@article{ssembatya_kern_oikonomou_voisin_burleyson_akdemir_2024, title={Dual Impacts of Space Heating Electrification and Climate Change Increase Uncertainties in Peak Load Behavior and Grid Capacity Requirements in Texas}, volume={12}, ISSN={["2328-4277"]}, url={https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004443}, DOI={10.1029/2024EF004443}, abstractNote={Abstract Around 60% of households in Texas currently rely on electricity for space heating. As decarbonization efforts increase, non‐electrified households could adopt electric heat pumps, significantly increasing peak (highest) electricity demand in winter. Simultaneously, anthropogenic climate change is expected to increase temperatures, the potential for summer heat waves, and associated electricity demand for cooling. Uncertainty regarding the timing and magnitude of these concurrent changes raises questions about how they will jointly affect the seasonality of peak demand, firm capacity requirements, and grid reliability. This study investigates the net effects of residential space heating electrification and climate change on long‐term demand patterns and load shedding potential, using climate change projections, a predictive load model, and a direct current optimal power flow (DCOPF) model of the Texas grid. Results show that full electrification of residential space heating by replacing existing fossil fuel use with higher efficiency heat pumps could significantly improve reliability under hotter futures. Less efficient heat pumps may result in more severe winter peaking events and increased reliability risks. As heating electrification intensifies, system planners will need to balance the potential for greater resource adequacy risk caused by shifts in seasonal peaking behavior alongside the benefits (improved efficiency and reductions in emissions).}, number={6}, journal={EARTHS FUTURE}, author={Ssembatya, Henry and Kern, Jordan D. and Oikonomou, Konstantinos and Voisin, Nathalie and Burleyson, Casey D. and Akdemir, Kerem Ziya}, year={2024}, month={Jun} }
 @article{akdemir_robertson_oikonomou_kern_voisin_hanif_bhattacharya_2023, title={Opportunities for wave energy in bulk power system operations}, volume={352}, ISSN={["1872-9118"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.121845}, abstractNote={Wave energy resources have high, yet largely untapped potential as candidate generation technology. In this paper, we perform a data-driven analysis to characterize the impact of wave energy integration on bulk-scale power systems and market operations. Through data-driven sensitivity studies centered on an optimization-based production cost modeling formulation, our work characterizes the inflection point beyond which wave integration starts impacting power system operations, considering present day transmission infrastructure. Furthermore, our analysis also considers the joint effects of wave energy integration and system-wide transmission expansion. Finally, potential resilience scenarios such as wildfire-driven transmission contingencies and heat wave events are investigated, whereby the contributions of grid-integrated wave energy in alleviating the effects of the resilience events are analyzed. As our demonstration test bed, we consider a reduced-order network topology for the U.S. Western Interconnection with wave energy generation integrated at carefully selected sites across the coastal areas of Washington, Oregon, and northern California. Our results indicate that over a representative year of operations, wave energy integration systematically reduces locational marginal prices (LMPs) of energy and price volatility, especially during periods of high wave resource availability (winter months for the U.S. west coast). Average, maximum, and minimum of hourly LMPs over a typical year of operation was reduced by 2.95, 51.28, and 1.13 $/MWh respectively (over a baseline scenario with no wave energy integration), when the selected network model had a total of 5000 MW wave power installed capacity during the representative year of study. The effects of wave energy integration can remain localized with existing transmission infrastructure (identified to be most pronounced in the Pacific Northwest region in the example we studied). However, with concurrent transmission expansion, the impacts of wave energy integration are likely to have a higher geographical spread. Our results also indicate that wave energy may be able to assist power system operations during resilience events such as major transmission contingencies and heat wave events, although such benefits might be dependent on factors such as proximity of affected area to wave resources, availability of adequate resource potential and adequate transmission capacity.}, journal={APPLIED ENERGY}, author={Akdemir, Kerem Ziya and Robertson, Bryson and Oikonomou, Konstantinos and Kern, Jordan and Voisin, Nathalie and Hanif, Sarmad and Bhattacharya, Saptarshi}, year={2023}, month={Dec} }
 @article{akdemir_kern_lamontagne_2022, title={Assessing risks for New England's wholesale electricity market from wind power losses during extreme winter storms}, volume={251}, ISSN={["1873-6785"]}, DOI={10.1016/j.energy.2022.123886}, abstractNote={In the United States, New England faces difficulties from severe winter weather, during which its power grid simultaneously experiences high natural gas prices and electricity demand, leading to spikes in wholesale electricity prices. In recent years, a significant amount of offshore wind power capacity has been planned for the region, and previous studies have suggested the presence of offshore wind could lower emissions and market prices during cold snaps. However, there has been limited consideration of potential wind power losses during extreme winter weather due to excessive wind speeds, which could lead to sudden losses of wind power. This aim of this study is to quantify risks associated with sudden wind power losses during extreme winter weather, especially the potential for these events to cause spikes in the wholesale electricity price. Results suggest that these so-called wind turbine "cut-out" events likely represent a minor risk compared to the loss of wind power due to low wind speeds and sudden drops in wind speeds during summer, when demand for electricity is higher. Overall, the benefits of having offshore wind power during extreme winter weather appear to outweigh the risks associated with relatively rare cut-out events caused by excessive wind speeds.}, journal={ENERGY}, author={Akdemir, Kerem Ziya and Kern, Jordan D. and Lamontagne, Jonathan}, year={2022}, month={Jul} }