@article{goodwin_holt_prestemon_2021, title={Semi-parametric models of spatial market integration}, volume={61}, ISSN={["1435-8921"]}, DOI={10.1007/s00181-020-01985-2}, number={5}, journal={EMPIRICAL ECONOMICS}, author={Goodwin, Barry K. and Holt, Matthew T. and Prestemon, Jeffrey P.}, year={2021}, month={Nov}, pages={2335–2361} }
 @article{korhonen_nepal_prestemon_cubbage_2020, title={Projecting global and regional outlooks for planted forests under the shared socio-economic pathways}, volume={52}, ISSN={0169-4286 1573-5095}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11056-020-09789-z}, DOI={10.1007/s11056-020-09789-z}, abstractNote={AbstractThere is rising global interest in growing more trees in order to meet growing population, climate change, and wood energy needs. Using recently published data on planted forests by country, we estimated relationships between per capita income and planted forest area that are useful for understanding prospective planted forest area futures through 2100 under various United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-inspired Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Under all SSPs, projections indicate increasing global planted forest area trends for the next three to four decades and declining trends thereafter, commensurate with the quadratic functions employed. Our projections indicate somewhat less total future planted forest area than prior linear forecasts. Compared to 293 million ha (Mha) of planted forests globally in 2015, SSP5 (a vision of a wealthier world) projects the largest increase (to 334 Mha, a 14% gain) by 2055, followed by SSP2 (a continuation of historical socio-economic trends, to 327 Mha, or an 11% gain), and SSP3 (a vision of a poorer world, to 319 Mha, a 9% gain). The projected trends for major world regions differ from global trends, consistent with differing socio-economic development trajectories in those regions. Our projections based on empirical FAO data for the past 25 years, as well as those by other researchers, suggest that achieving the much more ambitious global planted forest targets proposed recently will require exceptional forest land and investment supply shifts.}, number={2}, journal={New Forests}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Korhonen, Jaana and Nepal, Prakash and Prestemon, Jeffrey P. and Cubbage, Frederick W.}, year={2020}, month={May}, pages={197–216} }
 @article{assis_suarez_prestemon_stonebraker_carrillo_dasmohapatra_jameel_gonzalez_2021, title={Risk Analysis, Practice, and Considerations in Capital Budgeting: Evidence from the Field for the Bio-based Industry}, volume={16}, ISSN={["1930-2126"]}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.15376/biores.16.1.19-45}, DOI={10.15376/biores.16.1.19-45}, abstractNote={This study aims to examine how organizations in the bio-based industry perceive risks and perform risk analysis within the capital investment decision-making process. More specifically, this study aims to assess sources of uncertainty commonly considered, identify tools and methods used for risk assessment, and understand how risk analysis is considered in capital budgeting. Eighty-six respondents were electronically surveyed on practices for capital investment risk analysis, including C-suite and upper management from different organization sizes and segments in the bio-based industry. It was found that some forms of risk analysis are utilized either in project assessment and/or for decision making by most respondents; however, qualitative and deterministic assessment practices dominate over probabilistic methods. In addition, risk assessment is most commonly performed in the later stages of a project, with less than 50% of adoption at the earlier stages. Overall, the main sources of uncertainties considered when performing risk assessment are financial, market and sales, and technology, with competition being considered mostly by upper management levels. Additionally, consistent with previous studies in other industry sectors, Internal Rate of Return, Return on Investment, and Net Present Value are the preferred financial indicators used to evaluate capital investments.}, number={1}, journal={BIORESOURCES}, publisher={BioResources}, author={Assis, Camilla Abbati and Suarez, Antonio and Prestemon, Jeffrey P. and Stonebraker, Jeffrey and Carrillo, Carlos and Dasmohapatra, Sudipta and Jameel, Hasan and Gonzalez, Ronalds}, year={2021}, month={Feb}, pages={19–45} }
 @article{daigneault_johnston_korosuo_baker_forsell_prestemon_abt_2019, title={Developing Detailed Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) Narratives for the Global Forest Sector}, volume={34}, ISSN={["1618-1530"]}, DOI={10.1561/112.00000441}, abstractNote={This paper presents a series of narratives that can be used to define possible future trends in the global forest sector across the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which we refer to as Forest Sector Pathways (FSPs). SSPs are part of a new scenario framework established by the climate change research community that facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic pathways, including sustainable development, regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature. However, the literature on sector-specific narratives outside of the energy and industrial sectors is currently limited, and this paper seeks to build upon existing SSP storylines by elaborating on the potential implications of SSP-related variables on forest resource management, forest product markets, wood-based bioenergy expansion, and other relevant trends in global forestry. The global forestry pathway narratives presented in this paper build on alternative futures research and multi-model inter-comparisons by further developing recent narratives with additional detail on specific issues related to the development and use of our world’s forests.}, number={1-2}, journal={JOURNAL OF FOREST ECONOMICS}, author={Daigneault, Adam and Johnston, Craig and Korosuo, Anu and Baker, Justin S. and Forsell, Nicklas and Prestemon, Jeffrey P. and Abt, RobertC}, year={2019}, pages={7–45} }
 @article{johnston_buongiorno_nepal_prestemon_2019, title={From Source to Sink: Past Changes and Model Projections of Carbon Sequestration in the Global Forest Sector}, volume={34}, ISSN={["1618-1530"]}, DOI={10.1561/112.00000442}, abstractNote={From Source to Sink: Past Changes and Model Projections of Carbon Sequestration in the Global Forest Sector}, number={1-2}, journal={JOURNAL OF FOREST ECONOMICS}, author={Johnston, Craig and Buongiorno, Joseph and Nepal, Prakash and Prestemon, Jeffrey P.}, year={2019}, pages={47–72} }
 @article{goodwin_holt_prestemon_2019, title={Nonlinear exchange rate pass-through in timber products: The case of oriented strand board in Canada and the United States}, volume={50}, ISSN={["1879-0860"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.najef.2019.100989}, abstractNote={We assess exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) for U.S. and Canadian prices for oriented strand board (OSB), a structural wood panel product used extensively in U.S. residential construction. Because of its prominence in construction and international trade, OSB markets are likely sensitive to general economic conditions. In keeping with recent research, we examine regime-specific ERPT effects; we use a smooth transition vector error correction model. We also consider ERPT asymmetries associated with a measure of general macroeconomic activity. Our results indicate that during expansionary periods ERPT is modest, but during downturns, ERPT effects are larger.}, journal={NORTH AMERICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE}, author={Goodwin, Barry K. and Holt, Matthew T. and Prestemon, Jeffrey P.}, year={2019}, month={Nov} }
 @article{nepal_korhonen_prestemon_cubbage_2019, title={Projecting Global and Regional Forest Area under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Using an Updated Environmental Kuznets Curve Model}, volume={10}, ISSN={1999-4907}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/f10050387}, DOI={10.3390/f10050387}, abstractNote={Forest resources are critical to environmental, economic, and social development, and there is substantial interest in understanding how global forest area will evolve in the future. Using an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) model of total forest area that we updated using more recent data sets, we projected forest area through 2100 in 168 countries using variables including income, rural population density, and the size of the labor force under different world visions drawn from alternative Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Results provided support for the existence of an EKC for total forest area, with rural population density negatively affecting forest area and labor force size positively affecting forest area. The projections showed modest and continuous increases in global forest area in all the SSPs, but varying trends for major world regions, which is consistent with the projected trends from the explanatory variables in each country. Aggregate global forest area is projected to increase by 7% as of 2100 relative to 2015 levels in SSP3, which predicts a future with the lowest rate of economic growth, and by 36% in SSP5, which is a future with the highest rate of economic growth and greater economic equality across countries. The results show how projections driven only by income produce biased results compared to the projections made with an EKC that includes rural population density and labor force variables.}, number={5}, journal={Forests}, publisher={MDPI AG}, author={Nepal, P. and Korhonen, J. and Prestemon, J. and Cubbage, F.}, year={2019}, month={Apr}, pages={387} }
 @article{nepal_korhonen_prestemon_cubbage_2019, title={Projecting global planted forest area developments and the associated impacts on global forest product markets}, volume={240}, ISSN={["1095-8630"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.03.126}, abstractNote={Planted forests are a rising share of total forests globally and an increasingly important source of timber product output, affecting national and global markets. We estimated econometric models of planted forest area by OECD and non-OECD country groups that control for economic, institutional and environmental policies likely to influence future changes in planted forest area. The models are then used to project planted forest area over next 55 years for 180 countries under five alternative scenarios of global socio-economic changes, represented in shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), adjunct products emerging from the Fifth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). By embedding key features of the SSP projections into a global forest sector model, we evaluate how planted forests lead to different global forest product market outcomes for each SSP, compared to corresponding outcomes where planted forests are not considered separately. Projected global planted forest area in 2070 ranges from 379 million ha (Mha) for SSP3 (a relatively poor and unequal world) to 475 Mha under SSP5 (a relatively wealthier and more equal world), representing respective increases of 46% and 66% compared to 2015. SSPs with the highest planted forest area increases have the lowest product prices (down by 12% by 2070, compared to SSP5 without planted forests) and higher global forest products production and consumption quantities (by as much as 3.3% by 2070, compared to SSP5 without planted forests). However, production does not increase in all countries by similar amounts, due to changes in relative advantages in production brought about by reduced product prices.}, journal={JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT}, author={Nepal, Prakash and Korhonen, Jaana and Prestemon, Jeffrey P. and Cubbage, Frederick W.}, year={2019}, month={Jun}, pages={421–430} }
 @article{chen_goodwin_prestemon_2019, title={How to fight against southern pine beetle epidemics: An insurance approach}, volume={67}, ISSN={["1744-7976"]}, DOI={10.1111/cjag.12186}, abstractNote={AbstractThe southern pine beetle (SPB) is among the leading biological agents killing southern pine species in the eastern United States. In light of recognized spatiotemporal autocorrelation in SPB outbreaks, we devise a spatiotemporal block bootstrapping method that can be applied to analyze spatiotemporally dependent infestations. We also identify the relevant risk determinants and evaluate their impacts on the frequency of SPB outbreaks. For example, we find forest type, climate, and natural disasters like storm and forest management are all significantly associated with SPB risks. Using the results of a statistical model, we design a county‐level group index insurance plan that generates estimates of actuarially fair premium rates for timber stands containing southern pine species. Given that no government‐provided compensation scheme for SPB epidemics currently exists, application of this new insurance product could reduce forest owners losses. Our study offers an approach to analyzing and protecting against risks of other destructive pests affecting the timber sector.}, number={2}, journal={CANADIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS-REVUE CANADIENNE D AGROECONOMIE}, author={Chen, Xuan and Goodwin, Barry K. and Prestemon, Jeffrey P.}, year={2019}, month={Jun}, pages={193–213} }
 @article{nepal_abt_skog_prestemon_abt_2019, title={Projected Market Competition for Wood Biomass between Traditional Products and Energy: A Simulated Interaction of US Regional, National, and Global Forest Product Markets}, volume={65}, ISSN={["1938-3738"]}, DOI={10.1093/forsci/fxy031}, abstractNote={Using a partial market equilibrium framework, this study evaluated the US regional timber and wood products market impacts of a projected national level expansion in wood biomass consumption for energy. By restricting logging residue use, we focus on the impacts on timber harvests and paper production from increased pulpwood consumption and focus on the impacts on lumber production from increased mill residue consumption. Analyses showed that increased consumption of wood for energy led to diversion of about 37 million m3 of pulpwood away from pulpwood-using traditional products (e.g., panels and paper), reducing production and net exports of paper and paperboard by up to 3 million tonnes. Increased wood energy consumption also led to increased timber harvests (up to 40 million m3 or 8 percent), increased prices (up to 31 percent), and increased lumber production and net exports by up to 9 million m3. The South was projected to supply the majority of the energy feedstock (47 m3 or 77 percent) and to experience the resultant effects on forests and wood products sectors. The findings highlight the importance of market linkages at local, national, and global levels in evaluating the impacts of increased wood energy consumption and the importance of identifying feedstock sources.}, number={1}, journal={FOREST SCIENCE}, author={Nepal, Prakash and Abt, Karen L. and Skog, Kenneth E. and Prestemon, Jeffrey P. and Abt, Robert C.}, year={2019}, month={Feb}, pages={14–26} }