@article{coulston_westfall_wear_edgar_prisley_treiman_abt_smith_2018, title={Annual Monitoring of US Timber Production: Rationale and Design}, volume={64}, ISSN={["1938-3738"]}, DOI={10.1093/forsci/fxy010}, abstractNote={Understanding roundwood production in the United States at fine spatial and temporal scales is needed to support a range of analyses for decision making. Currently, estimates of county-level roundwood production are available at various time intervals for different regions of the country and for different products. Here we present our reasoning for moving to an annual timber products monitoring program and further present a comparison of sample designs to facilitate an annual program without increased effort. We found that both probability proportional to size and stratified simple random sampling designs were viable options, but the stratified simple random sampling design provided more flexibility. This flexibility was deemed important to target emerging markets and to enable sampling with certainty of specific firms. Our results lay the foundations for moving to an annual timber products output monitoring design in support of market, sustainability, and policy analyses as well as projections.}, number={5}, journal={FOREST SCIENCE}, author={Coulston, John W. and Westfall, James A. and Wear, David N. and Edgar, Christopher B. and Prisley, Steven P. and Treiman, Thomas B. and Abt, Robert C. and Smith, W. Brad}, year={2018}, month={Oct}, pages={533–543} }
 @article{suttles_singh_vose_martin_emanuel_coulston_saia_crump_2018, title={Assessment of hydrologic vulnerability to urbanization and climate change in a rapidly changing watershed in the Southeast US}, volume={645}, ISSN={["1879-1026"]}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.06.287}, DOI={10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.06.287}, abstractNote={This study assessed the combined effects of increased urbanization and climate change on streamflow in the Yadkin-Pee Dee watershed (North Carolina, USA) and focused on the conversion from forest to urban land use, the primary land use transition occurring in the watershed. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to simulate future (2050–2070) streamflow and baseflow for four combined climate and land use scenarios across the Yadkin-Pee Dee River watershed and three subwatersheds. The combined scenarios pair land use change and climate change scenarios together. Compared to the baseline, projected streamflow increased in three out of four combined scenarios and decreased in one combined scenario. Baseflow decreased in all combined scenarios, but decreases were largest in subwatersheds that lost the most forest. The effects of land use change and climate change were additive, amplifying the increases in runoff and decreases in baseflow. Streamflow was influenced more strongly by climate change than land use change. However, for baseflow the reverse was true; land use change tended to drive baseflow more than climate change. Land use change was also a stronger driver than climate in the most urban subwatershed. In the most extreme land use and climate projection the volume of the 1-day, 100 year flood nearly doubled at the watershed outlet. Our results underscore the importance of forests as hydrologic regulators buffering streamflow and baseflow from hydrologic extremes. Additionally, our results suggest that land managers and policy makers need to consider the implications of forest loss on streamflow and baseflow when planning for future urbanization and climate change adaptation options.}, journal={SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT}, author={Suttles, Kelly M. and Singh, Nitin K. and Vose, James M. and Martin, Katherine L. and Emanuel, Ryan E. and Coulston, John W. and Saia, Sheila M. and Crump, Michael T.}, year={2018}, month={Dec}, pages={806–816} }
 @article{coulston_koch_smith_sapio_2008, title={Invasive forest pest surveillance: survey development and reliability}, volume={38}, ISSN={["0045-5067"]}, DOI={10.1139/X08-076}, abstractNote={ Worldwide, a large number of potential pest species are introduced to locations outside their native ranges; under the best possible prevention scheme, some are likely to establish one or more localized populations. A comprehensive early detection and rapid-response protocol calls for surveillance to determine if a pest has invaded additional locations outside its original area of introduction. In this manuscript, we adapt and spatially extend a two-stage sampling technique to determine the required sample size to substantiate freedom from an invasive pest with a known level of certainty. The technique, derived from methods for sampling livestock herds for disease presence, accounts for the fact that pest activity may be low at a coarse spatial scale (i.e., among forested landscapes) but high at a fine scale (i.e., within a given forested landscape). We illustrate the utility of the approach by generating a national-scale survey based on a risk map for a hypothetical forest pest species threatening the United States. These techniques provide a repeatable, cost-effective, practical framework for developing broad-scale surveys to substantiate freedom from non-native invasive forest pests with known statistical power. }, number={9}, journal={CANADIAN JOURNAL OF FOREST RESEARCH-REVUE CANADIENNE DE RECHERCHE FORESTIERE}, author={Coulston, John W. and Koch, Frank H. and Smith, William D. and Sapio, Frank J.}, year={2008}, month={Sep}, pages={2422–2433} }
 @article{coulston_riitters_mcroberts_reams_smith_2006, title={True versus perturbed forest inventory plot locations for modeling: a simulation study}, volume={36}, ISSN={["1208-6037"]}, DOI={10.1139/X05-265}, abstractNote={ USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis plot information is widely used for timber inventories, forest health assessments, and environmental risk analyses. With few exceptions, true plot locations are not revealed; the plot coordinates are manipulated to obscure the location of field plots and thereby preserve plot integrity. The influence of perturbed plot locations on the development and accuracy of statistical models is unknown. We tested the hypothesis that the influence is related to the spatial structure of the data used in the models. For ordinary kriging we examined the difference in mean square error based on true and perturbed plot locations across a range of spatial autocorrelations. We also examined the difference in mean square error for regression models developed with true and perturbed plot locations across a range of spatial autocorrelations and spatial resolutions. Perturbing plot locations did not significantly influence the accuracy of kriging estimates, but in some situations linear regression model development and accuracy were significantly influenced. Unless the independent variable has high spatial autocorrelation, only coarse spatial resolution data should be used to develop linear regression models. }, number={3}, journal={CANADIAN JOURNAL OF FOREST RESEARCH}, author={Coulston, John W. and Riitters, Kurt H. and McRoberts, Ronald E. and Reams, Greg A. and Smith, William D.}, year={2006}, month={Mar}, pages={801–807} }
 @article{mcroberts_holden_nelson_liknes_moser_lister_king_lapoint_coulston_smith_et al._2005, title={Estimating and circumventing the effects of perturbing and swapping inventory plot locations}, volume={103}, number={6}, journal={Journal of Forestry}, author={McRoberts, R. E. and Holden, G. R. and Nelson, M. D. and Liknes, G. C. and Moser, W. K. and Lister, A. J. and King, S. L. and Lapoint, E. B. and Coulston, J. W. and Smith, W. B. and et al.}, year={2005}, pages={275–279} }
 @article{coulston_ambrose_riiters_conkling_2005, title={Forest health monitoring: 2002 National Technical Report}, journal={Forest health monitoring : 2002 national technical report}, publisher={Asheville, NC : U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southern Research Station}, author={Coulston, J. and Ambrose, M. J. and Riiters, K. H. and Conkling, B. L.}, year={2005} }
 @article{coulston_ambrose_riiters_conkling_smith_2005, title={Forest health monitoring: 2003 National Technical Report}, journal={Forest health monitoring : 2003 national technical report}, publisher={Asheville, NC : U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southern Research Station}, author={Coulston, J. W. and Ambrose, M. J. and Riiters, K. H. and Conkling, B. L. and Smith, W. D.}, year={2005} }
 @article{riitters_coulston_2005, title={Hot spots of perforated forest in the eastern United States}, volume={35}, ISSN={["1432-1009"]}, DOI={10.1007/s00267-003-0220-1}, abstractNote={National assessments of forest fragmentation satisfy international biodiversity conventions, but they do not identify specific places where ecological impacts are likely. In this article, we identify geographic concentrations (hot spots) of forest located near holes in otherwise intact forest canopies (perforated forest) in the eastern United States, and we describe the proximate causes in terms of the non-forest land-cover types contained in those hot spots. Perforated forest, defined as a 0.09-ha unit of forest that is located at the center of a 7.29-ha neighborhood containing 60-99% forest with relatively low connectivity, was mapped over the eastern United States by using land-cover maps with roads superimposed. Statistically significant (P < 0.001) hot spots of high perforation rate (perforated area per unit area of forest) were then located by using a spatial scan statistic. Hot spots were widely distributed and covered 20.4% of the total area of the 10 ecological provinces examined, but 50.1% of the total hot-spot area was concentrated in only two provinces. In the central part of the study area, more than 90% of the forest edge in hot spots was attributed to anthropogenic land-cover types, whereas in the northern and southern parts it was more often associated with semi-natural land cover such as herbaceous wetlands.}, number={4}, journal={ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT}, author={Riitters, KH and Coulston, JW}, year={2005}, month={Apr}, pages={483–492} }
 @article{coulston_reams_mcroberts_smith_2005, title={Practical considerations when using perturbed Forest Inventory plot locations to develop spatial models: A case study}, journal={Proceedings of the Sixth Annual Forest Inventory and Analysis Symposium}, publisher={Washington: United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Service}, author={Coulston, J. W. and Reams, G. A. and McRoberts, R. E. and Smith, W. D.}, year={2005} }
 @article{coulston_riitters_smith_2004, title={A preliminary assessment of the Montreal process indicators of air pollution for the United States}, volume={95}, ISSN={["1573-2959"]}, DOI={10.1023/B:EMAS.0000029895.96868.f8}, abstractNote={Air pollutants pose a risk to forest health and vitality in the United States. Here we present the major findings from a national scale air pollution assessment that is part of the United States' 2003 Report on Sustainable Forests. We examine trends and the percent forest subjected to specific levels of ozone and wet deposition of sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium. Results are reported by Resource Planning Act (RPA) reporting region and integrated by forest type using multivariate clustering. Estimates of sulfate deposition for forested areas had decreasing trends (1994-2000) across RPA regions that were statistically significant for North and South RPA regions. Nitrate deposition rates were relatively constant for the 1994 to 2000 period, but the South RPA region had a statistically decreasing trend. The North and South RPA regions experienced the highest ammonium deposition rates and showed slightly decreasing trends. Ozone concentrations were highest in portions of the Pacific Coast RPA region and relatively high across much of the South RPA region. Both the South and Rocky Mountain RPA regions had an increasing trend in ozone exposure. Ozone-induced foliar injury to sensitive species was recorded in all regions except for the Rocky Mountain region. The multivariate analysis showed that the oak-hickory and loblolly-shortleaf pine forest types were generally exposed to more air pollution than other forest types, and the redwood, western white pine, and larch forest types were generally exposed to less. These findings offer a new approach to national air pollution assessments and are intended to help focus research and planning initiatives related to air pollution and forest health.}, number={1-3}, journal={ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT}, author={Coulston, JW and Riitters, KH and Smith, GC}, year={2004}, month={Jul}, pages={57–74} }
 @article{coulston_riitters_2005, title={Preserving biodiversity under current and future climates: a case study}, volume={14}, DOI={10.1111/j.1466-822x.2004.00135.x}, abstractNote={ABSTRACTAim  The conservation of biological and genetic diversity is a major goal of reserve systems at local, regional, and national levels. The International Union for the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources suggests a 12% threshold (area basis) for adequate protection of biological and genetic diversity of a plant community. However, thresholds based on area may protect only a small portion of the total diversity if the locations are chosen without regard to the variation within the community. The objectives of this study were to demonstrate methods to apply a coarse‐filter approach for identifying gaps in the current reserve system of the Psuedotsuga menziesii (Douglas‐fir) forest type group based on current climatic conditions and a global climate change scenario.Location  Western United States.Method  We used an ecological envelope approach that was based on seven bioclimatic factors, two topographic factors, and two edaphic factors. Multivariate factor analysis was then used to reduce the envelope to two dimensions. The relative density of habitat and protected areas were identified in each part of the envelope based on the current climate and potential future climate. We used this information to identify gaps in the reserve system.Results  Although the protected areas occurred in all parts of the envelope, most existed in colder and drier areas. This was true for both the current climate and potential future climate.Main conclusion  To protect more of the ecological envelope, future conservation efforts would be most effective in western Oregon, north‐western Washington, and north‐western California.}, number={1}, journal={Global Ecology and Biogeography}, author={Coulston, J. W. and Riitters, K. H.}, year={2005}, pages={31–38} }
 @article{riitters_wickham_coulston_2004, title={Use of road maps in national assessments of forest fragmentation in the United States}, volume={9}, DOI={10.5751/es-01210-090213}, abstractNote={The question of incorporating road maps into U.S. national assessments of forest fragmentation has been a contentious issue, but there has not been a comparative national analysis to inform the debate. Using data and indices from previous national assessments, we compared fragmentation as calculated from high-resolution land-cover maps alone (Method 1) and after superimposing detailed road maps (Method 2). There was more overall fragmentation with Method 2. However, because roads were often adjacent to other nonforest land cover, Method 1 typically detected > 80% of the forest edge and > 88% of the fragmentation of core, i.e., intact, forest that was detected by Method 2. Indices based on individual patch size changed much more for Method 2; for example, area-weighted average patch size was typically 50-90% smaller. The relative geographic distribution of core forest was the same for both methods. Our results emphasize that the question of incorporating road maps must consider the purpose of the assessment, the characteristics of the data, and the relative sensitivities of indices to different patterns of fragmentation. As a practical matter, unless road-caused fragmentation is of special interest, land-cover maps alone may provide an adequate representation of the geography of forest fragmentation.}, number={2}, journal={Ecology and Society}, author={Riitters, K. and Wickham, J. and Coulston, J.}, year={2004} }
 @article{smith_coulston_jepsen_prichard_2003, title={A national ozone biomonitoring program - Results from field surveys of ozone sensitive plants in northeastern forests (1994-2000)}, volume={87}, ISSN={["0167-6369"]}, DOI={10.1023/A:1024879527764}, abstractNote={Ozone biomonitoring is a detection and monitoring technique that involves documenting ozone-induced visible injury to known ozone-sensitive species under conditions of ambient exposure. The USDA Forest Service administers a long-term, nationwide ozone biomonitoring program to address public and scientific concerns about ozone impacts on forest health. A systematic grid is used as the basis for biomonitoring site locations. At each site, trained field crews evaluate a maximum of thirty plants of up to six species and record the amount and severity of leaf-injury on individual plants. Injury from ozone was found more often on biomonitoring sites in the eastern Unites States than in the interior or west-coast areas. Further results from the northeast reveal that in any year, there is a higher percentage of ozone-injured plants with more severe symptoms in areas with relatively high ozone concentrations than in areas with relatively low ozone. In very dry years (e.g., 1999) the percentage of injured plants and injury severity estimates are both sharply reduced even though ambient ozone exposures are high. These findings demonstrate that biomonitoring data provide meaningful evidence of when high ozone concentrations during the growing season have biological significance. Any assessment of ozone stress in the forest environment must include both biomonitoring (i.e., plant response) and air quality data to be complete.}, number={3}, journal={ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT}, author={Smith, G and Coulston, J and Jepsen, E and Prichard, T}, year={2003}, month={Sep}, pages={271–291} }
 @article{riitters_wickham_coulston_2004, title={A preliminary assessment of Montreal Process indicators of forest fragmentation for the United States}, volume={91}, ISSN={["1573-2959"]}, DOI={10.1023/B:EMAS.0000009240.65355.92}, abstractNote={As part of the U.S. 2003 National Report on Sustainable Forests, four metrics of forest fragmentation--patch size, edge amount, inter-patch distance, and patch contrast--were measured within 137744 non-overlapping 5625 ha analysis units on land-cover maps derived from satellite imagery for the 48 conterminous States. The perimeter of a typical forest patch is about 100 m from the perimeter of its nearest neighbor, except when there is not much forest, in which case that distance is 200 to 300 m. A typical analysis unit has from 10 to 40% as much forest edge as it could possibly have, given the amount of forest present. Most analysis units contain a large number of patches that are less than one hectare in size, and about 10% contain one or more 2000 to 5000 ha patches. Forest often defines the background landscape, and patch contrast is generally either very high or very low in eastern regions and intermediate in western regions. Many research needs were identified by this experimental analysis of available data and metrics.}, number={1-3}, journal={ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT}, author={Riitters, KH and Wickham, JD and Coulston, JW}, year={2004}, month={Feb}, pages={257–276} }
 @article{coulston_riitters_2003, title={Geographic analysis of forest health indicators using spatial scan statistics}, volume={31}, ISSN={["1432-1009"]}, DOI={10.1007/s00267-002-0023-9}, abstractNote={Geographically explicit analysis tools are needed to assess forest health indicators that are measured over large regions. Spatial scan statistics can be used to detect spatial or spatiotemporal clusters of forests representing hotspots of extreme indicator values. This paper demonstrates the approach through analyses of forest fragmentation indicators in the southeastern United States and insect and pathogen indicators in the Pacific Northwest United States. The scan statistic detected four spatial clusters of fragmented forest including a hotspot in the Piedmont and Coastal Plain region. Three recurring clusters of insect and pathogen occurrence were found in the Pacific Northwest. Spatial scan statistics are a powerful new tool that can be used to identify potential forest health problems.}, number={6}, journal={ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT}, author={Coulston, JW and Riitters, KH}, year={2003}, month={Jun}, pages={764–773} }
 @article{riitters_coulston_wickham_2003, title={Localizing national fragmentation statistics with forest type maps}, volume={101}, number={4}, journal={Journal of Forestry}, author={Riitters, K. H. and Coulston, J. W. and Wickham, J. D.}, year={2003}, pages={18–22} }
 @article{coulston_smith_smith_2003, title={Regional assessment of ozone sensitive tree species using bioindicator plants}, volume={83}, ISSN={["0167-6369"]}, DOI={10.1023/A:1022578506736}, abstractNote={Tropospheric ozone occurs at phytotoxic levels in the northeastern and mid-Atlantic regions of the United States. Quantifying possible regional-scale impacts of ambient ozone on forest tree species is difficult and is confounded by other factors, such as moisture and light, which influence the uptake of ozone by plants. Biomonitoring provides an approach to document direct foliar injury irrespective of direct measure of ozone uptake. We used bioindicator and field plot data from the USDA Forest Service to identify tree species likely to exhibit regional-scale ozone impacts. Approximately 24% of sampled sweetgum (Liquidambar styraciflua), 15% of sampled loblolly pine (Pinus taeda), and 12% of sampled black cherry (Prunus serotina) trees were in the highest risk category. Sweetgum and loblolly pine trees were at risk on the coastal plain of Maryland, Virginia and Delaware. Black cherry trees were at risk on the Allegheny Plateau (Pennsylvania), in the Allegheny Mountains (Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Maryland) as well as coastal plain areas of Maryland and Virginia. Our findings indicate a need for more in-depth study of actual impacts on growth and reproduction of these three species.}, number={2}, journal={ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT}, author={Coulston, JW and Smith, GC and Smith, WD}, year={2003}, month={Apr}, pages={113–127} }