations ranging from 0.02 to 221 particles per m3 (p m-3) with a median of 0.44 p m-3. The highest concentrations were observed in urban streams and there was a significant correlation between streamflow and MP concentration in the most urbanized locations. Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) analysis indicated that for MPs >335 μm the three most common polymer types were polyethylene, polypropylene, and polystyrene. There were substantially more MP particles observed when samples were analyzed using a smaller mesh size (>64 μm), with concentrations ranging from 20 to 130 p m-3 and the most common polymer type being polyethylene terephthalate as identified by Raman spectroscopy. The ratio of MP concentrations (64 μm to 335 μm) ranged from 35 to 375, indicating the 335 μm mesh substantially underestimates MPs relative to the 64 μm mesh. MPs were detected in 14/15 sediment samples. Sediment and water column concentrations were not correlated. We estimate MP (>64 μm) loading from the Neuse River watershed to be 230 billion particles per year. The findings of this study help to better understand how MPs are spatially distributed and transported through a river basin and how MP concentrations are impacted by land cover, hydrology, and sampling method.}, journal={SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Kurki-Fox, Jack and Doll, Barbara A. and Monteleone, Bonnie and West, Kayla and Putnam, Gloria and Kelleher, Liam and Krause, Stefan and Schneidewind, Uwe}, year={2023}, month={Jun} }
 @article{hovis_cubbage_hollinger_shear_doll_kurki-fox_line_lovejoy_evans_potter_2022, title={Determining the costs, revenues, and cost-share payments for the “floodwise” program: Nature-based solutions to mitigate flooding in eastern, rural North Carolina}, volume={2}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.nbsj.2022.100016}, DOI={10.1016/j.nbsj.2022.100016}, abstractNote={FloodWise is a pilot project that proposes innovative new approaches for flood disaster resilience by applying nature-based solutions (NBS) in Eastern North Carolina to control water runoff for brief periods after major storm events. We collected production and cost data from primary or secondary sources and used discounted cash flow and capital budgeting procedures at a 6% discount rate for NBS practices to estimate the amounts of payments necessary for farmland owners to break even to adopt NBS practices. Conventional crop farming was profitable already on suitable lands and served as the business as usual (BAU) case to compare to selected NBS practices. Warm-season pasture, loblolly pine forests and agroforestry, and no-till farming exceeded the 6% hurdle rate. Other conventional farm practices of hardpan breakup, cool-season pastures and trees, and bottomland hardwoods would require total payments of up to $600/acre to break even at 6%. Modifications of existing conservation practices, such as stream buffers, cover crops, silvopasture, and tile outlet terraces and tiling, fell in the second tier of total costs of up to $1,512/acre. Major NBS projects that required substantial earthmoving and flood control structures were more expensive - $3,734/acre for water farming (i.e., retention) with berms, $13,252/acre for a forest wetland bank, and about $88,000/acre for a major flood control wetland - and would displace most of the existing area for farm and forest management. However, larger floodwater structure projects could store more water for more extended periods; these storage quantities and benefits need to be assessed in future research.}, journal={Nature-Based Solutions}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Hovis, Meredith and Cubbage, Frederick and Hollinger, Joseph Chris and Shear, Theodore and Doll, Barbara and Kurki-Fox, J. Jack and Line, Daniel and Lovejoy, Michelle and Evans, Bryan and Potter, Thomas}, year={2022}, month={Dec}, pages={100016} }
 @article{kurki-fox_doll_line_baldwin_klondike_fox_2022, title={Estimating Changes in Peak Flow and Associated Reductions in Flooding Resulting from Implementing Natural Infrastructure in the Neuse River Basin, North Carolina, USA}, volume={14}, ISSN={["2073-4441"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.3390/w14091479}, DOI={10.3390/w14091479}, abstractNote={As the frequency of more intense storms increases and concerns grow regarding the use of dams and levees, the focus has shifted to natural infrastructure (NI) for flood mitigation. NI has shown some success at small scales; however, little work has been carried out at the large watershed scale during extreme events. Three NI measures (afforestation, water farming, and flood control wetlands) were evaluated in the Neuse River Basin of eastern North Carolina. Detailed geospatial opportunity and hydrologic modeling of the measures were conducted in three subwatersheds of the basin and results were extrapolated to other subwatersheds. NI opportunity was greater and associated modeled peak flow reductions were larger for two subwatersheds located in the lower portion of the basin, where there is less development and flatter land slopes. Peak flow reductions varied spatially depending on the type and placement of NI combined with the hydraulic and morphologic characteristics of the stream network. Extrapolation of reductions to other subwatersheds produced a 4.4% reduction in peak flow for the 100 year storm at the outlet of the river basin in Kinston as a result of water farming on 1.1%, wetlands controlling runoff from 5.7%, and afforestation of 8.4% of the river basin.}, number={9}, journal={WATER}, author={Kurki-Fox, J. Jack and Doll, Barbara A. and Line, Daniel E. and Baldwin, Madalyn E. and Klondike, Travis M. and Fox, Andrew A.}, year={2022}, month={May} }
 @article{kurki-fox_doll_line_baldwin_klondike_fox_2022, title={The flood reduction and water quality impacts of watershed-scale natural infrastructure implementation in North Carolina, USA}, volume={181}, ISSN={["1872-6992"]}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoleng.2022.106696}, DOI={10.1016/j.ecoleng.2022.106696}, abstractNote={Natural infrastructure as a mitigation measure for flooding has received increased attention following recent extreme rainfall and flood events in North Carolina. While natural infrastructure (e.g., wetlands, floodplain expansion, reforestation, etc.) has been shown to reduce runoff and mitigate peak flows, it is difficult to predict the aggregate impacts of widespread implementation at the watershed scale for a given location. The primary objectives of this study were to identify suitable areas for natural infrastructure implementation on the landscape to reduce flooding and to use the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to simulate the flood reduction and water quality impacts for three subwatersheds (~150 sq. km each) of the Neuse River Basin. Model results indicated that substantial localized annual maximum flow reduction (up to 30–40%) was possible, mostly correlated to the area of natural infrastructure implementation in the subbasin, but flood reduction benefits declined at the subwatershed-scale (1–16%). On a per hectare basis, wetlands sized and designed strategically for flood control had a greater impact on peak flow reduction than reforestation. The implementation of reforestation and flood control wetlands produced substantial nutrient and sediment load reductions, which also correlated with the area of natural infrastructure implementation. Total nitrogen load reduction ranged from 6 to 18% and total phosphorus load reductions from 4 to 17% for the most intensive implementation of wetlands restoration and reforestation. Sediment load reductions ranged from 16 to 30%. The results of this study illustrate that while flood reduction benefits can be realized at local scales (i.e., subbasin), a substantial area would need to be converted to natural infrastructure to provide flood reduction benefits at the watershed scale.}, journal={ECOLOGICAL ENGINEERING}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Kurki-Fox, Jack and Doll, Barbara A. and Line, Daniel E. and Baldwin, Madalyn E. and Klondike, Travis M. and Fox, Andrew A.}, year={2022}, month={Aug} }
 @article{kurki-fox_burchell_2021, title={Characterizing ambient nutrient concentrations and potential warning levels for surface water in natural forested wetlands in the Piedmont and Coastal Plain of North Carolina, USA}, volume={172}, ISSN={["1872-6992"]}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoleng.2021.106395}, DOI={10.1016/j.ecoleng.2021.106395}, abstractNote={Nearly thirty years ago the U.S. EPA directed states to begin developing water quality standards specific to wetlands; however, progress has been limited. This study presents an overview of ambient wetland water quality and the first step towards the development of numeric nutrient standards for forested wetlands in North Carolina. Water quality samples were collected in 16 natural wetlands across the state for three years. The sites span a range of anthropogenic disturbance. The data was combined with historical data collected at these and other sites from 2005 to 2013. Concentration levels in wetlands without significant anthropogenic disturbance are likely higher than streams for TN, TP, similar for NH 4 + , and likely lower than streams for NO 3 – -N. A method developed by the U.S. EPA to establish reference levels was modified to define draft nutrient warning levels that may indicate anthropogenic impacts. These warning levels were calculated as 0.06 mg/L, 0.14 mg/L, 0.34 mg/L and 2.8 mg/L for NO 3 – -N, NH 4 + -N, TP and TN, respectively. NO 3 – -N and NH 4 + -N concentrations were the best indicators of disturbance. Overall, despite the limitations imposed by the sampling frequency and inherent variability in wetland ecosystems, this research methodology presents a reasonable first attempt at defining nutrient warning levels for undisturbed natural forested wetlands in N.C., and may serve as a starting point in developing numeric nutrient criteria for wetlands. • A first step towards the development of nutrient concentration standards for natural wetlands. • Wetland standard concentration levels are likely higher than streams for TN, TP, similar for NH 4 + -N, and lower for NO 3 N. • Proposed warning levels for NO 3 – N and NH 4 + -N were the best indicators of disturbance. TN, ON, and TP were not robust indicators. • Results could help identify disturbance in natural forested wetlands in North Carolina.}, journal={ECOLOGICAL ENGINEERING}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Kurki-Fox, J. Jack and Burchell, Michael R., II}, year={2021}, month={Dec} }
 @article{kurki-fox_burchell_vepraskas_broome_2021, title={Characterizing copper and zinc content in forested wetland soils of North Carolina, USA}, volume={193}, ISSN={["1573-2959"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-021-09618-6}, DOI={10.1007/s10661-021-09618-6}, abstractNote={Wetlands are often located in landscape positions where they receive runoff or floodwaters, which may contain toxic trace metals and other pollutants from anthropogenic sources. Over time, this can lead to the accumulation of potentially harmful levels of metals in wetlands soils. To assess the potential risk of Cu and Zn buildup in wetland soils in North Carolina, soil data from 88 wetlands were analyzed. In a subset of 16 wetlands, more intensive sampling was conducted. Samples were analyzed for Mehlich 3 Cu and Zn, and a subset of the samples was analyzed for total Cu and Zn. Overall, Mehlich 3 Cu and Zn were low, with mean values of 0.9 mg/kg for Cu and 3.2 mg/kg for Zn. Warning levels for Mehlich 3 Zn were only exceeded in three of the 88 sites; elevated Mehlich Cu was not observed. Total Cu and Zn were also low, with only a few sites having elevated levels; however, there was not a strong linear relationship between Mehlich 3 and total metals. Mean levels of Mehlich 3 Cu and Zn in wetlands were much lower than for human-impacted upland soils and background threshold concentrations that might be indicative of disturbance were much lower than warning levels for agricultural soils. The very low mobile Zn and Cu in most of these wetlands indicated that these metals do not pose a risk to the biota in most North Carolina wetlands, but wetlands with a direct and significant anthropogenic source of metal contamination could be exceptions.}, number={12}, journal={ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Kurki-Fox, J. Jack and Burchell, Michael R., II and Vepraskas, Michael J. and Broome, Stephen W.}, year={2021}, month={Dec} }
 @article{hovis_hollinger_cubbage_shear_doll_kurki-fox_line_fox_baldwin_klondike_et al._2021, title={Natural Infrastructure Practices as Potential Flood Storage and Reduction for Farms and Rural Communities in the North Carolina Coastal Plain}, volume={13}, ISSN={["2071-1050"]}, url={https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/16/9309}, DOI={10.3390/su13169309}, abstractNote={Increased global temperatures resulting from anthropogenically induced climate changes have increased the frequency and severity of adverse weather events, including extreme rainfall events, floods, and droughts. In recent years, nature-based solutions (NBS) have been proposed to retain storm runoff temporarily and mitigate flood damages. These practices may help rural farm and forest lands to store runoff and reduce flooding on farms and downstream communities and could be incorporated into a conservation program to provide payments for these efforts, which would supplement traditional farm incomes. Despite their potential, there have been very few methodical assessments and detailed summaries of NBS to date. We identified and summarized potential flood reduction practices for the Coastal Plain of North Carolina. These include agricultural practices of (1) cover cropping/no-till farming; (2) hardpan breakup; (3) pine or (4) hardwood afforestation, and (5) agroforestry; establishing the wetland and stream practices of (6) grass and sedge wetlands and earthen retention structures, (7) forest wetland banks, and (8) stream channel restoration; and establishing new structural solutions of (9) dry dams and berms (water farming) and (10) tile drainage and water retention. These practices offer different water holding and storage capacities and costs. A mixture of practices at the farm and landscape level can be implemented for floodwater retention and attenuation and damage reduction, as well as for providing additional farm and forest ecosystem services.}, number={16}, journal={SUSTAINABILITY}, publisher={MDPI AG}, author={Hovis, Meredith and Hollinger, Joseph Chris and Cubbage, Frederick and Shear, Theodore and Doll, Barbara and Kurki-Fox, J. Jack and Line, Daniel and Fox, Andrew and Baldwin, Madalyn and Klondike, Travis and et al.}, year={2021}, month={Aug} }
 @article{doll_kurki-fox_line_2020, title={A Framework for Planning and Evaluating the Role of Urban Stream Restoration for Improving Transportation Resilience to Extreme Rainfall Events}, volume={12}, url={https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/12/6/1620}, DOI={10.3390/w12061620}, abstractNote={Recent extreme rainfall events produced severe flooding across North Carolina’s Coastal Plain, revealing deep vulnerabilities in many communities. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these problems by further increasing rainfall intensity and the frequency of extreme rainfall events. Due to the risks posed by these changing rainfall patterns, a shift in the approach to infrastructure planning and management is needed for many floodprone communities, particularly in regard to managing streams and floodplains in urban areas. This study proposes a framework for systematically evaluating stream restoration in combination with engineered improvements to culvert and bridge crossings to identify and optimize options for mitigating extreme events in urban areas. To illustrate the methodology, extensive hydraulic modeling was conducted to test four different strategies for reducing flooding along a channelized and armored stream, Big Ditch, located in Goldsboro, North Carolina, USA. The results indicate that neither floodplain restoration nor infrastructure modification alone could alleviate flooding along Big Ditch. Rather, a combination approach would be required to mitigate flooding, which could result in substantial benefits for storms in excess of the 100-year event. The results suggest that shifting to a multi-faceted approach to improve resiliency to extreme events could improve public safety and reduce future damages due to flooding.}, number={6}, journal={Water}, publisher={MDPI AG}, author={Doll, Barbara A. and Kurki-Fox, J. Jack and Line, Daniel E.}, year={2020}, month={Jun}, pages={1620} }
 @article{doll_kurki-fox_page_nelson_johnson_2020, title={Flood Flow Frequency Analysis to Estimate Potential Floodplain Nitrogen Treatment during Overbank Flow Events in Urban Stream Restoration Projects}, volume={12}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w12061568}, DOI={10.3390/w12061568}, abstractNote={Stream restoration for mitigation purposes has grown rapidly since the 1980s. As the science advances, some organizations (Chesapeake Bay Program, North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality) have approved or are considering providing nutrient credits for stream restoration projects. Nutrient treatment on floodplains during overbank events is one of the least understood processes that have been considered as part of the Chesapeake Bay Program’s Stream Restoration Nutrient Crediting program. This study analyzed ten years of streamflow and water quality data from five stations in the Piedmont of North Carolina to evaluate proposed procedures for estimating nitrogen removal on the floodplain during overbank flow events. The volume of floodplain flow, the volume of floodplain flow potentially treated, and the nitrogen load retained on the floodplain were calculated for each overbank event, and a sensitivity analysis was completed. On average, 9% to 15% of the total annual streamflow volume accessed the floodplain. The percentage of the average annual volume of streamflow potentially treated ranged from 1.0% to 5.1%. Annually, this equates to 0.2% to 1.0% of the total N load retained/removed on the floodplain following restoration. The relatively low nitrogen retention/removal rates were due to a majority of floodplain flow occurring during a few large events each year that exceeded the treatment capacity of the floodplain. On an annual basis, 90% of total floodplain flow occurred during half of all overbank events and 50% of total floodplain flow occurred during two to three events each year. Findings suggest that evaluating only overbank events may lead to undervaluing stream restoration because treatment is limited by hydrologic controls that restrict floodplain retention time. Treatment is further governed by floodplain and channel size.}, number={6}, journal={Water}, publisher={MDPI AG}, author={Doll, Barbara A. and Kurki-Fox, J. Jack and Page, Jonathan L. and Nelson, Natalie G. and Johnson, Jeffrey P.}, year={2020}, month={May}, pages={1568} }
 @article{kamrath_burchell_kurki-fox_bass_2020, title={Impact of control structures on hydrologic restoration within the Great Dismal Swamp}, volume={158}, ISSN={["1872-6992"]}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoleng.2020.106024}, DOI={10.1016/j.ecoleng.2020.106024}, abstractNote={The Great Dismal Swamp (GDS) is a 45,000-ha state and federally protected Coastal Plain peatland located on the border of North Carolina and Virginia that contains stands of Bald cypress and the globally threatened Atlantic white cedar. Centuries of drainage and logging have substantially altered the hydrology of the GDS, negatively affecting its ecosystem structure and function. To restore a seasonally flooded, saturated hydrologic regime to portions of the swamp, adjustable water control structures (WCS) were installed at strategic locations within existing drainage ditches. The objective of this study was to determine if the installation of the WCSs significantly altered the hydropatterns of two target restoration areas, resulting in hydrologic conditions comparable to nearby reference sites with desired forest communities. The water table (WT) was monitored for three years prior to WCS installation (pre-WCS) and three years after WCS installation (post-WCS). Comparison of WT data from the pre and post-WCS periods, using jurisdictional wetland criteria and empirical cumulative distribution functions (ECDFs), indicated increased saturated conditions within the target restoration areas following installation of the WCS. Paired Before-After Control-Impact (BACIP) statistical analysis revealed the WCS installation had a significant positive impact on WT levels in the target restoration areas relative to the reference sites. Hydrologic restoration will aid the effort to restore target forest communities within the swamp, reduce fire susceptibility, prevent peat oxidation, maintain carbon storage, and reduce non-target vegetation competition.}, journal={ECOLOGICAL ENGINEERING}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Kamrath, Brock J. W. and Burchell, Michael R. and Kurki-Fox, J. Jack and Bass, Kris L.}, year={2020}, month={Dec} }
 @article{kurki-fox_burchell_kamrath_2019, title={The Potential Long-Term Impacts of Climate Change on the Hydrologic Regimes of North Carolina’s Coastal Plain Non-Riverine Wetlands}, volume={62}, ISSN={2151-0040}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.13031/trans.13437}, DOI={10.13031/trans.13437}, abstractNote={HighlightsBased on current emissions, mean water table decline in these wetlands will likely range from 25 to 65 cm by 2100.Projected changes could lead to a decline or loss of the important ecosystem services that wetlands provide to society.Results indicate a potential need to allocate more resources to developing strategies for managing wetlands.Abstract. Wetlands are especially at risk from climate change because of their intermediate landscape position (i.e., transition between upland and aquatic environments), where small changes in precipitation and/or evapotranspiration can have substantial impacts on wetland hydrology. Because hydrology is the primary factor influencing wetland structure and function, the important ecosystem services that wetlands provide may be altered or lost as a result of climate change. While a great deal of uncertainty is associated with the projected impacts of climate change on wetlands, hydrologic models and downscaled climate model projections provide tools to reduce this uncertainty. DRAINMOD is one such process-based hydrologic model that has been successfully adapted to simulate the daily water level fluctuations in natural wetlands. The objective of this project was to determine the range of possible impacts of climate change on the hydrologic regimes of non-riverine, non-tidal Coastal Plain wetlands in North Carolina. DRAINMOD models were calibrated and validated for two minimally disturbed, natural wetland sites using observed water table and local weather data. Two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios were evaluated: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Nine models were selected from an ensemble of 32 climate models to represent the range of possible changes in mean precipitation and temperature. Downscaled climate projections were obtained from the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. Simulations were run from 1986 to 2099, and results were evaluated by comparing the projected mean water table levels between the base period (1986-2015) and two future evaluation periods: 2040-2069 and 2070-2099. The model simulation results indicated that the projected mean water table level may decline by as much as 25 to 84 cm by the end of this century (2070-2099) for the RCP8.5 scenario and may decline by 4 to 61 cm for the RCP4.5 scenario. In Coastal Plain wetlands, declines in water tables can lead to the subsidence of organic soils, which can lead to the loss of stored carbon and increased risk of peat fires. Lower mean water levels can also lead to shifts in vegetation community composition and loss of habitat functions for wetland-dependent fauna. These results provide an overview of the potential impacts of climate change on North Carolina wetlands, and they provide a range of scenarios to inform and guide possible changes to water management strategies in wetland ecosystems that can be implemented now to limit the loss of ecosystem services over the long term. Keywords: Climate change, DRAINMOD, Hydrology, Modeling, North Carolina, Wetlands.}, number={6}, journal={Transactions of the ASABE}, publisher={American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers (ASABE)}, author={Kurki-Fox, J. Jack and Burchell, Michael R. and Kamrath, Brock J.}, year={2019}, pages={1591–1606} }
 @article{motz_kurki-fox_ged_boyer_2014, title={Increased Total Dissolved Solids, Chloride, and Bromide Concentrations Due to Sea-Level Rise in a Coastal Aquifer}, DOI={10.1061/9780784413548.030}, abstractNote={Rising sea levels can increase saltwater intrusion in coastal aquifers, impacting well fields by contaminating groundwater with increased total dissolved solids (TDS) and chloride concentrations. A groundwater model was created for Broward County in southeastern Florida, U.S.A., to simulate the increased TDS and chloride concentrations in a coastal well field due to sea-level rise (SLR)-induced saltwater intrusion. The objectives of the modeling were to simulate the increase in TDS and chloride concentrations in a well field for a range of SLR scenarios and quantify the results with respect to Secondary Maximum Contaminant Levels (SMCL’s) for TDS and chloride. Bromide concentrations were also simulated because bromide can form toxic disinfection byproducts (DBP’s) during drinking water treatment. SLR projections for the model were based on projections that follow the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change methodology in its Fourth Assessment Report, but they also include the effects of ice sheet melting in Greenland and Antarctica. These projections provide for three scenarios of SLR from 1990 to 2100, corresponding to 5%, 50% and 95% confidence levels. These estimates were extrapolated as part of this investigation to obtain projections of 0.11 m, 0.49 m, and 0.91 m SLR for three 100-year simulations from 2015 to 2115. A three-dimensional numerical groundwater model was constructed using the variable-density groundwater flow and transport code SEAWAT, and simulations were run for three 100-year transient simulations with maximum sea-level rise values at the coastal boundaries corresponding to the 5%, 50% and 95% confidence-level sea-level rise projections. Average TDS concentrations in ten production wells were obtained from the SEAWAT results, and chloride and bromide concentrations were calculated using standard seawater ratios for chloride and bromide relative to TDS. The bromide concentrations were used to model the concentrations of four trihalomethane species (THM4) that represent DPB’s that could be formed following chlorine addition during drinking water treatment. The results from the simulations indicate that the SMCL’s for TDS and chloride, which are based on cosmetic and aesthetic effects, will be exceeded in approximately 65 years from the start of the SLR simulations at the 95% confidence level for SLR. Of even greater significance, the results also indicate that the primary maximum contaminant level for THM4, which is based on health effects, will be exceeded in approximately 30 years from the start of the SLR simulations at the 95% confidence level for SLR.}, journal={World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2014}, publisher={American Society of Civil Engineers}, author={Motz, Louis H. and Kurki-Fox, Jack and Ged, Evan C. and Boyer, Treavor H.}, year={2014}, month={May} }