@article{schreck iii_easterling_barsugli_coates_hoell_johnson_kunkel_labe_uehling_vose_et al._2024, title={A rapid response process for evaluating causes of extreme temperature events in the United States: The 2023 Texas/Louisiana heat wave as a prototype}, volume={3}, ISSN={["2752-5295"]}, DOI={10.1088/2752-5295/ad8028}, abstractNote={Abstract As climate attribution studies have become more common, routine processes are now being established for attribution analysis following extreme events. This study describes the prototype process being developed through a collaboration across NOAA, including monitoring tools as well as observational and model-based analysis of causal factors. The prolonged period of extreme heat in summer 2023 over Texas, Louisiana and adjacent areas provided a proving ground for this emerging capability. This event posed unique challenges to the initial process. The extreme heat lasted for most of the summer while most heat wave metrics have been designed for 3–7 day events. The eastern portion of the affected area also occurred within the so-called summer-time daytime warming hole where the warming trend in maximum temperatures has been mitigated wholly or in part by increased precipitation. The extreme temperature coincided with a strong—but not record—precipitation deficit over the region. Both observations and climate model simulations illustrate that the temperatures for a given precipitation deficit have warmed in recent decades. In other words, meteorological droughts today are hotter than their historical analogs providing a stronger attribution to anthropogenic forcing than for temperature alone. These findings were summarized in a prototype plain language report that was distributed to key stakeholders. Based on their feedback, the monitoring and assessment tools will continue to be refined, and the project is exploring other climate model large ensembles to increase the robustness of attribution for future events.
}, number={4}, journal={ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH-CLIMATE}, author={Schreck III, Carl J. and Easterling, David R. and Barsugli, Joseph J. and Coates, David A. and Hoell, Andrew and Johnson, Nathaniel C. and Kunkel, Kenneth E. and Labe, Zachary M. and Uehling, John and Vose, Russell S. and et al.}, year={2024}, month={Dec} }
 @article{uehling_schreck iii_2024, title={Observed Changes in Extreme Precipitation Associated with US Tropical Cyclones}, volume={37}, ISSN={["1520-0442"]}, DOI={10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0327.1}, abstractNote={Abstract Numerous recent tropical cyclones have caused extreme rainfall and flooding events in the CONUS. Climate change is contributing to heavier extreme rainfall around the world. Modeling studies have suggested that tropical cyclones may be particularly efficient engines for transferring the additional water vapor in the atmosphere into extreme rainfall. This paper develops a new indicator for climate change using the enhanced rainfall metric to evaluate how the frequency and/or intensity of extreme rainfall around tropical cyclones has changed. The enhanced rainfall metric relates the amount of rain from a storm over a given location to the 5-yr return period rainfall in that location to determine the severity of the event. The annual area exposed to tropical-cyclone-related 5-yr rainfall events is increasing, which makes it a compelling climate change indicator. Quantile regression illustrates that the distribution of tropical cyclone rainfall is also changing. For tropical storms, all quantiles are increasing. However, major hurricanes show large increases in their most extreme rainfall. This study does not attempt to make any detection claims (vs natural variability) or attribution of the observed trends to anthropogenic forcing. However, the sensitivity of the results to natural variability in tropical cyclone frequency was somewhat constrained by comparing 2 decades from the previous active era (1951–70) with two from the current era (2001–20). This comparison also shows that both the mean rainfall and the maximum rainfall associated with tropical cyclones are increasing over most areas of the eastern CONUS with the most significant increases from northern Alabama to the southern Appalachians. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to analyze the changes in frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation events associated with tropical cyclones with the goal of developing a new indicator for climate change. This is important because heavy rainfall and associated flooding is one of the primary causes of tropical cyclone destruction and fatalities, especially in inland locations away from where storms initially make landfall. Our results show that both the frequency and magnitude of extreme rainfall events from tropical cyclones have increased over the CONUS. The strongest storms (major hurricanes) also show more of an increase in extreme rainfall than storms of weaker intensities.}, number={14}, journal={JOURNAL OF CLIMATE}, author={Uehling, John and Schreck III, Carl J.}, year={2024}, month={Jul} }