@article{mosnier_javalera-rincon_jones_andrew_bai_baker_basnet_boer_chavarro_costa_et al._2023, title={A decentralized approach to model national and global food and land use systems}, volume={18}, ISSN={["1748-9326"]}, DOI={10.1088/1748-9326/acc044}, abstractNote={Abstract The achievement of several sustainable development goals and the Paris Climate Agreement depends on rapid progress towards sustainable food and land systems in all countries. We have built a flexible, collaborative modeling framework to foster the development of national pathways by local research teams and their integration up to global scale. Local researchers independently customize national models to explore mid-century pathways of the food and land use system transformation in collaboration with stakeholders. An online platform connects the national models, iteratively balances global exports and imports, and aggregates results to the global level. Our results show that actions toward greater sustainability in countries could sum up to 1 Mha net forest gain per year, 950 Mha net gain in the land where natural processes predominate, and an increased CO 2 sink of 3.7 GtCO 2 e yr −1 over the period 2020–2050 compared to current trends, while average food consumption per capita remains above the adequate food requirements in all countries. We show examples of how the global linkage impacts national results and how different assumptions in national pathways impact global results. This modeling setup acknowledges the broad heterogeneity of socio-ecological contexts and the fact that people who live in these different contexts should be empowered to design the future they want. But it also demonstrates to local decision-makers the interconnectedness of our food and land use system and the urgent need for more collaboration to converge local and global priorities.}, number={4}, journal={ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS}, author={Mosnier, Aline and Javalera-Rincon, Valeria and Jones, Sarah K. and Andrew, Robbie and Bai, Zhaohai and Baker, Justin and Basnet, Shyam and Boer, Rizaldi and Chavarro, John and Costa, Wanderson and et al.}, year={2023}, month={Apr} }
 @article{dhungel_rossi_henderson_abt_sheffield_baker_2023, title={Critical Market Tipping Points for High-Grade White Oak Inventory Decline in the Central Hardwood Region of the United States}, volume={2}, ISSN={["1938-3746"]}, DOI={10.1093/jofore/fvad005}, abstractNote={Abstract This study expands the spatial scope of the Subregional Timber Supply (SRTS) model to include states in the central hardwood region and examine critical market tipping points of high-grade (large diameter) white oak under a set of illustrative scheduled demand scenarios. In light of the growing concern for future white oak timber supply, we illustrate the sensitivity of future inventory tipping points to market structure and price responsiveness. Particularly, we examined the importance of market demand parameters, including growth rates for product demand and supply/demand elasticities, in influencing future inventory trajectories in different subregions over the projection horizon. Results of this study indicate that more elastic demand and more inelastic supply response concomitantly defers the time before inventory culminates. This modeling framework shows promise in examining key ecological, climatic, and economic interrelationships that will drive future resource changes.}, journal={JOURNAL OF FORESTRY}, author={Dhungel, Gaurav and Rossi, David and Henderson, Jesse D. and Abt, Robert C. and Sheffield, Ray and Baker, Justin}, year={2023}, month={Feb} }
 @article{favero_baker_sohngen_daigneault_2023, title={Economic factors influence net carbon emissions of forest bioenergy expansion}, volume={4}, ISSN={["2662-4435"]}, DOI={10.1038/s43247-023-00698-5}, abstractNote={Abstract There is considerable concern that consuming forest biomass for energy will increase net carbon emissions from forests, which is defined as carbon debt. Using a market-based economic model, we test the effects of 51 demand pathways for forest bioenergy on future forest carbon stocks to assess the likelihood of incurring a sustained carbon debt lasting for several decades. We show that potential forest carbon debt from bioenergy expansion, measured as a near-term decrease in forest carbon sequestration relative to a baseline, occurs and persists only under a specific set of assumptions about carbon accounting, markets, policies, and future biomass demands. Finally, we evaluate whether forest regulations restricting biomass sourcing could influence the scale of carbon debt and/or reduce the time needed to recover the carbon debt (payback period). We show that under similar demand pathways and in the absence of direct carbon policies, imposing limits to supply is likely to reduce the payback period but does not avoid initial carbon debt.}, number={1}, journal={COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT}, author={Favero, Alice and Baker, Justin and Sohngen, Brent and Daigneault, Adam}, year={2023}, month={Feb} }
 @article{caldwell_martin_vose_baker_warziniack_costanza_frey_nehra_mihiar_2023, title={Forested watersheds provide the highest water quality among all land cover types, but the benefit of this ecosystem service depends on landscape context}, volume={882}, ISSN={["1879-1026"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163550}, abstractNote={Conversion of natural land cover can degrade water quality in water supply watersheds and increase treatment costs for Public Water Systems (PWSs), but there are few studies that have fully evaluated land cover and water quality relationships in mixed use watersheds across broad hydroclimatic settings. We related upstream land cover (forest, other natural land covers, development, and agriculture) to observed and modeled water quality across the southeastern US and specifically at 1746 PWS drinking water intake facilities. While there was considerable complexity and variability in the relationship between land cover and water quality, results suggest that Total Nitrogen (TN), Total Phosphorus (TP) and Suspended Sediment (SS) concentrations decrease significantly with increasing forest cover, and increase with increasing developed or agricultural cover. Catchments with dominant (>90 %) agricultural land cover had the greatest export rates for TN, TP, and SS based on SPARROW model estimates, followed by developed-dominant, then forest- and other-natural-dominant catchments. Variability in modeled TN, TP, and SS export rates by land cover type was driven by variability in natural background sources and catchment characteristics that affected water quality even in forest-dominated catchments. Both intake setting (i.e., run-of-river or reservoir) and upstream land cover were important determinants of water quality at PWS intakes. Of all PWS intakes, 15 % had high raw water quality, and 85 % of those were on reservoirs. Of the run-of-river intakes with high raw water quality, 75 % had at least 50 % forest land cover upstream. In addition, PWS intakes obtaining surface water supply from smaller upstream catchments may experience the largest losses of natural land cover based on projections of land cover in 2070. These results illustrate the complexity and variability in the relationship between land cover and water quality at broad scales, but also suggest that forest conservation can enhance the resilience of drinking water supplies.}, journal={SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT}, author={Caldwell, Peter V. and Martin, Katherine L. and Vose, James M. and Baker, Justin S. and Warziniack, Travis W. and Costanza, Jennifer K. and Frey, Gregory E. and Nehra, Arpita and Mihiar, Christopher M.}, year={2023}, month={Jul} }
 @misc{ile_mccormick_skrabacz_bhattacharya_aguilos_carvalho_idassi_baker_heitman_king_2023, title={Integrating Short Rotation Woody Crops into Conventional Agricultural Practices in the Southeastern United States: A Review}, volume={12}, ISSN={["2073-445X"]}, url={https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/12/1/10}, DOI={10.3390/land12010010}, abstractNote={One of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal’s (SDGs) aims is to enhance access to clean energy. In addition, other SDGs are directly related to the restoration of degraded soils to improve on-farm productivity and land management. Integrating Short Rotation Woody Crops (SRWC) for bioenergy into conventional agriculture provides opportunities for sustainable domestic energy production, rural economic development/diversification, and restoration of soil health and biodiversity. Extensive research efforts have been carried out on the development of SRWC for bioenergy, biofuels, and bioproducts. Recently, broader objectives that include multiple ecosystem services, such as carbon sequestration, and land mine reclamation are being explored. Yet, limited research is available on the benefits of establishing SRWC on degraded agricultural lands in the southeastern U.S. thereby contributing to environmental goals. This paper presents a literature review to (1) synthesize the patterns and trends in SWRC bioenergy production; (2) highlight the benefits of integrating short rotation woody crops into row crop agriculture; and (3) identify emerging technologies for efficiently managing the integrated system, while identifying research gaps. Our findings show that integrating SRWC into agricultural systems can potentially improve the climate of agricultural landscapes and enhance regional and national carbon stocks in terrestrial systems.}, number={1}, journal={LAND}, author={Ile, Omoyemeh J. and McCormick, Hanna and Skrabacz, Sheila and Bhattacharya, Shamik and Aguilos, Maricar and Carvalho, Henrique D. R. and Idassi, Joshua and Baker, Justin and Heitman, Joshua L. and King, John S.}, year={2023}, month={Jan} }
 @article{baker_van houtven_phelan_latta_clark_austin_sodiya_ohrel_buckley_gentile_et al._2023, title={Projecting US forest management, market, and carbon sequestration responses to a high-impact climate scenario}, volume={147}, ISSN={["1872-7050"]}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2022.102898}, DOI={10.1016/j.forpol.2022.102898}, abstractNote={The impact of climate change on forest ecosystems remains uncertain, with wide variation in potential climate impacts across different radiative forcing scenarios and global circulation models, as well as potential variation in forest productivity impacts across species and regions. This study uses an empirical forest composition model to estimate the impact of climate factors (temperature and precipitation) and other environmental parameters on forest productivity for 94 forest species across the conterminous United States. The composition model is linked to a dynamic optimization model of the U.S. forestry sector to quantify economic impacts of a high warming scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) under six alternative climate projections and two socioeconomic scenarios. Results suggest that forest market impacts and consumer impacts could range from relatively large losses (−$2.6 billion) to moderate gain ($0.2 billion) per year across climate scenarios. Temperature-induced higher mortality and lower productivity for some forest types and scenarios, coupled with increasing economic demands for forest products, result in forest inventory losses by end of century relative to the current climate baseline (3%–23%). Lower inventories and reduced carbon sequestration capacity result in additional economic losses of up to approximately $4.1 billion per year. However, our results also highlight important adaptation mechanisms, such forest type changes and shifts in regional mill capacity that could reduce the impact of high impact climate scenarios.}, journal={FOREST POLICY AND ECONOMICS}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Baker, Justin S. and Van Houtven, George and Phelan, Jennifer and Latta, Gregory and Clark, Christopher M. and Austin, Kemen G. and Sodiya, Olakunle E. and Ohrel, Sara B. and Buckley, John and Gentile, Lauren E. and et al.}, year={2023}, month={Feb} }
 @article{rossi_baker_abt_2023, title={Quantifying additionality thresholds for forest carbon offsets in Mississippi pine pulpwood markets}, volume={156}, ISSN={["1872-7050"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.forpol.2023.103059}, abstractNote={Concerns over the additionality of carbon sequestration achieved through voluntary carbon market have threatened offset market credibility and stability. There is an urgent need to examine additionality in a dynamic market context. To this end, our analysis focuses on the extent to which deferred harvests of pine roundwood as an offset source can achieve additionality under changing roundwood prices across a large wood-producing region. Specifically, we consider the potential for offset market activity itself and for unexpected demand shocks to adjust carbon baselines as they each have an impact on the relative prices observed for industrial roundwood. We use a bioeconomic model of the roundwood market to simulate harvest activity and estimate the economically feasible levels of carbon storage across four wood-producing basins in Mississippi. We then present estimates of the expected changes in carbon storage under a given change in timber prices and demonstrate how this information can be used to approximate the optimal reaction curve for an offset broker, dealer, or verification program manager seeking to ensure additionality with credits they exchange. The optimal reaction curve consists of a response to a change in the roundwood price state by either approving supplementary harvest deferral contracts or by restricting the supply of new contracts, depending on the direction of the observed price change. Alternatively, the results suggest that contracts could be structured to facilitate payment conditional on realized timber price outcomes, rather than solely on evidence of a delayed harvest.}, journal={FOREST POLICY AND ECONOMICS}, author={Rossi, David J. and Baker, Justin S. and Abt, Robert C.}, year={2023}, month={Nov} }
 @article{favero_yoo_daigneault_baker_2023, title={TEMPERATURE AND ENERGY SECURITY: WILL FOREST BIOMASS HELP IN THE FUTURE?}, volume={6}, ISSN={["2010-0086"]}, DOI={10.1142/S2010007823500185}, journal={CLIMATE CHANGE ECONOMICS}, author={Favero, Alice and Yoo, Jonghyun and Daigneault, Adam and Baker, Justin}, year={2023}, month={Jun} }
 @article{favero_daigneault_sohngen_baker_2022, title={A system-wide assessment of forest biomass production, markets, and carbon}, volume={11}, ISSN={["1757-1707"]}, DOI={10.1111/gcbb.13013}, abstractNote={Abstract This study examines the effects of supplying forest biomass on forest ecosystem services and goods with a dynamic systems model. This unique analysis models dynamic trade and investments in forestry, thereby capturing price changes from increased forest biomass demand on current and future flows of forest ecosystem services and natural capital stocks. Forests across the globe are interconnected through timber and forest biomass markets, which influence forest management decisions, land rents, and policy responses. Results indicate that expanding forest biomass consumption, even at relatively low levels, will have important impacts on ecosystem services, particularly the benefits of terrestrial carbon sequestration and timber outputs. Increased forest biomass production can be achieved with smaller impacts on ecosystem services through policies targeting natural forest preservation. However, policies that encourage residual biomass use for energy or discourage forest plantation expansion could potentially compromise carbon benefits.}, journal={GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY BIOENERGY}, author={Favero, Alice and Daigneault, Adam and Sohngen, Brent and Baker, Justin}, year={2022}, month={Nov} }
 @article{wu_baker_wade_mccord_fargione_havlik_2022, title={Contributions of healthier diets and agricultural productivity toward sustainability and climate goals in the United States}, volume={11}, ISSN={["1862-4057"]}, DOI={10.1007/s11625-022-01232-w}, abstractNote={Abstract Meeting ambitious climate targets will require deploying the full suite of mitigation options, including those that indirectly reduce greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions. Healthy diets have sustainability co-benefits by directly reducing livestock emissions as well as indirectly reducing land use emissions. Increased crop productivity could indirectly avoid emissions by reducing cropland area. However, there is disagreement on the sustainability of proposed healthy U.S. diets and a lack of clarity on how long-term sustainability benefits may change in response to shifts in the livestock sector. Here, we explore the GHG emissions impacts of seven scenarios that vary U.S. crop yields and healthier diets in the U.S. and overseas. We also examine how impacts vary across assumptions of future ruminant livestock productivity and ruminant stocking density in the U.S. We employ two complementary land use models—the US FABLE Calculator, an agricultural and forestry sector accounting model with high agricultural commodity representation, and GLOBIOM, a spatially explicit partial equilibrium optimization model for global land use systems. Results suggest that healthier U.S. diets that follow the Dietary Guidelines for Americans reduce agricultural and land use greenhouse gas emissions by 25–57% (approx 120–310 MtCO 2e /y) and pastureland area by 28–38%. The potential emissions and land sparing benefits of U.S. agricultural productivity growth are modest within the U.S. due to the increasing comparative advantage of U.S. crops. Our findings suggest that healthy U.S. diets can significantly contribute toward meeting U.S. long-term climate goals for the land use sectors.}, journal={SUSTAINABILITY SCIENCE}, author={Wu, Grace C. and Baker, Justin S. and Wade, Christopher M. and McCord, Gordon C. and Fargione, Joseph E. and Havlik, Petr}, year={2022}, month={Nov} }
 @article{galik_baker_daigneault_latta_2022, title={Crediting temporary forest carbon: Retrospective and empirical perspectives on accounting options}, volume={5}, ISSN={["2624-893X"]}, DOI={10.3389/ffgc.2022.933020}, abstractNote={The costs and technical expertise associated with forest carbon offset projects can be significant, while decades-long time commitments can discourage participation from the outset. Considering these challenges, several new approaches have emerged in the United States under the auspices of both long-standing and recently-established programs, attempting to leverage increased carbon mitigation. What several of these approaches have in common is reduced emphasis on long-term storage, what we refer to as a traditional perspective of permanence. Instead, each considers shorter periods of time—up to and including single year harvest deferrals—as eligible project commitments. Here, we provide a brief discussion of the historical permanence and accounting literature, with an emphasis on contradictory views and how these perspectives have evolved over time. Next, we quantitatively assess the long-term influence of different permanence requirements as envisioned in several new and existing forest carbon programs, estimating net mitigation across a variety of forest types and project configurations. We conclude with a presentation of our quantitative findings in the context of the existing literature, while also highlighting unmet research needs on these so-called new offsets , those emerging novel approaches for forest carbon mitigation that challenge the research and practice status quo .}, journal={FRONTIERS IN FORESTS AND GLOBAL CHANGE}, author={Galik, Christopher S. S. and Baker, Justin S. S. and Daigneault, Adam and Latta, Gregory}, year={2022}, month={Aug} }
 @article{mosnier_schmidt-traub_obersteiner_jones_javalera-rincon_declerck_thomson_sperling_harrison_perez-guzman_et al._2022, title={How can diverse national food and land-use priorities be reconciled with global sustainability targets? Lessons from the FABLE initiative}, volume={10}, ISSN={["1862-4057"]}, DOI={10.1007/s11625-022-01227-7}, abstractNote={Abstract There is an urgent need for countries to transition their national food and land-use systems toward food and nutritional security, climate stability, and environmental integrity. How can countries satisfy their demands while jointly delivering the required transformative change to achieve global sustainability targets? Here, we present a collaborative approach developed with the FABLE—Food, Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land, and Energy—Consortium to reconcile both global and national elements for developing national food and land-use system pathways. This approach includes three key features: (1) global targets, (2) country-driven multi-objective pathways, and (3) multiple iterations of pathway refinement informed by both national and international impacts. This approach strengthens policy coherence and highlights where greater national and international ambition is needed to achieve global goals (e.g., the SDGs). We discuss how this could be used to support future climate and biodiversity negotiations and what further developments would be needed.}, journal={SUSTAINABILITY SCIENCE}, author={Mosnier, Aline and Schmidt-Traub, Guido and Obersteiner, Michael and Jones, Sarah and Javalera-Rincon, Valeria and DeClerck, Fabrice and Thomson, Marcus and Sperling, Frank and Harrison, Paula and Perez-Guzman, Katya and et al.}, year={2022}, month={Oct} }
 @article{daigneault_baker_guo_lauri_favero_forsell_johnston_ohrel_sohngen_2022, title={How the future of the global forest sink depends on timber demand, forest management, and carbon policies}, volume={76}, ISSN={["1872-9495"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102582}, abstractNote={Deforestation has contributed significantly to net greenhouse gas emissions, but slowing deforestation, regrowing forests and other ecosystem processes have made forests a net sink. Deforestation will still influence future carbon fluxes, but the role of forest growth through aging, management, and other silvicultural inputs on future carbon fluxes are critically important but not always recognized by bookkeeping and integrated assessment models. When projecting the future, it is vital to capture how management processes affect carbon storage in ecosystems and wood products. This study uses multiple global forest sector models to project forest carbon impacts across 81 shared socioeconomic (SSP) and climate mitigation pathway scenarios. We illustrate the importance of modeling management decisions in existing forests in response to changing demands for land resources, wood products and carbon. Although the models vary in key attributes, there is general agreement across a majority of scenarios that the global forest sector could remain a carbon sink in the future, sequestering 1.2–5.8 GtCO2e/yr over the next century. Carbon fluxes in the baseline scenarios that exclude climate mitigation policy ranged from −0.8 to 4.9 GtCO2e/yr, highlighting the strong influence of SSPs on forest sector model estimates. Improved forest management can jointly increase carbon stocks and harvests without expanding forest area, suggesting that carbon fluxes from managed forests systems deserve more careful consideration by the climate policy community.}, journal={GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS}, author={Daigneault, Adam and Baker, Justin S. and Guo, Jinggang and Lauri, Pekka and Favero, Alice and Forsell, Nicklas and Johnston, Craig and Ohrel, Sara B. and Sohngen, Brent}, year={2022}, month={Sep} }
 @article{henderson_abt_abt_baker_sheffield_2022, title={Impacts of hurricanes on forest markets and economic welfare: The case of hurricane Michael}, volume={140}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2022.102735}, DOI={10.1016/j.forpol.2022.102735}, abstractNote={This paper develops methodologies and identifies data gaps for understanding the impacts of hurricanes on forest product markets. Using the case of Hurricane Michael, we simulate damage to forest growing stock and forest area from alternative damage estimations (inventory and remote sensed). We then consider alternative scenarios for replanting, and the spatial distribution of salvage consumption. Beyond previous analyses we examine both short run and long run market outcomes resulting from the age demographics of standing timber post-hurricane. The simulation framework developed allows for the comparison of welfare and forest carbon consequences. Across scenarios the hurricane causes a welfare increase for pine sawtimber producers ranging from 1.2 to 1.5 times the no-hurricane baseline, and a loss for pine sawtimber consumers ranging from 0.6 to 0.8 times the baseline. Hardwood sawtimber producers gain by equivalent factors of 1.8, and consumers lose half. All scenarios gained forest carbon on the order of 1.2 times the pre-hurricane forest carbon, however, the no-hurricane case exhibited both higher carbon and carbon per unit area after a 40-year simulation.}, journal={Forest Policy and Economics}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Henderson, Jesse D. and Abt, Robert C. and Abt, Karen L. and Baker, Justin and Sheffield, Ray}, year={2022}, month={Jul}, pages={102735} }
 @article{wade_baker_van houtven_cai_lord_castellanos_leiva_fuentes_alfaro_kondash_et al._2022, title={Opportunities and spatial hotspots for irrigation expansion in Guatemala to support development goals in the food-energy-water nexus}, volume={267}, ISSN={["1873-2283"]}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2022.107608}, DOI={10.1016/j.agwat.2022.107608}, abstractNote={Climate change, growing populations, and increasing wealth are increasing demand for food, energy, and water. Additionally, water stress is expected to increase in the future in areas with high rates of seasonality of precipitation, due to increased variability in precipitation. One approach to limiting the impact of climate change on food system productions is through the intensive and extensive expansion of irrigated agriculture. This study develops a hydro-economic model to assess future agriculture production possibilities and the role of irrigation water in the Pacific Slope region of Guatemala, one of the most productive agricultural regions in the country. A range of future scenarios are presented to account for uncertainty around irrigation infrastructure expansion, future crop prices, incentives for production of biomass for bioenergy, and water availability and irrigation demand due to climate change. We find that current surface water irrigation infrastructure increases agricultural output by value in the region by about 5.3% compared to a fully rainfed system. Additionally, we show that with expanded irrigation infrastructure, agricultural output could increase by between 3.4% and 18.4% relative to current levels under current climate conditions, but the value of agricultural production could increase under climate change with projected output from current and expanded irrigation infrastructure resulting in an increase of 1.2–24.8% relative to current irrigation levels. We also present evidence that the marginal benefit from increased irrigation access to smallholder farmers is nearly equal to that received by large-scale industrial agricultural producers.}, journal={AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Wade, Christopher M. and Baker, Justin S. and Van Houtven, George and Cai, Yongxia and Lord, Benjamin and Castellanos, Edwin and Leiva, Benjamin and Fuentes, Gabriela and Alfaro, Gabriela and Kondash, A. J. and et al.}, year={2022}, month={Jun} }
 @article{wade_baker_jones_austin_cai_hernandez_latta_ohre_ragnauth_creason_et al._2022, title={Projecting the Impact of Socioeconomic and Policy Factors on Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Carbon Sequestration in US Forestry and Agriculture}, volume={37}, ISSN={["1618-1530"]}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/112.00000545}, DOI={10.1561/112.00000545}, abstractNote={Understanding greenhouse gas mitigation potential of the U.S. agriculture and forest sectors is critical for evaluating potential pathways to limit global average temperatures from rising more than 2° C. Using the FASOMGHG model, parameterized to reflect varying conditions across shared socioeconomic pathways, we project the greenhouse gas mitigation potential from U.S. agriculture and forestry across a range of carbon price scenarios. Under a moderate price scenario ($20 per ton CO2 with a 3% annual growth rate), cumulative mitigation potential over 2015-2055 varies substantially across SSPs, from 8.3 to 17.7 GtCO2e. Carbon sequestration in forests contributes the majority, 64-71%, of total mitigation across both sectors. We show that under a high income and population growth scenario over 60% of the total projected increase in forest carbon is driven by growth in demand for forest products, while mitigation incentives result in the remainder. This research sheds light on the interactions between alternative socioeconomic narratives and mitigation policy incentives which can help prioritize outreach, investment, and targeted policies for reducing emissions from and storing more carbon in these land use systems.}, journal={JOURNAL OF FOREST ECONOMICS}, publisher={Now Publishers}, author={Wade, Christopher M. and Baker, Justin S. and Jones, Jason P. H. and Austin, Kemen G. and Cai, Yongxia and Hernandez, Alison Bean and Latta, Gregory S. and Ohre, Sara B. and Ragnauth, Shaun and Creason, Jared and et al.}, year={2022}, pages={127–161} }
 @article{wade_baker_jones_austin_cai_hernandez_latta_ohre_ragnauth_creason_et al._2022, title={Projecting the Impact of Socioeconomic and Policy Factors on Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Carbon Sequestration in US Forestry and Agriculture}, volume={37}, ISSN={["1618-1530"]}, DOI={10.1561/112.00000545_supp}, journal={JOURNAL OF FOREST ECONOMICS}, author={Wade, Christopher M. and Baker, Justin S. and Jones, Jason P. H. and Austin, Kemen G. and Cai, Yongxia and Hernandez, Alison Bean and Latta, Gregory S. and Ohre, Sara B. and Ragnauth, Shaun and Creason, Jared and et al.}, year={2022}, pages={127–161} }
 @article{abt_galik_baker_2022, title={When burning wood to generate energy makes climate sense}, volume={78}, ISSN={["1938-3282"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.1080/00963402.2022.2062941}, DOI={10.1080/00963402.2022.2062941}, abstractNote={Over the last 20 years, IPPC reports have made it clear that the world must move beyond simply reducing the amount of carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere to actively removing it from the skies. (Solar and wind can reduce carbon emissions, but they do not remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere). New BioEnergy Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) technologies have been emerging that can remove carbon dioxide emissions from the atmosphere and sequester them permanently underground. Indeed, many long-term scenarios for transitioning from today’s fossil fuel-dependent society to a future net zero society hinge on BECCS. But a key question is what bioenergy feedstock to use. In some cases, powering these facilities by burning biomass that comes from plantations in the US South is an option. Consequently, the study of the origins, production, and use of the fuel consumed by the world’s largest biomass-fired power plant in Drax, England, provides a useful case study of the potential advantages and disadvantages of the burning of biomass – wood pellets made from trees, bark, roots, stumps, millwaste, sawdust, and other woody vegetation – in place of fossil fuel to generate power for processes such as BECCS.}, number={3}, journal={BULLETIN OF THE ATOMIC SCIENTISTS}, author={Abt, Robert and Galik, Christopher and Baker, Justin}, year={2022}, month={May}, pages={152–157} }
 @article{kondash_herrera_castellanos_baker_leiva benjamı́n_houtven_fuentes_alfaro_henry_wade_et al._2021, title={Food, energy, and water nexus research in Guatemala – A systematic literature review}, volume={124}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2021.06.009}, DOI={10.1016/j.envsci.2021.06.009}, abstractNote={The interconnectedness of food, energy, and water systems – commonly referred as the FEW nexus - calls for the integrated study of these systems to improve resiliency of these natural resources and adapt to our changing world. In this article, we explore the state of FEW nexus research in Guatemala to highlight progress while also pointing out future research needs. A systematic literature review was conducted to identify peer-reviewed articles and grey literature published on this topic from January 2000 to May 2020. Articles were reviewed and classified to identify the Guatemalan study location, type, topic, and data sources. Only a limited number of studies explored the interconnectedness of FEW systems; 26% of articles (36 out of 138) focused on two aspects of the FEW nexus, while 20% (27 out of 138) focused on all three aspects. Water issues were the most commonly studied, with drinking water, hydroelectricity, and wastewater management being frequently discussed. We also identified a low rate of primary data generation, with only 42% articles (58 of 138) generating new data, and greater emphasis of nexus research in the grey literature. The Guatemalan FEW connections revolve primarily around three separate yet related spheres: clean water and sanitation, climate change and renewable energy, and urbanization and modernization. Further expanding initiatives that simultaneously address these three spheres would yield improved understanding of the interconnected roles that food, energy, and water play in improving the resiliency of natural resources and reducing multidimensional poverty in Guatemala.}, journal={Environmental Science & Policy}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Kondash, A.J. and Herrera, Isabel and Castellanos, Edwin and Baker, Justin and Leiva Benjamı́n and Houtven, George Van and Fuentes, Gabriela and Alfaro, Gabriela and Henry, Candise and Wade, Christopher and et al.}, year={2021}, month={Oct}, pages={175–185} }
 @article{henry_baker_shaw_kondash_leiva_castellanos_wade_lord_van houtven_redmon_2021, title={How will renewable energy development goals affect energy poverty in Guatemala?}, volume={104}, ISSN={["1873-6181"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105665}, abstractNote={Many countries have taken on ambitious but potentially costly renewable energy development goals to combat climate change. The government of Guatemala has introduced a plan to increase renewable generation capacity, while an estimated 76% of Guatemalans are energy poor. In this paper, we evaluate the trade-offs between alleviating energy poverty and achieving renewable energy goals in Guatemala. We present a framework that combines an electricity cost model with a household expenditure survey to assess the effects that a national renewable energy development goal could have on energy poverty through added electricity expenditures. We find that the development of new renewable electricity generation has potential to significantly increase tariffs for residential electricity consumers across the country, whereby 80% of municipalities could experience more than one-third increase in monthly energy expenditures. More importantly, we find that the distribution of impacts will not be equal everywhere: households in the western, rural part of Guatemala that are already energy stressed will likely experience the greatest cost burdens because natural resource availability is low while overall poverty is already high. In addition, we compare the costs of renewable versus fossil fuel development and find that the least-cost policy in Guatemala includes a mix of both renewable and fossil technologies.}, journal={ENERGY ECONOMICS}, author={Henry, Candise L. and Baker, Justin S. and Shaw, Brooke K. and Kondash, Andrew J. and Leiva, Benjamin and Castellanos, Edwin and Wade, Christopher M. and Lord, Benjamin and Van Houtven, George and Redmon, Jennifer Hoponick}, year={2021}, month={Dec} }
 @article{janssens_havlik_krisztin_baker_frank_hasegawa_leclere_ohrel_ragnauth_schmid_et al._2021, title={International trade is a key component of climate change adaptation}, volume={11}, ISSN={["1758-6798"]}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01201-8}, DOI={10.1038/s41558-021-01201-8}, abstractNote={Trade liberalization in the early 21st century increased the adaptation capacity of global food systems to climate change; further liberalization and trade facilitation could help to avoid dozens of millions being undernourished at mid-century. The global trade agenda should explicitly include climate change adaptation to achieve SDG 2 Zero Hunger.}, number={11}, journal={NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Janssens, Charlotte and Havlik, Petr and Krisztin, Tamas and Baker, Justin and Frank, Stefan and Hasegawa, Tomoko and Leclere, David and Ohrel, Sara and Ragnauth, Shaun and Schmid, Erwin and et al.}, year={2021}, month={Nov}, pages={915–916} }
 @article{baker_proville_latané_cajka_aramayo-lipa_parkhurst_2020, title={Additionality and Avoiding Grassland Conversion in the Prairie Pothole Region of the United States}, volume={73}, ISSN={1550-7424}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rama.2019.08.013}, DOI={10.1016/j.rama.2019.08.013}, abstractNote={Grassland conversion into croplands in the Prairie Pothole Region of the United States is a persistent hurdle toward mitigating climate change. Several carbon offset markets have been designed to reward landowners for keeping lands in their native state when incentives to convert are high. We explore the role of a critical determinant in such programs: the additionality threshold. This factor, if appropriately selected and applied, reduces the participation of landowners that would choose to enroll in the program but would not have converted their land under business-as-usual conditions. Using a simple model relating land quality and land use to economic rents, we simulate potential avoided grassland conversion offset market participation across a range of cropland over pasture rent difference threshold (RDT) values. We find mitigation potential and simulated program costs are widely variable depending on this parameter and assume carbon prices: across the five states studied, the full range is 0.41 tCO2e • yr−1 (0.2 RDT, $10 •·t−1 carbon price) to 4.6 million tCO2e • yr−1 (1.2 RDT, $40 tCO2e • t−1 carbon price), assuming average land use change emissions values for pastureland in the region. Total program costs for these offsets also exhibit a wide range, spanning $2−$120 million • yr−1 depending on parameterization. Results across the full range of RDTs (0.2−2) demonstrate a tendency toward higher RDTs for achieving high levels of avoided emissions, with cost efficiency being maximized in the 1.4−1.8 range for RDTs. A state-level breakdown of results demonstrate the importance of modeling economic trends in land use and setting region-specific additionality thresholds for avoided grassland conversion offsets. Although our study is specific to grassland conversion in one region of the United States, similar offset markets exist elsewhere, where additionality concerns are paramount. We believe our framework can be useful in improving protocol design.}, number={2}, journal={Rangeland Ecology & Management}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Baker, Justin S. and Proville, Jeremy and Latané, Annah and Cajka, Jamie and Aramayo-Lipa, Lindsay and Parkhurst, Robert}, year={2020}, month={Mar}, pages={201–215} }
 @article{janssens_havlík_krisztin_baker_frank_hasegawa_leclère_ohrel_ragnauth_schmid_et al._2020, title={Global hunger and climate change adaptation through international trade}, volume={10}, ISSN={1758-678X 1758-6798}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0847-4}, DOI={10.1038/s41558-020-0847-4}, abstractNote={International trade enables us to exploit regional differences in climate change impacts and is increasingly regarded as a potential adaptation mechanism. Here, we focus on hunger reduction through international trade under alternative trade scenarios for a wide range of climate futures. Under the current level of trade integration, climate change would lead to up to 55 million people who are undernourished in 2050. Without adaptation through trade, the impacts of global climate change would increase to 73 million people who are undernourished (+33%). Reduction in tariffs as well as institutional and infrastructural barriers would decrease the negative impact to 20 million (−64%) people. We assess the adaptation effect of trade and climate-induced specialization patterns. The adaptation effect is strongest for hunger-affected import-dependent regions. However, in hunger-affected export-oriented regions, partial trade integration can lead to increased exports at the expense of domestic food availability. Although trade integration is a key component of adaptation, it needs sensitive implementation to benefit all regions. The impacts of climate change on agriculture differ regionally and will increase hunger globally. Reducing tariffs and other barriers to international trade would mitigate this, but trade integration requires a careful approach to avoid reducing domestic food security in food-exporting regions.}, number={9}, journal={Nature Climate Change}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Janssens, Charlotte and Havlík, Petr and Krisztin, Tamás and Baker, Justin and Frank, Stefan and Hasegawa, Tomoko and Leclère, David and Ohrel, Sara and Ragnauth, Shaun and Schmid, Erwin and et al.}, year={2020}, month={Jul}, pages={829–835} }
 @article{austin_baker_sohngen_wade_daigneault_ohrel_ragnauth_bean_2020, title={The economic costs of planting, preserving, and managing the world’s forests for mitigate climate change}, volume={11}, DOI={10.1038/s41467-020-19578-z}, abstractNote={Abstract Forests are critical for stabilizing our climate, but costs of mitigation over space, time, and stakeholder group remain uncertain. Using the Global Timber Model, we project mitigation potential and costs for four abatement activities across 16 regions for carbon price scenarios of $5–$100/tCO 2 . We project 0.6–6.0 GtCO 2 yr −1 in global mitigation by 2055 at costs of 2–393 billion USD yr −1 , with avoided tropical deforestation comprising 30–54% of total mitigation. Higher prices incentivize larger mitigation proportions via rotation and forest management activities in temperate and boreal biomes. Forest area increases 415–875 Mha relative to the baseline by 2055 at prices $35–$100/tCO 2 , with intensive plantations comprising <7% of this increase. Mitigation costs borne by private land managers comprise less than one-quarter of total costs. For forests to contribute ~10% of mitigation needed to limit global warming to 1.5 °C, carbon prices will need to reach $281/tCO 2 in 2055.}, number={1}, journal={Nature Communications}, author={Austin, K.G. and Baker, J.S. and Sohngen, B.L. and Wade, C.M. and Daigneault, A. and Ohrel, S.B. and Ragnauth, S. and Bean, A.}, year={2020}, month={Dec}, pages={5946} }
 @article{daigneault_johnston_korosuo_baker_forsell_prestemon_abt_2019, title={Developing Detailed Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) Narratives for the Global Forest Sector}, volume={34}, ISSN={["1618-1530"]}, DOI={10.1561/112.00000441}, abstractNote={Developing Detailed Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) Narratives for the Global Forest Sector}, number={1-2}, journal={JOURNAL OF FOREST ECONOMICS}, author={Daigneault, Adam and Johnston, Craig and Korosuo, Anu and Baker, Justin S. and Forsell, Nicklas and Prestemon, Jeffrey P. and Abt, RobertC}, year={2019}, pages={7–45} }
 @article{wade_baker_latta_ohrel_2019, title={Evaluating Potential Sources of
Aggregation Bias with a Structural
Optimization Model of the U.S. Forest
Sector}, volume={34}, ISSN={1104-6899}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/112.00000503}, DOI={10.1561/112.00000503}, abstractNote={Structural economic optimization models of the forestry and land use sectors can be used to develop baseline projections of future forest carbon stocks and annual fluxes, which inform policy dialog and investment in programs that maintain or enhance forest carbon stocks. Such analyses vary in terms of the degree of spatial, temporal, and activity-level aggregation used to represent forest resources, land cover, and markets. While the statistical and econometric modeling communities widely discuss the effects of aggregation bias and have developed correction techniques, there is limited prior research investigating how aggregation bias may affect structural optimization models. This paper explores potential aggregation bias using the Land Use and Resource Allocation model (LURA), a detailed spatial allocation partial equilibrium model of the U.S. forest sector. We ran a series of projections representing alternative aggregation approaches including averaging forest stocks at plot, county, state, and regional levels, across one-, five, or ten-year age classes, and by two or fourteen forest types. We compared the resulting projections of forest carbon stocks and harvesting activities across each aggregation scenario. This allows us to isolate the effect of aggregation on key variables of interest (e.g., GHG emissions and supply costs), while holding all other structural characteristics of the modeling framework constant. We find that age-class and forest type aggregations have the greatest impact on modeling results, with the potential to substantially impact market and greenhouse gas projections. On the other hand, spatial aggregation has a small impact on national carbon stock projections. Importantly, regional results are greatly impacted by different aggregation approaches, with projected regional cumulative carbon stocks differing by more than 25% across scenarios.}, number={3-4}, journal={Journal of Forest Economics}, publisher={Now Publishers}, author={Wade, Chrisopher M. and Baker, Justin S. and Latta, Greg and Ohrel, Sara B.}, year={2019}, month={Nov}, pages={337–366} }
 @article{jones_baker_austin_latta_wade_cai_aramayo-lipa_beach_ohrel_ragnauth_et al._2019, title={Importance of Cross-Sector
Interactions When Projecting Forest
Carbon across Alternative
Socioeconomic Futures}, volume={34}, ISSN={1104-6899}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/112.00000449}, DOI={10.1561/112.00000449}, abstractNote={In recent decades, the carbon sink provided by the U.S. forest sector has offset a sizable portion of domestic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the future, the magnitude of this sink has important implications not only for projected U.S. net GHG emissions under a reference case but also for the cost of achieving a given mitigation target. The larger the contribution of the forest sector towards reducing net GHG emissions, the less mitigation is needed from other sectors. Conversely, if the forest sector begins to contribute a smaller sink, or even becomes a net source, mitigation requirements from other sectors may need to become more stringent and costlier to achieve economy wide emissions targets. There is acknowledged uncertainty in estimates of the carbon sink provided by the U.S. forest sector, attributable to large ranges in the projections of, among other things, future economic conditions, population growth, policy implementation, and technological advancement. We examined these drivers in the context of an economic model of the agricultural and forestry sectors, to demonstrate the importance of cross-sector interactions on projections of emissions and carbon sequestration. Using this model, we compared detailed scenarios that differ in their assumptions of demand for agriculture and forestry products, trade, rates of (sub)urbanization, and limits on timber harvest on protected lands. We found that a scenario assuming higher demand and more trade for forest products resulted in increased forest growth and larger net GHG sequestration, while a scenario featuring higher agricultural demand, ceteris paribus led to forest land conversion and increased anthropogenic emissions. Importantly, when high demand scenarios are implemented conjunctively, agricultural sector emissions under a high income-growth world with increased livestock-product demand are fully displaced by substantial GHG sequestration from the forest sector with increased forest product demand. This finding highlights the potential limitations of single-sector modeling approaches that ignore important interaction effects between sectors.}, number={3-4}, journal={Journal of Forest Economics}, publisher={Now Publishers}, author={Jones, Jason P. H. and Baker, Justin S. and Austin, Kemen and Latta, Greg and Wade, Chrisopher M. and Cai, Yongxia and Aramayo-Lipa, Lindsay and Beach, Robert and Ohrel, Sara B. and Ragnauth, Shaun and et al.}, year={2019}, month={Aug}, pages={205–231} }
 @article{baker_wade_sohngen_ohrel_fawcett_2019, title={Potential complementarity between forest carbon sequestration incentives and biomass energy expansion}, volume={126}, ISSN={0301-4215}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.10.009}, DOI={10.1016/j.enpol.2018.10.009}, abstractNote={There is a growing literature on the potential contributions the global forest sector could make toward long-term climate action goals through increased carbon sequestration and the provision of biomass for energy generation. However, little work to date has explored possible interactions between carbon sequestration incentives and bioenergy expansion policies in forestry. This study develops a simple conceptual model for evaluating whether carbon sequestration and biomass energy policies are carbon complements or substitutes. Then, we apply a dynamic structural model of the global forest sector to assess terrestrial carbon changes under different combinations of carbon sequestration price incentives and forest bioenergy expansion. Our results show that forest bioenergy expansion can complement carbon sequestration policies in the near- and medium-term, reducing marginal abatement costs and increasing mitigation potential. By the end of the century these policies become substitutes, with forest bioenergy expansion increasing the costs of carbon sequestration. This switch is driven by relatively high demand and price growth for pulpwood under scenarios with forest bioenergy expansion, which incentivizes management changes in the near- and medium-term that are carbon beneficial (e.g., afforestation and intensive margin shifts), but requires sustained increases in pulpwood harvest levels over the long-term.}, journal={Energy Policy}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Baker, J.S. and Wade, C.M. and Sohngen, B.L. and Ohrel, S. and Fawcett, A.A.}, year={2019}, month={Mar}, pages={391–401} }
 @article{wade_baker_latta_ohrel_allpress_2019, title={Projecting the Spatial Distribution of Possible Planted Forest Expansion in the United States}, volume={117}, ISSN={0022-1201 1938-3746}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jofore/fvz054}, DOI={10.1093/jofore/fvz054}, abstractNote={Abstract As the demand for forest products and carbon storage in standing timbers increases, intensive planting of forest resources is expected to increase. With the increased use of plantation practices, it is important to understand the influence that forest plot characteristics have on the likelihood of where these practices are occurring. Depending on the goals of a policy or program, increasing forest planting could be a desirable outcome or something to avoid. This study estimates a spatially explicit logistical regression function to assess the likelihood that forest plots will be planted based on physical, climate, and economic factors. The empirical results are used to project the potential spatial distribution of forest planting, at the intensive and extensive land-use margins, across illustrative future scenarios. Results from this analysis offer insight into the factors that have driven forest planting in the United States historically and the potential distribution of new forest planting in the coming decades under policy or market scenarios that incentivize improved forest productivity or certain ecosystem services provided by intensively managed systems (e.g., carbon sequestration).}, number={6}, journal={Journal of Forestry}, publisher={Oxford University Press (OUP)}, author={Wade, Christopher M and Baker, Justin S and Latta, Gregory and Ohrel, Sara B and Allpress, Justine}, year={2019}, month={Oct}, pages={560–578} }
 @article{baker_latta_forsell_sohngen_2019, title={State of the Art Methods to Project
Forest Carbon Stocks}, volume={34}, ISSN={1104-6899}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/112.00000440}, DOI={10.1561/112.00000440}, abstractNote={This special issue provides a broad range of potential methodologies, based in economics, for projecting forest carbon stocks. Papers included highlight new analyses from various economists that have projected carbon fluxes nationally and globally. Through carefully designed research, these authors have provided deep insights into methods that can be applied broadly.}, number={1-2}, journal={Journal of Forest Economics}, publisher={Now Publishers}, author={Baker, Justin S. and Latta, Greg and Forsell, Nicklas and Sohngen, Brent}, year={2019}, month={Aug}, pages={1–5} }
 @article{sohngen_salem_baker_shell_kim_2019, title={The Influence of Parametric
Uncertainty on Projections of Forest
Land Use, Carbon, and Markets}, volume={34}, ISSN={1104-6899}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/112.00000445}, DOI={10.1561/112.00000445}, abstractNote={This paper uses Monte Carlo methods and regression analysis to assess the role of uncertainty in yield function and land supply elasticity parameters on land use, carbon, and market outcomes in a long-term dynamic model of the global forest sector. The results suggest that parametric uncertainty has little influence on projected future timber prices and global output, but it does have important implications for regional projections of outputs. A wide range of outcomes are possible for timber outputs, depending on growth and elasticity parameters. Timber output in the U.S., for instance, could change by -67 to +98 million m3 per year by 2060. Despite uncertainty in the parameters, our analysis suggests that the temperate zone may sequester +30 to +79 Pg C by 2060 and +58 to +114 Pg C by 2090 while the tropics are projected to store -35 to +70 Pg C and -33 to +73 Pg C for the same time periods, respectively. Attributional analysis shows that uncertainty in the parameters regulating forest growth has a more important impact on projections of future carbon storage than uncertainty in the land supply elasticity parameters. Moreover, the results suggest that understanding growth parameters in regions with large current carbon stocks is most important for making future projections of carbon storage.}, number={1-2}, journal={Journal of Forest Economics}, publisher={Now Publishers}, author={Sohngen, Brent and Salem, Marwa E. and Baker, Justin S. and Shell, Michael J. and Kim, Sei Jin}, year={2019}, month={Aug}, pages={129–158} }
 @article{latta_baker_ohrel_2018, title={A Land Use and Resource Allocation (LURA) modeling system for projecting localized forest CO 2 effects of alternative macroeconomic futures}, volume={87}, ISSN={1389-9341}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2017.10.003}, DOI={10.1016/j.forpol.2017.10.003}, abstractNote={The United States has recently set ambitious national goals for greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions over the coming decades. A portion of these reductions are based on expected sequestration and storage contributions from land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF). Significant uncertainty exists in future forest markets and thus the potential LULUCF contribution to US GHG reduction goals. This study seeks to inform the discussion by modeling US forest GHG accounts per different simulated demand scenarios across a grid of over 130,000 USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) forestland plots over the conterminous United States. This spatially disaggregated future supply is based on empirical yield functions for log volume, biomass and carbon. Demand data is based on a spatial database of over 2300 forest product manufacturing facilities representing 11 intermediate and 13 final solid and pulpwood products. Transportation costs are derived from fuel prices and the locations of FIA plot from which a log is harvested and mill or port destination. Trade between mills in intermediate products such as sawmill residues or planer shavings is also captured within the model formulation. The resulting partial spatial equilibrium model of the US forest sector is solved annually for the period 2015–2035 with demand shifted by energy prices and macroeconomic indicators from the US EIA's Annual Energy Outlook for a Reference, Low Economic Growth, and High Economic Growth case. For each macroeconomic scenario simulated, figures showing historic and scenario-specific live tree carnon emissions and sequestration are generated. Maps of the spatial allocation of both forest harvesting and related carbon fluxes are presented at the National level and detail is given for both regions and ownerships.}, journal={Forest Policy and Economics}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Latta, Gregory S. and Baker, Justin S. and Ohrel, Sara}, year={2018}, month={Feb}, pages={35–48} }
 @article{kim_baker_sohngen_shell_2018, title={Cumulative global forest carbon implications of regional bioenergy expansion policies}, volume={53}, ISSN={0928-7655}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2018.04.003}, DOI={10.1016/j.reseneeco.2018.04.003}, abstractNote={Several previous studies have evaluated the potential greenhouse gas (GHG) benefits of forest biomass energy relative to fossil fuel equivalents over different spatial scales and time frames and applying a variety of methodologies. This paper contributes to this literature through an analysis of multiple projected sources of biomass demand growth in different regions of the world using a detailed intertemporal optimization model of the global forest sector. Given the range of current policies incentivizing bioenergy expansion globally, evaluating the combined global implications of regional bioenergy expansion efforts is critical for understanding the extent to which renewable energy supplied from forest biomass can contribute to various policy goals (including GHG emissions mitigation). Unlike previous studies that have been more regionally focused, this study provides a global perspective, illustrating how large potential demand increases for forest biomass in one or multiple regions can alter future forest management trends, markets, and forest carbon sequestration in key timber supply regions. Results show that potential near term (2015-2030) biomass demand growth in the U.S., Europe, and elsewhere can drive forest resource investment at the intensive and extensive margins, resulting in a net increase in forest carbon stocks for most regions of the world. When the reallocation of biomass away from traditional pulp and sawtimber markets is accounted for, net forest carbon sequestration increases (that stored on the land and in wood products) by 9.4 billion tons CO2 over the near term and 15.4 billion tons CO2 by 2095. Even if most of the increased forest biomass demand arises from one region (e.g., Europe) due to a particularly strong promotion of forest bioenergy expansion, changes in forest management globally in anticipation of this demand increase could result in carbon beneficial outcomes that can be shared by most regions.}, journal={Resource and Energy Economics}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Kim, Sei Jin and Baker, Justin S. and Sohngen, Brent L. and Shell, Michael}, year={2018}, month={Aug}, pages={198–219} }
 @article{baker_havlík_beach_leclère_schmid_valin_cole_creason_ohrel_mcfarland_2018, title={Evaluating the effects of climate change on US agricultural systems: sensitivity to regional impact and trade expansion scenarios}, volume={13}, ISSN={1748-9326}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aac1c2}, DOI={10.1088/1748-9326/aac1c2}, abstractNote={Agriculture is one of the sectors that is expected to be most significantly impacted by climate change. There has been considerable interest in assessing these impacts and many recent studies investigating agricultural impacts for individual countries and regions using an array of models. However, the great majority of existing studies explore impacts on a country or region of interest without explicitly accounting for impacts on the rest of the world. This approach can bias the results of impact assessments for agriculture given the importance of global trade in this sector. Due to potential impacts on relative competitiveness, international trade, global supply, and prices, the net impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector in each region depend not only on productivity impacts within that region, but on how climate change impacts agricultural productivity throughout the world. In this study, we apply a global model of agriculture and forestry to evaluate climate change impacts on US agriculture with and without accounting for climate change impacts in the rest of the world. In addition, we examine scenarios where trade is expanded to explore the implications for regional allocation of production, trade volumes, and prices. To our knowledge, this is one of the only attempts to explicitly quantify the relative importance of accounting for global climate change when conducting regional assessments of climate change impacts. The results of our analyses reveal substantial differences in estimated impacts on the US agricultural sector when accounting for global impacts vs. US-only impacts, particularly for commodities where the United States has a smaller share of global production. In addition, we find that freer trade can play an important role in helping to buffer regional productivity shocks.}, number={6}, journal={Environmental Research Letters}, publisher={IOP Publishing}, author={Baker, Justin S and Havlík, Petr and Beach, Robert and Leclère, David and Schmid, Erwin and Valin, Hugo and Cole, Jefferson and Creason, Jared and Ohrel, Sara and McFarland, James}, year={2018}, month={Jun}, pages={064019} }
 @book{cai_wade_baker_jones_latta_ohrel_ragnauth_creason_2018, title={Implications of alternative land conversion cost specifications on projected afforestation potential in the United States}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.3768/rtipress.2018.op.0057.1811}, DOI={10.3768/rtipress.2018.op.0057.1811}, abstractNote={The Forestry and Agriculture Sector Optimization Model with Greenhouse Gases (FASOMGHG) has historically relied on regional average costs of land conversion to simulate land use change across cropland, pasture, rangeland, and forestry. This assumption limits the accuracy of the land conversion estimates by not recognizing spatial heterogeneity in land quality and conversion costs. Using data from Nielsen et al. (2014), we obtained the afforestation cost per county, then estimated nonparametric regional marginal cost functions for land converting land to forestry. These afforestation costs were then incorporated into FASOMGHG. Three different assumptions for land moving into the forest sector were run; constant average conversion cost, static rising marginal costs and dynamic rising marginal cost, in order to assess the implications of alternative land conversion cost assumptions on key outcomes, such as projected forest area and cropland use, carbon sequestration, and forest product output.}, institution={RTI Press}, author={Cai, Yongxia and Wade, Christopher M. and Baker, Justin S. and Jones, Jason P. H. and Latta, Gregory S. and Ohrel, Sara B. and Ragnauth, Shaun A. and Creason, Jared R.}, year={2018}, month={Nov} }
 @article{baker_crouch_cai_latta_ohrel_jones_latané_2018, title={Logging residue supply and costs for electricity generation: Potential variability and policy considerations}, volume={116}, ISSN={0301-4215}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2017.11.026}, DOI={10.1016/j.enpol.2017.11.026}, abstractNote={This paper applies a spatial allocation optimization model to evaluate logging residue supply potential and costs for bioelectricity generation within the conterminous United States. Simulations are developed to estimate a range in supply potential and costs across a broad range of sensitivity scenarios, including (1) different biomass availability rates based on observed roundwood removals, (2) renewable energy targets set nationally or at a state-level, (3) with and without biomass sourcing restrictions within a state, (4) with and without access to public lands, and (5) policy restrictions on eligible facility types. Under the least restrictive policy scenario (a hypothetical national mandate), total supply is 8.8 million dry tons (MDT) at $20/DT and increases to 32.5 MDT at $80/DT. Results fall within the range of previous logging residue supply studies in the U.S., including the last two Billion Ton reports. Results from this paper offer important policy insight into the potential cost efficiency of a flexible policy design. Sensitivity scenarios show potential supply cost increases that could result from policies imposing regional restrictions, limiting access to public lands, and restricting eligible facilities. Restricting biomass supply sources within state boundaries reduces total supply up to 10% relative to an unrestricted national policy.}, journal={Energy Policy}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Baker, Justin S. and Crouch, Adam and Cai, Yongxia and Latta, Greg and Ohrel, Sara and Jones, Jason and Latané, Annah}, year={2018}, month={May}, pages={397–409} }
 @article{larson_baker_latta_ohrel_wade_2018, title={Modeling International Trade of Forest Products: Application of PPML to a Gravity Model of Trade}, volume={68}, DOI={10.13073/FPJ-D-17-00057}, abstractNote={Abstract To model international trade of forest products we use a gravity model of trade. In modeling trade, we estimate the impact of importer gross domestic product (GDP), exporter GDP, and dista...}, number={3}, journal={Forest Products Journal}, author={Larson, J. and Baker, J.S. and Latta, G. and Ohrel, S.O. and Wade, C.H.}, year={2018}, pages={303–316} }
 @article{tian_sohngen_baker_ohrel_fawcett_2018, title={Will U.S. Forests Continue to Be a Carbon Sink?}, volume={94}, ISSN={0023-7639 1543-8325}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.3368/le.94.1.97}, DOI={10.3368/le.94.1.97}, abstractNote={This paper develops structural dynamic methods to project future carbon fluxes in forests. These methods account for land management changes on both the intensive and extensive margins, both of which are critical components of future carbon fluxes. When implemented, the model suggests that U.S. forests remain a carbon sink through most of the coming century, sequestering 128 Tg C y-1. Constraining forestland to its current boundaries and constraining management to current levels reduce average sequestration by 25 to 28 Tg C y-1. An increase in demand leads to increased management and greater sequestration in forests. The results are robust to climate change. (JEL Q23, Q54).}, number={1}, journal={Land Economics}, publisher={University of Wisconsin Press}, author={Tian, Xiaohui and Sohngen, Brent and Baker, Justin and Ohrel, Sara and Fawcett, Allen A.}, year={2018}, month={Jan}, pages={97–113} }
 @book{baker_sohngen_ohrel_fawcett_2017, title={Economic Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Potential in the US Forest Sector}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.3768/rtipress.2017.pb.0011.1708}, DOI={10.3768/rtipress.2017.pb.0011.1708}, abstractNote={This study conducted an economic analysis of future US forest mitigation potential using a detailed economic model of the global forestry sector. The scenario design included a wide range of possible future carbon price incentives and climate policy structures (unilateral and global mitigation). Results across all scenarios show US forest sector mitigation potential ranging from 54 to 292 MtCO2e between 2015 and 2030 (5 to 47 percent of the additional mitigation needed to achieve the 26 to 28 percent emissions reduction target). The results from this study suggest that the US forest sector can play an important role in global greenhouse gas mitigation efforts, including efforts to meet any potential future US mitigation targets.}, institution={RTI Press}, author={Baker, Justin S. and Sohngen, Brent L. and Ohrel, Sara and Fawcett, Allen A.}, year={2017}, month={Aug} }
 @book{van winkle_baker_lapidus_ohrel_steller_latta_birur_2017, title={US Forest Sector Greenhouse Mitigation Potential and Implications for Nationally Determined Contributions}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.3768/rtipress.2017.op.0033.1705}, DOI={10.3768/rtipress.2017.op.0033.1705}, abstractNote={Countries globally are committing to achieve future greenhouse gas emissions reductions to address our changing climate, as outlined in the Paris Agreement from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of the Parties. These commitments, called nationally determined contributions (NDCs), are based on projected anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions levels across all sectors of the economy, including land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) activities. Projecting LULUCF emissions is uniquely challenging, and the uncertainty of future LULUCF emissions could require additional mitigation efforts in the land use sectors to reduce the risk of NDC noncompliance. The objectives of this paper are to provide critical information on what forest sector mitigation activities are currently underway in the United States on private lands, review recent literature estimates of the mitigation potential from these activities (and associated economic costs), identify gaps in the literature where additional analytical work is needed, and provide recommendations for targeted mitigation strategies should US emissions approach or exceed targeted post-2020 NDC levels.}, institution={RTI Press}, author={Van Winkle, Christina and Baker, Justin S. and Lapidus, Daniel and Ohrel, Sara and Steller, John and Latta, Gregory and Birur, Dileep}, year={2017}, month={May} }
 @inbook{galik_rupert_starkman_threadcraft_baker_2016, title={Enhancing Home Energy Efficiency Through Natural Hazard Risk Reduction: Linking Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation in the Home}, ISBN={9781934831151}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.3768/rtipress.2015.bk.0015.1512.6}, DOI={10.3768/rtipress.2015.bk.0015.1512.6}, abstractNote={As a collection of essays that explore innovations to encourage reduction in homeowner energy use, this volume reflects a confluence of ideas and initiatives rather than a narrow look at what a single, particular line of academic literature suggests might be possible to shape homeowner behavior.}, booktitle={Innovations in Home Energy Use: A Sourcebook for Behavior Change}, publisher={RTI Press}, author={Galik, Christopher S. and Rupert, Douglas and Starkman, Kendall and Threadcraft, Joseph and Baker, Justin S.}, year={2016}, month={Jan}, pages={111–140} }
 @article{ogle_mccarl_baker_del grosso_adler_paustian_parton_2015, title={Managing the nitrogen cycle to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from crop production and biofuel expansion}, volume={21}, ISSN={1381-2386 1573-1596}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11027-015-9645-0}, DOI={10.1007/s11027-015-9645-0}, number={8}, journal={Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Ogle, Stephen M. and McCarl, Bruce A. and Baker, Justin and Del Grosso, Stephen J. and Adler, Paul R. and Paustian, Keith and Parton, William J.}, year={2015}, month={Mar}, pages={1197–1212} }
 @article{lacombe_douangsavanh_baker_hoanh_bartlett_jeuland_phongpachith_2014, title={Are hydropower and irrigation development complements or substitutes? The example of the Nam Ngum River in the Mekong Basin}, volume={39}, ISSN={0250-8060 1941-1707}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02508060.2014.956205}, DOI={10.1080/02508060.2014.956205}, abstractNote={Hydropower and irrigation developments to address rising demand for food and energy are modifying the water balance of the Mekong Basin. Infrastructure investment decisions are also frequently made from a sub-catchment perspective. This paper compares river flows with irrigation development stages in the Nam Ngum sub-basin where the potential for irrigation and hydropower expansion is largely untapped. It shows that full hydropower development in this basin allows irrigation water use to triple, even as it reduces competition with environmental flow requirements. The implications for the wider Mekong are, however, unclear, particularly given uncertainty over parallel transformations elsewhere in the basin.}, number={5}, journal={Water International}, publisher={Informa UK Limited}, author={Lacombe, G. and Douangsavanh, S. and Baker, J. and Hoanh, C.T. and Bartlett, R. and Jeuland, M. and Phongpachith, C.}, year={2014}, month={Jul}, pages={649–670} }
 @article{jeuland_baker_bartlett_lacombe_2014, title={The costs of uncoordinated infrastructure management in multi-reservoir river basins}, volume={9}, ISSN={1748-9326}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/105006}, DOI={10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/105006}, abstractNote={Though there are surprisingly few estimates of the economic benefits of coordinated infrastructure development and operations in international river basins, there is a widespread belief that improved cooperation is beneficial for managing water scarcity and variability. Hydro-economic optimization models are commonly-used for identifying efficient allocation of water across time and space, but such models typically assume full coordination. In the real world, investment and operational decisions for specific projects are often made without full consideration of potential downstream impacts. This paper describes a tractable methodology for evaluating the economic benefits of infrastructure coordination. We demonstrate its application over a range of water availability scenarios in a catchment of the Mekong located in Lao PDR, the Nam Ngum River Basin. Results from this basin suggest that coordination improves system net benefits from irrigation and hydropower by approximately 3–12% (or US$12-53 million/yr) assuming moderate levels of flood control, and that the magnitude of coordination benefits generally increases with the level of water availability and with inflow variability. Similar analyses would be useful for developing a systematic understanding of the factors that increase the costs of non-cooperation in river basin systems worldwide, and would likely help to improve targeting of efforts to stimulate complicated negotiations over water resources.}, number={10}, journal={Environmental Research Letters}, publisher={IOP Publishing}, author={Jeuland, Marc and Baker, Justin and Bartlett, Ryan and Lacombe, Guillaume}, year={2014}, month={Oct}, pages={105006} }
 @article{latta_baker_beach_rose_mccarl_2013, title={A multi-sector intertemporal optimization approach to assess the GHG implications of U.S. forest and agricultural biomass electricity expansion}, volume={19}, ISSN={1104-6899}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jfe.2013.05.003}, DOI={10.1016/j.jfe.2013.05.003}, abstractNote={Abstract This study applies an intertemporal partial equilibrium model of the U.S. Forest and Agricultural sectors to assess the market, land use, and greenhouse gas (GHG) implications of biomass electricity expansion. Results show how intertemporal optimization procedures can yield different biomass feedstock portfolios and GHG performance metrics at different points in time. We examine the implications of restricting feedstock eligibility, land use change, and commodity substitution to put our results in the context of previous forest-only modeling efforts. Our results highlight the importance of dynamic considerations and forest and agricultural sector interactions on projecting the GHG effects of biomass electricity expansion in the U.S.}, number={4}, journal={Journal of Forest Economics}, publisher={Now Publishers}, author={Latta, Gregory S. and Baker, Justin S. and Beach, Robert H. and Rose, Steven K. and McCarl, Bruce A.}, year={2013}, month={Dec}, pages={361–383} }
 @article{mosnier_havlík_valin_baker_murray_feng_obersteiner_mccarl_rose_schneider_2013, title={Alternative U.S. biofuel mandates and global GHG emissions: The role of land use change, crop management and yield growth}, volume={57}, ISSN={0301-4215}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.02.035}, DOI={10.1016/j.enpol.2013.02.035}, abstractNote={We investigate the impacts of the U.S. renewable fuel standard (RFS2) and several alternative biofuel policy designs on global GHG emissions from land use change and agriculture over the 2010–2030 horizon. Analysis of the scenarios relies on GLOBIOM, a global, multi-sectoral economic model based on a detailed representation of land use. Our results reveal that RFS2 would substantially increase the portion of agricultural land needed for biofuel feedstock production. U.S. exports of most agricultural products would decrease as long as the biofuel target would increase leading to higher land conversion and nitrogen use globally. In fact, higher levels of the mandate mean lower net emissions within the U.S. but when the emissions from the rest of the world are considered, the US biofuel policy results in almost no change on GHG emissions for the RFS2 level and higher global GHG emissions for higher levels of the mandate or higher share of conventional corn-ethanol in the mandate. Finally, we show that if the projected crop productivity would be lower globally, the imbalance between domestic U.S. GHG savings and additional GHG emissions in the rest of the world would increase, thus deteriorating the net global impact of U.S. biofuel policies.}, journal={Energy Policy}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Mosnier, A. and Havlík, P. and Valin, H. and Baker, J. and Murray, B. and Feng, S. and Obersteiner, M. and McCarl, B.A. and Rose, S.K. and Schneider, U.A.}, year={2013}, month={Jun}, pages={602–614} }
 @article{havlík_valin_mosnier_obersteiner_baker_herrero_rufino_schmid_2013, title={Crop Productivity and the Global Livestock Sector: Implications for Land Use Change and Greenhouse Gas Emissions}, volume={95}, ISSN={0002-9092 1467-8276}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aas085}, DOI={10.1093/ajae/aas085}, abstractNote={American Journal of Agricultural EconomicsVolume 95, Issue 2 p. 442-448 AAEA Meeting Invited Paper Session Crop Productivity and the Global Livestock Sector: Implications for Land Use Change and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Petr Havlík, Corresponding Author Petr Havlík havlikpt@iiasa.ac.at havlikpt@iiasa.ac.atSearch for more papers by this authorHugo Valin, Hugo ValinSearch for more papers by this authorAline Mosnier, Aline MosnierSearch for more papers by this authorMichael Obersteiner, Michael ObersteinerSearch for more papers by this authorJustin S. Baker, Justin S. BakerSearch for more papers by this authorMario Herrero, Mario HerreroSearch for more papers by this authorMariana C. Rufino, Mariana C. RufinoSearch for more papers by this authorErwin Schmid, Erwin SchmidSearch for more papers by this author Petr Havlík, Corresponding Author Petr Havlík havlikpt@iiasa.ac.at havlikpt@iiasa.ac.atSearch for more papers by this authorHugo Valin, Hugo ValinSearch for more papers by this authorAline Mosnier, Aline MosnierSearch for more papers by this authorMichael Obersteiner, Michael ObersteinerSearch for more papers by this authorJustin S. Baker, Justin S. BakerSearch for more papers by this authorMario Herrero, Mario HerreroSearch for more papers by this authorMariana C. Rufino, Mariana C. RufinoSearch for more papers by this authorErwin Schmid, Erwin SchmidSearch for more papers by this author First published: 06 December 2012 https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aas085Citations: 77 Petr Havlík (havlikpt@iiasa.ac.at) is researcher at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and at the International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya. Hugo Valin (valin@iiasa.ac.at), Aline Mosnier (mosnier@iiasa.ac.at) and Michael Obersteiner (oberstei@iiasa.ac.at) are researchers with the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. Justin S. Baker (justinbaker@rti.org) is researcher at RTI International. Mario Herrero (m.herrero@cgiar.org) and Mariana C. Rufino (m.rufino@cgiar.org) are researchers with the International Livestock Research Institute. Erwin Schmid (erwin.schmid@boku.ac.at) is Professor at the University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna. The research was supported by the EU-funded FP7 project ANIMALCHANGE (grant no. 266018). This article was presented in an invited paper session at the 2012 AAEA Annual meeting in Seattle, WA. The articles in these sessions are not subjected to the journal's standard refereeing process. Read the full textAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditWechat Citing Literature Volume95, Issue2January 2013Pages 442-448 RelatedInformation}, number={2}, journal={American Journal of Agricultural Economics}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Havlík, Petr and Valin, Hugo and Mosnier, Aline and Obersteiner, Michael and Baker, Justin S. and Herrero, Mario and Rufino, Mariana C. and Schmid, Erwin}, year={2013}, month={Jan}, pages={442–448} }
 @article{baker_murray_mccarl_feng_johansson_2013, title={Implications of Alternative Agricultural Productivity Growth Assumptions on Land Management, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and Mitigation Potential}, volume={95}, ISSN={0002-9092 1467-8276}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aas114}, DOI={10.1093/ajae/aas114}, abstractNote={American Journal of Agricultural EconomicsVolume 95, Issue 2 p. 435-441 AAEA Meeting Invited Paper Session Implications of Alternative Agricultural Productivity Growth Assumptions on Land Management, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and Mitigation Potential Justin S. Baker, Corresponding Author Justin S. Baker [email protected] [email protected]Search for more papers by this authorBrian C. Murray, Brian C. MurraySearch for more papers by this authorBruce A. McCarl, Bruce A. McCarlSearch for more papers by this authorSiyi Feng, Siyi FengSearch for more papers by this authorRobert Johansson, Robert JohanssonSearch for more papers by this author Justin S. Baker, Corresponding Author Justin S. Baker [email protected] [email protected]Search for more papers by this authorBrian C. Murray, Brian C. MurraySearch for more papers by this authorBruce A. McCarl, Bruce A. McCarlSearch for more papers by this authorSiyi Feng, Siyi FengSearch for more papers by this authorRobert Johansson, Robert JohanssonSearch for more papers by this author First published: 16 December 2012 https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aas114Citations: 17 Justin S. Baker ([email protected]) is a research economist at RTI International. Brian C. Murray ([email protected]) is Director of Economic Analysis at the Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions, Duke University. Bruce A. McCarl ([email protected]) is University Distinguished Professor at the Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University. Siyi Feng ([email protected]) is a research fellow at the Department of Agricultural and Food Economics, Queen's University of Belfast. Robert Johansson ([email protected]) is Deputy Chief Economist at the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Office of the Chief Economist. This article was presented in an invited paper session at the 2012 AAEA annual meeting in Seattle, WA. The articles in these sessions are not subjected to the journal's standard refereeing process. Read the full textAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Citing Literature Volume95, Issue2January 2013Pages 435-441 RelatedInformation}, number={2}, journal={American Journal of Agricultural Economics}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Baker, Justin S. and Murray, Brian C. and McCarl, Bruce A. and Feng, Siyi and Johansson, Robert}, year={2013}, month={Jan}, pages={435–441} }
 @inbook{baker_murray_2012, place={London}, title={An Emissions-Intensity Approach for Crediting Greenhouse Gas Mitigation in Agriculture: Reconciling Climate and Food Security Objectives in the Developing World}, booktitle={Climate Change Mitigation and Agriculture}, publisher={Earthscan}, author={Baker, J.S. and Murray, B.C.}, editor={Wollenberg, Eva and Nihart, Alison and Tapio-Bistrom, Marja-Liisa and Grieg-Gran, MaryanneEditors}, year={2012} }
 @article{galik_cooley_baker_2012, title={Analysis of the production and transaction costs of forest carbon offset projects in the USA}, volume={112}, ISSN={0301-4797}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.06.045}, DOI={10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.06.045}, abstractNote={Forest carbon offset project implementation costs, comprised of both production and transaction costs, could present an important barrier to private landowner participation in carbon offset markets. These costs likewise represent a largely undocumented component of forest carbon offset potential. Using a custom spreadsheet model and accounting tool, this study examines the implementation costs of different forest offset project types operating in different forest types under different accounting and sampling methodologies. Sensitivity results are summarized concisely through response surface regression analysis to illustrate the relative effect of project-specific variables on total implementation costs. Results suggest that transaction costs may represent a relatively small percentage of total project implementation costs - generally less than 25% of the total. Results also show that carbon accounting methods, specifically the method used to establish project baseline, may be among the most important factors in driving implementation costs on a per-ton-of-carbon-sequestered basis, dramatically increasing variability in both transaction and production costs. This suggests that accounting could be a large driver in the financial viability of forest offset projects, with transaction costs likely being of largest concern to those projects at the margin.}, journal={Journal of Environmental Management}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Galik, Christopher S. and Cooley, David M. and Baker, Justin S.}, year={2012}, month={Dec}, pages={128–136} }
 @article{murray_baker_2011, title={An output-based intensity approach for crediting greenhouse gas mitigation in agriculture: explanation and policy implications}, volume={1}, ISSN={2043-0779 2043-0787}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.3763/ghgmm.2010.0004}, DOI={10.3763/ghgmm.2010.0004}, abstractNote={US legislators have recently proposed output-based emissions intensity metrics as an approach to credit greenhouse gas (GHG) offsets from agriculture and other uncapped sectors. This article explains the features and rationale of the output-based offset (OBO) approach, outlines a candidate accounting methodology, discusses the potential advantages and limitations of such an approach relative to the area-based offset (ABO) approach that is standard practice in some settings, and introduces possible policy implications. By incentivizing improvements in agricultural efficiency, the OBO approach strives to achieve the dual goals of food security and climate change mitigation. It expands the toolkit for achieving reductions in agricultural emissions, rewards technological advancement in both emission reductions and yields, and offers promise for addressing the problem of accounting for leakage. But because it is based on improvements in GHG efficiency in agriculture rather than on absolute reductions, emissions and climate risks could continue to rise while credits are being issued. An OBO approach might work best as a transitional strategy to address emissions from sectors or countries likely to remain outside a strict regulatory cap. Because it is the total atmospheric concentration of GHGs that creates the environmental threat of climate change, policies should ultimately focus not on the intensity of emissions but rather on their absolute levels.}, number={1}, journal={Greenhouse Gas Measurement and Management}, publisher={Informa UK Limited}, author={Murray, Brian C. and Baker, Justin S.}, year={2011}, month={Feb}, pages={27–36} }
 @article{shaw_baker_2010, title={Models of Location Choice and Willingness to Pay to Avoid Hurricane Risks for Hurricane Katrina Evacuees}, volume={28}, number={1}, journal={International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters}, author={Shaw, W.D. and Baker, J.S.}, year={2010}, month={Mar}, pages={87–114} }
 @article{baker_mccarl_murray_rose_alig_adams_latta_beach_daigneault_2010, title={Net farm income and land use under a U.S. greenhouse gas cap and trade}, volume={7}, url={https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/36813}, journal={Agricultural and Applied Economics Association. Policy Issues}, author={Baker, J.S. and McCarl, B.A. and Murray, B.C. and Rose, S.K. and Alig, R.J. and Adams, D. and Latta, G. and Beach, R. and Daigneault, A.}, year={2010}, month={Apr} }
 @article{jackson_baker_2010, title={Opportunities and Constraints for Forest Climate Mitigation}, volume={60}, ISSN={1525-3244 0006-3568}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1525/bio.2010.60.9.7}, DOI={10.1525/bio.2010.60.9.7}, abstractNote={Reversing forest losses through restoration, improvement, and conservation is a critical goal for greenhouse gas mitigation. Here, we examine some ecological, demographic, and economic opportunities and constraints on forest-loss mitigation activities. Reduced deforestation and forest degradation could cut global deforestation rates in half by 2030, preserving 1.5 billion to 3 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide—equivalent (tCO2e) emissions yearly. Our new economic modeling for the United States suggests that greenhouse gas payments of up to $50 per tCO2e could reduce greenhouse gas emissions by more than 700 million tCO2e per year through afforestation, forest management, and bioelectricity generation. However, simulated carbon payments also imply the reduction of agricultural land area in the United States by 10% or more, decreasing agricultural exports and raising commodity food prices, imports, and leakage. Using novel transgenic eucalypts as our example, we predict selective breeding and genetic engineering can improve productivity per area, but maximizing productivity and biomass could make maintaining water supply, biodiversity, and other ecosystem services a challenge in a carbon-constrained world.}, number={9}, journal={BioScience}, publisher={Oxford University Press (OUP)}, author={Jackson, Robert B. and Baker, Justin S.}, year={2010}, month={Oct}, pages={698–707} }
 @misc{baker_2009, title={Carbon Finance: The Financial Implications of Climate Change, Sonia Labatt and Rodney R. White}, volume={1}, DOI={10.1080/19390450902783955}, number={2}, journal={Journal of Natural Resources Policy Research}, author={Baker, J.S.}, year={2009}, pages={205–209} }
 @article{baker_shaw_riddel_woodward_2009, title={Changes in subjective risks of hurricanes as time passes: analysis of a sample of Katrina evacuees}, volume={12}, ISSN={1366-9877 1466-4461}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13669870802452798}, DOI={10.1080/13669870802452798}, abstractNote={Using a quasi‐field experiment, we report on subjects' perceptions of the risks of hurricanes. All experimental subjects were displaced by either Hurricane Katrina or Rita, in New Orleans and other Gulf Coast areas, except for a small control group consisting of people who live in central Texas. We examine their perceptions of risks just after the hurricanes occurred, and over one year later to evaluate the change in subjective risk perceptions over time. A latent risk model is estimated in which subjective probabilities of hurricane strike risk are represented as a function of respondents' demographic characteristics and experiences following the storms.}, number={1}, journal={Journal of Risk Research}, publisher={Informa UK Limited}, author={Baker, Justin and Shaw, W. Douglass and Riddel, Mary and Woodward, Richard T.}, year={2009}, month={Jan}, pages={59–74} }
 @article{baker_shaw_bell_brody_riddel_woodward_neilson_2009, title={Explaining Subjective Risks of Hurricanes and the Role of Risks in Intended Moving and Location Choice Models}, volume={10}, ISSN={1527-6988 1527-6996}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(asce)1527-6988(2009)10:3(102)}, DOI={10.1061/(asce)1527-6988(2009)10:3(102)}, abstractNote={Using stated choice survey data we report on subjects’ perceptions of the risks of hurricanes and intended relocation decisions when faced with such risks. All of the subjects were displaced by either Hurricane Katrina or Rita, in New Orleans and other Gulf Coast areas in 2005. Results here suggest that subjective perceptions of risk are quite high as compared to scientific estimates of risk, and relocation decisions revealed from a discrete choice experiment are significantly determined by levels of hurricane strike risks.}, number={3}, journal={Natural Hazards Review}, publisher={American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)}, author={Baker, Justin and Shaw, W. Douglass and Bell, David and Brody, Sam and Riddel, Mary and Woodward, Richard T. and Neilson, William}, year={2009}, month={Aug}, pages={102–112} }
 @article{piñeiro_jobbágy_baker_murray_jackson_2009, title={Set-asides can be better climate investment than corn ethanol}, volume={19}, ISSN={1051-0761}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/08-0645.1}, DOI={10.1890/08-0645.1}, abstractNote={Although various studies have shown that corn ethanol reduces greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by displacing fossil fuel use, many of these studies fail to include how land-use history affects the net carbon balance through changes in soil carbon content. We evaluated the effectiveness and economic value of corn and cellulosic ethanol production for reducing net GHG emissions when produced on lands with different land-use histories, comparing these strategies with reductions achieved by set-aside programs such as the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). Depending on prior land use, our analysis shows that C releases from the soil after planting corn for ethanol may in some cases completely offset C gains attributed to biofuel generation for at least 50 years. More surprisingly, based on our comprehensive analysis of 142 soil studies, soil C sequestered by setting aside former agricultural land was greater than the C credits generated by planting corn for ethanol on the same land for 40 years and had equal or greater economic net present value. Once commercially available, cellulosic ethanol produced in set-aside grasslands should provide the most efficient tool for GHG reduction of any scenario we examined. Our results suggest that conversion of CRP lands or other set-aside programs to corn ethanol production should not be encouraged through greenhouse gas policies.}, number={2}, journal={Ecological Applications}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Piñeiro, Gervasio and Jobbágy, Esteban G. and Baker, Justin and Murray, Brian C. and Jackson, Robert B.}, year={2009}, month={Mar}, pages={277–282} }
 @article{willis_baker_2008, title={A Coasian Approach to Efficient Water Allocation of a Transboundary River}, volume={40}, ISSN={1074-0708 2056-7405}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1074070800023762}, DOI={10.1017/s1074070800023762}, abstractNote={The United States and Mexico recently resolved a decade-old water dispute that required Mexico to repay the accumulated water debt within one year. A Coasian analysis estimates the social welfare gains attainable to each country under an alternative debt repayment scheme that allows repayment over a longer time horizon and in a combination of dollars and water, instead of solely in water. Assuming average water supply conditions, under the agreed 1-year repayment contract, U.S. compensation value is 534% greater and Mexico's compensation cost is 60% less relative to when compensation is paid exclusively in water.}, number={2}, journal={Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics}, publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, author={Willis, David B. and Baker, Justin S.}, year={2008}, month={Aug}, pages={473–484} }
 @article{baker_willis_2006, title={Transboundary Water Resource Management and Conflict Resolution: A Coasian Strategic Negotiations Approach}, volume={5}, url={http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/92875/files/0502005.pdf}, number={2}, journal={Western Economics Forum}, author={Baker, J.S. and Willis, D.B.}, year={2006} }