@article{peptenatu_andronache_ahammer_radulovic_costanza_jelinek_ieva_koyama_grecu_gruia_et al._2023, title={A new fractal index to classify forest fragmentation and disorder}, url={https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-023-01640-y}, DOI={10.1007/s10980-023-01640-y}, abstractNote={Abstract}, journal={Landscape Ecology}, author={Peptenatu, Daniel and Andronache, Ion and Ahammer, Helmut and Radulovic, Marko and Costanza, Jennifer K. and Jelinek, Herbert F. and Ieva, Antonio Di and Koyama, Kohei and Grecu, Alexandra and Gruia, Andreea Karina and et al.}, year={2023}, month={Jun} }
 @article{robbins_xu_jonko_chitra-tarak_fettig_costanza_mortenson_aukema_kueppers_scheller_2023, title={Carbon stored in live ponderosa pines in the Sierra Nevada will not return to pre-drought (2012) levels during the 21st century due to bark beetle outbreaks}, volume={11}, ISSN={["2296-665X"]}, DOI={10.3389/fenvs.2023.1112756}, abstractNote={Outbreaks of several bark beetle species can develop rapidly in response to drought and may result in large transfers of carbon (C) stored in live trees to C stored in dead trees (10s of Tg C yr-1 in the western U.S. alone), which over time will be released back to the atmosphere. The western pine beetle (WPB) outbreak incited by the 2012–2015 mega-drought in the Sierra Nevada, California, U.S., could portend more frequent and/or severe bark beetle outbreaks as the temperature warms and drought frequency and intensity increase in the future. However, changes in the frequency and/or severity (resultant levels of host tree mortality) of beetle outbreaks are difficult to predict as outbreaks are complex with non-linear and eruptive processes primarily driven by interactions among beetle populations, the demography of hosts and other tree species, and climate and weather. Using an insect phenology and tree defense model, we projected the future likelihood of WPB outbreaks in the Sierra Nevada with climate drivers from different Earth System Models. Our goal was to understand how host (ponderosa pine, PIPO) recovery and future warming and drought affect the frequency and severity of WPB outbreaks and their C consequences. Our projections suggested that by 2100 the C stored in live PIPO (mean: 1.98 kg C m-2, 95% CI: 1.74–2.21 kg C m-2) will not return to levels that occurred before the 2012–2015 drought (2012: ∼2.30 kg C m-2) due to future WPB outbreaks. However, differences in climate models indicate a wide range of possible WPB outbreak frequencies and severities. Our results suggest that total plot basal area is the most significant factor in the mortality rate of PIPO by WPB in any given year, followed by drought severity and temperature. High levels of host basal area, higher temperature, and extreme drought all contribute to the frequency and severity of future WPB outbreaks. While PIPO basal area may decline under increased drought and warming, limiting high-stand basal area (>60 m2 ha-1) may reduce the severity of future WPB outbreaks in the Sierra Nevada.}, journal={FRONTIERS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE}, author={Robbins, Zachary J. and Xu, Chonggang and Jonko, Alex and Chitra-Tarak, Rutuja and Fettig, Christopher J. and Costanza, Jennifer and Mortenson, Leif A. and Aukema, Brian H. and Kueppers, Lara M. and Scheller, Robert M.}, year={2023}, month={Mar} }
 @article{peptenatu_andronache_ahammer_radulovic_costanza_jelinek_ieva_koyama_grecu_gruia_et al._2023, title={Correction to: A new fractal index to classify forest fragmentation and disorder}, url={https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-023-01781-0}, DOI={10.1007/s10980-023-01781-0}, journal={Landscape Ecology}, author={Peptenatu, Daniel and Andronache, Ion and Ahammer, Helmut and Radulovic, Marko and Costanza, Jennifer K. and Jelinek, Herbert F. and Ieva, Antonio Di and Koyama, Kohei and Grecu, Alexandra and Gruia, Andreea Karina and et al.}, year={2023}, month={Dec} }
 @article{caldwell_martin_vose_baker_warziniack_costanza_frey_nehra_mihiar_2023, title={Forested watersheds provide the highest water quality among all land cover types, but the benefit of this ecosystem service depends on landscape context}, volume={882}, ISSN={["1879-1026"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163550}, abstractNote={Conversion of natural land cover can degrade water quality in water supply watersheds and increase treatment costs for Public Water Systems (PWSs), but there are few studies that have fully evaluated land cover and water quality relationships in mixed use watersheds across broad hydroclimatic settings. We related upstream land cover (forest, other natural land covers, development, and agriculture) to observed and modeled water quality across the southeastern US and specifically at 1746 PWS drinking water intake facilities. While there was considerable complexity and variability in the relationship between land cover and water quality, results suggest that Total Nitrogen (TN), Total Phosphorus (TP) and Suspended Sediment (SS) concentrations decrease significantly with increasing forest cover, and increase with increasing developed or agricultural cover. Catchments with dominant (>90 %) agricultural land cover had the greatest export rates for TN, TP, and SS based on SPARROW model estimates, followed by developed-dominant, then forest- and other-natural-dominant catchments. Variability in modeled TN, TP, and SS export rates by land cover type was driven by variability in natural background sources and catchment characteristics that affected water quality even in forest-dominated catchments. Both intake setting (i.e., run-of-river or reservoir) and upstream land cover were important determinants of water quality at PWS intakes. Of all PWS intakes, 15 % had high raw water quality, and 85 % of those were on reservoirs. Of the run-of-river intakes with high raw water quality, 75 % had at least 50 % forest land cover upstream. In addition, PWS intakes obtaining surface water supply from smaller upstream catchments may experience the largest losses of natural land cover based on projections of land cover in 2070. These results illustrate the complexity and variability in the relationship between land cover and water quality at broad scales, but also suggest that forest conservation can enhance the resilience of drinking water supplies.}, journal={SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT}, author={Caldwell, Peter V. and Martin, Katherine L. and Vose, James M. and Baker, Justin S. and Warziniack, Travis W. and Costanza, Jennifer K. and Frey, Gregory E. and Nehra, Arpita and Mihiar, Christopher M.}, year={2023}, month={Jul} }
 @article{costanza_koch_reeves_2023, title={Future exposure of forest ecosystems to multi‐year drought in the United States}, url={https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4525}, DOI={10.1002/ecs2.4525}, abstractNote={Abstract}, journal={Ecosphere}, author={Costanza, Jennifer K. and Koch, Frank H. and Reeves, Matthew C.}, year={2023}, month={May} }
 @article{riitters_costanza_coulston_vogt_schleeweis_2023, title={Interpreting image texture metrics applied to landscape gradient data}, url={https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-023-01705-y}, DOI={10.1007/s10980-023-01705-y}, journal={Landscape Ecology}, author={Riitters, Kurt and Costanza, Jennifer K. and Coulston, John W. and Vogt, Peter and Schleeweis, Karen}, year={2023}, month={Sep} }
 @article{pau_griffith_zampieri_costanza_2023, title={Longleaf pine savannas reveal biases in current understanding of savanna biogeography}, url={https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13747}, DOI={10.1111/geb.13747}, abstractNote={Abstract}, journal={Global Ecology and Biogeography}, author={Pau, Stephanie and Griffith, Daniel M. and Zampieri, Nicole E. and Costanza, Jennifer}, year={2023}, month={Nov} }
 @article{atkins_costanza_dahlin_dannenberg_elmore_fitzpatrick_hakkenberg_hardiman_kamoske_larue_et al._2023, title={Scale dependency of lidar‐derived forest structural diversity}, url={https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.14040}, DOI={10.1111/2041-210X.14040}, abstractNote={Abstract}, journal={Methods in Ecology and Evolution}, author={Atkins, Jeff W. and Costanza, Jennifer and Dahlin, Kyla M. and Dannenberg, Matthew P. and Elmore, Andrew J. and Fitzpatrick, Matthew C. and Hakkenberg, Christopher R. and Hardiman, Brady S. and Kamoske, Aaron and LaRue, Elizabeth A. and et al.}, year={2023}, month={Feb} }
 @article{inglis_vukomanovic_costanza_singh_2022, title={From viewsheds to viewscapes: Trends in landscape visibility and visual quality research}, volume={224}, ISSN={["1872-6062"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.lurbplan.2022.104424}, journal={LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING}, author={Inglis, Nicole C. and Vukomanovic, Jelena and Costanza, Jennifer and Singh, Kunwar K.}, year={2022}, month={Aug} }
 @article{inglis_vukomanovic_costanza_singh_2022, title={From viewsheds to viewscapes: Trends in landscape visibility and visual quality research}, volume={224}, ISSN={["1872-6062"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.landurbplan.2022.104424}, abstractNote={The study of visibility and visual quality (VVQ) spans scientific disciplines, methods, frameworks and eras. Recent advances in line-of-sight computation and geographic information systems (GIS) have propelled VVQ research into the realm of high performance computing via a cache of geospatial tools accessible to a broad range of research disciplines. However, in the disciplines that use VVQ analysis most (archaeology, architecture, geosciences and planning), methods and terminology can vary markedly, which may encumber interdisciplinary progress. A multidisciplinary systematic review of past VVQ research is timely to assess past efforts and effectively advance the field. In this study, we summarize the state of VVQ research in a systematic review of peer-reviewed publications spanning the past two decades. Our search yielded 528 total studies, 176 of which we reviewed in depth. VVQ analysis in peer-reviewed research increased 21-fold in the last 20 years, applied primarily in archaeology and natural resources research. We found that methods, tools and study designs varied across disciplines and scales. Research disproportionately represented the Global North and primarily employed medium resolution bare-earth elevation models, despite their known limitations. We propose a framework for standardized reporting of methods that emphasizes cross-disciplinary collaboration to propel visibility research into the future.}, journal={LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING}, author={Inglis, Nicole C. and Vukomanovic, Jelena and Costanza, Jennifer and Singh, Kunwar K.}, year={2022}, month={Aug} }
 @article{smith_dahlin_record_costanza_wilson_zarnetske_2021, title={The geodiv r package: Tools for calculating gradient surface metrics}, url={https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.13677}, DOI={10.1111/2041-210X.13677}, abstractNote={Abstract}, journal={Methods in Ecology and Evolution}, author={Smith, Annie C. and Dahlin, Kyla M. and Record, Sydne and Costanza, Jennifer K. and Wilson, Adam M. and Zarnetske, Phoebe L.}, year={2021}, month={Nov} }
 @article{read_zarnetske_record_dahlin_costanza_finley_gaddis_grady_hobi_latimer_et al._2020, title={Beyond counts and averages: relating geodiversity to dimensions of biodiversity}, volume={29}, url={https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13061}, DOI={10.1111/geb.13061}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={4 (April 2020)}, journal={Global Ecology and Biogeography}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Read, Q.D. and Zarnetske, P.L. and Record, S. and Dahlin, K.M. and Costanza, J.K. and Finley, A.O. and Gaddis, K.D. and Grady, J.M. and Hobi, M. and Latimer, A.M. and et al.}, editor={Bahn, VolkerEditor}, year={2020}, month={Jan}, pages={696–710} }
 @article{riitters_schleeweis_costanza_2020, title={Forest Area Change in the Shifting Landscape Mosaic of the Continental United States from 2001 to 2016}, volume={9}, url={https://doi.org/10.3390/land9110417}, DOI={10.3390/land9110417}, abstractNote={The landscape context (i.e., anthropogenic setting) of forest change partly determines the social-ecological outcomes of the change. Furthermore, forest change occurs within, is constrained by, and contributes to a dynamic landscape context. We illustrate how information about local landscape context can be incorporated into regional assessments of forest area change. We examined the status and change of forest area in the continental United States from 2001 to 2016, quantifying landscape context by using a landscape mosaic classification that describes the dominance and interface (i.e., juxtaposition) of developed and agriculture land in relation to forest and other land. The mosaic class changed for five percent of total land area and three percent of total forest area. The least stable classes were those comprising the developed interface. Forest loss rates were highest in developed-dominated landscapes, but the forest area in those landscapes increased by 18 percent as the expansion of developed landscapes assimilated more forest area than was lost from earlier developed landscapes. Conversely, forest loss rates were lowest in agriculture-dominated landscapes where there was a net loss of five percent of forest area, even as the area of those landscapes also increased. Exposure of all land to nearby forest removal, fire, and stress was highest in natural-dominated landscapes, while exposure to nearby increases in developed and agriculture land was highest in developed- and agriculture-dominated landscapes. We discuss applications of our approach for mapping, monitoring, and modeling landscape and land use change.}, number={11}, journal={Land}, publisher={MDPI AG}, author={Riitters, Kurt and Schleeweis, Karen and Costanza, Jennifer}, year={2020}, month={Oct}, pages={417} }
 @article{costanza_watling_sutherland_belyea_dilkina_cayton_bucklin_romanach_haddad_2020, title={Preserving connectivity under climate and land-use change: No one-size-fits-all approach for focal species in similar habitats}, volume={248}, ISSN={["1873-2917"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.biocon.2020.108678}, abstractNote={Habitat connectivity is essential for maintaining populations of wildlife species, especially as climate changes. Knowledge about the fate of existing habitat networks in a changing climate and in light of land-use change is critical for determining which types of conservation actions must be taken to maintain those networks. However, information is lacking about how multiple focal species that use similar habitats overlap in the degree and geographic patterns of threats to linkages among currently suitable habitat patches. We sought to address that gap. We assessed climate change threat to existing linkages in the southeastern United States for three wildlife species that use similar habitats but differ in the degree to which their ranges are limited by climate, habitat specificity, and dispersal ability. Linkages for the specialist species (timber rattlesnake), whose range is climate-restricted, were more likely to serve as climate change refugia – that is, they were more likely to be climate-stable – by the middle of the 21st century. This contrasts with the two more generalist species (Rafinesque's big-eared bat and American black bear), whose linkages were threatened by climate change and thus required adaptation measures. Further incorporation of projected land-use change and current protection status for important linkages narrows down our recommended conservation actions for each species. Our results highlight the surprising ways in which even species that use similar habitats will experience differences in the degree and geographic patterns of threats to connectivity. Taking action before these projected changes occur will be critical for successful conservation.}, journal={BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION}, author={Costanza, Jennifer K. and Watling, James and Sutherland, Ron and Belyea, Curtis and Dilkina, Bistra and Cayton, Heather and Bucklin, David and Romanach, Stephanie S. and Haddad, Nick M.}, year={2020}, month={Aug} }
 @inbook{record_dahlin_zarnetske_read_malone_gaddis_grady_costanza_hobi_latimer_et al._2020, place={Cham, Switzerland}, series={Springer Remote Sensing/Photogrammetry Series}, title={Remote sensing of geodiversity as a link to biodiversity}, url={https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-33157-3_10}, DOI={10.1007/978-3-030-33157-3_10}, abstractNote={Abstract}, booktitle={Remote Sensing of Plant Biodiversity}, publisher={Springer}, author={Record, S. and Dahlin, K.M. and Zarnetske, P.L. and Read, Q.D. and Malone, S.L. and Gaddis, K.D. and Grady, J.M. and Costanza, J.K. and Hobi, M.L. and Latimer, A.M. and et al.}, editor={Cavender-Bares, J. and Gamon, J.A. and Townsend, P.A.Editors}, year={2020}, pages={225–253}, collection={Springer Remote Sensing/Photogrammetry Series} }
 @article{costanza_riitters_vogt_wickham_2019, title={Describing and analyzing landscape patterns: where are we now, and where are we going?}, volume={34}, ISSN={0921-2973 1572-9761}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10980-019-00889-6}, DOI={10.1007/s10980-019-00889-6}, number={9}, journal={Landscape Ecology}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Costanza, Jennifer K. and Riitters, Kurt and Vogt, Peter and Wickham, James}, year={2019}, month={Aug}, pages={2049–2055} }
 @book{record_zarnetske_dahlin_malone_costanza_2019, title={Detecting biodiversity across scales and data sources}, journal={NASA Biological Diversity and Ecological Forecasting Programs: White paper on important questions}, author={Record, S. and Zarnetske, Z. and Dahlin, K. and Malone, S. and Costanza, J.K.}, year={2019} }
 @article{costanza_terando_2019, title={Landscape Connectivity Planning for Adaptation to Future Climate and Land-Use Change}, volume={4}, ISSN={2364-494X}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/S40823-019-0035-2}, DOI={10.1007/s40823-019-0035-2}, number={1}, journal={Current Landscape Ecology Reports}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Costanza, Jennifer K. and Terando, Adam J.}, year={2019}, month={Jan}, pages={1–13} }
 @book{costanza_2019, place={East Lansing, Michigan}, title={Review: climate change and land-use change as the biggest challenges to future connectivity}, url={https://conservationcorridor.org/digests/2019/02/review-climate-change-and-land-use-change-as-the-biggest-challenges-to-future-connectivity/}, institution={Conservation Corridor}, author={Costanza, J.K.}, year={2019}, month={Feb} }
 @article{riitters_costanza_2019, title={The landscape context of family forests in the United States: Anthropogenic interfaces and forest fragmentation from 2001 to 2011}, volume={188}, ISSN={0169-2046}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2018.04.001}, DOI={10.1016/j.landurbplan.2018.04.001}, abstractNote={The capacity of family owned forests to sustain ecological goods and services depends on the landscape context within which that forest occurs. For example, the expansion of a nearby urban area results in the loss of adjacent forest, which threatens the ability of the family forest to sustain interior forest habitat. Our objective was to assess the status and change of the landscape context of family forests across the conterminous United States, as measured by interior forest status and anthropogenic (urban and agricultural) interface zones. We combined circa 2005 forest inventory data with land cover maps from 2001 and 2011 to evaluate changes in the vicinity of 132,497 inventory locations. We compared family forests to nonfamily private and public forests, and evaluated regional conservation opportunities for family forests. Between 2001 and 2011, 1.5% of family forest area experienced a change of anthropogenic interface zone, and 46% was in an interface zone by 2011. During that same time, there was a net decrease of 9.7% of family owned interior forest area, such that 27% of family forest was interior forest by 2011. The rates of forest fragmentation and occurrence in anthropogenic interface zones were higher for family and nonfamily private forests than for public forest, yet family forests contained 31% of the extant interior forest area. The geography of landscape patterns suggested where aggregate actions by family forest owners may have relatively large regional effects upon extant interior forest conditions.}, journal={Landscape and Urban Planning}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Riitters, Kurt and Costanza, Jennifer}, year={2019}, month={Aug}, pages={64–71} }
 @article{zarnetske_read_record_gaddis_pau_hobi_malone_costanza_m. dahlin_latimer_et al._2019, title={Towards connecting biodiversity and geodiversity across scales with satellite remote sensing}, volume={28}, ISSN={1466-822X 1466-8238}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/geb.12887}, DOI={10.1111/geb.12887}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={5}, journal={Global Ecology and Biogeography}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Zarnetske, Phoebe L. and Read, Quentin D. and Record, Sydne and Gaddis, Keith D. and Pau, Stephanie and Hobi, Martina L. and Malone, Sparkle L. and Costanza, Jennifer and M. Dahlin, Kyla and Latimer, Andrew M. and et al.}, editor={Gillespie, ThomasEditor}, year={2019}, month={Feb}, pages={548–556} }
 @book{latimer_costanza_malone_dahlin_record_ollinger_zarnetske_wilson_finley_2019, title={Using remotely sensed data to predict ecosystem vulnerability to state change}, journal={NASA Biological Diversity and Ecological Forecasting Programs: White papers on important questions}, author={Latimer, A. and Costanza, J.K. and Malone, S. and Dahlin, K. and Record, S. and Ollinger, S. and Zarnetske, Z. and Wilson, A.M. and Finley, A.O.}, year={2019} }
 @article{costanza_faber-langendoen_coulston_wear_2018, title={Classifying forest inventory data into species-based forest community types at broad extents: exploring tradeoffs among supervised and unsupervised approaches}, volume={5}, ISSN={2197-5620}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s40663-017-0123-x}, DOI={10.1186/s40663-017-0123-x}, abstractNote={Knowledge of the different kinds of tree communities that currently exist can provide a baseline for assessing the ecological attributes of forests and monitoring future changes. Forest inventory data can facilitate the development of this baseline knowledge across broad extents, but they first must be classified into forest community types. Here, we compared three alternative classifications across the United States using data from over 117,000 U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plots. Each plot had three forest community type labels: (1) “FIA” types were assigned by the FIA program using a supervised method; (2) “USNVC” types were assigned via a key based on the U.S. National Vegetation Classification; (3) “empirical” types resulted from unsupervised clustering of tree species information. We assessed the degree to which analog classes occurred among classifications, compared indicator species values, and used random forest models to determine how well the classifications could be predicted using environmental variables. The classifications generated groups of classes that had broadly similar distributions, but often there was no one-to-one analog across the classifications. The longleaf pine forest community type stood out as the exception: it was the only class with strong analogs across all classifications. Analogs were most lacking for forest community types with species that occurred across a range of geographic and environmental conditions, such as loblolly pine types. Indicator species metrics were generally high for the USNVC, suggesting that USNVC classes are floristically well-defined. The empirical classification was best predicted by environmental variables. The most important predictors differed slightly but were broadly similar across all classifications, and included slope, amount of forest in the surrounding landscape, average minimum temperature, and other climate variables. The classifications have similarities and differences that reflect their differing approaches and objectives. They are most consistent for forest community types that occur in a relatively narrow range of environmental conditions, and differ most for types with wide-ranging tree species. Environmental variables at a variety of scales were important for predicting all classifications, though strongest for the empirical and FIA, suggesting that each is useful for studying how forest communities respond to of multi-scale environmental processes, including global change drivers.}, number={1}, journal={Forest Ecosystems}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Costanza, Jennifer K. and Faber-Langendoen, Don and Coulston, John W. and Wear, David N.}, year={2018}, month={Feb} }
 @inbook{peet_platt_costanza_2018, place={Washington, D.C., USA}, title={Fire-Maintained Pine Savannas and Woodlands of the Southeastern United States Coastal Plain}, ISBN={9781610918916}, booktitle={Ecology and Recovery of Eastern Old-Growth Forests}, publisher={Island Press}, author={Peet, R.K. and Platt, W.J. and Costanza, J.K.}, editor={Barton, A. and Keeton, W.Editors}, year={2018}, pages={39–62} }
 @article{costanza_2018, title={Newly revised & digitized range map of southeastern pine savannas and woodlands}, url={https://www.southatlanticlcc.org/2018/08/01/newly-revised-digitized-range-map-of-southeastern-pine-savannas-and-woodlands/}, journal={South Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative Newsletter}, author={Costanza, J.K.}, year={2018}, month={Aug} }
 @book{costanza_2018, title={Pine Savannas And Woodlands of the Southeastern U.S.}, url={https://salcc.databasin.org/datasets/ca175b93a12249c9ae0212ebbdc6831f/}, DOI={10.6084/m9.figshare.6828848.v1}, abstractNote={Geographic ranges of pine savanna and woodland types in the southeastern U.S. Divisions are based on abundance of overstory trees and ground-layer grasses. <br>Data for Figure 1 in:Peet, R.K., Platt, W.J., Costanza, J.K. 2018. The ecology and management of fire-maintained savanna ecosystems of the Southeastern U.S. Coastal Plain. Chapter in: Ecology and Recovery of Eastern Old-Growth Forests. Editors: Keeton, W., Barton, A., Island Press, Washington, D.C., USA (In press).}, journal={U.S. Geological Survey, ScienceBase Catalog}, institution={South Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative}, author={Costanza, J.K.}, year={2018} }
 @article{costanza_coulston_wear_2017, title={An empirical, hierarchical typology of tree species assemblages for assessing forest dynamics under global change scenarios}, volume={12}, ISSN={1932-6203}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0184062}, DOI={10.1371/journal.pone.0184062}, abstractNote={The composition of tree species occurring in a forest is important and can be affected by global change drivers such as climate change. To inform assessment and projection of global change impacts at broad extents, we used hierarchical cluster analysis and over 120,000 recent forest inventory plots to empirically define forest tree assemblages across the U.S., and identified the indicator and dominant species associated with each. Cluster typologies in two levels of a hierarchy of forest assemblages, with 29 and 147 groups respectively, were supported by diagnostic criteria. Groups in these two levels of the hierarchy were labeled based on the top indicator species in each, and ranged widely in size. For example, in the 29-cluster typology, the sugar maple-red maple assemblage contained the largest number of plots (30,068), while the butternut-sweet birch and sourwood-scarlet oak assemblages were both smallest (6 plots each). We provide a case-study demonstration of the utility of the typology for informing forest climate change impact assessment. For five assemblages in the 29-cluster typology, we used existing projections of changes in importance value (IV) for the dominant species under one low and one high climate change scenario to assess impacts to the assemblages. Results ranged widely for each scenario by the end of the century, with each showing an average decrease in IV for dominant species in some assemblages, including the balsam fir-quaking aspen assemblage, and an average increase for others, like the green ash-American elm assemblage. Future work should assess adaptive capacity of these forest assemblages and investigate local population- and community-level dynamics in places where dominant species may be impacted. This typology will be ideal for monitoring, assessing, and projecting changes to forest communities within the emerging framework of macrosystems ecology, which emphasizes hierarchies and broad extents.}, number={9}, journal={PLOS ONE}, publisher={Public Library of Science (PLoS)}, author={Costanza, Jennifer K. and Coulston, John W. and Wear, David N.}, editor={Zang, RunGuoEditor}, year={2017}, month={Sep}, pages={e0184062} }
 @article{wickham_riitters_vogt_costanza_neale_2017, title={An inventory of continental U.S. terrestrial candidate ecological restoration areas based on landscape context}, volume={25}, ISSN={1061-2971}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/rec.12522}, DOI={10.1111/rec.12522}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={6}, journal={Restoration Ecology}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Wickham, James and Riitters, Kurt and Vogt, Peter and Costanza, Jennifer and Neale, Anne}, year={2017}, month={May}, pages={894–902} }
 @article{buma_costanza_riitters_2017, title={Determining the size of a complete disturbance landscape: multi-scale, continental analysis of forest change}, volume={189}, ISSN={0167-6369 1573-2959}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10661-017-6364-x}, DOI={10.1007/s10661-017-6364-x}, abstractNote={The scale of investigation for disturbance-influenced processes plays a critical role in theoretical assumptions about stability, variance, and equilibrium, as well as conservation reserve and long-term monitoring program design. Critical consideration of scale is required for robust planning designs, especially when anticipating future disturbances whose exact locations are unknown. This research quantified disturbance proportion and pattern (as contagion) at multiple scales across North America. This pattern of scale-associated variability can guide selection of study and management extents, for example, to minimize variance (measured as standard deviation) between any landscapes within an ecoregion. We identified the proportion and pattern of forest disturbance (30 m grain size) across multiple landscape extents up to 180 km 2 . We explored the variance in proportion of disturbed area and the pattern of that disturbance between landscapes (within an ecoregion) as a function of the landscape extent. In many ecoregions, variance between landscapes within an ecoregion was minimal at broad landscape extents (low standard deviation). Gap-dominated regions showed the least variance, while fire-dominated showed the largest. Intensively managed ecoregions displayed unique patterns. A majority of the ecoregions showed low variance between landscapes at some scale, indicating an appropriate extent for incorporating natural regimes and unknown future disturbances was identified. The quantification of the scales of disturbance at the ecoregion level provides guidance for individuals interested in anticipating future disturbances which will occur in unknown spatial locations. Information on the extents required to incorporate disturbance patterns into planning is crucial for that process.}, number={12}, journal={Environmental Monitoring and Assessment}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Buma, Brian and Costanza, Jennifer K and Riitters, Kurt}, year={2017}, month={Nov} }
 @article{riitters_costanza_buma_2017, title={Interpreting multiscale domains of tree cover disturbance patterns in North America}, volume={80}, ISSN={1470-160X}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/J.ECOLIND.2017.05.022}, DOI={10.1016/j.ecolind.2017.05.022}, abstractNote={Spatial patterns at multiple observation scales provide a framework to improve understanding of pattern-related phenomena. However, the metrics that are most sensitive to local patterns are least likely to exhibit consistent scaling relations with increasing extent (observation scale). A conceptual framework based on multiscale domains (i.e., geographic locations exhibiting similar scaling relations) allows the use of sensitive pattern metrics, but more work is needed to understand the actual patterns represented by multiscale domains. The objective of this study was to improve the interpretation of scale-dependent patterns represented by multiscale domains. Using maps of tree cover disturbance covering North American forest biomes from 2000 to 2012, each 0.09-ha location was described by the proportion and contagion of disturbance in its neighborhood, for 10 neighborhood extents from 0.81 ha to 180 km2. A k-means analysis identified 13 disturbance profiles based on the similarity of disturbance proportion and contagion across neighborhood extent. A wall to wall map of multiscale domains was produced by assigning each location (disturbed and undisturbed) to its nearest disturbance profile in multiscale pattern space. The multiscale domains were interpreted as representing two aspects of local patterns – the proximity of a location to disturbance, and the interior-exterior relationship of a location relative to nearby disturbed areas.}, journal={Ecological Indicators}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Riitters, Kurt and Costanza, Jennifer K. and Buma, Brian}, year={2017}, month={Sep}, pages={147–152} }
 @inbook{terando_reich_pacifici_costanza_mckerrow_collazo_2017, title={Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation for Projections of Extremes in Monthly Area Burned Under Climate Change: A Case Study in the Coastal Plain of Georgia, USA}, volume={223}, ISBN={0}, ISSN={2328-8779}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781119028116.ch16}, DOI={10.1002/9781119028116.ch16}, abstractNote={Human-caused climate change is predicted to affect the frequency of hazard-linked extremes. Unusually large wildfires are a type of extreme event that is constrained by climate and can be a hazard to society but also an important ecological disturbance. This chapter focuses on changes in the frequency of extreme monthly area burned by wildfires for the end of the 21st century for a wildfire-prone region in the southeast United States. Predicting changes in area burned is complicated by the large and varied uncertainties in how the climate will change and in the models used to predict those changes. The chapter characterizes and quantifies multiple sources of uncertainty and propagate the expanded prediction intervals of future area burned. It illustrates that while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty in global change science problems is a difficult task, it will be necessary in order to properly assess the risk of increased exposure to these society-relevant events.}, booktitle={NATURAL HAZARD UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT: MODELING AND DECISION SUPPORT}, publisher={John Wiley & Sons, Inc.}, author={Terando, Adam J. and Reich, Brian and Pacifici, Krishna and Costanza, Jennifer and McKerrow, Alexa and Collazo, Jaime A.}, year={2017}, pages={245–256} }
 @article{riitters_wickham_costanza_vogt_2016, title={A global evaluation of forest interior area dynamics using tree cover data from 2000 to 2012}, volume={31}, ISSN={["1572-9761"]}, url={http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-84952715467&partnerID=MN8TOARS}, DOI={10.1007/s10980-015-0270-9}, number={1}, journal={LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY}, publisher={Springer Science \mathplus Business Media}, author={Riitters, Kurt and Wickham, James and Costanza, Jennifer K. and Vogt, Peter}, year={2016}, month={Jan}, pages={137–148} }
 @book{costanza_beck_pyne_terando_rubino_white_collazo_2016, title={Assessing climate-sensitive ecosystems in the southeastern United States}, ISSN={2331-1258}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/ofr20161073}, DOI={10.3133/ofr20161073}, abstractNote={First posted August 11, 2016 For additional information, contact: Director, South Atlantic Water Science Center U.S. Geological Survey 3916 Sunset Ridge Rd Raleigh, N.C. 27607 http://nc.water.usgs.gov/ Climate change impacts ecosystems in many ways, from effects on species to phenology to wildfire dynamics. Assessing the potential vulnerability of ecosystems to future changes in climate is an important first step in prioritizing and planning for conservation. Although assessments of climate change vulnerability commonly are done for species, fewer have been done for ecosystems. To aid regional conservation planning efforts, we assessed climate change vulnerability for ecosystems in the Southeastern United States and Caribbean.First, we solicited input from experts to create a list of candidate ecosystems for assessment. From that list, 12 ecosystems were selected for a vulnerability assessment that was based on a synthesis of available geographic information system (GIS) data and literature related to 3 components of vulnerability—sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity. This literature and data synthesis comprised “Phase I” of the assessment. Sensitivity is the degree to which the species or processes in the ecosystem are affected by climate. Exposure is the likely future change in important climate and sea level variables. Adaptive capacity is the degree to which ecosystems can adjust to changing conditions. Where available, GIS data relevant to each of these components were used. For example, we summarized observed and projected climate, protected areas existing in 2011, projected sea-level rise, and projected urbanization across each ecosystem’s distribution. These summaries were supplemented with information in the literature, and a short narrative assessment was compiled for each ecosystem. We also summarized all information into a qualitative vulnerability rating for each ecosystem.Next, for 2 of the 12 ecosystems (East Gulf Coastal Plain Near-Coast Pine Flatwoods and Nashville Basin Limestone Glade and Woodland), the NatureServe Habitat Climate Change Vulnerability Index (HCCVI) framework was used as an alternative approach for assessing vulnerability. Use of the HCCVI approach comprised “Phase II” of the assessment. This approach uses summaries of GIS data and models to develop a series of numeric indices for components of vulnerability. We incorporated many of the data sources used in Phase I, but added the results of several other data sources, including climate envelope modeling and vegetation dynamics modeling. The results of Phase II were high and low numeric vulnerability ratings for mid-century and the end of century for each ecosystem. The high and low ratings represented the potential range of vulnerability scores owing to uncertainties in future climate conditions and ecosystem effects.Of the 12 ecosystems assessed in the first approach, five were rated as having high vulnerability (Caribbean Coastal Mangrove, Caribbean Montane Wet Elfin Forest, East Gulf Coastal Plain Southern Loess Bluff Forest, Edwards Plateau Limestone Shrubland, and Nashville Basin Limestone Glade and Woodland). Six ecosystems had medium vulnerability, and one ecosystem had low vulnerability. For the two ecosystems assessed with both approaches, vulnerability ratings generally agreed. The assessment concluded by comparing the two approaches, identifying critical research needs, and making suggestions for future ecosystem vulnerability assessments in the Southeast and beyond. Research needs include reducing uncertainty in the degree of climate exposure likely in the future, as well as acquiring more information on how climate might affect biotic interactions and hydrologic processes. Ideally, a comprehensive vulnerability assessment would include both the narrative summaries that resulted from the synthesis in Phase I, as well as a numeric index that incorporates uncertainty as in Phase II.}, number={2016–10732016–1073}, journal={Open-File Report}, institution={US Geological Survey}, author={Costanza, Jennifer and Beck, Scott and Pyne, Milo and Terando, Adam and Rubino, Matthew J. and White, Rickie and Collazo, Jaime}, year={2016} }
 @article{costanza_abt_mckerrow_collazo_2016, title={Bioenergy production and forest landscape change in the southeastern United States}, volume={9}, ISSN={1757-1693}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.12386}, DOI={10.1111/gcbb.12386}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={5}, journal={GCB Bioenergy}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Costanza, Jennifer K. and Abt, Robert C. and McKerrow, Alexa J. and Collazo, Jaime A.}, year={2016}, month={Aug}, pages={924–939} }
 @book{cartwright_costanza_2016, title={Ecosystem vulnerability to climate change in the southeastern United States}, ISSN={2327-6932}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/fs20163052}, DOI={10.3133/fs20163052}, abstractNote={Two recent investigations of climate-change vulnerability for 19 terrestrial, aquatic, riparian, and coastal ecosystems of the southeastern United States have identified a number of important considerations, including potential for changes in hydrology, disturbance regimes, and interspecies interactions. Complementary approaches using geospatial analysis and literature synthesis integrated information on ecosystem biogeography and biodiversity, climate projections, vegetation dynamics, soil and water characteristics, anthropogenic threats, conservation status, sea-level rise, and coastal flooding impacts. Across a diverse set of ecosystems—ranging in size from dozens of square meters to thousands of square kilometers—quantitative and qualitative assessments identified types of climate-change exposure, evaluated sensitivity, and explored potential adaptive capacity. These analyses highlighted key gaps in scientific understanding and suggested priorities for future research. Together, these studies help create a foundation for ecosystem-level analysis of climate-change vulnerability to support effective biodiversity conservation in the southeastern United States.}, journal={Fact Sheet}, institution={US Geological Survey}, author={Cartwright, Jennifer M. and Costanza, Jennifer}, year={2016} }
 @article{tarr_rubino_costanza_mckerrow_collazo_abt_2016, title={Projected gains and losses of wildlife habitat from bioenergy-induced landscape change}, volume={9}, ISSN={1757-1693}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.12383}, DOI={10.1111/gcbb.12383}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={5}, journal={GCB Bioenergy}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Tarr, Nathan M. and Rubino, Matthew J. and Costanza, Jennifer K. and McKerrow, Alexa J. and Collazo, Jaime A. and Abt, Robert C.}, year={2016}, month={Aug}, pages={909–923} }
 @article{costanza_abt_mckerrow_collazo_2015, title={Linking state-and-transition simulation and timber supply models for forest biomass production scenarios}, volume={2}, ISSN={2372-0352}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.3934/environsci.2015.2.180}, DOI={10.3934/environsci.2015.2.180}, abstractNote={We linked state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) with an economics-based timber supply model to examine landscape dynamics in North Carolina through 2050 for three scenarios of forest biomass production. Forest biomass could be an important source of renewable energy in the future, but there is currently much uncertainty about how biomass production would impact landscapes. In the southeastern US, if forests become important sources of biomass for bioenergy, we expect increased land-use change and forest management. STSMs are ideal for simulating these landscape changes, but the amounts of change will depend on drivers such as timber prices and demand for forest land, which are best captured with forest economic models. We first developed state-and-transition model pathways in the ST-Sim software platform for 49 vegetation and land-use types that incorporated each expected type of landscape change. Next, for the three biomass production scenarios, the SubRegional Timber Supply Model (SRTS) was used to determine the annual areas of thinning and harvest in five broad forest types, as well as annual areas converted among those forest types, agricultural, and urban lands. The SRTS output was used to define area targets for STSMs in ST-Sim under two scenarios of biomass production and one baseline, business-as-usual scenario. We show that ST-Sim output matched SRTS targets in most cases. Landscape dynamics results indicate that, compared with the baseline scenario, forest biomass production leads to more forest and, specifically, more intensively managed forest on the landscape by 2050. Thus, the STSMs, informed by forest economics models, provide important information about potential landscape effects of bioenergy production.}, number={2}, journal={AIMS Environmental Science}, publisher={American Institute of Mathematical Sciences (AIMS)}, author={Costanza, Jennifer K. and Abt, Robert C. and McKerrow, Alexa J. and Collazo, Jaime A.}, year={2015}, pages={180–202} }
 @article{costanza_terando_mckerrow_collazo_2015, title={Modeling climate change, urbanization, and fire effects on Pinus palustris ecosystems of the southeastern U.S.}, volume={151}, ISSN={0301-4797}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.12.032}, DOI={10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.12.032}, abstractNote={Managing ecosystems for resilience and sustainability requires understanding how they will respond to future anthropogenic drivers such as climate change and urbanization. In fire-dependent ecosystems, predicting this response requires a focus on how these drivers will impact fire regimes. Here, we use scenarios of climate change, urbanization and management to simulate the future dynamics of the critically endangered and fire-dependent longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) ecosystem. We investigated how climate change and urbanization will affect the ecosystem, and whether the two conservation goals of a 135% increase in total longleaf area and a doubling of fire-maintained open-canopy habitat can be achieved in the face of these drivers. Our results show that while climatic warming had little effect on the wildfire regime, and thus on longleaf pine dynamics, urban growth led to an 8% reduction in annual wildfire area. The management scenarios we tested increase the ecosystem's total extent by up to 62% and result in expansion of open-canopy longleaf by as much as 216%, meeting one of the two conservation goals for the ecosystem. We find that both conservation goals for this ecosystem, which is climate-resilient but vulnerable to urbanization, are only attainable if a greater focus is placed on restoration of non-longleaf areas as opposed to maintaining existing longleaf stands. Our approach demonstrates the importance of accounting for multiple relevant anthropogenic threats in an ecosystem-specific context in order to facilitate more effective management actions.}, journal={Journal of Environmental Management}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Costanza, Jennifer K. and Terando, Adam J. and McKerrow, Alexa J. and Collazo, Jaime A.}, year={2015}, month={Mar}, pages={186–199} }
 @article{wilson_costanza_smith_morisette_2015, title={Second State-and-Transition Simulation Modeling Conference}, volume={96}, ISSN={0012-9623}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/0012-9623-96.1.174}, DOI={10.1890/0012-9623-96.1.174}, abstractNote={The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) co-hosted the Second State-and-Transition Simulation Modeling (STSM) Conference, along with The Nature Conservancy, Apex Resource Management Solutions, and AIMS Environmental Science. The conference was held at the USGS Fort Collins Science Center on 16–18 September 2014. Participants came together to share applications and methods for simulating scenarios of environmental change over time and to discuss integrating STSM with climate and ecological models. Users of landscape STSM tools and software, including the most recent software platform, ST-Sim, as well as older software such as VDDT, TELSA, and the Path Landscape Model, were in attendance. The group represented more than 50 ecosystem, land change, reclamation, and conservation scientists from both the United States and Canada discussing recent STSM findings, techniques, and potential uses in landscape modeling. The event included a one-day training session on the use of ST-Sim, the latest generation of STSM freeware, followed by two days of presentations by scientists and land managers on current research applications. This conference was only the second time STSM developers and users have gathered to share their collective knowledge of STSM capabilities and applications for natural resource management and landscape monitoring. Presentations highlighted the breadth of applications of the STSM framework, from local, to regional, to national extents. Topics included modeling land-use and land-cover change, forest and rangeland management, fuels planning, invasive plant management, wetlands management, climate change and habitat modeling, carbon modeling, ecological restoration and reclamation, and the management of wildlife habitat. Dr. Tom Loveland, director of the USGS Land Cover Institute, gave the keynote address, highlighting the evolution over time from land cover mapping to land change science. He stressed the importance of continuous earth observation monitoring for parameterizing models and defining plausible future land change scenarios and projections. Oral presentations began with a discussion of the history and evolution of STSM modeling platforms, their theoretical underpinnings, how they diverge from stationary Markov chain models, and new spatially explicit simulation capabilities and dynamics in ST-Sim. Subsequent talks focused on several overarching themes: (1) model parameterization techniques and tools; (2) historical reconstructions; and (3) scenario-based applications (i.e. climate, policy, mitigation, management scenarios). For model parameterization, talks ranged in focus from the variety of spatial imagery inputs available for use in ST-Sim, developing input data to spatially constrain landscape transitions over time, and downscaling of global gridded data sets for use in regional modeling applications. Presentations on historical reconstructions examined historic and projected carbon storage trends in the United States as well as the range of variability in fire-adapted ecosystems. Scenario-based research included future projections of landscape condition, habitat availability, and species presence under alternative climate and land use futures, to simulating landscape response given different management techniques for invasive species eradication and post-disturbance land reclamation. The final hours of the conference were dedicated to an update on recent ST-Sim software development, and a group-wide discussion on top user-defined priorities for future software improvements. Major recent developments include new parallel processing capabilities, and the ability to initiate software processes from a Python or R command line. The current STSM modeling community yielded the following recommendations for continued development and growth of the ST-Sim modeling platform. Improved user forums to foster a stronger community practice Improved software documentation Ability to document source data directly within the model library Additional community commitment and related software tools to include validation of STSMs A library of STSM models that have been developed by users. During the final discussion, it became clear that ST-Sim has become a “community” modeling software platform; that is, a platform whose development is driven by users. As such, many of the suggestions by the group aimed to improve usability. For example, it was widely agreed that ST-Sim models should be easily transferable and thoroughly documented (i.e., source data to software specifications). Improved visualization of state-and-transition diagrams was also requested, as these diagrams are most commonly used to facilitate stakeholder input in model parameterization and scenario development. Both users and developers agreed that future development of the ST-Sim software would be best suited for interfacing with external modeling frameworks and outputs, rather than directly incorporating features such as hydrologic modeling already available in other software. More details on the meeting program can be found here: http://www.stsm2014.org/. Summary research articles will be published as conference proceedings in the forthcoming special issue of AIMS Environmental Science, an open access journal http://aimspress.com/aimses/ch/index.aspx. A follow-up STSM user conference is being planned for late fall of 2016.}, number={1}, journal={Bulletin of the Ecological Society of America}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Wilson, Tamara and Costanza, Jennifer and Smith, Jim and Morisette, Jeffrey}, year={2015}, month={Jan}, pages={174–175} }
 @article{noss_platt_sorrie_weakley_means_costanza_peet_2014, title={How global biodiversity hotspots may go unrecognized: lessons from the North American Coastal Plain}, volume={21}, ISSN={1366-9516}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12278}, DOI={10.1111/ddi.12278}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={2}, journal={Diversity and Distributions}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Noss, Reed F. and Platt, William J. and Sorrie, Bruce A. and Weakley, Alan S. and Means, D. Bruce and Costanza, Jennifer and Peet, Robert K.}, editor={Richardson, DavidEditor}, year={2014}, month={Nov}, pages={236–244} }
 @article{terando_costanza_belyea_dunn_mckerrow_collazo_2014, title={The Southern Megalopolis: Using the Past to Predict the Future of Urban Sprawl in the Southeast U.S}, volume={9}, ISSN={1932-6203}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0102261}, DOI={10.1371/journal.pone.0102261}, abstractNote={The future health of ecosystems is arguably as dependent on urban sprawl as it is on human-caused climatic warming. Urban sprawl strongly impacts the urban ecosystems it creates and the natural and agro-ecosystems that it displaces and fragments. Here, we project urban sprawl changes for the next 50 years for the fast-growing Southeast U.S. Previous studies have focused on modeling population density, but the urban extent is arguably as important as population density per se in terms of its ecological and conservation impacts. We develop simulations using the SLEUTH urban growth model that complement population-driven models but focus on spatial pattern and extent. To better capture the reach of low-density suburban development, we extend the capabilities of SLEUTH by incorporating street-network information. Our simulations point to a future in which the extent of urbanization in the Southeast is projected to increase by 101% to 192%. Our results highlight areas where ecosystem fragmentation is likely, and serve as a benchmark to explore the challenging tradeoffs between ecosystem health, economic growth and cultural desires.}, number={7}, journal={PLoS ONE}, publisher={Public Library of Science (PLoS)}, author={Terando, Adam J. and Costanza, Jennifer and Belyea, Curtis and Dunn, Robert R. and McKerrow, Alexa and Collazo, Jaime A.}, editor={Layman, Craig A.Editor}, year={2014}, month={Jul}, pages={e102261} }
 @article{costanza_weiss_moody_2013, title={Examining the knowing–doing gap in the conservation of a fire-dependent ecosystem}, volume={158}, ISSN={0006-3207}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2012.08.025}, DOI={10.1016/j.biocon.2012.08.025}, abstractNote={Scientifically informed conservation goals do not always align with what is accomplished in practice, leading to the so-called “knowing–doing gap”. One reason why the knowing–doing gap exists may be that scientific recommendations often do not account for the “real-world” social context of conservation. The social context may be particularly important for ecosystem restoration involving prescribed burning. In the longleaf pine ecosystem, scientists and conservationists have called for large-scale restoration using prescribed burning; however, recent levels of burning may be insufficient to accomplish restoration. We studied the knowing–doing gap in the longleaf pine ecosystem by investigating where recent burns had been conducted. We used spatio-temporal logistic regression to relate recent burning in the Onslow Bight, North Carolina, to site and landscape attributes that burn practitioners there had previously said were important. Our results show that prescribed burns were preferentially placed on high-quality sites rather than on degraded sites, suggesting a knowing–doing gap in longleaf pine conservation in which burning is not used for restoration. In addition, sites that had not been burned for at least 4 years showed an increased probability of burning as distance from development increased, suggesting that sites with high fuel loads near development were not likely to be burned. Finding ways to encourage burning on degraded sites near development, such as rewarding practitioners for successfully conducting difficult burns, would help narrow the knowing–doing gap in conservation of this and other fire-dependent ecosystems.}, journal={Biological Conservation}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Costanza, Jennifer K. and Weiss, Jack and Moody, Aaron}, year={2013}, month={Feb}, pages={107–115} }
 @article{costanza_2013, title={Focal Species for Connectivity Analysis in the Southeast}, url={https://www.southatlanticlcc.org/2013/01/07/focal-species-for-connectivity-analysis-in-the-southeast/}, journal={South Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative Newsletter}, author={Costanza, J.K.}, year={2013}, month={Jan} }
 @article{costanza_hulcr_koch_earnhardt_mckerrow_dunn_collazo_2012, title={Simulating the effects of the southern pine beetle on regional dynamics 60 years into the future}, volume={244}, ISSN={0304-3800}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.06.037}, DOI={10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.06.037}, abstractNote={We developed a spatially explicit model that simulated future southern pine beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis, SPB) dynamics and pine forest management for a real landscape over 60 years to inform regional forest management. The SPB has a considerable effect on forest dynamics in the Southeastern United States, especially in loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) stands that are managed for timber production. Regional outbreaks of SPB occur in bursts resulting in elimination of entire stands and major economic loss. These outbreaks are often interspersed with decades of inactivity, making long-term modeling of SPB dynamics challenging. Forest management techniques, including thinning, have proven effective and are often recommended as a way to prevent SPB attack, yet the robustness of current management practices to long-term SPB dynamics has not been examined. We used data from previously documented SPB infestations and forest inventory data to model four scenarios of SPB dynamics and pine forest management. We incorporated two levels of beetle pressure: a background low level, and a higher level in which SPB had the potential to spread among pine stands. For each level of beetle pressure, we modeled two scenarios of forest management: one assuming forests would be managed continuously via thinning, and one with a reduction in thinning. For our study area in Georgia, Florida, and Alabama, we found that beetle pressure and forest management both influenced the landscape effects of SPB. Under increased SPB pressure, even with continuous management, the area of pine forests affected across the region was six times greater than under baseline SPB levels. However, under high SPB pressure, continuous management decreased the area affected by nearly half compared with reduced management. By incorporating a range of forest and SPB dynamics over long time scales, our results extend previous modeling studies, and inform forest managers and policy-makers about the potential future effects of SPB. Our model can also be used to investigate the effects of additional scenarios on SPB dynamics, such as alternative management or climate change.}, journal={Ecological Modelling}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Costanza, Jennifer K. and Hulcr, Jiri and Koch, Frank H. and Earnhardt, Todd and McKerrow, Alexa J. and Dunn, Rob R. and Collazo, Jaime A.}, year={2012}, month={Oct}, pages={93–103} }
 @article{costanza_moody_2011, title={Deciding Where to Burn: Stakeholder Priorities for Prescribed Burning of a Fire-Dependent Ecosystem}, volume={16}, url={http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-79954486662&partnerID=MN8TOARS}, DOI={10.5751/es-03897-160114}, abstractNote={Multiagency partnerships increasingly work cooperatively to plan and implement fire management. The stakeholders that comprise such partnerships differ in their perceptions of the benefits and risks of fire use or nonuse. These differences inform how different stakeholders prioritize sites for burning, constrain prescribed burning, and how they rationalize these priorities and constraints. Using a survey of individuals involved in the planning and implementation of prescribed fire in the Onslow Bight region of North Carolina, we examined how the constraints and priorities for burning in the longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) ecosystem differed among three stakeholder groups: prescribed burn practitioners from agencies, practitioners from private companies, and nonpractitioners. Stakeholder groups did not differ in their perceptions of constraints to burning, and development near potentially burned sites was the most important constraint identified. The top criteria used by stakeholders to decide where to burn were the time since a site was last burned, and a site's ecosystem health, with preference given to recently burned sites in good health. Differences among stakeholder groups almost always pertained to perceptions of the nonecological impacts of burning. Prescribed burning priorities of the two groups of practitioners, and particularly practitioners from private companies, tended to be most influenced by nonecological impacts, especially through deprioritization of sites that have not been burned recently or are in the wildland-urban interface (WUI). Our results highlight the difficulty of burning these sites, despite widespread laws in the southeast U.S. that limit liability of prescribed burn practitioners. To avoid ecosystem degradation on sites that are challenging to burn, particularly those in the WUI, conservation partnerships can facilitate demonstration projects involving public and private burn practitioners on those sites. In summary, an increased understanding of stakeholder perspectives can provide insight into the potential long-term consequences of current fire management and thus facilitate effective ecosystem conservation.}, number={1}, journal={Ecology and Society}, publisher={Resilience Alliance, Inc.}, author={Costanza, Jennifer K. and Moody, Aaron}, year={2011} }
 @article{costanza_moody_peet_2011, title={Multi-scale environmental heterogeneity as a predictor of plant species richness}, volume={26}, ISSN={0921-2973 1572-9761}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10980-011-9613-3}, DOI={10.1007/s10980-011-9613-3}, number={6}, journal={Landscape Ecology}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Costanza, Jennifer K. and Moody, Aaron and Peet, Robert K.}, year={2011}, month={May}, pages={851–864} }
 @article{costanza_moody_2011, title={Stakeholder priorities for deciding where to burn}, volume={1}, journal={Southern Fire Exchange Research Highlight 2011}, author={Costanza, J.K. and Moody, A.}, year={2011} }
 @article{costanza_earnhardt_terando_mckerrow_2010, place={Moscow, ID, USA}, title={Modeling vegetation dynamics and habitat availability in the southeastern U.S. using GAP data}, number={18}, journal={Gap Analysis Bulletin}, publisher={USGS/BRD/Gap Analysis Program}, author={Costanza, J.K. and Earnhardt, T. and Terando, A. and McKerrow, A.}, editor={Maxwell, J. and Gergely, K. and Aycrigg, J.L.Editors}, year={2010} }
 @article{costanza_oberneufemann_bucher_2009, title={Assessment of LANDFIRE data in the Onslow Bight landscape, North Carolina}, url={http://www.conservationgateway.org/Documents/Assessment%20of%20LANDFIRE%20Data_%20Onslow%20Bight%20Landscape%20North%20Carolina.pdf}, publisher={The Nature Conservancy}, author={Costanza, J.K. and Oberneufemann, K. and Bucher, M.}, year={2009} }
 @book{breckheimer_simon_costanza_milt_moody_bruggeman_2009, title={Bridging the gap: modeling Red-cockaded Woodpecker habitat quality at high resolution and large extent using LiDAR}, institution={Department of Defense}, author={Breckheimer, I. and Simon, M. and Costanza, J.K. and Milt, A. and Moody, A. and Bruggeman, D.}, year={2009} }
 @article{costanza_marcinko_goewert_mitchell_2008, title={Potential geographic distribution of atmospheric nitrogen deposition from intensive livestock production in North Carolina, USA}, volume={398}, ISSN={0048-9697}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2008.02.024}, DOI={10.1016/j.scitotenv.2008.02.024}, abstractNote={To examine the consequences of increased spatial aggregation of livestock production facilities, we estimated the annual production of nitrogen in livestock waste in North Carolina, USA, and analyzed the potential distribution of atmospheric nitrogen deposition from confined animal feeding operations ("CAFO") lagoons. North Carolina is a national center for industrial livestock production. Livestock is increasingly being raised in CAFOs, where waste is frequently held, essentially untreated, in open-air lagoons. Reduced nitrogen in lagoons is volatilized as ammonia (NH(3)), transported atmospherically, and deposited to other ecosystems. The Albemarle-Pamlico Sound, NC, is representative of nitrogen-sensitive coastal waters, and is a major component of the second largest estuarine complex in the U.S. We used GIS to model the area of water in the Sound within deposition range of CAFOs. We also evaluated the number of lagoons within deposition range of each 1 km(2) grid cell of the state. We considered multiple scenarios of atmospheric transport by varying distance and directionality. Modeled nitrogen deposition rates were particularly elevated for the Coastal Plain. This pattern matches empirical data, suggesting that observed regional patterns of reduced nitrogen deposition can be largely explained by two factors: limited atmospheric transport distance, and spatial aggregation of CAFOs. Under our medium-distance scenario, a small portion (roughly 22%) of livestock production facilities contributes disproportionately to atmospheric deposition of nitrogen to the Albemarle-Pamlico Sound. Furthermore, we estimated that between 14-37% of the state receives 50% of the state's atmospheric nitrogen deposition from CAFO lagoons. The estimated total emission from livestock is 134,000 t NH(3) yr(-1), 73% of which originates from the Coastal Plain. Stronger waste management and emission standards for CAFOs, particularly those on the Coastal Plain nearest to sensitive water bodies, may help mitigate negative impacts on aquatic ecosystems.}, number={1-3}, journal={Science of The Total Environment}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Costanza, Jennifer K. and Marcinko, Sarah E. and Goewert, Ann E. and Mitchell, Charles E.}, year={2008}, month={Jul}, pages={76–86} }
 @article{hayes_moody_white_costanza_2006, title={The influence of logging and topography on the distribution of spruce-fir forests near their Southern limits in Great Smoky Mountains National Park, USA}, volume={189}, ISSN={1385-0237 1573-5052}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11258-006-9166-8}, DOI={10.1007/s11258-006-9166-8}, number={1}, journal={Plant Ecology}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Hayes, Matthew and Moody, Aaron and White, Peter S. and Costanza, Jennifer L.}, year={2006}, month={Sep}, pages={59–70} }