@article{fernandes_bell_muñoz_2023, title={Subseasonal fire forecast in the Amazon using week-2 precipitation forecast combined with a vegetation health indicator}, url={https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-2085}, DOI={10.5194/egusphere-egu23-2085}, abstractNote={Numerical predictions for a lead time of 2 to 4 weeks, a timescale known as subseasonal, has only in recent years begun transitioning from research to operational settings. One experiment dedicated to that effort is the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX). In here, SubX multi-model ensemble (MME) mean precipitation forecast (2017-2021) for days 8 to 14 (week-2 forecast) is used as a covariate in logistic regression models to predict fire risk in the Amazon. The hybrid (dynamical and statistical) modelling approach describes the NextGen methodology aimed at improving forecast outcomes at the seasonal and subseasonal time scales. In a complementary experiment, a vegetation health index (VHI) is added to SubX precipitation forecasts as a predictor to fires. The findings show that fire risk can be skillfully assessed in most of the Amazon where fires occur regularly. In some sectors, SubX week-2 precipitation alone is a reliable predictor of fire risk, but the addition of VHI results both in (i) a larger portion of the Amazon domain with skillful forecasts and; (ii) higher skill in some sectors. The added information provided by VHI as a predictor is most relevant where the mosaic of land covers includes savannas and grassland, whereas SubX precipitation can be used as the sole predictor for week-2 fire risk forecast where the mosaic of land cover is dominated by forests. The operationalization of the methods presented in this study could allow for better preparedness and fire risk reduction in the Amazon with a lead time greater than a week.}, author={Fernandes, Katia and Bell, Michael and Muñoz, Ángel}, year={2023}, month={May} }
 @article{fernandes_bell_muñoz_2022, title={Combining precipitation forecasts and vegetation health to predict fire risk at subseasonal timescale in the Amazon}, volume={17}, url={https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac76d8}, DOI={10.1088/1748-9326/ac76d8}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={7}, journal={Environmental Research Letters}, publisher={IOP Publishing}, author={Fernandes, Kátia and Bell, Michael and Muñoz, Ángel G}, year={2022}, month={Jul}, pages={074009} }
 @article{venturieri_oliveira_igawa_fernandes_adami_júnior_almeida_silva_cabral_pinto_et al._2022, title={The Sustainable Expansion of the Cocoa Crop in the State of Pará and Its Contribution to Altered Areas Recovery and Fire Reduction}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/jgis.2022.143016}, DOI={10.4236/jgis.2022.143016}, abstractNote={The state of Pará, located in the Amazon region of Brazil, has observed in recent years an increase in cocoa ( Theobroma cacao ) cultivation and has become the largest producer in Brazil. Due to its physiological characteristics, cacao is cultivated in native forests understory or under the shade produced by fast-growing native tree species, serving as an important species for restoration of degraded areas. However, mapping and monitoring cocoa plantation using optical sensor images is a challenge given its botanical and arboreal characteristics that can be confused with other native species at various stages of secondary regrowth. Agroforestry systems are important components of sustainable production in the Amazon and our work sought to better describe the evolution of cocoa plantations in terms of their historical expansion, farming properties}, journal={Journal of Geographic Information System}, author={Venturieri, Adriano and Oliveira, Rodrigo Rafael Souza and Igawa, Tassio Koiti and Fernandes, Katia De Avila and Adami, Marcos and Júnior, M. and Almeida, Cláudio Aparecido and Silva, Luiz Guilherme Teixeira and Cabral, Ana I. R. and Pinto, João Felipe Kneipp Cerqueira and et al.}, year={2022} }
 @article{saatchi_longo_xu_yang_abe_andré_aukema_carvalhais_cadillo-quiroz_cerbu_et al._2021, title={Detecting vulnerability of humid tropical forests to multiple stressors}, volume={4}, DOI={10.1016/j.oneear.2021.06.002}, abstractNote={Humid tropical forests play a dominant role in the functioning of Earth but are under increasing threat from changes in land use and climate. How forest vulnerability varies across space and time and what level of stress forests can tolerate before facing a tipping point are poorly understood. Here, we develop a tropical forest vulnerability index (TFVI) to detect and evaluate the vulnerability of global tropical forests to threats across space and time. We show that climate change together with land-use change have slowed the recovery rate of forest carbon cycling. Temporal autocorrelation, as an indicator of this slow recovery, increases substantially for above-ground biomass, gross primary production, and evapotranspiration when climate stress reaches a critical level. Forests in the Americas exhibit extensive vulnerability to these stressors, while in Africa, forests show relative resilience to climate, and in Asia reveal more vulnerability to land use and fragmentation. TFVI can systematically track the response of tropical forests to multiple stressors and provide early-warning signals for regions undergoing critical transitions.}, number={7}, journal={One Earth}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Saatchi, Sassan and Longo, Marcos and Xu, Liang and Yang, Yan and Abe, Hitofumi and André, Michel and Aukema, Juliann E. and Carvalhais, Nuno and Cadillo-Quiroz, Hinsby and Cerbu, Gillian Ann and et al.}, year={2021}, month={Jul}, pages={988–1003} }
 @article{granato‐souza_stahle_torbenson_howard_barbosa_feng_fernandes_schöngart_2020, title={Multidecadal Changes in Wet Season Precipitation Totals Over the Eastern Amazon}, volume={47}, url={https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087478}, DOI={10.1029/2020GL087478}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={8}, journal={Geophysical Research Letters}, publisher={American Geophysical Union (AGU)}, author={Granato‐Souza, Daniela and Stahle, David W. and Torbenson, Max C.A. and Howard, Ian M. and Barbosa, Ana Carolina and Feng, Song and Fernandes, Katia and Schöngart, Jochen}, year={2020}, month={Apr} }
 @article{david_torbenson_howard_granato-souza_barbosa_feng_schöngart_lopez_villalba_villanueva_et al._2020, title={Pan American interactions of Amazon precipitation, streamflow, and tree growth extremes}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ababc6}, DOI={10.1088/1748-9326/ababc6}, abstractNote={Abstract}, journal={Environmental Research Letters}, author={David and Torbenson, M C A and Howard, I M and Granato-Souza, Daniela and Barbosa, A C and Feng, S and Schöngart, J and Lopez, L and Villalba, R and Villanueva, J and et al.}, year={2020}, month={Oct} }
 @article{improving seasonal precipitation forecast for agriculture in the orinoquía region of colombia_2019, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-19-0122.1}, DOI={10.1175/waf-d-19-0122.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, journal={Weather and Forecasting}, year={2019}, month={Dec} }
 @article{predictability of seasonal precipitation across major crop growing areas in colombia_2018, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2018.09.001}, DOI={10.1016/j.cliser.2018.09.001}, abstractNote={Agriculture is one of the sectors that has greatly benefitted from the establishment of climate services. In Colombia, interannual climate variability can disrupt agricultural production, lower farmers' incomes and increase market prices. Increasing demand thus exists for agro-climatic services in the country. Fulfilling such demand requires robust and consistent approaches for seasonal climate forecasting. Here, we assess seasonal precipitation predictability and forecast skill at agriculturally-relevant timescales for five departments that represent key growing areas of major staple crops (rice, maize, and beans). Analyses use Canonical Correlation Analysis, with both observed SSTs and modeled (NCEP-CFSv2) SSTs, as well as with CFSv2 predicted precipitation fields (through a Model-Output-Statistics analysis). Some 74.4% of the forecast situations analyzed (5 departments ∗ 4 seasons ∗ 3 predictors ∗ 3 lead times) showed correlation-based goodness index (Kendall’s tau, τ-) values above 0.1, 38.8% above 0.2, and 18.8% above 0.3. Predictability was limited towards eastern Colombia, and during wet periods of the year in the Inter-Andean Valleys. Importantly, results were consistent between ERSST and CFSv2-driven forecasts, implying that both can offer valuable outlooks for Colombia. While our study is a first important step toward the establishment of a sustainable and successful climate service for agriculture in Colombia, further work is required to (1) improve seasonal forecast skill; (2) link seasonal forecasts to agricultural modelling applications; (3) design appropriate delivery means; and (4) establish stakeholder-driven processes that allow two-way communication between forecast issuing institutions (e.g. IDEAM–Colombian Meteorological Service) and famers’ organizations and farming communities.}, journal={Climate Services}, year={2018}, month={Dec} }
 @article{understanding the roles of fuels, climate and people in predicting fire: taking the long view_2018, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.22498/pages.26.1.41}, DOI={10.22498/pages.26.1.41}, journal={Past Global Changes Magazine}, year={2018}, month={Jun} }
 @article{climate change and sugarcane expansion increase hantavirus infection risk_2017, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005705}, DOI={10.1371/journal.pntd.0005705}, abstractNote={Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome (HCPS) is a disease caused by Hantavirus, which is highly virulent for humans. High temperatures and conversion of native vegetation to agriculture, particularly sugarcane cultivation can alter abundance of rodent generalist species that serve as the principal reservoir host for HCPS, but our understanding of the compound effects of land use and climate on HCPS incidence remains limited, particularly in tropical regions. Here we rely on a Bayesian model to fill this research gap and to predict the effects of sugarcane expansion and expected changes in temperature on Hantavirus infection risk in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The sugarcane expansion scenario was based on historical data between 2000 and 2010 combined with an agro-environment zoning guideline for the sugar and ethanol industry. Future evolution of temperature anomalies was derived using 32 general circulation models from scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (Representative greenhouse gases Concentration Pathways adopted by IPCC). Currently, the state of São Paulo has an average Hantavirus risk of 1.3%, with 6% of the 645 municipalities of the state being classified as high risk (HCPS risk ≥ 5%). Our results indicate that sugarcane expansion alone will increase average HCPS risk to 1.5%, placing 20% more people at HCPS risk. Temperature anomalies alone increase HCPS risk even more (1.6% for RCP4.5 and 1.7%, for RCP8.5), and place 31% and 34% more people at risk. Combined sugarcane and temperature increases led to the same predictions as scenarios that only included temperature. Our results demonstrate that climate change effects are likely to be more severe than those from sugarcane expansion. Forecasting disease is critical for the timely and efficient planning of operational control programs that can address the expected effects of sugarcane expansion and climate change on HCPS infection risk. The predicted spatial location of HCPS infection risks obtained here can be used to prioritize management actions and develop educational campaigns.}, journal={PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases}, year={2017}, month={Jul} }
 @article{fragmentation increases wind disturbance impacts on forest structure and carbon stocks in a western amazonian landscape_2017, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/eap.1576}, DOI={10.1002/eap.1576}, abstractNote={Abstract}, journal={Ecological Applications}, year={2017}, month={Sep} }
 @article{heightened fire probability in indonesia in non-drought conditions: the effect of increasing temperatures_2017, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6884}, DOI={10.1088/1748-9326/aa6884}, abstractNote={In Indonesia, drought driven fires occur typically during the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation. This was the case of the events of 1997 and 2015 that resulted in months-long hazardous atmospheric pollution levels in Equatorial Asia and record greenhouse gas emissions. Nonetheless, anomalously active fire seasons have also been observed in non-drought years. In this work, we investigated the impact of temperature on fires and found that when the July-October (JASO) period is anomalously dry, the sensitivity of fires to temperature is modest. In contrast, under normal-to-wet conditions, fire probability increases sharply when JASO is anomalously warm. This describes a regime in which an active fire season is not limited to drought years. Greater susceptibility to fires in response to a warmer environment finds support in the high evapotranspiration rates observed in normal-to-wet and warm conditions in Indonesia. We also find that fire probability in wet JASOs would be considerably less sensitive to temperature were not for the added effect of recent positive trends. Near-term regional climate projections reveal that, despite negligible changes in precipitation, a continuing warming trend will heighten fire probability over the next few decades especially in non-drought years. Mild fire seasons currently observed in association with wet conditions and cool temperatures will become rare events in Indonesia.}, journal={Environmental Research Letters}, year={2017}, month={May} }
 @article{local ecological knowledge and incremental adaptation to changing flood patterns in the amazon delta_2016, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11625-015-0352-2}, DOI={10.1007/s11625-015-0352-2}, journal={Sustainability Science}, year={2016}, month={Jul} }
 @article{climate, landowner residency, and land cover predict local scale fire activity in the western amazon_2015, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.009}, DOI={10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.009}, abstractNote={The incidence of escaped agricultural fire has recently been increasing in the Western Amazon, driven by climate variability, land use change, and changes in patterns of residency and land occupation. Preventing and mitigating the negative impacts of fire in the Amazon require a comprehensive understanding not only of what the drivers of fire activity are, but also how these drivers interact and vary across scales. Here, we combine multi-scalar data on land use, climate, and landowner residency to disentangle the drivers of fire activity over 10 years (2001–2010) on individual landholdings in a fire-prone region of the Peruvian Amazon. We examined the relative importance of and interactions between climate variability (drought intensity), land occupation (in particular, landowner absenteeism), and land cover variables (cover of fallow and pasture) for predicting both fire occurrence (whether or not fire was detected on a farm in a given year) and fire size. Drought intensity was the most important predictor of fire occurrence, but land-cover type and degree of landowner absenteeism increased fire probability when conditions were dry enough. On the other hand, drought intensity did not stand out relative to other significant predictors in the fire size model, where degree of landowner absenteeism in a village and percent cover of fallow in a village were also strongly associated with fire size. We also investigated to what extent these variables measured at the individual landholding versus the village scale influenced fire activity. While the predictors measured at the landholding and village scales were approximately of equal importance for modeling fire occurrence, only village scale predictors were important in the model of fire size. These results demonstrate that the relative importance of various drivers of fire activity can vary depending on the scale at which they are measured and the scale of analysis. Additionally, we highlight how a full understanding of the drivers of fire activity should go beyond fire occurrence to consider other metrics of fire activity such as fire size, as implications for fire prevention and mitigation can be different depending on the model considered. Drought early warning systems may be most effective for preventing fire in dry years, but management to address the impacts of landowner absenteeism, such as bolstering community fire control efforts in high-risk areas, could help minimize the size of fires when they do occur. Thus, interventions should focus on minimizing fire size as well as preventing fires altogether, especially because fire is an inexpensive and effective management tool that has been in use for millennia.}, journal={Global Environmental Change}, year={2015}, month={Mar} }
 @article{fernandes_giannini_verchot_baethgen_pinedo‐vasquez_2015, title={Decadal covariability of Atlantic SSTs and western Amazon dry‐season hydroclimate in observations and CMIP5 simulations}, volume={42}, url={https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL063911}, DOI={10.1002/2015GL063911}, abstractNote={Abstract}, number={16}, journal={Geophysical Research Letters}, publisher={American Geophysical Union (AGU)}, author={Fernandes, Katia and Giannini, Alessandra and Verchot, Louis and Baethgen, Walter and Pinedo‐Vasquez, Miguel}, year={2015}, month={Aug}, pages={6793–6801} }
 @article{seth_fernandes_camargo_2015, title={Two summers of São Paulo drought: Origins in the western tropical Pacific}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2015gl066314}, DOI={10.1002/2015gl066314}, abstractNote={Abstract}, journal={Geophysical Research Letters}, author={Seth, Anji and Fernandes, Kátia and Camargo, Suzana J.}, year={2015}, month={Dec} }
 @article{climate and environmental monitoring for decision making_2014, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/2194-6434-1-16}, DOI={10.1186/2194-6434-1-16}, abstractNote={As human populations grow, so do the resource demands imposed on ecosystems and the impacts of our global footprint. Natural resources are not invulnerable, nor infinitely available. The environmental impacts of anthropogenic actions are becoming more apparent – air and water quality are increasingly compromised, pests and diseases are extending beyond their historical boundaries, and deforestation is exacerbating flooding downstream and loss of biodiversity. Society is increasingly becoming aware that ecosystem services are not only limited, but also that they are threatened by human activities. The need to better consider long-term ecosystem health and its role in enabling human habitation and economic activity is urgent. In this context IRI conducts research to understand the impact of climate and environmental changes on different sectors including agriculture, water management, human health, and natural disasters. Through exhaustive, rigorous evaluation, analysis and interpretation of remotely-sensed products and in-situ measurements, IRI ensures its partners have access to the most reliable and relevant information about the climate and environment in a format that best informs their decision making and planning. We focus on monitoring satellite-derived and in-situ estimates of precipitation, temperature, vegetation, water bodies, evapotranspiration, and land cover. Ultimately, the new products developed at IRI in partnership with other institutions at national (e.g. NOAA, NASA, USGS) and international (e.g. National Meteorology Agencies, UN FAO) levels are integrated into operational early-warning systems for health, natural disasters, agriculture, and food security. The new products which monitor in almost real-time climate and environmental conditions are made available through two online data bases at IRI called IRI Data Library and Map Room. In this paper we present the products developed at IRI and how they are integrated into Early Warning Systems (EWS). We also discuss IRI’s experience in linking EWS into decisions and policies using the fire early warning system as a concrete example.}, journal={Earth Perspectives}, year={2014} }
 @article{gutiérrez-vélez_uriarte_defries_pinedo-vásquez_fernandes_ceccato_baethgen_padoch_2014, title={Land cover change interacts with drought severity to change fire regimes in Western Amazonia}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/13-2101.1}, DOI={10.1890/13-2101.1}, abstractNote={Fire is becoming a pervasive driver of environmental change in Amazonia and is expected to intensify, given projected reductions in precipitation and forest cover. Understanding of the influence of post‐deforestation land cover change on fires in Amazonia is limited, even though fires in cleared lands constitute a threat for ecosystems, agriculture, and human health. We used MODIS satellite data to map burned areas annually between 2001 and 2010. We then combined these maps with land cover and climate information to understand the influence of land cover change in cleared lands and dry‐season severity on fire occurrence and spread in a focus area in the Peruvian Amazon. Fire occurrence, quantified as the probability of burning of individual 232‐m spatial resolution MODIS pixels, was modeled as a function of the area of land cover types within each pixel, drought severity, and distance to roads. Fire spread, quantified as the number of pixels burned in 3 × 3 pixel windows around each focal burned pixel, was modeled as a function of land cover configuration and area, dry‐season severity, and distance to roads. We found that vegetation regrowth and oil palm expansion are significantly correlated with fire occurrence, but that the magnitude and sign of the correlation depend on drought severity, successional stage of regrowing vegetation, and oil palm age. Burning probability increased with the area of nondegraded pastures, fallow, and young oil palm and decreased with larger extents of degraded pastures, secondary forests, and adult oil palm plantations. Drought severity had the strongest influence on fire occurrence, overriding the effectiveness of secondary forests, but not of adult plantations, to reduce fire occurrence in severely dry years. Overall, irregular and scattered land cover patches reduced fire spread but irregular and dispersed fallows and secondary forests increased fire spread during dry years. Results underscore the importance of land cover management for reducing fire proliferation in this landscape. Incentives for promoting natural regeneration and perennial crops in cleared lands might help to reduce fire risk if those areas are protected against burning in early stages of development and during severely dry years.}, journal={Ecological Applications}, author={Gutiérrez-Vélez, Víctor H. and Uriarte, María and DeFries, Ruth and Pinedo-Vásquez, Miguel and Fernandes, Katia and Ceccato, Pietro and Baethgen, Walter and Padoch, Christine}, year={2014}, month={Sep} }
 @article{what controls the interannual variation of the wet season onsets over the amazon?_2014, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2013jd021349}, DOI={10.1002/2013jd021349}, abstractNote={Abstract}, journal={Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres}, year={2014}, month={Mar} }
 @article{increased dry-season length over southern amazonia in recent decades and its implication for future climate projection_2013, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1302584110}, DOI={10.1073/pnas.1302584110}, abstractNote={Significance}, journal={Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, year={2013}, month={Nov} }
 @article{depopulation of rural landscapes exacerbates fire activity in the western amazon_2012, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1215567110}, DOI={10.1073/pnas.1215567110}, abstractNote={Destructive fires in Amazonia have occurred in the past decade, leading to forest degradation, carbon emissions, impaired air quality, and property damage. Here, we couple climate, geospatial, and province-level census data, with farmer surveys to examine the climatic, demographic, and land use factors associated with fire frequency in the Peruvian Amazon from 2000 to 2010. Although our results corroborate previous findings elsewhere that drought and proximity to roads increase fire frequency, the province-scale analysis further identifies decreases in rural populations as an additional factor. Farmer survey data suggest that increased burn scar frequency and size reflect increased flammability of emptying rural landscapes and reduced capacity to control fire. With rural populations projected to decline, more frequent drought, and expansion of road infrastructure, fire risk is likely to increase in western Amazonia. Damage from fire can be reduced through warning systems that target high-risk locations, coordinated fire fighting efforts, and initiatives that provide options for people to remain in rural landscapes.}, journal={Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, year={2012}, month={Dec} }
 @article{roseghini_mendonça_ceccato_fernandes_2011, title={DENGUE EPIDEMICS IN MIDDLE-SOUTH OF BRAZIL: CLIMATE CONSTRAINTS AND SOME SOCIAL ASPECTS}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.5380/abclima.v9i0.27522}, DOI={10.5380/abclima.v9i0.27522}, abstractNote={A dengue é atualmente um dos mais graves problemas de saúde pública em todo o mundo. É uma doença do mundo tropical, no qual a maioria da América Latina está localizada e onde o ambiente e o clima proporcionam condições ideais para o mosquito Aedes (aegypti e albopictus) para prosperar. Além disso, o ambiente sócio-cultural (urbanização e estilo de vida) e a ineficácia das políticas públicas de saúde, resultam em graves epidemias da doença. Esta pesquisa tem como analise a incidência de dengue em três diferentes cidades do Brasil: Campo Grande / MS, Maringá / PR e Ribeirão Preto / SP e sua relação estatística com o clima, correlacionando variáveis climáticas diferentesde incidência da doença. A análise da temperatura diária também mostra correlação significativa (R = 0,70 e P> 0,99) com os registros da doença e um atraso 7 dias. Além do clima e factores ambientais, a mobilidade da população em relação aos casos importados também foi investigada. Os resultados mostram a complexidade da doença, em uma relação estreita entre o ambiente (clima) e a mobilidade da população, a circulação de differente sorotipos, a eliminação de resíduos sólidos, entulho e piscinas abandonadas, o que coloca a própria população em situações de risco e vulnerabilidade à doença. Um ponto importante a destacar é que, mesmo em cidades diferentes, a epidemia seguiu um padrão semelhante, enfatizando a importância das variáveis climáticas. Este estudo mostra importantes relações entre as epidemias de dengue e clima, embora estudos mais detalhados sobre ambos sorotipo e transmissão nas cidades são necessários para melhor entender os fatores por trás da transmissão da doença. Nossos resultados podem ajudar as agências de saúde locais na implementação adequada de alerta precoce a partir de sistemas de monitoramento e ações preventivas de controle de condições de ambientais.}, journal={Revista Brasileira de Climatologia}, author={Roseghini, Wilson Flavio Feltrim and Mendonça, Francisco and Ceccato, Pietro and Fernandes, Katia}, year={2011}, month={Dec} }
 @article{high-yield oil palm expansion spares land at the expense of forests in the peruvian amazon_2011, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044029}, DOI={10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044029}, abstractNote={Abstract}, journal={Environmental Research Letters}, year={2011}, month={Jan} }
 @article{north tropical atlantic influence on western amazon fire season variability_2011, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2011gl047392}, DOI={10.1029/2011gl047392}, abstractNote={The prevailing wet climate in the western Amazon is not favorable to the natural occurrence of fires. Nevertheless, the current process of clearing of humid forests for agriculture and cattle ranching has increased the vulnerability of the region to the spread of fires. Using meteorological stations precipitation and the Moderate Resolution Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Active‐Fires (AF) during 2000–2009, we show that fire anomalies vary closely with July‐August‐September (JAS) precipitation variability as measured by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The precipitation variability is, in turn, greatly determined by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA). We develop a linear regression model to relate local fire activity to an index of the NTA‐SST. By using seasonal forecasts of SST from a coupled model, we are able to predict anomalous JAS fire activity as early as April. We applied the method to predict the severe 2010 JAS season, which indicated strongly positive seasonal fire anomalies within the 95% prediction confidence intervals in most western Amazon. The spatial distribution of predicted SPI was also in accordance with observed precipitation anomalies. This three months lead time precipitation and fire prediction product in the western Amazon could help local decision makers to establish an early warning systems or other appropriate course of action before the fire season begins.}, journal={Geophysical Research Letters}, year={2011}, month={Jun} }
 @article{comparison of precipitation datasets over the tropical south american and african continents_2009, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2008jhm1023.1}, DOI={10.1175/2008jhm1023.1}, abstractNote={Abstract}, journal={Journal of Hydrometeorology}, year={2009}, month={Feb} }
 @article{impact of biomass burning aerosol on the monsoon circulation transition over amazonia_2009, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009gl037180}, DOI={10.1029/2009gl037180}, abstractNote={Ensemble simulations of a regional climate model (RegCM3) forced by aerosol radiative forcing suggest that biomass burning aerosols can work against the seasonal monsoon circulation transition, thus re‐enforce the dry season rainfall pattern for Southern Amazonia. Strongly absorbing smoke aerosols warm and stabilize the lower troposphere within the smoke center in southern Amazonia (where aerosol optical depth >0.3). These changes increase the surface pressure in the smoke center, weaken the southward surface pressure gradient between northern and southern Amazonia, and consequently induce an anomalous moisture divergence in the smoke center and an anomalous convergence in northwestern Amazonia (5°S‐5°N, 60°W‐70°W). The increased atmospheric thermodynamic stability, surface pressure, and divergent flow in Southern Amazonia may inhibit synoptic cyclonic activities propagated from extratropical South America, and re‐enforce winter‐like synoptic cyclonic activities and rainfall in southeastern Brazil, Paraguay and northeastern Argentina.}, journal={Geophysical Research Letters}, year={2009}, month={May} }
 @article{how well does the era40 surface water budget compare to observations in the amazon river basin?_2008, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2007jd009220}, DOI={10.1029/2007jd009220}, abstractNote={The surface water budget of the Amazon River basin derived from the ERA40 reanalysis is evaluated by comparing it with observed precipitation (P), streamflow/runoff (R), and evapotranspiration (ET) data sets for the period of 1980–2002. The rainfall is averaged over 90% of the Amazon River basin, corresponding to the catchments of the Óbidos and Altamira streamflow gauges. The annual rainfall and the interannual changes from ERA40 fall within the range of the two precipitation data sets. On the seasonal timescale, ERA40 reproduces well the rainfall during the dry and transition seasons, but it underestimates the wet season rainfall by 4–11% when compared with the two precipitation data sets. On the subbasin scale, the disparity in precipitation between ERA40 and observations is as much as ±40%. The annual runoff integrated over the two catchments is underestimated in ERA40 by 25%. The rain‐rates in ERA40, which affect both throughfall and runoff, are comparable to those measured by the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM 3B42V6), when these are rescaled to the resolution of the 2.5° ERA40 data. However, even the native resolution of ERA40 (∼1.125°) is greater than the scale of tropical convection. ET in ERA40 appears to be higher than observations by about 20%, although observed ET may have a 10% low bias. The difference between precipitation and runoff, P‐R, in ERA40 generally agrees with observations. However, annual ERA40 ET is greater than P‐R, because soil moisture nudging adds water to the soil. On the seasonal scale, soil moisture nudging is largest during the dry season, because ERA40 provides only a 45 mm surplus of P‐R relative to ET during the wet season, whereas the deficit in the dry season is almost four times greater. This low bias in wet season soil moisture recharge may be caused by the underestimation of wet season rainfall in ERA40. It is possible that the model interception may have a high bias, which contributes to the high ET in the rainy season and reduces the wet season storage.}, journal={Journal of Geophysical Research}, year={2008}, month={Jun} }
 @article{observed change of the standardized precipitation index, its potential cause and implications to future climate change in the amazon region_2008, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2007.0022}, DOI={10.1098/rstb.2007.0022}, abstractNote={
            Observations show that the standard precipitation index (SPI) over the southern Amazon region decreased in the period of 1970–1999 by 0.32 per decade, indicating an increase in dry conditions. Simulations of constant pre-industrial climate with recent climate models indicate a low probability (
            p
            =0%) that the trends are due to internal climate variability. When the 23 models are forced with either anthropogenic factors or both anthropogenic and external natural factors, approximately 13% of sampled 30-year SPI trends from the models are found to be within the range of the observed SPI trend at 95% confidence level. This suggests a possibility of anthropogenic and external forcing of climate change in the southern Amazon. On average, the models project no changes in the frequency of occurrence of low SPI values in the future; however, those models which produce more realistic SPI climatology, variability and trend over the period 1970–1999 show more of a tendency towards more negative values of SPI in the future. The analysis presented here suggests a potential anthropogenic influence on Amazon drying, which warrants future, more in-depth, study.
          }, journal={Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences}, year={2008}, month={May} }