@article{wang_perini_keskinocak_smalley_swann_weiss_2023, title={Evaluating the Effectiveness of Potential Interventions for Guinea Worm Disease in Dogs in Chad Using Simulations}, url={https://doi.org/10.1101/2023.05.22.23290350}, DOI={10.1101/2023.05.22.23290350}, abstractNote={ABSTRACT}, author={Wang, Yifan and Perini, Tyler and Keskinocak, Pinar and Smalley, Hannah and Swann, Julie and Weiss, Adam}, year={2023}, month={May} }
 @article{wang_perini_keskinocak_smalley_swann_weiss_2023, title={Evaluating the Effectiveness of Potential Interventions for Guinea Worm Disease in Dogs in Chad Using Simulations}, volume={109}, ISSN={["1476-1645"]}, DOI={10.4269/ajtmh.22-0654}, abstractNote={ABSTRACT.}, number={4}, journal={AMERICAN JOURNAL OF TROPICAL MEDICINE AND HYGIENE}, author={Wang, Yifan and Perini, Tyler and Keskinocak, Pinar and Smalley, Hannah and Swann, Julie and Weiss, Adam}, year={2023}, month={Oct}, pages={835–843} }
 @article{howerton_contamin_mullany_qin_reich_bents_borchering_jung_loo_smith_et al._2023, title={Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty}, volume={14}, ISSN={["2041-1723"]}, DOI={10.1038/s41467-023-42680-x}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={1}, journal={NATURE COMMUNICATIONS}, author={Howerton, Emily and Contamin, Lucie and Mullany, Luke C. and Qin, Michelle and Reich, Nicholas G. and Bents, Samantha and Borchering, Rebecca K. and Jung, Sung-mok and Loo, Sara L. and Smith, Claire P. and et al.}, year={2023}, month={Nov} }
 @article{smalley_keskinocak_swann_hanna_weiss_2023, title={Potential Impact of a Diagnostic Test for Detecting Prepatent Guinea Worm Infections in Dogs}, url={https://doi.org/10.1101/2023.10.30.23297718}, DOI={10.1101/2023.10.30.23297718}, abstractNote={ABSTRACT}, author={Smalley, Hannah and Keskinocak, Pinar and Swann, Julie and Hanna, Christopher and Weiss, Adam}, year={2023}, month={Oct} }
 @article{alizadeh_vahdat_shashaani_swann_ozaltin_2023, title={Risk Score Models for Unplanned Urinary Tract Infection Hospitalization}, url={https://doi.org/10.1101/2023.08.06.23293723}, DOI={10.1101/2023.08.06.23293723}, abstractNote={Abstract}, author={Alizadeh, Nasrin and Vahdat, Kimia and Shashaani, Sara and Swann, Julie L. and Ozaltin, Osman}, year={2023}, month={Aug} }
 @article{dorris_ivy_swann_2022, title={AN APPROACH TO POPULATION SYNTHESIS OF ENGINEERING STUDENTS FOR UNDERSTANDING DROPOUT RISK}, ISSN={["0891-7736"]}, DOI={10.1109/WSC57314.2022.10015440}, abstractNote={Dropping out of STEM remains a critical issue today, and it would be useful for universities to have reliable predictive models to detect students' dropout risks. Generating a synthetic population of the true population could be useful for simulating the system and testing scenarios. We outline an approach for creating a synthetic population of students in STEM and build a microsimulation which simulates students' risk behaviors over time. This process has identified several areas that must be addressed before the synthetic population represents the true population in a simulation.}, journal={2022 WINTER SIMULATION CONFERENCE (WSC)}, author={Dorris, Danika and Ivy, Julie and Swann, Julie}, year={2022}, pages={677–688} }
 @article{rosenstrom_ivy_mayorga_swann_2022, title={COULD EARLIER AVAILABILITY OF BOOSTERS AND PEDIATRIC VACCINES HAVE REDUCED IMPACT OF COVID-19?}, ISSN={["0891-7736"]}, DOI={10.1109/WSC57314.2022.10015236}, abstractNote={The objective is to evaluate the impact of the earlier availability of COVID-19 vaccinations to children and boosters to adults in the face of the Delta and Omicron variants. We employed an agent-based stochastic network simulation model with a modified SEIR compartment model populated with demographic and census data for North Carolina. We found that earlier availability of childhood vaccines and earlier availability of adult boosters could have reduced the peak hospitalizations of the Delta wave by 10% and the Omicron wave by 42%, and could have reduced cumulative deaths by 9% by July 2022. When studied separately, we found that earlier childhood vaccinations reduce cumulative deaths by 2,611 more than earlier adult boosters. Therefore, the results of our simulation model suggest that the timing of childhood vaccination and booster efforts could have resulted in a reduced disease burden and that prioritizing childhood vaccinations would most effectively reduce disease spread.}, journal={2022 WINTER SIMULATION CONFERENCE (WSC)}, author={Rosenstrom, Erik T. and Ivy, Julie S. and Mayorga, Maria E. and Swann, Julie L.}, year={2022}, pages={1092–1103} }
 @article{biddell_johnson_patel_smith_hecht_swann_mayorga_lich_2022, title={Cross-sector Decision Landscape in Response to COVID-19: A Qualitative Analysis of North Carolina Decision-Makers}, volume={3}, url={https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.03.09.22272160}, DOI={10.1101/2022.03.09.22272160}, abstractNote={Abstract}, publisher={Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory}, author={Biddell, Caitlin B. and Johnson, Karl T. and Patel, Mehul D. and Smith, Raymond L. and Hecht, Hillary K. and Swann, Julie L. and Mayorga, Maria E. and Lich, Kristen Hassmiller}, year={2022}, month={Mar} }
 @article{biddell_johnson_patel_smith_hecht_swann_mayorga_lich_2022, title={Cross-sector decision landscape in response to COVID-19: A qualitative network mapping analysis of North Carolina decision-makers}, volume={10}, ISSN={["2296-2565"]}, DOI={10.3389/fpubh.2022.906602}, abstractNote={IntroductionThe COVID-19 pandemic response has demonstrated the interconnectedness of individuals, organizations, and other entities jointly contributing to the production of community health. This response has involved stakeholders from numerous sectors who have been faced with new decisions, objectives, and constraints. We examined the cross-sector organizational decision landscape that formed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in North Carolina.}, journal={FRONTIERS IN PUBLIC HEALTH}, author={Biddell, Caitlin B. B. and Johnson, Karl T. T. and Patel, Mehul D. D. and Smith, Raymond L. L. and Hecht, Hillary K. K. and Swann, Julie L. L. and Mayorga, Maria E. E. and Lich, Kristen Hassmiller}, year={2022}, month={Aug} }
 @article{yildirim_gaynes_keskinocak_pence_swann_2022, title={DIP: Natural history model for major depression with incidence and prevalence}, volume={296}, ISSN={["1573-2517"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jad.2021.09.079}, DOI={10.1016/j.jad.2021.09.079}, abstractNote={Major depression is a treatable disease, and untreated depression can lead to serious health complications. Therefore, prevention, early identification, and treatment efforts are essential. Natural history models can be utilized to make informed decisions about interventions and treatments of major depression.We propose a natural history model of major depression. We use steady-state analysis to study the discrete-time Markov chain model. For this purpose, we solved the system of linear equations and tested the parameter and transition probabilities empirically.We showed that bias in parameters might collectively cause a significant mismatch in a model. If incidence is correct, then lifetime prevalence is 33.2% for females and 20.5% for males, which is higher than reported values. If prevalence is correct, then incidence is .0008 for females and .00065 for males, which is lower than reported values. The model can achieve feasibility if incidence is at low levels and recall bias of the lifetime prevalence is quantified to be 31.9% for females and 16.3% for males.This model is limited to major depression, and patients who have other types of depression are assumed healthy. We assume that transition probabilities (except incidence rates) are correct.We constructed a preliminary model for the natural history of major depression. We determined the lifetime prevalences are underestimated and the average incidence rates may be underestimated for males. We conclude that recall bias needs to be accounted for in modeling or burden estimates, where the recall bias should increase with age.}, journal={JOURNAL OF AFFECTIVE DISORDERS}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Yildirim, Melike and Gaynes, Bradley N. and Keskinocak, Pinar and Pence, Brian W. and Swann, Julie}, year={2022}, month={Jan}, pages={498–505} }
 @article{zhang_mayorga_ivy_lich_swann_2022, title={Modeling the Impact of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Transmission in K-12 Schools}, volume={7}, ISSN={["2381-4683"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.1177/23814683221140866}, DOI={10.1177/23814683221140866}, abstractNote={ Background. The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 spread across the world causing many waves of COVID-19. Children were at high risk of being exposed to the disease because they were not eligible for vaccination during the first 20 mo of the pandemic in the United States. While children 5 y and older are now eligible to receive a COVID-19 vaccine in the United States, vaccination rates remain low despite most schools returning to in-person instruction. Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are important for controlling the spread of COVID-19 in K-12 schools. US school districts used varied and layered mitigation strategies during the pandemic. The goal of this article is to analyze the impact of different NPIs on COVID-19 transmission within K-12 schools. Methods. We developed a deterministic stratified SEIR model that captures the role of social contacts between cohorts in disease transmission to estimate COVID-19 incidence under different NPIs including masks, random screening, contact reduction, school closures, and test-to-stay. We designed contact matrices to simulate the contact patterns between students and teachers within schools. We estimated the proportion of susceptible infected associated with each intervention over 1 semester under the Omicron variant. Results. We find that masks and reducing contacts can greatly reduce new infections among students. Weekly screening tests also have a positive impact on disease mitigation. While self-quarantining symptomatic infections and school closures are effective measures for decreasing semester-end infections, they increase absenteeism. Conclusion. The model provides a useful tool for evaluating the impact of a variety of NPIs on disease transmission in K-12 schools. While the model is tested under Omicron variant parameters in US K-12 schools, it can be adapted to study other populations under different disease settings. }, number={2}, journal={MDM POLICY & PRACTICE}, author={Zhang, Yiwei and Mayorga, Maria E. and Ivy, Julie and Lich, Kristen Hassmiller and Swann, Julie L.}, year={2022} }
 @article{johnson_biddell_hecht_lich_swann_delamater_mayorga_ivy_smith_patel_2022, title={Organizational decision-making during COVID-19: A qualitative analysis of the organizational decision-making system in the United States during COVID-19}, volume={11}, ISSN={["1468-5973"]}, DOI={10.1111/1468-5973.12437}, abstractNote={Abstract}, journal={JOURNAL OF CONTINGENCIES AND CRISIS MANAGEMENT}, author={Johnson, Karl and Biddell, Caitlin B. B. and Hecht, Hillary K. K. and Lich, Kristen H. H. and Swann, Julie and Delamater, Paul and Mayorga, Maria and Ivy, Julie and Smith, Raymond L. L. and Patel, Mehul D. D.}, year={2022}, month={Nov} }
 @article{swann_2022, title={The Role of Leaders in a Pandemic}, url={https://doi.org/10.52750/852299}, DOI={10.52750/852299}, abstractNote={The response to the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the complex systems in which a response takes place, including a global supply chain for critical medical products, a domestic supply chain for consumables like food at risk to major disruptions, and a numerous companies, government agencies, non-profits, healthcare entities, and others playing a role in effective response. Decision makers face limited resources and uncertainty, and they often have different objectives or constraints that drive their decisions. Science can help guide decision making, with methods ranging from game theory models in economics to disease modeling from epidemiology and virology to optimization models from engineering. Scientific advisors in the complex system also must think about how best to communicate in different environments and to different audiences. Julie Swann, Ph. D. will share her story as a scientific advisor on loan to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention during the H1N1 influenza pandemic in 2009-2010 and during the response to COVID-19. She will also talk about the evolution of becoming an advisor to decision makers, and the roles that students have had in various stages of the work.}, author={Swann, Julie}, year={2022}, month={Jun} }
 @article{yildirim_gaynes_keskinocak_pence_swann_2022, title={The cost-effectiveness of depression screening for the general adult population}, volume={303}, ISSN={["1573-2517"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jad.2022.02.044}, DOI={10.1016/j.jad.2022.02.044}, abstractNote={Depression is a treatable disease, and untreated depression can lead to serious health complications and decrease the quality of life. Therefore, prevention, early identification, and treatment efforts are essential. Screening has an essential role in preventive medicine in the general population. Ideally, screening tools detect patients early enough to manage the disease and reduce symptoms. We aimed to determine the cost-effectiveness of routine screening schedules.We used a discrete-time nonstationary Markov model to simulate the progression of depression. We used Monte Carlo techniques to simulate the stochastic model for 20 years or during the lifetime of individuals. Baseline and screening scenario models with screening frequencies of annual, 2-year, and 5-year strategies were compared based on incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER). Monte Carlo (MC) simulation and one-way sensitivity analysis were conducted to manage uncertainties.In the general population, all screening strategies were cost-effective compared to the baseline. However, male and female populations differed based on cost over quality-adjusted life years (QALY). Females had lower ICERs, and annual screening had the highest ICER for females, with 11,134$/QALY gained. In contrast, males had around three times higher ICER, with annual screening costs of 34,065$/QALY gained.We assumed that the screening frequency was not changing at any time during the screening scenario. In our calculations, false-positive cases were not taking into account.Considering the high lifetime prevalence and recurrence rates of depression, detection and prevention efforts can be one critical cornerstone to support required care. Our analysis combined the expected benefits and costs of screening and assessed the effectiveness of screening scenarios. We conclude that routine screening is cost-effective for all age groups of females and young, middle-aged males.}, journal={JOURNAL OF AFFECTIVE DISORDERS}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Yildirim, Melike and Gaynes, Bradley N. and Keskinocak, Pinar and Pence, Brian W. and Swann, Julie}, year={2022}, month={Apr}, pages={306–314} }
 @article{johnson_biddell_lich_swann_delamater_mayorga_ivy_smith_patel_2022, title={Use of Modeling to Inform Decision Making in North Carolina during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Qualitative Study}, url={https://doi.org/10.1177/23814683221116362}, DOI={10.1177/23814683221116362}, abstractNote={ Background. The COVID-19 pandemic has popularized computer-based decision-support models, which are commonly used to inform decision making amidst complexity. Understanding what organizational decision makers prefer from these models is needed to inform model development during this and future crises. Methods. We recruited and interviewed decision makers from North Carolina across 9 sectors to understand organizational decision-making processes during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic ( N = 44). For this study, we identified and analyzed a subset of responses from interviewees ( n = 19) who reported using modeling to inform decision making. We used conventional content analysis to analyze themes from this convenience sample with respect to the source of models and their applications, the value of modeling and recommended applications, and hesitancies toward the use of models. Results. Models were used to compare trends in disease spread across localities, estimate the effects of social distancing policies, and allocate scarce resources, with some interviewees depending on multiple models. Decision makers desired more granular models, capable of projecting disease spread within subpopulations and estimating where local outbreaks could occur, and incorporating a broad set of outcomes, such as social well-being. Hesitancies to the use of modeling included doubts that models could reflect nuances of human behavior, concerns about the quality of data used in models, and the limited amount of modeling specific to the local context. Conclusions. Decision makers perceived modeling as valuable for informing organizational decisions yet described varied ability and willingness to use models for this purpose. These data present an opportunity to educate organizational decision makers on the merits of decision-support modeling and to inform modeling teams on how to build more responsive models that address the needs of organizational decision makers. }, journal={MDM Policy & Practice}, author={Johnson, Karl and Biddell, Caitlin B. and Lich, Kristen Hassmiller and Swann, Julie and Delamater, Paul and Mayorga, Maria and Ivy, Julie and Smith, Raymond L. and Patel, Mehul D.}, year={2022}, month={Jul} }
 @article{hajibabai_hajbabaie_swann_vergano_2022, title={Using COVID-19 Data on Vaccine Shipments and Wastage to Inform Modeling and Decision-Making}, volume={56}, ISSN={0041-1655 1526-5447}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/trsc.2022.1134}, DOI={10.1287/trsc.2022.1134}, abstractNote={ Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, disruptions have been experienced in many supply chains, particularly in personal protective equipment, testing kits, and even essential household goods. Effective vaccines to protect against COVID-19 were approved for emergency use in the United States in late 2020, which led to one of the most extensive vaccination campaigns in history. We continuously collect data on vaccine allocation, shipment and distribution, administration, and inventory in the United States, covering the entire vaccination campaign. In this article, we describe some data sets that we collaborated to obtain. We are publishing the data and making them freely available to researchers, media organizations, and other stakeholders so that others may use the data to develop insights about the distribution and wastage of vaccines during the current pandemic or to provide an informed future pandemic response. This article gives an overview of vaccine distribution logistics in the United States, describes the data we obtain, outlines how they may be accessed and used by others, and describes some high-level analyses demonstrating some aspects of the data (for data collected during January 1, 2021–March 31, 2021). This article also provides directions for future research using the collected data. Our goal is two-fold: (i) We would like the data to be used in many creative ways to inform the current and future pandemic response. (ii) We also want to inspire other researchers to make their data publicly available in a timely manner. }, number={5}, journal={Transportation Science}, publisher={Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS)}, author={Hajibabai, Leila and Hajbabaie, Ali and Swann, Julie and Vergano, Dan}, year={2022}, month={Sep}, pages={1135–1147} }
 @article{pujol_smith_serban_kottke_swann_2021, title={Assessing Health and Wellness Outcomes of Medicaid-Enrolled Infants Born to Adolescent Mothers}, volume={25}, ISSN={["1573-6628"]}, DOI={10.1007/s10995-020-03086-z}, abstractNote={To assess the effect of adolescent birth on the health and wellness of these infants within their first year of life.Our study focused on 2011 Medicaid births nationwide. The study group (infants born to adolescents, aged 10 to 19 at time of birth) was matched with infants born to adults (aged 20 to 44 at time of birth), based on demographics. Statistical tests (proportion test and Poisson test) were used to compare the outcomes of these two groups to determine if differences were significant.The outcomes assessed were: low birth weight (LBW), substance exposure, foster care, health status, infant mortality, emergency department (ED) visits, and wellness visits. Of the 68,562 infant pairs included in the study, we found statistically significant higher rates of LBW (P ≤ 0·005), infant mortality (P = 0·05), and ED visits (P ≤ 0·005) for infants born to adolescents at the 95% confidence interval. The rate of wellness visits for all infants was well below the recommended amount. Additional differences were found at the race/ethnicity and urbanicity levels.Infants born to adolescents had a higher rate of ED visits within the first year of life, however, the increased rates of LBW and mortality for the Medicaid population are not as significant as previous national studies suggest. Analysis of outcomes across stratification helped identify vulnerable populations (i.e. urban infants). Public health programs are urged to examine ED visits in infants born to adolescents among the Medicaid population. Improved health education or phone-based resources could help reduce unnecessary visits and reduce cost.}, number={5}, journal={MATERNAL AND CHILD HEALTH JOURNAL}, author={Pujol, Toyya A. and Smith, Anna and Serban, Nicoleta and Kottke, Melissa and Swann, Julie}, year={2021}, month={May}, pages={821–831} }
 @article{patel_rosenstrom_ivy_mayorga_keskinocak_boyce_hassmiller lich_smith_johnson_delamater_et al._2021, title={Association of Simulated COVID-19 Vaccination and Nonpharmaceutical Interventions With Infections, Hospitalizations, and Mortality}, volume={4}, ISSN={["2574-3805"]}, DOI={10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.10782}, abstractNote={Key Points Question What is the association of COVID-19 vaccine efficacy and coverage scenarios with and without nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) with SARS-CoV-2 infections, hospitalizations, and deaths? Findings A decision analytical model of North Carolina found that removing NPIs while vaccines were distributed resulted in substantial increases in infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. Furthermore, as NPIs were removed, higher vaccination coverage with less efficacious vaccines contributed to a larger reduction in risk of infection compared with more efficacious vaccines at lower coverage. Meaning These findings highlight the need for high COVID-19 vaccine coverage and continued adherence to NPIs before safely resuming many prepandemic activities.}, number={6}, journal={JAMA NETWORK OPEN}, author={Patel, Mehul D. and Rosenstrom, Erik and Ivy, Julie S. and Mayorga, Maria E. and Keskinocak, Pinar and Boyce, Ross M. and Hassmiller Lich, Kristen and Smith, Raymond L., III and Johnson, Karl T. and Delamater, Paul L. and et al.}, year={2021}, month={Jun} }
 @article{zhang_johnson_yu_fujimoto_lich_ivy_keskinocak_mayorga_swann_2021, title={COVID-19 Projections for K12 Schools in Fall 2021: Significant Transmission without Interventions}, volume={8}, url={https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.08.10.21261726}, DOI={10.1101/2021.08.10.21261726}, abstractNote={Abstract}, publisher={Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory}, author={Zhang, Yiwei and Johnson, Karl and Yu, Zhuoting and Fujimoto, Akane B. and Lich, Kristen Hassmiller and Ivy, Julie and Keskinocak, Pinar and Mayorga, Maria and Swann, Julie L.}, year={2021}, month={Aug} }
 @article{yildirim_gaynes_keskinocak_pence_swann_2021, title={DIP: Natural History Model for Major Depression with Incidence and Prevalence}, volume={3}, url={https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.03.11.21253279}, DOI={10.1101/2021.03.11.21253279}, abstractNote={Abstract}, publisher={Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory}, author={Yildirim, Melike and Gaynes, Bradley N and Keskinocak, Pinar and Pence, Brian W and Swann, Julie}, year={2021}, month={Mar} }
 @article{yildirim_griffin_keskinocak_jean c. o'connor_swann_2021, title={Estimating the impact of self-management education, influenza vaccines, nebulizers, and spacers on health utilization and expenditures for Medicaid-enrolled children with asthma}, volume={58}, ISSN={["1532-4303"]}, DOI={10.1080/02770903.2020.1821056}, abstractNote={Abstract Introduction We quantify the effect of a set of interventions including asthma self-management education, influenza vaccination, spacers, and nebulizers on healthcare utilization and expenditures for Medicaid-enrolled children with asthma in New York and Michigan. Methods We obtained patients’ data from Medicaid Analytic eXtract files and evaluated patients with persistent asthma in 2010 and 2011. We used difference-in-difference regression to quantify the effect of the intervention on the probability of asthma-related healthcare utilization, asthma medication, and utilization costs. We estimated the average change in outcome measures from pre-intervention/intervention (2010) to post-intervention (2011) periods for the intervention group by comparing this with the average change in the control group over the same time horizon. Results All of the interventions reduced both utilization and asthma medication costs. Asthma self-management education, nebulizer, and spacer interventions reduced the probability of emergency department (20.8–1.5%, 95%CI 19.7–21.9% vs. 0.5–2.5%, respectively) and inpatient (3.5–0.8%, 95%CI 2.1–4.9% vs. 0.4–1.2%, respectively) utilizations. Influenza vaccine decreased the probability of primary care physician (6–3.5%, 95%CI 4.4–7.6% vs. 1.5–5.5%, respectively) visit. The reductions varied by state and intervention. Conclusions Promoting asthma self-management education, influenza vaccinations, nebulizers, and spacers can decrease the frequency of healthcare utilization and asthma-related expenditures while improving medication adherence.}, number={12}, journal={JOURNAL OF ASTHMA}, author={Yildirim, Melike and Griffin, Paul and Keskinocak, Pinar and Jean C. O'Connor and Swann, Julie L.}, year={2021}, month={Dec}, pages={1637–1647} }
 @article{zhang_yu_fujimoto_keskinocak_swann_2021, title={Impact of Stratified Interventions in University Reopenings}, volume={9}, url={https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.08.30.21262805}, DOI={10.1101/2021.08.30.21262805}, abstractNote={Abstract}, publisher={Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory}, author={Zhang, Yiwei and Yu, Zhuoting and Fujimoto, Akane and Keskinocak, Pinar and Swann, Julie L.}, year={2021}, month={Sep} }
 @article{mele_rosenstrom_ivy_mayorga_patel_swann_2021, title={Mask Interventions in K12 Schools Can Also Reduce Community Transmission in Fall 2021}, volume={9}, url={https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.09.11.21263433}, DOI={10.1101/2021.09.11.21263433}, abstractNote={ABSTRACT}, publisher={Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory}, author={Mele, Jessica and Rosenstrom, Erik and Ivy, Julie and Mayorga, Maria and Patel, Mehul D. and Swann, Julie}, year={2021}, month={Sep} }
 @article{swann_griffin_keskinocak_bieder_yildirim_nurmagambetov_hsu_seeff_singleton_2021, title={Return on investment of self-management education and home visits for children with asthma}, volume={58}, ISSN={["1532-4303"]}, DOI={10.1080/02770903.2019.1690660}, abstractNote={Abstract Objective Priorities of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s 6|18 Initiative include outpatient asthma self-management education (ASME) and home-based asthma visits (home visit) as interventions for children with poorly-controlled asthma. ASME and home visit intervention programs are currently not widely available. This project was to assess the economic sustainability of these programs for state asthma control programs reimbursed by Medicaid. Methods We used a simulation model based on parameters from the literature and Medicaid claims, controlling for regression to the mean. We modeled scenarios under various selection criteria based on healthcare utilization and age to forecast the return on investment (ROI) using data from New York. The resulting tool is available in Excel or Python. Results Our model projected health improvement and cost savings for all simulated interventions. Compared against home visits alone, the simulated ASME alone intervention had a higher ROI for all healthcare utilization and age scenarios. Savings were primarily highest in simulated program participants who had two or more asthma-related emergency department visits or one inpatient visit compared to those participants who had one or more asthma-related emergency department visits. Segmenting the selection criteria by age did not significantly change the results. Conclusions This model forecasts reduced healthcare costs and improved health outcomes as a result of ASME and home visits for children with high urgent healthcare utilization (more than two emergency department visits or one inpatient hospitalization) for asthma. Utilizing specific selection criteria, state based asthma control programs can improve health and reduce healthcare costs.}, number={3}, journal={JOURNAL OF ASTHMA}, author={Swann, Julie L. and Griffin, Paul M. and Keskinocak, Pinar and Bieder, Ian and Yildirim, Fatma Melike and Nurmagambetov, Tursynbek and Hsu, Joy and Seeff, Laura and Singleton, Christa-Marie}, year={2021}, month={Mar}, pages={360–369} }
 @article{yildirim_gaynes_keskinocak_pence_swann_2021, title={THE COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF DEPRESSION SCREENING FOR THE GENERAL ADULT POPULATION}, volume={5}, url={https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.05.07.21256842}, DOI={10.1101/2021.05.07.21256842}, abstractNote={ABSTRACT}, publisher={Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory}, author={Yildirim, Melike and Gaynes, Bradley N and Keskinocak, Pinar and Pence, Brian W and Swann, Julie}, year={2021}, month={May} }
 @article{yu_fujimoto_keskinocak_swann_2021, title={The Impact of COVID-19 Testing on College Campuses*}, url={https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.08.16.21262153}, DOI={10.1101/2021.08.16.21262153}, abstractNote={Abstract}, author={Yu, Zhuoting and Fujimoto, Akane B. and Keskinocak, Pinar and Swann, Julie L.}, year={2021}, month={Aug} }
 @article{patel_rosenstrom_ivy_mayorga_keskinocak_boyce_lich_smith_johnson_swann_2021, title={The Joint Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on Infections, Hospitalizations, and Mortality: An Agent-Based Simulation}, volume={1}, url={https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.12.30.20248888}, DOI={10.1101/2020.12.30.20248888}, abstractNote={Abstract}, publisher={Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory}, author={Patel, Mehul D. and Rosenstrom, Erik and Ivy, Julie S. and Mayorga, Maria E. and Keskinocak, Pinar and Boyce, Ross M. and Lich, Kristen Hassmiller and Smith, Raymond L. and Johnson, Karl T. and Swann, Julie L.}, year={2021}, month={Jan} }
 @article{rosenstrom_mele_ivy_mayorga_patel_lich_delamater_smith_swann_2021, title={Vaccinating Children Against COVID-19 is Essential Prior to the Removal of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions}, url={https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.12.08.21267496}, DOI={10.1101/2021.12.08.21267496}, abstractNote={Abstract}, author={Rosenstrom, Erik and Mele, Jessica and Ivy, Julie and Mayorga, Maria and Patel, Mehul and Lich, Kristen Hassmiller and Delamater, Paul and Smith, Raymond and Swann, Julie L.}, year={2021}, month={Dec} }
 @article{perini_keskinocak_li_ruiz-tiben_swann_weiss_2020, title={Agent-Based Simulation for Seasonal Guinea Worm Disease in Chad Dogs}, volume={103}, ISSN={0002-9637 1476-1645}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.4269/ajtmh.19-0466}, DOI={10.4269/ajtmh.19-0466}, abstractNote={Abstract. The campaign to eradicate dracunculiasis (Guinea worm [GW] disease) and its causative pathogen Dracunculus medinensis (GW) in Chad is challenged by infections in domestic dogs, which far outnumber the dwindling number of human infections. We present an agent-based simulation that models transmission of GW between a shared water source and a large population of dogs. The simulation incorporates various potential factors driving the infections including external factors and two currently used interventions, namely, tethering and larvicide water treatments. By defining and estimating infectivity parameters and seasonality factors, we test the simulation model on scenarios where seasonal patterns of dog infections could be driven by the parasite’s life cycle alone or with environmental factors (e.g., temperature and rainfall) that could also affect human or dog behaviors (e.g., fishing versus farming seasons). We show that the best-fitting model includes external factors in addition to the pathogen’s life cycle. From the simulation, we estimate that the basic reproductive number, R0, is approximately 2.0; our results also show that an infected dog can transmit the infection to 3.6 other dogs, on average, during the month of peak infectivity (April). The simulation results shed light on the transmission dynamics of GWs to dogs and lay the groundwork for reducing the number of infections and eventually interrupting transmission of GW.}, number={5}, journal={The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene}, publisher={American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene}, author={Perini, Tyler and Keskinocak, Pinar and Li, Zihao and Ruiz-Tiben, Ernesto and Swann, Julie and Weiss, Adam}, year={2020}, month={Nov}, pages={1942–1950} }
 @article{rosenstrom_oruc_hupert_ivy_keskinocak_mayorga_swann_2020, title={Brief Report: High-Quality Masks Can Reduce Infections and Deaths in the US}, volume={9}, url={https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.09.27.20199737}, DOI={10.1101/2020.09.27.20199737}, abstractNote={ABSTRACT}, publisher={Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory}, author={Rosenstrom, Erik and Oruc, Buse Eylul and Hupert, Nathaniel and Ivy, Julie and Keskinocak, Pinar and Mayorga, Maria E. and Swann, Julie L.}, year={2020}, month={Sep} }
 @article{yildirim_griffin_keskinocak_jean_swann_2020, title={Estimating the Impact of Self-Management Education, Influenza Vaccines, Nebulizers, and Spacers on Healthcare Utilization and Expenditures for Medicaid-Enrolled Children with Asthma}, volume={9}, url={https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.09.28.20188466}, DOI={10.1101/2020.09.28.20188466}, abstractNote={Introduction}, publisher={Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory}, author={Yildirim, Melike and Griffin, Paul and Keskinocak, Pinar and Jean, O’Connor and Swann, Julie L}, year={2020}, month={Sep} }
 @article{shi_yan_keskinocak_shane_swann_2020, title={The impact of opening dedicated clinics on disease transmission during an influenza pandemic}, volume={15}, ISSN={["1932-6203"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0236455}, DOI={10.1371/journal.pone.0236455}, abstractNote={Dedicated clinics can be established in an influenza pandemic to isolate people and potentially reduce opportunities for influenza transmission. However, their operation requires resources and their existence may attract the worried-well. In this study, we quantify the impact of opening dedicated influenza clinics during a pandemic based on an agent-based simulation model across a time-varying social network of households, workplaces, schools, community locations, and health facilities in the state of Georgia. We calculate performance measures, including peak prevalence and total attack rate, while accounting for clinic operations, including timing and location. We find that opening clinics can reduce disease spread and hospitalizations even when visited by the worried-well, open for limited weeks, or open in limited locations, and especially when the clinics are in operation during times of highest prevalence. Specifically, peak prevalence, total attack rate, and hospitalization reduced 0.07-0.32%, 0.40-1.51%, 0.02-0.09%, respectively, by operating clinics for the pandemic duration. Keywords: Pandemics; Human Influenza; Theoretical Models; Prevalence; Masks; Health Facilities}, number={8}, journal={PLOS ONE}, publisher={Public Library of Science (PLoS)}, author={Shi, Pengyi and Yan, Jia and Keskinocak, Pinar and Shane, Andi L. and Swann, Julie L.}, editor={Kuo, Yong-HongEditor}, year={2020}, month={Aug} }
 @article{swann_shi_yan_keskinocak_shane_2020, title={The impact of opening dedicated clinics on disease transmission during an influenza pandemic}, volume={5}, url={https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.13.20099622}, DOI={10.1101/2020.05.13.20099622}, abstractNote={Dedicated clinics can be established in an influenza pandemic to isolate people and potentially reduce opportunities for influenza transmission. However, their operation requires resources and their existence may attract the worried-well. In this study, we quantify the impact of opening dedicated influenza clinics during a pandemic based on an agent-based simulation model across a time-varying social network of households, workplaces, schools, community locations, and health facilities in the state of Georgia. We calculate performance measures, including peak prevalence and total attack rate, while accounting for clinic operations, including timing and location. We find that opening clinics can reduce disease spread and hospitalizations even when visited by the worried-well, open for limited weeks, or open in limited locations, and especially when the clinics are in operation during times of highest prevalence. Specifically, peak prevalence, total attack rate, and hospitalization reduced 0.07-0.32%, 0.40-1.51%, 0.02-0.09%, respectively, by operating clinics for the pandemic duration.
Keywords: Pandemics; Human Influenza; Theoretical Models; Prevalence; Masks; Health Facilities}, publisher={Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory}, author={Swann, Julie L and Shi, Pengyi and Yan, Jia and Keskinocak, Pinar L and Shane, Andi L}, year={2020}, month={May} }
 @article{pujol_serban_swann_kottke_2019, title={Medicaid Claims for Contraception Among Women With Medical Conditions After Release of the US Medical Eligibility Criteria for Contraceptive Use}, volume={16}, ISSN={1545-1151}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.5888/pcd16.180207}, DOI={10.5888/pcd16.180207}, abstractNote={Introduction The US Medical Eligibility Criteria for Contraceptive Use (MEC) identified 20 medical conditions that increase a woman’s risk for adverse outcomes in pregnancy. MEC recommends that women with these conditions use long-acting, highly effective contraceptive methods. The objective of our study was to examine provision of contraception to women enrolled in Medicaid who had 1 or more of these 20 medical conditions Methods We used Medicaid Analytic Extract claims data to study Medicaid-enrolled women who were of reproductive age in the 2-year period before MEC’s release (2008 and 2009) (N = 442,424) and the 2-year period after its release (2011 and 2012) (N = 533,619) for 14 states. We assessed 2 outcomes: provision of family planning management (FPM) and provision of highest efficacy methods (HEMs) for the entire study population and by health condition. The ratio of the after-MEC rate to the before-MEC rate was used to determine significance in MEC’s uptake. Results Outcomes increased significantly from the before-MEC period to the after-MEC period for both FPM (1.06; lower bound confidence interval [CI], 1.05) and HEM (1.37; lower bound CI, 1.36) for a 1-sided hypothesis test. For the 19 of 20 conditions we were able to test for FPM, contraceptive use increased significantly for 12 conditions, with ratios ranging from 1.05 to 2.14. For the 16 of 20 conditions tested for HEM, contraception use increased significantly for all conditions, with ratios ranging from 1.19 to 2.80. Conclusion Provision of both FPM and HEM increased significantly among women with high-risk health conditions from the before-MEC period (2008 and 2009) to the after-MEC period (2011 and 2012). Health policy makers and clinicians need to continue promotion of effective family planning management for women with high-risk conditions.}, journal={Preventing Chronic Disease}, publisher={Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)}, author={Pujol, Toyya A. and Serban, Nicoleta and Swann, Julie and Kottke, Melissa}, year={2019}, month={Jan} }
 @article{johnson_ngueyep_schechter_serban_swann_2018, title={Does distance to a cystic fibrosis center impact health outcomes?}, volume={53}, ISSN={8755-6863}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ppul.23940}, DOI={10.1002/ppul.23940}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={3}, journal={Pediatric Pulmonology}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Johnson, Ben and Ngueyep, Rodrigue and Schechter, Michael S. and Serban, Nicoleta and Swann, Julie}, year={2018}, month={Jan}, pages={284–292} }
 @article{vlachy_jo_li_ayer_keskinocak_swann_olson_vats_2018, title={Risk Factors for Seizures Among Young Children Monitored With Continuous Electroencephalography in Intensive Care Unit: A Retrospective Study}, volume={6}, ISSN={["2296-2360"]}, DOI={10.3389/fped.2018.00303}, abstractNote={Objective: cEEG is an emerging technology for which there are no clear guidelines for patient selection or length of monitoring. The purpose of this study was to identify subgroups of pediatric patients with high incidence of seizures. Study Design: We conducted a retrospective study on 517 children monitored by cEEG in the intensive care unit (ICU) of a children's hospital. The children were stratified using an age threshold selection method. Using regression modeling, we analyzed significant risk factors for increased seizure risk in younger and older children. Using two alternative correction procedures, we also considered a relevant comparison group to mitigate selection bias and to provide a perspective for our findings. Results: We discovered an approximate risk threshold of 14 months: below this threshold, the seizure risk increases dramatically. The older children had an overall seizure rate of 18%, and previous seizures were the only significant risk factor. In contrast, the younger children had an overall seizure rate of 45%, and the seizures were significantly associated with hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy (HIE; p = 0.007), intracranial hemorrhage (ICH; p = 0.005), and central nervous system (CNS) infection (p = 0.02). Children with HIE, ICH, or CNS infection accounted for 61% of all seizure patients diagnosed through cEEG under 14 months. Conclusions: An extremely high incidence of seizures prevails among critically ill children under 14 months, particularly those with HIE, ICH, or CNS infection.}, journal={FRONTIERS IN PEDIATRICS}, author={Vlachy, Jan and Jo, Mingyoung and Li, Qing and Ayer, Turgay and Keskinocak, Pinar and Swann, Julie and Olson, Larry and Vats, Atul}, year={2018}, month={Oct} }
 @article{li_swann_keskinocak_2018, title={Value of inventory information in allocating a limited supply of influenza vaccine during a pandemic}, volume={13}, ISSN={["1932-6203"]}, DOI={10.1371/journal.pone.0206293}, abstractNote={Objective To understand the value of information on vaccine inventory levels during an influenza pandemic, we propose a simulation study to compare vaccine allocation strategies using: (i) only population information (pro-rata, or population-based, PB), (ii) both population and vaccine inventory information (population and inventory-based, PIB). Methods We adapt an agent-based simulation model to predict the spread of the disease both geographically and temporally. We study PB and PIB when uptake rates vary geographically. The simulation study is done from 2015 to 2017, using population and commuting data from the state of Georgia from the United States census. Findings Compared to PB under reasonable scenarios, PIB reduces the infection attack rate from 23.4% to 22.4%, decreases the amount of leftover inventory from 827 to 152 thousand, and maintains or increases the percentage of vaccinated population. Conclusions Our results indicate the need for greater vaccine inventory visibility in public health supply chains, especially when supply is limited, and uptake rates vary geographically. Such visibility has a potential to decrease the number of infections, help identify locations with low uptake rates and to motivate public awareness efforts.}, number={10}, journal={PLOS ONE}, author={Li, Zihao and Swann, Julie L. and Keskinocak, Pinar}, year={2018}, month={Oct} }
 @inbook{çelik_ergun_keskinocak_soldner_swann_2017, title={Chapter 36: Humanitarian Applications of Supply Chain Optimization}, ISBN={9781611974676 9781611974683}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1137/1.9781611974683.ch36}, DOI={10.1137/1.9781611974683.ch36}, abstractNote={36.1 ▪ IntroductionThe global impact of disaster-related and long-term humanitarian issues has been steadily increasing. Over the last 10 years, an annual average of 106,000 people have been killed in natural disasters, resulting in an annual economic loss of approximately $200 billion [90]. With the growing population and increased urbanization, these effects are expected to increase in the future. Ongoing issues such as hunger; poverty; child mortality; maternal health; spread of HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other infectious diseases; and environmental sustainability contribute to human suffering and economic losses. For example, as of 2013, 25% of under-five-year-old children are malnourished throughout the world [1809], and more than 1.5 million children per year in sub-Saharan Africa die due to neonatal infections [1810]. Disasters can be classified based on the cause (natural, such as a hurricane, versus human-made, such as a terrorist attack), or the onset (sudden-onset, such as an earthquake, versus slow-onset, such as a drought), or predictability (e.g., timing and location of hurricanes may be easier to predict than those of earthquakes). Long-term development and healthcare-related issues differ from disasters in that their causes often cannot be traced back to a specific catastrophic event [418].}, booktitle={Advances and Trends in Optimization with Engineering Applications}, publisher={Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics}, author={Çelik, Melih and Ergun, Özlem and Keskinocak, Pınar and Soldner, Mallory and Swann, Julie}, year={2017}, month={Apr}, pages={479–491} }
 @article{gentili_harati_serban_o'connor_swann_2017, title={Quantifying Disparities in Accessibility and Availability of Pediatric Primary Care across Multiple States with Implications for Targeted Interventions}, volume={53}, ISSN={0017-9124}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1475-6773.12722}, DOI={10.1111/1475-6773.12722}, abstractNote={ObjectiveTo quantify disparities in accessibility and availability of pediatric primary care by modeling interventions across multiple states that compare publicly insured versus privately insured children, and urban versus rural communities.}, number={3}, journal={Health Services Research}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Gentili, Monica and Harati, Pravara and Serban, Nicoleta and O'Connor, Jean and Swann, Julie}, year={2017}, month={Jun}, pages={1458–1477} }
 @article{cao_çelik_ergun_swann_viljoen_2016, title={Challenges in service network expansion: An application in donated breastmilk banking in South Africa}, volume={53}, ISSN={0038-0121}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.seps.2015.10.006}, DOI={10.1016/j.seps.2015.10.006}, abstractNote={Abstract Neonatal infections are the leading cause for neonatal deaths in developing countries, resulting in more than 1.5 million infant fatalities annually. The most effective prevention against neonatal infections is exclusive breastfeeding. However, reasons such as maternal death during birth, maternal illnesses such as HIV and TB-meningitis, and lack of rooming-in facilities prevent the infant to be breastfed by his/her mother. One way to mitigate these infections is by supplying pasteurized donor-expressed breastmilk. In this paper, we consider the network expansion of the donated breastmilk distribution supply chain in South Africa. As with the distribution of most public sector and humanitarian relief goods and services, the transportation of donated breastmilk is hampered by the inherent uncertainty in the environment, and by the fact that in addition to efficient usage of resources, distribution should be made in an equitable manner. We incorporate uncertainty into our models by means of multiple scenarios, which are determined based on different assumptions about population size, HIV prevalence, and status of public health in the country, income, and education. We consider various equity-based objectives and propose rounding-based heuristics to solve these. We focus on two delivery schemes; one which uses out-and-back transportation, and one that makes multiple stops on the delivery route. Using computational experiments, we analyze the trade-offs between the objectives as well as the effects of various public health policies, network expansion budget, and assumptions on supply and demand. We also describe the teaching materials resulting from this paper, which include a case study, a supply/demand estimation tool, and an interactive decision support tool.}, journal={Socio-Economic Planning Sciences}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Cao, Wenwei and Çelik, Melih and Ergun, Özlem and Swann, Julie and Viljoen, Nadia}, year={2016}, month={Mar}, pages={33–48} }
 @article{li_serban_swann_2015, title={An optimization framework for measuring spatial access over healthcare networks}, volume={15}, ISSN={1472-6963}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12913-015-0919-8}, DOI={10.1186/s12913-015-0919-8}, abstractNote={Measurement of healthcare spatial access over a network involves accounting for demand, supply, and network structure. Popular approaches are based on floating catchment areas; however the methods can overestimate demand over the network and fail to capture cascading effects across the system. Optimization is presented as a framework to measure spatial access. Questions related to when and why optimization should be used are addressed. The accuracy of the optimization models compared to the two-step floating catchment area method and its variations is analytically demonstrated, and a case study of specialty care for Cystic Fibrosis over the continental United States is used to compare these approaches. The optimization models capture a patient’s experience rather than their opportunities and avoid overestimating patient demand. They can also capture system effects due to change based on congestion. Furthermore, the optimization models provide more elements of access than traditional catchment methods. Optimization models can incorporate user choice and other variations, and they can be useful towards targeting interventions to improve access. They can be easily adapted to measure access for different types of patients, over different provider types, or with capacity constraints in the network. Moreover, optimization models allow differences in access in rural and urban areas.}, number={1}, journal={BMC Health Services Research}, publisher={Springer Nature}, author={Li, Zihao and Serban, Nicoleta and Swann, Julie L.}, year={2015}, month={Jul} }
 @article{davila-payan_deguzman_johnson_serban_swann_2015, title={Estimating Prevalence of Overweight or Obese Children and Adolescents in Small Geographic Areas Using Publicly Available Data}, volume={12}, ISSN={1545-1151}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.5888/pcd12.140229}, DOI={10.5888/pcd12.140229}, abstractNote={Introduction Interventions for pediatric obesity can be geographically targeted if high-risk populations can be identified. We developed an approach to estimate the percentage of overweight or obese children aged 2 to 17 years in small geographic areas using publicly available data. We piloted our approach for Georgia. Methods We created a logistic regression model to estimate the individual probability of high body mass index (BMI), given data on the characteristics of the survey participants. We combined the regression model with a simulation to sample subpopulations and obtain prevalence estimates. The models used information from the 2001–2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, the 2010 Census, and the 2010 American Community Survey. We validated our results by comparing 1) estimates for adults in Georgia produced by using our approach with estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and 2) estimates for children in Arkansas produced by using our approach with school examination data. We generated prevalence estimates for census tracts in Georgia and prioritized areas for interventions. Results In DeKalb County, the mean prevalence among census tracts varied from 27% to 40%. For adults, the median difference between our estimates and CDC estimates was 1.3 percentage points; for Arkansas children, the median difference between our estimates and examination-based estimates data was 1.7 percentage points. Conclusion Prevalence estimates for census tracts can be different from estimates for the county, so small-area estimates are crucial for designing effective interventions. Our approach validates well against external data, and it can be a relevant aid for planning local interventions for children.}, journal={Preventing Chronic Disease}, publisher={Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)}, author={Davila-Payan, Carlo and DeGuzman, Michael and Johnson, Kevin and Serban, Nicoleta and Swann, Julie}, year={2015}, month={Mar} }
 @article{smalley_keskinocak_swann_hinman_2015, title={Optimized oral cholera vaccine distribution strategies to minimize disease incidence: A mixed integer programming model and analysis of a Bangladesh scenario}, volume={33}, ISSN={0264-410X}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2015.09.088}, DOI={10.1016/j.vaccine.2015.09.088}, abstractNote={In addition to improved sanitation, hygiene, and better access to safe water, oral cholera vaccines can help to control the spread of cholera in the short term. However, there is currently no systematic method for determining the best allocation of oral cholera vaccines to minimize disease incidence in a population where the disease is endemic and resources are limited. We present a mathematical model for optimally allocating vaccines in a region under varying levels of demographic and incidence data availability. The model addresses the questions of where, when, and how many doses of vaccines to send. Considering vaccine efficacies (which may vary based on age and the number of years since vaccination), we analyze distribution strategies which allocate vaccines over multiple years. Results indicate that, given appropriate surveillance data, targeting age groups and regions with the highest disease incidence should be the first priority, followed by other groups primarily in order of disease incidence, as this approach is the most life-saving and cost-effective. A lack of detailed incidence data results in distribution strategies which are not cost-effective and can lead to thousands more deaths from the disease. The mathematical model allows for what-if analysis for various vaccine distribution strategies by providing the ability to easily vary parameters such as numbers and sizes of regions and age groups, risk levels, vaccine price, vaccine efficacy, production capacity and budget.}, number={46}, journal={Vaccine}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Smalley, Hannah K. and Keskinocak, Pinar and Swann, Julie and Hinman, Alan}, year={2015}, month={Nov}, pages={6218–6223} }
 @article{heier stamm_serban_swann_wortley_2015, title={Quantifying and explaining accessibility with application to the 2009 H1N1 vaccination campaign}, volume={20}, ISSN={1386-9620 1572-9389}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10729-015-9338-y}, DOI={10.1007/s10729-015-9338-y}, abstractNote={Accessibility and equity across populations are important measures in public health. This paper is specifically concerned with potential spatial accessibility, or the opportunity to receive care as moderated by geographic factors, and with horizontal equity, or fairness across populations regardless of need. Both accessibility and equity were goals of the 2009 vaccination campaign for the novel H1N1a influenza virus, including during the period when demand for vaccine exceeded supply. Distribution system design can influence equity and accessibility at the local level. We develop a general methodology that integrates optimization, game theory, and spatial statistics to measure potential spatial accessibility across a network, where we quantify spatial accessibility by travel distance and scarcity. We estimate and make inference on local (census-tract level) associations between accessibility and geographic, socioeconomic, and health care infrastructure factors to identify potential inequities in vaccine accessibility during the 2009 H1N1 vaccination campaign in the U.S. We find that there were inequities in access to vaccine at the local level and that these were associated with factors including population density and health care infrastructure. Our methodology for measuring and explaining accessibility leads to policy recommendations for federal, state, and local public health officials. The spatial-specific results inform the development of equitable distribution plans for future public health efforts.}, number={1}, journal={Health Care Management Science}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Heier Stamm, Jessica L. and Serban, Nicoleta and Swann, Julie and Wortley, Pascale}, year={2015}, month={Sep}, pages={76–93} }
 @article{gentili_isett_serban_swann_2015, title={Small-Area Estimation of Spatial Access to Care and Its Implications for Policy}, volume={92}, ISSN={1099-3460 1468-2869}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11524-015-9972-1}, DOI={10.1007/s11524-015-9972-1}, abstractNote={Local or small-area estimates to capture emerging trends across large geographic regions are critical in identifying and addressing community-level health interventions. However, they are often unavailable due to lack of analytic capabilities in compiling and integrating extensive datasets and complementing them with the knowledge about variations in state-level health policies. This study introduces a modeling approach for small-area estimation of spatial access to pediatric primary care that is data "rich" and mathematically rigorous, integrating data and health policy in a systematic way. We illustrate the sensitivity of the model to policy decision making across large geographic regions by performing a systematic comparison of the estimates at the census tract and county levels for Georgia and California. Our results show the proposed approach is able to overcome limitations of other existing models by capturing patient and provider preferences and by incorporating possible changes in health policies. The primary finding is systematic underestimation of spatial access, and inaccurate estimates of disparities across population and across geography at the county level with respect to those at the census tract level with implications on where to focus and which type of interventions to consider.}, number={5}, journal={Journal of Urban Health}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Gentili, Monica and Isett, Kim and Serban, Nicoleta and Swann, Julie}, year={2015}, month={Aug}, pages={864–909} }
 @article{garcia_serban_swann_fitzpatrick_2015, title={The effect of geographic access on severe health outcomes for pediatric asthma}, volume={136}, ISSN={0091-6749}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jaci.2015.01.030}, DOI={10.1016/j.jaci.2015.01.030}, abstractNote={Access to medical care and severe pediatric asthma outcomes vary with geography, but the relationship between them has not been studied.We sought to evaluate the relationship between geographic access and health outcomes for pediatric asthma.The severe outcome measures include emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalizations for children with an asthma diagnosis in Georgia and North Carolina. We quantify asthma prevalence, outcome measures, and factors included in the statistical model using multiple data sources. We calculate geographic access to primary and asthma specialist care using optimization models. We estimate the association between outcomes and geographic access in the presence of other factors using logistic regression. The model is used to project the reduction in severe outcomes with improvement in access.The association between access and outcomes for pediatric asthma depends on the type of outcome measure, type of care, and variations in other factors. The expression of this association is also different for the 2 states. Access to primary care plays a larger role than access to specialist care in explaining Georgia ED visits, whereas the reverse applies for hospitalizations. In North Carolina access to both primary and specialist care are statistically significant in explaining the variability in ED visits.The variation in the association between estimated access and outcomes affects the projected reductions of severe outcomes with access improvement. Thus applying one intervention would not have the same level of improvement across geography. Interventions must be tailored to target regions with the potential to deliver the highest effect to gain maximum benefit.}, number={3}, journal={Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Garcia, Erin and Serban, Nicoleta and Swann, Julie and Fitzpatrick, Anne}, year={2015}, month={Sep}, pages={610–618} }
 @article{griffin_lee_scherrer_swann_2014, title={Balancing investments in federally qualified health centers and Medicaid for improved access and coverage in Pennsylvania}, volume={17}, ISSN={1386-9620 1572-9389}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10729-013-9265-8}, DOI={10.1007/s10729-013-9265-8}, abstractNote={Two common health disparities in the US include a lack of access to care and a lack of insurance coverage. To help address these disparities, healthcare reform will provide $11B to expand Federally Qualified Health Centers (FQHCs) over the next 5 years. In 2014, Medicaid rules will be modified so that more people will become eligible. There are, however, important tradeoffs in the investment in these two programs. We find a balanced investment between FQHC expansion and relaxing Medicaid eligibility to improve both access (by increasing the number of FQHCs) and coverage (by FQHC and Medicaid expansion) for the state of Pennsylvania. The comparison is achieved by integrating multi-objective mathematical models with several public data sets that allow for specific estimations of healthcare need. Demand is estimated based on current access and coverage status in order to target groups to be considered preferentially. Results show that for Pennsylvania, FQHCs are more cost effective than Medicaid if we invest all of the resources in just one policy. However, we find a better investment point balancing those two policies. This point is approximately where the additional expenses incurred from relaxing Medicaid eligibility equals the investment in FQHC expansion.}, number={4}, journal={Health Care Management Science}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Griffin, Paul M. and Lee, Hyunji and Scherrer, Christina and Swann, Julie L.}, year={2014}, month={Jan}, pages={348–364} }
 @article{ekici_keskinocak_swann_2014, title={Modeling Influenza Pandemic and Planning Food Distribution}, volume={16}, ISSN={1523-4614 1526-5498}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/msom.2013.0460}, DOI={10.1287/msom.2013.0460}, abstractNote={ Based on the recent incidents of H5N1, H1N1, and influenza pandemics in history (1918, 1957, and 1968) experts believe that a future influenza pandemic is inevitable and likely imminent. Although the severity of influenza pandemics vary, evidence suggests that an efficient and rapid response is crucial for mitigating morbidity, mortality, and costs to society. Hence, preparing for a potential influenza pandemic is a high priority of governments at all levels (local, state, federal), nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and companies. In a severe pandemic, when a large number of people are ill, infected persons and their families may have difficulty purchasing and preparing meals. Various government agencies and NGOs plan to provide meals to these households. In this paper, in collaboration with the American Red Cross, we study food distribution planning during an influenza pandemic. We develop a disease spread model to estimate the spread pattern of the disease geographically and over time, combine it with a facility location and resource allocation network model for food distribution, and develop heuristics to find near-optimal solutions for large instances. We run our combined disease spread and facility location model for the state of Georgia and present the estimated number of infections and the number of meals needed in each census tract for a one-year period along with a design of the supply chain network. Moreover, we investigate the impact of voluntary quarantine on the food demand and the food distribution network and show that its effects on food distribution can be significant. Our results could help decision makers prepare for a pandemic, including how to allocate limited resources and respond dynamically. }, number={1}, journal={Manufacturing & Service Operations Management}, publisher={Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS)}, author={Ekici, Ali and Keskinocak, Pınar and Swann, Julie L.}, year={2014}, month={Feb}, pages={11–27} }
 @inbook{ayer_keskinocak_swann_2014, title={Research in Public Health for Efficient, Effective, and Equitable Outcomes}, ISBN={9780984337859}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/educ.2014.0129}, DOI={10.1287/educ.2014.0129}, abstractNote={Free AccessAboutSectionsView PDF ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints ShareShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InEmail Go to SectionFree Access HomeINFORMS TutORials in Operations ResearchBridging Data and Decisions Research in Public Health for Efficient, Effective, and Equitable OutcomesTurgay Ayer, Pinar Keskinocak, Julie SwannTurgay Ayer, Pinar Keskinocak, Julie SwannPublished Online:27 Oct 2014https://doi.org/10.1287/educ.2014.0129Abstract Public health focuses on preventing disease, prolonging life, and promoting health in a population, and there are many ways in which operations research and management science (OR/MS) researchers can contribute to improved decision making in this area. In this tutorial, we discuss examples of work in several areas of public health, including access and equity, disease screening, chronic diseases, and infectious diseases. In each of these areas, we give a brief overview of challenging issues and related literature, give a specific example of a research topic, and point to potential future directions for research. We describe several trends that could impact future public health research including population ageing and an increased use of electronic records. The tutorial is intended to introduce OR/MS researchers to the many opportunities for having a positive impact on specific populations and society overall, through OR/MS research related to public health. This publication has no references to display. Your Access Options Login Options INFORMS Member Login Nonmember Login Purchase Options Save for later Item saved, go to cart Tutorials in OR, TutorialsNew $20.00 Add to cart Tutorials in OR, TutorialsNew Checkout Other Options Token Access Insert token number Claim access using a token Restore guest access Applies for purchases made as a guest Previous Back to Top Next FiguresReferencesRelatedInformationCited byA Review of the Healthcare-Management (Modeling) Literature Published in Manufacturing & Service Operations ManagementPinar Keskinocak, Nicos Savva17 December 2019 | Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, Vol. 22, No. 1 Bridging Data and DecisionsSeptember 2014 Article Information Metrics Information Published Online:October 27, 2014 Copyright © 2014, INFORMSCite asTurgay AyerPinar KeskinocakJulie Swann (2014) Research in Public Health for Efficient, Effective, and Equitable Outcomes. INFORMS TutORials in Operations Research null(null):216-239. https://doi.org/10.1287/educ.2014.0129 Keywordsoperations researchmanagement scienceanalyticspublic healthhealth systemsaccessequitychronic diseaseinfectious diseasescreeningPDF download}, booktitle={Bridging Data and Decisions}, publisher={INFORMS}, author={Ayer, Turgay and Keskinocak, Pinar and Swann, Julie}, year={2014}, month={Sep}, pages={216–239} }
 @article{phumchusri_swann_2014, title={Scaling the house: optimal seating zones for entertainment venues when location of seats affects demand}, volume={8}, ISSN={1474-7332 1741-8186}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/ijrm.2014.067334}, DOI={10.1504/ijrm.2014.067334}, abstractNote={This paper studies the problem of 'Scaling the House', or how venue managers should optimally divide seats into sections with different prices. From previous study, it was found that distance from the stage and distance from the seating row's centre affect demand. We develop a two–dimensional zoning model for the optimal 'Scaling the House' decisions. When demand is not significantly sensitive to distance from the centre, we present an alternative one–dimensional zoning model and show that the optimal seating row (to be priced at a higher price before switching to the next lower price) is the row whose expected revenue when charging at a high price is equal to the expected revenue when charging at a low price. We provide key comparative statics on how model parameters impact the optimal decisions and discuss the important managerial insights on when it is most worthwhile to section seats into two dimensional zones.}, number={1}, journal={International Journal of Revenue Management}, publisher={Inderscience Publishers}, author={Phumchusri, Naragain and Swann, Julie L.}, year={2014}, pages={56} }
 @article{nobles_serban_swann_2014, title={Spatial accessibility of pediatric primary healthcare: Measurement and inference}, volume={8}, ISSN={1932-6157}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-aoas728}, DOI={10.1214/14-aoas728}, abstractNote={Although improving financial access is in the spotlight of the current U.S. health policy agenda, this alone does not address universal and comprehensive healthcare. Affordability is one barrier to healthcare, but others such as availability and accessibility, together defined as spatial accessibility, are equally important. In this paper, we develop a measurement and modeling framework that can be used to infer the impact of policy changes on disparities in spatial accessibility within and across different population groups. The underlying model for measuring spatial accessibility is optimization-based and accounts for constraints in the healthcare delivery system. The measurement method is complemented by statistical modeling and inference on the impact of various potential contributing factors to disparities in spatial accessibility. The emphasis of this study is on children's accessibility to primary care pediatricians, piloted for the state of Georgia. We focus on disparities in accessibility between and within two populations: children insured by Medicaid and other children. We find that disparities in spatial accessibility to pediatric primary care in Georgia are significant, and resistant to many policy interventions, suggesting the need for major changes to the structure of Georgia's pediatric healthcare provider network.}, number={4}, journal={The Annals of Applied Statistics}, publisher={Institute of Mathematical Statistics}, author={Nobles, Mallory and Serban, Nicoleta and Swann, Julie}, year={2014}, month={Dec}, pages={1922–1946} }
 @article{davila-payan_swann_wortley_2014, title={System factors to explain 2009 pandemic H1N1 state vaccination rates for children and high-risk adults in US emergency response to pandemic}, volume={32}, ISSN={0264-410X}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/J.VACCINE.2013.11.018}, DOI={10.1016/J.VACCINE.2013.11.018}, abstractNote={During the 2009–2010 H1N1 pandemic, children and high-risk adults had priority for vaccination. Vaccine in short supply was allocated to states pro-rata by population, but vaccination rates as of January 2010 varied among states from 21.3% to 84.7% for children and 10.4% to 47.2% for high-risk adults. States had different campaign processes and decisions. To determine program and system factors associated with higher state pandemic vaccination coverage for children and high-risk adults during an emergency response with short supply of vaccine. Regression analysis of factors predicting state-specific H1N1 vaccination coverage in children and high-risk adults, including state campaign information, demographics, preventive or health-seeking behavior, preparedness funding, providers, state characteristics, and surveillance data. Our modeling explained variation in state-specific vaccination coverage with an adjusted R-squared of 0.82 for children and 0.78 for high-risk adults. We found that coverage of children was positively associated with programs focusing on school clinics and with a larger proportion of doses administered in public sites; negatively with the proportion of children in the population, and the proportion not visiting a doctor because of cost. The coverage for high-risk adults was positively associated with shipments of vaccine to “general access” locations, including pharmacy and retail, with the percentage of women with a Pap smear within the past 3 years and with past seasonal influenza vaccination. It was negatively associated with the expansion of vaccination to the general public by December 4, 2009. For children and high-risk adults, coverage was positively associated with the maximum number of ship-to-sites and negatively associated with the proportion of medically underserved population. Findings suggest that distribution and system decisions such as vaccination venues and providers targeted can positively impact vaccination rates for children and high-risk adults. Additionally, existing health infrastructure, health-seeking behaviors, and access affected coverage.}, number={2}, journal={Vaccine}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Davila-Payan, Carlo and Swann, Julie and Wortley, Pascale M.}, year={2014}, month={Jan}, pages={246–251} }
 @article{griffin_keskinocak_swann_2013, title={Allocating Scarce Healthcare Resources in Developing Countries: A Case for Malaria Prevention}, DOI={10.1007/978-1-4614-5885-2_20}, abstractNote={Decisions regarding the best use of scarce health resources become increasingly complex in developing countries due to high disease incidence, poor healthcare system infrastructure, and other societal factors. We develop a resource allocation model for the design of an Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS) program for malaria prevention in developing countries. Due to the seasonal nature of malaria risk factors, the model addresses dynamic resource allocation based on the risk characteristics. Using the model as a framework, a decision support tool for IRS operations is constructed. With a small numerical example we demonstrate the value of the tool for evaluating complexities and tradeoffs in the allocation of limited resources for an IRS program and the impact of heuristic decision making.}, publisher={Springer-Verlag}, author={Griffin, Jacqueline and Keskinocak, Pinar and Swann, Julie}, year={2013}, pages={511–532} }
 @article{ergun_karakus_kerl_keskinocak_swann_villarreal_drake_2013, title={Disaster Response Planning in the Private Sector and the Role of Operations Research}, DOI={10.1007/978-1-4614-5278-2_9}, abstractNote={Organizations in the private sector such as The Home Depot (THD), Lowe’s, Wal-Mart, and Waffle House have become actively involved in the disaster response operations in their communities. With the objective of becoming effective first responders, these companies have integrated a disaster response planning process to their business operations. We introduce the disaster response planning process implemented by THD after their experience with Hurricane Andrew. We describe in detail the components of this process, each of which requires different decisions to be made at different levels of the organization. We discuss how operations research methodologies could be used to assist decision makers in the disaster response setting, and we propose an optimization model for each of two of the decisions commonly found in a disaster response planning process: advance purchasing and inventory allocation. In addition to these exact methods, we suggest a scenario-based approach, which is more intuitive and allows to incorporate objectives that are harder to model, such as the relative value of the supplies.}, publisher={Springer-Verlag}, author={Ergun, Özlem and Karakus, Gonca and Kerl, Paul and Keskinocak, Pinar and Swann, Julie L. and Villarreal, Monica and Drake, Matthew J.}, year={2013}, pages={197–217} }
 @article{kirkizlar_serban_sisson_swann_barnes_williams_ophthalmology_2013, title={Evaluation of Telemedicine for Screening of Diabetic Retinopathy in the Veterans Health Administration.}, url={http://europepmc.org/abstract/med/24084501}, DOI={10.1016/j.ophtha.2013.06.029}, abstractNote={Objective To explore the cost-effectiveness of telemedicine for the screening of diabetic retinopathy (DR) and identify changes within the demographics of a patient population after telemedicine implementation. Design A retrospective medical chart review (cohort study) was conducted. Participants A total of 900 type 1 and type 2 diabetic patients enrolled in a medical system with a telemedicine screening program for DR. Methods The cost-effectiveness of the DR telemedicine program was determined by using a finite-horizon, discrete time, discounted Markov decision process model populated by parameters and testing frequency obtained from patient records. The model estimated the progression of DR and determined average quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) saved and average additional cost incurred by the telemedicine screening program. Main Outcome Measures Diabetic retinopathy, macular edema, blindness, and associated QALYs. Results The results indicate that telemedicine screening is cost-effective for DR under most conditions. On average, it is cost-effective for patient populations of >3500, patients aged <80 years, and all racial groups. Observable trends were identified in the screening population since the implementation of telemedicine screening: the number of known DR cases has increased, the overall age of patients receiving screenings has decreased, the percentage of nonwhites receiving screenings has increased, the average number of miles traveled by a patient to receive a screening has decreased, and the teleretinal screening participation is increasing. Conclusions The current teleretinal screening program is effective in terms of being cost-effective and increasing population reach. Future screening policies should give consideration to the age of patients receiving screenings and the system's patient pool size because our results indicate it is not cost-effective to screen patients aged older than 80 years or in populations with <3500 patients. Financial Disclosure(s) The author(s) have no proprietary or commercial interest in any materials discussed in this article. To explore the cost-effectiveness of telemedicine for the screening of diabetic retinopathy (DR) and identify changes within the demographics of a patient population after telemedicine implementation. A retrospective medical chart review (cohort study) was conducted. A total of 900 type 1 and type 2 diabetic patients enrolled in a medical system with a telemedicine screening program for DR. The cost-effectiveness of the DR telemedicine program was determined by using a finite-horizon, discrete time, discounted Markov decision process model populated by parameters and testing frequency obtained from patient records. The model estimated the progression of DR and determined average quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) saved and average additional cost incurred by the telemedicine screening program. Diabetic retinopathy, macular edema, blindness, and associated QALYs. The results indicate that telemedicine screening is cost-effective for DR under most conditions. On average, it is cost-effective for patient populations of >3500, patients aged <80 years, and all racial groups. Observable trends were identified in the screening population since the implementation of telemedicine screening: the number of known DR cases has increased, the overall age of patients receiving screenings has decreased, the percentage of nonwhites receiving screenings has increased, the average number of miles traveled by a patient to receive a screening has decreased, and the teleretinal screening participation is increasing. The current teleretinal screening program is effective in terms of being cost-effective and increasing population reach. Future screening policies should give consideration to the age of patients receiving screenings and the system's patient pool size because our results indicate it is not cost-effective to screen patients aged older than 80 years or in populations with <3500 patients.}, author={Kirkizlar, E. and Serban, N. and Sisson, J.A. and Swann, J.L. and Barnes, C.S. and Williams, M.D. and Ophthalmology}, year={2013}, month={Sep} }
 @article{humanitarian logistics: advanced purchasing and pre-positioning of relief items_2013, DOI={10.1007/978-1-4419-6132-7_18}, abstractNote={Unfortunately, the world has experienced frequent disasters as well as mega-disasters in the last decade. The challenges faced during the relief efforts to those disasters called for improvements in the area of humanitarian logistics. In this chapter, first we present introductory knowledge on disaster management and humanitarian logistics. The complexities and inefficiencies in the current relief response practice are indicated. To improve the disaster response, we investigate the options of advance purchasing and pre-positioning of the relief items through applied projects performed for different humanitarian organizations.}, year={2013} }
 @article{improving humanitarian operations through technology-enabled collaboration_2013, DOI={10.1111/poms.12107}, abstractNote={ Humanitarian supply chains involve many different entities, such as government, military, private, and non‐governmental organizations and individuals. Well‐coordinated interactions between entities can lead to synergies and improved humanitarian outcomes. Information technology (IT) tools can help facilitate collaboration, but cost and other barriers have limited their use. We document the use of an IT tool to improve last‐mile supply distribution and data management in one of many camps for internally displaced persons after the January 2010 earthquake in Haiti, and we describe other current uses of technology in camp management. Motivated by these examples and the interest among humanitarian organizations in expanding the use of such tools to facilitate coordination, we introduce a cooperative game theory model and explore insights about the conditions under which multi‐agency coordination is feasible and desirable. We also outline an agenda for future research in the area of technology‐enabled collaboration in the humanitarian sector. }, year={2013} }
 @article{davila-payan_swann_wortley_vaccine_2013, title={System factors to explain H1N1 state vaccination rates for adults in US emergency response to pandemic.}, url={http://europepmc.org/abstract/med/23727421}, DOI={10.1016/j.vaccine.2013.05.069}, abstractNote={During the 2009-2010 H1N1 pandemic, vaccine in short supply was allocated to states pro rata by population, yet the vaccination rates of adults differed by state. States also differed in their campaign processes and decisions. Analyzing the campaign provides an opportunity to identify specific approaches that may result in higher vaccine uptake in a future event of this nature.To determine supply chain and system factors associated with higher state H1N1 vaccination coverage for adults in a system where vaccine was in short supply.Regression analysis of factors predicting state-specific H1N1 vaccination coverage in adults. Independent variables included state campaign information, demographics, preventive or health-seeking behavior, preparedness funding, providers, state characteristics, and H1N1-specific state data.The best model explained the variation in state-specific adult vaccination coverage with an adjusted R-squared of 0.76. We found that higher H1N1 coverage of adults is associated with program aspects including shorter lead-times (i.e., the number of days between when doses were allocated to a state and were shipped, including the time for states to order the doses) and less vaccine directed to specialist locations. Higher vaccination coverage is also positively associated with the maximum number of ship-to locations, past seasonal influenza vaccination coverage, the percentage of women with a Pap smear, the percentage of the population that is Hispanic, and negatively associated with a long duration of the epidemic peak.Long lead-times may be a function of system structure or of efficiency and may suggest monitoring or redesign of distribution processes. Sending vaccine to sites with broad access could be useful when covering a general population. Existing infrastructure may be reflected in the maximum number of ship-to locations, so strengthening routine influenza vaccination programs may help during emergency vaccinations also. Future research could continue to inform program decisions.}, author={Davila-Payan, C. and Swann, J. and Wortley, P.M. and Vaccine}, year={2013}, month={May} }
 @article{duran_swann_yakä±cä±_2012, title={Dynamic switching times from season to single tickets in sports and entertainment}, volume={6}, DOI={10.1007/s11590-011-0361-8}, number={6}, journal={Optimization Letters}, publisher={Springer-Verlag}, author={Duran, Serhan and Swann, Julie L. and Yakıcı, Ertan}, year={2012}, pages={1185–1206} }
 @inbook{çelik_ergun_johnson_keskinocak_lorca_pekgün_swann_2012, title={Humanitarian Logistics}, ISBN={9780984337835}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/educ.1120.0100}, DOI={10.1287/educ.1120.0100}, abstractNote={Free AccessAboutSectionsView PDF ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints ShareShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InEmail Go to SectionFree Access HomeINFORMS TutORials in Operations ResearchNew Directions in Informatics, Optimization, Logistics, and Production Humanitarian LogisticsMelih Çelik, Özlem Ergun, Ben Johnson, Pınar Keskinocak, Álvaro Lorca, Pelin Pekgün, Julie SwannMelih Çelik, Özlem Ergun, Ben Johnson, Pınar Keskinocak, Álvaro Lorca, Pelin Pekgün, Julie SwannPublished Online:14 Oct 2014Abstract The increase in natural and man-made disasters in the recent years has highlighted challenging problems in humanitarian operations, in addition to major long-term humanitarian development challenges. Humanitarian logistics plays an important role in preparing for, responding to, and recovering from sudden-onset disasters and addressing long-term development issues. The management of humanitarian logistics operations involves many challenges such as conflicting objectives from multiple stakeholders, coordination and collaboration, high uncertainty, and scarcity of resources. In this tutorial, we provide an introduction to humanitarian logistics and its main application areas while outlining current research trends and the major challenges faced in the area today. We also present four decision aid tools addressing typical applications of humanitarian logistics: network design for donated human breast milk delivery in South Africa, port simulation and shipment scheduling for a large international agency, demand estimation and emergency procurement for CARE, and postdisaster medical response under accessibility issues. In presenting these decision aid tools, we aim to underline the differences in issues arising from sudden-onset disasters and long-term development problems, various stages of the life cycle of disasters, and different decision levels, while also pointing to general aspects in modeling humanitarian logistics problems. This publication has no references to display. Previous Back to Top Next FiguresReferencesRelatedInformationCited ByThe Nutritious Supply Chain: Optimizing Humanitarian Food AssistanceKoen Peters, Sérgio Silva,Rui Gonçalves,Mirjana Kavelj,Hein Fleuren, Dick den Hertog, Ozlem Ergun, Mallory Freeman21 June 2021 | INFORMS Journal on Optimization, Vol. 3, No. 2Harvest Hope Food Bank Optimizes Its Promotional Strategy to Raise Donations Using Integer ProgrammingSanjay L. Ahire, Pelin Pekgün16 August 2018 | INFORMS Journal on Applied Analytics, Vol. 48, No. 4Humanitarian LogisticsBahar Yetis Kara, Sinem Savaşer3 October 2017 New Directions in Informatics, Optimization, Logistics, and ProductionSeptember 2012 Article Information Metrics Downloaded 1,077 times in the past 12 months Information Published Online:October 14, 2014 Copyright © 2012, INFORMSCite asMelih ÇelikÖzlem ErgunBen JohnsonPınar KeskinocakÁlvaro LorcaPelin PekgünJulie Swann (2014) Humanitarian Logistics. INFORMS TutORials in Operations Research null(null):18-49. https://doi.org/10.1287/educ.1120.0100 Keywordshumanitarian logisticsdisaster managementlong-term developmentequitynonprofit operationsrelief distributionPDF download}, booktitle={2012 TutORials in Operations Research}, publisher={INFORMS}, author={Çelik, Melih and Ergun, Özlem and Johnson, Ben and Keskinocak, Pinar and Lorca, Álvaro and Pekgün, Pelin and Swann, Julie}, year={2012}, month={Oct}, pages={18–49} }
 @article{deo_topp_garcia_soldner_yagci_chipukuma_wamulume_reid_swann_2012, title={Modeling the Impact of Integrating HIV and Outpatient Health Services on Patient Waiting Times in an Urban Health Clinic in Zambia}, DOI={10.2139/ssrn.1699566}, abstractNote={Background: Rapid scale up of HIV treatment programs in sub-Saharan Africa has refueled the long-standing health policy debate regarding the merits and drawbacks of vertical and integrated system. Recent pilots of integrating outpatient and HIV services have shown an improvement in some patient outcomes but deterioration in waiting times, which can lead to worse health outcomes in the long run. Methods: A pilot intervention involving integration of outpatient and HIV services in an urban primary care facility in Lusaka, Zambia was studied. Data on waiting time of patients during two seven-day periods before and six months after the integration were collected using a time and motion study. Statistical tests were conducted to investigate whether the two observation periods differed in operational details such as staffing, patient arrival rates, mix of patients etc. A discrete event simulation model was constructed to facilitate a fair comparison of waiting times before and after integration. The simulation model was also used to develop alternative configurations of integration and to estimate the resulting waiting times. Results: Comparison of raw data showed that waiting times increased by 32% and 36% after integration for OPD and ART patients respectively (p Conclusions: Integrating health services has the potential of reducing waiting times due to more efficient use of resources. However, one needs to ensure that other operational factors such as staff availability are not adversely affected due to integration.}, journal={SSRN Electronic Journal}, publisher={Social Science Electronic Publishing}, author={Deo, Sarang and Topp, Stephanie M. and Garcia, Ariel and Soldner, Mallory and Yagci, Kezban and Chipukuma, Julien and Wamulume, Chibesa S. and Reid, Stewart and Swann, Julie}, year={2012} }
 @article{deo_topp_garcia_soldner_yagci_chipukuma_wamulume_reid_swann_2012, title={Modeling the impact of integrating HIV and outpatient health services on patient waiting times in an urban health clinic in Zambia.}, volume={7}, url={http://europepmc.org/abstract/med/22545108}, DOI={10.1371/journal.pone.0035479}, abstractNote={Background Rapid scale up of HIV treatment programs in sub-Saharan Africa has refueled the long-standing health policy debate regarding the merits and drawbacks of vertical and integrated system. Recent pilots of integrating outpatient and HIV services have shown an improvement in some patient outcomes but deterioration in waiting times, which can lead to worse health outcomes in the long run. Methods A pilot intervention involving integration of outpatient and HIV services in an urban primary care facility in Lusaka, Zambia was studied. Data on waiting time of patients during two seven-day periods before and six months after the integration were collected using a time and motion study. Statistical tests were conducted to investigate whether the two observation periods differed in operational details such as staffing, patient arrival rates, mix of patients etc. A discrete event simulation model was constructed to facilitate a fair comparison of waiting times before and after integration. The simulation model was also used to develop alternative configurations of integration and to estimate the resulting waiting times. Results Comparison of raw data showed that waiting times increased by 32% and 36% after integration for OPD and ART patients respectively (p<0.01). Using simulation modeling, we found that a large portion of this increase could be explained by changes in operational conditions before and after integration such as reduced staff availability (p<0.01) and longer breaks between consecutive patients (p<0.05). Controlling for these differences, integration of services, per se, would have resulted in a significant decrease in waiting times for OPD and a moderate decrease for HIV services. Conclusions Integrating health services has the potential of reducing waiting times due to more efficient use of resources. However, one needs to ensure that other operational factors such as staff availability are not adversely affected due to integration.}, number={4}, journal={PloS one}, author={Deo, S and Topp, SM and Garcia, A and Soldner, M and Yagci, Sokat K and Chipukuma, J and Wamulume, CS and Reid, SE and Swann, J}, year={2012}, pages={35479} }
 @article{case article: keeping logistics under wraps_2011, DOI={10.1287/ited.1100.0051ca}, abstractNote={ This paper describes a teaching case that integrates logistics network design with an ethical decision-making process. The ethical issues center on a proposed network design strategy for parcel transportation known as zone skipping, whose implementation in this setting would require the disguising of the identity of freight. The paper describes the case, discusses its pedagogical goals and provides some recommendations for using the case successfully in a logistics or optimization course. }, year={2011} }
 @article{drake_griffin_swann_2011, title={Case Article: Keeping Logistics Under Wraps}, volume={11}, DOI={10.1287/ited.1110.0051ca}, number={2}, journal={INFORMS Transactions on Education}, publisher={Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences}, author={Drake, Matthew J. and Griffin, Paul M. and Swann, Julie L.}, year={2011}, pages={57–62} }
 @article{drake_griffin_swann_2011, title={Case: Keeping Logistics Under Wraps}, volume={11}, DOI={10.1287/ited.1110.0051cs}, number={2}, journal={INFORMS Transactions on Education}, publisher={Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences}, author={Drake, Matthew J. and Griffin, Paul M. and Swann, Julie L.}, year={2011}, pages={63–67} }
 @article{drake_griffin_swann_2011, title={Case: Keeping Logistics Under Wraps}, volume={11}, DOI={10.1287/ited.1100.0051cs}, abstractNote={1. Company Background Stationery Demand is a national distributor of customized paper goods and office supplies located in Blawnox, Pennsylvania. The company was founded in 1963 by John Karthan, a former Westinghouse engineer who left the nuclear business to satisfy his entrepreneurial fervor. From the company’s earliest days John emphasized personal interaction with his customers, often making evening sales calls himself at the homes of other small business owners. More companies saw the value of placing their logo on stationery and other office supplies, and Stationery Demand’s business grew exponentially in the 1970s and 1980s. John hired a large sales force to serve the new customers and expand the business to geographical areas outside of western Pennsylvania. He required that these salespeople complete an extensive training program to ensure that they exemplified his personal selling philosophy. By 2005 Stationery Demand had a national presence and annual revenues exceeding $30 million. Control of the firm passed to John’s son, David Karthan, in 1992. To raise capital, David transformed the proprietorship into an S Corporation in 1996 by offering shares of stock to selected investors. Before retiring, John converted his sales force into a network of independent distributors to provide extra sales incentives and reduce his company’s benefit obligations. Stationery Demand currently has approximately 400 of these independent distributors, each serving a small portion of the United States. John Karthan clearly defined his company’s customer base early in its operations. He focused his sales efforts on small business owners like himself that larger office suppliers might ignore. The personal sales approach established trust quickly, as his customers felt that their business was valued because they were dealing directly with the owner. This provided another impetus for the decision to transform the salespeople into independent distributors. Karthan hoped, and ultimately found, that his distributors could provide a competitive advantage in landing new accounts by reflecting this same interest in the customers.}, number={2}, journal={INFORMS Transactions on Education}, publisher={Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences}, author={Drake, Matthew J. and Griffin, Paul M. and Swann, Julie L.}, year={2011}, pages={63–67} }
 @article{demirag_keskinocak_swann_2011, title={Customer rebates and retailer incentives in the presence of competition and price discrimination}, volume={215}, DOI={10.1016/j.ejor.2011.04.006}, abstractNote={Promotions are important tools for matching supply and demand in many industries. In the United States automotive industry, promotions are frequently offered, which may be given directly to customers (rebates) or given to dealers (incentives) to stimulate demand. We analyze the performance of customer rebate and retailer incentive promotions under competition. We study a setting with two manufacturers making simultaneous pricing and promotion decisions, and with two price-discriminating retailers as Stackelberg followers making simultaneous order quantity decisions. In the benchmark case with no promotions, we characterize the equilibria in closed form. We find that retailer incentives can be used by manufacturers to simultaneously improve each of their profits but can potentially lead to lower retailer profits. When manufacturers use customer rebates, we show that a manufacturer is able to decrease the profit of her competitor while increasing her own profit, although she is also at risk for her competitor to use rebates in a similar fashion. Unlike the monopoly case where the manufacturers are always better off with retailer incentives, customer rebates can be more profitable under some cases in the presence of competition. Using numerical examples we generate insights on the manufacturers’ preference of promotions in different market settings.}, number={1}, journal={European Journal of Operational Research}, publisher={Elsevier }, author={Demirag, Ozgun Caliskan and Keskinocak, Pinar and Swann, Julie}, year={2011}, pages={268–280} }
 @inbook{drake_swann_2011, title={Facilitating Demand Risk-Sharing with the Percent Deviation Contract}, ISBN={9783642192562 9783642192579}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-19257-9_6}, DOI={10.1007/978-3-642-19257-9_6}, booktitle={Supply Chain Coordination under Uncertainty}, publisher={Springer Berlin Heidelberg}, author={Drake, Matthew J. and Swann, Julie L.}, year={2011}, pages={131–163} }
 @article{ergun_keskinocak_swann_2011, title={Introduction to the Special Issue on Humanitarian Applications: Doing Good with Good OR}, volume={41}, ISSN={0092-2102 1526-551X}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/inte.1110.0578}, DOI={10.1287/inte.1110.0578}, abstractNote={Humanitarian applications include research that is primarily directed toward promoting human welfare. For example, humanity’s top 10 problems over the next 50 years have been outlined as the following: energy, water, food, environment, poverty, terrorism, disease, education, democracy, and population. Likewise, research focused on planning and responding to disasters can have an immediate impact on reducing loss of life, easing suffering, and advancing human dignity, all of which are goals of humanitarian applications. When we look back to 2010, we see that millions of people were affected by devastating disasters; the earthquakes in Haiti and Chile, the floods in Pakistan, and the volcano eruption and tsunami in Indonesia are just a few examples. Unfortunately 2011 was not kinder to our planet and its people; the devastating triple disaster (earthquake, followed by tsunami, followed by a nuclear emergency) that occurred in Japan in early March affected thousands of people and significantly damaged the infrastructure. Although we wish that these disasters were rare events, looking at history unfortunately indicates otherwise. Thousands of disasters occurred over the past couple of decades, affecting millions of people, claiming lives, damaging infrastructure, and changing social and economic conditions. The impact of disasters on the economy is also significant, as we have seen with the Kobe earthquake, Hurricane Katrina, and many other catastrophes. Our planet is likely to face even more and stronger natural disasters as we move into the future. They will impact more and more people, in part because of the increasing presence of high-density population centers in vulnerable areas. Research to improve response to disasters thus can have a real and immediate impact. The ongoing humanitarian crises in many parts of the world contribute to the loss of lives or prolonged suffering, because of a lack of basic resources in vital areas, including food, water, shelter, health, sanitation, and education. Hunger and malnutrition are the greatest risks to health worldwide—greater than AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis combined (World Food Programme 2011). One in nearly six people does not get enough food to be healthy and lead an active life; these include people living in both developing and developed countries. In 2007, 36.2 million Americans (23.8 million adults and 12.4 million children) lived in food-insecure households (Food Research and Action Center 2008). Access to basic resources is significantly more limited in the developing world. In 2007, 9.2 million children died before age five, and 92 percent of these deaths occurred in Africa and Asia (UNICEF 2008). Every year over half a million women (99 percent of them in developing countries) die of complications during pregnancy or childbirth, and basic health care remains a difficult service to obtain in many parts of the world. The public and civic sectors have many responsibilities that require the analysis of complex situations in which the use of operations research (OR) and management science (MS) in decision making can have a positive societal impact. Public sector activities that can benefit from a systematic decision-making process}, number={3}, journal={Interfaces}, publisher={Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS)}, author={Ergun, Özlem and Keskinocak, Pinar and Swann, Julie}, year={2011}, month={Jun}, pages={215–222} }
 @article{drake_griffin_swann_2011, title={Keeping Logistics Under Wraps}, volume={11}, DOI={10.1287/ited.1100.0051}, abstractNote={T paper describes a teaching case that integrates logistics network design with an ethical decision-making process. The ethical issues center on a proposed network design strategy for parcel transportation known as zone skipping, whose implementation in this setting would require the disguising of the identity of freight. The paper describes the case, discusses its pedagogical goals and provides some recommendations for using the case successfully in a logistics or optimization course.}, number={2}, journal={INFORMS Transactions on Education}, publisher={Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences}, author={Drake, Matthew J. and Griffin, Paul M. and Swann, Julie L.}, year={2011}, pages={57–67} }
 @misc{ergun_karakus_keskinocak_swann_villarreal_2011, title={Operations Research to Improve Disaster Supply Chain Management}, ISBN={9780470400531}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9780470400531.eorms0604}, DOI={10.1002/9780470400531.eorms0604}, abstractNote={Abstract}, journal={Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science}, publisher={John Wiley & Sons, Inc.}, author={Ergun, Ozlem and Karakus, Gonca and Keskinocak, Pinar and Swann, Julie and Villarreal, Monica}, year={2011}, month={Jan} }
 @article{teaching note: keeping logistics under wraps_2011, DOI={10.1287/ited.1100.0051tn}, abstractNote={ Case Teaching Note: Interested Instructors please see the Instructor Materials page for access to the restricted materials. To maintain the integrity and usefulness of cases published in ITE, unapproved distribution of the case teaching notes and other restricted materials to any other party is prohibited. }, year={2011} }
 @article{desroches_ergun_swann_2010, title={Haiti’s Eternal Weight}, journal={New York Times}, author={DesRoches, R. and Ergun, O. and Swann, J.}, year={2010}, month={Jul} }
 @article{ergun_keskinocak_swann_2010, title={Logistics ignored in disaster relief}, journal={The Atlanta Journal-Constitution}, author={Ergun, O. and Keskinocak, P. and Swann, J.}, year={2010}, month={Feb} }
 @inproceedings{ekici_kekinocak_shi_swann_2010, place={Arlington, VA}, title={Modeling Influenza Pandemic, Intervention Strategies, and Food Distribution}, booktitle={Proceedings of the DHS Workshop on Grand Challenges in Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis for Homeland Security}, publisher={The Society for Modeling and Simulation International}, author={Ekici, A. and Kekinocak, P. and Shi, P. and Swann, J.}, year={2010} }
 @article{shi_keskinocak_swann_lee_2010, title={Modelling seasonality and viral mutation to predict the course of an influenza pandemic}, volume={138}, ISSN={0950-2688 1469-4409}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0950268810000300}, DOI={10.1017/s0950268810000300}, abstractNote={SUMMARY}, number={10}, journal={Epidemiology and Infection}, publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, author={Shi, P. and Keskinocak, P. and Swann, J. L. and Lee, B. Y.}, year={2010}, month={Feb}, pages={1472–1481} }
 @article{borenstein_drake_kirkman_swann_2010, title={The Engineering and Science Issues Test (ESIT): a discipline-specific approach to assessing moral judgment.}, volume={16}, url={http://europepmc.org/abstract/med/19597969}, DOI={10.1007/s11948-009-9148-z}, abstractNote={To assess ethics pedagogy in science and engineering, we developed a new tool called the Engineering and Science Issues Test (ESIT). ESIT measures moral judgment in a manner similar to the Defining Issues Test, second edition, but is built around technical dilemmas in science and engineering. We used a quasi-experimental approach with pre- and post-tests, and we compared the results to those of a control group with no overt ethics instruction. Our findings are that several (but not all) stand-alone classes showed a significant improvement compared to the control group when the metric includes multiple stages of moral development. We also found that the written test had a higher response rate and sensitivity to pedagogy than the electronic version. We do not find significant differences on pre-test scores with respect to age, education level, gender or political leanings, but we do on whether subjects were native English speakers. We did not find significant differences on pre-test scores based on whether subjects had previous ethics instruction; this could suggest a lack of a long-term effect from the instruction.}, number={2}, journal={Science and engineering ethics}, author={Borenstein, J and Drake, MJ and Kirkman, R and Swann, JL}, year={2010}, month={Jun}, pages={387–407} }
 @article{shi_keskinocak_swann_lee_2010, title={The impact of mass gatherings and holiday traveling on the course of an influenza pandemic: a computational model.}, volume={10}, url={http://europepmc.org/abstract/med/21176155}, DOI={10.1186/1471-2458-10-778}, abstractNote={Abstract}, journal={BMC public health}, author={Shi, P and Keskinocak, P and Swann, JL and Lee, BY}, year={2010}, pages={778} }
 @article{kirkizlar_faissol_griffin_swann_2010, title={Timing of testing and treatment for asymptomatic diseases.}, volume={226}, url={http://europepmc.org/abstract/med/20361985}, DOI={10.1016/j.mbs.2010.03.007}, abstractNote={Many papers in the medical literature analyze the cost-effectiveness of screening for diseases by comparing a limited number of a priori testing policies under estimated problem parameters. However, this may be insufficient to determine the best timing of the tests or incorporate changes over time. In this paper, we develop and solve a Markov Decision Process (MDP) model for a simple class of asymptomatic diseases in order to provide the building blocks for analysis of a more general class of diseases. We provide a computationally efficient method for determining a cost-effective dynamic intervention strategy that takes into account (i) the results of the previous test for each individual and (ii) the change in the individual's behavior based on awareness of the disease. We demonstrate the usefulness of the approach by applying the results to screening decisions for Hepatitis C (HCV) using medical data, and compare our findings to current HCV screening recommendations.}, number={1}, journal={Mathematical biosciences}, author={Kirkizlar, E and Faissol, DM and Griffin, PM and Swann, JL}, year={2010}, month={Jul}, pages={28–37} }
 @article{waffle house restaurants hurricane response: a case study_2010, DOI={10.1016/j.ijpe.2009.08.018}, abstractNote={Natural and man-made disasters present an increasing challenge to the management of supply chains for businesses, governments, and humanitarian response agencies. Sharing best practices enables the continued improvement of processes that can further impact lives and livelihoods in the event of a disaster. This case study highlights the experiences of Waffle House Restaurants, which has been nationally recognized for its response to hurricanes in the United States.}, year={2010} }
 @article{faissol_griffin_swann_2009, title={Bias in Markov models of disease.}, volume={220}, url={http://europepmc.org/abstract/med/19538974}, DOI={10.1016/j.mbs.2009.05.005}, abstractNote={We examine bias in Markov models of diseases, including both chronic and infectious diseases. We consider two common types of Markov disease models: ones where disease progression changes by severity of disease, and ones where progression of disease changes in time or by age. We find sufficient conditions for bias to exist in models with aggregated transition probabilities when compared to models with state/time dependent transition probabilities. We also find that when aggregating data to compute transition probabilities, bias increases with the degree of data aggregation. We illustrate by examining bias in Markov models of Hepatitis C, Alzheimer's disease, and lung cancer using medical data and find that the bias is significant depending on the method used to aggregate the data. A key implication is that by not incorporating state/time dependent transition probabilities, studies that use Markov models of diseases may be significantly overestimating or underestimating disease progression. This could potentially result in incorrect recommendations from cost-effectiveness studies and incorrect disease burden forecasts.}, number={2}, journal={Mathematical biosciences}, author={Faissol, DM and Griffin, PM and Swann, JL}, year={2009}, month={Aug}, pages={143–156} }
 @inproceedings{ergun_karakus_keskinocak_swann_villarreal_2009, place={Dagstuhl, Germany}, title={Humanitarian Supply Chain Management - An Overview}, booktitle={Models and Algorithms for Optimization in Logistics}, publisher={Schloss Dagstuhl - Leibniz-Zentrum fuer Informatik}, author={Ergun, O. and Karakus, G. and Keskinocak, P. and Swann, J. and Villarreal, M.}, editor={Barnhart, C. and Clausen, U. and Lauther, U. and Mohring, R.H.Editors}, year={2009} }
 @article{demirag_baysar_keskinocak_swann_2009, title={The effects of customer rebates and retailer incentives on a manufacturer's profits and sales}, DOI={10.1002/nav.20390}, abstractNote={Abstract}, journal={Naval Research Logistics}, publisher={Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)}, author={Demirag, Ozgun Caliskan and Baysar, Ozgul and Keskinocak, Pinar and Swann, Julie L.}, year={2009}, pages={n/a-n/a} }
 @article{faissol_griffin_swann_2008, title={A Response}, volume={47}, DOI={10.1097/qai.0b013e31815e92ac}, abstractNote={Descemet-stripping automated endothelial keratoplasty (DSAEK) is a selective tissue corneal transplantation procedure in which only the diseased endothelium and the Descemet membrane is replaced. Refractive and visual results have been encouraging with this procedure, but higher rates of primary graft failure have been noted. We herein report histopathologic and ultrastructural changes in 2 cases of primary graft failure after DSAEK. We are not aware of these features being reported previously.Two cases of primary graft failure after DSAEK. One patient underwent DSAEK for Fuchs endothelial dystrophy and the other for pseudophakic bullous keratopathy. Both DSAEK procedures were uneventful. Postoperatively, there was no graft dislocation, but 1 patient had a nasal Descemet detachment that was reapposed with intracameral air. One month postoperatively, there was no improvement in the vision, and both patients had pronounced swelling of the recipient and donor corneas. Both patients underwent graft exchange. Both the recipient and donor corneal edema resolved.Histopathologic evaluation showed marked corneal edema and loss of endothelial cells. Ultrastructural evaluation showed only remnant endothelial cell membranes present in 1 sample devoid of any intracellular contents. Transmission electron microscopy showed the presence of extensively damaged keratocytes in the deep posterior stroma and also in the interface at the graft-host junction.These cases show widespread and irrecoverable endothelial and keratocyte damage in patients with primary graft failure after DSAEK.}, number={2}, journal={JAIDS Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes}, publisher={Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer)  - Lippincott Williams & Wilkins}, author={Faissol, Daniel M and Griffin, Paul M and Swann, Julie L}, year={2008}, pages={266} }
 @inproceedings{duran_phumchusri_swann_2008, title={Analysis of Coordinated Stochastic Systems Based on Operational Policies of Animal Shelters}, author={Duran, S. and Phumchusri, N. and Swann, J.}, year={2008} }
 @inproceedings{caliskan demirag_keskinocak_swann_2008, title={Customer Rebates and Retailer Incentives in the Presence of Competition}, author={Caliskan Demirag, O. and Keskinocak, P. and Swann, J.}, year={2008} }
 @inproceedings{drake_griffin_swann_2008, place={Denver, CO}, title={Keeping Logistics Under Wraps: A Case Study}, author={Drake, M. and Griffin, P. and Swann, J.}, year={2008} }
 @article{drake_duran_griffin_swann_2008, title={Optimal timing of switches between product sales for sports and entertainment tickets}, volume={55}, DOI={10.1002/nav.20266}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={1}, journal={Naval Research Logistics}, publisher={Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)}, author={Drake, Matthew J. and Duran, Serhan and Griffin, Paul M. and Swann, Julie L.}, year={2008}, pages={59–75} }
 @article{griffin_scherrer_swann_2008, title={Optimization of community health center locations and service offerings with statistical need estimation}, volume={40}, DOI={10.1080/07408170802165864}, abstractNote={Community Health Centers (CHCs) provide family-oriented healthcare services for people living in rural and urban medically underserved communities; they are an important part of the government's plan to make healthcare more affordable. An optimization model is developed to determine the best location and number of new CHCs in a geographical network, as well as what services each CHC should offer at which capacity level. The weighted demand coverage of the needy population is maximized subject to budget and capacity constraints, where costs are fixed and variable. Statistical methods are applied to national health databases to determine important predictors of healthcare need and disease weights, and these methods are applied to census data to obtain county-based estimates of demand. Using several performance metrics such as the number of encounters, service of uninsured persons, and coverage of rural counties, the results of the system approach to location are analyzed using the state of Georgia as a prototype. It is demonstrated that optimizing the overall network can result in improvements of 20% in several measures. The proposed model is used to analyze policy questions such as how to serve the uninsured.}, number={9}, journal={IIE Transactions}, publisher={Informa UK (Taylor & Francis)}, author={Griffin, Paul M. and Scherrer, Christina R. and Swann, Julie L.}, year={2008}, pages={880–892} }
 @inproceedings{ekici_keskinocak_swann_2008, title={Pandemic influenza response}, ISBN={9781424427079}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/wsc.2008.4736242}, DOI={10.1109/wsc.2008.4736242}, abstractNote={Recent incidents of avian flu (H5N1) in Asia and the pandemic influenza cases in history (1918, 1957 and 1968) suggest that a future pandemic influenza is inevitable and likely imminent. Governments and non-governmental organizations prepare response plans on how to react to a pandemic influenza. In this paper, we study the logistics side of the problem, specifically, food distribution logistics during the pandemic influenza. For this purpose, we develop a disease spread model that assists in estimating the food need geographically at a given time. Then, we develop an integrated solution approach called the Dynamic Update Approach to build the food distribution network. We run our integrated disease spread and facility location model for the state of Georgia and present the estimated number of infections and meals needed in each census tract for a one year period.}, booktitle={2008 Winter Simulation Conference}, publisher={IEEE}, author={Ekici, Ali and Keskinocak, Pinar and Swann, Julie L.}, year={2008}, month={Dec} }
 @article{duran_liu_simchi-levi_swann_2008, title={Policies utilizing tactical inventory for service-differentiated customers}, volume={36}, DOI={10.1016/j.orl.2007.05.013}, abstractNote={We consider a manufacturer serving two customer classes where one wants the item immediately and the second receives a discount to accept a delay. We show that an (S,R,B) base-stock policy is optimal under differentiation and non-differentiation where S, R, and B are the order-up-to, reserve-up-to, and backlog-up-to amounts.}, number={2}, journal={Operations Research Letters}, publisher={Elsevier }, author={Duran, Serhan and Liu, Tieming and Simchi-Levi, David and Swann, Julie L.}, year={2008}, pages={259–264} }
 @inproceedings{borenstein_drake_griffin_swann_2008, title={The Test of Ethical Sensitivity in Science and Engineering (TESSE): A Discipline-Specific Assessment Tool for Awareness of Ethical Issues}, author={Borenstein, J. and Drake, M. and Griffin, P. and Swann, J.}, year={2008} }
 @article{demirag_swann_2007, title={Capacity allocation to sales agents in a decentralized logistics network}, volume={54}, DOI={10.1002/nav.20254}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={7}, journal={Naval Research Logistics}, publisher={Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)}, author={Demirag, Ozgun Caliskan and Swann, Julie L.}, year={2007}, pages={796–810} }
 @article{duran_liu_simchi-levi_swann_2007, title={Optimal production and inventory policies of priority and price-differentiated customers}, volume={39}, DOI={10.1080/07408170600972982}, abstractNote={Many firms are exploring production and supply chain strategies when customers may be segmented into different classes based on service level or priority. Such segmentation can result in a more efficient production system as well as a better match between supply and demand. In this research, we analyze a system with customer classes 1 and 2, where customer class 1 has a higher priority of fulfillment than customer class 2 in the same period. We develop an optimal production and inventory strategy that rations current and future limited capacity between customer classes 1 and 2, through reserving inventory for the future and accepting orders now for future delivery when demand and production are general stochastic functions. We show that a modified order-up-to policy (S*, R i*, B i*) is optimal in each period. S* is the targeted inventory level after production at the beginning of the period; R 1* represents the optimal inventory to be protected from being sold to both classes, and R 2* is the additional amount of inventory to protect from class 2. B 2* is the optimal amount of future capacity to make available to both classes through backlogging, and B 1* is the additional backlogging amount for class 1. Computational analysis shows that the differentiation strategy can result in a significant profit improvement over a traditional inventory policy.}, number={9}, journal={IIE Transactions}, publisher={Informa UK (Taylor & Francis)}, author={Duran, Serhan and Liu, Tieming and Simchi-Levi, David and Swann, Julie L.}, year={2007}, pages={845–861} }
 @article{scherrer_griffin_swann_2007, title={Public health sealant delivery programs: optimal delivery and the cost of practice acts.}, volume={27}, url={http://europepmc.org/abstract/med/17585006}, DOI={10.1177/0272989X07302134}, abstractNote={ Background. The greatest unmet health need for US children is dental care. School-based sealant programs target low-income, high-risk second graders and are effective in preventing caries for as long as the sealant material remains in place. However, it is not clear whether such programs make efficient use of available resources and staffing. Methods. The authors used discrete event simulation to determine the optimal combinations of staffing levels and sealant stations for school-based sealant programs. Using data provided by state programs and the literature, they modeled different-sized programs under different practice act constraints and determined times and associated costs. A detailed economic analysis was done for Wisconsin. Results. For general, direct, or indirect supervision, it is optimal to have only 1 dentist or no dentists for no supervision. For general supervision, it is optimal to have the dentist and dental assistant to come on separate days to screen. The cost savings for adding an assistant and chair averaged over all of the program sizes and travel distances ranged from 4.50% (SE= 0.89) to 10.94% (SE= 0.56). Significant cost savings also result from reducing the required supervision level (8.72% [SE = 1.61] to 29.96% [SE= 1.67]). The cost of the practice act for the state of Wisconsin for 2003 was from $83,041 to $346,156, significantly more than its annual budget. Conclusions. States could save money by relaxing restrictions on the type of personnel who can deliver sealants in public health settings and by productivity gains through proper consideration of staffing. The savings could be used to improve access to sealant programs and further reduce disparities in oral health. }, number={6}, author={Scherrer, CR and Griffin, PM and Swann, JL}, year={2007}, pages={762–771} }
 @article{faissol_swann_kolodziejski_griffin_gift_2007, title={The role of bathhouses and sex clubs in HIV transmission: findings from a mathematic model.}, volume={44}, url={http://europepmc.org/abstract/med/17279050}, DOI={10.1097/QAI.0b013e31803220dd}, abstractNote={Bathhouses and sex clubs were identified as primary venues for HIV transmission during the original HIV epidemic. Because HIV incidence is increasing in some high-risk groups, their potential role in HIV transmission is being examined again. We present an extension of the Bernoulli process model of HIV transmission to incorporate subpopulations with different behaviors in sex acts, condom use, and choice of partners in a single period of time. With this model, we study the role that bathhouses and sex clubs play in HIV transmission using data from the 1997 Urban Men's Health Study. If sexual activity remains the same, we find that bathhouse closures would likely lead to a small increase in HIV transmission in the period examined by this study, although this impact is less than that which would be achieved through a 1% change in current condom use rates. If, conversely, bathhouse closure leads to a reduction of the sexual activity that was in the bathhouse by at least 2%, HIV transmission would be lowered.}, number={4}, journal={JAIDS Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes}, publisher={Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer)  - Lippincott Williams & Wilkins}, author={Faissol, DM and Swann, JL and Kolodziejski, B and Griffin, PM and Gift, TL}, year={2007}, month={Apr}, pages={386–394} }
 @article{garrow_ferguson_keskinocak_swann_2006, title={Expert opinions: Current pricing and revenue management practice across U.S. industries}, volume={5}, ISSN={1476-6930 1477-657X}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.rpm.5160042}, DOI={10.1057/palgrave.rpm.5160042}, abstractNote={On May 18, 2006, the second annual Revenue Management and Price Optimization conference was held at the Georgia Institute of Technology. The theme of the conference was on how the Internet is changing traditional revenue management and pricing practices. The conference brought together experts and thought leaders from more than 30 companies spanning airlines, hotels, car rentals, cruise lines, apartment rentals, aircraft manufacturing, retailing, distribution, e-mail marketing, on-line travel, logistics, sports, performing arts, software providers, and others. This paper summarises the key discussions from this conference and synthesises experts' perspectives on near-term opportunities and challenges facing their industries.}, number={3}, journal={Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Garrow, Laurie and Ferguson, Mark and Keskinocak, Pinar and Swann, Julie}, year={2006}, month={Oct}, pages={237–247} }
 @article{biller_swann_2006, title={Pricing for Environmental Compliance in the Auto Industry}, volume={36}, ISSN={0092-2102 1526-551X}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/inte.1050.0174}, DOI={10.1287/inte.1050.0174}, abstractNote={ For environmental and political reasons, governments have imposed fleetwide standards for emissions and fuel economy on automotive manufacturers. For example, the US government has imposed corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) regulations on manufacturers for their vehicles sold in the United States. When these standards run contrary to consumer preferences or when technology advances fail to deliver anticipated benefits, manufacturers may use price as a short-term strategy to encourage consumers to switch to vehicles that help the firm to achieve fleetwide compliance. We developed a mathematical model to coordinate price with production decisions while meeting fleetwide standards, market share, and production-capacity constraints. To incorporate substitutability of products, we created a demand model that uses consumers’ second-choice preferences and linear demand curves. }, number={2}, journal={Interfaces}, publisher={Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS)}, author={Biller, Stephan and Swann, Julie}, year={2006}, month={Apr}, pages={118–125} }
 @article{chan_simchi-levi_swann_2006, title={Pricing, Production, and Inventory Policies for Manufacturing with Stochastic Demand and Discretionary Sales}, volume={8}, DOI={10.1287/msom.1060.0100}, abstractNote={ We study determining prices and production jointly in a multiple period horizon under a general, nonstationary stochastic demand function with a discrete menu of prices. We assume that the available production capacity is limited and that unmet demand is lost. We incorporate discretionary sales, when inventory may be set aside to satisfy future demand even if some present demand is lost. We analyze and compare partial planning or delayed strategies. In delayed strategies, one decision may be planned in advance, whereas a second decision is delayed until the beginning of each time period, after observing the results of previous decisions. For example, in delayed production (delayed pricing), pricing (production) is determined at the beginning of the horizon, and the production (pricing) decision is made at the beginning of each period before new customer orders are received. A special case is where a single price is chosen over the horizon. We describe policies and heuristics for the strategies based on deterministic approximations and analyze their performances. Computational analysis yields additional insights about the strategies, such as that delayed production is usually better than delayed pricing except sometimes when capacity is tight. On average, the delayed production (pricing) heuristic achieved 99.3% (99.8%) of the corresponding optimal strategy. }, number={2}, journal={Manufacturing & Service Operations Management}, publisher={Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences}, author={Chan, Lap Mui Ann and Simchi-Levi, David and Swann, Julie}, year={2006}, pages={149–168} }
 @inproceedings{drake_griffin_swann_2006, title={Revenue Management for Sports Ticket Packages}, author={Drake, M. and Griffin, P. and Swann, J.}, year={2006} }
 @article{biller_chan_simchi-levi_swann_2005, title={Dynamic Pricing and the Direct-to-Customer Model in the Automotive Industry}, volume={5}, DOI={10.1007/s10660-005-6161-4}, number={2}, journal={Electronic Commerce Research}, publisher={Springer-Verlag}, author={Biller, Stephan and Chan, Lap Mui Ann and Simchi-Levi, David and Swann, Julie}, year={2005}, pages={309–334} }
 @inproceedings{drake_griffin_kirkman_swann_2005, title={Engineering Ethical Curricula: Assessment Of Two Approaches And Recommendations}, booktitle={Proceedings of the 2005 American Society for Engineering Education Annual Conference & Exposition}, author={Drake, M. and Griffin, P. and Kirkman, R. and Swann, J.}, year={2005} }
 @article{drake_griffin_kirkman_swann_2005, title={Engineering Ethical Curricula: Assessment and Comparison of Two Approaches}, volume={94}, DOI={10.1002/j.2168-9830.2005.tb00843.x}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={2}, journal={Journal of Engineering Education}, publisher={Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)}, author={Drake, Matthew J. and Griffin, Paul M. and Kirkman, Robert and Swann, Julie L.}, year={2005}, pages={223–231} }
 @article{griffin_griffin_swann_zlobin_2005, title={New Coronal Caries in Older Adults: Implications for Prevention}, volume={84}, ISSN={0022-0345 1544-0591}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/154405910508400806}, DOI={10.1177/154405910508400806}, abstractNote={ To characterize the extent and severity of coronal caries among older US adults and document their need for prevention interventions, we systematically reviewed studies on coronal caries incidence, increment, and attack rate. We abstracted six studies and calculated summary measures using a random-effects model (95% confidence interval [95%CI]). We tested for heterogeneity and identified associated factors by examining the correlation between outcome measures and baseline population risk and study characteristics. We re-calculated summary measures after adjusting outcomes that netted out examiner reversals. Incidence and increment varied significantly by study. Adjusting studies for netting out examiner reversals reduced heterogeneity significantly. Annual attack rate among adjusted North American studies was 1.4 surfaces per 100 surfaces (95%CI = 1.0–1.9), or approximately 1 new carious surface per person per year. These rates are equal to or higher than those in children and indicate a need for caries-prevention services. }, number={8}, journal={Journal of Dental Research}, publisher={SAGE Publications}, author={Griffin, S.O. and Griffin, P.M. and Swann, J.L. and Zlobin, N.}, year={2005}, month={Aug}, pages={715–720} }
 @article{chan_shen_simchi-levi_swann_2004, title={Coordination of Pricing and Inventory Decisions: A Survey and Classification}, DOI={10.1007/978-1-4020-7953-5_9}, abstractNote={Recent years have seen scores of retail and manufacturing companies exploring innovative pricing strategies in an effort to improve their operations and ultimately the bottom line. Firms are employing such varied tools as dynamic pricing over time, target pricing to different classes of customers, or pricing to learn about customer demand. The benefits can be significant, including not only potential increases in profit, but also improvements such as reduction in demand or production variability, resulting in more efficient supply chains.}, publisher={Springer-Verlag}, author={Chan, L. M. A. and Shen, Z. J. Max and Simchi-Levi, David and Swann, Julie L.}, year={2004}, pages={335–392} }
 @article{griffin_griffin_swann_zlobin_2004, title={Estimating Rates of New Root Caries in Older Adults}, volume={83}, ISSN={0022-0345 1544-0591}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/154405910408300810}, DOI={10.1177/154405910408300810}, abstractNote={ Although older adults are keeping their teeth longer, no national data are available on new caries in this age group. To characterize the extent of caries among older adults, we systematically reviewed studies on root caries incidence, increment, attack rate, and annual total (root + coronal) caries increment. We used a random-effects model to estimate annual summary measures and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) and tested for heterogeneity. For the 9 studies reporting root caries incidence, the summary measure equaled 23.7% (CI = 17.1–30.2%). For the 9 studies reporting root caries increment, the summary measure was 0.47 surfaces (CI = 0.34–0.61). For the 7 studies reporting total caries increment, the summary measure equaled 1.31 surfaces (95% CI = 1.01–1.61 surfaces). Because of heterogeneity, summary measures should be interpreted with caution. This research suggests, however, that older adults experience high rates of new caries and could benefit from caries-prevention programs. }, number={8}, journal={Journal of Dental Research}, publisher={SAGE Publications}, author={Griffin, S.O. and Griffin, P.M. and Swann, J.L. and Zlobin, N.}, year={2004}, month={Aug}, pages={634–638} }
 @article{swann_2004, place={London}, title={The Right Price Consultants}, ISBN={1844800628}, journal={Revenue Management and Pricing: Case Studies and Applications}, publisher={Thomson Learning}, author={Swann, J.}, editor={Yeoman, I. and McMahon Beattie, U.Editors}, year={2004}, pages={32–45} }
 @article{nelson_swann_goldsman_song_2001, title={Simple Procedures for Selecting the Best Simulated System When the Number of Alternatives is Large}, volume={49}, DOI={10.1287/opre.49.6.950.10019}, abstractNote={ In this paper, we address the problem of finding the simulated system with the best (maximum or minimum) expected performance when the number of alternatives is finite, but large enough that ranking-and-selection (R&S) procedures may require too much computation to be practical. Our approach is to use the data provided by the first stage of sampling in an R&S procedure to screen out alternatives that are not competitive, and thereby avoid the (typically much larger) second-stage sample for these systems. Our procedures represent a compromise between standard R&S procedures—which are easy to implement, but can be computationally inefficient—and fully sequential procedures—which can be statistically efficient, but are more difficult to implement and depend on more restrictive assumptions. We present a general theory for constructing combined screening and indifference-zone selection procedures, several specific procedures and a portion of an extensive empirical evaluation. }, number={6}, journal={Operations Research}, publisher={Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences}, author={Nelson, Barry L. and Swann, Julie and Goldsman, David and Song, Wheyming}, year={2001}, pages={950–963} }
 @book{swann_2000, place={Bloomington, IN}, series={Research Ethics: Cases and Commentaries}, title={Vote Early and Often}, publisher={Association for Practical and Professional Ethics}, author={Swann, J.}, year={2000}, collection={Research Ethics: Cases and Commentaries} }
 @inproceedings{griffin_scherrer_swann, title={Optimal Location and Service Selection for Community Healthcare Centers}, author={Griffin, P. and Scherrer, C. and Swann, J.} }
 @article{nelson_swann_goldsman_song, title={Simple Procedures for Selecting the Best Simulated System when the Number of Alternatives Is Large}, url={http://europepmc.org/abstract/CIT/256622}, publisher={David Goldsman, Wheyming Song}, author={Nelson, Barry L. and Swann, Julie and Goldsman, David and Song, Wheyming} }
 @article{nelson_swann_goldsman_song, title={Simple Procedures for Selecting the Best Simulated System when the Number of Alternatives is Large}, url={http://europepmc.org/abstract/CIT/184503}, publisher={David Goldsman, Wheyming Song}, author={Nelson, Barry L. and Swann, Julie and Goldsman, David and Song, Wheyming} }
 @article{nelson_swann_goldsman_song, title={Simple Procedures for Selecting the Best Simulated System when the Number of Alternatives is Large}, url={http://europepmc.org/abstract/CIT/200803}, publisher={David Goldsman, Wheyming Song}, author={Nelson, Barry L. and Swann, Julie and Goldsman, David and Song, Wheyming} }