@article{geden_smith_campbell_spain_amos-binks_mott_feng_lester_2019, title={Construction and Validation of an Anticipatory Thinking Assessment}, volume={10}, ISSN={["1664-1078"]}, url={http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-85077306542&partnerID=MN8TOARS}, DOI={10.3389/fpsyg.2019.02749}, abstractNote={Anticipatory thinking is a critical cognitive skill for successfully navigating complex, ambiguous systems in which individuals must analyze system states, anticipate outcomes, and forecast future events. For example, in military planning, intelligence analysis, business, medicine, and social services, individuals must use information to identify warnings, anticipate a spectrum of possible outcomes, and forecast likely futures in order to avoid tactical and strategic surprise. Existing methods for examining anticipatory thinking skill have relied upon task-specific behavioral measures or are resource-intensive, both of which are challenging to scale. Given the increasing importance of anticipatory thinking in many domains, developing a generic assessment of this skill and identifying the underlying cognitive mechanisms supporting it are paramount. The work reported here focuses on the development and validation of the anticipatory thinking assessment (ANTA) for measuring the divergent generative process of anticipatory thinking. Two-hundred and ten participants completed the ANTA, which required them to anticipate possible risks, opportunities, trends, or other uncertainties associated with a focal topic. Responses to the anticipatory thinking and divergent thinking tasks were rated by trained raters on a five-point scale according to the uniqueness, specificity, and remoteness of responses. Results supported the ANTA’s construct validity, convergent validity, and discriminant validity. We also explored the relationship between the ANTA scores and certain psychological traits and cognitive measures (need for cognition, need for closure, and mindfulness). Our findings suggest that the ANTA is a psychometrically valid instrument that may help researchers investigate anticipatory thinking in new contexts.}, journal={FRONTIERS IN PSYCHOLOGY}, author={Geden, Michael and Smith, Andy and Campbell, James and Spain, Randall and Amos-Binks, Adam and Mott, Bradford W. and Feng, Jing and Lester, James}, year={2019}, month={Dec} }
 @article{geden_smith_campbell_amos-binks_mott_feng_lester_2018, title={Towards Adaptive Support for Anticipatory Thinking}, DOI={10.1145/3183654.3183665}, abstractNote={Adaptive training and support technologies have been used to improve training and performance in a number of domains. However, limited work on adaptive training has examined anticipatory thinking, which is the deliberate, divergent exploration and analysis of relevant futures to avoid surprise. Anticipatory thinking engages the process of imagining how uncertainties impact the future, helps identify leading indicators and causal dependencies of future scenarios, and complements forecasting, which focuses on assessing the likelihood of outcomes. It is particularly important for intelligence analysis, mission planning, and strategic forecasting, wherein practitioners apply prospective sense-making, scenario planning, and other methodologies to identify possible options and their effects during decision making processes. However, there is currently no underlying cognitive theory supporting specific anticipatory thinking methodologies, no adaptive technologies to support their training, and no existing measures to assess their efficacy. We are engaged in an ongoing effort to design adaptive technologies to support the acquisition and measurement of anticipatory thinking. As a first step toward adaptive environments that support the acquisition and application of anticipatory thinking competencies, we have developed a task to measure anticipatory thinking in which participants explore uncertainties and the impacts on the future given a particular topic. We present preliminary results from a study to examine the validity of this measure and discuss multiple factors that affect anticipatory thinking including attention, inhibitory control, need for cognition, need for closure, convergent thinking, and divergent thinking. We then introduce design principles for supporting training, application, and assessment of anticipatory thinking.}, journal={PROCEEDINGS OF THE TECHNOLOGY, MIND, AND SOCIETY CONFERENCE (TECHMINDSOCIETY'18)}, author={Geden, Michael and Smith, Andy and Campbell, James and Amos-Binks, Adam and Mott, Bradford and Feng, Jing and Lester, James}, year={2018} }
 @article{campbell_fahmy_conrad_1999, title={Influence of an electric field on the plastic deformation of fine-grained Al2O3}, volume={30}, ISSN={["1073-5623"]}, DOI={10.1007/s11661-999-0119-4}, number={11}, journal={METALLURGICAL AND MATERIALS TRANSACTIONS A-PHYSICAL METALLURGY AND MATERIALS SCIENCE}, author={Campbell, J and Fahmy, Y and Conrad, H}, year={1999}, month={Nov}, pages={2817–2823} }
 @article{campbell_fahmy_conrad_1999, title={Plastic deformation kinetics of fine-grained alumina}, volume={30}, ISSN={["1543-1940"]}, DOI={10.1007/s11661-999-0118-5}, number={11}, journal={METALLURGICAL AND MATERIALS TRANSACTIONS A-PHYSICAL METALLURGY AND MATERIALS SCIENCE}, author={Campbell, J and Fahmy, Y and Conrad, H}, year={1999}, month={Nov}, pages={2809–2816} }